Division III Tennis

2012 Season Preview: 10 Matches to Watch

2012-01-11T18:15:00.000-08:00

Feb 12: NC Wesleyan @ Kenyon - An early season match where both teams have something to prove. There is a 4-team round robin happening in Gambier this weekend, but the two top teams there know this is the most important match. NCW is still looking for a signature win over a top 8 program in an attempt to take them to the next level. Their weak doubles will be tested against disciplined Lords team in a hostile environment. Kenyon is trying to prove that last year was no fluke, and they look for a big win and momentum boost against a team projected to be just on the outskirts of the top 10. If Kenyon loses, they could be doubting themselves heading to Indoors.

Feb 24: Santa Cruz vs. Trinity TX - The second year in a row these 2 will meet in the first round of Indoors, and the second year in a row it makes my list of top matches of the season. I can't hype up the importance of this match enough for Cruz. Trinity is a team the Slugs have absolutely dominated for the past 10 years. Bob Hansen is now gone and people are questioning whether this will be the same team. Both programs are known for getting better as the season progresses, but if you're Cruz and you lose this match, it's just a crushing blow to the program as a whole, it means you're not what you used to be. Trinity has a lot less on the line as the clear underdog, but a win would help a lot as the Tigers had some serious issues with being clutch last season.

Feb 25: Carnegie Mellon @ DePauw - An unusual early season match for 2 Pool C hopefuls on Indoors weekend. While the winner is not guaranteed a spot in the tournament, I'm fairly confident when I say the loser puts themselves in a huge hole when it comes to making the tournament. These 2 have had some interesting matches over the years but it seems to me DePauw gets the better of the Tartans more often than not. CMU is looking to bounce back from a terrible year last year and right the ship after their spectacular 2010 campaign. This is probably DPU's best team in a while and they hope to find their way back into the top 10 in the country, something that has eluded them the past couple years.

Mar 22: Johns Hopkins @ Emory - I'm circling this match for Hopkins because they will be in form and we will see what they're really made of. Prior to their meeting with Emory, the Blue Jays will have matches against NCW and the Stag-Hen Invite under their belt. I don't even remember the last time Emory has lost a D3 match at home, so obviously it will be a tall task for Hopkins to win. JHU came close last year, but with all of their recruits, if they really think they can win a national title, this is the type of match they have to start winning. While the Eagles may have been slightly overconfident heading into last year's match with Hop, I'm sure they wont overlook the Blue Jays this year.

Mar 23: Williams @ CMS - CMS bounced back from their loss in 2010 NCAAs and beat Amherst during the regular season last year. Can they bounce back from the Williams loss in 2011 NCAAs and do the same? This is a tough 2-day stretch for the Stags as the have the Jeffs the following day. I'm sure emotions will be high during this match as both sides will remember the epic quarterfinal from last May. Williams is often rusty early in the season and I think it will be tough for them to pull this one out, but a win on the road early in the season against CMS could mean a lot for potential NCAA seeding and more importantly, the Ephs' confidence.

Mar 24: Amherst @ CMS - The 2 best teams facing off in beautiful Claremont, what could be better? Similar to last season, the Stags will have just finished the Stag-Hen Invite and Amherst will be just starting this season, which we have decided doesn't really mean anything anymore. Amherst won this match 2 years ago and lost fairly comfortably last year, so the result is unpredictable. The thing that separates these 2 from their competition is depth, and the fact that both teams boast 4 players who could be playing #1 on almost any other top 10 team. I think this match will end up coming down to doubles, but whoever wins will have this win in the back of their mind heading when NCAAs roll around.

Apr 14: Bowdoin @ Middlebury - The annual match where the NESCAC pretenders and contenders will be separated. Both teams are fairly young, and the last time the Polar Bears beat Midd was the 2008 NESCAC final. We will see if Midd and their new coach can continue to assert their dominance over the consistent NESCAC #4, and on the contrary, as I said many times last year, we will see if Bowdoin can avoid the typical Bowdoin season. Last year's NCAA Sweet 16 loss to Midd was Bowdoin's program in a nutshell. Good but not quite good enough. As the years pass I'm sure the Polar Bears are anxious to shake this title, especially with a new coach on board. This young and scrappy Bowdoin team is underrated and hoping to make a name for themselves.

Apr 15: Wash U @ Chicago - A rematch of one of the biggest upsets of the 2011 season. The match last year was the first time since their national title season that Wash U had lost to a non-top 10 opponent, and at the same time, it was Chicago's first ever win against a top 10 opponent. Chicago had a mini-breakthrough year last year as they finally made NCAAs under the new system, but the real question is if they can keep it going. The Maroons have a lot of firepower and just like last year, this Bears team seems vulnerable. Both squads will be winding down their seasons and looking ahead to the UAA championships, but this match could have a lot of impact on NCAA seeding just as it did last year.

Apr 22: Pomona-Pitzer @ Redlands - I don't think anyone but Pomona-Pitzer expected them to do what they did last year, with conference rival Redlands included. It seems as though these 2 switched roles last year as Redlands had chances to beat PP and salvage their season, but they were unable to do so. The reason this match makes this list is because the rest of the country is curious as to whether PP being the #2 team in the SCIAC is the new normal or just a one time thing. Redlands is very hungry to get back to NCAAs, and more importantly to be taken seriously once again. PP is hoping to prove that their 2011 season was not a fluke and they look to move toward CMS rather than moving backward and becoming another face in the crowd.

Apr 28: Amherst @ Middlebury - On the West Coast, the thorn in Bob Hansen's side was CMS, at least in recent years. On the East Coast, it's going to be Amherst. The puzzling thing about Hansen's move is if he's doing it for a better opportunity, why would you move into the conference with the clear best team in the country? At this point in the season, Amherst will begin to peak and that spells trouble for an inferior Middlebury team. That being said, if Midd can somehow pull the upset, it could be huge for NCAA seeding and the Panthers confidence as well. This match will feature what are probably the 2 best coaches in the country at the moment and hopefully this will be the first of many great clashes to come with Garner and Hansen in the same conference.

2012 Pre-Season Rankings

2011-12-26T13:57:00.000-08:00

1. Amherst - They may not go undefeated in the regular season but it doesn't matter. They are the best team and have shown they will raise their game in May. The Jeffs will win the national title if they play like they have the past three seasons. This team is loaded top to bottom and has no weaknesses. Anything can happen on any given day, but I just don't see them losing.

2. CMS - The only team who can seriously threaten Amherst in my opinion. They have a reputation for choking in May, but their top 4 is as good as its ever been this year. The Stags are hungry to finally break through and get to the national title match, but they have to be careful not to wear themselves out during the regular season, which I think may play a part in their postseason collapses.

3. Emory - You know what you're going to get from their top 2, but its their freshmen that will determine how good this team is. With the best 2 players in the country its hard to rank them at 3, but they aren't as deep as the top 2. They still have the intimidation factor going in their favor and I'd be surprised if they don't make the Final 4. They would have to get lucky to win it all.

4. Williams - 4 through 10 in these rankings I consider even, but I'm giving the edge to the Ephs for now due to their great postseason and fall season. They have some great players at the top and are deep and last year's young team managed to finish 4th in NCAAs. They, and their coach, are a year older and will use that experience to hopefully find their way back to the Final 4.

5. Wash U - On paper, they probably aren't the 5th best team in the country, but I really like the Bears intangibles. They are a fairly inexperienced team, but no matter what team they put on the court, they always manage a respectable performance. Beating Emory and their 5th straight Final 4 aren't out of reach, but just like last year, I don't think they have enough talent to win it all.

6. Middlebury - Another very young team, and I have the feeling most of the country isn't all that familiar with their roster. I'll be interested to see what kind of impact Hansen's coaching will have on their team because they certainly have a lot of talent. The Peters loss is tough to weigh at the moment. One sure thing is that the ultra-competitive NESCAC will test them and they will come to play in May.

7. UC Santa Cruz - A massive match to begin their season against Trinity (TX), and it will define this year's team. Can they win without Hansen is the question on everyone's mind. Their coaching staff remains excellent and they have a great team despite losing Pybas. I don't see them as a serious threat to CMS this season, but I'd also be very surprised if they dropped out of the top 8 in the country.

8. Kenyon - They overachieved in '11 and underachieved in '10, so if they revert to the mean this is about where they are in '12. They lose their top player, but some good recruits should keep them as a dominant force and a top 10 team. I can see them being as high as 4th, but historically they haven't been able to get past the Final 8 and beat the top teams. A well-rounded team that's still young.

9. Johns Hopkins - They have so much talent, no amount of choking will cause them to lose to a team outside the top 10. Or so we think. They have yet to get past the Sweet 16 and their postseason collapses have turned into a running joke. I think they will have a strong regular season and are a threat against anyone in the country, but no one cares about anything but NCAAs when it comes to JHU.

10. Pomona-Pitzer - Probably overachieved in '11, but this is still a good team who will be a tough out this season. Unfortunately they didn't win their most important matches of the season, but I can see them giving Cruz a run this year. As always they play a loaded schedule that will give them plenty of opportunities against the big boys, but they need to save something for May.

11. NC Wesleyan - As always, kind of a wildcard in all of this. They predicted national titles for themselves, but they haven't moved into the top echelon of teams yet. They have definitely established the program as a perennial top 15 team, but that signature win still eludes them. This season is another opportunity as I believe this strength of this team is overlooked due to their poor doubles in the past.

12. Trinity (TX) - Don't have quite the firepower they did last year, but still a respectable team with top players and depth. It would take a big time effort to get back to the Final 8 for the 3rd year in a row, but if anyone has the heart to do it its these guys. A good mix of youth and experience and if they field a strong doubles lineup like they usually do, anything can happen with the 9-pt system.

13. DePauw - They are switching conferences and I believe they are entering this season with high expectations after a somewhat disappointing last couple seasons. Last year they were better then their ranking while going through a coaching change and I expect them to pick up their level and challenge Kenyon for the conference title. This is a sleeper who could cause an upset if they get to NCAAs.

14. Chicago - A new coach, who is a female I might add, but still the same talent and high expectations. They had their best season in program history last year but still couldn't break through to the Final 8. I don't think they are quite as strong as last year, but they still remain a contender to make NCAAs and could give Wash U and Emory a hard time. Still up in the air on this team, hard to predict what they'll do.

15. Redlands - Probably don't deserve to be 15, but it seems like they always end up around here and they had a deep recruiting class after losing some key players. I see them as a distant 4th best team in California who will once again be on the brink for NCAAs. The difference between the past 2 seasons and all the other ones is they haven't been able to pull out their most important matches recently.

The Rest: Bowdoin, Carnegie Mellon, Case Western, Cal Lutheran, Mary Washington, Trinity (CT), MIT, Rhodes, Bates, Whitewater, Whitman, Gustavus, Tufts, Brandeis, Tyler, Skidmore, Vassar, Washington & Lee

Future of This Blog

2011-11-12T07:41:00.000-08:00

I'm writing this post now because I was thinking about tennis this morning for the first time in a very long time. And that is a big part of the problem. Everyone I played with in D3 has now graduated and I began to lose interest toward the end of last season. It became a chore and that shouldn't happen. Couple that with a 65 hour work week and I cannot maintain the quality that I once did. I have some free time today for the first time in a long time and I'm going to take a look at spring schedules and put a calendar together as I always do and potentially throw some rankings together.

The point is that a change needs to be made and I have a couple potential solutions. I'd ask for reader feedback via email to decide what's best. I began this blog so that it would be a source of information for everything you need to know about D3 tennis. I want it to stay that way and I want to pick the best solution so the content doesn't slip.

1. Rather than posting 5-6 times a week during the season as I used to, I turn that into 1-2 times a week and attempt to stay up to date on everything. Posting every day just isn't realistic and I would basically post whenever I have time. Some weeks that may be 4 times and other weeks that may be 0 times.

2. I get contributions from others. This means match previews, match recaps, team updates, etc. You could be anonymous or have your name attached. Obviously I'm not going to pay anyone, but I think I have enough of a reader base that this is possible. I would be a stickler about what gets posted so I'm obviously editing what you write for grammar and any content that I'd consider derogatory toward a team and/or player.

3. The tennisd3 blog becomes the main blog and I submit content to him whenever I can. I have issues with this because for the past 2 years, that blogger has disappeared for weeks at a time during the season.

4. I give 3 or 4 trustworthy people access to the email account and this blog and they take it over. I submit content whenever I can. I get a high volume of emails which I try to answer. That would be part of the job as well.

Revisiting Top 10 Stories of 2011

2011-06-02T18:32:00.001-07:00

10. NCAA Selection Process - In Pool C, things were more clear cut this year with Bowdoin clearly deserving of the last spot. Teams were left out, but most likely none of the teams left out would have made a true impact in the tournament. Also, we saw TCNJ and Whitewater advance to the Sweet 16, and under the old process where the top 32 teams were picked based upon ranking, it is likely that neither team would have made the tournament.

9. Can Chicago play to their talent? - Baby steps. The Maroons took it to the next level this year and at least made the tournament. They entered as a top seed after a good regular season win against Wash U, but faltered in their most important match of the season against Trinity (TX). I wouldn't say Chicago actually played to their talent, but they certainly took a large leap forward and improved upon their performance in past years.

8. CLU and CMU - One-hit wonders? - Absolutely. A large step backward for both programs this year, as Cal Lu struggled with the bottom of their lineup and CMU struggled with everything. Even with Ballou, the Kingsmen were not true contenders, and CMU faltered after a promising Indoors performance. We will see if these 2 can rebound, but they certainly did not use the momentum and experience they gained in 2010 to help them in 2011.

7. Former powerhouses become non-factors - Kalamazoo fell very far this year, but Gustavus was actually a pleasant surprise. Kzoo kept their conference winning streak alive and qualified for the tournament, but they weren't very competitive with the strongest teams on their schedule. GAC took back their conference and turned in a spirited performance in the NCAA tournament in a tight loss to Trinity (TX), which was a big boost for their team.

6. A rebuilding year for Kenyon? Couldn't have been more wrong about this. Coach Thielke was robbed of national coach of the year honors after the Lords turned in an incredible season. They lost 4 starters from a team ranked 12, added 1 freshman, and will finish ranked 7 most likely. That's unbelievable and they should be just as good, if not better, next year. Along with Pomona-Pitzer, the biggest surprise of the year for me.

5. Can Hopkins perform in the post-season? What a mess. It's not that they lost to Williams, it's how they lost to Williams. This team gave Emory by far their toughest match of the regular season and they got hammered in NCAAs. It's in their heads at this point, it's not about their play. They just don't show up in May and no one will take them seriously as a top national power until they do.

4. How far will the best 2 players in the country take you? Very far, but not far enough. Emory's top 2 met in the NCAA singles final, but Goodwin was cracked in the team competition for the 2nd year in a row and Emory fell. They put together an amazing regular season, but anything but a national title for Emory is unacceptable. These 2 will return next year and we'll pose the same question, but the supporting case may not be strong enough.

3. Midd minus Schwarz, Wash U minus Watts - Midd had their weakest season in quite a while as they will most likely finish 8 or 9 after a quarterfinal loss. They were young and missing their top recruit, so they actually had a good season in my eyes. Wash U made their 4 straight Final 4, but they measure themselves against Emory, and the Bears lost to the Eagles 3 times this year, going a combined 1-10 in singles.

2. Indoors leaves Gustavus - A wonderful job by Mary Washington putting on this tournament and UMW even got a big win out of it. The Cal Lu victory was a huge win for UMW and there were also some of the top matches of the season at this tournament including CLU-CMU and Wash U-Cruz. I hope that UMW will retain this tournament for the next several years because it's a necessary event to start the season.

1. Third time is the charm - Amherst did it, and they did it convincingly. They wanted it more than everyone else and cruised through the draw to take the title after having been beaten badly the last 2 finals. Amherst really goes through the motions during the regular season, but they come to play in May. They dominated all 3 opponents and were basically untouchable for those 3 days. They look to make it 2 in a row as they return all 6 singles starters.

Season Recap

2011-06-02T10:12:00.001-07:00

Will begin Thursday evening. Check back Sunday night for everything.

Breaking Down the Final

2011-05-25T19:34:00.000-07:00

A dream final tomorrow between the 2 best teams in the country. They both deserve to be here and something has to give. Amherst has been to 3 consecutive finals, but the past 2 times they were up against a superior team. Now, they are up against an equivalent team and need to grind out a win. Something has to give tomorrow and many will remember the epic quarterfinal these 2 teams played last year. Emory swept doubles and ended up losing, and I'm pretty sure that is the only time in the 5 years of the 9-point system that's happened to Emory.

Chris Goodwin's only D3 singles loss in his 3 year career was to Mark Kahan last year. Those 2 will meet tomorrow. Dillon Pottish's only D3 singles loss in his 2 year career was to Austin Chafetz last year. Pottish, Goodwin and Egan are now a combined 43-0 this year in singles play. If all 3 of them win, that means Amherst needs 5 of the 6 remaining matches, a very tall task against an Emory team with a very formidable 1 and 3 doubles team and a not too shabby bottom of the lineup either. Amherst desperately needs 2 of the doubles matches. The other thing that's interesting to me is that Moritz Koenig isn't starting singles. I think it's a questionable to move to bench your senior captain who pretty much single handedly took you to the final last year with 2 ridiculous wins. He would be up against Noah Simonson tomorrow, the same player he beat last year to clinch the match against Emory. No disrespect to Andrew Jung, I just think it's a shocker Koenig is not in the lineup.

If Amherst gets up 2-1, it's anyone's match. But to beat Emory, you have 2 choices: get up in doubles or beat their top 2. Neither of those is easy, but the first is easier. Emory has done a great job winning close doubles matches this year, see the CMS match and today. You can't count on getting down in dubs and then winning 3 through 6 against the Eagles, so Amherst needs to start well and grab the lead.

I like Herst to win at 1 and 2 doubles, and I think Chafetz steps up tomorrow and gets a win against Egan, couple with wins at 4 and 6 to give Amherst the title in a really close 5-3 or 5-4. It really is anyone's match, but doubles is the key for both teams because of the depth and quality of both singles lineups.

My Picks

2011-05-21T09:32:00.001-07:00

I'm going to break down each match the next few days but for now...my picks.

Emory d. Middlebury 5-1
Wash U d. Kenyon 5-1
Amherst d. Trinity (TX) 5-1
CMS d. Williams 5-2

Emory d. Wash U 5-2
Amherst d. CMS 5-3

CMS d. Wash U 5-1

Amherst d. Emory 5-4

General Quarterfinal Discussion

2011-05-21T08:23:00.000-07:00

In my opinion, four lopsided quarterfinals and three teams who can potentially win it all. A lot of good storylines here, headlined by CMS trying to win the national title on their home court. They have an opener against Williams, which is a team with a very similar make-up to CMS. The Stags just do everything a little bit better than Williams. In the semifinal, potentially awaiting CMS is Amherst, the 2-time defending NCAA runner-up. The Jeffs desperately want that national title and traditionally have played their best tennis in May. In the way for Amherst is Trinity (TX), appearing in their 2nd consecutive Elite 8. They had high expectations entering this season and didn't really meet them, but they find themselves still playing and have a lot of experienced players. On the other half of the bracket, the clear favorite to advance to the championship match is Emory, who enters as the #1 seed and has strung together an undefeated regular season. Their top 3 singles players are undefeated in D3 play and they are very focused on winning their first national title since 2006. They take on defending national champion Middlebury, who only returns 1 starter from last year's team and is very young. They finished 3rd in NESCAC after winning the conference several years in a row. The last quarterfinal pits Wash U against Kenyon, and I don't see either of these teams as a true threat to win the title. Wash U is looking for their 4th consecutive Final 4 appearance and Kenyon is back in the Final 8 after a one-year hiatus.

I think it would be great to see semis between Emory-Wash U and CMS-Amherst. That has the best current rivalry in D3 along with a match between two unbelievable teams. When you look at the top 3, it really is anyone's tournament to win. This will be about who wants it the most and who executes, because talent wise there is not a large difference.

Sweet 16 Results and Brief Thoughts

2011-05-18T20:37:00.001-07:00

Emory d. NC Wesleyan 5-0
Emory did what they had to do and got through the regional, but at the same time I'm disappointed in NCW's doubles. They were just outclassed in doubles and an interesting stat is the last 5 times they stepped on the court with a top 10 opponent, they are a combined 1-14 in doubles. That's just not going to get it done, no matter how strong your singles play is. They will never get above that 9-12 range playing doubles like this, so their coaches and players have to go back to the drawing board for next season. Obviously they hung with Emory in singles which was a good accomplishment, but no one in the country can come back from a doubles sweep against Emory this year. As a final note, W&L's Will Hall played in the regional semifinal against NCW and won his doubles match, giving W&L it's only point in a 5-1 loss. An unbelievable performance and comeback from Hall. Emory moves on to the Final 8 and is certainly a top 3 favorite, if not the top favorite.

Middlebury d. Bowdoin 5-2
Another case of two even teams and Midd getting the doubles sweep. You can't win after getting swept in doubles and even though Bowdoin played tough in singles, Midd hung on for the win. Certain programs just know how to win no matter who's on their team, and Midd is one of them. Bowdoin has their typical season, as they just can't manage to get over the hump. Steve Sullivan had a fantastic career, but Peters one upped-him in this match and made the score 4-2 instead of 3-3, a very big difference. Coach Barr did a good job with this year's Midd team, although they would need an incredible effort to top Emory. I liked Bowdoin's chances in the round of 16 after they crushed a good MIT team, and I bet the Engineers wish they were put in a different regional. Midd gets the job done to return to their 10th straight Elite 8.

Kenyon d. Mary Wash 5-1
As expected, not too much mystery here. A good win for Mary Wash against Kalamazoo to get them back the the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2008, but they just didn't have enough to beat Kenyon. The Lords swept doubles and things were just about over after that. Kevin Ye lost twice for Kenyon which was uncharacteristic, and they can't afford that to happen in the quarterfinal against Wash U. Kenyon was rewarded for their fantastic season with this easy regional and they have a great shot to make their first ever Final 4. On another note, I personally thought Coach Thielke got robbed, as Marty Perry won Central Region Coach of the Year. Thielke did an unbelievable job putting Kenyon as high as #6 this year and I thought he not only deserved regional honors, but also national.

Wash U d. Whitewater 5-1
Wash U was just a little too talented for Whitewater and that showed, although I think the Warhawks should be very proud of what they accomplished in this regional. A win over Whitman and a Sweet 16 appearance was a wonderful accomplishment. They also had to be pleased taking a point from Wash U in doubles. A disappointing end to an interesting season for Whitman, who got their wish to be shipped out of California and didn't take advantage of it. The inability to attract top recruits shows when Whitman plays talented teams, but I feel as though Whitewater is a team they should be beating. I'm not quite sure what happened to them in that match, but I'm sure that had to be a very tough loss. For Wash U to really make a splash in NCAAs, they will need to play great doubles, as their flaws have shown this year. They come in as the 4th seed, but I don't see them as a serious threat to win it all.

Trinity TX d. Chicago 5-2
I criticized the Tigers singles, but this is what got them through to the Final 8, which is exactly where they belong. They had a real war against Gustavus which they were lucky to get through, but that can be expected against a team that fights as hard as the Gusties. I was worried about their singles heading into the Sweet 16 match because they struggled against a Gustavus team that hasn't done much in singles this year. Chicago went down 2-1 in singles against Grinnell, but I attributed that to first time NCAA nerves. They showed their muscles in singles and I liked their chances heading into the regional final after Trinity's grueling match. Seeing Chicago take 2 of 3 doubles against Trinity was a shocker, and I honestly thought they were well on their way to victory after the doubles points. I think Trinity found that will that Chicago didn't have and took it to another level. They were able to use their experience of being there before to propel them to easy wins before Chicago could get on the board. Trinity enters the Final 8 much like last year: with nothing to lose. Chicago has to be happy with their season because this was a step in the right direction.

Amherst d. TCNJ 5-0
Amherst rolls without dropping a point as expected. Not too much else to say. The Jeffs are very focused heading into the Final 8 and have their eyes on the prize. I really like Amherst's chances and I'm sticking with my preseason pick. A great win for TCNJ against Skidmore and it was actually the only 5-4 match all weekend. They got revenge for a loss to Skidmore a couple weeks ago and had to learn a lot after playing Amherst. TCNJ's second Sweet 16 in 4 years and that's a great accomplishment for a program that doesn't get much national attention. Skidmore is up there when it comes to most disappointing teams this season. I thought they had a lot of talent but they were never able to put it all together. They did take back the conference from Vassar, but they have to expect much more from themselves than that.

Williams d. Johns Hopkins 5-0
Hopkins disliked the speed of the indoor courts at Williams, but you have to deal with what's thrown at you and Hopkins couldn't do it in the postseason as usual. Another solid season and poor ending for Hopkins who turns in their usual performance. They didn't just lose in this match, they got crushed. A really good win for Williams to get back to the Final 8. I would like their chances if they weren't playing CMS. The Ephs took care of business and hope to extend their season in a tough environment.

CMS d. Cruz 5-3
Unbelievable stuff from both teams. Cruz took that 2-1 doubles lead as I expected, but CMS used their advantage in talent to come back and win the overall match. Robbie Erani and Alex Johnson were the real heroes today, as they both came back from huge holes to turn the match in the Stags favor. It's the 2nd year in a row when Cruz has blown match points in the regional final. Last year I believe it was a doubles match. The Stags showed a ton of mental toughness and I love their chances at the Final 8 now after this confidence boost. Cruz has to be disappointed with this loss, especially on their home court, now having CMS go to the Final 8 2 years in a row out of the West.

Analysis on the way...

NCAA Updates

2011-05-14T14:04:00.000-07:00

Emory d. Grove City 5-0
NCW d. W&L 5-1

Bowdoin d. MIT 5-0
Midd d. Stevens 5-1

Kenyon d. Ohio Northern 5-1
Mary Wash d. Kzoo 5-1

Wash U d. Luther 5-0
Whitewater d. Whitman 5-2

Amherst d. Roger Williams 5-0
TCNJ d. Skidmore 5-4

Chicago d. Grinnell 5-2
Trinity (TX) d. GAC 5-3

CMS d. Cruz 5-3

Williams d. Farmingdale 5-0
Hopkins d. Vassar 5-1

Regional Preview: Cruz

2011-05-13T09:50:00.001-07:00

The one thing Cruz cannot do is overlook Pomona-Pitzer. I think they are too well-coached to do that though, so I like the Slugs to take care of business fairly comfortable. An amazing season for the Hens, but as usual I think this is going to be about Cruz and CMS. On CMS’ side of the bracket, Tyler can play as shown by their win against Whitman, but they don’t have the personnel to win more than a match against CMS. The showdown on Saturday should be a great one.

The shocking thing about Cruz’s win against CMS during the regular season was not that they won, but they did so after being down 2-1. I don’t see that happening again, especially with Erani back in the lineup for the Stags. I like 1 to Cruz and 2 to CMS, and that 3 doubles match will be a huge swing point. Singles is just about even with the exception of a CMS edge at 6. These 2 have played some fantastic matches throughout the years and I expect another one, but I can’t remember a time when the Stags won against Cruz on the road. On paper, I think it’s clear that CMS is the better team, but coaching and home court can’t really be measured and my gut tells me that Pybas and Koenig feed off the home court energy and put the team on their backs in this one. I really like their chances of getting 4 points for their team and I don’t normally pick against “the better team,” but I’m going to do it here. Cruz has had a lot of great players, but Pybas has to be up there with the best and I’m sure he wants to go out in style. CMS desperately wants a shot at the national title on their home courts, but knowing these 2 programs, I feel like UCSC just has that ability to dig deeper. They know how to win grinding matches and that’s exactly what this is going to be. I’ll go with Cruz 5-4 in an instant classic.

Regional Preview: Williams

2011-05-13T09:49:00.002-07:00

To me, this regional is the one to watch. Vassar had an okay season and I think their result against Hopkins will be similar to when the 2 teams played in early March. Hopkins wins 5-0 and may be tested in one of the doubles matches. Williams will post a similar result in their round of 32 setting up a blockbuster Sweet 16 match.

Both teams have very similar make-ups and that’s why I think this will be so interesting. The story here is about who can get over the hump mentally. Williams has a young coach who has done this as a player, but this is a very different spot compared to where they were last year. Last year, they slipped in the beginning of the season and that cost them an NCAA seeding, so they had to go on the road as an underdog and played Amherst tough before losing. This year they come in as the host and the favorite, but no one on the team has won a match of this magnitude before. They have to draw confidence from the Midd match in the NESCAC semifinal, but the Ephs haven’t exactly been super consistent this year. Again, I think there’s a lot of pressure on Dan Greenberg to produce after falling short last year. Honestly, I question the ability of both coaches to prepare their teams mentally for a match like this. It’s one thing if your team is significantly more talented and just has to go out and win, but these 2 are pretty much dead even. I think Hopkins has an edge in doubles, but Williams may have an edge deep in the singles lineup. Both teams are deep and good, but not incredible, at the top. Hopkins has to get over last year’s debacle as well as the TCNJ loss in 2008 which some of their guys remember very well. That’s not easy to do against a team like Williams on the road. I can’t bring myself to pick in favor of Hopkins in the tournament with their track record, so I’m going with Hopkins up 2-1 after doubles and Williams ends up winning 5-4 in a match that goes deep into the 3rd set. It’s going to be about who is mentally tougher and who wants it more.

Regional Preview: Washington & Lee

2011-05-13T09:49:00.001-07:00

I see W&L as a non-entity here. They are the hosts and they made the Sweet 16 last year, but I don’t see them as a serious threat. They lost one of their top players to injury and recently lost 6-3 against an unranked Oglethorpe team. NCW wins 5-0 or 5-1. The regional final should be a good one. Both teams aren’t happy about this match, especially Emory, who put together an undefeated D3 season so they could drive 8 hours and take on one of the toughest regional #2 seeds in the tournament. The good thing for the Eagles is I think they match up well against NCW. If you are going to beat Emory, you’ve got to get up in doubles or crack their top 2, and I don’t know if NCW has the capability to do either of those things. It takes a great 3 doubles team to beat Pottish/Egan and combine that with Emory’s top 2 and you have NCW needing to win 5 of the 6 remaining matches.

There’s a reason Emory’s 1 through 3 singles players are 37-0 this season and they will show that this weekend. NC Wes should come in confident because they are a good and dangerous team who could knock off some of the regional top seeds on a good day, but this is the top team in the country we are talking about. You have so little margin for error against Emory, and in the past when NCW has run into a top tier team, it hasn’t been pretty. One thing the Bishops can draw positives from is a 5-3 Sweet 16 match against Emory in 2009 that was very close. NCW will need to play inspired tennis to win this one and they may have to get a little lucky. I think they can take a doubles match and they are competitive at the 3 through 6 spots, but as I’ve said before, being competitive and winning are very different. I’ve talked about Emory’s focus all season and now is when they take it up a notch. I’m taking Emory 5-2 to advance to the Final 8.

Regional Preview: Middlebury

2011-05-13T09:48:00.000-07:00

Midd is looking for their 9th consecutive Elite 8, Bowdoin is looking to avoid the typical Bowdoin performance and MIT is looking for a breakthrough that is within reach. To begin, 2 solid New Jersey teams and an interesting story with MIT’s opponent, Hunter College.

Drew and Stevens face off for the right to play Middlebury and these are 2 teams who consistently win their conference and qualify for the tournament They always seem to be floating around the Northeast regions as 4th or 5th seeds, so a match win for either of them would be a good accomplishment for the programs. I don’t think either could pose any sort of threat to Middlebury. I’m pretty unfamiliar with both of these teams so I won’t make a prediction, but I will say Midd wins 5-0 in the round of 32. The best player in this region most likely plays for the 6th seed, Hunter. I was doing my research and noticed a familiar name in Yevgeny Perepelov as Hunter’s top player. Perepelov was a former top Eastern junior who won several matches at the Kalamazoo nationals and reached a Tennisrecruiting ranking of 27 in his class. I believe he took 3-4 years off and competed on the Futures circuit, and he is currently listed as a sophomore at Hunter. He hasn’t lost a match this year, so I’ll be interested to see how he does against MIT’s top player. Hunter doesn’t have much after him so I’ll go with the Engineers in a 5-0 win.

I’m assuming the committee placed MIT in this region rather than Amherst’s with the thought that they would rather be the 3 seed in the #8 overall team’s region versus the #2 seed in the #3 overall team’s region. Either way, Bowdoin is going to have their hands full with MIT. In the regular season match, the score was tied 4-4 and MIT led 5-1 in the 3rd set at #6 singles before Bowdoin came back to win. Granted, the Polar Bears were playing short handed that day and they are now back to full strength, but this is going to be a really good match. If MIT can get up in doubles, anything can happen, but I think Bowdoin is playing well right now and I like them to win 5-2.

Bowdoin’s typical season is to finish about where they did this year, qualify for the tournament and then lose to their regional top seed in the Sweet 16. Since Bowdoin’s NESCAC title run in 2008, they have not knocked off a top-notch team. They beat people below them and lose to teams above them. They are always dangerous, but they never seem to break through and make a Final 8. This is a great opportunity. Midd is fairly inexperienced, however they did beat Bowdoin in what I consider a comfortable 5-4 win during the season. Midd has done what they were supposed to do this season, but they are susceptible to an upset. Bowdoin has the firepower to take on the Panthers and I’m surprised more people in the poll haven’t picked Bowdoin. Bowdoin has the experience edge here, but I can’t pick them due to the track records of these teams. I’ll take Midd in a 5-3 win that goes down to the wire.

Regional Preview: Wash U

2011-05-10T21:14:00.000-07:00

Some interesting matches in this region, but obviously Wash U is the heavy favorite. An interesting note is that 4 of the 6 teams begin with W. Just thought that was a little funny.

I think Whitewater wins their first round easily. The other first round is an interesting match. Earlham ended Transylvania's 8 year streak of conference titles and is a team on the rise. They take on Luther, who won their 5th consecutive conference title and has previous NCAA experience. Luther's coach is in his last year, so they will definitely be playing for him. The Norse had what I consider a disappointing NCAA result last year also in St. Louis, when they lost to Kalamazoo 5-1 in a match that I thought was winnable for them. I'm sure they will have some built up fire after that result and take out Earlham by a 5-1 score.

Luther has the potential to give Wash U a hard time at some spots, but I think the Bears re-focused after getting destroyed by Emory in the UAA Final. They just crushed a very solid DePauw team and are looking to make a 4th consecutive run to the Final 4. Luther will give a great effort and make the Bears work, but I don't see them getting a match. Wash U will win 5-0 and advance to the round of 16. The Whitman-Whitewater contest is interesting. Whitman is up and down. They have a win over Trinity and loss to Tyler this season, and those happened within 5 days of each other. WC has a lot of talent on their team and is always a tough team to play. Whitewater beat Kalamazoo this year and gave Chicago a hard time. Both of those were early in the season and they haven't done a whole lot since. Even though they haven't had great results, Whitewater is a tough team and will make Whitman work for every match. The Whitties should be a little too solid and I see them beating Whitewater 5-3 in a match that features very close doubles matches and a couple 3-setters in singles.

Whitman has the personnel to play with Wash U, but winning matches and being close are 2 very different propositions. Wash U's whole team played NCAAs last year, and they remember their struggles in their round of 16 match against Kalamazoo when they went down 2-1 after doubles. Wash U is not a team that gives away anything, and as I said previously, I think the UAA loss to Emory really motivated them to get better. Whitman will hang, but they won't win. Both teams have solid doubles lineups and 2 of the 3 spots will probably come down to a few points here or there. I like Wash U to win those on their home court though. Whitman has solid players at the top of their lineup and this is also where Wash U is beatable. The Bears depth will pay off though and lead them to a victory. I expect a somewhat similar result to Whitman's match with Kenyon earlier this year. 5-1 Wash U and they advance to the quarterfinals.

Regional Preview: Kenyon

2011-05-10T20:31:00.000-07:00

As I discussed briefly yesterday, Kenyon could not have drawn up this bracket better. This is really a gift for them, but I won't say that it's not well deserved after their great season. The Lords are a heavy favorite to reach the quarterfinals, but they do have to get through 2 matches first. This bracket is eerily similar to the one Carnegie hosted last year with Mary Wash as a somewhat weak 2 seed and UT-Tyler as the 3 seed after a down year. Coincidentally, CMU was also the #5 overall seed in last year's tournament.

In the round of 32, Kenyon will most likely play Ohio Northern, who is actually a solid team that played a decent match against Denison early this season. I expect Kenyon to come out with a 5-0 win, but make a note that ONU is a team on the rise and could be flirting with the top 30 in a couple years if they keep improving at their current pace. The bottom half of the region is an interesting match between Mary Washington and Kalamazoo. Kalamazoo hasn't had anything resembling an impressive result all season, but all they have to do is beat Mary Washington, who wasn't too impressive themselves this season. The Eagles have shown nothing since the middle of February and ended their season gutting out a close win against a Salisbury team who was very weak this year. Denison was the only ranked team they beat since Indoors, so the story in this match is a battle between 2 teams that had really bad seasons. I think it will be a very close match and I'll take the Eagles in a 5-4 win. Mary Wash was the favorite in their round of 32 match the past 2 years and lost both times, so I wouldn't be too surprised with a Kalamazoo win.

Mary Wash can really make up for the last 3 years by winning this regional. I haven't changed my opinion that the talent is there, it just might be a matter of heart and mental toughness. The problem is that if they make the Sweet 16, they are up against Kenyon on the road, a team with as much heart and mental toughness as anyone. This could be a close match in Fredericksburg, but at Kenyon it's no contest. Mary Wash is losing to teams outside the top 20 and Kenyon is beating teams inside the top 10. On paper these two are close, in reality they are not. Kenyon wins 5-0 with absolutely no problems and advances to the Final 8.

Regional Preview: Gustavus

2011-05-09T19:58:00.000-07:00

A very intriguing Sweet 16 match on the horizon, but a lot of work to be done before we arrive there. Chicago's women took priority over the men and were able to host, which clearly shows where the priorities lie at UC. This is Chicago's first NCAA tournament since 2005 and the first time anyone on their current team has played in the tournament. The truth is this remains one of the most talented teams in the country, but they are at this spot because of 1 win this season against Wash U. Other than that 1 day, they've been the same old Chicago, so it depends which teams shows up this weekend. Their first round match should be a nice test as they get the winner of Grinell and UWEC, 2 teams who are solid, but not good enough to beat the Maroons. I see Chicago moving forward to the round of 16 with a 5-0 win.

If you want to talk about disappointing seasons, Trinity (TX) is up there. I had them overrated as a top 5 team in the preseason, but they've spent most of this season on the outskirts of the top 10. I still think this team is very good and can beat anyone on the right day, but to win this regional they will have to do something that they couldn't do this entire season: beat a top 10 team. To start, one of the biggest mistakes you can make is overlooking Gustavus. GAC has to be thrilled to be back in the tournament after a year hiatus and I'm sure they will have a great crowd out for their round of 32 match against Trinity. I think the Gusties will hang with TU, but every time GAC has run into a ranked team this year, they've lost. Trinity is a little better than just a "ranked team" as well. I like TU to advance to the Sweet 16 after a 5-1 win against Gustavus. I think energy could propel GAC to a doubles win, but they won't get very far in singles.

Even though Chicago holds the title of regional top seed, I see Trinity as the favorite in this match. TU is looking to get back to their second consecutive Elite 8 and make something of this year after a sloppy regular season. They have the experience edge and I think their strong doubles play matches up well against Chicago. The Maroons have been very weak in doubles besides the Wash U match. They dropped 2 to Denison, Kenyon, Carnegie and Gustavus, and they dropped all 3 to Emory and DePauw. If Chicago doesn't bring a high level in doubles, they will be down 3-0 before they know what hit them. TU remains as one of the best doubles lineups in the country, although they have been shaky at times this season. This is when they usually step up and I expect them to do it. Chicago's #2 team held them up during UAAs, but they can't count on that against versus TU's #2 team. Chicago needs to put a point on the board because TU is too good and too experienced to squander a 3-0 lead.

I've talked time and time again how TU needs to find wins throughout the singles lineup and this holds true in this match. Chicago probably has a slight edge in singles talent and the Tigers have to find guys who will step up. I expect a very similar match to last year's regional final between Trinity and Kenyon. I think TU will find a way to win, but it will be close. A lot depends upon how Chicago handles the moment, because the nerves get to you in doubles more than singles. I like Trinity to jump out to a 2-1 lead after doubles and hold on for a very close 5-3 win. I think their seniors will step up and their experience will pay off in this. The Tigers know they have potential and I think they will just want it more than Chicago. If the Maroons can somehow manage to get ahead after doubles they become a heavy favorite, but given the results during the season, I think that's an unlikely scenario.

Regional Preview: Amherst

2011-05-09T19:04:00.000-07:00

Probably the least mystery of all the regions. Amherst won't really be challenged if they play their full lineup, which I expect during NCAA competition. It seems as though Austin Chafetz is finally healthy and the timing couldn't have been better for the Jeffs. They were absolutely dominant in the NESCAC tournament, and I am still picking them to win the whole thing this year. I would expect them to get out of this region without dropping a point, although Skidmore does have the potential to play some solid doubles. As I said in my initial reaction, I'm quite surprised that Skidmore drew the #2 seed in this region over MIT, and Amherst certainly has to be pleased with this. MIT has some talent and could have given the Jeffs battles at several of the singles spots.

One thing that jumps out to me is the undefeated record of the Little East champion, UMass Dartmouth. This is the 2nd year in a row that the champion of this league is coming into the tournament with an undefeated record. We will see how they do in their first match against Roger Williams, but whoever wins should be thrilled to simply be on the court with Amherst. Skidmore knocked off TCNJ 5-4 a couple weeks ago, and I expect another close match. Since their Sweet 16 run in 2008, I don't think TCNJ has cracked the top 30 or done anything of note. They have no notable wins on their schedule this year and had a bad loss against Stevens. Skidmore came into this year with a lot of potential and high hopes, but I don't really know if they've met that. They started off strong going ahead of Bowdoin 2-1 in doubles back in March, but since then they've been very mediocre. The best win they have is probably Vassar, and this Skidmore squad is talented. They got lucky to have the #2 seed in a region and I think they will take advantage of it and get to the Sweet 16 after a 5-2 win vs. TCNJ.

Not much analysis necessary for the regional final. If Skidmore manages a point in this match, I think they should come away very happy. Amherst is too talented and too deep, and add the fact that they are playing at home, I expect them to drop about 10 games in doubles and very few in singles. Like I said, Skidmore is talented, but the Jeffs beat Skidmore a little over a month ago playing only 3 of their starters in singles. Amherst moves on to the Final 8 with an easy 5-0 victory.

NCAA Previews

2011-05-09T18:54:00.000-07:00

Tonight: Amherst & Gustavus
Tomorrow: Wash U & Kenyon
Wednesday: W&L & Middlebury
Thursday: Hopkins & Cruz

subject to change

Brackets Released

2011-05-09T15:08:00.000-07:00

Bracket is here!

I'll break down each region as this week goes by, but first some initial impressions. The first thing that popped out was obviously the potential Sweet 16 between Emory and NC Wesleyan. Neither team can be happy about this. I got it right that Emory would travel to W&L, but I can't think they were expecting this. I found out in the middle of the day that TCNJ did not put in a bid to host, and when I heard that I figured NCW may be grouped with Emory. Their only other option was to meet a NESCAC team halfway, and there were a limited number of sites where that could happen. Emory's undefeated season is rewarded by having to play an incredibly dangerous NCW team who is ranked 12 in the country. They look at the bottom half of their bracket and see Kenyon hosting and having a potential Sweet 16 match with 25th ranked Mary Wash. This is an absolute dream draw for Kenyon. They couldn't have made it better themselves. Not only can they waltz through their regional, they also pulled the #5 overall seed and a potential quarterfinal with Wash U who is significantly weaker than the top 3.

In my opinion the 6 through 8 seeds got messed up, but I think the NCAA was trying to avoid conference matches in the quarters. That's the only explanation I have for Chicago jumping both Williams and Middlebury and grabbing the #6 overall seed. It doesn't make much sense, but after all I guess it doesn't matter a ton because I still consider the top 3 overall seeds just about even.

A unique scenario where Cruz is hosting but CMS is the top seed. The Slugs have to be careful not to overlook a dangerous round of 32 with a top 10 team in Pomona-Pitzer. Whitman got their wish and got shipped to St. Louis. They have a tricky round of 32 against Whitewater before a potential Sweet 16 clash with Wash U where I actually think Whitman has a decent shot at a win.

Obviously a Cruz-CMS Sweet 16 is great, but if I could pick, I'd definitely go to Williams for the potential Williams-Hopkins match. There's so much pressure on both of these teams. The host Ephs missed the Final 8 last year for the first time since 1996 under first year head coach Dan Greenberg. The rest of the nation gave Williams some weird looks when one of the most storied programs in D3 hired a 23 year old as head coach. Missing the Final 8 in his first 2 years as coach would not bode well for Greenberg. On the flip side, you have Hopkins who is notorious for their NCAA tournament meltdowns. This has to be in the back of their minds, but at the same time, they could get the monkey off their back with a win here. This will be a wonderful test for Hopkins, going on the road and beating a tough team. 2 of the last 3 years, Hopkins has lost in NCAAs when they were the favorite, so let's see if they can take advantage of the underdog role this year.

Top 3 Winners and Losers from this bracket:

Winners
1. Kenyon - a great draw for the Lords
2. Whitman - they avoid California
3. Middlebury - they avoid traveling to play NCW and get Bowdoin at home instead

Losers (excluding California because that's a given at this point)
1. NCW - a match with undefeated Emory to get back to the Final 8
2. Emory - they will have to sweat through regionals rather than taking it easy
3. MIT - a round of 32 against Bowdoin when they easily could have been the 2 seed in Amherst's region

My Final Bracket Plus Explanation

2011-05-08T19:20:00.000-07:00

My field:
American Southwest - UT-Tyler
Capital Athletic - Mary Washington
Centennial - Johns Hopkins
CUNY - Hunter
Colonial States - Marywood
Commonwealth - Elizabethtown
Empire 8 - Stevens
Freedom - Wilkes
Heartland - Earlham
Iowa - Luther
Landmark - Drew
Little East - UMass Dartmouth
MIAA - Kalamazoo
Midwest - Grinnell
Minnesota - Gustavus
NESCAC - Amherst
NCAC - Kenyon
Northern Athletics - Concordia Wisconsin
Northwest - Whitman
Ohio - Ohio Northern
ODAC - Washington & Lee
President's Athletic - Grove City
Skyline - Farmingdale State
SCIAC - CMS
SCAC - Trinity (TX)
St. Louis - Westminster
Commonwealth Coast - Roger Williams
UAA - Emory
USA South - NC Wesleyan

Pool B
1. Cruz
2. MIT
3. Skidmore
4. Vassar
5. UW Whitewater
6. UW Eau Claire
7. TCNJ

Pool C
1. Wash U
2. Williams
3. Middlebury
4. Pomona-Pitzer
5. Chicago
6. Bowdoin

1. Emory, Mary Washington, Washington & Lee*, Elizabethtown, Marywood, Grove City
2. CMS, Cruz*, Pomona-Pitzer, UT-Tyler
3. Amherst*, MIT, Skidmore, Hunter, UMass Dartmouth
4. Wash U*, Whitman, UW Whitewater, Grinnell, Westminster
5. Kenyon*, Johns Hopkins, Kalamazoo, Ohio Northern, Earlham
6. Williams*, Bowdoin, Vassar, Roger Williams, Farmingdale State
7. Middlebury, NC Wesleyan, TCNJ*, Stevens, Drew, Wilkes
8. Chicago, Trinity (TX), Gustavus*, Luther, UW Eau Claire, Concordia Wisconsin

The first thing I did is figure out the #1 seeds. I don't know who else could crack the top 8 and I don't see it happening. The top 3 order is obvious. Wash U has two wins over Cruz plus a win against Chicago, Trinity TX and NC Wesleyan. Kenyon has beaten Chicago and PP. Williams and Midd's best wins are each other. That's why I gave Wash U and Kenyon the edge in overall seeding. Williams and Midd could go either way, but it could end up being important who gets that #6 overall if one of them has to travel to face NCW. I'll get to that scenario later. Chicago is the obvious #8 seed overall and I've been told they aren't putting in a bid to host.

The next thing to consider is the 500 mile rule. This means that if a team is more than 500 miles away from their host site, they have to be flown at the NCAAs expense. The NCAA is cheap and doesn't want this, so they try to limit the amount of flights. 3 teams must be flown and those are Trinity (TX), Tyler and Whitman. This is why the 3 top 10 California teams are grouped together. It is cheaper to fly team in versus all of those teams out. The team coming into California will either be Tyler or Whitman. Whitman has gone to Cali the past 3 years, but this year I see Tyler going there because I don't know if I'd say they are ranked high enough to act as a 2 seed in a region. I send the weaker team to California and I think that's Tyler. The California hosting is also weird. CMS is the higher ranked team and I think they will be the top seed in the region, however I like Cruz to host because they beat CMS head to head. I'm really not sure what's going to happen, but hosting is very important. And with Pomona-Pitzer as a dangerous 3 seed, getting that top seed is important also to avoid the Hens in the opening round. I'm very interested to see what the committee will do with this, but my guess is CMS gets the 1 seed and Cruz hosts.

Every year Emory's men and women switch on and off putting in bids to host. This year its the men's turn. However, I see a problem with this. Only 2 teams are within driving distance of Emory. That's Washington & Lee and NC Wesleyan. The thing that puzzles me is 2 years ago Mary Washington was sent to the Emory regional and I'm not sure how they got there. This could happen again, but Google Maps is showing me UMW is 580 miles from Emory. Either way, I see Emory having to travel to W&L with UMW also going there. You then can send some PA teams down to VA to fill the region. I don't think NCW will get sent to Emory since the Bishops are ranked so high and it can be avoided. That would be unfortunate for NCW. Even if they did, someone would have to fly there and it won't be Trinity. That leaves Tyler or Whitman, whoever doesn't go to California. If that happens, there's no legitimate #2 seed in Wash U's region and I think Trinity is ranked high enough to avoid St. Louis. That's why I structured things with Emory traveling.

I think region 3 is pretty clear cut. I see Skidmore taking on MIT for the right to play Amherst. Bowdoin will draw either Midd or Williams since they are ranked higher than MIT. Not much to this.

Kalamazoo was the 2 seed for Wash U last year, but they aren't even top 30 this year and can't be a 2. Chicago is a 1 so they will avoid STL. There are no other candidates in the area to be a 2 seed, so this is where a flying team comes into play. I mentioned how I sent Tyler to Cali because they were weaker than Whitman, so I have Whitman coming to Wash U. This may be wishful thinking, but I definitely see either Whitman or Tyler as the 2 seed in this region. The Bears would luck out if they drew Tyler as a 2, because I think the Pats aren't that strong this year. Whitman on the other hand could give Wash U a run for their money, so if I'm the Bears I'm hoping for Tyler.

Midd beat Williams, but Williams beat Midd more recently. The next best win for both of them is Bowdoin and they have very similar resumes. Due to the fact that Williams beat Midd more recently, I gave them the 6 overall seed. This really could go either way though. Whoever draws #6 will almost definitely host and have Bowdoin come to town. Bowdoin played a 5-4 match with both teams this season so this could be an interesting Sweet 16 encounter. Whoever comes out of this region would be in line to play Amherst in the Elite 8.

The other NESCAC team will definitely draw #7 overall. Since there are no other northeast teams and if NCW doesn't end up getting sent to Emory, I see the NESCAC team traveling south and NCW traveling north for those 2 to meet in New Jersey which is a central location. Two teams in NJ, Drew and TCNJ, have both hosted regionals within the past 5 years. A Midd-NCW match could be an intriguing rematch of last year's NCAA quarterfinal. I believe whoever gets that #6 overall seed has a massive edge getting to play at home against Bowdoin versus traveling to play NCW.

Chicago is the clear #8 overall seed and Trinity is the top #2 regional seed (besides Cali), and given the fact that Trinity is flexible since they have to be flown, I see these two in the same region. Chicago is not putting in a bid to host, so I could see them potentially going to Whitewater or Gustavus. Gustavus is far from a lot of teams, but they have hosted in the past and have great facilities, to I gave them the edge here. Chicago can drive there and Trinity would fly in.

Sorry If I was not clear during this explanation. Brackets to be released late afternoon tomorrow and I'll have analysis this week.

Amherst Takes NESCAC

2011-05-08T09:43:00.001-07:00

Amherst wins the NESCAC 5-0 over Williams. The Ephs beat Middlebury on Saturday in a 5-4 nailbiter. In other news, Gustavus took back the MIAC with an 8-1 win over Carleton and Luther beat Coe 5-1 to win the IIAC.

Williams win over Midd shakes things up a bit. This is my guess at the top 3 teams in each region. Brackets released tomorrow evening.

1. Emory, Mary Washington, Washington & Lee*
2. CMS, Cruz*, Pomona-Pitzer
3. Amherst*, MIT, Skidmore
4. Wash U*, Whitman, UW Whitewater
5. Kenyon*, Johns Hopkins, Kalamazoo
6. Williams*, Bowdoin, Vassar
7. Middlebury, NC Wesleyan, TCNJ*
8. Chicago, Trinity (TX), Gustavus*

I will try to create another scenario and fill in the rest of the teams and post it tonight.

NESCAC Preview and Bracketology Update

2011-05-05T18:56:00.000-07:00

A couple big matches in the NESCAC tournament this weekend, but most notably a chance for Bowdoin to take all mystery out of Pool C tomorrow. They have the 6th Pool C spot on their rackets tomorrow against Tufts. Win and they're in, lose and they still might be in it but the committee would take a much closer look at things. In the other first round match, Williams plays Trinity (CT) in what should be a routine win for the Ephs. A Trinity (CT) could make things interesting in Pool C, but I don't think it will be much of a match. Amherst and Midd receive byes, and both of them have locked up regional top seeds. They are simply playing for overall seeding. Amherst can't help themselves, the best they can do is the #3 overall seed. Midd stands at #4 overall now, but a loss to Williams in the semifinal could potentially hurt and a victory this weekend could send them up to #3. Williams currently stands as the #8 overall seed according to my projections, so a win against Middlebury in the semis could help their seeding and hurt Midd. We will see how things play out and hopefully I can break things down on Sunday before the brackets are released Monday evening.

My guess as to how things are right now. I haven't been following closely, especially in Pool B, so please correct me if I get one of those teams wrong. Teams marked wit a * have already won their conference, the rest are just projections.

American Southwest - UT-Tyler*
Capital Athletic - Mary Washington*
Centennial - Johns Hopkins*
CUNY - Hunter*
Colonial States - Marywood
Commonwealth - Elizabethtown*
Empire 8 - Stevens
Freedom - Wilkes*
Heartland - Earlham*
Iowa - Coe
Landmark - Drew*
Little East - UMass Dartmouth
MIAA - Kalamazoo*
Midwest - Grinnell
Minnesota - Gustavus
NESCAC - Amherst
NCAC - Kenyon*
Northern Athletics - Concordia Wisconsin
Northwest - Whitman*
Ohio - Ohio Northern
ODAC - Washington & Lee*
President's Athletic - Grove City*
Skyline - Farmingdale State*
SCIAC - CMS*
SCAC - Trinity (TX)*
St. Louis - Westminster*
Commonwealth Coast - Roger Williams*
UAA - Emory*
USA South - NC Wesleyan*

Pool B
1. Cruz
2. MIT
3. Skidmore
4. Vassar
5. UW Whitewater
6. UW Eau Claire
7. TCNJ

Pool C
1. Middlebury
2. Wash U
3. Pomona-Pitzer
4. Chicago
5. Williams
6. Bowdoin

1. Emory, Mary Washington, Washington & Lee*, Elizabethtown, Marywood, Grove City
2. CMS, UC Santa Cruz*, Pomona-Pitzer, UT-Tyler
3. Amherst*, MIT, Skidmore, Hunter, UMass Dartmouth
4. Middlebury*, Bowdoin, Vassar, Roger Williams, Farmingdale State
5. Wash U*, Whitman, UW Whitewater, Grinnell, Westminster
6. Kenyon*, Johns Hopkins, Kalamazoo, Ohio Northern, Earlham
7. Chicago, Trinity (TX), Gustavus*, Coe, UW Eau Claire, Concordia Wisconsin
8. Williams, NC Wesleyan, TCNJ*, Stevens, Drew, Wilkes

* denotes host

NESCAC

2011-05-01T20:27:00.000-07:00

Haven't been super active lately but not a ton has happened.

Most of the current action is in the NESCAC right now with the biggest news of the weekend being Amherst's win over Middlebury 6-3. This was a very close match and makes the Jeffs the top seed in next weekend's NESCAC tournament. Williams should be 3 and Bowdoin 4 after the Polar Bears easy 7-2 win against Trinity (CT). Bowdoin looks to be well on their way to gaining the last Pool C bid and could be a dangerous team in the tournament. The 5 and 6 seeds are interesting cases. The NESCAC tournament only allows 6 teams in. Tufts, Trinity (CT) and Bates are competing for those spots. I'm really not sure how the selection will go because they all have wins over each other. Tufts has the best record in the conference, but I'm not sure if that means anything.

Overall seeding in NCAAs now looks like this:
1. Emory
2. CMS/Cruz
3. Amherst
4. Middlebury
5. Wash U
6. Kenyon
7. Chicago
8. Williams

And I really don't see many changes from my bracketology from a few weeks ago but I will update it and post a new one this week.

Automatic Bids

2011-04-26T21:02:00.000-07:00

The following teams have received auto bids to NCAAs

Capital - Mary Washington
Northwest - Whitman
ODAC - Washington & Lee
SCIAC - CMS
SCAC - Trinity (TX)
UAA - Emory
USA South - NC Wesleyan

Update On Past Weekend and NCAA Picture

2011-04-26T20:03:00.000-07:00

I apologize for the quality of the blog faltering slightly, but it's somewhat out of my control. The fact that I don't do this for profit makes it a distant second priority to my actual career.

I don't have time to get all the box scores together but I'll recap the past weekend that I missed and discuss the significance of some of the results.

Last Thursday, Mary Wash played Salisbury in the CAC Final and won their 12th consecutive conference title. The match was much closer than I expected because Salisbury has been really down this year. Mary Wash has this tendency to play down to weaker opponents and this was on display here. The bottom line is the Eagles pulled it out and will be headed to NCAAs once again. Despite the fact they may finish out of the top 25 in the country, I still think Mary Wash has talent and could be a sleeper in the tournament. They did beat CLU, but besides that their only somewhat good result has been a win over Denison.

On Friday, the big match was Pomona-Pitzer vs. Redlands in the SCIAC semifinal. P-P won 7-2 in a match that was much closer than the score. Once again, Redlands managed 2 of the doubles to give them a shot at a win. I've talked time and time again about how mentally weak the Bulldogs are this year and that showed again because Redlands won 4 first sets and proceeded to get blown out after that. Again, that winning edge they used to have just wasn't there. After seeing that Trinity (CT) lost to Tufts which I'll discuss soon, my opinion of Redlands really drops. Another year where they will finish out of the top 15 and miss the tournament. They have zero chance of making Pool C even if everything happens perfectly. Another unfortunate season for Redlands as the tide is turning in the SCIAC. Congratulations to P-P on a great semifinal win, but they were given a clinic the following day. CMS dominated start to finish for the 2nd weekend in a row, really asserting their dominance by winning their 6th consecutive conference title. With Erani back at full strength, I think the Stags will be a force to be reckoned with in NCAAs. I'm really looking forward to the West Regional in a few weeks and it's probably a mistake to count out P-P, but I'm already penciling in a Cruz-CMS regional final. I'm thinking Cruz will be hosting, so it will be a heck of a match. CMS doesn't have much tarnish on their results this year, but that loss to Cruz was the biggest match of the season for the Stags. I'm really anxious to see the outcome of that because I think it's very unpredictable. There's a lot of pressure to win on both teams and whoever emerges will surely be a frontrunner for the national title.

Next I want to discuss the recent results from Williams as they beat Bowdoin 5-4 and then lost to Middlebury 7-2. Bowdoin is still playing without Fenichell, their normal 3 or 4, who they claim will be back for the NESCAC tournament. This was an excellent match and Williams was lucky to sneak out with a win. I think both teams have to feel decently about the result as Bowdoin have a top 10 team and a potential NCAA opponent a very hard time while Williams showed great mental toughness to come back and win the match. I think Williams locked up an NCAA bid after this win and I think it's unlikely they'll get derailed from a top seed in a regional. I expected them to beat Midd solidly the next day and that certainly wasn't the case. Midd just played with more heart and the match was all but over after the doubles sweep. I'm very impressed by the Panthers in this one and can't wait for their showdown with Amherst this weekend. Williams has been up and down and has had impressive results here and there, but given their team and their ability to recruit, they've certainly underachieved from a big picture perspective since Dan Greenberg took over at the beginning of last year. They've got a dangerous match against a desperate Trinity (CT) team tomorrow which should be a real test for them. Williams has a lot of talent but I feel like they don't show up mentally every time out.

This transitions into the most shocking result of the weekend and possibly the year as Trinity (CT) lost to unranked Tufts to all but ruin their NCAA chances. Tufts is a team I don't pay much attention to, but they deserve some credit. They got smoked early in the season by Bowdoin and Herst as well as losing to MIT, but they've beaten Trinity (CT) and Brandeis in a 5 day stretch. When the next rankings come out they will be flirting with the top 20. A match against Bates this weekend is huge for Tufts. Only 6 teams qualify for the NESCAC tournament and usually who goes is pretty clear cut, but I feel like Trinity (CT), Tufts and Bates will be battling it out for the 5th and 6th spots, which means 1 team gets left out. I don't know how the selection will work but it could get interesting. As far as Pool C is concerned, Bowdoin is now in the driver's seat for the 6th and final spot despite their loss to Williams. I think a win against Williams may have locked them in, but now they have to sweat it out. If Bowdoin does what they are supposed to do, meaning beat Trinity (CT) and Bates this weekend and then win their 1st round NESCAC tournament match, they're in for sure. Things get interesting if Trinity (CT) knocks them off. Those 2 would then be in contention and another team you could look at would be DePauw who has some decent wins. DePauw played an epic match against Rhodes in the SCAC tournament semifinal this past weekend before succumbing to Trinity (TX) in the final. TU hasn't been making a lot of noise lately but this was a good win for them going into the tournament. There are a lot of scenarios, but I'll first wait to see how things play out with Bowdoin over the next few weeks.

Sorry

2011-04-25T21:31:00.000-07:00

Sorry guys, have to push things back to Tuesday. Getting crushed at work right now and I'm doing my best with this.

Update On...Things

2011-04-20T21:08:00.000-07:00

Not too much has happened the past few weeks as far as shake-ups on the national scene, but I want to look at a few potential scenarios concerning Pool C and NCAA seeding. First of all, the oft talked about Pool C has become quite clear at this point. Wash U, Chicago, Pomona-Pitzer and the NESCAC 2 and 3 are all but locks. The NESCAC 2 and 3 will most likely be some combination of Williams, Herst and Midd. The 6th spot still remains and in my mind there are 3 contenders, 2 of which have a large leg up. The team sitting in a distant 3rd place for that spot is Redlands. The Bulldogs are still alive because they have a winnable match in their conference tournament this weekend in a probable semifinal against Pomona-Pitzer. Just a few weeks ago, Redlands had the Hens on the ropes in a match they should have won. I don't think there's much doubt as to who will win the SCIAC tournament after seeing what CMS did to PP last weekend. PP isn't really playing for anything because they've locked up a spot in the tournament and there's a 99.9% chance they will just stay in the West for regionals with Cruz and CMS. They can't really help themselves at all. Same story goes for Cal Lu...too many losses, their NCAA hopes are gone. However, this tournament is extremely significant for Redlands. I don't know if people are nerds like me and read the season previews published on school's websites, but I revisited the Redlands 2011 preview and enjoyed some of Coach Roche's quotes about this season. The goals he laid out for the team are getting back to NCAAs, winning the conference and finishing top 10 in the country. They are so far from those it's a joke. They made the tournament 17 consecutive years and they are about to miss for the 2nd consecutive year. That's just bad. They have all the tools to be a great team with talented young players, senior leadership and good coaching, but they are so mentally weak and can't win any close matches. On paper this is a top 12 team but the intangibles are missing.

The interesting thing is, even if Redlands beats Pomona-Pitzer, I don't think they are a lock for the tournament, they just keep their hopes alive. That's because they lost to Trinity (CT), a team they are competing against. One thing we know is Redlands has to win, so let's see that happen first and then we can discuss scenarios.

Williams has a huge weekend. They play Bowdoin and Middlebury. The thing is I don't know if the Ephs can really help themselves because they lost to Pomona-Pitzer, currently ranked 8th. Midd is #1 in the country, but that is still because of last year, so if Williams beats Midd, we are looking at the Panthers moving down to #10 in the country and Williams staying where they are. For Midd to run the table, they will need to win against Williams, beat Amherst next weekend and then win the NESCAC tournament. That's no easy task and frankly I don't think anyone besides themselves expects them to do it. Their best win to date was against a shorthanded Bowdoin team, so this Williams match will show us if they are for real. This is a massive match for Midd because of NCAA seedings and a potential region. Right now things look like this...

Midd
Emory
CMS/Cruz
Herst
Wash U
Kenyon
Chicago
Williams

Things could look like this if Williams wins...

Emory
CMS/Cruz
Herst
Wash U
Kenyon
Chicago
Williams
Midd

With that 8th seed, most likely going to be Midd or Williams, probably comes NCW on a neutral court in the Sweet 16. Probably at TCNJ, that's no easy match after seeing NCW this season. Whoever finishes 2nd in the NESCAC most likely gets to remain at home for NCAAs and will have a Sweet 16 against whoever makes the tournament between Bowdoin and Trinity (CT) (barring a win from Redlands as previously discussed). That is significantly easier than traveling to take on NCW. Plus, whoever gets that 8th overall seed is in line to play a pretty much untouchable Emory, with the Eagles Pottish-Goodwin-Egan combo extending their singles record to 37-0 combined after this past weekend.

Let's say Midd beats Williams but loses to Amherst...

Emory
CMS/Cruz
Herst
Midd
Wash U
Kenyon
Chicago
Williams

Much nicer for Middlebury once again. So as I've explained, a huge weekend for Midd and Williams. Another note is on a wildcard here and that's Bowdoin. The Polar Bears have been playing without 2 starters the second half of the season and they could be dangerous if they get back to full strength.

Weekend Recap

2011-04-18T21:04:00.000-07:00

Please pardon my recent slacking. I've been extremely busy with work and unfortunately the blog takes a distant backseat. I'll do my best to finish the season strong.

UAA Tournament
I was praising Amherst last week about their great performance against Williams, but after Emory doing what they did against Wash U, I think they are going to be very difficult to beat in May. The Eagles didn't just beat Wash U, they crushed them. Compare this to a 6-3 battle at Indoors 2 months ago. I've said the entire season that I think Emory is very focused and they continue to show that. They will head into NCAAs as certainly a top 3 favorite to win it, if not the #1 favorite. Wash U has shown signs of struggling in the past several weeks and this is more along the lines of what I expected from them this season. Their doubles was hot early in the season, but it hasn't been clicking recently, and this is something they will desperately need if they want to make a Final 4 run. The win against Chicago was important for NCAA seeding purposes. The Bears should go into the tournament as the 4th or 5th overall seed, but I don't know if they are a serious threat to win the whole thing. I just have a hard time believing that they would beat Cruz if the 2 played tomorrow. I'm not saying a 2nd place finish at UAAs is bad, I'm just saying I know the Bears expect more from themselves than getting to the final and getting crushed by Emory. Chicago did what they needed to do and I think they will head into NCAAs as a top seed in their region. I know they wanted that win against Wash U in the semifinal, but I think what they've accomplished this season is great. I'll be very interested to see how they perform in NCAAs because I'm sure that they will have a brutal Sweet 16 match on the way to the Final 8.

Middlebury d. Bowdoin 5-4
Don't let the 5-4 score deceive you, this wasn't close. Midd continues to move through their season quietly as a team that most people aren't paying a lot of attention to, but they are undefeated in D3 play at the moment. Obviously their big tests this season will be against Williams and Amherst which have yet to come. Midd is playing for NCAA seeding at this point, and I think it would be a great accomplishment if they could head into NCAAs as a top 4 seed overall. We'll really be able to judge them better after this weekend's clash with Williams.

Cruz d. Pomona-Pitzer 6-3
CMS d. Pomona-Pitzer 8-1
P-P looks like they are pulling a 2010 Cal Lu. Be great in the beginning of the season against everyone and then lose to the teams you actually need to beat in NCAAs. I know Pomona-Pitzer's program, and I know they aren't satisfied with just making the NCAA tournament because they haven't been there in a long time. They will want to go there and win the whole thing. The bottom line is it doesn't matter what they're ranked, they lost easily to the 2 teams they need to beat to make a run in NCAAs. I don't know if they have the singles talent to beat these 2, but they'll have to find something in the next few weeks to at least put up a fight. I don't see them derailing another Cruz-CMS Sweet 16 match. Good job by both of the powerhouses to push aside a tough P-P team that has given a lot of people trouble. Cruz and CMS are in the top 5 for a reason and they showed that this weekend.

Newest ITA Rankings were finally released. No surprises here. The proposed NCAA bracket that I proposed last week looks no different now. Pretty much everything happened as expected over the weekend.

Update

2011-04-15T18:25:00.000-07:00

830PM PT - update coming shortly.

SFA Interview With Scott Thielke

2011-04-12T22:14:00.000-07:00

Recently, Scholarship for Athletes, a service that helps student-athletes select colleges, interviewed Scott Thielke, Head Coach of Kenyon College. The reason I'm posting this is because I know some prospective D3 players read this blog and I think Coach Thielke hit the nail on the head with his answers to all these questions. It sheds some light on what a D3 coach looks for and how a student-athlete looking at D3 should be thinking.

http://blog.scholarshipforathletes.com/2011/04/11/sfa-coaches-interview-e-scott-thielke-kenyon-university/

Weekend Recap: April 7 - April 10

2011-04-12T20:27:00.000-07:00

Mark Kahan, Amherst

I apologize again for the absence, but everyone needs a vacation. I thought a little downtime might be appropriate since we are entering the last third of the season and things will get busy. I will try to touch on all the key matches from this past weekend and discuss their significance.

Brandeis d. MIT 6-3
There will be a lot of good matches in these recaps, but this one is definitely up there in best comebacks of the year. Brandeis was down 2-1 in doubles and lost 5 first sets on the road and they managed to come back and win. After a rough California trip for the Judges I was questioning them a little bit, but this match leaves no doubt in my mind that they are on the brink of being a top 20 team. This was a big win for them and had to give them confidence heading toward a Sunday showdown with Trinity (CT) which I'll discuss later in this recap. A disappointing loss for MIT who started the season well with a win against Bates. I think they are also a borderline top 20 team and usually don't play up to their talent. This was obviously a winnable match for them, but I still thought they would be a threat to Bowdoin the following day after this result.

Bowdoin d. MIT 5-4
One thing that pops out at me is Bowdoin is missing 2 starters from their starting lineup to begin this season. Nico Fenichell hasn't been in action since California and this was Chris Lord's first match out of the lineup. Bowdoin can't afford to have injuries if they are hoping to finish top 4 in NESCAC this year. The injuries almost cost them in this match but they managed to win somehow. MIT again went up 2-1 in doubles and ended up losing a heartbreaker. Bowdoin's release said that MIT led 5-1 in the 3rd set at #6 singles before Bowdoin staged a comeback. This basically kept Bowdoin's tournament hopes alive and allowed them to play another day. Their chances of winning NESCAC are almost none so that Pool C bid is their ticket to the tournament and every win is huge for them. Kudos to the Polar Bears for battling in this and finding a way to win. Sullivan has really been rock solid at the top of the lineup this year and I think he deserves a last NCAA appearance during his senior year.

Redlands d. Cal Lutheran 6-2
I thought CLU has a good chance in this because it was a good matchup for the Kingsmen, but obviously they needed to get ahead in doubles because Redlands is too deep to succumb to CLU's weak bottom half. The Kingsmen's weakness is on display perfectly in this boxscore, but what impressed me was Redlands ability to sweep doubles. This match all but ends Cal Lutheran's NCAA tournament hopes and despite a rough season, Redlands is still hanging on by a thread if they could manage a big win in the SCIAC tournament. A solid and much needed win for the Bulldogs against a feisty opponent. One thing that worries me for Redlands is that Anish Nanda was nowhere to be found in the starting lineup. I tapped him as the key to Redlands success this year so that's very disappointing to see.

DePauw d. Denison 5-3
Carnegie d. Case Western 6-2
Case Western d. Denison 5-4
DePauw d. Carnegie 5-1
As I said previously, the GLCA tournament lost a lot of its luster after Kenyon withdrew, but some good tennis was played this weekend as DePauw came out on top for their first GLCA tournament win since 2007 when they also beat Carnegie in the final. The Tigers needed this for confidence purposes heading into the SCAC tournament. They don't have enough of a resume to get an at-large bid so they will need to beat Rhodes and Trinity (TX) on back to back days to gain entry into the tournament. DPU's doubles has been solid this year and if they end up meeting Trinity, I think they need to put up at least 1 point on the board in doubles if they want to have a shot. This is a tricky team who could be dangerous if they find their way into the tournament.

Carnegie is the big disappointment of this season by far and they could finish out of the top 20. I'll take some time to discuss them now since their season is virtually over entering the impossibly difficult UAA tournament. This season tells me that they remain a 2nd tier program who had a good year in 2010, rather than a 1st tier program who had a bad year in 2011. There's really no excuse for what happened this year because if you look at other teams around the country who were decimated by graduations, those teams were just fine (Kenyon, Trinity (CT)). One loss is acceptable, but they've been consistently bad for a while. This is a bit shocking after Girard's National Coach of the Year award in 2010 and I'm surprised that he would let this happen. I thought the gap was closing between CMU and Wash U/Emory, but the truth is it remains very wide. This is a large blemish for this program because the top teams don't have "down years." I don't talk a lot about intangibles, but clearly something big was missing this year, because the fact remains they are a solid team on paper. I expect them to lose to host Brandeis in the UAA 1st round this weekend.

Another disappointing showing for Denison as they led 2-1 after doubles against DePauw and let the lead slip away again. The following day when they fell behind against Case, they couldn't manage to win 4 singles matches. They play Kenyon tomorrow, and if Kenyon is anywhere close to healthy, I don't expect it to be much of a match. Good fight from Case in the 3rd place match. I think they could be a factor in this weekend's UAA tournament. If they can get a big win this weekend, they could get some Brandeis-like momentum and confidence heading into the 2012 season. Case is a program ready to turn the corner, but they still need that big win to get there and they could get it this weekend.

NC Wesleyan d. Mary Washington 8-1
This was destruction and at the moment, I think NCW could be the most under the radar team in the country. It's no mystery that NCW can play amazing singles, and if they can somehow get their doubles working, I expect to see them in the Final 8 for the 2nd year in a row. They have to hope for a little luck of the draw from the NCAA committee, but if they can get in a decent region, they are probably the favorite even if they aren't the top seed. The Bishops have been playing great tennis since Indoors and I expect it to continue. This confirms once again that UMW isn't a threat to top 15 teams. Wichlin seems to be injured and he's really their only hope at remaining competitive. They will limp into the post-season, but I think it could be a big boost if they can manage a win in the NCAA tournament.

Middlebury d. Trinity (CT) 7-2
Good showing from Midd, they were dominant across the board and to me this win cements their place as a definite top 10 team. Their was very little doubt that was true, but now that doubt is gone. They seem to be solid everywhere, but this was a statement win and I look forward to their upcoming matches against the other NESCAC powerhouses. This was a good chance for Trinity to get their feet wet in NESCAC play, but by no means was it a bad loss. If anything it was a good learning experience to remind them they need to get better, because they had some big wins coming into this match. This brought them back to down to earth and they still have a long way to go before they clinch a tournament spot.

CMS d. Redlands 8-1
Not much to say here. CMS was impressive and showed no mercy against their conference rivals. They reminded Redlands that the gap between the teams remains huge. A good confidence builder for CMS heading into a match against Pomona-Pitzer followed by the conference tournament. I was impressed by the Stags doubles and this is something that will need to be clicking for them to make a national title run.

Amherst d. Bowdoin 7-2
Again, not much to say here. Amherst took care of business with half their lineup and Bowdoin also played shorthanded as I mentioned earlier. The Jeffs were dominant heading into the Sunday showdown with Williams.

Gustavus d. Carleton 8-1
I was very wrong about these 2 this year. Gustavus has picked up their play significantly without much in the way of personnel additions, and it seems as though Carleton has fallen off after a big 2010. Gustavus will enter the conference tournament as the heavy favorite. I think the Gusties are a serious sleeper in the NCAA tournament who could knock off a top team on the right day. This team continues to grow and I expect to see them in the top 30 at year-end which is a big accomplishment. It shows that the team has a lot of heart and the program is making strides towards a rebound.

Skidmore d. TCNJ 5-4
Skidmore is a team I really like, but they were points away from getting swept in doubles against a team I don't consider top 30 material. Skidmore is talented as shown by their near upset against Bowdoin early in the season, but this result worries me a little bit. They are the favorite to win their conference tournament against Vassar and could also be a sleeper in NCAAs if they are all on the same page. A good rebound for Skidmore in singles, but they still need to improve over the next month to compete with anyone respectable in NCAAs.

Trinity (CT) d. Brandeis 7-2
A really impressive result for Trinity (CT). The thing that pops out to me is the 2 singles match where Simon Miller of Brandeis retired when he was leading. I hope he is okay for this weekend because he has been the cornerstone of Brandeis tennis for the past few years and deserves to play UAAs at home as a senior. This had to suck the life out of the Judges and they went down easily after that. Trinity (CT) continues to be solid and from the looks of it, it will be them and Bowdoin battling it out for that 6th and final Pool C spot. Their regular season match with Bowdoin was rescheduled for April 29th, and they could also meet again in the NESCAC tournament. Although I think these 2 are quite far from the NESCAC top 3, 4th in the conference should be enough to get you into the tournament.

Amherst d. Williams 5-4
Every time these 2 step on the court it's a war. There's not much else that needs to be said. There have been many incredible matches this year, but because of the rivalry and significance of this, I have to say this is the best match of the year up to this point. Williams managed 2 of the doubles as well as 5 first sets and Amherst managed incredible comebacks at the top 3 spots. Every team in the country should mimic Amherst's fight because it is absolutely unmatched. They never give up and they dig themselves out of ridiculous holes time and time again. They are still playing without Austin Chafetz and I have no reports on his status. Williams youth showed in this match and they folded in a match they should have won. I hope it will only make them hungrier and I hope they aren't effected by this loss going forward. Amherst was tougher in this and they have been the tougher team for the past several years. I would be surprised if these 2 don't meet again this season, but the headline match of this weekend surpassed the hype. I think specifics and analysis are irrelevant, I'm just in awe of this match result. Williams showed that they are a very good team because they certainly have some critics, myself included. But the story here is really Amherst, showing that they are tough as nails and will rise to any challenge. Despite struggles this season, this is why they remain as my pick to win it all this year.

Update

2011-04-11T22:00:00.000-07:00

AIMING FOR 9PM PT. BEGINNING WRITING SHORTLY

Been out of town for the past several days so I won't be able to write a weekend recap until Tuesday evening. I will have a look at this past weekend's results as well as the latest updates on NCAA scenarios. Conference championships are beginning soon. I apologize for the inconvenience and please check back Tuesday night.

Brief Weekend Preview

2011-04-07T21:08:00.000-07:00

Running a bit short on time after Bracketology so I apologize for the brief post. Several good matches this weekend. To begin, the GLCA tournament is happening at Kalamazoo this weekend. Potential semis are CMU-Case and DePauw-Denison. I think the only team who can really help themselves is CMU. They still have a tiny bit of hope for an at-large bid, but obviously they need to win this tournament first. The others are out of it in Pool C and are really just playing for pride in my opinion. This tournament really fell off when Kenyon pulled out.

Also on Saturday, NC Wesleyan will be tested when they take on Mary Washington. This will be a good test for NCW's doubles teams, because they've obviously been shaky this year and you're not doing anything in NCAAs without solid doubles. Middlebury has another test as they play Trinity (CT). Midd started a little rough, but I expect them to pick up their play now that they are back at home against conference opponents. The Bantams are trying to prove they are a solid top 15 team and pushing a team like Midd would certainly help that cause. A huge rivalry as always taking place in California with Redlands playing CMS. CMS has dominated the past several times out, however this remains a rivalry where anything can happen, especially with desperation setting in for Redlands. Also in the Northeast is Bowdoin at Amherst as the Jeffs look to continue their dominance of the past couple weeks against a solid opponent. Lastly, the regular season match between the top 2 teams in the MIAC: Carleton and Gustavus. GAC has been tough this year and Carleton has been shaky, but I can be sure the Knights will get fired up for this. Gustavus won the regular season match between these 2 last year, but Carleton ended up winning in the conference title. I definitely expect a good one in Minnesota on Saturday.

On Sunday, a dangerous Brandeis team travels to Hartford to take on Trinity (CT). This is a match Trinity can't afford to lose, but with a Brandeis win against MIT today, I know they will be upset-minded. This is an interesting match because both teams are top heavy and somewhat lacking depth. I am definitely on upset watch here; this would be a huge win for either team.

The main event of the weekend is Williams and Amherst. This is one of the best rivalries in D3 at the moment because even though Amherst seems better, Williams is always ready to play against the Jeffs. These 2 met 3 times last year with Amherst winning 2, including an NCAA Sweet 16 nailbiter that was one of the best matches of 2010. Williams knocked off Amherst in the NESCAC tournament semifinals last year on Amherst's home court, so I'm sure that stung for the Jeffs. I'm going to pick Amherst in this but I expect it to be tight. This would be a huge win for Williams locking them into the NCAA tournament, but it's also a chance for Amherst to make a statement after they looked vulnerable in California.

Bracketology Issue #1

2011-04-07T20:31:00.000-07:00

I talk a lot about NCAAs, but it's late enough in the season to start looking at some potential scenarios. The NCAA Breakdown has been in the latest news tab for most of the season, but for those who haven't seen it, here's a brief overview...29 spots are available to teams that win their conference, these are called automatic qualifiers. Their conferences are recognized by the NCAA as conferences who's champion receives an auto bid to NCAAs. The next group is for teams that don't come from automatic qualifiers. There are 7 spots for these teams. It is called Pool B. The remaining 6 teams come from conferences that have automatic bids, but these teams don't win their conference. This is what I constantly refer to as Pool C.

I've made a couple assumptions for the purposes of simplicity. I think this is what the tournament will look like IF IT STARTED TODAY. I had to make "predictions" as to who would win each conference, however I just used the higher ranked team. For example, I think Amherst will end up winning the NESCAC, however, at the moment, Middlebury is #1 and Amherst is #4, so I have the conference going to Middlebury. This is just to make things simple and avoid conflict.

The Field of 42:

Automatic Qualifier
American Southwest - Tyler
Capital Athletic - Mary Washington
Centennial - Hopkins
CUNY - Baruch
Colonial States - Marywood
Commonwealth - Elizabethtown
Empire 8 - Ithaca
Freedom - Manhattanville
Heartland - Transylvania
Iowa - Luther
Landmark - Drew
Little East - Western Connecticut State
MIAA - Kalamazoo
Midwest - Grinnell
Minnesota - Gustavus
NESCAC - Amherst
NCAC - Kenyon
Northern Athletics - MSOE
Northwest - Whitman
Ohio - Ohio Northern
ODAC - Washington & Lee
President's Athletic - Grove City
Skyline - Farmingdale State
SCIAC - CMS
SCAC - Trinity (TX)
St. Louis - Westminster
Commonwealth Coast - Western New England
UAA - Emory
USA South - NC Wesleyan

Independent
1. Santa Cruz
2. MIT
3. Skidmore
4. Vassar
5. Whitewater
6. TCNJ
7. UW Lacrosse

At-Large
1. Amherst
2. Wash U
3. Pomona-Pitzer
4. Chicago
5. Williams
6. Trinity (CT)

Regions (* denotes host team)
1. Middlebury*, MIT, Vassar, Ithaca, Western Connecticut, Western New England
2. Emory, Mary Washington, Washington & Lee*, Elizabethtown, Grove City
3. CMS, Santa Cruz*, Pomona-Pitzer, UT-Tyler
4. Amherst*, Trinity (CT), Skidmore, Baruch, Manhattanville,
5. Wash U*, Whitman, Kalamazoo, Grinnell, Westminster
6. Kenyon*, Johns Hopkins, UW Whitewater, Ohio Northern, Transylvania
7. Chicago*, Trinity (TX), Gustavus, Luther, UW Lacrosse, MSOE
8. Williams, NC Wesleyan, TCNJ*, Drew, Marywood, Farmingdale State

In the Final 8: Champ of 1 plays 8, 4v5, 3v6, 2v7.

Quick Friday Notes

2011-04-06T21:57:00.000-07:00

The GLCA got a whole lot less interesting, but there are still 2 matches of note on Friday that have big time NCAA significance. First, Cal Lutheran takes on Redlands. Both of these teams are playing to save their seasons. Lose this match and you have no shot at NCAAs, it's as simple as that. Obviously Redlands is looking for revenge after 2 losses to Cal Lutheran last year, and the Bulldogs have yet to put a top 20 win on their schedule. Redlands had high hopes coming into this season, but they haven't performed, and time is almost up. They need a convincing win here because this looks terrible at the moment. They made the tournament 17 straight years and now they are going to miss if for the 2nd year in a row. CLU is playing for pride at this point and they would love nothing more than to beat Redlands. I'm sure the Kingsmen will gear up for this and Redlands will have to play very well if they want to win.

In the Northeast, Bowdoin travels to MIT. MIT has notoriously fast courts so this could be a tricky match for the Polar Bears. But it's one they absolutely need to win with Pool C being so competitive this year. Bowdoin can't afford a loss in this, and likewise I think a win would really help their resume. MIT is playing at home with nothing to lose and I expect them to turn in a good performance. Bowdoin has to be careful not to look ahead to Amherst on Saturday and focus on the task at hand. I think a lot depends on if Sullivan can take over this match and get 2 wins for his team. If he does that, this could turn into a routine win for Bowdoin. But if the Engineers get ahead in doubles, this will turn into a tight one.

Kenyon Withdraws From GLCA

2011-04-06T16:41:00.000-07:00

In a surprising and controversial move, top seed and #7 Kenyon has withdrawn from this weekend's GLCA tournament citing injury concerns. I'm not going to pretend this isn't a controversial move, because it is, and I have mixed feelings about it. With Pool C being as competitive as it is, when you are in a winnable conference, your conference play and conference tournament are the most important things. Coach Thielke has told me that 3 of his top 4 players are banged up and he wishes to rest them for next week's match against Denison. If you look at the 2 through 6 seeds in this weekend's tournament, Kenyon has beaten 4 of the 5 teams, so they have to feel they don't have a lot to prove. The truth is Kenyon has nothing to gain by playing this weekend, because a victory does nothing for them, but a loss could move them down in the rankings, hurt their NCAA seeding, and add additional injuries to their players. From Kenyon's standpoint, this is an excellent move, but not everyone sees things that way.

The obvious question that comes to mind is: does this decision get made if Kenyon is ranked 13 or 14 and enters this tournament as the 2 or 3 seed? I don't know, but I'd have a hard time believing they would withdraw under those circumstances. People I've talked today say you have to go play no matter what. What if these were dual matches? You can't just cancel them. Kenyon has a large enough roster to fill the voids left by their injured players, so therefore they should go play and not duck their competition and be scared of losing. This is terrible news for Carnegie and DePauw. Carnegie now has to win the tournament this weekend and then go to UAAs and finish top 3, and it's an even worse situation for DePauw, who has to beat Rhodes and Trinity (TX) on back to back days to win the SCAC tournament and qualify for NCAAs. A win this weekend doesn't do much for the Tigers in my opinion.

It's a shame for the GLCA tournament who had 4 teams in the top 20 competing last year, including 2 in the top 10, and now the #1 seed is 17 in the country. I completely understand both sides of the argument here, and the move is open for interpretation.

Mid-Season Reports

2011-04-04T18:12:00.000-07:00

Lately, I haven't been focusing a lot of attention on individual teams and their specifics. With this post, I will be grading and evaluating all the play this spring on a team by team basis and hopefully uncover a few statistics behind why each team is doing what they are doing. When I refer to a player or doubles team's record, I mean their record against tough D3 competition, meaning teams who are ranked or close to ranked. I will use the most recent ITA rankings.

Denison
Key Wins: Carnegie Mellon
Losses: Chicago, Rhodes, Mary Washington, Emory
Analysis: Although Dension got a win on the road against CMU which I'm sure is their program's biggest win in several years, they can't be all that happy with their performance this year. This is a solid team that plays good doubles, but their singles have let them down. They led in doubles against UMW and Chicago and went on to lose 4 of 6 singles matches. 3 of their losses were very winnable and with that they have to be disappointed. I think they will judge their season by how they perform against Kenyon in the next month, but after seeing flashes of brilliance this season from the Big Red, I'm not impressed with their overall performance, highlighted by the Rhodes match.
Grade: C+

Rhodes
Key Wins: UT-Tyler, Denison
Losses: None
Analysis: Rhodes has done what was asked of them and for that they should be praised, but the fact remains that they haven't beaten anyone legitimate. This is a veteran team and I was quite impressed with the Denison win, but the fact remains they are untested. In my opinion, it's easier to get fired up for a couple big matches over the course of a season versus having to play great teams every week. Rhodes benefits from that and I expect them to enter the SCAC tournament with upsets in mind. A potential semifinal against DePauw will define their 2011 season and tell the country how good they really are.
Grade: A-

Mary Washington
Key Wins: Cal Lutheran, W&L, Swarthmore, Denison
Losses: Emory, Trinity (TX), Pomona-Pitzer, Whittier, CMU, Redlands, Bates, CMS
Analysis: Talked a lot about these guys and they are up and down. Player To Watch Sam Wichlin has a record of 7-15 playing at the top spot in both singles and doubles. This is a talented team who isn't meeting their potential and this has been going on for 3 years. They've got a solid top of the lineup and good depth, but can rarely put everything together on the same day. If you take out the California stretch, they aren't terrible, but a loss to Bates at home certainly isn't what I expected. This should be a top 20 team, but it looks like they will finish outside the top 20 for the 2nd year in a row.
Grade: D+

Whitman
Key Wins: Trinity (TX), Swarthmore
Losses: Kenyon, Tyler, Cal Lutheran, Bowdoin
Analysis: I've said it time and time again, this team would be a lot better if they were constantly tested. The talent is there as shown by their win over a top 10 program, but they turned around and lost 2 matches which I thought were very winnable against CLU and Tyler. The fact that they got outplayed by Tyler doesn't give me a ton of confidence in them, and I think they are ranked appropriately at 22. I thought the Trinity match could be a breakthrough, but they were fatigued by the end of their trip which is understandable. At this point, all they can do is sit back and win their conference and then pray that they don't get sent to California. 8-10 in doubles play isn't typical Whitman, but this team has a lot of room to grow.
Grade: B-

Bates
Key Wins: Kalamazoo, Mary Washington
Losses: Hopkins, MIT, Brandeis
Analysis: I said depth was an issue. They are 4-11 at the 4 through 6 singles spots and 1-4 at 3 doubles. You can't be a top 20 team if you only have half a team. I know they had high expectations for this season, but they've lost to 2 teams outside the top 20, including Brandeis who was ranked 30th on Saturday. I think they still have the potential to knock of Trinity (CT) because of the matchup, and like I said preseason, 5th in the NESCAC should be a victory for them. At the moment, this looks a typical Bates season where they expect results and don't get a lot. While they look well on their way to a 4th straight 6th place finish in the NESCAC, they still have time to turn things around.
Grade: C

MIT
Key Wins: Bates
Losses: Amherst
Analysis: Not a whole lot to say as the Engineers play a fairly soft schedule. I thought it was a great win for them to beat Bates, but when they moved to the big leagues they got walloped by Amherst. The match I have circled on my calendar to judge MIT is a date with Bowdoin in a few days. This is winnable for MIT and will show us whether or not they are truly top 20 material. This is a very talented team who will make the tournament through the independent pool, but I don't see them a serious threat to upset a top seed in their region. If they can manage to beat Bowdoin I'd be impressed, but I don't know what to make of this team at the moment.
Grade: B

DePauw
Key Win: Gustavus, Carleton
Losses: Chicago, Emory
Analysis: DePauw hasn't made as much noise as they usually do and this weekend's GLCA tournament will define their season. They don't have a top 25 win on their resume and unless they win GLCA, they won't be a Pool C contender. The Tigers are playing solid doubles with a 9-3 record and 2 of the losses coming to Emory. The story remains that they lost their biggest match of the season and they did after they swept doubles. No doubt this is a dangerous team as they swept Chicago who just swept Wash U. The positive for DePauw is that they have their conference tournament to fall back on if things don't work out. I actually expect a GLCA final appearance from them this weekend, but I don't know if they can take out Kenyon.
Grade: C

Cal Lutheran
Key Wins: Brandeis, Tyler, Whitman
Losses: CMU, UMW, NCW, Kenyon, Amherst, Bowdoin, Williams, Middlebury, CMS
Analysis: I know this isn't how they envisioned their season, but I absolutely commend the Kingsmen for their effort after the adversity they've faced. They could have gone into the tank, but they continue to give top teams trouble. One stat defines this season for the Kingsmen. They are 1-23 at 5 and 6 singles. That's just putting too much pressure on your top guys to win and that's why they don't have a top 20 win on their resume. Player To Watch Ray Worley is playing higher than his comfort zone and is 11-13 overall. I think a victory for CLU would be finishing 3rd in the conference and beating Redlands, but I expect a typical match from CLU, meaning they win at the top and lose 5-4. This is a dangerous team, potentially top 12, with Ballou, but he's not around and they have to deal with things the way they are.
Grade: B-

Carnegie Mellon
Key Wins: Cal Lutheran, W&L, Mary Washington
Losses: Emory, Santa Cruz, Kenyon, Denison, Johns Hopkins
Analysis: Things went downhill quickly. I don't know why it happened, but a 9-0 loss to Hopkins shows me they're done. They came into this season with high hopes coming off a program-best year in 2010, but this team has been terrible the past 6 weeks. I don't believe loss of seniors is an excuse; look at Kenyon. There are no reliable positions each match and they haven't been winning close matches like they usually do. Player To Watch Bobby Mactaggart is 1-15 on the season and he would need a miraculous turnaround to put CMU in the tournament. They're 8-16 in doubles and don't have enough players to dig out of holes every match. I expect a 3rd or 4th place finish from them at GLCA and they are lucky to escape a tricky UAA quarterfinal against Brandeis or Case Western. A promising start has turned into an absolute disaster and I'm not quite sure where to put the blame.
Grade: D

Redlands
Key Wins: Mary Washington, Skidmore, Gustavus Adolphus
Losses: Emory, Santa Cruz, Amherst, Trinity (CT), Williams, Middlebury, Pomona-Pitzer
Analysis: Looks like another mediocre year and NCAA tournament miss for the Bulldogs. I can understand the losses to top teams, but a loss to Trinity (CT) is bad for a team this talented. It looks like the P-P match last Saturday is the first time they showed fight and desperation, but the winning edge they used to have isn't there anymore. They don't have a top 20 win on their resume despite looking like a good team on paper. Player To Watch Anish Nanda is 2-14 on the season. He has been removed from the doubles lineup and demoted to 4 singles. This is not what Redlands needed. They were really expecting a turnaround this year and although it could still come, this seems like another massive disappointment for a team that isn't used to adversity and losing like this.
Grade: D

Chicago
Key Wins: Case Western, Whitewater, Gustavus, Denison, Kzoo, DePauw, Wash U
Losses: Kenyon, Emory
Analysis: Chicago has obviously turned their season around with a win against Wash U and although things looked grim at the beginning with a loss to Kenyon and a near loss to Denison, this team deserves a lot of credit for sticking with it. I expect them to enter the top 10 for the first time in program history when the next rankings are released, and they may very well find themselves in the Final 8 this year. They've put together a doubles record of 13-14 and manage to get contributions from all positions in the singles lineup. This remains a dangerous team who can beat anyone on any day, and if they can turn in a repeat performance against Wash U in a potential UAA semi, the country should be scared and I'll be flat out impressed. It's about time the Maroons stepped up and did something good.
Grade: A-

Bowdoin
Key Wins: Whitman, Skidmore, Cal Lutheran
Losses: Trinity (TX), Pomona-Pitzer
Analysis: Bowdoin has been solid this year. Nothing more and nothing less. They don't have a top 16 win on their resume, but they also have beaten the teams that they were supposed to beat, although I'm sure the Skidmore match was closer than they would have liked. With the emergence of Chicago, Bowdoin may need to make some noise in the NESCAC if they want to qualify for the tournament. 2 years ago, Oscar Pena was one of the best freshmen in the country, however last year's season-long injury clearly set him back, as he has turned in a record of 2-7 so far this spring. If he can find his game and become the elite player that he used to be, I think this team has the ability to rise to the next level. But as is, they don't have enough depth and they are nothing more than solid.
Grade: B

Trinity (CT)
Key Wins: Redlands
Losses: Pomona-Pitzer, Santa Cruz
Analysis: Although I think this team is still vulnerable and they will show it when they play Bates, Brandeis and Bowdoin, so far I can't criticize them because they've taken care of business. They played an unbelievable match against Redlands which was one of the closest matches I've ever seen. That shows me that this team has a ton of heart, unlike some Trinity (CT) teams of the past. On paper, they aren't really a top 15 team, but if they continue to win that's all that matters. I don't expect the Bantams to make the tournament this year with all of the stiff competition that they have, but for the lack of personnel, I think they are doing a great job at the moment.
Grade: B+

Johns Hopkins
Key Wins: Vassar, Bates, Kalamazoo, Carnegie Mellon, Swarthmore
Losses: Emory, NC Wesleyan
Analysis: Hopkins has shown vast improvement over their last couple matches and that's a great sign. They've blown out the teams they were supposed to, and put together great matches against CMU and Emory. The thing that bugs me is the NC Wesleyan match. They just didn't show up for singles, and maybe it's because NCW is in their head, but you just can't do that as a top team. Player To Watch Andy Hersh is 6-2, but has been removed from the doubles lineup. I like this JHU team because I think they have more depth than previous years, and as I've said, it's all mental for them. They will most likely be on the road for NCAAs and face a higher ranked team in the Sweet 16, but they love that underdog role and this could be their breakthrough year.
Grade: B-

NC Wesleyan
Key Wins: Cal Lutheran, Johns Hopkins, Christopher Newport
Losses: Wash U, Trinity (TX)
Analysis: In my opinion, one of the most dangerous teams in the country, as you don't really know what you're going to get. What they have yet to do, is really win a big time match against a great team in a pressure situation. They've proved that they beat Hopkins, but I have a feeling they may need to beat a top notch team to make the Final 8 again. I think this is a much better and more mature team than the one that showed up at Indoors, but we won't see their true colors again until NCAAs. At that point, we'll figure out how much they've grown. If they can get back to the Final 8, that's a fantastic accomplishment, and I definitely think they have the tools to do so. Where they are going to get wins is unpredictable, but the thing I like about this team is they don't really have any weak spots in the singles lineup. If their doubles is on, they will be tough.
Grade: B

Trinity (TX)
Key Wins: Mary Washington, NC Wesleyan, UT-Tyler, Bowdoin, Vassar
Losses: Santa Cruz (2), CMS, Wash U, Whitman, Pomona-Pitzer, Amherst
Analysis: Maybe I overrated Trinity (TX) heading into this season. The end result remains to be seen, but when you look at their current resume, it's not impressive. The fact that they beat NCW and played well at their Texas quad is a good sign, but they lost to Whitman. It's great they tested Wash U and Cruz, but they didn't win, and I hope coming just short isn't the story of the 2011 Trinity Tigers. Player To Watch Max Frey is 13-11, to go along with a team doubles record of 22-14. This is great, but all the teams are a little inconsistent and can't seem to get on the same page in the same day. Their entire lineup has had flashes of brilliance, but when you've lost against every top 10 team you've played and a team outside the top 20, it's hard to consider yourself a true national title contender. I expect them to win the conference and be dangerous in NCAAs, and for the sake of making me look good, I hope they make a Final 4 run.
Grade: C+

Williams
Key Wins: Redlands, Cal Lutheran
Losses: Pomona-Pitzer, Santa Cruz
Analysis: This isn't really a midseason report because the Ephs haven't played a ton. They define their season by NESCAC success, and I think they have a legitimate shot to get 2nd in NESCAC this year. They aren't a fantastic team as shown by their California losses, but they are a solid 9 or 10 in the country and will be a contender for a Final 8 spot depending on their NCAA regional. I've said before that this is the youngest team in the country, and that can show at times. Player To Watch Felix Sun is 5-3 so far, and the Ephs will need him to be an on court leader if they want success this year. The real tests for Williams will be against Bowdoin, Amherst and Middlebury and if they find themselves in the NESCAC title match and the Final 8 of NCAAs, that's a great accomplishment. If they don't, and miss the Final 8 2 years in a row, it could be a sign that the program is slipping. It's a thin line between success and failure for Williams right now.
Grade: B

Pomona-Pitzer
Key Wins: Whittier, Brandeis, Mary Washington, Trinity (TX), Tyler, Bowdoin, Skidmore, Trinity (CT), Williams, Redlands
Losses: Emory, Kenyon
Analysis: Their resume speaks for itself. Along with Kenyon, they are the biggest surprise of the year. The Hens are playing at a significantly higher level than anyone expected and with all their wins, have solidified themselves as a legitimate top 8 team. They are getting it done on the doubles court with a 27-9 overall record, although they have cooled off slightly in recent matches. The fact remains that they can play with anyone in the country and although I often count them out, they are a serious threat to win the SCIAC and the NCAA West regional. I think CMS and Cruz have taken notice, because P-P certainly has my attention. The impressive thing is their consistency. They proved that their Stag-Hen performance was no fluke and they have more quality wins than anyone in the country. I expect the Hens to finish strong and give whoever they play some serious trouble in NCAAs. If they had beaten Kenyon, they would have received an A+.
Grade: A

Kenyon
Key Wins: Chicago, Kalamazoo, Case Western, CMU, Vassar, Whitman, Pomona-Pitzer, CLU
Losses: CMS
Analysis: I'm shocked by how good they are. Look at the underlying story here and you see a team that was ranked 12 lose 4 starters and become #7. If that's not top notch development and coaching, I don't know what is. Kenyon's guys play with so much heart and are motivated every match. They were in slightly over their heads against CMS, but the fact that they have beaten everyone else they've played is impressive, including 2 potential top 10 finishers in Chicago and Pomona-Pitzer. They are the story of the year to me because I thought this team would be decimated. Player To Watch Jeremy Polster is 11-7 playing at the top of the lineup and Coach Thielke is well on his way to a well deserved Coach of the Year award for this. I see Kenyon earning the 5th or 6th overall seed in NCAAs. They could find themselves in their first ever Final 4 with a decent draw.
Grade: A+

Santa Cruz
Key Wins: Trinity (TX) (2), Carnegie Mellon, Swarthmore, Redlands, Trinity (CT), CMS, Williams
Losses: Wash U (2)
Analysis: Although they looked a bit sluggish at Indoors, the young 2011 Slugs are buying into Coach Hansen's motto of growing throughout a season. They've picked up their play significantly and are getting the job done everywhere in the lineup. Brian Pybas hasn't been quite as tough as last year, but I expect him to pick his play up heading to NCAAs. Player To Watch Erich Koenig is 13-6 with most of his losses coming early in the season. I'm impressed with Cruz all around and would not be surprised if they toppled CMS in NCAAs. I think a lot will depend on who gets the homecourt for NCAAs. This is a typical Slugs team that plays great doubles and gets the wins they need in singles. They have a doubles record of 21-9 and I'm most impressed with their 3 through 5 players in singles. Counting out Cruz in any match is a huge mistake and they are proving that this year. I think the losses to Wash U were wakeup calls, but the fact remains they won the biggest match of their regular season against CMS.
Grade: A-

Wash U
Key Wins: NC Wesleyan, Santa Cruz (2), Trinity (TX)
Losses: Emory, CMS, Chicago
Analysis: Wash U is performing about as I expected. I was impressed with their Indoors performance and their other win against Cruz, but other than that they haven't been all that special. Obviously they are 5th in the country which is impressive, but everything seemed to be smooth sailing until that Chicago loss. I can't remember the last time the Bears lost to a team outside the top 10. I thought the top 2 singles spots would be tough for Wash U and they have turned in a record of 7-7 which is pretty good. My overall view is that the Bears are very solid and play at a consistent level. You know what you are going to get from them. To beat Wash U, you either have to bring a ton of energy in doubles or a lights out singles lineup. I think they were overmatched against Emory and CMS and Chicago just played better doubles. I'm interested to see how the Bears respond at the UAA tournament.
Grade: B+

Amherst
Key Wins: Trinity (TX), Redlands, Cal Lutheran, MIT, Vassar, Skidmore
Losses: CMS
Analysis: The Jeffs literally have 14 guys that are legitimate starters on a top team. It's scary. But what matters are the top 6, and that wasn't enough to beat CMS. Austin Chafetz hasn't seen much playing time early in the season, so I'm assuming injuries may be a factor. If he gets to 100%, they are my pick to win nationals no matter what happens the rest of the season. Luis Rattenhuber has been somewhat of a disappointment after a lot of hype, because at the moment it doesn't look like Herst has someone that can win at 1 or a team that can win at 1 dubs. But the story with Amherst will be the same as the past 2 years. They will raise their game in May when NCAAs come around. They are going to raise their game to another level in a month and the question is if everyone else can keep up. Despite being 4 in the country, I still see them as the best team and no one will convince me otherwise. They got their early season loss out of the way and they are on the same path as the past 2 years, except now they have a much stronger team.
Grade: B

CMS
Key Wins: Brandeis, Mary Washington, Swarthmore, Kenyon, Skidmore, Amherst, Trinity (TX), Wash U, Gustavus, Whittier, Cal Lutheran
Losses: Emory, Santa Cruz
Analysis: With wins against 11 quality opponents, it's hard to criticize them, but there have been some chinks in the armor this spring. The Wash U match showed what a difference Robbie Erani can make, because he hasn't seen much action in singles. I believe he makes the singles lineup significantly stronger. The problem I see for CMS is that they are very good everywhere, but they aren't great anywhere. They don't have that automatic win like Emory, and they don't have Brian Pybas to count on for at least a win a match. They have to go out every match and grind, and that wears on you. In the past, I believe fatigue and mental toughness have been issues for them late-season. I was very surprised they lost that Cruz match. CMS always has a good regular season, but I can't really judge them until the season is over. Their NCAA performance will define them, especially since they are playing at home.
Grade: B

Emory
Key Wins: Mary Washington, Carnegie Mellon, Wash U, Redlands, Vassar, Pomona-Pitzer, CMS, Hopkins, DePauw, Denison, Chicago
Losses: None
Analysis: Emory is perfect this year and that's the bottom line. They've rebounded very nicely since last year and head into UAAs as a heavy favorite. As usual, the support is coming from the top of the lineup. Player To Watch Colin Egan is 19-1, and Pottish, Goodwin and Egan are a combined 32-0 in singles play. That is just unstoppable. A lot of these stats get thrown out the window in the heat of the moment at NCAAs, but that's impressive and can't be ignored by Emory's opponents. Everyone knows where Emory is vulnerable and that's doubles, but there's a lot of pressure for the Eagles opponents to win in doubles, because they know they are going to lose if Emory gets ahead. It's a nice luxury to have 2 great players, but taking advantage isn't so easy and Emory has done that perfectly. They should head into NCAAs confident and will obviously be a serious threat to win it.
Grade: A+

Middlebury
Key Wins: Redlands, Gustavus, Cal Lutheran, Brandeis
Losses: None
Analysis: The defending national champs haven't been tested yet, and this isn't a mid-season report for them either. They remain at #1 in the country from last season, but they certainly haven't looked impressive so far. It was good for this young team to play some tough matches, but they don't have a top 15 win on their resume yet and that means they are unpredictable going forward. They took care of business against Redlands, but compare that to what Cruz and Emory were able to do against Redlands. I know better than to count them out in NESCAC play especially since they have had Amherst's number in the past. I can see them finishing anywhere between 1st and 4th in NESCAC play, but as I've said, Midd is Midd and they are always a threat. I really can't make a judgment on them yet, but I am looking forward to regular season matches against the other top NESCAC teams.
Grade: B+

Weekend Recap and the Next Few Days

2011-04-03T19:15:00.000-07:00

Before I get into Saturday's results, today in Baltimore Hopkins beat Carnegie Mellon 9-0. This was most likely a little bit of CMU being terrible and Hopkins being tough. The doubles were not close and clearly set the tone for the match, although there were a few close singles matches. For a real rivalry match, this was disappointing. Concerning Hopkins, they seem to have rebounded nicely after their loss to NCW. The bad news for the Blue Jays is that the NCAA regional top seed isn't coming this year. They don't have any top 20 teams on the remainder of their schedule, so they have to hope for a nice regional. I could see a potential Sweet 16 match between them and Williams, but it's really too early to tell. They aren't in a great spot, but to their benefit, I think they will go into NCAAs somewhat unnoticed and they could sneak up on a top 10 opponent on the right day. Carnegie continues to disappoint. I made a statement in their season preview that they are going to prove that you have to recruit every year or you'll fall off. That is certainly proving true. While they still have opportunities on their schedule that would put them in NCAAs, they have shown nothing post-Indoors to prove that they are a top 20 team, let alone a potential Pool C qualifier. Final 8 to missing the tournament is not good, and this embarrassing loss may have put the icing on the cake for this lost season.

A quick note on a Saturday match, Brandeis finally got a win against a ranked opponent and upset Bates in a 6-3 win. The Judges looked tough in this and I think they could be dangerous against some of the top NESCAC teams as well as in the UAA tournament. Bates needs to rebound, because I still they have a shot to beat Trinity (CT), which would be a big win for them. Really good win for Brandeis and it's good to see them meeting their potential this year. Next up on Saturday, Pomona-Pitzer hung on and beat Redlands in another thriller for the Hens. Both of these teams have played some very close matches this season and this was no exception. The difference is the Hens have had that mental toughness and winning edge, whereas Redlands hasn't. PP has been so tough in close matches all season, you could just sense they were going to pull this out even after a 2-1 deficit in doubles. Another great win for PP; this has to be the first time in a while that they've beaten Redlands. I would expect these 2 to meet again in the SCIAC semifinal in a couple week, but both need to put their attention on the other conference foes in front of them. PP is safely in the tournament and the Bulldogs are certainly on the outside looking in after Chicago's win against Wash U.

Wash U never comes into a match unprepared. I believe this is no exception. Chicago just beat them. Marty Perry, and the rest of the country for that matter, have been waiting for this result for the past 4 years. I don't believe Chicago has ever beaten a team in the top 10, and to do it against Wash U is a fantastic accomplishment. The flip side is that I can't remember the last time Wash U lost to a team outside the top 10. The Maroons had been struggling with doubles all season, and finally they came to life at the right time and jumped on a Wash U team who just wasn't ready for the level that Chicago brought. Their talent finally showed, and they managed to get the 2 singles wins they needed for the win. Looking at Chicago's overall resume, it's actually quite impressive. Their only losses are to Emory and Kenyon, and at the moment, I see them at 8 or 9 in the country, which not only puts them in the tournament, but puts them in line to be a top seed in their NCAA regional. Now, it looks to me like 5 Pool C spots could be filled, leaving only 1 spot for several teams. This win kind of shifts the power away from the NESCAC, as they don't really control their own destiny anymore. I'll be interested to see what the UAA seeding looks like, because there's a massive difference between the 2 and 3 seed. 2 gets an easy match against NYU, whereas 3 most likely has to play a very dangerous Brandeis team, who also happens to be hosting the tournament. Wash U has to be a little shocked, but there's nothing to worry about for them. I don't see their ranking being hurt by this, and everyone still knows they are a great team. This will probably make them hungrier heading into the last third of their season, and I'm really looking forward to a potential UAA semifinal rematch between these 2. Chicago has the opportunity to derail a 6th straight Emory-Wash U UAA final, but I'm sure the Bears have other ideas.

This is a slow week, so Monday and Tuesday I'll be doing mid-season report cards for the top 25 teams. I'll try to knock off 13-25 Monday and 1-12 Tuesday. For Wednesday, I'm going to make an attempt at a first issue of bracketology, and on Thursday, I'll have a preview of the weekend. I've been focusing a lot on big picture stuff and NCAAs the last few weeks, but for these midseason report, I'll try to piece together some interesting statistics and look at where each team is strong and weak.

Saturday Updates

2011-04-02T14:03:00.000-07:00

Chicago d. Wash U 5-4
Carnegie d. W&L 6-3
Trinity (TX) d. Tyler 8-1
Pomona-Pitzer d. Redlands 5-4
CMS d. CLU 6-3
Amherst d. Vassar 8-1
Brandeis d. Bates 6-3

Results Update/ITA Rankings

2011-03-31T21:20:00.000-07:00

Not a ton has happened this week. Only 2 things worth discussing in my opinion, the first of which is the beginning of Midd's season, and secondly Cruz blasting Williams today. Midd has looked far from impressive, but with the exception of last year's national championship team, they are rarely good in California. They didn't schedule CMS or Pomona-Pitzer and they got lucky there, but they had solid wins against Redlands and Cal Lu. They played great doubles against CLU and great singles against Redlands, so they are clearly a well rounded team. They will be tested next weekend against Trinity (CT) who's currently sitting at a respectable 13 in the country. Midd passed the early part of their schedule, but I wouldn't say they did it with ease.

The Slugs are looking tough. They came in today's rankings at #6, which I personally thought was low, but they are playing as well as anyone in the country right now. Williams has been playing good tennis in California so far and Cruz just took them to school in doubles. They are off D3 play for 2 weeks until they play Pomona-Pitzer, but I'm worrying a little bit if I'm CMS. Not only do they have to beat Cruz, they may have to do it on the road. That will be quite a debate among the committee as to who hosts the West region, but like I said before, I endorse Cruz because of the head to head win. The Slugs have turned it on since Indoors and I'm anxious to see how they finish because they've pulled this before where they start slow and sneak up on everyone and win a national title. They have the mental edge on CMS after Texas. Barring any weird upsets, Williams is in a really good spot as they currently hold the spot at the 7th #1 seed for NCAA regionals. I don't see Trinity (TX), NCW or Hopkins passing them, so as long as they go back home and manage wins against Bowdoin, Bates and Trinity (CT), they should head into NCAAs in a great spot.

Rankings were released today and I have no complaints again. If anything, I think Cruz may be a bit low, but I'm not sure how I would redo 3 through 6 to make it better. Cruz did lose to Wash U twice. Herst hasn't beaten anyone, but they haven't been playing for very long and only lost to CMS on the road.

Pool C looks like:
Wash U
NESCAC 2
Pomona-Pitzer
Williams

Those 4 seem like locks at this point. Of course this is barring any crazy upsets. After them you have, in order:

Trinity CT
Bowdoin
Chicago
Redlands
Carnegie
CLU
DePauw

Only 2 spots available for those 7. Trinity and Bowdoin are in great shape because they are protected from out of conference competition. As long as they both manage wins against Bates and MIT, all they need to do is root against the teams below them. Chicago has Wash U this weekend and then probably again in the UAA semi. I don't know if they need to win one of those or not, too early to tell. Chicago most likely takes on CMU in UAA 3rd place, and I don't know if a win over the Tartans would be enough to have them jump one of the NESCACs (obviously a lot depends on how the NESCACs finish also). That will be an interesting scenario, but Chicago could make life a lot easier with a win against Wash U, which I think is doable for them. Redlands needs to beat Pomona-Pitzer. Either this weekend or in SCIAC tournament. They have no other way out. Not enough teams will fold for the Bulldogs to make it. I think CMU is the wildcard in all of this. This is a great team that had a bad loss. They've got Hopkins on Sunday and will play DePauw and possibly Kenyon next weekend. I think they've got to beat either Hopkins or Kenyon if they want to make the tournament, and beating Chicago is a must. I don't think a win against DePauw and then a win against Chicago does it for them. Hopkins and Kenyon are 2 teams they beat last year, so anything is possible. It would be a shame to see them miss the tournament after their great season last year.

In my opinion, only 3 real matches of note this weekend, all of which I've touched on. The first is Chicago @ Wash U. I got an email today that this is a USTA Kids Day, where local kids come and watch a college match. I wonder if this will cause Chicago tone down their on-court antics, although I doubt it. Also on Saturday, a huge match out West between Pomona-Pitzer and Redlands. Pool C teams have to be cheering hard for the Hens in this so the Bulldogs don't become a factor in Pool C. I know Ben Belletto has been aching to beat Redlands for years now, so I expect his guys to be ready for this big rivalry match. The Bulldogs are going through the motions and time is running out for them. This is their time to make something happen. A win like this could salvage a rough season to date so I expect Redlands to bring their A game. Lastly, Carnegie travels to Hopkins on Sunday in one of my preseason matches to watch. I like Hopkins in this, but it could get interesting since this is a heated rivalry. JHU hasn't done much this year and CMU has to be somewhat desperate at this point. JHU is probably playing for a nice NCAA region whereas the Tartans are playing for their tournament life. This win could put CMU right back in the heart of the Pool C picture.

Recruiting Update and Thoughts on Coaching

2011-03-31T20:01:00.000-07:00

D3 has been getting an increased amount of attention lately and I believe a lot of higher ranked players are considering it as an option. The past 2 days, tennisrecruiting.net has ran 2 articles about current high school seniors who have committed to play D3.

Colette Lewis talks to Jonathan Cypers about Amherst

Rhiannon Potkey talks to Warren Wood about CMS

I think Wood's article in particular touches on the best parts of D3. You can't be concerned about status and bragging to your friends about D1. Play a high level of tennis where you can be a top player and compete for a national title instead. Another note is that 5-star Johnny Wang has signed with Carnegie Mellon next year, joining Wood as the only 5-stars to be entering D3 this year. Wang will be a good addition to a team that's losing 2 key seniors.

On the coaching forefront, I was informed last night that Luther head coach Brian Huinker will be stepping down after 10 seasons as head coach. He will be going into consulting. Coaching is something that I probably don't give enough attention to. My view is that a bad coach can't destroy a talented team, but a good coach can make a huge difference. Huinker built a solid program at Luther and I would hope they go after a big name coach to replace him. At a school like Luther, I feel like you need a name that will catch the attention of junior players, because there's not much appeal academically or location-wise. Luther is most known for their NCAA Sweet 16 appearance in 2009 and could be a sought after job because the base is there to turn this into a consistent top 25 program. It's not necessarily a bad thing if you hire a coach who won't be there in 5 years because that probably means he took your program, made it better, and moved to bigger things. That's how college coaching works. In D3 tennis, coaches don't exactly get forced out if they don't win, although I find it distressing that there are academically good schools that could have great tennis teams and they just have coaches that don't care. Look at Case Western, that team has done a 360 in the past couple years and it's purely because of a coach. I think it's terrible that someone can just go to work and collect a paycheck and not care about winning when they are sitting on a goldmine. Just as a general trend the next couple years, I expect to see a lot of D3 coaching vacancies filled with D1 assistants. Other schools have to see Chris Garner at Amherst and think that may work for them. While I don't expect Luther to steal someone from Ohio State, I would expect them to potentially look at assistants in the bottom half of the Big 10 or possibly the MAC to try to fill their vacancy. I personally think that's their best bet and the alternative would be to go after a high level player who just finished college and wants to get into coaching. I'll be interested to see what they come up with, but the bottom line is as D3 gets better, the level of coaching also needs to improve.

Weekend Recap

2011-03-28T20:53:00.000-07:00

The NCAA picture gets clearer and that’s what I’ll focus on in this post. I’ll begin in San Antonio with the Texas quad which produced a ton of drama over the weekend. To start, despite going winless, I think Trinity has a lot to be happy about. This is more along the lines of the Tigers team I was expecting this season. They played very good doubles all weekend and their singles was very good in their last 2 matches. They were points away from winning against Cruz and Wash U, so even though they didn’t win, they should come away from this weekend with their heads held high. I think they sent a message to the country that they are dangerous and can beat anyone on any given day. The doubles sweep isn’t coming now, but it may come at NCAAs. The potential is there and if the Tigers are on, watch out for them. I think they will continue to get better over the next few weeks and will be a serious threat in May. They are pretty much done with D3 action until their conference tournament and I expect to see them at 10 in the country in Thursday’s rankings. They will be right on the border for a top seed in their NCAA region, so we will see what happens. Next is Wash U who continues to impress. I have nothing but praise for this team at the moment despite the loss to CMS. I see them at 3 or 4 in the country on Thursday, which is incredible for a team that lost key players in Watts and Levy. Roger Follmer continues to do an outstanding job with this team and they proved they can play with anyone. I think they will give Emory a real test at UAAs and I can see them heading to NCAAs as the #2 or #3 overall seed, which would be much better than I expected from them. Cruz is Cruz and as I said in an Indoors preview, they just know when to step up. That win over CMS was massive because even though they may be below the Stags in the rankings, I like the Slugs to get chosen as the host for the NCAA West Regional because of the head to head win over their regional rival. ITA rankings and NCAA brackets don’t go hand in hand, and if I was making the bracket, I have Cruz hosting. The thing they have to be careful of is their match against Pomona-Pitzer as well as Williams, because losing those could get them in trouble. I see Cruz at 5 on Thursday, which is really great for them. It will be significantly more difficult for CMS to go up to Santa Cruz and win at regionals versus playing on their home courts. This make things very interesting and it’s possible the Stags won’t get a chance to play the Final 8 at their place again this year. I really look forward to a potential NCAA Sweet 16 match between these 2, but I know not to count out P-P. I’m very surprised CMS lost to Cruz, because they knew the significance of that match. I bet if you told them they could only 1 win match and Texas and had to lose the other 2, they would have picked Cruz to beat. I expect them at 3 or 4 in the country on Thursday, but I really think they will have to travel for NCAAs, which is not what they wanted. The Slugs took their game to another level in singles and despite their talent, CMS couldn’t match it and Cruz got wins at some spots where I didn’t think they had a chance. In conclusion, Texas was just amazing tennis start to finish. A ton of close matches, but that’s what you get when 4 of the best teams in the country get together. Looking at other Friday results, Emory had a good win over Chicago and they are off from D3 play until the UAA tournament. We will see what Middlebury does, but I think it’s highly likely they lose at least once to Amherst, which would make Emory the #1 team in the country. If they win the UAA tournament, they should enter NCAAs as the #1 overall seed, which could give them a very nice first few rounds. The Eagles have had a great season and remain undefeated in D3 play despite some scares. I see Chicago at #7 in Pool C right now, with NESCAC teams holding the 4 through 6 spots. Meaning Williams, Trinity (CT) and Bowdoin. This means that the Maroons need to do something if they want to make NCAAs because I don’t think you can count on NESCACs handing away their NCAA spot. They are now back in New England and protected from out-of-conference opponents. When I say do something, I mean they have to beat Wash U, or beat Carnegie Mellon plus hope for some help. If I’m Chicago, I root for Bates to knock off Bowdoin or Trinity (CT), because that could push the Maroons to the #6 spot in Pool C. Chicago also has to root for Pomona-Pitzer against Redlands, because a Bulldogs win in that match could push the Bulldogs past the Maroons in Pool C. Also on Friday, Trinity (CT) beat Redlands in what was one of the closest D3 matches I’ve ever seen. I believe there were 4 matches that were 7-5 or a breaker in 3rd. That’s just incredible. I underestimated the Bantams and they sure showed a lot of fight in this one. They put themselves in an amazing spot for NCAAs, because as I just said they now make the tournament if they just hold serve and do what they are supposed to. I see them at 12 or 13 in the country on Thursday, which is excellent for them. I think this win shows that they are a contender this year and could surprise one of the top NESCAC teams. However, I do think they are susceptible to an upset. They have to root against the other Pool C teams, but a win against Bowdoin would almost lock them in the tournament. This was a terrible loss for Redlands because they are now in huge trouble. They had another chance against Williams for redemption but lost there as well. The Bulldogs need to beat either Middlebury tomorrow or Pomona-Pitzer. The way the Hens are playing, this isn’t likely. I see Redlands sitting at 16 or 17 in the country as the 8th team in Pool C. That means they have to make something happen to get back into the NCAA picture. Their season could be over very soon. A win over CLU won’t do it; they need to beat P-P, and they may get 2 cracks at the Hens. The loss to Denison wasn’t bad for Carnegie, it was horrible. I don’t really get it either. This same CMU team went to Indoors and beat a full strength CLU team and then was points away from beating Cruz. Obviously the talent is there. This had to be a combination of them being completely unprepared as well as Denison coming in with a nothing to lose attitude. Denison is solid, but besides this match they haven’t done anything good this Spring. They will move into the rankings but will sit between 25 and 30. I expected them to go out and beat Mary Wash on Saturday, but they didn’t. I just don’t understand this result at all. CMU now has a lot of work to do to make the tournament. They still have a lot of chances, and I think their best chance is winning the GLCA tournament. That would potentially put wins over DePauw and Kenyon on their resume, and I think a win against the Lords could be enough for them to leapfrog Bowdoin or Trinity (CT) in Pool C. And obviously for CMU, beating Chicago in UAAs is an absolute must. They were in the driver’s seat, but now, just like Redlands, they need to make something happen. Their season could be over in 3 weeks and as a Pool C team you can’t afford losses like this. That’s why I’m surprised the players and the coaching staff let it happen. I thought they had turned a corner and moved into elite status, but this weekend shows me they are back to their old underachieving ways. Against Mary Wash, Wichlin didn’t play and CMU barely got the win, so they are lucky there. They need to regroup and re-evaluate if they want to be in the postseason because they are not good right now. I do think the potential is there, they just need to find their Indoors form and play with some desperation. A last thought on tennis: Midd struggled a bit against CLU in singles. I’m very interested to see how the Panthers do against Redlands because that’s a real danger match for them. Good stuff by Midd in doubles against CLU, but I was surprised to see Midd lose 3 matches after Williams swept CLU in singles. An incident happened at the Washington & Lee – Christopher Newport match on Saturday which makes you realize just how insignificant tennis is. Will Hall of W&L suffered a severe leg injury that required him to be rushed to the emergency room and have immediate surgery. I won’t get into details, because honestly, just reading about it made me sick to my stomach. I wish him the best on a speedy recovery and my thoughts are with he and the W&L program. Freak accidents like this shouldn’t happen in tennis and it’s very unfortunate that a talented player like that may have his tennis career ended by such a terrible tragedy

Weekend Updates

2011-03-26T10:41:00.000-07:00

Hopkins d. Kzoo 7-2
Wash U d. Cruz 5-4
CMS d. Trinity (TX) 7-2
Emory d. Chicago 7-2
Trinity (CT) d. Redlands 5-4...best match of the year?
Denison d. Carnegie Mellon 6-3...yes this is correct.

Washington & Lee d. CNU 7-2
Cruz d. CMS 5-4
Mary Washington d. Denison 5-4
Amherst d. MIT 9-0
Pomona-Pitzer d. Trinity (CT) 7-2
Wash U d. Trinity (TX) 5-4
Williams d. Redlands 6-3

CMS d. Wash U 6-3
Cruz d. Trinity (TX) 5-4
Carnegie Mellon d. Mary Wash 5-4
Williams d. Cal Lu 7-2
Midd d. Cal Lu 6-3

California Controversy and Weekend Preview Part 2

2011-03-25T05:23:00.001-07:00

First I want to discuss some controversy that occurred in California today. Cal Lutheran and Trinity (CT) were originally scheduled to play their match this past weekend in Santa Cruz. Inclement weather postponed the match and Cal Lu never made the trip up to Nor Cal. Trinity began their trip there and since they were scheduled to be in the northern part of the state for a few days, they decided to stick around and play Cruz Monday night with their other matches being canceled or postponed. Trinity then made their way south and rescheduled the Cal Lu match for Thursday. I believe most teams typically stay in Claremont, which is about 1.5 to 2 hours away from Thousand Oaks, where CLU is located. Thursday morning, apparently Trinity’s staff called CLU and said they weren’t coming because of inclement weather. They didn’t want to make the long trip and end up not playing. I heard about this at 10am PST and checked the weather. It was 60 with a 30% chance of rain until 6pm PST and a 40% chance after that. The match was scheduled at 2pm. Granted, I’ve only heard CLU’s side of the story, but this seems a bit odd to me. You travel across the country to play important matches and now you don’t want to go play? What are you going to do instead during that day? At least make the trip there and see if the weather holds out, which it did. There was no rain. I don’t want to accuse anyone of anything, but it’s clear what this looks like and that’s Trinity protecting their weak team this year. What’s done is done and the match isn’t being rescheduled.

There are 10 matches this weekend, but I don’t expect many to be competitive. A few that I’ll just mention are Hopkins-Kalamazoo, Trinity (CT)-PP and NC Wesleyan-Washington & Lee. These all have heavy favorites and I don’t expect much of a match from any of them.

That being said, there are 7 matches which have the potential to be semi-competitive. Amherst begins the New England part of their season with a good test against MIT, who I believe is undefeated in D3 play. The Engineers have talent, but obviously Amherst will be too much. I think this will be a good gauge for MIT to see where they stand against the best in the country. Amherst should win easily, but I expect some close matches. In Virginia, we have a regional rivalry between 2 teams who are struggling at the moment, Washington & Lee and Christopher Newport. W&L won’t get beaten up by NCW until Sunday, and this match occurs Saturday. W&L took out top conference rival Hampden-Sydney recently, so they have a handle on their conference, but they just aren’t very good right now. A shorthanded CNU recently lost to Swarthmore so they are desperately in need of some confidence if they want to have any shot at NCW in the USA South. Newport really should be ranked, but they probably won’t be if they lose this. They’ve got some good players but can’t put it all together, and W&L is a similar story.

Cal Lutheran has double NESCAC duty on Sunday as they take on Williams in the morning and Middlebury in the afternoon. CLU just doesn’t have enough depth to hang with teams this good, but they will be good tests for the Kingsmen’s top players. I expect fairly routine 6-3 or 7-2 in both of these. I’m anxious to see Midd play against a solid team and this is a perfect warm-up for the Panthers. CLU should be pleased getting 6 points total between these 2 matches, they just don’t have the talent at the moment to match up with the NESCAC powerhouses. These are both top 10 teams and I think CLU has cemented themselves in that 18-22 range.

That leaves the 3 matches I’m most looking forward to. First, Trinity (CT) continues their spring break and takes on Redlands. Due to cancellations, the only ranked D3 team the Bantams have played is Cruz and they got crushed. The strange thing is Redlands had a nearly identical match result with Cruz. I like Redlands in this, but I don’t want to count out Trinity too early. I’d say the loser of this is most likely out of the picture for NCAAs as they probably move back to 9th and possibly 10th in Pool C. I think Redlands will play strong doubles and have too much depth in a much needed win. Next is Chicago at Emory in a match of arguably the 2 most hated teams in the country. One thing I guarantee is that Chicago isn’t scared of anyone, so playing an undefeated team on the road won’t intimidate them. Chicago has talent, but Emory has more, which should result in a comfortable 6-3 win for the Eagles. I definitely think the Maroons can hang, but they are a few days late because Hopkins was the team that gave Emory their wake up call. The Eagles will be prepared for Chicago and I expect Pottish and Goodwin to dominate after shaky performances on Wednesday. This is Emory’s last D3 match until the UAA tournament.

I think the biggest match of the weekend is William at Redlands. These are 2 teams that are in Pool C and could really use a win. I’ve said before that Redlands needs to beat someone above them, and with the way Pomona-Pitzer is playing, this may be their best chance. I think the Bulldogs match up well and they beat Williams 2 years ago in a close 5-4. This is also a match Williams doesn’t want to lose because then they will have to claw their way back into the NCAA tournament picture. I think Redlands needs this more than Williams, and when these 2 get together you know it’s going to be a good one.

Weekend Preview: San Antonio and Pittsburgh

2011-03-23T21:13:00.001-07:00

Wash U's Adam Putterman, courtesy ITA

19 important matches happening during easily the biggest weekend of the season. I'm going to split it up into 2 different previews and tonight I'll be discussing 4 teams meeting in San Antonio and 3 teams meeting in Pittsburgh.

San Antonio Schedule (All Times Eastern)

Current National Rankings: #4 CMS, #5 Wash U, #6 Cruz, #11 Trinity (TX)

Friday: 11AM, Wash U vs. UC Santa Cruz, 330PM CMS @ Trinity (TX)
Saturday: 11AM CMS vs. Cruz, 3PM Wash U @ Trinity (TX)
Sunday: 11AM Wash U vs. CMS, 1230PM Cruz @ Trinity (TX)

A huge weekend that all of these teams had circled on their calendar as soon as the schedule was made. The home team currently has the lowest national ranking, but that can all be thrown out the window at this point because Trinity has a significant home court advantage on outdoor courts that are probably faster than their opponents are accustomed to. Blog readers like the Stags to go undefeated this weekend, but I'm not so sure about that. I don't even want to try to predict each of these matches, but I will say that I don't expect anyone to come away winless. CMS has the best chance of emerging unbeaten, but I know Trinity isn't going to just lie down because they had a rocky start to the season. 2 of the 6 matches will be rematches from Indoors, both involving Cruz, so I'll be interested to see how those results change since 6 weeks ago. Last time Trinity hosted this in 2008, Williams, Wash U and CMS came to San Antonio. If I'm not mistaken, all 4 teams were top 8 in the country at the time. CMS ended up going 0-3 and no one came away undefeated with Trinity, Williams and Wash U all going 2-1. WU went on to win the national title and CMS finished 3rd. I don't expect a repeat of that, but it's important to remember that it's hard to be in top form 3 days in a row, and when you are playing tough opponents like this, getting up for matches and preparation play a huge role that can't accurately be measured. Coach McMindes is well aware that his team needs to make a statement this weekend and I expect them to do it. They had a rocky start to the season as expected, but it's time for them to turn it on. CMS wants to establish themselves as a front runner in the national title race and they also want to make sure that they host the NCAA West regional. The CMS-Cruz match is a highlight of every season and should be fantastic. Cruz comes in not having been really tested in a while, but they typically improve throughout a season very quickly. Cruz is dangerous as always this weekend and they are putting their 8 match winning streak against Trinity on the line. Cruz lost to Wash U at Indoors and lost to CMS twice last year, so I think the Slugs have something to prove against both of those opponents. To me, Wash U is the real wildcard here. They win with doubles and depth, a combo that worked for them at Indoors. They are a high energy team who is very fit and will surely be in top shape all 3 days. I know I picked them 7th in preseason, but the way they played at Indoors they are very tough to beat. I expect 6 great matches and a lot of drama in what really is a simulation of the 3 day stretch that is the NCAA Final Rounds.

Pittsburgh Schedule (All Times Eastern)

Current National Rankings: #8 Carnegie Mellon, #25 Mary Washington

Friday: 4PM Denison @ Carnegie Mellon
Saturday: 12PM Denison vs. Mary Washington
Sunday: 11AM Mary Washington @ Carnegie Mellon

Live Stats

CMU is the favorite to dominate this weekend and they have traditionally been very tough at home over the past few seasons. They haven't seen D3 action in a couple weeks and I think they also realize that these are must-wins. They're ranked 8th in the country, but they do have a 1-3 record against ranked D3 teams this year. Granted their losses are to #3, #6 and #7, but they are lacking in the wins category. These matches would really help, because after all, they are competing for a Pool C spot. Sitting in the top 10, it's hard to foresee the fact that it's possible you don't make the tournament at all. CMU has pretty much no margin for error and although they have a long way to go, they can't slip up, especially this weekend. I don't want to get into specific NCAA scenarios, but a loss here may drop them back to 17th or 18th in the national rankings, which is something they absolutely cannot afford. That being said, this is a really good team that had Cruz on the ropes and beat a full strength CLU squad. They are 8 in the country for a reason and I expect them to show that this weekend. They play a Denison squad who is coming off a 7-2 loss against 26th ranked Rhodes, but remember that Denison was points away from beating Chicago only 7 weeks ago. Denison can play solid doubles and if CMU doesn't come prepared, they can get in trouble quickly and not be able to escape with a win. The Tartans have to respect these opponents despite their rankings and recent results. I've said plenty about Mary Wash these past few weeks and they are coming off a 7-2 loss to 23rd ranked Bates, but the fact that they look good on paper hasn't changed. This remains a talented team and the past 3 years they have played some very tight matches against Carnegie. CMU's 8th ranked team only beat #22 Mary Wash 5-4 last year, so this is another danger match for the home team. The Saturday match just serves as a confidence booster as Denison looks to improve for their upcoming shot against conference rival Kenyon, and UMW looks to move toward extending their conference streak to 13 consecutive titles. The bottom line is if CMU shows up this weekend, they will take care of business, but that is much easier said than done.

Reviewing 4 Close Matches On Tue/Wed

2011-03-23T19:45:00.001-07:00

The past 2 days were certainly not lacking in drama. First I want to talk about today's match that saw Johns Hopkins travel to Emory in a 6-3 victory for the Eagles that was much closer than expected. For those who haven't seen it, check the box score to the right in the latest news section. Emory was lucky to win. This match says several things, but I don't want to read too much into it. First of all, I would bet Emory went in overconfident, knowing that they stand as the best team in the country and Hopkins was just beaten solidly by NC Wesleyan 2 days ago. The Eagles had to think they would run through this match, but they were very wrong. I think this is great for Emory because it's a wake up call. It shows them that they are susceptible to doubles sweep on any day and they are far from invincible. I'm sure a few points here and there could have given Hopkins a win. The Eagles pulled this out and they now know they have to be on their heels against pretty much anyone in the top 15. I thought the top 3 were on a different level than everyone else, but maybe that's not the case. The bottom line is this is the toughest match Emory's played all season, even tougher than CMS and Wash U. Emory was clutch and managed to survive, and I think this match helps them a lot going forward. I wasn't sure what to make of Hopkins performance when comparing this to the NCW match, but I got an email with a good idea. Hopkins doesn't perform when there are expectations. Looking at the past several years, every time you expect something from JHU, they fold. And when there are no expectations, such as this match, they do very well. That doesn't seem to be an easily fixable problem; Hopkins doesn't play well as the favorite. This match result shows me they have the talent to play with anyone in the country, but they are inconsistent. The Bishops rolled them in singles on Monday, and no disrespect to NCW, but I think Emory is a stronger team than NCW. Something clicked for Hopkins today, and this match has to give them confidence moving forward.

Tuesday's results are posted below in the previous post. Bowdoin took care of Cal Lu as expected. They had too much depth and it showed. The same thing happens to Cal Lu every match, and the truth is they would really be a dangerous team with Ballou. Right now they've got 3 guys who can win in Giuffrida, Wilson and Sousa and that's not enough to beat solid top 15 opponents. The Kingsmen are good, they just don't have the complete team to compete at the highest level this year. They need to do some serious recruiting for next year because their current personnel aren't getting the job done. Bowdoin has to be very happy with their trip. I think they performed quite well and got their young guys some valuable experience. I expect them to be sitting at 14 in the country in the next rankings which should put them as the 6th Pool C team for the time being. This is a typical Bowdoin year; a very solid team who's dangerous against anyone. I think they can go home quite satisfied with their performance and I expect them to keep up the high level in NESCAC play.

In DePauw-Chicago, we saw our first comeback from an 0-3 hole in doubles this season as the Maroons were swept but went on to win 5 first sets and hold on in all of those matches. A much-needed win for Chicago, and when you look at the Maroons resume, it's actually fairly solid this year. This win kept their NCAA hopes alive, but they still need to make something happen. They either need to take out Wash U in their regular season match or take at least 3rd in the UAA tournament, which would mean a win over Carnegie. When the next rankings out, barring any meltdowns from anyone or any unexpected wins from Redlands, I see Chicago sitting at 7th in Pool C right behind Bowdoin. The Polar Bears are going to pad their resume with wins most likely when they take on MIT, Bates and Trinity (CT). Chicago has to match that with a big win of their own because they don't have the amount of ranked wins that Bowdoin will have. The Maroons did a good job in this, but they still have work to do. DePauw is in a big hole right now and I think they may need to go and win the GLCA tournament, and at the very least beat Carnegie in a probable semifinal. They do have their conference tournament to fall back on, but they will have to beat a very good Rhodes team and then Trinity (TX) on back to back days. This was a match DPU needed to win and their NCAA hopes look grim at the moment. Chicago's talent showed in this match in singles and I think it's good for the Maroons to finally get a win against a big time program.

I predicted a win for Pomona-Pitzer against Williams and I was correct, but not in the fashion I expected. Williams has to be pleased with their doubles play against a team that took 2 of 3 from Emory and Kenyon this season. They just didn't get the job done in singles and I think PP's experience paid off. This is not a bad loss at all for the Ephs as PP is ranked ahead of them, but Williams needs to put this behind them because they have Redlands, CLU and Cruz all in the next week. If they can go 2 for 3 in this stretch, I think they are in good shape. They start a freshman and 5 sophomores in singles, so this is still a really young team that will mature throughout the season. I like this Williams team a lot, and if they continue with this level in doubles, they will be really tough to beat all season long. PP continues their dream season with another huge win. The Hens enter SCIAC play riding high, but now its time for them to win rivalry matches against Redlands and CLU. PP has done an amazing job so far, similar to CLU last year, but now is the time when CLU started to go downhill. PP needs to keep it up and carry this momentum all the way through the end of the season.

Tuesday Results

2011-03-22T18:16:00.000-07:00

Bowdoin d. Cal Lutheran 6-3
Pomona-Pitzer d. Williams 5-4
Chicago d. DePauw 5-4

NCW Tops Hopkins and Tuesday Preview

2011-03-21T19:16:00.000-07:00

On Monday, Bates took down Kalamazoo in a close 5-4 that came down to the last match at #2 singles. Good win for Bates, but this shows me for sure they are ranked properly around 23. Another solid Bates team who may finish 5th in the NESCAC; a pretty typical year for them. I know Kzoo is a work in progress, but they are really down this year. It was good for them to win 4 matches against a top 25 team, but I just find it disheartening how much this team has dropped off and no one seems to care. They will extend their conference winning streak, but they aren't a serious threat to do anything in NCAAs. Thinking about it, they probably head into the GLCA tournament in a couple weeks as the #6 seed, which is shocking given that they were top 15 just a year ago.

Cruz beat Trinity (CT) 8-1 on a cold day in NorCal with Trinity only winning at 1 singles in 3 sets. Good win for the Slugs as they head to Texas. The biggest match of the day saw NC Wesleyan defeating Hopkins 5-4 in a match that was really never close. Awesome job by NCW, they clearly learned from Indoors and pulled off this win playing without their #1 Rinat Khussainov. The scores from the bottom of the lineup were surprising, as NCW just dominated. They got the point they needed in doubles and I think they are just in the head of Hopkins at this point. We'll see how things play out, but I wouldn't be surprised if these 2 are in the same position as last year, competing for an NCAA Final 8 bid against each other. If you're Hopkins, it's one thing to beat up on teams you are clearly better than, but to go on the road and beat a team who's just as good as you takes a lot of will, and NCW just out-competed the Bluejays today. The mental toughness is still lacking in big matches, and Hopkins has upcoming chances to turn it around. NCW doesn't have a serious test the rest of the season so I think they go into NCAAs as a team that people will overlook, which I'm sure they love. This was a big win for the Bishops and they are in a great spot right now because Hopkins may beat some people later in the season.

Super Tuesday tomorrow with 3 matches that should all be very competitive and 6 Pool C teams competing. The headline match of the day probably has the least on the line. Williams begins their D3 season against one of the hottest teams in the country, Pomona-Pitzer. Williams is looking to start well after last year's disappointing finish. This team is a year older now and I expect big things from them this year. That being said, I think this will be a difficult one for the Ephs. They aren't match tested and are playing on the road against a confident and battle-tested team. If Williams loses tomorrow, even something like 7-2, I don't think they should be alarmed. If they win, it's a great effort by them, but you can only expect so much of yourself this early in your season. I think Williams is talented enough to not have to worry about missing the NCAA tournament, but this match could potentially have big implications towards Williams getting a top seed in their NCAA regional and being able to avoid Middlebury or Amherst in the Sweet 16. Pomona-Pitzer is ranked 9th, but their NCAA fate is somewhat determined, so I think a win helps Williams more than it helps PP. Both teams should want to win, but Williams probably has slightly more to play for. I expect a very good match and I think a lot depends on Williams being able to hang in doubles, because that's typically where you are rusty if you haven't played much. I like PP in a close 5-4, but no one knows what to expect from Williams so the result is hard to gauge.

The other 2 matches both have huge implications for NCAAs. First the rescheduled match between Bowdoin and Cal Lutheran takes place in Thousand Oaks. Another note is that the Trinity CT-Cal Lu match has been rescheduled for Thursday. Cal Lu desperately needs this win if they want to stay in the NCAA hunt. Wins against Tyler and Whitman are nice, but not enough to put a team in the top 15 and have them qualify in the top 6 teams for Pool C. Cal Lu's Mary Wash loss now looks horrible and they somehow need to offset that with a significant win. This match would be that significant win. I think the Kingsmen match up well with Bowdoin and have a good chance in this, but they have to take a lead in doubles. They have to match Bowdoin's intensity, because I don't think they make NCAAs if they lose tomorrow. I know they have several remaining matches on their schedule, but I don't know if matches against Midd and Williams are realistic wins, and they may have to beat out Pomona-Pitzer or Redlands. The Trinity CT match on Thursday is big, but with the Bantams probably not being a serious top 20 team, this is the one Cal Lu needs. Giuffrida and Wilson have been great this season, but either Worley or Sousa needs to step up tomorrow and get a win in singles, because from all indications, Bowdoin is up 2-0 before the match starts with wins at 5 and 6 singles. Cal Lu needs a little magic, but they have been great at home the past few weeks. Cal Lu is 1-3 in 5-4 matches this season and I think they extend that to 1-4 tomorrow. CLU has a couple great players, but I don't know if they've got enough to beat a well-rounded team like Bowdoin. I wouldn't be that surprised if CLU wins, but I can't pick against the Polar Bears in this. I also didn't mention this is not a match Bowdoin wants to lose, because then they have to root for Cal Lu to beat a team like Redlands. Bowdoin wants to control their own destiny when it comes to making NCAAs, and a win tomorrow would really help.

The match I'm most looking forward to is Chicago and DePauw. These 2 have had some heated encounters over the years and I expect another one tomorrow. DePauw is 3-1 against Chicago over the past 5 seasons, but the Maroons won the most recent one last year in an easy 7-2 win on the road. This is a clash of styles, with the wildly talented underachieving Maroons against a very solid and disciplined DePauw. I'm not going to say lose and you don't make NCAAs, but the loser has a serious uphill battle the rest of the season. They both don't have a ton of remaining opportunities on their schedule, but whoever gets this win on their resume gets a huge boost toward making NCAAs. I really don't know who to pick in this because Chicago has been out of D3 competition for a couple weeks and we haven't seen much of DePauw yet. This is just about as close as you get to a must-win, because the loser would probably need a win over a team like Carnegie Mellon to have a shot at Pool C, and I don't know if either team has that in them. Surprisingly, these 2 haven't played very close matches over the past few years, but I expect a close one tomorrow. My gut tells me Chicago gets the win tomorrow, but again I expect it to come down to the wire. It should be a wonderful match, and hopefully the sportsmanship remains as great as the play because I know that's been an issue in the past when these 2 meet.

Weekend Recap, Matches I Missed and Monday Preview

2011-03-20T20:25:00.000-07:00

It was a shame that matches in Santa Cruz were canceled today, but there was still a lot of action over the weekend including a few matches I completely missed that didn't make it on the calendar. I apologize for those omissions and I'll touch on those results in this post. On Friday, Skidmore continued their mediocre play in California in a 6-3 loss to Redlands. I don't think the Thoroughbreds are top 20 material this year, especially given the scores in the bottom of the lineup against Redlands. Skidmore will look to improve when they return home. A much needed win for the Bulldogs and they have some very important matches coming up against Trinity (CT) and Williams before they get into SCIAC play. They know they have to make a splash soon and I expect them to raise their level. The other match on Friday had Mary Washington losing at home against Bates 7-2. The Eagles have 2 different personalities this season and it seems like they don't show up half the time. They beat Cal Lu, got crushed by an unranked Whittier, beat Washington & Lee and now lose badly to Bates. Mary Wash is in what amounts to a 3 year slump because on paper they should be top 20 and they are nowhere close to it. They have very little in the way of quality wins recently and I definitely see another 1st round exit in NCAAs in the near future.

On Saturday, two matches that weren't on the calendar took place with Mary Wash rebounding to beat Swarthmore and Emory taking down DePauw 7-2. A decent result for the Tigers as they hung at a few spots. One thing that concerns me is Emory's #2 doubles team. They beat CMS and have followed it up with losses to Denison and DePauw. I know Emory wants to keep their Pottish/Egan duo at 3, but to do that they need a decent 2 team. Also on Saturday, Pomona-Pitzer defeated Skidmore 7-2 in a routine victory. The Hens continue to roll. One of my matches to watch highlighted the weekend as CMS took on national title favorite Amherst. The Jeffs had been rolling the entire week, but as I said previously, they have struggled in the regular season the past 2 years. CMS stepped up and won this match somewhat comfortably. Alex Lane was the real difference maker as he got 2 huge victories for CMS. If I'm Amherst, there is nothing to be concerned about. I use this as motivation that the team still needs to improve. The Stags rebounded well after the Emory loss as they had to get a lot of their confidence back. I know Midd is 1, but I think even they know they don't belong there. I have no problem with them staying there due to last season, but they will have to beat Amherst eventually to keep that ranking. All of this leaves Emory as the team to beat in D3 right now. I see them going into NCAAs as the top seed. They have tests against Hopkins and Chicago, but the only match I could actually see them losing is a UAA final against Wash U if they get swept in doubles. CMS needs to refocus because they have 3 huge matches coming up in Texas this weekend. If this shows us anything, it's that no team stands out among the top teams and I think it's a 3 horse race for the national title.

Today was fairly uneventful, but I was impressed by Hopkins absolute destruction of Bates. The Bobcats are a solid team and Hopkins lost 10 total games in the bottom 4 singles spots. A remarkable performance heading into a huge Monday clash with NC Wesleyan. I was also disappointed in this effort by Bates because Hopkins is an excellent team, but they aren't Emory or CMS. This team went from beating UMW 7-2 to losing to JHU 8-1 and I think the gap between those 2 teams is large, but not that large. Also today, Swarthmore upset Christopher Newport 5-4 in a drama-filled contest. Not a good loss for the Captains as they need to close the gap with NCW and this doesn't help. An excellent win for Swat, who I still feel should be ranked in the next poll.

We've got a very big week ahead, but let's focus on tomorrow for the moment. 3 matches on the calendar, only 1 of which I consider significant. To begin, Bates continues their road trip and takes on a Kalamazoo team that's an absolute disaster right now. I see a routine win for the Bobcats and it should be a nice confidence boost after a rough day today. Cruz and Trinity (CT) will try to squeeze their match in with bad weather in the area. I could be wrong, but I think Trinity is pretty weak this year, so they may have benefited the most from the match cancellations avoiding matches against both Bowdoin and Cal Lu. The Bantams still sit at 14 in the country from last year's results. Bowdoin and Cal Lu would be 2 matches I'd expect them to lose. We'll see how they do against Cruz, but I project an easy win for the Slugs. The biggest match of the day, and one of my 10 matches to watch is a rematch of last year's epic Sweet 16 match between Johns Hopkins and NC Wesleyan. For those who don't know, Hopkins was at home in NCAAs last year and swept doubles before NCW stormed back and won all 6 first sets in an eventual 5-3 win that came down to the wire. I'm sure that's still fresh on the minds of Hopkins coaches and players, so they should desperately want some revenge, especially playing on the road this time. NCW didn't have the start they wanted at Indoors and this is one of their very few matches against a highly ranked team this season. If they don't win this, I don't see them breaking the top 10 during the regular season. Both teams should be incredibly fired up in what I expect will be an amazing match. I'm going to refrain from making a prediction because I really don't know.

I'll be back Monday night with a recap of the Hopkins-NCW match and a Tuesday preview.

Some Weekend Matches Cancelled

2011-03-18T09:57:00.000-07:00

Matches scheduled to happen this weekend in Santa Cruz have been canceled and this affects several teams. I think Bowdoin and Cal Lu may play in Thousand Oaks on Tuesday. I am trying to piece together all the rescheduling dates. Cal Lu's website reports the CLU-Cruz match will not happen this season. Trinity CT and Cruz are scheduled to play Monday night. I'm assuming Trinity CT and Bowdoin have to reschedule their match due to NESCAC rules.

If anyone has updated news on this, please e-mail me.

Some info on Cruz at slugtennisnation.blogspot.com and also check CLU and Bowdoin's websites.

ITA Rankings - March 17

2011-03-17T21:19:00.000-07:00

The ITA Rankings were released today.

Pretty much 0 complaints from me. It was good to see Gustavus back in the rankings after they crushed Whitewater recently in a result that I missed until yesterday. The box is here for those interested. I was a bit surprised not to see Swarthmore in the rankings after they beat Vassar. It's amusing that there's a big clump of Pool C teams between 14 and 19, and those teams will certainly be put in the proper order during the next few weeks. Although the rankings aren't all that relevant at this point, we do have a significant amount of information now and they are much more accurate than the rankings released 2 weeks ago.

Wed/Thurs Recap, Fri-Sun Preview

2011-03-17T19:23:00.001-07:00

Justin Wilson, Cal Lutheran

I want to go over the results from the past 2 days and preview a very big weekend. The first half of the week was full of big matches and although Wed/Thurs matches didn't have the significance of Monday and Tuesday, they certainly weren't short on drama. Today, there were 2 matches which I didn't expect to be all that competitive. I'll discuss CMS-Skidmore and CLU-Amherst a little later.

First on Wednesday, Redlands lost to Amherst 8-1 as expected. Another dominant performance by Amherst, cruising in doubles and not dropping a set in the 5 singles matches they won. They continue to play Chafetz at 4, which I guess we will see for the remainder of the season. Redlands just isn't competitive with the top teams. ITA Rankings came out today (I'll have a separate post) and Redlands is sitting at 8th in Pool C. That means they have to go out and beat someone, they can't just sit back and go through the motions. Granted, they've lost to Cruz, Amherst and Emory, but I haven't seen anything from them that implies they are better than last year. They've got to make a move sooner or later and it may not be against Pomona-Pitzer the way the Hens are playing. The other 2 matches Wednesday both came down to the wire and were tied 4-4. The early match pitted Bowdoin against a Skidmore team who I expect a lot from this year. One thing for Skidmore is they were missing one of their star freshmen, Jimmy Sherpa, and without him they will struggle against a team as good as Bowdoin. I'm not sure where he is, but Skidmore isn't deep enough to be a top 20 team without him. Hats off to Bowdoin, who proved me wrong about not being able to come from behind after doubles. Skidmore jumped out to an early lead, but Bowdoin really dominated the 4 spots they won in singles. Sullivan has lived up to his preseason All-American status and he has been the rock for Bowdoin this week in singles, starting his spring season 4-0 at the #1 position. Given the new ITA rankings, Bowdoin currently sits at #7 in Pool C, but they have an opportunity to play the #6 team, Trinity (CT), this weekend. Bowdoin has done what they needed to do so far and they are in a good spot.

Unbelievable heart and resiliency by Cal Lutheran. They could have folded after Indoors and an injury to their top player, but they didn't. Since Ballou has had surgery, they've beaten Tyler and Whitman and played 5-4 against Kenyon. Along with Paul Burgin, Justin Wilson is the biggest surprise for me this season for an individual. He's playing at a very high level right now and has been rock solid for this team. This is Cal Lu's 4th match that has been tied at 4-4 this year and it's the first one they won. I am impressed that they are doing what they're doing and I think they are going to keep it up. They have more shots against ranked teams and they can sneak their way back into Pool C. If they pull some upsets and get confident, watch out for them. I have a feeling they are going to make more noise this year. What a roller coaster season for the Kingsmen, but they have to be pleased with themselves. Whitman had a decent trip. They got the big win they needed and Coach Northam praised his team for their fight, but the bottom line is they are still ranked 20th in the country. I know it's bad to get caught up in rankings, but they don't lie. They saw the prize after that Trinity match, but couldn't get the job done against a team who I consider inferior to them, and then followed it up by not showing up at 2 of the doubles spots. I think they were physically beaten up by the end of the trip and there are a lot of positives to take from the past week, but the bottom line is they still have a lot of work to do to be able to compete with the top 15 teams on a consistent basis. I see it as though they are losing matches they shouldn't be losing, but they did get their big win and may go home satisfied.

I don't have much to say about today's matches. CMS put their full lineup out which I found a bit surprising, but after the Emory match and with Amherst coming up, I guess Coach Settles decided that his guys could use the practice. Pretty routine victory for CMS, they've certainly asserted their dominance over the lower ranked teams. Cal Lu put up a good fight but was beaten by a more talented team. A good experience for the Kingsmen, and they did pretty well I thought. Amherst is just rolling and we'll see how they do this weekend.

Friday through Sunday should be nothing short of fantastic. Tomorrow, we've got 2 evenly matched contests. On the East coast, Bates takes another spring trip and they will play Mary Wash tomorrow. Bates was ranked 23rd today and Mary Wash was 25th. The Eagles played a solid match at home against W&L last weekend, so we will see how they do in this. They are probably slightly overmatched at the top of the lineup, but have more depth, so this should be a good contrast of styles. I like Mary Wash in a close one, because I trust them at home, I just don't know if they can get it done on the road. Bates is officially done from Pool C if they lose. The other match tomorrow is an absolute must win for Redlands. The pressure is squarely on them against a lower ranked Skidmore team and throw in the fact that Redlands is playing for their tournament life. With Bowdoin's win over Skidmore, Redlands desperately needs this, and it would help to win in convincing fashion. Skidmore is playing their 3rd ranked team in as many days, so they could be a little tired. This would probably be the biggest win in the history of Skidmore tennis if they could pull it off, but I expect Redlands to be too tough on their home courts. The Bulldogs win and keep their NCAA hopes alive.

Saturday Skidmore plays again at Pomona-Pitzer, and judging by the past weeks results, I don't expect it to be too competitive. PP is at a very high level right now and Skidmore may be a bit down on themselves, especially if they lose to Redlands Friday. Again, it would be a huge win for Skidmore, I just don't know if they can do it. The second match pits Bowdoin against Cal Lutheran in a match that is crucial to both teams Pool C chances. Cal Lu has been so tough at home the past month and Bowdoin will have been in California for a week, so fitness could start to become a factor. This is Cal Lu's chance to get back into the Pool C hunt, and the way they've been playing, I certainly think they can win. The Kingsmen probably need to get ahead in doubles because of their depth issues, but if they do that, it's anyone's match. The main event this weekend is obviously Amherst at CMS. The Stags are looking to rebound from last weekend's poor performance against Emory and Amherst is trying to establish themselves as the dominant team in the nation. Midd still stands at 1, but this match should have implications as to who is #1 in the country late in the season. I believe having the #1 overall seed in NCAAs is huge, because when you take the big 3 this year, whoever isn't #1 will have to win brutally tough matches on back to back days, whereas #1 will have an easier team with whoever ends up being #4. This match is tough to predict. I like CMS to step up after a tough loss to Emory, but the question is if Amherst is just too talented. CMS obviously has to play better doubles than they did, and I still don't have a status report on the whereabouts of Robbie Erani. He could potentially make a big difference and allow CMS to better compete deep in the lineup. Lane or Johnson will need to pull off a huge win, but at the moment I just can't pick against Amherst as I expect the Jeffs to pull out a tough win.

Sunday brings double duty for both Cal Lutheran and Trinity (CT), as the Bantams play both Bowdoin and Cal Lu, and the Kingsmen also play Santa Cruz. The Bowdoin-Trinity match was one of my matches to watch because it is a huge rivalry and huge for Pool C. Again, Cal Lu will have a chance to get another win on their resume and they have to keep their heads held high even if they get crushed by Cruz. The Slugs match up well against the Kingsmen, so I don't foresee too much trouble for Cruz playing at home in that match. So we've got CLU-Cruz, CLU-TrinityCT and Bowdoin-TrinityCT all taking place in Santa Cruz, California on Sunday. In Baltimore, Hopkins takes on Bates in what will be JHU's biggest test of the year to date. Hopkins will have too much depth and too much talent, but their top guys will be tested.

Thursday

2011-03-16T20:40:00.001-07:00

I will post tomorrow night about a recap from today and an extensive weekend preview. The matches tomorrow aren't really worth previewing. CMS hosts Skidmore and Cal Lu hosts Amherst.

Also tomorrow, ITA rankings are out so keep an eye out for those. Box scores from the past 3 days' matches are under latest news to the right.

Scheduling Note

2011-03-15T21:45:00.001-07:00

One of my matches to watch has been moved. Bowdoin-Trinity (CT) was originally scheduled to be played on April 2, and it will now take place in California this Sunday March 20th. I will move it on the calendar.

Tuesday Recap, Brief Wednesday Preview

2011-03-15T21:03:00.000-07:00

Pomona-Pitzer was not playing over their heads at the Stag-Hen and Amherst is just really good. The Jeffs knocked off Trinity (TX) today without both Joey Fritz and Mark Kahan, 2 of their top 4 players. The box score isn't available at the moment but this Trinity release has scores.

Emory is tough and CMS is also very good, but what Amherst did today is just unmatched. Kahan and Fritz played 1 and 3 yesterday and Garner didn't even bother to bring them to play a top 10 quality opponent. They just have unbelievable depth and it's a gutsy move to not bring 2 of your top guys. Either way, they came away with a comfortable 7-2 win in a danger match. I'm really looking forward to their match with CMS this weekend and I assume they would bring a full lineup to play the Stags. After seeing Emory win like they did, I was impressed, but now I remember why I thought Amherst was a level above everyone else. At the same time, Trinity can't go home happy. I ranked them 4th in the country based upon the assumption that they had the best 1 and 2 doubles team in the country. Clearly, that is far from true, particularly at 1. If you look at Trinity's 3 matches at Indoors and their 5 matches in California, their #1 team is 3-5. This team was an NCAA semifinalist in '09, and NCAA finalist last year and an ITA national champion in the fall. Why can't they do the same thing in dual matches? I think this Tigers team is better than the Trinity team that was #1 in the country for a portion of 2008. It would be a shame for them to waste this season. They've got 10 days to regroup and I think they need to get at least 1 win at their quad for confidence purposes. It's not going to be easy with Cruz, CMS and Wash U coming to town, but so far they've shown they are just another team and nowhere near elite. I expect the Tigers to end up somewhere between 12-16 in the next rankings which is just not good for a team of this caliber.

Kenyon is a great story this year, but if you want to talk about surprising, look no further than Pomona-Pitzer. The Hens will most likely come in at #9 in Thursday's rankings, 11 spots higher than I had them projected. Coach Belletto has done a fantastic job and their 2 wins today prove that they are really tough. I think they are just about a lock for Pool C at this point barring some very unforeseen circumstances. Bowdoin was clearly a better team today than they were Monday and the Hens really took it to them in doubles and never let their feet off the gas. I'll say again that I'm impressed, especially with their absolute destruction of Tyler. I know PP always thinks highly of themselves, but this year they are actually walking the walk. They have a tricky match against Skidmore Saturday and Williams in a week, but for now that single digit ranking next to their name should feel great.

Bowdoin and Whitman are interesting stories. The Polar Bears clearly played better today than they did against TU with a solid win over Whitman, but as I mentioned yesterday, Bowdoin can't get in holes in doubles because they don't have enough players to dig their way out against top 15 teams. Pena is not in his freshman year form, as he is losing matches at 3. If he's not a strong 2, this team is nothing special. Sullivan has won all of his matches, but 1 player is only going to take you so far. I like Bowdoin around #15 or 16 right now the way they are playing and that may not be high enough to get them in the tournament. They actually don't play Redlands this year but have some other big matches coming up. This has been a crazy season and Whitman has been in the middle of all of it. After their results the past 2 days, I think they may have just caught an unprepared and downtrodden Trinity team on Saturday, because I'm not too impressed with them. The same Tyler team they lost to also lost to Rhodes and Cal Lu and got destroyed by PP today. Whitman had an opening to get themselves very highly ranked, but after a trip with huge swings, I think they probably go home where they started at about 18th. The glimmer of light was there but they couldn't take advantage of it. I really like this program and that's disappointing to see, but they may very well find themselves in California for regionals again. They finish against Cal Lu tomorrow which is a match I think they can win.

Whitman-Cal Lu occurs tomorrow along with Bowdoin-Skidmore and Amherst-Redlands. I'm really looking forward to seeing Skidmore play a top team because I think they are very tough this year. This will be a good test for both teams, but more pressure is on Bowdoin due to Pool C hanging over them. That match headlines tomorrow for me. Given Redlands performance against Emory and Cruz, I don't think tomorrow's result against Amherst is in doubt. Herst can probably bring half their lineup and win comfortably, but the Verdieck Tennis Center is never an easy place to play. I like Redlands to put up a fight in doubles and possible get a match, but they probably fade after that against a more talented team. Lastly, Whitman-Cal Lu is a match of contrasting styles as we have depth against a top heavy team. Given the results over the past few days, this should be a very even match that can go either way. If Cal Lu wants to keep Pool C hopes alive, they need a win, and at the same time, Whitman wants to go home to Washington with a win as well.

A Wild Monday and Tuesday Thoughts

2011-03-14T19:18:00.000-07:00

I want to attempt to go through a couple strings of matches that involve a lot of the teams that played today. Bear with me here because it may not make a ton of sense. I'm just trying to prove we have a lot of even teams and mayhem. Rhodes beat UT-Tyler who beat Whitman who beat Trinity (TX) who beat Cal Lutheran who beat UT-Tyler. Vassar lost to Swarthmore who lost to Whitman who lost to UT-Tyler who lost to Cal Lutheran who lost to Mary Washington who lost to Whittier who lost to Vassar.

That makes a ton of sense and it's still early in March. After your top 8-10 teams, it seems as though the next 25 or so could all beat each other on any given day. Everything is situational right now and it's hard to make sense of it.

To begin today, I want to talk about Rhodes. This is a team who thought they were good last year, but never got it all together in doubles. They finished 3rd in their conference and gave DePauw a fairly tough time in the conference semis. At the moment, I definitely expect to see them ranked on Thursday and as crazy as this sounds, potentially in the top 20. The glitch with Rhodes is they play an incredibly soft schedule. Denison and Tyler were the only 2 decent teams they play this year, so I don't see how they can possibly be rewarded with a Pool C bid, especially given that Tyler also lost to Cal Lutheran who has had a rough year. That being said, watch out for them in the SCAC tournament. I think it's a great win for Rhodes to beat a Denison team that played down to the wire with Chicago. Again, I expect Rhodes to be ranked and I can honestly see them as high as 16 or 17 because the bottom line is they haven't lost a D3 match yet and they have an indirect win against Whitman who beat Trinity (TX). Realistically, I think they get ranked around 25, but you can make the case for them being higher. At the same time, Tyler's win today was huge for Cal Lu, who now has a glimmer of Pool C hope in my opinion. They did lose to Mary Wash, but after beating Tyler and playing a very tough 5-4 against a top 8 opponent in Kenyon, I like where they're at right now for all the bad things that have happened to them. Typical Kenyon performance just getting the job done and getting a W. That has been their style this year; no flashy victories just solid tennis and it's working for them. They should go home from California thrilled with their trip. The trend I'm seeing this year is teams aren't comfortable away from home. Cal Lutheran and Mary Washington are 2 completely different teams when they are at home. CLU just played 5-4 with Kenyon without their #1, who they had in a loss to Mary Washington. Playing 5-4 with Kenyon is something CMU, Chicago and Whitman all couldn't do.

Coach Northam's account of the Whitman-Tyler match is that his squad just got outplayed by the Patriots. That tells me that Tyler is clearly talented and should be ranked even after a rough start. In their defense, their #1 Josh Chavez didn't play when they lost to conference foe McMurry, who by the way is another team to pay attention to that could be ranked. Whitman plays Bowdoin tomorrow, who got spanked in doubles by Trinity today. Bowdoin is traditionally terrible in their opening match of the spring in doubles, which is understandable. A win tomorrow could really help them bounce back after today, but a loss to Whitman would not be good. I think it's okay that Bowdoin faltered today, just as long as they are able to rebound tomorrow. At the same time, Whitman should be hungry to get a win after they didn't have the Monday they wanted. I worry about Bowdoin's middle of the lineup, because I don't think they have enough firepower to consistently get 4 singles wins against good teams. If the Polar Bears doubles isn't clicking, they are in trouble. A lot depends on how beaten up Whitman is tomorrow because I expect a really close match.

That's only 1 of the 5 matches happening tomorrow and we have 2 teams on double duty. First, Denison continues their spring break and travels to Emory. The Big Red may able to hang in doubles if they play better than they did today but I expect them to win 1 match maximum against the hottest team in the country. I already discussed the Bowdoin-Whitman match briefly, but there are 2 other matches that have huge significance in this grouping of teams. We get to see Pomona-Pitzer after the Stag-Hen for the first time as they have a 2 match day taking on both UT-Tyler and Bowdoin. The Polar Bears will be looking for revenge after today and they get a crack at a Pomona-Pitzer team who is top 10 the the moment. If PP holds serve and wins both tomorrow, I think they enter Thursday's rankings in the single digits, probably a first for this program. That should be huge motivation for the Hens as they saw that Bowdoin is vulnerable and Tyler is dangerous, so they will be sure to be on their heels for that one. If PP comes together for the next 24 hours and comes out of tomorrow with 2 wins, they are top 10 in the country and pretty much home free in Pool C. Bowdoin obviously also has 2 matches. They too are competing for Pool C and it would not be good for them to lose both tomorrow. If they start spring break 0-3 with a loss to a Pool C competitor, they are in a hole because the truth is life just gets harder when they have to go home and play the NESCAC big 3 along with their huge rival Trinity (CT). The Polar Bears desperately need a win tomorrow and hopefully they got the rust off today. So we've got Emory-Denison, PomonaPitzer-Bowdoin, PomonaPitzer-Tyler and Whitman-Bowdoin.

The thing I'm most excited for tomorrow is the start of Amherst's season. They had a few matches today with split squads and a couple things stand out to me. First of all, I expected Andrew Jung to be back and he didn't play today. I think that makes them weaker, but they obviously are still very tough. The second thing is Austin Chafetz at the 4 position. I wonder if that's a move by Chris Garner in an attempt to counter Emory's top 2 players. That would be my first instinct. Either way, we will get a great feel for Herst tomorrow when they take on Trinity (TX). If I was Amherst I would have preferred that Trinity did well over the weekend so they aren't as hungry for a win. Trinity is still dangerous and they had to get some confidence after their win today against a potential top 15 team. Trinity has nothing to lose tomorrow, but I expect Amherst to be tough enough in singles to gut out a close 7-2 or 6-3 win. This would be a win that would completely turn Trinity's season around and I think they've got a shot. Amherst is a great team, but the first few matches transitioning indoors to outdoors are not easy. I'm looking forward to all tomorrow's action and hopefully we can sort all of this out tomorrow night after we have more information.

Thoughts on Other Saturday Results and Monday Preview

2011-03-13T18:48:00.000-07:00

Besides the Stag-Hen, 4 other important matches occurred Saturday. Let me begin in the Northeast, where Bates and MIT faced off in a match of 2 solid teams who are hoping to crack the top 20 this year. I know the Bates squad thinks they've got a good team this year but MIT defended their home court and came away with a 5-4 win. This MIT squad is getting better and we could see them in the top 20 this year after last year's Sweet 16 performance. Bates desperately needed this win if they wanted to have any hope at a Pool C bid and now they will need to do some serious work and pull a few upsets in NESCAC play. Even if Bates wins at the top of the lineup they are in trouble and this showed as MIT took 3, 4 and 6 as well as 2 of the doubles matches. It's a shame to see Bates not able to come through but I just don't think they have enough players to field a team that's competitive with the best in the country. Next, we got our first look at the defending national champs as they had a convincing 8-1 against Brandeis. Brandeis hasn't been doing very well this year, but credit to Midd for beating a solid team convincingly. Midd has designed their schedule so they don't have many tough D3 matches in California and they will get a chance to develop their young team before facing a serious test. A good start for Midd, I don't think they could have asked for much more.

Working our way South we had a clash in Virginia between two programs that have been struggling. Mary Washington defeated Washington & Lee 6-3 in a match that was fairly close. UMW was able to pull out 2 3-setters as well as a 9-7 in doubles to get a desperately needed win. It's clear the Eagles are much more comfortable playing on the East coast. It's a shame to see the fall of W&L as they will most likely be out of the top 30 in the next rankings for the first time since I can remember. This team was top 15 as recently as 2008 and they just aren't doing what they need to be doing. They will probably win their conference but for as good as they used to be, this is terrible from W&L. And lastly, out West, Cruz dominated Redlands 8-1. This result really surprised me because Redlands played Emory tough on Thursday and I thought they would have a good showing here. Cruz is notoriously tough on their home courts and I'm sure they played great doubles to suck the life out of UR. Cruz also has to be pleased seeing CMS fall like they did. Redlands has to be careful with the rise of Pomona-Pitzer because the Bulldogs are far from a lock for the tournament. They are solid on paper, but they've got to string some wins together eventually and an 8-1 loss to Cruz isn't going to get it done. Well done by the Slugs and a good start to a tough next few weeks.

4 matches on the calendar taking place tomorrow, but only 1 of real significance in my opinion. The first match to mention will be Denison and Rhodes battling for what could be a spot in the top 30. Rhodes started the season by upsetting a solid UT-Tyler team and the Lynx have consistently been 3rd in their conference in recent years after Trinity (TX) and DePauw. Dension is coming off a near upset of Chicago in which the deciding match was 7-5 in the 3rd in favor of Chicago. If Denison wants to have any chance at an NCAA bid, they need this win and it will also help them to build confidence for an eventual showdown with Kenyon. Secondly, aforementioned UT-Tyler takes on Whitman in California. WC is fresh off a good SH Invite and UT-Tyler has really been struggling, falling not only to Cal Lu and Rhodes, but also to conference foe McMurry. They're hurting right now and aren't what they used to be, so I'll predict an easy win for Whitman. In the third match, Kenyon continues their spring break when they travel to Thousand Oaks to take on Cal Lutheran. With Cal Lu missing their top player, I like Kenyon to get a pretty easy win. This will be a nice cool down for Kenyon after a stressful weekend as they should win a comfortable 6-3 or 7-2. On the other hand, it will be a good test for Cal Lu to help them realize what they need to do to be competitive going forward.

The main event tomorrow will be a clash between 2 top 15 teams: Bowdoin and Trinity (TX). This will be Bowdoin's first match of the spring, and honestly I'm not too sure what to expect from them. Trinity (TX) is fresh off disappointment and I would assume they are still beaten up from a rough 2 days. 48 hours is not enough turnaround time to get a team completely healthy. This is a tough opener for Bowdoin, but as a Pool C team, they really need to be on their heels, especially after Trinity lost to both Whitman and PP. If Bowdoin loses tomorrow, and then Redlands beats PP, the Polar Bears could be in big trouble when it comes to making the tournament. I know it's tough to look that far ahead, but every match is important. I just don't trust Trinity at all right now, but a win tomorrow would at least show the country something. Likewise, Bowdoin can make a statement that they are a contender with a win tomorrow. I expect a competitive match and it's too hard to predict since I know little about this year's Bowdoin squad.

Two notes: If anyone is at the matches and will email me score updates, I will tweet them. I instantly get emails on my phone so the turnover time will be quick. I'm sure everyone who reads the blog would appreciate it. Secondly, I put the match calendar together a while ago and haven't looked to update it. If I missed any matches or if anyone knows of schedule changes, please email me and let me know. It's too much work to go through every team's schedule again and check everything.

Stag-Hen Analysis

2011-03-12T19:33:00.000-08:00

Colin Egan, Emory

Vassar - A bit disappointed in their performance, but my conclusion is they just aren't that good this year. They are probably slightly weaker than last year's team who finished 28, so I just don't see them as top 30 material. They probably can beat Skidmore on a good day, but it will take a lot of work to get there. I really expect John Cox to instill a winning attitude in this program, but great things don't happen overnight.

Swarthmore - Not too much to say, but I'm happy to see them get a win on a big stage. They're still a decent team and after seeing them give Whitman a hard time and beat Vassar, they may be in the 30-40 range of teams this year. That's probably an improvement over the past 3 years which is a step in the right direction.

Trinity (TX) - I don't really know what to say. Trinity was beaten up with illness this weekend; I get that, but this morning was not good. I can understand a loss to P-P, especially given how the Hens did in their next 2 matches. Trinity is almost on Chicago's level when it comes to underachieving at the moment. In their defense, their California trip last year was a trainwreck and they ended up just fine at the end of the season, but they have to remember that there are only so many chances. They still have Amherst and Bowdoin on this trip and those are far from walks in the park. The point of doing well in the regular season is to give yourself an easy region in NCAAs (unless you're in California), or make NCAAs period. I can see Trinity losing to Bowdoin and Amherst, losing all 3 matches in their quad and then losing the conference final to DePauw on some fluke day. That means they probably miss the tournament. I picked this team 4th in the country pre-season, and the way they played the first month of the season, they're not even top 10. The talent is there, I don't doubt that, but they aren't where they need to be mentally or on the court. I still think they are extremely dangerous, potentially near the level of the top 3, if they put it all together. But me saying that and them actually doing it are 2 very different things.

Whitman - Not a good start for Whitman, but they got their big win against Trinity. To begin, the Kenyon match was closer than its 8-1 score, but Kenyon was better in tight situations, and I attribute that to the first month of the season. The Lords had another gear to go to and Whitman did not because the bottom line is warm up matches against teams in the NWC don't get you used to the level needed to beat a team like Kenyon. Whitman is obviously limited geographically and scheduling wise, but by the time they got into the groove of this tournament, look what they were able to do. This team reminds me a lot of DePauw; very hard working, plays good doubles and doesn't have a lot of flashy stars. Basically, a team like P-P who can be a thorn in Trinity's side because they have the doubles and depth to keep up with the Tigers as well as a great attitude on court. I've been on Whitman about beating a higher ranked team and they did it. They deserve this win and they'll be rewarded for it ranking wise. Depending on how results play out the next few days, Whitman will be top 15 in Thursday's rankings with top 12 also a possibility and #10 not out of the question. Even though they slipped in the match they were preparing for, they showed a ton of resiliency and for that they deserve a lot of respect. They may not be the most talented bunch but their hearts are as big as anyone.

Pomona-Pitzer - Emory won the tournament, but to me, the Hens were the top story this weekend. This is an experienced team that is well coached and I feel like Belletto's first several years as head coach have all lead to this year. He's taken what he has and made the most of it, and for that, this program deserves praise. I was on PP about not being able to get a big win, and they finally showed that they are the real deal. The most impressive thing is that they didn't go away after their Trinity win. They took more points from Emory than CMS did, and even though they lost the Kenyon match, they made a statement that they are a serious Pool C contender and a potential top 10 finisher this year. They are in great position to make the tournament now and will really have to mess up to not get a Pool C bid, especially if Trinity gets some wins later in the season. I was so impressed with this team this weekend and if they continue to get better, there's no reason they can't give CMS and Cruz a hard time. It's unfortunate they may not make it out of the California regional, but given how far this team has come, just making it should be a big accomplishment. I expect to see them top 10 in the next rankings.

Kenyon - The Lords continue to play top notch tennis and showed great mental toughness dominating Whitman in doubles and coming back from a 4-2 deficit against PP. Remember that this team lost 4 starters from a team that finished 12th last year and now they look like a solid top 10 contender. If that's not enough warrant for coaching staff of the year awards, I don't know what is. I am continually impressed by the 2011 Lords. I keep expecting them to slip and it doesn't happen. Interestingly enough, they are through the difficult part of their schedule and that means they have pretty much locked up a top seed in their NCAA regional. Given that they beat Denison, the only tough thing remaining is GLCAs where they see Case or Denison in the semis and then CMU or DePauw likely in the final. They've weathered the storm and done what they needed to do, and I can't say enough about how impressed I am that they successfully patched up the holes left by last year's graduating class. A fantastic tournament for Kenyon and I really am a believer in this team now.

CMS - I blame it on a bit of overconfidence. They absolutely crushed the #7 ranked team in the country and watched Emory struggling against a Pomona-Pitzer team that the Stags crush year after year. The Stag faithful will make the excuse that Robbie Erani didn't play (I'm assuming he's injured), but the bottom line is he wouldn't have won that match for CMS. As tough as CMS is and as much depth as they have, they were significantly weaker than Emory mentally. They didn't get outplayed or outcoached, they just didn't come through in the clutch. The good news is that's a fixable problem and it comes with experience. Playing NAIA teams is not the same as playing D3 matches, so in reality this was a great test for CMS to see where they stand and they will be ready for Amherst next weekend. It may have been good for them to get a wake up call like this, because they had been cruising so far this season. They get into the real heart of their schedule now, but they know they aren't the best team in the country. They train hard, but they need to do some re-evaluation if they want to win a national title. The talent is there and the match was closer than the 7-2 result, but they lost pretty badly in a match I know they expected to win.

Emory - The moment NCAAs ended last year, I was on the Emory bandwagon for the 2011 Eagles because I know the quarterfinals of NCAAs is not an acceptable result for this program. We haven't seen Herst yet, but Emory is the team to beat right now and has cemented themselves as #2 in the country and potentially #1. The Eagles came through where I thought they were vulnerable and I think it's great that they don't just count on their top guys to win matches. It was probably good for them to be pushed in that semi because it showed them that they need to play better doubles, and that's exactly what they did. Emory has designed their doubles lineup so their 3 team is a sort of insurance so that they don't get swept. They got a quick point in the final and took the pressure off the other 2 teams. I have absolutely no criticism of this team right now because I think they are not only talented, they have finally become focused and humble and are no longer the loud-mouth team that everyone used to hate. They will continue to be tested throughout the season and that's good for them, because I know how badly they want the national title back after a 4 year dry spell topped off by a particularly bitter defeat in 2010.

Stag-Hen Updates

2011-03-11T10:37:00.000-08:00

CMS d. Swarthmore 9-0
Kenyon d. Whitman 8-1
Pomona-Pitzer d. Trinity (TX) 5-4
Emory d. Vassar 9-0

CMS d. Kenyon 8-1
Whitman d. Swarthmore 6-3
Trinity (TX) d. Vassar 7-2
Emory d. Pomona-Pitzer 6-3

7th
Swarthmore d. Vassar 5-4

5th
Whitman d. Trinity (TX) 5-4

3rd
Kenyon d. Pomona-Pitzer 5-4

Final
Emory d. CMS 7-2

Will try to fill in missing box scores and post analysis Saturday night or Sunday morning. Congrats to Emory.

Stag-Hen Invitational Discussion

2011-03-09T10:02:00.001-08:00

Alex Lane, CMS

After a year hiatus, the Stag-Hen Invitational is back for a 4th year. The field is always strong for this tournament and this year is no exception. 4 of the current Top 10 teams in the country will be competing along with 2 others also in the top 20. For those of you unfamiliar, CMS and Pomona-Pitzer co-host this event, as their courts are within walking distance of each other. They do a wonderful job with the event and it's a great opportunity for all participants to play in a beautiful location and play teams they normally wouldn't see. Let's take a look at this year's field.

CMS vs. Swarthmore
Kenyon vs. Whitman
Trinity (TX) vs. Pomona-Pitzer
Emory vs. Vassar

There are storylines involving every team competing and it's a lot of potential information to digest. Everyone has their eyes on a potential CMS-Emory final, but they both have a lot of work to do to get there. First, I'll discuss the bottom 2 seeds. Swarthmore is a program that is lost right now. It seems like a long time ago, but they qualified for Indoors as recently as 2007. After that, we haven't heard from them. The Garnet are in danger of dropping down to 4th in their conference this year with F&M and Haverford being solid programs. It's unfortunate to see the sudden downfall of a team that was once top notch, but they just aren't recruiting at a high enough level to keep up. With the academic draw of the school, one would think they should be a contender for the top 20 in the country. This isn't the case though and they are a heavy favorite to finish 8th in the tournament. With a little bit of restructuring and some good recruiting, Swarthmore could be back on the map as a national power, just like Amherst did a few years ago. For now, I see them getting crushed 3 times this weekend. Vassar may have a shot at winning 2 matches, but it's unlikely with the strength of the other 3 teams in the bottom half. I've talked about the Brewers a fair amount, and they are trying to establish themselves as a team that is ranked consistently. This is a good opportunity for them to get exposure against some teams outside of New England, but I think it's pretty clear they are 7th best team in this tournament.

The 3 through 6 teams may be a lot closer in ability than meets the eye. The other 2 matches highlight the first round and I would not be at all surprised if 1 of them ended in an upset. First, the co-host Pomona-Pitzer takes on Trinity (TX) in a match where both teams have something to prove. Trinity did not have a very good California swing last year so they are looking for some redemption and trying to prove that they are a top 5 team. Losing this match would not help that cause. As I've said, Trinity peaks late in the season, but I'm sure the Tigers feel they should finish at least 3rd in this tournament. PP is trying to finally break through and become a top 15 team so they can qualify for NCAAs. I don't think 2 SCIAC teams get Pool C bids this year, so therefore it's either the Hens or Redlands. PP is playing at home and with a lot of confidence right now, and if you look at the rest of their schedule, this is one of their best chances for an upset. PP can't come out nervous because I believe doubles is the strength of both teams. If the Tigers come out firing, they have the potential to break PP's spirit and walk away with an easy win. I expect an emotional, grinding match that results in a Trinity win. Pomona-Pitzer still doesn't have that signature win over the past couple years and because of that, I can't pick them against a team of this caliber. I think this will be the best quarterfinal.

In the 4-5 match, we have surprising Kenyon against Whitman. As far as what each team is trying to prove, see the previous paragraph. So far, I don't know if anyone not from Kenyon would have expected the Lords to be sitting at #7 in the country. They have played great tennis, and have certainly proved me wrong about their preseason ranking of 15. They are the favorite in this match and have been rock solid so far this season, but anything can happen. Similar to PP, Whitman is a team looking for a breakthrough. I often get on WC about how they falter against higher ranked teams. Although these 2 have several ranking spots between them, I think they have similar strengths and I expect a good match. A Whitman win could really throw the rankings into a tailspin since Kenyon stands at #7. Whitman has been looking for their ticket out of the California regional, and this may very well be their only opportunity to do that this season. If they win this match, they probably find themselves in the top 10 in the country and may head home with only their conference matches left to play. It's a big opportunity, but they have to really want it and rise to the occasion. These 2 played in the SH first round several years ago with Kenyon winning and beating CMS in the next round. I don't expect a repeat of that, but I do expect Kenyon to win a fairly comfortable 6-3. If they play the way they played against CMU and Chicago, winning will take care of itself.

The structure of this tournament has the semifinals on Friday afternoon directly after the quarters. As if CMS and Emory needed an advantage. Not only are they the better teams, but they will have much easier quarterfinals than their opponents. I don't foresee CMS having any problem with either Kenyon or Whitman, and I think at worst they come away with a 6-3 win. They may use their depth and rest some of their starters in the morning match. The bottom half semifinal could be a little trickier for Emory. When I say I thought Trinity had the best doubles lineup in the country, I didn't just make it up. They didn't play well at Indoors, but everyone, including Browning and his team, know that the Tigers are dangerous. The Trinity team crushed the Emory team in the fall and Trinity also has the best 2 team in the country. Emory is vulnerable in doubles as Wash U showed in Indoors and even though a Pottish/Egan combo looks great on paper, Trinity may be just as good at 3. The bottom line is the Tigers need a doubles sweep to win. Fitness will be an issue and because of that, I like Emory to win 6-3. Trinity matches up well with the Eagles and can win, but they'd need a massive effort from the bottom of their singles lineup and in doubles.

In the final round, I expect Whitman and Pomona-Pitzer for 5th, Trinity and Kenyon for 3rd and Emory and CMS for the title. In the 5th place match, this is more important for PP than it is for Whitman. PP is competing for a Pool C bid and this is not a match they can afford to lose because it would be a dagger in the heart to their tournament chances. Whitman won a hard fought match last year so PP is looking for some revenge, but it may come down to who is less deflated after losing a winnable 1st round match. I like Pomona on their home courts, but I expect a very close result. The Hens will realize that they need it more and by the 3rd match of the tournament I don't think either team will be nervous or anxious. Again, this would be a nice win for Whitman, but it is absolutely crucial for PP. The 3rd place match is a no brainer on paper. These 2 met in last year's Sweet 16 with Trinity winning 5-2. Trinity has their whole team back and Kenyon lost 4 starters. However, as I've said, Kenyon is playing at a much higher level than anyone expected so I expect them to give the Tigers a very hard time. I think Trinity will have a bit too much, but conditioning could play a role. Kenyon may not spend a ton of energy in a loss to CMS, but Trinity could have a long one with Emory. I like the Tigers to win 5-4 or 6-3, but I've underestimated Kenyon this whole season and I'm aware I may be doing it again.

The probable final and biggest match of the season to this point should be Emory and CMS. It's interesting that all 3 of the top teams in the country come into this year with a chip on their shoulder. Amherst got crushed in 2 consecutive national finals, Emory blew a 3-0 lead in last year's NCAA quarters and CMS blew 7 match points to send them to the national final. All of these teams are hungry to prove something and I think they are all very focused. These 2 have contrasting styles as Emory possesses an amazing top of the lineup and CMS has unmatched depth. I am sure that Alex Lane is a great player, but I can't pick against Pottish at the moment. I don't think CMS has anyone who can compete with Chris Goodwin at #2 and that forces CMS to win 5 of the 7 remaining matches. For the Stags to win, I think they may need a doubles sweep. Colin Egan is a clutch #3 and the Eagles have a hidden gem in Nick Szczurek who may be one of the best 4s in the country. I see Emory potentially taking the top 4 spots. If they can put a point on the board in doubles, I really like Emory's chances in this. That being said, Wash U showed that Emory is quite vulnerable in doubles, and with CMS playing on their home courts, a doubles sweep is very possible. The Stags should have the edge at the bottom of the lineup, but I'm picking Emory 5-4 in this match. I believe Browning has his guys very focused and fit after last year's disappointment, and it's just too tough to deal with the top 2 players in the country. CMS can win this match, but I'm impressed with the top two thirds of Emory's lineup and I think it's enough to get them a win on the road.

Thoughts on the Next Few Days

2011-03-08T18:15:00.000-08:00

Cameron Spearman, Redlands

I will have a separate post Wednesday evening discussing the Stag-Hen Invitational.

First, I want to go over today's result that had Vassar defeating Whittier 6-3. The Brewers are now 3-0 in California with routine wins against Salisbury, Occidental and Whittier. Tomorrow they take on #7 Kenyon. If anyone knows the Lords well, it is Vassar's head coach John Cox. The question is if his team is skilled enough to pull out a few matches against Kenyon, who is arguably the hottest team in the country at the moment. However, Kenyon's 2 signature wins both came at home. I like Kenyon to win this match 7-2 or 8-1, but I also expect some tight matches. This is a perfect tuneup for the Lords heading into a huge Friday clash with Whitman. Another interesting thing to note is with this result, it is very possible that Mary Wash will be out of the rankings when they are released next week, especially if they lose to W&L this weekend. Who would have thought Mary Wash would be out of the top 30 2 weeks ago? I think it's quite clear that Whittier benefited from an exhausted UMW team and they aren't exactly top 30 material this year. They should enjoy their national ranking while it lasts though.

Apart from the Stag-Hen (SH), there is other tennis in California this week and weekend. Emory warms up for their SH by facing Redlands on Thursday. In Emory's past California trips, they haven't stopped by Redlands to play, so these 2 aren't too familiar with each other. I think this will be a great test for the doubles of both squads, and it will also give Redlands a chance to gauge the strength of the bottom of their lineup. I do expect the Bulldogs to come out with a couple wins in this, but they have to not be intimidated, especially in doubles. I'll talk about Emory later in the week when I discuss the SH, but I think this will be a perfect warm-up for them against a team that will challenge them, but not beat them. The more important match for Redlands is on the road against Santa Cruz on Saturday. I don't consider the Emory match winnable for the Bulldogs, but the Cruz match certainly is if Redlands is playing well. This would be a fantastic win for their program, but my heart tells me Cruz will be a little too much. After Saturday, the country will have a much better indication as to the strength of this year's Redlands team. A win against Cruz would put them in fantastic position for a Pool C bid, but I expect the Slugs to pull out a close one. Cruz is too disciplined to lose a match like this and if they play great doubles, this could turn into a blowout.

A team I haven't talked about much is UT-Tyler. The Pats started very slow this year with their first conference loss since 2007 and then a 5-4 loss against Rhodes. They take on Cal Lu in their first match without Ballou, and both of these teams desperately need a win. If you remember last year, UT-Tyler didn't have the greatest regular season, but came on very strong in NCAAs. They have to regroup and focus their efforts on winning the ASC. A win over CLU would certainly help to build their confidence. Remember 2 years ago at this time, this Tyler team was ranked 13 in the country.

There are 3 other Saturday matches and the most notable thing happening is Middlebury's first D3 test when they take on Brandeis. The Judges are coming off a decent California trip and I don't think they have much of a chance in this, but as long as they keep improving and peak at UAAs, they should be happy. As I've said, so many question marks surround Midd this year, so I'll be interested to see how they start against a solid opponent. They are still 1 in the country dating back to last year and I know they are talented, but getting off to a good start and getting their young guys confidence are 2 important aspects of their season. The other 2 matches should be very close. First we have Bates taking on MIT in a match of 2 New England teams trying to prove their worth. Both programs have top 20 aspirations this year, and if Bates wants to get a whiff of a Pool C bid in 2011, this is a must-win for them. MIT played a decent fall match against Williams, so they look to start strong in D3 play this spring and follow up their Sweet 16 performance in 2010. I expect this to be a battle as MIT won a close one in 2010. Lastly, the rivalry continues between Mary Washington and Washington & Lee. Despite being in separate conferences, geography makes these 2 hated rivals. Both teams are in desperate need of a win, particularly the Eagles, who have to feel great being back in Virginia after their California catastrophe. The loser of this probably won't be ranked in the next ITA poll. In 2008, both of these teams were top 18 in the nation when they met in the NCAA round of 32. Mary Wash won 5-4 and went on to beat Trinity (TX) the next day for a spot in the Final 8. How things have changed. Both teams are barely hanging on to their rankings and the glory they once had. It will be a huge win for the winner and a huge loss for the loser, as both of these teams have little to no confidence at the moment.

Saturday Results

2011-03-05T15:14:00.000-08:00

Hopkins d. Vassar 9-0
Emory d. Newport 9-0
Redlands d. Mary Washington 7-2

I apologize for not being very active lately, but there hasn't been much going on. The season really kicks off this Wednesday, and there is a match almost every day until early May. The Stag-Hen this weekend is really the kickoff to the spring season after Indoors and I'll be previewing that later this week.

This weekend we had 3 noncompetitive matches. To begin, Hopkins dominated as expected, although they were tested at the top 2 doubles spots. This was a good warm-up match for the Bluejays and they won't be tested again for 2 weeks when they have a brutal 6 day stretch that includes matches against CNU, Bates, Emory, NCW and Kalamazoo. If I were Hopkins, I'd be working on my fitness a lot to make sure I don't wilt by the end of that string of matches. JHU did what they needed to do this weekend, but they need to be ready for some tougher competition. Vassar travels to California this week and they have a shot at newly ranked Whittier on Tuesday before Coach Cox takes on his former team Kenyon on Wednesday. They then participate in the Stag-Hen where they get to play Enory first round which I'm sure will be a great experience for them. They have to put their focus on improving to beat Skidmore, and they now know what they need to do since they've seen the Thoroughbreds before.

In the other 9-0, Emory topped Christopher Newport as expected, but with much more ease in singles than I was expecting. The Eagles dropped 4 games in the top 3 singles spots, which is just flat out impressive given that CNU's top 3 aren't too shabby. Emory played good enough doubles and they will need to play great doubles if they want to return to Atlanta with a Stag-Hen title next weekend. The Eagles have a tricky match against Redlands on Thursday before the Stag-Hen Invite where likely matches with Trinity (TX) and CMS await. Those 2 will really test the Eagles, and a CMS-Emory final could be a national title match preview. Newport is an interesting story. I don't like to be harsh on teams, but I have a feeling they think they are a lot better than they actually are. The Captains need to win their conference this year and it will be tough to do. They don't play the schedule to get a Pool C bid, so their only road to the tournament is through NCW. The fact is they should be a good team with a top 2 like they have, but I haven't decided whether or not they are a top 25 caliber team. They don't have much until they play W&L in 3 weeks, and I'm expecting that match to tell me a lot about them.

The past several years, the Redlands-Mary Wash match has always been a war, with the 2009 match being tied at 4-4 before Spearman won it for Redlands. This year it was quite a different story. This was exactly the start that Redlands needed to their D3 season and I'm glad to see it. They got a little confidence under their belt heading into matches with Emory and Cruz during the next 6 days. I think Cruz is a winnable match and it will show us what Redlands is really made of this year. I will also be looking at this match later in the week. A wonderful result for Redlands, but the question is how much of it was them playing well and how much of it was Mary Wash continuing to be terrible? The Eagles were an absolute joke this week, and for the players they have on their team, I don't know how they lose like they do. Something happened to this team between '08 and '09, because they haven't been the same program since that NCAA quarterfinal against Middlebury in 2008. I can't put my finger on what's wrong either, but they are horrendous. As I said, I thought this year's team got on the right track after that Cal Lu win, but I was very wrong. They sit at #27 in the nation, and a loss to W&L next Saturday may very well drop them out of the rankings, which is just inexcusable for a program like this. They are lucky to be in a weak conference, but that doesn't mean they should cruise through the season. On paper, I think this team should be in the low 20s and possibly the top 20, but they aren't playing like it. I wondered if the weather adjustment was a factor, but they still got crushed a week after they got there, so that doesn't seem to be the case. Right now I think they just played over their heads at Indoors, riding their home court advantage. The good news is they still have 2 months to turn it around, but things are looking grim for the Eagles.

Weekend Ahead

2011-03-03T21:36:00.000-08:00

Only 3 matches of note until next Wednesday and they all take place on Saturday. First, we get a look at Christopher Newport in D3 action when they take on one of the top teams in the country in Emory. This won't be much of a match and I expect Emory to come away with a 9-0 or 8-1 win, but there will some good matches at the top of the lineup with Emory's 1-2 punch of Pottish and Goodwin versus Shulman and Heyer for CNU. 4 of the probable top 25 singles players in the country will be competing. Second, we get our first look at Johns Hopkins this spring as they take on a Vassar team that is coming off a 7-2 defeat against Skidmore. A lot of people are on the look out for Skidmore as a big-time sleeper this year, so how Vassar does against Hopkins may tell us something about Skidmore. I know it's a mistake to expect big things from JHU, but I do once again, so it would be great to see them get off to a strong start.

The main event this weekend is Mary Washington and Redlands in the Bulldogs' D3 kickoff this year. This is a huge match for Redlands because not only do they need the win, but more importantly they need confidence to start the year. UMW and Redlands have had very close matches the past couple years, and I expect more of the same this year. This is key for both teams. Mary Wash is 0-3 so far in California and Redlands needs all the wins they can get to qualify for Pool C, and they can't afford a loss to the #27 team in the country. I'm looking forward to this one.

CMS defeats Mary Wash 8-1 and ITA Rankings

2011-03-03T16:44:00.000-08:00

CMS beat Mary Washington 8-1 with about 1/2 of their normal lineup. The Eagles will finish in California taking on Redlands Saturday in what's pretty much a must win for the Bulldogs after Mary Wash left the top 25.

New ITA rankings out today and obviously I think one thing stands out. Rankings are just about perfect in my opinion, however I don't know how Cal Lutheran managed to stay at #12 after a loss to Mary Washington, who currently stands at #27. I'd be very interested to hear the logic behind this. Also, W&L took out Salisbury 8-1 but the Gulls are still 23rd and W&L is 29. Not too much else to discuss as a few teams swapped spots, but nothing too much happened since the fall. I think a lot more will be reflected in the next rankings.

Mary Wash's Rough Start and The Big Picture

2011-03-01T15:28:00.000-08:00

For those of you who haven't heard, Mary Washington began their California swing with an 8-1 loss to Pomona-Pitzer and a 7-2 loss to Whittier.

The Eagles scheduled 2 back-to-back matches and they clearly underestimated the Whittier Poets, projected to finish #5 in the SCIAC. I really thought Mary Washington had turned the corner when they got that win over Cal Lutheran. I think we now know that the Cal Lutheran team that showed up on Saturday at Indoors was not the same team that showed up on Friday at Indoors. The Eagles see CMS on Thursday and Redlands on Saturday to finish their trip. I'm interested to see how they fair on Saturday against the Bulldogs in a match that has traditionally been very close. Whittier doesn't play a stacked schedule, but they do have Vassar in a week and then the top SCIACs as well. They already lost to Pomona-Pitzer in an 8-1 rout and my guess is they caught a beaten down and demoralized Mary Wash team, similar to the Cal Lu team that Mary Wash played. With this win, it would be tough to keep them out of the top 25 though. The ranking committee has quite a task in front of them and I'll be interested to see what they come up with for Thursday. I thought the Eagles would come out prepared against PP after losing last year's match, but the Hens always give their best and are well coached. PP, unlike Whittier, plays a stacked schedule, and we will find out how good they really are as soon as next weekend. They open their own Stag-Hen invitational against Trinity (TX) and could have potential opponents such as Vassar, Whitman, Kenyon and Emory in the tournament. After last night, I think they are a legitimate Pool C contender. They have a veteran team who is hungry to get back in the tournament and this could be their year. I want to pose a question and look at a string of match results to lead me into my next point. If Pomona-Pitzer played Mary Washington tomorrow in Fredericksburg indoors, who would win? Even after having last night's information, I'd still be tempted to pick Mary Wash in that match. This Mary Wash team is no pushover. Even after their first 2 matches, they give a very good Trinity (TX) team all they could handle in a pretty tight 6-3.

Pomona-Pitzer beat Mary Washington 8-1. Mary Washington beat Cal Lutheran 5-4. Carnegie Mellon beat Cal Lutheran 5-4. Cruz beat Carnegie Mellon 5-4. Wash U beat Cruz 5-4. In a way this reminds me of 2008, when the top 16-18 teams in the country could all beat each other on any given day. This year with the information we have so far, I think there are two groups of teams: the top 3 and everyone else. I don't see anyone beating Herst, CMS and Emory besides each other. After that, it's possible that there is not a large gap between #4 and #20. No one has stepped up to the plate as a #4 that can challenge the top 3, but we haven't seen Midd, Williams or Hopkins yet. Wash U gave Emory a tough time but I don't see them truly challenging the top 3. Things could really get thrown into disarray if Mary Wash takes out Redlands Saturday and then the Bulldogs start beating people. Everything is just such a mess right now, when I first heard these results, I started asking a bunch of questions. In 3 weeks, we will have a lot more information and should be able to sort out the pretenders from the contenders. Every match is vitally important for the Pool C teams and you then have to root for the teams that you beat. There aren't a lot of results in yet, but we could technically see Pomona-Pitzer at #11 or #12 in the rankings on Thursday. I think they should be more like 14 or 15. I don't even want to try to take a crack at rankings right now because there aren't enough results. I think the thing to take from all of these early season matches is that we may be in for a great season where anyone can beat anyone else and every team always has to be looking over their shoulder because they have a target on their back. The Eagles have a chance for redemption Saturday. It's just strange to see them lose like they did, but maybe Pomona-Pitzer has really developed and is ready to contend for the top 10 in the country. Things are so wide open at the moment, there's no reason they can't do it. We will see what happens over the next few weeks and I'll take another look at "the big picture" then.

Weekend Recap

2011-02-27T20:13:00.000-08:00

3 matches that I'm going to discuss plus a few other results of note. Cal Lutheran vs. Pomona-Pitzer was cancelled due to weather and a new date has not been picked for the match. Not a ton of key matches this weekend, but a few results worth mentioning. Chicago beat Gustavus 6-3 after falling behind 2-1 in doubles. The Maroons were able to pull out 2 come from behind 3-set singles wins to avoid the upset. Chicago still does have a fighting spirit and life when it comes to qualifying for the NCAA tournament. This morning, the same Gustavus team lost 6-3 to DePauw, winning 2 singles matches at the bottom of the lineup as well as 1st doubles. If I'm Gustavus, I have to be fairly happy with the fact that I played 2 top 20 teams pretty tough given how far the Gusties fell last year. With Carleton get smoked by Whitewater, I have to call GAC the favorite in the MIAC right now. The Gusties actually play Whitewater in 2 weeks and this will be a big match for them. As I expected, Chicago and DePauw had nearly identical results this weekend. The Tigers meet the Maroons on March 22 in an absolutely massive match with the loser being at a big disadvantage when it comes to qualifying for NCAAs.

Skidmore found their 2009 form and beat Vassar 7-2 in a fairly routine victory. If Skidmore keeps up the good work, they could be quite dangerous in May. However, Vassar will now want revenge in the conference tournament so this just adds more fuel to the fire in what should be a great conference final. The biggest match of the weekend had Kenyon defeating Carnegie Mellon 6-3 in a tight match. It's time to give credit where credit is due and say that Kenyon is playing great tennis so far and is definitely the most pleasant surprise for the month of February. The Lords have beaten 2 top 20 teams and there's no reason they will stop here. With the team they have, they are really playing well and this win should put them at 7 or 8 in the next ITA rankings. They are getting contributions from everywhere as Burgin looks to be one of the best #2's in the country and the Polster/Williams team is playing like they are top 10 in the nation in doubles. The Lords next tests will be in California where they will have a match against Whitman and potential matches with CMS and Trinity (TX). I said this before the year started, if Thielke can put this team in the Final 8, he deserves Coach of the Year. The way they are playing right now, this is a definite possibility. Looking at the other side of the match, this is far from a bad loss from CMU because they are still in great position and should be single digits in the rankings, but I'm now questioning my statement about them being as good as last year which I made last weekend. They first need to concern themselves with making the tournament, but they should be more concerned about getting a top seed in the regional. The good news is they may get to see Kenyon again in the GLCA final if they both make it. One thing that disappoints me is that I dubbed Bobby Mactaggart one of my Players to Watch, and he is almost single-handedly doing in his team right now. He's won 10 games in 4 singles matches and is 0-4 in doubles in D3 competition. I said that CMU won't get anywhere without him and I stick to that. Along with Ray Worley, he's not doing what he needs to be doing. Seems like Wichlin, Polster, Frey and Egan all got my message though, because they've had good starts to the spring.

Two other results of note from Case Western. They knocked off both Whitewater and Kalamazoo and should find themselves in the top 30 if not the top 25 in the next ITA rankings. Coach Wojtkowski is running a fantastic program in Cleveland and the Spartans are on the rise. This makes things very interesting in the UAA as there are now 6 probable ranked teams. Life is hard for CMU and Chicago as one of them will have to take on a fiery Case team and the other will have to take on the host Brandeis in the conference tournament 1st round. I could easily see an upset in 1 of those 2 matches and an NCAA berth could be on the line as well. Case isn't in action again until GLCAs, which I don't believe they've played before. They could enter as the 4th or 5th seed and see Denison in the quarters which would be interesting.

Brief Weekend Preview Feb 25-27

2011-02-24T20:45:00.000-08:00

Several matches are happening this weekend, but there are 4 which I'd like to mention because I think they are fairly significant. A team I haven't talked much about is Gustavus, and they will be in competitive D3 action for the first time this season when they take on Chicago. The Maroons are much more talented and should be able to win handily, but the Gusties have an opportunity to make a statement that they are back with a good showing. Chicago took care of a weak Kzoo team last weekend and now they face a similar foe in Gustavus. I expect the Gusties to be slightly stronger than they were last year now that Coach Valenti has a year under his belt, but I don't expect them to be any match for Chicago this weekend. Also note that Gustavus takes on DePauw Sunday, so looking at the results of those matches may allow us to compare the strength of Chicago and DePauw. Next we have a conference rivalry between Vassar and Skidmore. Although this match isn't all that important on the national scene, it's hugely important for these 2 teams as this rivalry runs very deep. The winner of this will get a leg up in the Liberty League and will most likely find themselves ranked in the next ITA poll. It's important for Skidmore to bounce back after a rough season last year, but equally as important for new Vassar coach John Cox to begin to establish a dynasty in the conference so he can build his program into a national power.

Third we have Cal Lutheran versus Pomona-Pitzer in the Kingsmen's first match without Nick Ballou. I'm interested to see how the Kingsmen respond in this. This is a huge match for PP to get a win on their Pool C resume and one they desperately need so they can potentially avoid the #4 seed in the conference tournament. They could use the confidence and this match would take them into the top 20 in the country. I'm not completely sure what to expect of Cal Lu from an effort standpoint, so we'll see how they fair. These 2 both played Brandeis in the past few days with Cal Lu w/Ballou winning 6-3 and PP winning 8-1 after a doubles sweep. I think this could be a big opportunity for the Hens and I expect them to come out with a win against a depleted and reeling CLU squad. The loser of this is in huge trouble when it comes to making NCAAs.

The main event this weekend is the next chapter in the rivalry between Carnegie Mellon and Kenyon. These 2 have played some great matches over the past 3 years and despite not being in the same conference or region, they have become great rivals with a mutual respect for each other. Kenyon defended their home court early in the season against Chicago, but this CMU team is much more focused and disciplined, meaning the Lords will need to raise their game to win. CMU certainly has the talent edge and they have the opportunity to really make a statement that they are a top 10 team who should be taken seriously this year. If they can be mentally tough and win in a hostile environment, they will have just about clinched an NCAA berth. This could potentially be a huge match for NCAA seeding and hosting, so even though its not a must win for either team, it's a result that we will come back to later in the season for sure. Kenyon seems to be very confident so far this season and they've had some quality wins, but this is by far their toughest D3 test of the spring. I think they need to play excellent doubles to win this match, but I like a more experienced CMU team to win a close one. If the Lords can weather the storm early and remain even deep into the match, they can win. This match is CMU's for the taking if they are focused and want it, and I think they leave Ohio with a huge win on Saturday.

2011 Team Preview #32: Amherst

2011-02-23T16:16:00.000-08:00

Moritz Koenig

Coach: Chris Garner, 4th Season
Location: Amherst, Massachusetts
Conference: NESCAC
2008 Ranking: 15
2009 Ranking: 2
2010 Ranking: 2
2011 Projected: 1

I've saved the best for last. Depending on how their doubles and top guys do, this could be the best D3 team we've seen in a very long time. The 2007 Slugs were fantastic, but they weren't facing the competition that this year's Amherst team is. If the Jeffs are dominant in their run to a national title, this could go down as one of the best D3 teams ever. Before I get into the nuances of their team, I just want to present the talent on this team. You have Austin Chafetz, the #1 from Amherst's national runner-up team in 2010, NCAA Singles semifinalist and the only play to ever beat Dillon Pottish in a D3 dual match. You have transfer Luis Rattenhuber, who played #4 for San Diego St. last year, a team that was ranked as high as #44 in D1. Next is Mark Kahan, defending National ROTY, NCAA Singles quarterfinalist and the only person ever to beat Chris Goodwin in a D3 dual match. After that is Joey Fritz, a freshman ranked as high as #18 in his graduating class, by far the highest we've ever seen for an incoming D3 player. Coming back is Andrew Jung, who was the #3 player on Amherst's 2009 National Runner-Up team before taking a year off school. I should also mention Mr. Clutch Moritz Koenig, Amherst's NCAA MVP and #5 player last year, as well as Wesley Waterman, Amherst's #4 player and the person who clinched the NCAA semifinal against CMS. I could also go on about their bench players' accolades. As good as other teams are this year, how in the world can Amherst lose? When you take into account the fact that these guys raise their game better than anyone during May, it's hard to conceive of them being beaten this year, and the scary thing is Koenig is their only senior. Chris Garner has built an incredible team, and the fact that he took them from missing the NCAA tournament to the NCAA final in only a year shows his coaching prowess. He is successfully drawing the recruits and has Amherst in line as the heavy favorite to win the national title this year. As I said previously, anything but a national title would be a huge disappointment for a team that has come so close over the past 2 seasons. If this team is going to lose, you've got to get them in doubles and at the top of their lineup where teams like Emory and CMS could potentially be stronger. I wouldn't be surprised if they lose a regular season match or two, especially given the fact they haven't had the greatest regular seasons during their past runs to the final. In fact, last season they were the #7 overall seed heading into NCAAs and barely escaped their regional. Looking at their schedule this year, they will be tested start to finish. Big matches during spring break are against Trinity (TX) and CMS, and then they return home for NESCAC play where they will take on Williams and Middlebury prior to the NESCAC tournament being held at Middlebury. If they can get through the regular season unscathed, this is an awesome team and I think everyone will realize what's going to happen in May.

Cal Lutheran's Nick Ballou Done for the Season

2011-02-23T15:20:00.000-08:00

I was told this morning that Ballou will have surgery to repair a herniated disc in his back and will no longer be playing this season. It's unfortunate for the Kingsmen, but his health is the most important thing given that he's only a sophomore. This is an injury dating back to last spring that never healed. I have no doubt in my mind that he's seriously injured, but I just can't help to wonder if the same decision would have been made had the Kingsmen finished in the top 4 this past weekend and maintained their top 10 ranking. Either way what's done is done, so I guess we'll never know.

The significance of this runs throughout D3. Cal Lu still has 12 ranked teams on their schedule this spring, but the teams that are impacted the most are fellow Pool C competitors. Despite CLU's bad weekend, given their schedule and the quality of their team, you had to think they would pull out enough wins to qualify for the NCAAs through Pool C. Given the injury to their top player, I don't think they have much of a chance anymore, especially since their lack of depth was on display in Virginia. It's almost like an extra spot has opened. CMU and Williams have to be breathing a huge sigh of relief given that they are near locks for the tournament now if they do what they are supposed to. The biggest winner in all of this is Redlands who now went from a probable 3rd in the conference to an almost definite 2nd. I think the Bulldogs will be competing with Bowdoin, DePauw and Chicago for the 5th and 6th Pool C spots. Teams like Trinity (CT), Newport and Pomona-Pitzer even have Pool C life. This unfortunate event has really opened things up and if the Kingsmen somehow manage to come together as a team and make the tournament minus Ballou, they should be incredibly proud of their efforts. We will see how they fair this weekend against Pomona-Pitzer.

Indoors Is Over, Now What?

2011-02-22T16:56:00.000-08:00

The much anticipated National Indoors has ended and we begin to get into the heart of the dual match season. Things won't be all that active for the next few weeks, but we do have Brandeis in California this week and Mary Wash in Cali next week. Also in the middle is a big Saturday with a couple of big matches including Vassar-Skidmore, PomonaPitzer-Cal Lu and Carnegie-Kenyon. I will be discussing all those matches later this week and will be covering all the action until things really get started in the second week of March.

Indoors Review By Team

2011-02-21T19:16:00.000-08:00

Cal Lutheran - The Kingsmen did worse than their worst case scenario. Not good. Their 1-2-3 punch turned out to be a 1-2 punch. Player to watch Ray Worley didn't do what he needed to do this weekend, and he needs to win for this team to be good. You can't get it done with only 2 players. A bright spot was Justin Wilson who I would suspect may move to the #3 spot in the coming weeks. I'm not sure where the Kingsmen will drop to in the rankings, but whatever it is, they need to worry about even making NCAAs. With only 6 spots available, I'm thinking the cutoff will be 13 or 14 and they may very well be out of the NCAA tournament when the next rankings come out. This team was demoralized after their first match and things hit them so fast. They went from thinking they would be in the semis to being down 3-0 to NCW in the 7th place match in a 24-hour span. 1 of 2 things will happen: either they will go in the tank and decide they just aren't that good this season, or they will go home and train harder and remember that they still have 13 ranked teams to play this season. The team is still there, they just need to get their heads on straight. Weekend MVP is clearly Nick Ballou because without him they wouldn't have been competitive at all in this tournament. He went 5-1 on the weekend. Their next real test is this Saturday when they take on conference rival Pomona-Pitzer in what amounts to a must win match for the Kingsmen.

NC Wesleyan - They didn't do what they wanted, but at least they got a win. The Bishops know what level they need to be to compete with the top 10 teams in the country and at the moment I see them just on the outskirts of the top 10. They need to go work on their doubles because even though they have an excellent singles lineup top to bottom, they will never do anything if they can't play doubles. I thought taking a point from Trinity was a huge step for them in doubles and then they saw how easy life is after you sweep doubles when they played against CLU. Like I said, I expected something from them in the Wash U match and got nothing, which was disappointing to see. They aren't quite there yet, but they are slowly making progress. Weekend MVP for them is freshman Robert Kielberg who went 4-0 for them in their last two matches including huge doubles wins at #1 over Trinity and Cal Lu. He certainly looks like a promising player for a young Bishops team. Looking ahead, they don't have much until 1 month from today when they take on Hopkins in North Carolina. This is a huge match when it comes to NCAA seeding and hosting as well as a confidence boost for both teams. They solidified their place as a heavy favorite in the USA South and now need to focus their efforts on getting a high ranking and nice NCAA regional.

Mary Washington - A great tournament for the hosts as they did exactly what they needed to do this weekend and that was get a win. They came into the tournament ranked 12 spots below the lowest team and will leave the tournament most likely ranked in the top 15. This was a massive weekend for a team that has been struggling for the better part of the last 2 years and I can't say enough about their fight and effort on Saturday. Todd Helbling does a great job with this program and they should leave this tournament feeling really good about their potential this season. They have an excellent mix of youth and experience and have a complete lineup with a strong #1 in Player To Watch Sam Wichlin supplemented by a deep supporting cast. I have to give weekend MVP to Kevin Aquino who was huge in the Cal Lu match for them. He wasn't all that great in the other 2 matches, but he generated 2 points in their lone win including a come from behind doubles win and the deciding match at 4-4. Looking ahead, the Eagles leave for California and will have 2 important matches out there against Pomona-Pitzer and Redlands. These are 2 matches I expect the Eagles to win and they are matches the Eagles should win if this is actually a top 15 team. Mary Wash still has a lot of work to do as far as getting back to where they were, but this weekend was a large step in the right direction for a program that needed a boost.

Trinity (TX) - Because of their history at this tournament, I didn't expect a ton from the Tigers and I didn't get much. I'll make a few things very clear and I think everyone knows this including them. The Tigers went 5-4 in doubles this weekend. If they continue to play like this, they won't do anything this season and they may not break the top 10. Cory Kowal went 0-6 this weekend. If he can't get wins, they aren't doing anything this season either. As I've stressed several times before, this is a team that gets better as the season progresses and it looks like this season will be the same. A bright spot for the Tigers was freshman Greg Haugen who has 3-0 at the #5 singles spot against 3 very strong opponents. Although he doesn't play doubles, he played a huge role for the Tigers this weekend. I think it's a bit premature for Coach McMindes to mess with his doubles lineup, but he may want to have a second look at his singles lineup, the bottom half in particular. My weekend MVP for the Tigers is sophomore Erick Delafuente who went 5-1 in the weekend including 3-0 in doubles. As shaky as the Tigers doubles was, the 2 team of Frey/Delafuente was incredible, dropping 6 games in 3 matches and cementing themselves as the best 2 team in the country. The #1 team is a completely different team when they are in a dual match versus individual competition and 0-3 is unacceptable for a team that won ITA nationals. They need to find their form if the Tigers want to be a top 8 team this year. The next big match for Trinity will be at the Stag-Hen where they have a tricky opener against Pomona-Pitzer and a probable semifinal date with Emory.

Carnegie Mellon - The positives outweigh the negatives for CMU. They came into this tournament knowing what they had to do and they got the job done. I wasn't sure where the wins would come from, but they stepped up when they needed to against Cal Lu and pushed a definite top 8 team in Cruz. They beat a team ranked ahead of them and should take over the #7 spot in the ITA rankings. The first match was the one they needed so they didn't have to deal with playing teams ranked below them in the consolation. I really can't give them much criticism because they finished in the top half of the tournament. Looking at the negatives, Player To Watch Bobby Mactaggart went 0-6 on the weekend and he will really need to pick up his play if they want to end up with a top seed in their regional. I don't think this team is quite good enough to win if he's not producing wins. They went 3-6 in doubles and from recent memory Coach Girard hasn't gone through a whole season without switching his doubles teams, so I would expect changes within the next month if they continue to lose. Weekend MVP is Duke Miller despite his 2-4 overall record. He got a huge win against Cruz and won the deciding match against Cal Lu versus a player he wasn't expected to beat. CMU needs to rebound quickly because they have a huge match against Kenyon on Saturday on the road. This is a big rivalry and will test CMU to see if they belong on the top 8.

Santa Cruz - Coach Hansen isn't happy unless Cruz takes home first place, so despite having a solid weekend, the Slugs will probably go home thinking about a squandered opportunity. They had a good weekend and it seems as though they patched up their holes nicely from last year. The loss to Wash U was disappointing, but other than that they beat 2 very good teams in tight matches that were both great learning experiences. I think what we do know is that this team needs some serious training if they want to beat CMS this year, who looks to be about the level of Emory. The days of Cruz winning consistent national titles are probably over, but they are certainly still a top 8 teams and potentially a top 5 team. The Slugs played like they always do this weekend, going 5-4 in doubles and showing a ton of heart in all of their singles wins. Weekend MVP for Cruz is definitely Brian Pybas who went 4-2 on the weekend including 3-1 against Trinity and Wash U. Another bright spot for Cruz was their #3 doubles team of Ian Stanley and Eric Rosner who went 3-0 in their matches against 3 solid team and could be in the conversation for best 3 team in the country at the moment. Looking ahead, Cruz hosts Redlands in 3 weeks in what should be a win and then they have a brutal 2 week stretch at the end of March. They will need to be in phenomenal shape to get through all those matches especially since they aren't that deep.

Wash U - A great tournament for the Bears. We weren't sure how they would respond losing 2 key starters and not really bringing in anyone for this year, but they played great tennis start to finish and I was particularly impressed with their doubles. They had a very tricky first round, but I speak time and time again about their discipline and they showed it in all 3 matches. I didn't expect them to be as strong as they were this weekend, but they proved me wrong and showed they could easily end the year in the top 5 and make a 4th straight Final 4 appearance. I don't know if any other team had such a complete team effort throughout the tournament as the Bears ended up going 7-2 in doubles and all 3 spots won at least 2 matches, with the #2 team winning all of their matches. Weekend MVP for the Bears goes to Kareem Farah who went 6-0 on the weekend including 3 dominating doubles performances. I really think the Bears are even at the 4 through 6 spots, so whoever ends up at 6 should be one of the best in the country at his position. That being said, they got wins at 4 against Cruz and NCW, so I wouldn't really call it a weak spot. I know Wash U's focus every year is winning the UAA and beating Emory, and I think they may need a doubles sweep to do it as we saw from Sunday's result. It's certainly not impossible and history is on Wash U's side in this regard. The Bears won't be in D3 action for a month when they travel to Texas to take on Cruz, CMS and Trinity (TX) in what should be an amazing 3 days of tennis.

Emory - This was pretty predictable. The Eagles dropped 5 total points in 3 matches and even though Wash U gave them a scare, they showed they were the best team at this tournament by quite a bit. Pretty much anyone in the country will need to win 5 of 7 matches against the Eagles because with Pottish and Goodwin on their team, it's almost 2-0 before the match starts. Everyone knows you have to get Emory in doubles, and the Eagles doubles was very good but not great this weekend. They were somewhat lucky to not get swept against Wash U and I could see them getting swept by other teams later this spring. If the Eagles can get a point on the board, they are a clear favorite against anyone in the country and I am really looking forward to seeing them take on Amherst and CMS eventually. This 2011 team is very focused and will work very hard to try to bring home their first national title in 5 years. Weekend MVP and tournament MVP is definitely Chris Goodwin who went 6-0 in the weekend, including 2 big wins at #1 doubles against strong teams. After seeing the Eagles results this weekend, I think they are as good as anyone in the country. They won't be tested again until March 10th against Redlands and they will use this as a warm-up for the Stag-Hen when they have a probable semifinal date with Trinity (TX) and a possible final against CMS on the Stags home courts. This will be a real test for Emory and we will see how tough they really are during this California trip.

National Indoors Recap and Thoughts

2011-02-21T11:42:00.000-08:00

Day One

One morning match lived up to its expectations and the other didn't. To begin, NCW doesn't know how to play good doubles, and you can't win big matches against good teams unless you bring a ton of energy in doubles. I really expected NCW to hang in this match, and they did in singles, but doubles was a blowout from the beginning. I talked about this in the preview; if Wash U jumps out to an early lead they will never look back and this is exactly what happened. Impressive match from Adam Putterman to lead the Bears in singles and all but seal the match against a strong player in Rumyantsev. The second match lived up to the hype, but the doubles results surprised me. Brian Pybas took over this match and won it for the Slugs. I think the difference in this match was simple: Bob Hansen. The Tigers were turning the match when the score was 3-2 Cruz and Trinity led 5-2 in the 3rd at #6 singles. Hansen has seen this a million times and was able to calm his freshman down and have him come back for the win. One thing I want to mention, and before I say it I will also mention that I don't watch Trinity practice every day so I don't know the ins and outs of their program. A couple weeks ago, I questioned why Trinity had two very capable upperclassmen on the bench for singles in favor of having freshmen in the lineup. This backfired on them and I have a feeling they may be doing some tinkering with their singles lineup after this weekend. Cruz used their Indoors experience to continue their domination of Trinity and extend the Tigers 1st round losing streak to 6. Cruz moves on to the semi after a real battle to take on Wash U. Just like the preview, not too much to say about Emory and Mary Washington. Emory took it to Mary Wash early and never let them feel like they had a chance. A good effort by most of the Mary Wash guys in singles to hang with superior opponents. Emory looked dominant as always, but it was hard to tell exactly how good they were. The other afternoon match was definitely the match of the tournament between CMU and CLU. Both teams switched up their doubles teams prior to the match and put all of their eggs in the #2 doubles basket. I thought it was interesting that both coaches had similar thinking, it's almost like they discussed it beforehand. CMU came out with a much needed win at #2 doubles which swung the match in their favor. I vastly overestimated the abilities of Ray Worley after his great fall results, he didn't really show up this weekend. An awesome job by CMU's bottom of the lineup as they got the job done. CMU showed a lot of heart that we hadn't seen from them in past years and they deserved the win after pulling out 3 3-setters. The loser of this match could sense they were in trouble the next morning having to come back to play 11 hours later.

Day Two

I was looking forward to both morning matches. I thought NCW-Trinity had the potential to be a thriller. NCW got the point they needed in doubles with a win at #1 that nobody saw coming. I will discuss Trinity's doubles in the team recaps. The singles were all highly contested, and the fact is for all the talent NCW has, they are still undisciplined and a bit rough around the edges when it comes to mental toughness. For the Tigers to pull out 2 close 3-setters to win the match means they were the tougher team mentally. Trinity's doubles still weren't where they needed to be, but props to the Tigers for really getting the job done in singles, because if you would have told me before the match it would be 2-1 heading into singles, I probably would have picked NCW. CLU is tough to beat if they get 2 of the doubles, but they couldn't do it against UMW after blowing a big lead at #2. When Mary Wash came back from 7-3, this turned the match and threw the momentum to the Eagles. The person who had a chance to stop it was Ray Worley and he couldn't bounce back from the night before. UMW won in the identical spots to CMU the night before, putting CLU's weaknesses on display. This was a devastating loss for CLU, but I completely understand why it happened. Credit to UMW, but I'm going to say that if CLU played UMW on Friday and hadn't lost that match the night before, the Kingsmen would beat UMW. Todd Helbling should write a thank you note to Andrew Girard for making his team's tournament. Cal Lu was reeling and we saw that at night.

Not much to say about Emory-CMU, it's clear what happened. When CMU didn't get a point in doubles, they decided to go into tank and save it for the next day. Their #6 guy didn't get the message though and credit to Jooho Yu for getting a point to make the score look a little better. I understand why they did it, seeing a long, grinding match on the other 3 courts and not wanting to fight in an eventual losing effort especially when you had an emotional win the night before. A bright spot for Emory that they went 6-0 in doubles against two solid teams. 3 of the 12 matches this weekend came down to the last match and this was another one of them. Cruz needed to get on top in doubles and they couldn't do it. Pybas was unable to take over this match and credit to Wash U's top doubles teams for getting the job done. I think what happened was Wash U showed their outstanding depth and their talent just outdoes Cruz's talent. Pybas and Koenig kept the Slugs in the match and Sam Rodgers made things interesting, but I don't think there was much mystery about Wash U eventually winning this match when heading into singles. Their strengths showed, but they really won this match by getting 2 of the 3 doubles points. Against top 10 teams, Cruz is in trouble if they only get 1 doubles match.

These night matches are tough to play and we saw that in the NCW-CLU match. I found it interesting that these 2 both came in thinking they could win the tournament and the found themselves in the 7th place match. The Kingsmen had absolutely no heart in this match and understandably so. Worley had to be demoralized and this showed in singles and doubles. Credit to NCW for capitalizing on the opportunity and salvaging a win from this disappointing tournament. They played well enough to win a match and they got their chance. The Kingsmen will go home and have to do some hard thinking about what they want from this season. Mary Wash was able to keep themselves in the 5th place match with a win at #1 doubles, but a more talented Trinity team won this routinely as I would expect. The Eagles made them work which is all you can ask and Trinity's strong doubles propelled them to an eventual victory. The Eagles didn't have quite enough talent to capitalize on the Tigers weaknesses, but Wichlin played a fantastic match winning doubles and beating Frey in a tough 3-setter.

Day Three

A rematch of last year's first round between Cruz and CMU turned out to be a very good match and showed me that CMU is the real deal this year. After the first two days, all they had to show was a win over Cal Lu who finished last and a subpar effort against Emory. Playing a tough 5-4 with Cruz in which they had a chance to take a 4-2 lead in the overall match shows me that they are just as good as they were last year. Again, Hansen's ability to get his players through tough matches proved to be the difference. An upset by Nemerov over Pybas made this match interesting after Cruz took 2 doubles points just like they did last year. The turning point was #4 singles where CMU had a 4-1 lead in the 3rd set and couldn't close it out. The Slugs leave knowing they have a lot of work to do if they want to compete in the West this year. They play Trinity again in 6 weeks so we will see how they've progressed.

Wash U and Emory is hands down the best rivalry in D3. Every time these 2 get together it's unpredictable and this match was the same day. Wash U led early in doubles on all 3 courts and I had a feeling they would need to get that sweep if they wanted to get this win. My tournament MVP Chris Goodwin kept Emory in this match, winning at both of his spots and preventing the sweep. Pottish and Goodwin are just too tough at the top and too much for Wash U to handle. They both only dropped 6 games and neither dropped a set during the tournament. It's tough to win if you are Wash U because you've got to get 5 of the 7 remaining points and that's no easy task against a team with Emory's depth. An unsung hero for Emory this weekend was Nick Szczurek, who put Emory in control of this match with a routine win at #4 singles against a more experienced opponent. Roger Follmer has to have nightmares about Colin Egan as he clinched the 2nd match in a row between these 2. Wash U is going to have a tough time beating Emory this season, but history from the past 3 years shows they should win the UAA tournament. Emory now evens their record against Wash U at Indoors to 2-2 over the past 4 years. The Eagles bring home a well deserved 1st place trophy back to Atlanta.

National Indoors Preview: Full Tournament Predictions

2011-02-17T16:58:00.000-08:00

Consolation Semifinals

Mary Washington vs. Carnegie Mellon - If UMW is going to win a match, it's going to be this one. I just don't think they have the firepower to beat anyone at this tournament. It really depends which Eagles team shows up. It could be the team that lost to CMU 5-4 last year or the team that lost to Tyler 5-3 last year. CMU has too many tough players. Tartans 6-3.

Trinity (TX) vs. NC Wesleyan - This is an interesting match with Trinity's doubles and NCW's singles. NCW has to manage a point in doubles and I don't think they can do it. NCW should run through some of the singles matches, but I also like Trinity to hold on for a win after a doubles sweep. Doubles carries the Tigers to a win. 5-4 Trinity.

Semifinals

Emory vs. Cal Lutheran - These two are similar teams, Emory just does everything better. CLU has that excellent 1-2 punch, but Emory has the best 1-2 punch and I don't see Cal Lu hanging around in this one. The Kingsmen would have to play lights out doubles to even have a chance. Emory loses 2 singles matches max. Eagles 7-2.

Santa Cruz vs. Wash U - A rematch of last year's final with both teams slightly weaker. This depends on how many points Pybas and Koenig can create for Cruz. Wash U has the better depth and the Koenig-Woods match at #2 singles determines a lot. I like Cruz to get ahead in doubles and win a very close match. 5-4 Slugs.

7th Place

Mary Washington vs. NC Wesleyan - It's a shame someone from the strong bottom half has to play in this match, but the Bishops are the most likely candidate heading into the tournament. If they get up for this match, they outclass the Eagles and send the host home in 8th for the 2nd consecutive year. Mary Wash won't have much of a chance. NC Wesleyan 7-2.

5th Place

Carnegie Mellon vs. Trinity - These two played a close 5-4 last year with CMU winning. I see a similar result this year but with the Tigers coming out on top. A lot depends on CMU's ability to put up points in doubles, because I feel that the singles are very even, with CMU having a slight edge at 4 or 5 of the spots. Trinity gets ahead in doubles though and holds on for a singles split. Tigers 5-4.

3rd Place

Cal Lutheran vs. Wash U - An even match between two contrasting styles and I think doubles could end up determining a winner. A lot depends on how drained the Bears will be from their first two matches. Wash U has the depth edge, but Cal Lu has that star power and should dominate at the top. I can't pick against Wash U's experience though. They are a very seasoned team. 5-4 Bears.

Final

Emory vs. Santa Cruz - Both teams have 3 Indoors titles and are trying to tie Gustavus' record of 4 titles. The Slugs have been in the final 7 of 10 years prior to this tournament. Emory has too much this year though. Cruz's strength at the top of the lineup is outdone by Pottish and Goodwin. The Slugs would have to turn in a remarkable doubles performance to win because they are outclassed top to bottom in singles. Emory will be ready and take the title easily. Emory wins Indoors 7-2 over Cruz.

1. Emory
2. Cruz
3. Wash U
4. Cal Lu
5. Trinity
6. CMU
7. NCW
8. Mary Wash

National Indoors Preview: Quarterfinal #4: #5 UC Santa Cruz vs. #4 Trinity (TX)

2011-02-16T15:41:00.000-08:00

Santa Cruz's Parker Larsen

I've been debating for a month who to pick in this match, but I decided I just can't ignore the history of Indoors and the history between these 2 teams. This is the blockbuster quarterfinal this year, pitting defending champion Cruz against a Trinity team that is hungry to get back in the limelight after a couple years outside the top 10. This is the Tigers first test, and they couldn't have asked for a harder one. I've praised TU's doubles lineup so much in the preseason and it's a given they are going to play good doubles, but the one team that has the ability raise their game in doubles and hang with Trinity is Cruz. We saw it last year from the Slugs. They went through the motions in their first 2 matches and got close wins, but all of the sudden they turn it on in the final and blitz Wash U in doubles. Coach Hansen has a 6th sense about when his guys need to raise their level, and they are going to have to do it during doubles in this match. I don't know if I expect Cruz to come out on top after doubles, but I think they will be in all 3 matches with chances to win. To me, this match is about the bottom of the lineup in singles. The 3 through 6 positions will determine who ends up a winner. I think Pybas and Koenig will be a bit much for Trinity to handle at the top 2 singles spots, so they'll have to win it with their depth. They are the more experienced team in the bottom of the lineup with senior captain Cory Kowal and reigning West ROTY Erick Delafuente going up against Cruz's bottom of the lineup, who has only 1 starter from last year's team. The Slugs always do this though. They take players that no one knows, throw them in the bottom of the lineup and make a good team out of it. This year will be no exception, Cruz will be solid at every spot. I consider Trinity the only team who's a real threat to beat Emory in this tournament because of their doubles play. Cruz's strong top of the lineup is negated by Emory, so the Eagles should be rooting hard for the Slugs in this. I think it's very likely that the winner of this quarterfinal will find themselves in the final against Emory. When Brad Gilbert does his pre-match analysis on ESPN, he gives checks to whoever is stronger in a given category. Trinity gets many more checks than Cruz heading into this match, but then you get to the "intangibles" category and Cruz gets infinite checks, because the bottom line is they are great at this tournament and they have owned the Tigers for a decade. Keep in mind McMindes was TU's assistant during their current 5 match losing streak in the Indoors first round. I just can't pick against Hansen and the Slugs in this even though logic tells me to go with Trinity. I'll take Cruz 5-4 and it may come down to the last match.

National Indoors Preview: Quarterfinal #3: #7 Wash U vs. #11 NC Wesleyan

2011-02-15T21:12:00.000-08:00

This match reminds me a lot of last year's Indoors first round between Wash U and Hopkins. NCW is a very talented team, maybe more so than Wash U, but the disciplined Bears go about their business quietly and just win matches. Where I think this year's NCW team may have an advantage over last year's Hopkins team is that they have played in a big match. They were intimidated and jittery against Middlebury in the NCAA quarterfinal last year, but they got the experience and now they know how to approach this match. On 2 occasions last year, we saw what Wash U does to teams who aren't ready to play, in the Indoors first round and NCAA quarters. They are very disciplined and well coached, and you know what you are going to get from them. The Bears have been to 2 consecutive Indoors finals for a reason. This is cliche, but this match will be as close as NCW makes it. If they come out fired up and get on the board in doubles, this could turn into a battle, because NCW certainly has the personnel to hang with Wash U in singles. If the Bishops come out scared, Wash U will jump on them early in doubles and this will turn into another 8-1 blowout. Unlike against Hopkins last year, NCW won't be coming back from any 3-0 holes in this match, because when Wash U senses you are down, they turn it on and end the match. The Bishops singles lineup is solid top to bottom, as they have a new freshman at #1, pushing Saari, Rumyantsev and Lemongo back to 2, 3 and 4. The top 3 singles spots should be very even, but NCW's guys will have to play flawless matches to take out Wash U's seniors in their last Indoors. Wash U will most likely be playing sophomores at 3 through 6, but they've all been there before so the experience factor won't be an issue. Doubles is the key to this match as I eluded to above. I don't think NCW will have an answer to Stein/Woods, so they need to focus their efforts on 2 and 3 to at least get 1 point on the board. I think NCW has an outside chance if they can get 1 point, and they are in great shape if they get 2 points. The singles spots are all tough to call, but if there's an opening for NCW, it may be at the 3 and 4 spots, as I believe the Bishops are very strong there. This is a very winnable match for NCW, but I have to go with the more experienced and disciplined Wash U team in a 6-3 win that will be closer than a lot of people think. NCW will need to play a great match to win, but they certainly have the capability to do it.

2011 Team Preview #31: Bowdoin

2011-02-15T19:24:00.000-08:00

Stephen Sullivan

Coach: Colin Joyner, 5th Season
Location: Brunswick, Maine
Conference: NESCAC
2008 Ranking: 10
2009 Ranking: 13
2010 Ranking: 15
2011 Projected: 14

Bowdoin is becoming a fixture in the top 15 under head coach Colin Joyner and are only 3 years removed from their NESCAC tournament title. I think this team deserves, and gets, a lot of respect, even from the top NESCAC schools who beat them year after year. Season over season they have been a model of consistency as you can see from their rankings, but they often have their bad matches during the season. I don't think anyone benefits more than Bowdoin from the NCAA adding back the 6th Pool C spot in 2011, because after Chicago has slipped, guess who's in line to get that spot? The Polar Bears were robbed last year, and of course they were disappointed by it. You could see that in their uninspired performance during the NESCAC first round when they fell to Trinity (CT) without much of a fight. This was a good team last year, they took out Redlands in March, and they did it all after an injury to their #2 Oscar Pena, who was out for the season. The combination of having him at full health along with my preseason All-American Stephen Sullivan gives Bowdoin a top 2 that can go toe to toe with the best in the country. What I'm worried about on this year's team is the supporting cast. Juniors Nicolas Fenichell and Josh Cranin should give Bowdoin a decent middle of the lineup, but they have to win against the likes of Williams and Trinity (CT), and I'm not sold on them yet. Bowdoin hasn't had a ton of success against the NESCAC top 3 during the past couple years, so they have to get things done during their out of conference matches. They get shots at CLU, Cruz and Trinity (TX), and getting even one win in those 3 would give Bowdoin a sterling NCAA resume. There are obviously danger matches for Bowdoin too, and these include Bates, Trinity (CT) and Whitman. Those 3 are must wins if Bowdoin wants to be playing in the post-season. The Polar Bears have set up their schedule so they don't need to beat the NESCAC top 3 to get into the tournament. It's unfortunate they won't have a legitimate shot at a conference title, but 4th in the NESCAC should get you in the tournament this year. One thing I didn't mention is Bowdoin's doubles, and this separates their good matches from bad matches. Out of all the teams in the country, they may have the most inconsistent doubles results, and they have to recognize that and be ready to play every match. I don't think the top 10 is within their reach this year, but not finishing top 15 and missing the tournament would be a big disappointment. If they get a nice NCAA region with Midd or Williams as their top seed, Bowdoin could find themselves in their first Final 8 in quite some time.

National Indoors Preview: Quarterfinal #2: #8 Cal Lutheran vs. #12 Carnegie Mellon

2011-02-14T20:37:00.000-08:00

Cal Lutheran's Ray Worley

CMU is probably the better "team" top to bottom, but they face a big problem in this match. Cal Lutheran has 3 players that are better than anyone on their team. That's very difficult to overcome. I'll get to the matches shortly, but CMU will have to pull an upset to win this match. Ballou, Giuffrida and Worley account for 5 of the potential 9 points in the match, and if they bring their best stuff, the Tartans won't have an answer. There are certainly a lot of variables in this match though. This is probably the first time in a long time that Cal Lutheran will be playing indoor tennis and they were also not very impressive in their spring opener against a weak Chapman team, dropping 2 points and struggling at another spot. This is about Cal Lu's top guys though. CMU is going to play a solid match and hang around, but it's Cal Lu's for the taking. Ballou seems to be playing at a very high level recently, and he may be the best singles player in the tournament not on Emory, as well as the best doubles player not named Kowal or Pybas. Overall, he may be the most dominant player at the entire tournament. In my mind, Cal Lu is a heavy favorite at the top 3 singles positions. I also give them an edge at the top 2 doubles spots because I can't pick against their big 3. Carnegie is a clear favorite at 3 doubles as well as 6 singles and that leaves 4 and 5 singles as toss ups. There are a couple things that could turn the match in CMU's favor. CLU is big on their Brazilian freshman Marcelo Sousa, who is slotted to play 2 doubles and 5 singles. They think he is going to be a top player, but he struggled in the opener against Chapman. If he holds down the 2 doubles team, CMU could end up taking that spot and a 2-1 lead heading into singles. This could put them in the driver's seat and give them a chance with wins at 4-6. The other way CMU wins is if their seniors pull upsets. I carefully selected my players to watch in the pre-season, and if Mactaggart is able to knock off Giuffrida in singles or Ballou in doubles, I love CMU's chances in this. The same goes for Nemerov taking out Ballou in singles or Giuffrida in doubles. Cal Lu doesn't have the team they had last year, but they are still very good. A lot of people voting in the poll seem to like CMU, and maybe they know something I don't. I'm taking Cal Lu in a pretty routine 6-3 win. I think they will get 2 doubles spots, the top 3 singles spots and 1 more point 4 through 6. This match is on Cal Lu's rackets, and they'll win if they are sharp.

National Indoors Preview: Quarterfinal #1: #3 Emory vs. #19 Mary Washington

2011-02-13T21:41:00.000-08:00

2009 Indoors 1st Round: Emory d. Mary Washington 9-0

Look at the above box score. That is exactly what will happen on Friday. I really don't need to put much into this preview, and I will also try not to use the term "Eagles," because I'll just confuse myself and everyone else. To begin, I'll say that in Mary Wash's first match of the spring against George Mason today, both Sam Wichlin and Will Apperson didn't play. They will probably be #1 and #3, respectively, for UMW this season, and they may also form the #2 doubles team. For the sake of Mary Wash being competitive at all in this entire tournament, let's hope those 2 are playing. Without them, UMW will struggle to get points in their 3 matches. One thing you can count on is that Mary Wash will fight, but this match is about Emory. I don't think we will get a true indication of how good they are in this match, but they have an opportunity to make a statement, just like they did in 2009. Honestly, I don't expect Emory to beat teams this weekend, I expect them to destroy everyone this weekend. I don't think anyone will come close to Emory. Browning still has to be thinking about the NCAA loss last year and he will not let it happen again. Emory will show up in top form this weekend and I have high expectations for them. If anything is wrong, their doubles lineup is in a bit of disarray at the moment, so they will probably use Friday's match to get things in order and get some of their younger guys experience on a big stage. If Mary Wash is going to do anything in this match, they probably have their best shot at either 2 or 3 doubles, depending upon which spot Pottish doesn't play. Mary Wash also could give Emory a little trouble at the 4 through 6 spots, but the top 3 singles spots should all be blowouts. I rarely predict 9-0 results, but I'm going to do it for this match. Mary Wash just can't match Emory's talent, and all they can hope for is to fight their hearts out for pride on their home courts. Emory should advance to Saturday's semifinal round without having to exert much energy. Mary Wash needs to not get discouraged, because their Saturday morning consolation match will be much more winnable.

National Indoors Preview: Best and Worst

2011-02-13T21:30:00.001-08:00

Last year heading into the tournament, I thought there were 6 teams that could win it. I think that again, except last year there was no heavy favorite like Emory is this year. Looking back, Cruz was probably my 4th pick to win it all last year. Let's go over the best and worst case scenarios for each team at this weekend's National Indoors.

Emory
Best - The Eagles rout Mary Washington giving up 9 total games in doubles and don't surrender a set in singles. They are equally as dominant in the semis against Cal Lutheran coming out with a 2-1 lead after doubles and crushing the Kingsmen in singles for an 8-1 victory. In the final, the Eagles play their hated rival Wash U and sweep doubles before getting easy wins at 1 and 2 and then putting their backups in to play the rest of the match. The Eagles capture the title with a 7-2 win.

Worst - Emory comes out overconfident and goes down 2-1 in doubles against Mary Washington. They struggle to even the match and have to come down to the wire to pull out a 5-4 win with a 3-set victory at 4-4 where one of their starters cramps and can't play the next day. They are drained and get swept in doubles by Cal Lu and lose both of the top 2 singles spots to eventually lose 6-3. They play Wash U for 3rd/4th and again get swept in doubles before getting crushed at the bottom of the lineup in a 5-4 loss.

Mary Washington
Best - An energized Eagles team comes out hot and takes 2 of the doubles against Emory. They push Emory in the bottom of the lineup and fall in a very hard fought 5-4. The next day they come out fired up again and go up 2-1 against Carnegie Mellon in doubles. Wichlin gets an easy win and they pull out 2 dramatic wins in the bottom of the lineup to give them a come from behind 5-4 win. In the 5th place match they hang with Trinity (TX) in doubles and fall in a hard fought 6-3 battle.

Worst - They get embarrassed by Emory in front of a home crowd of 200, losing 8-3 across the board in doubles and not winning more than 4 games in any set in singles. They are so demoralized the next day that they forget to show up against CMU and lose 8-1 with a garbage-time 3rd set match tiebreak win. They try to pick themselves up for the 7th place match but run into an NC Wesleyan team who is very hungry for a win and again get crushed 8-1. They don't get a doubles win all weekend.

Cal Lutheran
Best - The Kingsmen come into the tournament with a chip on their shoulder and crush CMU 8-1 winning all six singles matches and only surrendering 1 set. The next day, they sweep Emory in doubles and their top 2 take down Pottish and Goodwin for a 6-3 win. In the final, they play rival Santa Cruz and it is a repeat of last year's regular season, with the Kingsmen sweeping doubles and again taking the top 2 spots in an eventual 6-3 win to give them the title.

Worst - CLU doesn't adjust to the indoor conditions and goes down 2-1 to CMU in doubles. Giuffrida has a bad match and they lose in the bottom of the lineup in a 5-4 overall loss. They struggle against Mary Washington but have enough weapons to pull out a 5-4 that goes down to the last match. They take on Trinity (TX) in the 5th place match and get destroyed in doubles before losing in the bottom of the lineup again in an eventual 6-3 loss. They go 0-6 at 5 and 6 singles.

Carnegie Mellon
Best - They come out hungry for a win after last year's disappointing Indoors and jump on CLU 2-1. They get 3 wins in the middle and bottom of the lineup for a 5-4 win. In the semis, they get ahead of Emory 2-1 and battle at the bottom of the lineup before losing a 5-4 war. In the 3rd place match, they get revenge against Wash U for last year's NCAA quarter and go ahead of the Bears 2-1 before splitting singles with wins in the top of the lineup for a comfortable 5-4 win.

Worst - CLU comes out hot and sweeps CMU in doubles before getting easy wins at the top of the lineup. The Kingsmen go on to win 8-1. CMU is deflated and comes out flat against Mary Washington getting swept in doubles in a match that is never close. They lose 6-3. In the 7th place match, they run into NC Wesleyan and again get beaten badly in another match that is never close and lose 7-2. They fall out of the top 15 and their NCAA chances are slim to none.

NC Wesleyan
Best - NCW shows up with new great freshmen and surprises everyone. They are able to take 2 and 3 doubles from Wash U before winning 4 of the 6 singles matches for a routine 6-3 win. The next round, they win 1 of 3 doubles against Cruz, but are able to win the 3 through 6 spots in a thrilling 5-4 win that comes down to the last match. In the final, they jump on Emory in doubles and go up 2-1 before splitting singles taking 4 through 6 to win the title.

Worst - The Bishops turn in another sub-par performance in doubles and get crushed by Wash U going down 3-0. They don't have the ability to come back this time and lose 8-1. In the backdraw, they run into another doubles powerhouse in Trinity (TX) and go down 3-0 before splitting singles in an eventual 6-3 loss. In the 7th place match, they go down 2-1 to Mary Wash in doubles before righting the ship only to win 3 of 6 matches and lose in a 5-4 heartbreaker.

Wash U
Best - The Bears jump on NCW early just like they did to Hopkins last year and all but end the match after going up 3-0. They dominate singles and end up winning another routine 8-1 1st round. In the next round they get revenge on Cruz for last year's final and go up 2-1 in doubles before taking 3 through 6 singles in an easy 6-3 win. In the final they take on hated rival Emory and once again sweep doubles before barely holding on for another very close 5-4 win.

Worst - The Bears really miss John Watts at the top of the lineup and it shows. They struggle the entire match and lose at the bottom of the lineup in singles in doubles to NCW in a 6-3 loss. In the consolation, they run into Trinity's outstanding doubles and go down 3-0 before losing 6-3 once again. They find themselves in unfamiliar territory, but they are able to beat Mary Wash solidly 7-2 to at least get one win during the tournament.

Santa Cruz
Best - Cruz does what they did last year and surprises everyone. They open against Trinity and are able to go ahead 2-1 in doubles before winning 4 of the 6 singles spots to win 6-3. In the semi, they do the same thing to Wash U, dominating at the top of the lineup and beating the Bears for the 2nd year in a row. In the final, the come out and dominate Emory in doubles going up 3-0. Pybas beats Pottish and they get a win at the bottom of the lineup to win 5-4. Pybas and Koenig both go 6-0 on the weekend.

Worst - Cruz's inexperience shows and they don't have last year's magic. They get swept in doubles by Trinity and lose at the bottom of the lineup to lose a 6-3 match that was never close. In the backdraw, they underestimate NCW and end up losing 5-4 even after going up 2-1 heading into singles. In the 7th place match, they beat Mary Wash, but not before having to sweat in a very close 6-3 win. This is their worst Indoors performance out of all 11 appearances.

Trinity (TX)
Best - Trinity dominates in doubles start to finish and manages to to get 2 singles wins each match. They sweep Cruz before splitting 3 through 6 singles to get a 5-4 win. The same thing happens against Wash U except the top of their lineup comes through this time in another 5-4 win after a doubles sweep. In the finals, they play inspired doubles and lose 10 total games to Emory. They are able to get 2 wins in the 4 through 6 spots to take their first Indoors title.

Worst - Trinity does what they've been doing in their warm-up matches and can't get it done in singles. They come out anxious against Cruz and go down 2-1. They end up losing 6-3. They take on NCW and sweep doubles before falling apart in singles and losing 5-4. In the 7th place match they sweep Mary Wash in doubles but this time they are able to hang on for a 5-4 win. Another disappointing Indoors performance.

National Indoors Preview: General Discussion and Interesting Stats

2011-02-12T23:28:00.000-08:00

Mary Washington's University Tennis Center

I wanted to make a post to discuss some general thoughts on Indoors as well as provide some stats on Indoors history. To begin, the ITA published stats on Indoors through 2008. I updated them to include the past 2 years. Stats are courtesy of the ITA, so thank you to their team for putting this together. I just did the easy part.

Most Championships: Gustavus Adolphus - 4; Emory, UC Santa Cruz - 3.

Most Final Appearances: UC Santa Cruz - 7; Emory, Gustavus Adolphus - 5; Washington U (MO) - 2; Claremont-Mudd-Scripps - 1

Most Victories: Emory - 20; UC Santa Cruz, Gustavus Adolphus - 19; Trinity (TX) - 11; Washington U (MO) - 6; Claremont-Mudd-Scripps - 5; DePauw, MIT, Mary Washington, Washington & Lee - 3; Redlands, Kenyon, Johns Hopkins - 2; Kalamazoo, Carnegie Mellon, Pacific Lutheran - 1.

Most Tournament Appearances: UC Santa Cruz, Emory, Gustavus - 10; Trinity (TX) - 9; Washington U (MO) - 5; Mary Washington, DePauw - 4; MIT, Claremont-Mudd-Scripps - 3; Kenyon, Johns Hopkins, Redlands, Washington & Lee, Whitman - 2; Washington Coll (MD), Bates, Carnegie Mellon, California Lutheran, Kalamazoo, Pacific Lutheran, Swarthmore - 1.

10 Interesting Tidbits About Indoors That I've Put Together:

-10 years of Indoors: only 3 different champions and 5 different finalists. I found this very interesting, but I also think the chances of that changing this year are very slim.

-We have 4 teams playing Indoors for the 2nd consecutive year and they are all in different 1st round matches. This is the first time NCW will be participating. All others have been here before.

-Wash U and Emory have played at Indoors in 3 consecutive years with Wash U holding a 2-1 advantage. All 3 years, whoever won the Indoors match lost in the UAA final.

-Wash U has lost in 2 consecutive finals. In 10 years, no one has lost in 3 consecutive finals.

-Last year was the only year in the 10-year history of Indoors that Trinity (TX) didn't qualify.

-The last time Trinity (TX) won an Indoors 1st round was 2004. They've lost 5 consecutive 1st round matches since then. In the same time period of '05-'10, Cruz is 5-1 in the 1st round. Their only loss came to Kenyon in 2009 and they went on to win the NCAA title that year.

-This is the 3rd site for Indoors. Whitman hosted for 2 years and then Gustavus hosted for 8 years.

-This will be the first time in the history of Indoors that none of the top 3 ranked teams in the country are participating. CMS turned down a bid for the 2nd consecutive year after attending in 2009 and finishing 3rd.

-Emory and Mary Wash played in the first round in 2009. Emory won 9-0 and didn't lose a set. Cruz and Trinity (TX) played in 1st round consolation in 2009. Cruz won 9-0. From those teams, all 6 of Trinity's doubles starters from that match are still on their roster. None of Cruz's doubles starters are still on their roster.

-Mary Wash is 1-5 in their last 6 Indoors matches.

General Discussion: Heading into the tournament this year, it's hard not to pick top seeded Emory as the favorite. They won the tournament 2 years ago and I don't see anyone getting in their way this year. Cruz won the tournament as the top seed last year and returns as the 2 seed, opening against a Trinity team who they haven't lost to in 10 years. I think a potential Emory-Cruz final is a definite possibility. A big point of discussion is the transfer to indoor tennis for the California teams. Cruz has always seemed to take this like fish in water, so we will see how Cal Lutheran handles it this year. They take on last year's 6th place finisher Carnegie Mellon and I would assume this is the first ever meeting between these 2 teams. The winner gets the luxury of playing Emory in the semis. I think the Wash U-NCW quarterfinal has a lot of potential to be a great match. I spoke with a coach of NCW after their 5-0 loss to Midd last year and he said they weren't ready to play. I'm sure they will be ready to go in this one. Outside of Hopkins and Midd in NCAAs last year, this is probably the biggest match in the history of their program. Mary Wash did a great job taking over the tournament, but they are in over their heads just as Gustavus was last year. I've been debating what's more of a mismatch: last year's Kenyon-Gustavus opener or this year's Emory-Mary Wash opener.

The draw is here
If you were to re-seed Indoors according to my preseason rankings it would be: #1 Emory v. #8 UMW, #4 Wash U v. #5 Cal Lu, #3 Cruz v. #6 NCW, #2 Trinity v. #7 CMU. I personally think the matches we have right now are better than these re-seeded matches. Given the current bracket, I don't think it's a stretch to say that the worst team in the bottom half would be the 2nd best team in the top half. We will find out because I'm sure Cal Lu does not agree with this. Mary Wash has slow indoor courts, so this will be a large contrast from the quick surface at Gustavus. This should suit Emory well and will certainly play an impact in all doubles matches as I expect service breaks to increase. With only 3 courts available per match, Indoors is a lot of pressure and a much different experience than playing all 6 matches at once. This is why I throw the advantage to the players who have been there before. I'm looking forward to a great tournament.

2011 Team Preview #30: DePauw

2011-02-12T22:40:00.000-08:00

Michael Rardon

Coach: Scott Riggle, 2nd Season
Location: Greencastle, Indiana
Conference: SCAC
2008 Ranking: 17
2009 Ranking: 12
2010 Ranking: 18
2011 Projected: 17

I really have nothing but praise for this program. DePauw has cemented themselves in the 2nd tier of teams and one of the givens each season is that the Tigers will be really tough to beat, no matter who they are playing. They don't get the top notch recruits that a lot of other top D3 schools get, but they maximize the talent that they have and mold hardworking players who aren't intimidated by anyone. I don't know if this is the case with any other team in the country, but DePauw has had 4 different seniors play #1 singles during the past 4 seasons. It seems when a player is finally developed and ready to compete at the top of the lineup, it's time for him to graduate. This year I don't think that will be the case despite DePauw returning an excellent core of 4 players led by Hunter Schouweiler and Michael Rardon, two of the most underrated players in the country. Also in the lineup should be sophomores Noah Swiler and Andrew Kahn, who will be stronger after getting a year of experience under their belt. They finished 18th last year and missed the tournament, but this team was points away from sweeping Emory in doubles in the Indoors 1st round. That's the story of this team though. They are always close and will give anyone a battle, but they rarely beat the top teams. One thing to remember is that DPU won their conference between '07-'09 before Trinity took it back last year. A conference title should be on the list of goals for DePauw this year because I'm not sure if they are quite strong enough to grab a Pool C bid. I can see this team finishing anywhere between 10 and 19 this year and a lot will depend on the prowess of their enormous freshman class. Everyone in the country knows not to take this team lightly, so their element of surprise won't be there in their big matches against Chicago, Wash U and a likely GLCA semifinal against Kenyon or CMU. They are going to have to play tough doubles if they want to hang with Trinity (TX) this year in the conference final because last year a doubles sweep did in their NCAA chances. The unfortunate thing is that I'm seeing a plateau for this program since their run to the Elite 8 in 2007, and I'm not sure how they are going to break out of it. Teams gain elite status with recruiting, and I don't know if DePauw has the potential to get the necessary recruits to compete with the best. Until they solve this problem, they will continue to grind away and hope to find their way back to the NCAA tournament.

Saturday Recap: Pawa Saves Chicago's Season and Other Results

2011-02-12T21:46:00.001-08:00

Chicago d. Denison 5-4

It took a 7-5 win in the 3rd set of the deciding match for Chicago to beat Denison today, not even 24 hours after the Maroons were dominated by Kenyon. Denison went up 2-1 after doubles, but Chicago was able to use their talent to pull out 4 singles matches. #6 was the only match that went to 3 sets. This kept Chicago's hope for an NCAA At-Large bid alive for the time being. Coach Perry's decision to input Kunal Pawa into the lineup paid off. Despite getting a win, this is far from where Chicago needs to be, as Denison is not a top 20 team. The Maroons have to forget about this trip to Ohio and regroup before they continue with their season.

Auburn-Montgomery d. Emory 5-4

A very good result for Emory as they mixed up their doubles teams, but it didn't pay off. Browning is hoping to get his 3 strongest teams in the lineup for Indoors, but it seems he doesn't know who to go with quite yet. AUM is an excellent team, and it seems Pottish is playing at a ridiculous level in singles right now to get a win like that against a top NAIA player. At the moment, it seems like no one will even come close to Emory next weekend. I'm liking this team more and more and they can take a huge step forward if they manage to get their doubles in order.

Incarnate Word d. Trinity (TX) 5-4

Typical Trinity match. Up 2-1 after doubles and end up losing for the 2nd time in 3 days. They seem to still be toying with their singles lineup a little bit which is fine in these exhibition matches, but they need to get things in order for Friday. It's great that Trinity is playing good doubles, but I've said that they are only as good as their singles. In their last 2 matches, their singles play has stabbed them in the back, so hopefully they can get it in order, because beating Cruz is one of the hardest tasks in D3 tennis.

Point Loma d. Redlands 7-2
Vanguard d. Redlands 6-3

Not too much to say here, as both of these opponents are excellent teams. Decent results for the Bulldogs, but the thing that stuck out to me is that Darren Dahl was dominant at 4 singles in both matches, a wonderful sign for Redlands. Hammond is still missing, and he will definitely strengthen singles and should form a great 2 doubles team with Keven Wong. It's good for Redlands to have these early season tests because they need all the practice they can get.

Wash U d. McKendree 7-2

Follmer also seems to be messing with his lineup, as he mixed and matched doubles teams tonight and only played half his starters in singles. He's going to have to get his strongest singles lineup ready because we know NCW is a very deep team that can punish you in the 4 through 6 spots. Wash U does have the potential to dominate in doubles and this was another good win for them.

Indoors Preview Tenative Schedule

2011-02-12T09:17:00.000-08:00

Today: General discussion, Some historical Indoors stats
Sunday: Best and worst scenarios for each team, Emory-UMW preview
Monday: CLU-CMU preview
Tuesday: Wash U-NCW preview
Wednesday: Cruz-Trinity preview
Thursday: Full tournament predictions
Friday: Play begins 9AM

CMS Wins, Trinity (TX) & Wash U Compete In Pre-Indoors Matches

2011-02-12T08:58:00.000-08:00

CMS d. Westmont 6-3

CMS is impressive. This is a team they lost to 5-4 last year and they turned the tables playing what seems to be only 4 or their 6 normal starters in singles. I would think that Erani and Perezevin would make their way into the singles lineup rather than Ellis and Wu. On the other hand, I would assume this is their full time doubles lineup, and this is where they struggled. The Stags are not untouchable in doubles, and they now know what they need to work on before their difficult stretch in March. Seeing how good their singles lineup is really makes me think that there is a huge gap between the top 3 teams in D3 and everyone else, but out of those top 3, CMS and Emory may be a lot closer to Amherst than I originally thought.

St. Edward's d. Trinity (TX) 5-4

Not quite sure why Trinity (TX) didn't play their full lineup in their season opener against Abilene Christian, but they were full strength in this one. As usual, Trinity got on top in doubles and struggled in singles. Frey lost to a player who he beat the previous year, but the most surprising thing was to see Cocanougher at #3 singles. I'm thinking there could be an injury in play here, as Bobby sat out the first match in both singles and doubles, and now is back at the 3 spot. It's not often that you see an ITA champion playing 3 for his team, but I certainly would not consider it a stack in this instance. It just goes to show to that the Tigers players are very even. On a final note, I would be surprised to see Trinity bench Murray in singles at Indoors in favor of 2 freshmen. Murray has played in big matches and I think you have to go with experience especially when you are dealing with inexperienced players from Cruz.

Wash U d. Southern Indiana 5-4

The Bears were not rock solid in this, but they often don't bring their best stuff for these warm up matches. I have no doubt Wash U will be ready for Indoors next week, but I think this match is a perfect example of what I meant when I said they aren't as good as last year. It's interesting that they were able to take 2 of 3 doubles from a strong Drury team, but dropped 2 of 3 to a team outside the top 30 in D2. While Wash U was certainly not in top form last night, one thing that I can guarantee is that they will be on top form on Friday. A good performance from the top of the lineup by Wash U and this is something that they will need all season. This may be an alarming result to see the Bears struggle, but knowing this team and their coach, they will be more than prepared for Indoors.

Kenyon Tops Chicago 6-3

2011-02-11T20:42:00.000-08:00

Box Score

Most of yesterday I was thinking that I was stupid for picking against a team that has 6 4-stars, 2 3-stars and 3 international players in favor of a team that boasts no 4-star players. It's almost like a curse at this point. Play on the Chicago Men's team = lose all the abilities you had to win in junior tennis. This match was never close and my hat goes off to the Lords for doing what they had to do to win. Apologies to Kenyon, but to me this is much more about Chicago underachieving year after year and digging themselves into early season holes. They've done it again. Marty Perry needs to sit down and figure out what is going on here, because obviously something is not right. A team with this talent in the hands of Roger Follmer is top 5 in the country, because he would not allow this to happen. It's almost like Chicago was completely unprepared to play at 3 of the 6 singles spots as well as #1 doubles. OK, so Kenyon can win the match, but I think even the Lords would agree they shouldn't be blowing out Chicago, and this is exactly what happened. The Maroons never had a chance in this one and I almost feel dumb for overestimating Chicago year after year. If there's any piece of good news for UChi, it's that it is only February and they do have chances to rebound, although with 6 spots and so many teams in the running, they will really need to pick up their play to qualify for the tournament. Their first few matches certainly were an indication that they just aren't that good. They played like a team who should not be in the top 20 last night, even though the quality of their roster screams top 10. I don't know if they are so arrogant that they don't care about winning, but they are wasting their time practicing tennis every day if they are going to perform like this in matches. It's become laughable at this point, and Kenyon made them look terrible last night. I underestimated the Lords, and if last night was any indication, they can play with anyone in the country. On a final note, Chicago needs to regroup for Denison today, because if they lose, which they clearly can, they may as well not play the rest of their season.

2011 Team Preview #29: California Lutheran

2011-02-11T15:15:00.000-08:00

Nick Ballou

Coach: Mike Gennette, 18th Season
Location: Thousand Oaks, California
Conference: SCIAC
2008 Ranking: 27
2009 Ranking: 26
2010 Ranking: 7
2011 Projected: 8

I don't think anyone outside of their team expected CLU to do what they did last year. The admirable thing about this program is that they are back this year expecting more from themselves. From afar, it seems like the Kingsmen are weaker than last year, but with their outstanding development, they just might be better. Cal Lu would have probably won 3 of the NCAA regionals last year and would have had a good chance at winning another 2. But they aren't in the East, they are in the incredibly difficult West, and the bottom line is that they were 3rd best in the West last year. They went a combined 1-3 against the teams they need to beat, and doing that again this year will not get them where they want to be. CMS is going to awfully tough to take down, but Cal Lu certainly has the tools to do it. They have 2 All-Americans who I'd consider top 15 in the country, if not top 10, in Nick Ballou and Andrew Giuffrida. They hold up this team and will be joined at the top of the lineup this year by sophomore Ray Worley, who was one of my players to watch. Those 3 can take on the top 3 of anyone in the country, but what will determine CLU's ultimate success if their bottom of the lineup. Last year's #6 Justin Wilson takes over at 4 and freshman Marcelo Sousa should be 5. The Kingsmen are expecting a lot of these 2 in singles and doubles, and they need to perform in case their top guys slip. One thing you can count on is CLU not starting with a 16 match win streak this year because they are attending the National Indoors. This is unfamiliar territory for them on indoor courts and I don't expect a lot out of them. I think they could be satisfied with a 1st round win. For their sake, let's hope they don't peak at the wrong time like they did last year, and save something for the end of the season. They will take on 16 ranked teams before their conference tournament and this is a lot of matches for a team that's not that deep. The Kingsmen have top 5 potential, but more realistically should finish between 7 and 10. Again, there's a ton of pressure on their top guys to win every match, and this wears on you. I don't see the Kingsmen making it out of the West, because I don't know if they have the capability to beat Cruz and CMS on back to back days. Against the Stags, I see CLU having a very slim chance at 4 through 6, meaning they have to win 5 of the 6 remaining spots in the match, and that's a lot to ask. This is a top 10 team who deserves to be in the Final 8, but I think it would take an amazing effort for them to make it.

2011 Team Preview #28: Trinity (CT)

2011-02-10T18:00:00.000-08:00

Anson McCook

Coach: Paul Assaiante, 15th Season
Location: Hartford, Connecticut
Conference: NESCAC
2008 Ranking: 13
2009 Ranking: 19
2010 Ranking: 14
2011 Projected: 22

Trinity (CT) has missed the tournament for 2 consecutive seasons and is obviously looking to get back to the success that they found during the 2008 season. This will probably be a tough year for the Bantams as they lost 2 of their top 4 from last year's team and I'm not sure if they found replacements. I heard last summer that they may be getting an international player who would step into the top of the lineup this Spring, but I'm not sure if that panned out. The same thing has done in the Bantams the past 2 years and that's the lack of an out of conference schedule. It's a problem that they have somewhat addressed for this season, but the problem is not totally cured. The last two seasons, the Bantams went to California, got a couple of wins, but not enough to mean anything, and then came home and lost to the top 3 teams in the NESCAC. The problem wasn't that they were a weak team, it's just that they didn't have any wins on their schedule to get them ranked high enough to qualify for Pool C. They added fellow Pool C competitor Redlands to their schedule, and this is a winnable match for them this year. At the top of their lineup, they still have former Middlebury starter Rich Bonfiglio, as well as senior Anson McCook, who is one of the most underrated players in the country. Their lack of depth will really hurt them though, and this is the difference between now and their 2008 team that was so strong. The thing to remember is they are only 3 years off entering the NESCAC tournament as the #1 seed, but that seems like a very long time ago for this program. They finished 14th last year, but it didn't really seem like they made much noise for the majority of the Spring until they won the NESCAC first round against a deflated Bowdoin team when both of them weren't really playing for anything. Their recruiting has not been up to par with the top 3 in NESCAC, or even Bowdoin for that matter. They have been dependent on transfers, as 3 of their top 4 from last year's team did not begin their college careers in Hartford. I don't really know what to make of this program in 2011, but I'm predicting it will be a rough year for them. Their in-season match against Bowdoin is one of my matches to watch and a must-win for Trinity. Other matches to watch are the previously mentioned Redlands match, Brandeis, Bates and Pomona-Pitzer. This is certainly not a top 15 team this year and I think they are a long shot for the top 20. This team is slipping, but they have to be careful to not slip too far.

#13 Chicago @ #15 Kenyon Preview - Feb 11

2011-02-09T21:07:00.000-08:00

Kenyon's Paul Burgin

I thought I'd post this a few days ahead of time to let the fact that the season is finally here soak in. This is the first big match of the year and it has my #13 squaring off against #15 in a match where Chicago desperately needs a win. If you really take a look at the Maroons schedule, they are in huge trouble NCAA-wise if they don't win this match. And I mean huge trouble. The rest of the season, their only realistically winnable D3 matches that would count as quality wins are against DePauw, Wash U, and probably a crack at CMU in the UAA 3rd place match. If they lost this, even going 2 for 3 in those wouldn't guarantee them a spot. A win against Kenyon on the other hand, would probably put the Maroons in the top 12 and they may jump their NESCAC Pool C competitors in the rankings, with no matches in sight that would knock them out of the top 12. You know Chicago is going to bring a feisty attitude into Kenyon, and they will be very confident that they will leave with a win. The Maroons have been anything but impressive in the past few weeks, but none of that matters if they come out on top Friday night.

The other side of the coin is a young team who is trying to make a statement that they still belong in the conversation of best teams in the country. They put up a great effort in the Fall against Amherst and I'm sure coaches Thielke and Wilson have had their eye on this Friday for quite some time. Kenyon's home court advantage is one of the biggest in D3 and I expect them to come out firing in doubles to prove they aren't intimidated by Chicago. The Lords have history on their side and are 4-0 against Chicago since 2006. They aren't playing for as much, but with an inexperienced team, they certainly want to start well. They should go into this match with a nothing to lose attitude and know that they can win if they play well.

I expect Kenyon to get ahead in doubles. In the 4 matches they've played so far, Chicago is 0-4 at #1 doubles. Kenyon should take that spot and I would expect them to get either #2 or #3 to lead 2-1. The Maroons are the more talented team in singles, so I think a lot depends on how they play. I would expect Zhang to top Polster, and Chicago should win at #6, but the other 4 can really go either way. I think Kenyon has a slight edge with the more experienced Burgin at #2 and Ye at #5. This match should come down to 3 and 4 singles. Chicago really needs to play well to win and I'm going with Kenyon in a close 5-4 win that may come down to the last match. The Maroons have the potential to come in and absolutely dominate, and I think the rest of the country would take notice if they do. I'm also not sure if Chicago will come in with the same lineup they've been using, so that could potentially be a factor as well.

NOTE: If anyone is at the match and would e-mail me occasional score updates, I will post them on my Twitter to share with everyone.

2011 Team Preview #27: CMS

2011-02-09T20:24:00.000-08:00

Alex Johnson

Coach: Paul Settles, 8th Season
Location: Claremont, California
Conference: SCIAC
2008 Ranking: 3
2009 Ranking: 5
2010 Ranking: 3
2011 Projected: 2

Even with the graduations of 2 top players, I think this year's Stags team is significantly better than last year's team. Maybe it's because they have a year of development under their belt or maybe it's because of new additions Alex Lane and Zhenya Perezevin, but this team has all the tools to win a national title. The problem is that Emory and Amherst are in their way and they probably will have to beat those 2 on back-to-back days to win a national title. This team is as deep as anyone and as good as anyone, but I'm just not sure if this is their year to win it all. They don't have Pottish and Goodwin, or Trinity's doubles lineup, or Amherst's experience playing in the NCAA Final, and these types of things will hurt them against those opponents. They really have to be a team to win and while Lane will be an upgrade at #1, I don't think he will be so dominant that #1 becomes an automatic point against Cruz and Cal Lutheran. I don't know if anyone runs a better pure program than CMS. Their training, facilities and conditioning are top notch, but they get out-recruited by Emory and Amherst and this has been the difference for them the past couple years. It may have been good to lose the semifinal last year because they will come back hungrier and you can bet they will be ready to play during the Final 8 on their home courts. What they cannot do is look past their regular season and NCAA regional, and hopefully they learned that after nearly being swept in doubles by Cruz in last year's Sweet 16. The West is far from won, and they will have a ton of work to do to even get to play on their own courts for the Final 8, something they weren't able to do when they hosted in 2009. On paper, they really shouldn't lose in singles, as last year's #1 Robbie Erani is expected to be at the #3 spot, and they have returning starter Russell Brockett most likely at #5. I'm not a believer in their doubles yet, as they were a bit shaky during NCAAs and they can be beaten here by a team like Cruz who has the ability to raise their level in doubles. CMS plays a brutal schedule as always and it has worked out for them in the past. They take on 6 of the top 8 teams this year and the real test will be the quad in Texas when they have to play away from Claremont. The pressure builds with each passing year that they don't win a national title, but as I mentioned, they haven't been to 2 consecutive Elite 8s in quite a while, so that should be something they focus on in 2011. Once they get to the Elite 8, they will have to let adrenaline and the home crowd take them to the title, and a wealth of talent certainly doesn't hurt either.

2011 Team Preview #26: Denison

2011-02-09T19:51:00.000-08:00

Evan Verbofsky

Coach: Peter Burling, 21st Season
Location: Granville, Ohio
Conference: NCAC
2008 Ranking: 26
2009 Ranking: 25
2010 Ranking: NR
2011 Projected: 26

I don't have all that much to say about Denison and I don't know their team that well, but they deserve a preview after making it into my top 30. Denison fell off a little bit last year after finishing in the top 30 the previous 2 years, but more importantly their hated rival Kenyon has really been widening the gap in the NCAC and the Big Red haven't had a chance to qualify for the tournament. This is certainly the closest they have been to Kenyon talent-wise since 2007 and although Kenyon is still a heavy favorite to win the conference, Denison does have a shot at them this year. They are tricky to play at home on their fast indoor courts and they will have a chance to knock off a big time team this weekend when Chicago comes to town and may be suffering from a post-Kenyon hangover. Rhodes and Emory are both on their schedule and they also will get a crack at CMU and Mary Washington before the GLCA tournament where a likely match with Kalamazoo awaits. The Big Red has a good mix of experience and youth, but one of their problems is they don't have any individuals who stand out. I can't remember the last time Denison had someone qualify for NCAA singles and this has hurt them against better teams who can match their depth. This year's team will be anchored by senior Evan Verbofsky, junior Matt McErlean and junior Tyler Cempre, who took out Chicago's #1 Will Zhang in fall ITAs. To put it simply, this is a tricky team and I think several of their opponents may overlook them. They certainly are deserving of the #26 ranking I gave them and they may even find themselves in the top 20 sometime during the year. The main problem for Denison, and the only thing that matters, is they can't compete with Kenyon at the moment. They are getting out-recruited and out-developed by the Lords, and if they ever want to see the NCAA tournament again, they have to pick up their recruiting. Denison is a solid program and another victim of the NCAA selection process. I expect them to be ranked at the end of the season but it will all be fairly irrelevant because I think they will need a massive effort to topple the Lords in the conference tournament, especially with Kenyon knowing they probably won't qualify for the tournament themselves if they lose.

2011 Team Preview #25: NC Wesleyan

2011-02-08T20:05:00.000-08:00

Coach: Dominic Modise, 4th Season
Location: Rocky Mount, North Carolina
Conference: USA South
2008 Ranking: NR
2009 Ranking: 16
2010 Ranking: 9
2011 Projected: 11

NC Wesleyan has had a breakout 2 years, particularly last year when they made their way to the Elite 8. You would think at this point, everyone would know about them and their program would not remain mysterious to the majority of the nation. This is not the case though, and a large part of that is due to their player turnover, as they often don't retain their entire team from the previous year, but they are constantly bringing in new players. They lost their #1 from NCAAs last year in lefty Kalle Nikunen, but bring in 6 international freshmen, and I'm assuming a couple of them may have an impact on the starting lineup. We will get to see NCW early this season as they have qualified for the National Indoors and will take on Wash U. I'll get to this match and its significance a little later in the preview. One big thing stands out to me and it will define NC Wesleyan this year. Look at their doubles results against the last 4 ranked teams they played last season. They were down 2-1 to CNU, 2-1 to Vassar, 3-0 to Hopkins and 3-0 to Middlebury. They cannot get away with this type of doubles play and I'm sure their coaches will go back to the drawing board when it comes to doubles. I'm thinking this team will probably be as good as last year, and probably better. They get back Antti Saari who sat out NCAAs last year for unknown reasons, although he wouldn't have made a difference against Midd. He should solve some of their doubles problems and will put together an excellent top of the lineup along with returning starters Alexey Rumyantsev and Fred Lemongo. Rumyantsev ended last year as one of the best players in country and will be crucial to the Bishops' success this year. They have so many players, I don't know who else is going to be in the lineup. I can see NCW being as high as #4 and I doubt they will drop below #12. I definitely have them under-ranked at 11, I think they will finish higher than that. The Indoors 1st round is huge for NCW. I think they have a better chance of beating Wash U than the other 2 teams in the bottom half, so with a loss they could end up playing for 7th, but with a win they could easily finish 3rd and possibly make the final. They also have regular season matches against Mary Wash, Newport and Hopkins. The JHU match is on my matches to watch as a rematch of the epic 2010 Sweet 16 encounter. NCW should take care of business in their conference easily if they have a half decent bottom of the lineup. This team will have a great shot at another Elite 8, but they may have to beat Hopkins again to get there.

2011 Team Preview #24: Middlebury

2011-02-07T14:37:00.000-08:00

Andrew Peters

Coach: Bob Barr, 1st Season
Location: Middlebury, Vermont
Conference: NESCAC
2008 Ranking: 5
2009 Ranking: 5
2010 Ranking: 1
2011 Projected: 6

The defending national champions are back with a brand new look and a lot of question marks heading into this season. Their former coach Dave Schwarz made this team what it is, and he has now moved on to Brown. Last year's assistant coach Bob Barr takes over as interim head coach for this year. What Middlebury always has is talent, and there is certainly no shortage of that on this year's team. 5 of 6 starters from last year's team graduated, but Midd had a deep bench and brought in 3 new freshmen who should all see time in the lineup if they are healthy. They also have Andrew Peters, who went deep in the NCAA singles tournament last year and returns as one of the best singles players in the country. The senior will have to pull a lot of weight this year, especially with Sun improving and Amherst getting even better. Midd is a very young team, and the problem with freshman is typically that they take a while to adapt to college doubles. The Panthers always have serviceable singles players, but in the past doubles has been an issue. I think a lot will rest on Coach Barr's shoulders when it comes to developing his guys in doubles. A preseason rumor that I've heard is that Midd freshman Teddy Fitzgibbons is having ankle problems and his status for the season is unsure. He still has 6 weeks to heal and it would be huge for Midd if he could be a strong 2 or 3 this year to give Peters some support. Other notable players for Midd are freshmen Zach Bruchmiller and Brantner Jones, as well as returning player Alec Parower, who saw some time in the lineup last year. If Coach Barr can lead this team to a NESCAC title and a finish in the top 4, I would think his interim tag should be removed. He is obviously a very capable coach, but it's hard to follow in a great coach's footsteps. Midd has finished in the top 5 for 8 consecutive years, and if that streak has ever been in jeopardy before, it certainly is now. I know they have a great team, and I also know not the count them out for a repeat of the national championship. Great freshmen are always an unknown, and their freshmen can surprise everyone and all be top players. This team goes about their business, and maybe more than anyone at this point, puts fear into their opponents. They may not have as much talent as last year, but they are still named Middlebury, and that counts for something. Their NESCAC battles with Williams and Amherst are the biggest of the season along with a spring break match against CLU. I can see Midd finishing anywhere from 1 to 8 this year. A lot depends on their health, and even more depends on their new coach.

Division III Tennis

2012 Season Preview: 10 Matches to Watch

2012 Pre-Season Rankings

Top 10 Stories of 2012

Future of This Blog

Revisiting Top 10 Stories of 2011

Season Recap

Breaking Down the Final

My Picks

General Quarterfinal Discussion

Sweet 16 Results and Brief Thoughts

NCAA Updates

Regional Preview: Cruz

Regional Preview: Williams

Regional Preview: Washington & Lee

Regional Preview: Middlebury

Regional Preview: Wash U

Regional Preview: Kenyon

Regional Preview: Gustavus

Regional Preview: Amherst

NCAA Previews

Brackets Released

My Final Bracket Plus Explanation

Amherst Takes NESCAC

NESCAC Preview and Bracketology Update

NESCAC

Automatic Bids

Update On Past Weekend and NCAA Picture

Sorry

Update On...Things

Weekend Recap

Update

SFA Interview With Scott Thielke

Weekend Recap: April 7 - April 10

Update

Brief Weekend Preview

Bracketology Issue #1

Quick Friday Notes

Kenyon Withdraws From GLCA

Mid-Season Reports

Weekend Recap and the Next Few Days

Saturday Updates

Results Update/ITA Rankings

Recruiting Update and Thoughts on Coaching

Weekend Recap

Weekend Updates

California Controversy and Weekend Preview Part 2

Weekend Preview: San Antonio and Pittsburgh

Reviewing 4 Close Matches On Tue/Wed

Tuesday Results

NCW Tops Hopkins and Tuesday Preview

Weekend Recap, Matches I Missed and Monday Preview

Some Weekend Matches Cancelled

ITA Rankings - March 17

Wed/Thurs Recap, Fri-Sun Preview

Thursday

Scheduling Note

Tuesday Recap, Brief Wednesday Preview

A Wild Monday and Tuesday Thoughts

Thoughts on Other Saturday Results and Monday Preview

Stag-Hen Analysis

Stag-Hen Updates

Stag-Hen Invitational Discussion

Thoughts on the Next Few Days

Saturday Results

Weekend Ahead

CMS defeats Mary Wash 8-1 and ITA Rankings

Mary Wash's Rough Start and The Big Picture

Weekend Recap

Brief Weekend Preview Feb 25-27

2011 Team Preview #32: Amherst

Cal Lutheran's Nick Ballou Done for the Season

Indoors Is Over, Now What?

Indoors Review By Team

National Indoors Recap and Thoughts

National Indoors Preview: Full Tournament Predictions

National Indoors Preview: Quarterfinal #4: #5 UC Santa Cruz vs. #4 Trinity (TX)

National Indoors Preview: Quarterfinal #3: #7 Wash U vs. #11 NC Wesleyan

2011 Team Preview #31: Bowdoin

National Indoors Preview: Quarterfinal #2: #8 Cal Lutheran vs. #12 Carnegie Mellon