Weekend Preview: San Antonio and Pittsburgh

Wash U's Adam Putterman, courtesy ITA

19 important matches happening during easily the biggest weekend of the season. I'm going to split it up into 2 different previews and tonight I'll be discussing 4 teams meeting in San Antonio and 3 teams meeting in Pittsburgh.

San Antonio Schedule (All Times Eastern)

Current National Rankings: #4 CMS, #5 Wash U, #6 Cruz, #11 Trinity (TX)

Friday: 11AM, Wash U vs. UC Santa Cruz, 330PM CMS @ Trinity (TX)
Saturday: 11AM CMS vs. Cruz, 3PM Wash U @ Trinity (TX)
Sunday: 11AM Wash U vs. CMS, 1230PM Cruz @ Trinity (TX)

A huge weekend that all of these teams had circled on their calendar as soon as the schedule was made. The home team currently has the lowest national ranking, but that can all be thrown out the window at this point because Trinity has a significant home court advantage on outdoor courts that are probably faster than their opponents are accustomed to. Blog readers like the Stags to go undefeated this weekend, but I'm not so sure about that. I don't even want to try to predict each of these matches, but I will say that I don't expect anyone to come away winless. CMS has the best chance of emerging unbeaten, but I know Trinity isn't going to just lie down because they had a rocky start to the season. 2 of the 6 matches will be rematches from Indoors, both involving Cruz, so I'll be interested to see how those results change since 6 weeks ago. Last time Trinity hosted this in 2008, Williams, Wash U and CMS came to San Antonio. If I'm not mistaken, all 4 teams were top 8 in the country at the time. CMS ended up going 0-3 and no one came away undefeated with Trinity, Williams and Wash U all going 2-1. WU went on to win the national title and CMS finished 3rd. I don't expect a repeat of that, but it's important to remember that it's hard to be in top form 3 days in a row, and when you are playing tough opponents like this, getting up for matches and preparation play a huge role that can't accurately be measured. Coach McMindes is well aware that his team needs to make a statement this weekend and I expect them to do it. They had a rocky start to the season as expected, but it's time for them to turn it on. CMS wants to establish themselves as a front runner in the national title race and they also want to make sure that they host the NCAA West regional. The CMS-Cruz match is a highlight of every season and should be fantastic. Cruz comes in not having been really tested in a while, but they typically improve throughout a season very quickly. Cruz is dangerous as always this weekend and they are putting their 8 match winning streak against Trinity on the line. Cruz lost to Wash U at Indoors and lost to CMS twice last year, so I think the Slugs have something to prove against both of those opponents. To me, Wash U is the real wildcard here. They win with doubles and depth, a combo that worked for them at Indoors. They are a high energy team who is very fit and will surely be in top shape all 3 days. I know I picked them 7th in preseason, but the way they played at Indoors they are very tough to beat. I expect 6 great matches and a lot of drama in what really is a simulation of the 3 day stretch that is the NCAA Final Rounds.

Pittsburgh Schedule (All Times Eastern)

Current National Rankings: #8 Carnegie Mellon, #25 Mary Washington

Friday: 4PM Denison @ Carnegie Mellon
Saturday: 12PM Denison vs. Mary Washington
Sunday: 11AM Mary Washington @ Carnegie Mellon

Live Stats

CMU is the favorite to dominate this weekend and they have traditionally been very tough at home over the past few seasons. They haven't seen D3 action in a couple weeks and I think they also realize that these are must-wins. They're ranked 8th in the country, but they do have a 1-3 record against ranked D3 teams this year. Granted their losses are to #3, #6 and #7, but they are lacking in the wins category. These matches would really help, because after all, they are competing for a Pool C spot. Sitting in the top 10, it's hard to foresee the fact that it's possible you don't make the tournament at all. CMU has pretty much no margin for error and although they have a long way to go, they can't slip up, especially this weekend. I don't want to get into specific NCAA scenarios, but a loss here may drop them back to 17th or 18th in the national rankings, which is something they absolutely cannot afford. That being said, this is a really good team that had Cruz on the ropes and beat a full strength CLU squad. They are 8 in the country for a reason and I expect them to show that this weekend. They play a Denison squad who is coming off a 7-2 loss against 26th ranked Rhodes, but remember that Denison was points away from beating Chicago only 7 weeks ago. Denison can play solid doubles and if CMU doesn't come prepared, they can get in trouble quickly and not be able to escape with a win. The Tartans have to respect these opponents despite their rankings and recent results. I've said plenty about Mary Wash these past few weeks and they are coming off a 7-2 loss to 23rd ranked Bates, but the fact that they look good on paper hasn't changed. This remains a talented team and the past 3 years they have played some very tight matches against Carnegie. CMU's 8th ranked team only beat #22 Mary Wash 5-4 last year, so this is another danger match for the home team. The Saturday match just serves as a confidence booster as Denison looks to improve for their upcoming shot against conference rival Kenyon, and UMW looks to move toward extending their conference streak to 13 consecutive titles. The bottom line is if CMU shows up this weekend, they will take care of business, but that is much easier said than done.

Weekend Recap, Matches I Missed and Monday Preview

It was a shame that matches in Santa Cruz were canceled today, but there was still a lot of action over the weekend including a few matches I completely missed that didn't make it on the calendar. I apologize for those omissions and I'll touch on those results in this post. On Friday, Skidmore continued their mediocre play in California in a 6-3 loss to Redlands. I don't think the Thoroughbreds are top 20 material this year, especially given the scores in the bottom of the lineup against Redlands. Skidmore will look to improve when they return home. A much needed win for the Bulldogs and they have some very important matches coming up against Trinity (CT) and Williams before they get into SCIAC play. They know they have to make a splash soon and I expect them to raise their level. The other match on Friday had Mary Washington losing at home against Bates 7-2. The Eagles have 2 different personalities this season and it seems like they don't show up half the time. They beat Cal Lu, got crushed by an unranked Whittier, beat Washington & Lee and now lose badly to Bates. Mary Wash is in what amounts to a 3 year slump because on paper they should be top 20 and they are nowhere close to it. They have very little in the way of quality wins recently and I definitely see another 1st round exit in NCAAs in the near future.

On Saturday, two matches that weren't on the calendar took place with Mary Wash rebounding to beat Swarthmore and Emory taking down DePauw 7-2. A decent result for the Tigers as they hung at a few spots. One thing that concerns me is Emory's #2 doubles team. They beat CMS and have followed it up with losses to Denison and DePauw. I know Emory wants to keep their Pottish/Egan duo at 3, but to do that they need a decent 2 team. Also on Saturday, Pomona-Pitzer defeated Skidmore 7-2 in a routine victory. The Hens continue to roll. One of my matches to watch highlighted the weekend as CMS took on national title favorite Amherst. The Jeffs had been rolling the entire week, but as I said previously, they have struggled in the regular season the past 2 years. CMS stepped up and won this match somewhat comfortably. Alex Lane was the real difference maker as he got 2 huge victories for CMS. If I'm Amherst, there is nothing to be concerned about. I use this as motivation that the team still needs to improve. The Stags rebounded well after the Emory loss as they had to get a lot of their confidence back. I know Midd is 1, but I think even they know they don't belong there. I have no problem with them staying there due to last season, but they will have to beat Amherst eventually to keep that ranking. All of this leaves Emory as the team to beat in D3 right now. I see them going into NCAAs as the top seed. They have tests against Hopkins and Chicago, but the only match I could actually see them losing is a UAA final against Wash U if they get swept in doubles. CMS needs to refocus because they have 3 huge matches coming up in Texas this weekend. If this shows us anything, it's that no team stands out among the top teams and I think it's a 3 horse race for the national title.

Today was fairly uneventful, but I was impressed by Hopkins absolute destruction of Bates. The Bobcats are a solid team and Hopkins lost 10 total games in the bottom 4 singles spots. A remarkable performance heading into a huge Monday clash with NC Wesleyan. I was also disappointed in this effort by Bates because Hopkins is an excellent team, but they aren't Emory or CMS. This team went from beating UMW 7-2 to losing to JHU 8-1 and I think the gap between those 2 teams is large, but not that large. Also today, Swarthmore upset Christopher Newport 5-4 in a drama-filled contest. Not a good loss for the Captains as they need to close the gap with NCW and this doesn't help. An excellent win for Swat, who I still feel should be ranked in the next poll.

We've got a very big week ahead, but let's focus on tomorrow for the moment. 3 matches on the calendar, only 1 of which I consider significant. To begin, Bates continues their road trip and takes on a Kalamazoo team that's an absolute disaster right now. I see a routine win for the Bobcats and it should be a nice confidence boost after a rough day today. Cruz and Trinity (CT) will try to squeeze their match in with bad weather in the area. I could be wrong, but I think Trinity is pretty weak this year, so they may have benefited the most from the match cancellations avoiding matches against both Bowdoin and Cal Lu. The Bantams still sit at 14 in the country from last year's results. Bowdoin and Cal Lu would be 2 matches I'd expect them to lose. We'll see how they do against Cruz, but I project an easy win for the Slugs. The biggest match of the day, and one of my 10 matches to watch is a rematch of last year's epic Sweet 16 match between Johns Hopkins and NC Wesleyan. For those who don't know, Hopkins was at home in NCAAs last year and swept doubles before NCW stormed back and won all 6 first sets in an eventual 5-3 win that came down to the wire. I'm sure that's still fresh on the minds of Hopkins coaches and players, so they should desperately want some revenge, especially playing on the road this time. NCW didn't have the start they wanted at Indoors and this is one of their very few matches against a highly ranked team this season. If they don't win this, I don't see them breaking the top 10 during the regular season. Both teams should be incredibly fired up in what I expect will be an amazing match. I'm going to refrain from making a prediction because I really don't know.

I'll be back Monday night with a recap of the Hopkins-NCW match and a Tuesday preview.

Wed/Thurs Recap, Fri-Sun Preview

Justin Wilson, Cal Lutheran

I want to go over the results from the past 2 days and preview a very big weekend. The first half of the week was full of big matches and although Wed/Thurs matches didn't have the significance of Monday and Tuesday, they certainly weren't short on drama. Today, there were 2 matches which I didn't expect to be all that competitive. I'll discuss CMS-Skidmore and CLU-Amherst a little later.

First on Wednesday, Redlands lost to Amherst 8-1 as expected. Another dominant performance by Amherst, cruising in doubles and not dropping a set in the 5 singles matches they won. They continue to play Chafetz at 4, which I guess we will see for the remainder of the season. Redlands just isn't competitive with the top teams. ITA Rankings came out today (I'll have a separate post) and Redlands is sitting at 8th in Pool C. That means they have to go out and beat someone, they can't just sit back and go through the motions. Granted, they've lost to Cruz, Amherst and Emory, but I haven't seen anything from them that implies they are better than last year. They've got to make a move sooner or later and it may not be against Pomona-Pitzer the way the Hens are playing. The other 2 matches Wednesday both came down to the wire and were tied 4-4. The early match pitted Bowdoin against a Skidmore team who I expect a lot from this year. One thing for Skidmore is they were missing one of their star freshmen, Jimmy Sherpa, and without him they will struggle against a team as good as Bowdoin. I'm not sure where he is, but Skidmore isn't deep enough to be a top 20 team without him. Hats off to Bowdoin, who proved me wrong about not being able to come from behind after doubles. Skidmore jumped out to an early lead, but Bowdoin really dominated the 4 spots they won in singles. Sullivan has lived up to his preseason All-American status and he has been the rock for Bowdoin this week in singles, starting his spring season 4-0 at the #1 position. Given the new ITA rankings, Bowdoin currently sits at #7 in Pool C, but they have an opportunity to play the #6 team, Trinity (CT), this weekend. Bowdoin has done what they needed to do so far and they are in a good spot.

Unbelievable heart and resiliency by Cal Lutheran. They could have folded after Indoors and an injury to their top player, but they didn't. Since Ballou has had surgery, they've beaten Tyler and Whitman and played 5-4 against Kenyon. Along with Paul Burgin, Justin Wilson is the biggest surprise for me this season for an individual. He's playing at a very high level right now and has been rock solid for this team. This is Cal Lu's 4th match that has been tied at 4-4 this year and it's the first one they won. I am impressed that they are doing what they're doing and I think they are going to keep it up. They have more shots against ranked teams and they can sneak their way back into Pool C. If they pull some upsets and get confident, watch out for them. I have a feeling they are going to make more noise this year. What a roller coaster season for the Kingsmen, but they have to be pleased with themselves. Whitman had a decent trip. They got the big win they needed and Coach Northam praised his team for their fight, but the bottom line is they are still ranked 20th in the country. I know it's bad to get caught up in rankings, but they don't lie. They saw the prize after that Trinity match, but couldn't get the job done against a team who I consider inferior to them, and then followed it up by not showing up at 2 of the doubles spots. I think they were physically beaten up by the end of the trip and there are a lot of positives to take from the past week, but the bottom line is they still have a lot of work to do to be able to compete with the top 15 teams on a consistent basis. I see it as though they are losing matches they shouldn't be losing, but they did get their big win and may go home satisfied.

I don't have much to say about today's matches. CMS put their full lineup out which I found a bit surprising, but after the Emory match and with Amherst coming up, I guess Coach Settles decided that his guys could use the practice. Pretty routine victory for CMS, they've certainly asserted their dominance over the lower ranked teams. Cal Lu put up a good fight but was beaten by a more talented team. A good experience for the Kingsmen, and they did pretty well I thought. Amherst is just rolling and we'll see how they do this weekend.

Friday through Sunday should be nothing short of fantastic. Tomorrow, we've got 2 evenly matched contests. On the East coast, Bates takes another spring trip and they will play Mary Wash tomorrow. Bates was ranked 23rd today and Mary Wash was 25th. The Eagles played a solid match at home against W&L last weekend, so we will see how they do in this. They are probably slightly overmatched at the top of the lineup, but have more depth, so this should be a good contrast of styles. I like Mary Wash in a close one, because I trust them at home, I just don't know if they can get it done on the road. Bates is officially done from Pool C if they lose. The other match tomorrow is an absolute must win for Redlands. The pressure is squarely on them against a lower ranked Skidmore team and throw in the fact that Redlands is playing for their tournament life. With Bowdoin's win over Skidmore, Redlands desperately needs this, and it would help to win in convincing fashion. Skidmore is playing their 3rd ranked team in as many days, so they could be a little tired. This would probably be the biggest win in the history of Skidmore tennis if they could pull it off, but I expect Redlands to be too tough on their home courts. The Bulldogs win and keep their NCAA hopes alive.

Saturday Skidmore plays again at Pomona-Pitzer, and judging by the past weeks results, I don't expect it to be too competitive. PP is at a very high level right now and Skidmore may be a bit down on themselves, especially if they lose to Redlands Friday. Again, it would be a huge win for Skidmore, I just don't know if they can do it. The second match pits Bowdoin against Cal Lutheran in a match that is crucial to both teams Pool C chances. Cal Lu has been so tough at home the past month and Bowdoin will have been in California for a week, so fitness could start to become a factor. This is Cal Lu's chance to get back into the Pool C hunt, and the way they've been playing, I certainly think they can win. The Kingsmen probably need to get ahead in doubles because of their depth issues, but if they do that, it's anyone's match. The main event this weekend is obviously Amherst at CMS. The Stags are looking to rebound from last weekend's poor performance against Emory and Amherst is trying to establish themselves as the dominant team in the nation. Midd still stands at 1, but this match should have implications as to who is #1 in the country late in the season. I believe having the #1 overall seed in NCAAs is huge, because when you take the big 3 this year, whoever isn't #1 will have to win brutally tough matches on back to back days, whereas #1 will have an easier team with whoever ends up being #4. This match is tough to predict. I like CMS to step up after a tough loss to Emory, but the question is if Amherst is just too talented. CMS obviously has to play better doubles than they did, and I still don't have a status report on the whereabouts of Robbie Erani. He could potentially make a big difference and allow CMS to better compete deep in the lineup. Lane or Johnson will need to pull off a huge win, but at the moment I just can't pick against Amherst as I expect the Jeffs to pull out a tough win.

Sunday brings double duty for both Cal Lutheran and Trinity (CT), as the Bantams play both Bowdoin and Cal Lu, and the Kingsmen also play Santa Cruz. The Bowdoin-Trinity match was one of my matches to watch because it is a huge rivalry and huge for Pool C. Again, Cal Lu will have a chance to get another win on their resume and they have to keep their heads held high even if they get crushed by Cruz. The Slugs match up well against the Kingsmen, so I don't foresee too much trouble for Cruz playing at home in that match. So we've got CLU-Cruz, CLU-TrinityCT and Bowdoin-TrinityCT all taking place in Santa Cruz, California on Sunday. In Baltimore, Hopkins takes on Bates in what will be JHU's biggest test of the year to date. Hopkins will have too much depth and too much talent, but their top guys will be tested.

Stag-Hen Analysis

Colin Egan, Emory

Vassar - A bit disappointed in their performance, but my conclusion is they just aren't that good this year. They are probably slightly weaker than last year's team who finished 28, so I just don't see them as top 30 material. They probably can beat Skidmore on a good day, but it will take a lot of work to get there. I really expect John Cox to instill a winning attitude in this program, but great things don't happen overnight.

Swarthmore - Not too much to say, but I'm happy to see them get a win on a big stage. They're still a decent team and after seeing them give Whitman a hard time and beat Vassar, they may be in the 30-40 range of teams this year. That's probably an improvement over the past 3 years which is a step in the right direction.

Trinity (TX) - I don't really know what to say. Trinity was beaten up with illness this weekend; I get that, but this morning was not good. I can understand a loss to P-P, especially given how the Hens did in their next 2 matches. Trinity is almost on Chicago's level when it comes to underachieving at the moment. In their defense, their California trip last year was a trainwreck and they ended up just fine at the end of the season, but they have to remember that there are only so many chances. They still have Amherst and Bowdoin on this trip and those are far from walks in the park. The point of doing well in the regular season is to give yourself an easy region in NCAAs (unless you're in California), or make NCAAs period. I can see Trinity losing to Bowdoin and Amherst, losing all 3 matches in their quad and then losing the conference final to DePauw on some fluke day. That means they probably miss the tournament. I picked this team 4th in the country pre-season, and the way they played the first month of the season, they're not even top 10. The talent is there, I don't doubt that, but they aren't where they need to be mentally or on the court. I still think they are extremely dangerous, potentially near the level of the top 3, if they put it all together. But me saying that and them actually doing it are 2 very different things.

Whitman - Not a good start for Whitman, but they got their big win against Trinity. To begin, the Kenyon match was closer than its 8-1 score, but Kenyon was better in tight situations, and I attribute that to the first month of the season. The Lords had another gear to go to and Whitman did not because the bottom line is warm up matches against teams in the NWC don't get you used to the level needed to beat a team like Kenyon. Whitman is obviously limited geographically and scheduling wise, but by the time they got into the groove of this tournament, look what they were able to do. This team reminds me a lot of DePauw; very hard working, plays good doubles and doesn't have a lot of flashy stars. Basically, a team like P-P who can be a thorn in Trinity's side because they have the doubles and depth to keep up with the Tigers as well as a great attitude on court. I've been on Whitman about beating a higher ranked team and they did it. They deserve this win and they'll be rewarded for it ranking wise. Depending on how results play out the next few days, Whitman will be top 15 in Thursday's rankings with top 12 also a possibility and #10 not out of the question. Even though they slipped in the match they were preparing for, they showed a ton of resiliency and for that they deserve a lot of respect. They may not be the most talented bunch but their hearts are as big as anyone.

Pomona-Pitzer - Emory won the tournament, but to me, the Hens were the top story this weekend. This is an experienced team that is well coached and I feel like Belletto's first several years as head coach have all lead to this year. He's taken what he has and made the most of it, and for that, this program deserves praise. I was on PP about not being able to get a big win, and they finally showed that they are the real deal. The most impressive thing is that they didn't go away after their Trinity win. They took more points from Emory than CMS did, and even though they lost the Kenyon match, they made a statement that they are a serious Pool C contender and a potential top 10 finisher this year. They are in great position to make the tournament now and will really have to mess up to not get a Pool C bid, especially if Trinity gets some wins later in the season. I was so impressed with this team this weekend and if they continue to get better, there's no reason they can't give CMS and Cruz a hard time. It's unfortunate they may not make it out of the California regional, but given how far this team has come, just making it should be a big accomplishment. I expect to see them top 10 in the next rankings.

Kenyon - The Lords continue to play top notch tennis and showed great mental toughness dominating Whitman in doubles and coming back from a 4-2 deficit against PP. Remember that this team lost 4 starters from a team that finished 12th last year and now they look like a solid top 10 contender. If that's not enough warrant for coaching staff of the year awards, I don't know what is. I am continually impressed by the 2011 Lords. I keep expecting them to slip and it doesn't happen. Interestingly enough, they are through the difficult part of their schedule and that means they have pretty much locked up a top seed in their NCAA regional. Given that they beat Denison, the only tough thing remaining is GLCAs where they see Case or Denison in the semis and then CMU or DePauw likely in the final. They've weathered the storm and done what they needed to do, and I can't say enough about how impressed I am that they successfully patched up the holes left by last year's graduating class. A fantastic tournament for Kenyon and I really am a believer in this team now.

CMS - I blame it on a bit of overconfidence. They absolutely crushed the #7 ranked team in the country and watched Emory struggling against a Pomona-Pitzer team that the Stags crush year after year. The Stag faithful will make the excuse that Robbie Erani didn't play (I'm assuming he's injured), but the bottom line is he wouldn't have won that match for CMS. As tough as CMS is and as much depth as they have, they were significantly weaker than Emory mentally. They didn't get outplayed or outcoached, they just didn't come through in the clutch. The good news is that's a fixable problem and it comes with experience. Playing NAIA teams is not the same as playing D3 matches, so in reality this was a great test for CMS to see where they stand and they will be ready for Amherst next weekend. It may have been good for them to get a wake up call like this, because they had been cruising so far this season. They get into the real heart of their schedule now, but they know they aren't the best team in the country. They train hard, but they need to do some re-evaluation if they want to win a national title. The talent is there and the match was closer than the 7-2 result, but they lost pretty badly in a match I know they expected to win.

Emory - The moment NCAAs ended last year, I was on the Emory bandwagon for the 2011 Eagles because I know the quarterfinals of NCAAs is not an acceptable result for this program. We haven't seen Herst yet, but Emory is the team to beat right now and has cemented themselves as #2 in the country and potentially #1. The Eagles came through where I thought they were vulnerable and I think it's great that they don't just count on their top guys to win matches. It was probably good for them to be pushed in that semi because it showed them that they need to play better doubles, and that's exactly what they did. Emory has designed their doubles lineup so their 3 team is a sort of insurance so that they don't get swept. They got a quick point in the final and took the pressure off the other 2 teams. I have absolutely no criticism of this team right now because I think they are not only talented, they have finally become focused and humble and are no longer the loud-mouth team that everyone used to hate. They will continue to be tested throughout the season and that's good for them, because I know how badly they want the national title back after a 4 year dry spell topped off by a particularly bitter defeat in 2010.

Stag-Hen Invitational Discussion

Alex Lane, CMS

After a year hiatus, the Stag-Hen Invitational is back for a 4th year. The field is always strong for this tournament and this year is no exception. 4 of the current Top 10 teams in the country will be competing along with 2 others also in the top 20. For those of you unfamiliar, CMS and Pomona-Pitzer co-host this event, as their courts are within walking distance of each other. They do a wonderful job with the event and it's a great opportunity for all participants to play in a beautiful location and play teams they normally wouldn't see. Let's take a look at this year's field.

CMS vs. Swarthmore
Kenyon vs. Whitman
Trinity (TX) vs. Pomona-Pitzer
Emory vs. Vassar

There are storylines involving every team competing and it's a lot of potential information to digest. Everyone has their eyes on a potential CMS-Emory final, but they both have a lot of work to do to get there. First, I'll discuss the bottom 2 seeds. Swarthmore is a program that is lost right now. It seems like a long time ago, but they qualified for Indoors as recently as 2007. After that, we haven't heard from them. The Garnet are in danger of dropping down to 4th in their conference this year with F&M and Haverford being solid programs. It's unfortunate to see the sudden downfall of a team that was once top notch, but they just aren't recruiting at a high enough level to keep up. With the academic draw of the school, one would think they should be a contender for the top 20 in the country. This isn't the case though and they are a heavy favorite to finish 8th in the tournament. With a little bit of restructuring and some good recruiting, Swarthmore could be back on the map as a national power, just like Amherst did a few years ago. For now, I see them getting crushed 3 times this weekend. Vassar may have a shot at winning 2 matches, but it's unlikely with the strength of the other 3 teams in the bottom half. I've talked about the Brewers a fair amount, and they are trying to establish themselves as a team that is ranked consistently. This is a good opportunity for them to get exposure against some teams outside of New England, but I think it's pretty clear they are 7th best team in this tournament.

The 3 through 6 teams may be a lot closer in ability than meets the eye. The other 2 matches highlight the first round and I would not be at all surprised if 1 of them ended in an upset. First, the co-host Pomona-Pitzer takes on Trinity (TX) in a match where both teams have something to prove. Trinity did not have a very good California swing last year so they are looking for some redemption and trying to prove that they are a top 5 team. Losing this match would not help that cause. As I've said, Trinity peaks late in the season, but I'm sure the Tigers feel they should finish at least 3rd in this tournament. PP is trying to finally break through and become a top 15 team so they can qualify for NCAAs. I don't think 2 SCIAC teams get Pool C bids this year, so therefore it's either the Hens or Redlands. PP is playing at home and with a lot of confidence right now, and if you look at the rest of their schedule, this is one of their best chances for an upset. PP can't come out nervous because I believe doubles is the strength of both teams. If the Tigers come out firing, they have the potential to break PP's spirit and walk away with an easy win. I expect an emotional, grinding match that results in a Trinity win. Pomona-Pitzer still doesn't have that signature win over the past couple years and because of that, I can't pick them against a team of this caliber. I think this will be the best quarterfinal.

In the 4-5 match, we have surprising Kenyon against Whitman. As far as what each team is trying to prove, see the previous paragraph. So far, I don't know if anyone not from Kenyon would have expected the Lords to be sitting at #7 in the country. They have played great tennis, and have certainly proved me wrong about their preseason ranking of 15. They are the favorite in this match and have been rock solid so far this season, but anything can happen. Similar to PP, Whitman is a team looking for a breakthrough. I often get on WC about how they falter against higher ranked teams. Although these 2 have several ranking spots between them, I think they have similar strengths and I expect a good match. A Whitman win could really throw the rankings into a tailspin since Kenyon stands at #7. Whitman has been looking for their ticket out of the California regional, and this may very well be their only opportunity to do that this season. If they win this match, they probably find themselves in the top 10 in the country and may head home with only their conference matches left to play. It's a big opportunity, but they have to really want it and rise to the occasion. These 2 played in the SH first round several years ago with Kenyon winning and beating CMS in the next round. I don't expect a repeat of that, but I do expect Kenyon to win a fairly comfortable 6-3. If they play the way they played against CMU and Chicago, winning will take care of itself.

The structure of this tournament has the semifinals on Friday afternoon directly after the quarters. As if CMS and Emory needed an advantage. Not only are they the better teams, but they will have much easier quarterfinals than their opponents. I don't foresee CMS having any problem with either Kenyon or Whitman, and I think at worst they come away with a 6-3 win. They may use their depth and rest some of their starters in the morning match. The bottom half semifinal could be a little trickier for Emory. When I say I thought Trinity had the best doubles lineup in the country, I didn't just make it up. They didn't play well at Indoors, but everyone, including Browning and his team, know that the Tigers are dangerous. The Trinity team crushed the Emory team in the fall and Trinity also has the best 2 team in the country. Emory is vulnerable in doubles as Wash U showed in Indoors and even though a Pottish/Egan combo looks great on paper, Trinity may be just as good at 3. The bottom line is the Tigers need a doubles sweep to win. Fitness will be an issue and because of that, I like Emory to win 6-3. Trinity matches up well with the Eagles and can win, but they'd need a massive effort from the bottom of their singles lineup and in doubles.

In the final round, I expect Whitman and Pomona-Pitzer for 5th, Trinity and Kenyon for 3rd and Emory and CMS for the title. In the 5th place match, this is more important for PP than it is for Whitman. PP is competing for a Pool C bid and this is not a match they can afford to lose because it would be a dagger in the heart to their tournament chances. Whitman won a hard fought match last year so PP is looking for some revenge, but it may come down to who is less deflated after losing a winnable 1st round match. I like Pomona on their home courts, but I expect a very close result. The Hens will realize that they need it more and by the 3rd match of the tournament I don't think either team will be nervous or anxious. Again, this would be a nice win for Whitman, but it is absolutely crucial for PP. The 3rd place match is a no brainer on paper. These 2 met in last year's Sweet 16 with Trinity winning 5-2. Trinity has their whole team back and Kenyon lost 4 starters. However, as I've said, Kenyon is playing at a much higher level than anyone expected so I expect them to give the Tigers a very hard time. I think Trinity will have a bit too much, but conditioning could play a role. Kenyon may not spend a ton of energy in a loss to CMS, but Trinity could have a long one with Emory. I like the Tigers to win 5-4 or 6-3, but I've underestimated Kenyon this whole season and I'm aware I may be doing it again.

The probable final and biggest match of the season to this point should be Emory and CMS. It's interesting that all 3 of the top teams in the country come into this year with a chip on their shoulder. Amherst got crushed in 2 consecutive national finals, Emory blew a 3-0 lead in last year's NCAA quarters and CMS blew 7 match points to send them to the national final. All of these teams are hungry to prove something and I think they are all very focused. These 2 have contrasting styles as Emory possesses an amazing top of the lineup and CMS has unmatched depth. I am sure that Alex Lane is a great player, but I can't pick against Pottish at the moment. I don't think CMS has anyone who can compete with Chris Goodwin at #2 and that forces CMS to win 5 of the 7 remaining matches. For the Stags to win, I think they may need a doubles sweep. Colin Egan is a clutch #3 and the Eagles have a hidden gem in Nick Szczurek who may be one of the best 4s in the country. I see Emory potentially taking the top 4 spots. If they can put a point on the board in doubles, I really like Emory's chances in this. That being said, Wash U showed that Emory is quite vulnerable in doubles, and with CMS playing on their home courts, a doubles sweep is very possible. The Stags should have the edge at the bottom of the lineup, but I'm picking Emory 5-4 in this match. I believe Browning has his guys very focused and fit after last year's disappointment, and it's just too tough to deal with the top 2 players in the country. CMS can win this match, but I'm impressed with the top two thirds of Emory's lineup and I think it's enough to get them a win on the road.

CMS defeats Mary Wash 8-1 and ITA Rankings

CMS beat Mary Washington 8-1 with about 1/2 of their normal lineup. The Eagles will finish in California taking on Redlands Saturday in what's pretty much a must win for the Bulldogs after Mary Wash left the top 25.

New ITA rankings out today and obviously I think one thing stands out. Rankings are just about perfect in my opinion, however I don't know how Cal Lutheran managed to stay at #12 after a loss to Mary Washington, who currently stands at #27. I'd be very interested to hear the logic behind this. Also, W&L took out Salisbury 8-1 but the Gulls are still 23rd and W&L is 29. Not too much else to discuss as a few teams swapped spots, but nothing too much happened since the fall. I think a lot more will be reflected in the next rankings.

CMS Wins, Trinity (TX) & Wash U Compete In Pre-Indoors Matches

CMS d. Westmont 6-3

CMS is impressive. This is a team they lost to 5-4 last year and they turned the tables playing what seems to be only 4 or their 6 normal starters in singles. I would think that Erani and Perezevin would make their way into the singles lineup rather than Ellis and Wu. On the other hand, I would assume this is their full time doubles lineup, and this is where they struggled. The Stags are not untouchable in doubles, and they now know what they need to work on before their difficult stretch in March. Seeing how good their singles lineup is really makes me think that there is a huge gap between the top 3 teams in D3 and everyone else, but out of those top 3, CMS and Emory may be a lot closer to Amherst than I originally thought.

St. Edward's d. Trinity (TX) 5-4

Not quite sure why Trinity (TX) didn't play their full lineup in their season opener against Abilene Christian, but they were full strength in this one. As usual, Trinity got on top in doubles and struggled in singles. Frey lost to a player who he beat the previous year, but the most surprising thing was to see Cocanougher at #3 singles. I'm thinking there could be an injury in play here, as Bobby sat out the first match in both singles and doubles, and now is back at the 3 spot. It's not often that you see an ITA champion playing 3 for his team, but I certainly would not consider it a stack in this instance. It just goes to show to that the Tigers players are very even. On a final note, I would be surprised to see Trinity bench Murray in singles at Indoors in favor of 2 freshmen. Murray has played in big matches and I think you have to go with experience especially when you are dealing with inexperienced players from Cruz.

Wash U d. Southern Indiana 5-4

The Bears were not rock solid in this, but they often don't bring their best stuff for these warm up matches. I have no doubt Wash U will be ready for Indoors next week, but I think this match is a perfect example of what I meant when I said they aren't as good as last year. It's interesting that they were able to take 2 of 3 doubles from a strong Drury team, but dropped 2 of 3 to a team outside the top 30 in D2. While Wash U was certainly not in top form last night, one thing that I can guarantee is that they will be on top form on Friday. A good performance from the top of the lineup by Wash U and this is something that they will need all season. This may be an alarming result to see the Bears struggle, but knowing this team and their coach, they will be more than prepared for Indoors.

2011 Team Preview #27: CMS

Alex Johnson

Coach: Paul Settles, 8th Season
Location: Claremont, California
Conference: SCIAC
2008 Ranking: 3
2009 Ranking: 5
2010 Ranking: 3
2011 Projected: 2

Even with the graduations of 2 top players, I think this year's Stags team is significantly better than last year's team. Maybe it's because they have a year of development under their belt or maybe it's because of new additions Alex Lane and Zhenya Perezevin, but this team has all the tools to win a national title. The problem is that Emory and Amherst are in their way and they probably will have to beat those 2 on back-to-back days to win a national title. This team is as deep as anyone and as good as anyone, but I'm just not sure if this is their year to win it all. They don't have Pottish and Goodwin, or Trinity's doubles lineup, or Amherst's experience playing in the NCAA Final, and these types of things will hurt them against those opponents. They really have to be a team to win and while Lane will be an upgrade at #1, I don't think he will be so dominant that #1 becomes an automatic point against Cruz and Cal Lutheran. I don't know if anyone runs a better pure program than CMS. Their training, facilities and conditioning are top notch, but they get out-recruited by Emory and Amherst and this has been the difference for them the past couple years. It may have been good to lose the semifinal last year because they will come back hungrier and you can bet they will be ready to play during the Final 8 on their home courts. What they cannot do is look past their regular season and NCAA regional, and hopefully they learned that after nearly being swept in doubles by Cruz in last year's Sweet 16. The West is far from won, and they will have a ton of work to do to even get to play on their own courts for the Final 8, something they weren't able to do when they hosted in 2009. On paper, they really shouldn't lose in singles, as last year's #1 Robbie Erani is expected to be at the #3 spot, and they have returning starter Russell Brockett most likely at #5. I'm not a believer in their doubles yet, as they were a bit shaky during NCAAs and they can be beaten here by a team like Cruz who has the ability to raise their level in doubles. CMS plays a brutal schedule as always and it has worked out for them in the past. They take on 6 of the top 8 teams this year and the real test will be the quad in Texas when they have to play away from Claremont. The pressure builds with each passing year that they don't win a national title, but as I mentioned, they haven't been to 2 consecutive Elite 8s in quite a while, so that should be something they focus on in 2011. Once they get to the Elite 8, they will have to let adrenaline and the home crowd take them to the title, and a wealth of talent certainly doesn't hurt either.

CMS Adds Alex Lane

The Stags have added Alex Lane for this spring. Lane is transferring from Azusa Pacific University, where he played #3 singles and #3 doubles last year for the NAIA powerhouse. He is a native of Claremont, California and played Futures tournaments for a couple years after completing high school, therefore making him a 24 year old sophomore. I expect Lane to certainly be in the Stags top 3 this year, most likely at the #1 spot. This is a huge addition for Claremont, as they were lacking a star player on this year's team. With the addition of Lane, I think CMS has solidified their place as the #2 team in the country at the moment. With Erani and Johnson now able to move lower in the lineup, this becomes a significantly stronger team.

Final 8 Recap

I'll start by saying congratulations to Middlebury and their outstanding core of seniors. They deserve it after a great season.

I'll go through each day starting with the morning quarters on Tuesday. From what I've heard, the effort from NCW was not very good. It seemed as though they thought they couldn't win and gave Middlebury too much respect. After Midd swept the doubles, it was over and there's really not much more to say. Midd romped NCW in singles and this match was over in about 2 hours. The experience for Midd paid off in this one. Much like the other morning quarterfinal, one team was experienced and looking to win the tournament while the other one was just happy to make the Final 8. Midd advances to the semis. The other quarterfinal was the same result, just less extreme. I thought CMU would come out with a nothing to lose attitude, and maybe they did, but it backfired as Wash U's experience on this stage paid off and resulted in an easy doubles sweep. Like I said, the last time I picked Wash U to lose, they swept Hopkins in doubles at Indoors 8-4 across the board. The same exact thing happened in this one. The Indoors first round and this match were almost identical. CMU had a great season but they clearly were not ready to play and they couldn't match the intensity of Wash U. The Bears experience just paid off. After the doubles in this one, I thought Wash U may have a shot at Midd if they could keep that dominance in doubles going. The afternoon matches brought two much closer results. The doubles in the CMS-Trinity match was absolutely outstanding and maybe the highest quality doubles matches of the tournament. I wasn't wrong about Trinity's outstanding doubles lineup, but CMS managed to get the 1 very important point that they needed. CMS' dominance in singles was seen pretty quickly as they took first sets at 2 through 6. Trinity mounted a mini comeback when they won 2nd sets at 3 and 4 but wins at 2, 5 and 6 quickly pushed the Stags to a 4-2 lead before MacColl closed to end it. This is what I expected to happened as Trinity came out fired up, but the better team won in the end. CMS advanced to the semis but they had to be questioning their doubles a bit. The last match of the day will go down as the most amazing result in D3 history. Emory sweeps doubles with easy wins at 1 and 3 and a breaker at 2 which was actually a big surprise for me. Let's go over what Amherst was able to do. They were down 3-0. Emory has the best 1 in the country, the best 2 in the country and arguably the best 4 in the country. Pottish hadn't lost a D3 dual match all spring and Goodwin has never lost in a D3 dual match in his two year career. The chances of Amherst winning this were 1 in 100. Emory seems to be well on its way to its 9th straight Final 4. Despite losing 1st sets at 1 and 2 which was a shocker, Emory wins 1st sets at 3, 4 and 6. The report I got was that the heat and humidity were awful Tuesday afternoon. Amherst turned the match in an hour. The took second sets at 1 and 3 through 6. Despite Goodwin winning the second set to even the match, he was getting tired and Kahan looked on his way to an upset win. This is a big surprise for me given the heat in Atlanta. The comeback began with wins at 5, 1 and 2, but Egan won at 4 to force Amherst to win the last 2 matches. Caplan and Gross were late in the 2nd set but Gross got the set to turn the match and he easily took the 3rd. Koenig was so clutch and pulled off the unbelievable upset for Amherst. Emory was the team that had the best chance to beat Midd and I still am wondering what would happen if they won that match. Amherst just seems to always be prepared for the tournament just like last year. They moved on to take on CMS Wednesday.

We now had 4 teams left standing but all 4 knew they would be playing over the next 2 days. With the heat and humidity, there's something in the back of your mind that says save it for the final. This would not be the case as both matches turned out to be marathons. Starting with Midd and Wash U, I think everyone knew that the Bears had to take a lead after doubles to win this match. I knew Watts would win and the Bears had a shot at the bottom of the lineup, but Midd is a little too strong if they have a lead after doubles. 2 and 3 doubles were split quickly and it came down to 1 where Wash U had a match point serving up 8-7 but failed to capitalize and got crushed in the tiebreak. This threw the momentum in Midd's favor but that wouldn't stop the Bears from starting hot in singles. Wash U took 1st sets at 1, 3, 4 and 6 to turn the match in their favor. The first sets from Putterman and Woods were both big surprises to me since Thomson and Olson had both been great all season. Something I haven't mentioned yet is fitness and conditioning. It's something that I rarely discuss but it was certainly a factor during all 3 days of the tournament. Midd took second sets at 1 through 5 in this semifinal and I have to attribute this to superior conditioning. They were able to close at 2 and 5 giving them a 4-1 lead but Wash U was even or leading in all the remaining matches. Watts won as expected and Farah pulled what I would consider an upset at #6 singles to make the score 4-3. Woods hung on for a win but Olson was about to win at #3 to give the match to Midd and he did just that. Looking back, that #1 doubles match could have turned this if Wash U ended up winning. In hindsight, the Bears were only 1 point away from the national championship match for the 2nd time in 3 years. Midd advances in one of their closest matches of the season and they are the favorite in the final no matter who they play. The second semifinal was just an epic match between the underdogs from Amherst and CMS, who was just so hungry to break through and win a national title. The Stags have been to the semis many times but haven't won the title in over 25 years. This was a good chance for them with a very deep team. Both teams trailed in doubles in the their quarterfinal but it was Amherst who was able to jump out to a 2-1 lead with easy wins at 1 and 2. Herst's singles looked dominant the day before so you had to give them the edge heading into singles play. Just like the other semi, CMS comes out and takes 4 first sets to swing the match in their favor. 1, 2 and 5 were all straight sets and after these it was tied 3-3. CMS took a 4-3 lead with a hard fought win at 6 and it came down to 3 and 4. In one of the most amazing comebacks I've seen, Koenig was down 6-1 in the 3rd set breaker. CMS had 5 match points in a row to go to the national championship match and failed to convert. Koenig saved a total of 7 match points and made it 4-4 with an 11-9 win in the breaker. Shortly thereafter, Waterman closed for Amherst to give the Jeffs a 5-4 win and send them to their 2nd national final in as many years. The amazing part of this was that Herst missed the tournament all together in 2008. I don't know which result was more impressive for Herst between the quarters and the semis. An amazing job by Garner and by the team.

Just a quick note on the 3rd-4th match, impressive win by CMS. Every year this is a hard match to play after falling short of your goal of making the finals. Especially in the fashion CMS lost the day before, a very good win for their program. They were probably more ready to play than Wash U. The Bears had come so close the day before against the team that was supposed to be unbeatable and they seemed a little flat in doubles with the exception of the #2 position. The Stags were strong as always but I don't know when they are finally going to get over the hump and win a title. There will always be that cloud hanging over them until they do it and I can't wait to see them fight it out with Cruz again next year. Wash U had a great season but I would say they didn't quite live up to expectations. The semifinal was their season in a nutshell as they had 3 great opportunities and went 0 for 3 in their biggest matches of the season. The Watts loss will really hurt but this is still a young team who will be a contender for many years to come. There's not a ton to discuss when it comes to the final. Midd dominated start to finish and singles was an absolute blowout. I was surprised at the quality of Midd's 2 doubles team throughout the tournament and I give co-MVP honors to Lee, Olson and Jia. I don't know if I can pick 1 because they were all so tough throughout. After about 30 minutes of singles play, this wasn't a match. Amherst needed that lead after doubles but the freshmen Kahan and Sorrell both hit some rough patches and Midd took control with their experience. After doubles, despite the comeback on Day 1, the outcome wasn't really in doubt. A shame for Amherst getting crushed 2 years in a row for the final, but I have them as a huge favorite to win the title next year. Midd was the best team this year. They are probably the best team we've seen since the 2007 Cruz team and they deserved this win. They were only threatened twice during the season, but it's tough to lose when you have 5 great seniors. An unbelievable season for the Panthers and they bring home their 2nd national title of the decade.

CMS-Trinity (TX) Preview

In my preview of the tournament for tennisrecruiting.net, I made a bold statement. I said that at the moment, Trinity (TX) has the best doubles lineup in the country. After dominating DePauw and then almost sweeping Kenyon, the Tigers are really looking tough. They are going to need the lead after doubles if they want to have any chance. This is the only quarterfinal that is a rematch of the regular season and as everyone knows, CMS won 9-0 only dropping 1 set in singles. Trinity is obviously playing better now than they were two months ago, but I would think CMS is as well. Will CMS come out with another 5-0 romp? Highly doubtful. Trinity should be able to hang in doubles if not win 2 or 3 of the matches. In singles, guys just need to step up for the Tigers. CMS is so deep and even a team like Cruz wasn't able to handle it. CMS is just better at every singles spot so Trinity almost needs to get lucky to win. I think the Tigers will really step up in doubles but it won't be enough.

Taking a look at the matches, all 3 doubles spots should be very close. Cocanougher/Kowal haven't been great but they need to win to keep their team in it. Then at 2 and 3, I think Trinity needs one of those spots and 2 is their best chance. The Tigers absolutely need to be up 2-1 after doubles and I think they will be. The good news for Trinity ends there. CMS should just take over in singles. The spots where Trinity has a chance are the top 3 and they would need all of them to win. My guess is that they will get none of them. I think CMS will easily run through the bottom of the lineup and win this 5-2. Trinity would need a massive effort in singles or a doubles sweep to make this match close.

Regional Preview: CMS

I have a vision for D3 tennis that someday all the regionals will have equally distributed strength. But until that day comes, we have #3, #4, #6 and #22 in the country in a 4-team region. I thought that it may be possible for Whitman to avoid this region because UT-Tyler may get sent here. This didn't happen and unfortunately for Whitman they have to take on the host Stags in the 1st round. If they play flawless doubles, I think it's possible they could get a match but I'm going with CMS in a fairly close 5-0. Whitman is no pushover and as I said a few weeks ago, they could give some of the lower top seeds trouble. The Stags are too tough on their home court and should advance to the regional final. The other regional semi is a rematch of the regular season and a match that one should be seeing in the Final 8, not the round of 32. Both of these teams are interesting cases. Cruz had pretty much no expectations on their shoulders entering this year and they end up winning Indoors. They are #1 in the country and have a stretch where they lost 5-4, 8-1, 8-1 to CLU, CMS and Midd. They followed it up by beating Whitman and Redlands, but after this stretch of matches, no one took them seriously anymore as a national title contender. Pybas won Ojai, but some top competition was missing. I would be surprised if Cruz doesn't come out swinging in their 1st round match, especially since they know CLU swept them in doubles during the regular season. If you remember the Indoors final, Cruz swept Wash U in doubles losing only 11 games. They have that potential to just turn it on and they will need it this weekend.

CLU is also an interesting case. They were the talk of the country from Mid-February until the end of March, but since then we haven't heard from them. Giuffrida looked like one of the best players in the country but he recently lost to the #5 from CMS. They have a 7-2 win against Amherst as well as several other great wins, but they were all over a month ago. I don't know what to make of this team right now but I also think they will be ready to play. They've lost to CMS twice on their home court but the important thing for both teams is to focus on their first round. It's quite hard to predict who's going to win this round of 32 match. If I had to guess, I'll go with CLU just because I think their chances at the top 2 singles spots. Take 1 doubles, and the top 2 singles spots as the most important lines in this match. Whoever gets 2 of those 3 will win.

CLU beat Amherst 7-2. Amherst beat CMS 6-3. Amherst also just lost to Williams at home. I think most of the country is automatically putting the Stags in the Final 8, and I think that is a poor assumption. They are my favorite to win this region, but they are going to have to come up with some great tennis to do it. They beat CLU 6-3 twice and both of them were at home. They also absolutely dominated Cruz at home winning all 6 singles in straights. I don't think CMS will lose, but if they come out and have a bad day in doubles, it can happen. Their middle of the lineup is really solid and I think those 3 through 5 guys as well as 2 and 3 doubles propel them to victory in this region. I think both CLU and Cruz would have to sweep doubles to win.

Weekend Recap: April 16-17

7 matches of note took place and 2 automatic bids from major conferences were awarded for the tournament. Starting with Saturday, the SCIAC final was a match that we expected between CMS and Cal Lu and a battle between 2 of the top 5 teams in the country. Both teams took care of business against respectable teams on Friday so I was looking forward to a competitive result. CMS did to CLU exactly what the Kingsmen did to Cruz earlier this season. Came out very hot and put the match out of reach after doubles. Cal Lu was able to take 4 first sets to make things interesting for a while but CMS closed quickly with wins at 2 and 6. The 9 point system strikes again, but at the same time, most teams have been victimized as well as benefitted from it. CLU lost 2 of the 3 spots they needed to win the match and this proved to be the difference. In all likelihood, these teams will see each other again in a few weeks for the 3rd and final time.

One the other side of the country, Middlebury put together it's most dominant performance to date absolutely crushing a tough Bowdoin team. They looked not only dominant in singles but also in doubles and after this weekend it makes me think once again that no one will come close to the Panthers this year. Bowdoin needs to regroup and get ready for an upcoming test against Williams that could make them close to a lock for the tournament. Midd looks tough but they will probably face their most stern test yet when they take on Williams and Amherst on back to back days in 2 weekends. Midd once again cemented their place as the country's top team.

Mary Wash had a convincing win against Hamden-Sydney. I believe the ODAC final is this weekend and HSC and W&L will face off for the automatic bid. Also, Mary Wash will host Salisbury on Friday for the right to the CAC automatic bid as well. It is possible that both of these teams seasons could be over a week from now, but it's also possible they could both be headed to the tournament.

A match that I didn't have on the schedule but probably should have was the USA South conference final between Newport and NC Wes. I think both teams needed a win to get in the tournament and I was scratching my head a little bit when Newport managed to win 2 of the doubles to take the lead. The problem for CNU just like it has been all season is that they aren't deep enough in singles. With the illness of Widing, they don't have enough players who can compete against the likes of top 15 teams. Their top guys have taken care of business but they haven't been getting wins anywhere else. This showed as they won I think 7 combined games in the bottom 4 singles spots which just doesn't get it done against a team the quality of NCW. Wesleyan takes their 2nd consecutive conference title and will be headed to the tournament.

Mary Wash tried to use the momentum of the last two matches to upset Hopkins but they were in trouble before the match even started because one of their best players, arguably their most valuable player, wasn't able to play due to cramps the day before. Probably a good call by their coach to rest him for the upcoming week. Mary Wash was able to get their lone win at the 1 doubles spot, but besides that Hopkins crushed them. A much needed win for Hopkins and the 2nd year in a row that they have destroyed Mary Wash. I have mixed feelings on both of these teams going forward and we will see if UMW is up to the challenge this week.

Kalamazoo has really been struggling lately and it looked like that would continue when Gustavus was able to jump on top of the Hornets with 2 doubles victories. Riley had to be pretty upset with his guys because Kzoo is playing nowhere near their potential right now. His speech between singles and doubles must have work because Kalamazoo came out and swept the singles, which was actually somewhat of a surprise for me. I think this was a closer 7-2 than the score, but Kzoo got the job done. Gustavus needs to focus on beating Carleton again so they can defend their conference title and make the tournament. Kzoo needs to find their game from early in the season.

The biggest match of the day was the heated rivalry between Amherst and Williams. Williams has yet to do anything of note this season and with a home match I expected a lot out of them in this match. They just haven't been producing in doubles and this continued as they struggled to win games at the top 3 spots. Amherst is obviously a strong team but if Williams wants to do anything on the national scene this year and even qualify for the tournament, they have got to pick up their doubles play because it's a joke right now. Credit to Herst who went into Williamstown and took care of business. Williams now faces an absolute must win against Bowdoin this weekend or their season could be over very soon. Much like Trinity (CT), the lack of an out of conference schedule is killing Williams right now and they could find themselves out of the top 15 next week if they don't bring it this weekend.

Update and a Few Previews

The ITA Rankings were released on Wednesday. Most of you are aware that I thought some mistakes were made in the last rankings, but I personally have no problems with this set of rankings. I still think Wash U and Emory are overranked, but I also didn't expect that to change from the last set of rankings. The one thing that is now confirmed that I previously suspected is that Chicago will have to get a big win at conference next weekend if they want to qualify for the NCAA tournament. It now gets to the time when rankings become important for NCAA seedings and every match is huge because your team may not get another chance.

Had a busy week and didn't get to make a post, but at the same time there hasn't been much action. The only notable match that took place this week was on Wednesday, when Kenyon d. Denison 8-1 with the one loss being Greenberg at #1 singles, which was quite a surprise. That could spell bad news for some lower ranked guys in the Central region if the Denison player now qualifies for NCAA Individuals.

Today, there will be 3 matches of note taking place. The first will be when Bowdoin travels south to take on #1 Middlebury. I don't think this will be a very competitive match because Middlebury has just been too tough this season, but Bowdoin could potentially squeeze out a win or two. I don't think an upset is a real consideration here. Secondly, we have an Atlantic South battle between Hampden-Sydney and Mary Washington. These are two teams that could both use a win heading into their conference tournament. I would think UMW will win with their depth in this one and it's possible that the Salisbury win got the Eagles back on track for this weekend. The biggest match on Saturday is the SCIAC championship between #4 CMS and #5 CLU. Of course a conference title is on the line, but more importantly than that I think hosting for NCAAs is also on the line and both of these teams love their home courts. Giuffrida lost to Spearman from Redlands yesterday which was a shocker since Spearman hasn't done much this season. I don't know if Giuffrida is suffering from some health problems or injuries, but his team needs 2 wins from him today if they want to beat the Stags. I'll stick with the same prediction as last time and say that CLU must win #1 doubles and both of the top 2 singles spots if they want to win this match.

Sunday also boasts 3 big matches with the first being another AS clash when Johns Hopkins looks to continue their mini win streak as they travel to Mary Washington for their annual match. This match is big for Hopkins not only for confidence, but they could potentially lose their regional top seed in NCAAs if they lose. The Eagles will most likely be coming off a big Saturday win and they will be hungry for an upset. My guess would be Hopkins is a little too strong at the bottom of the lineup, but I am on upset watch in this match because I don't think it will be as routine as some people think. If Mary Wash can get an edge in doubles, they can win. Confidence wise, I don't think JHU can afford to be upset heading into NCAAs. The 2nd match of note is Kalamazoo vs Gustavus at a neutral site. GAC has won this match in recent years but I have to call Kzoo the favorite tomorrow. The Hornets are another team that desperately need a win after their poor results lately. It is also to their advantage that the match is being played at a neutral site. I think Kzoo will have a little too much talent and I would expect a 6-3 victory for them. The biggest match on Sunday is between the 2 and 3 in the NESCAC and bitter rivals Amherst and Williams. Williams will be hosting and I'm sure they will have a nice crowd. This is a big match not only for bragging rights, but also NCAA seeding and hosting. Williams could make a splash in the top 10 if they win this match and if I'm Hopkins and Kenyon, I'm rooting for Amherst so they both can keep their regional top seed. Both of these teams are very deep in singles and I see the matches as pretty even. Amherst may have a slight edge due to experience but I think this will come down to doubles. Herst should be a bit too strong and I'm going to take them 5-4, but I'm not surprised if Williams wins. #12 in the country is unfamiliar territory for the Ephs so I'm sure they are looking to get back in the top 10.

3 Saturday Previews - April 10th

The calendar shows a very full weekend ahead of us however only a few of these matches will have implications on the national rankings. I'll go over 3 Saturday matches which I feel are the most important of the weekend.

Salisbury at Johns Hopkins

I was quite impressed with Salisbury until yesterday. This has happened before, but one good hour of tennis made Salisbury into a legitimate team and this can happen with the 9 point system. Play great doubles on your home court against a good team and suddenly people take you seriously. This worked for Salisbury but obviously their season comes down to whether or not they can win their conference. The match this weekend is as simple as who will recover better after recent poor results? Hopkins was blown out twice last weekend but they are now on their home courts against a team who is significantly less talented than them. Salisbury was on a high and riding a win streak but now they are sweating about making the tournament. I don't see how Salisbury can win more than 2 singles matches in this one. Hopkins is just better everywhere. The Gulls need a doubles sweep, and that's going to be difficult on the road. I also wouldn't be surprised if Hopkins makes some adjustments to their doubles lineup after being swept two days in a row by teams they are equivalent to. I'm taking Hopkins in a 7-2 win on Saturday because I'm just not a believer in Salisbury right now.

GLCA Tournament

Four contenders are competing this weekend. Kenyon is the host and top seed followed by CMU, Kalamazoo and DePauw. Weird things have happened at this tournament in the past so I'm not going to speculate about the finals, but I will take a look at the potential semis. DePauw hasn't seen any serious D3 action in a while and they know they are out of Pool C if they don't win this tournament. They actually match up decently well against Kenyon, but the problem is I don't know how DePauw is going to get ahead in doubles. Both teams have strong teams 1 through 3 but you have to like Kenyon. I think Kenyon will manage to get a 6-3 win, but they could potentially get in trouble if DePauw wins 2 or 3 doubles. In the other semi, Kalamazoo has been struggling since losing Patrick Boyd, who played 1 doubles and 4 singles. He was a key to their wins against DePauw and Chicago. Even with him, I don't know if they can beat a hot Carnegie team. CMU has been great in singles and I see Kzoo winning two matches max of the 6. If Kzoo wants to win, they need to sweep doubles. I don't know if the CMU doubles sweep of Hopkins was a fluke, but if CMU plays doubles like they had been in previous matches, a sweep isn't out of the question. I'll take CMU 6-3.

Cal Lutheran at CMS

I've been looking forward to this match for about two weeks now and it's time to determine who the best in the West is. The thing I actually just realized is that these teams will meet again the following Saturday in their conference tournament finals. With rankings out next Tuesday, I don't see how CLU could possibly be denied the #2 ranking in the country if they win this match. They are hungry to make something happen, but can they bring that intensity into Claremont and beat their bitter rival on the road? Despite the excellent top of the lineup for CMS, you have to like CLU to get 1 dubs as well as 1 and 2. I know this is harsh, but Giuffrida and Ballou have both passed test after test. Erani beat Giuffrida in the fall so that's one thing he has going for him. The question is can CMS get 5 points in the remaining 6 matches? I certainly like the Stags at the 4 and 5 positions. The Keiffer/Lim team is a question mark and this could be a huge swing point. CLU has also been rock solid at 3 singles so this could be a 4th point for them. Basically, if Cal Lu wins those 3 automatic spots I gave them, they will win. If CMS manages to steal 1 dubs or 1/2 singles, then I like the Stags.

Weekend Recap: April 2-4

7 matches of note took place over the past three days which I'll discuss in this post. I'll provide a few thoughts on each of the results.

Bowdoin took out MIT 6-3 on Friday in a fairly competitive match. Both of Bowdoin's doubles victories were extremely close and if even one of those goes MIT's way, things could have been very interesting. I've heard Pena is done for the season and I don't know if it's true or not, but that certainly hurts Bowdoin. MIT is a tricky team with good depth that could pose problems for some higher ranked teams. I believe they deserve their top 30 ranking and this is certainly a team to watch in upcoming years. Bowdoin enters NESCAC play on a high note and if the tournament started tomorrow, they would be in. They really have to play their way out of it and I think that will be tough. Things are looking bright for the Polar Bears.

Rhodes was a sleeper coming into this year and we saw that they could play with the best in the country when they split singles in a 6-3 loss to Kenyon. Their doubles needs improvement and this showed once again today in a 6-3 loss to the 16th ranked Trinity (TX) Tigers. Trinity was able to win #1 and #2 doubles 8-0 and complete the sweep with an 8-6 at 3. Rhodes won 4 first sets to stay in the match but Trinity proved to be too strong at the top of the lineup. I think Rhodes could pose a potential threat to DePauw and Trinity in the conference tournament if they can improve doubles. They can play with the best in the country in singles but they can't afford to be down 2-1 or 3-0 every match.

I think Hampden-Sydney just gets pumped up to play Washington & Lee. They got trounced at home by Salisbury in a match that was never close. I expected Salisbury to win, but not like this. HSC is all about beating W&L and that's good, but they need to produce against other teams as well. Obviously they are a strong team, but this result certainly didn't show it. Salisbury reinforced their #14 national ranking in this match and they are playing great tennis heading into their Wednesday clash with Mary Washington.

I was quite surprised when Redlands jumped on top of CMS in doubles because I think this is a real strength for the Stags. Even with the 2-1 lead, I had a feeling CMS would win comfortably. I've referred to this many times before, but Redlands isn't a complete team this year. They don't have the top of the lineup and they also aren't winning with their depth, so there's just no way for them to compete with the teams they normally are competitive with. A tough year for the Bulldogs, but give credit to CMS who played great singles. They see Cal Lu in a week in what will be an absolute war. I expect a great match next Saturday from both teams, but CMS needs to watch themselves in doubles after their Saturday performance.

Vassar was undefeated going into their match at home against Trinity (CT) on Saturday although they hadn't faced a real test yet. Trinity (CT) is a strong team and they proved to have a little too much firepower in singles. This was a much needed win for Trinity (CT) who is still looking to jump Bowdoin and Chicago for an NCAA tournament spot. I like this result for both teams, but the thing that jumps out to me is that Trinity (CT) is still struggling in doubles. They aren't going to beat a Williams or Bowdoin if they keep losing doubles because those teams can match their firepower in singles. Vassar proved they are a good team who can knock off a top 15 opponent on the right day. They have a shot at Williams this upcoming weekend so we will see how they do.

I'm just as guilty as everyone else, but I'm pretty sure the majority has been wrong in the weekly poll almost every time. We had 57-41 in favor of Johns Hopkins as a prediction for Saturday. Not only did Hopkins lose, they didn't win a match. I read that Kenyon was down 7-4 at #3 dubs and came back to win and when this happened, the match was over because we knew Greenberg was getting a win. Hopkins has the ability to come back being down 2-1, but not 3-0. This was Kenyon's first big win of the spring and they did it in very convincing fashion. If they play like that every match, they can beat anyone in the country. We knew Hopkins had tough back-to-back matches and after I saw this result I was sure they would bounce back on Sunday.

Carnegie has been struggling with doubles over and over and they decided it was finally time for a change. Despite only flipping two of their players, it worked and they came out and swept Hopkins in three close matches to go up 3-0. Hopkins won 4 of 6 singles against CMU at Indoors, so I thought it was still a possibility that JHU could win. CMU played just as well in singles highlighted by a win at #1 singles to take the match 7-2. They proved that they too can beat anyone in the country on the right day and they deserve to be in the top 10. If they keep up the good doubles, they will be very tough to beat. Hopkins just had a rough weekend and needs to regroup. I think they will only drop to #10 so they are still in line to be a top seed in their region for NCAAs. What they can't afford is another loss to a team ranked below them and I have no doubt this is still an excellent team.

Weekend Recap: March 26-28

Alex Dombos, Kalamazoo

7 matches of note that I'll be discussing in this post. To begin, I'll say I'm quite disappointed that the Hopkins-Chicago match was cancelled on Friday because it was a match I was looking forward to. Chicago doesn't have any tough matches until UAAs so they will hope that their Pool C competitors beat up on each other. Now, moving on to the Friday matches we had Trinity (CT) wrapping up their spring break at Pomona-Pitzer. I said this was a do or die match for both teams as far as NCAAs are concerned and the Bantams came out on top with an easy victory. If they are losing to Trinity (CT) in this fashion, I don't think the Hens are top 20 material. They showed promise early in the season but weren't able to keep up the level of the Mary Wash match. Another year where P-P will fall victim to the poor NCAA selection process. Trinity (CT) stayed alive, but just like last year, they now need a win over a top 3 NESCAC team (possibly more than 1), if they want to make the tournament.

The Midd-CMS match Friday had a lot on the line, most importantly the #1 ranking in the country. Midd continued their incredible play and came away with a fairly routine 7-2 victory. The Panthers will sit at #1 in the ITA rankings on Tuesday and they look to continue their domination in conference play. An undefeated regular season for Middlebury would certainly be an impressive feat. Their weaknesses were supposed to be the bottom of the lineup and doubles and these were both strengths on their trip. If you can rest your 3 and 4 and still win 4 singles against Redlands, you are a very good team. They look untouchable at this moment and if they continue this level, then they will be national champions. CMS needs to start preparing for the Cal Lu match in 2 weeks because this could determine the host institution for the NCAA Regional.

I didn't think Saturday would be all that competitive, but we had three matches won by a 5-4 score, including one of the biggest upsets of the season. Cruz was reeling entering their match with Redlands on Saturday and I felt the Bulldogs would be ready to go because they knew they needed a win like this to get back into the NCAA hunt. Cruz just dominated and got back on track. They won't see any D3 competition until the NCAA tournament, but we know they will be training hard. The Slugs know they have a lot of ground to make up if they want to come out of the West Regional playing on the road. As for Redlands, they just aren't the same team that they've been the past few seasons. They lost some key players and weren't able to recover. They aren't completely out of it yet but the future doesn't look bright this season. The other fairly lopsided match was Hopkins over Washington & Lee. I expected Hopkins to win easily and they did, once again securing their top 10 ranking. W&L needs to regroup after their in-conference loss and get ready to play HSC again in their conference tournament.

We also had three competitive matches Saturday. I expected Carnegie Mellon to crush Mary Washington, but they continue to struggle in doubles. I believe they have played 6 top 25 teams this year and they have been down 2-1 after doubles all 6 times. They've come back to win 3 of those times but losing doubles over and over will catch up with you. That being said, they dominated at the bottom of the singles lineup which is also Mary Wash's strength. I don't think the outcome was ever really in doubt despite the 5-4 score. Mary Wash has to be worried now after Salisbury's big win this weekend. I don't think the Eagles have another gear and at this moment it seems like they won't win their conference. The last two matches of note took place at Salisbury. Kalamazoo finished their spring break trip with two matches against Salisbury and Newport. I was following live stats for the morning match and Salisbury jumped out to an early doubles lead and never let up. They ended up winning 5-4 with #4 singles being the clincher when the match was tied 4-4. I don't know if I've said this before, but I hate results like this. It's a huge flaw of the 9 point system. Kalamazoo wins this match 5 years ago, but again that's just the way things are. This result was important not only for these teams, but it was felt across the country. I didn't take Salisbury seriously after they got crushed by a short-handed Bowdoin team, but I forgot that the Sea Gulls are always very tough on their home courts. Now we have Chicago and DePauw with losses to Kalamazoo, and therefore they should both move behind Bowdoin in the rankings. This pushes Chicago out of the tournament at the moment, even though they've been winning. Kalamazoo was looking really good, but I'm doubting them after this result. I think Salisbury could move into the top 15 on Tuesday. In one of the weirder results I've seen, Kzoo beat Newport 5-4 later in the day. Newport was without one of their top players and Kzoo was able to pull out a win to save themselves from another loss.

3 Friday Previews

Conrad Olson, Middlebury

Trinity (CT) @ Pomona-Pitzer

This is a match between two teams that desperately need a win. Pomona-Pitzer only has one quality win on their resume and Trinity (CT) lost to their rival in a match that they really needed to win. The loser of this match can kiss the NCAA tournament goodbye. Both of these teams need to start producing quickly if they want to be in the tournament and that starts tomorrow. If Pomona-Pitzer is going to win this match, it has to be in doubles. Trinity (CT) hasn't looked all that sharp in doubles this week and I think this is arguably P-P's strength. They will be pumped up on their home courts and I think it's very possible that the Hens can win 2 of 3 doubles. Things turn in Trinity's favor when singles start. I think the middle of the lineup will definitely go in favor of Trinity. The top two spots and bottom two spots both can go either way, but I'd consider Trinity a slight favorite at 1 and 2. 5 and 6 are both tough to call. I think the Bantams will come out on top in this match because they have too many good singles players. 6-3 Bantams tomorrow.

Chicago @ Johns Hopkins

Kalamazoo beat Chicago 7-2. Johns Hopkins beat Kalamazoo 8-1. Easy win for Hopkins tomorrow? Not so fast, my friend. The Maroons have been playing good tennis this week in a trio of 6-3 wins against quality opponents. They will be in top form tomorrow to face a top 10 team. All that being said, I think Chicago may be in over their heads tomorrow. Hopkins is an excellent team who seems to also be in great form after a trouncing of NCW highlighted by doubles sweep. Hopkins will also be playing on their home courts and I think they are the better team. In doubles, I think Chicago is lucky to get 1 point. They have a decent chance at 3, but the top 2 spots clearly favor Hopkins. In singles, Zhang hasn't been great lately but his team really needs him tomorrow. Chicago is probably also a favorite at 6, but besides those I think Hopkins has too much game. I'll take Hopkins in a 7-2 victory tomorrow but I think most of the matches will be competitive.

Middlebury @ CMS

I thought Midd made a statement crushing Cruz the other night but CMS goes and does the same thing in even more convincing fashion. This will be a war between two outstanding teams and national title contenders. The matches are extremely interesting. CMS needs to use their home court to their advantage, particularly in doubles, because Midd is so strong in singles. Another important thing is that CMS has to not have a letdown after such a huge win against Cruz. I'm sure they were so ready for that match and it's tough to do that two days in a row. They will need to bring that same intensity if they want to have a chance to beat Middlebury. I think a Midd win tomorrow will put them at #1 in the country in the rankings next week. A CMS win would give that title to CLU. Looking at the matches, Midd is a pretty sure thing at #1 doubles. 2 and 3 are close, but I feel that both favor CMS on their home court, especially after their dominance against Cruz. Singles is very tough to call. I like Midd at 3 and 4. I think the Panthers have the best 3 and the best 4 in the country. CMS probably has an edge at 5. This would put things at 3-3 with 3 matches remaining. 6 is tough to call and I like Peters in a close one against Erani. He beat him in the fall. Lim and Lee at 2 could determine the outcome of the match. I think Midd will win 5-4 and this will come down to the wire.

Thursday March 25th

Three matches of note taking place tomorrow and I'll just run through them quickly. To begin, Chicago looks to move their spring break trip record to 3-0 when they travel to Mary Washington tomorrow to take on the Eagles. Every match is important for the Maroons because NCAAs are constantly on the line. Chicago made a fairly drastic switch moving Stefanski to #1 and Zhang back to #2. No matter the order tomorrow, I think Chicago will win the top 2 spots. The Maroons match up well with the Eagles in my opinion and I'm expecting a fairly easy win for Chicago. Mary Wash's only chance is to take a 2-1 or 3-0 lead in doubles. The Eagles haven't shown much promise this year and Chicago has played solid but not great tennis during their first two spring break matches. The Maroons need to run through the match tomorrow to gain momentum for the big one against Hopkins.

Williams plays their first D3 match of the season in North Carolina against NC Wesleyan. NCW got a wake up call on Saturday when they were beaten badly by Hopkins, so they will be hungry to play good tennis tomorrow. Both teams are very deep in singles but I think Williams is a little bit stronger. They should get wins from Lebedoff and Sun and NCW will need to match those wins in the bottom spots which I don't know if they can do. Williams has been traditionally weak in doubles so this is a question mark for me. NCW swept Mary Wash in dubs then they were swept by Hopkins. They need to be on their A game in doubles if they want to have a chance tomorrow. I think if Williams leads after doubles, things are looking good for them to get a win. An upset is possible but I'm thinking Williams should win a close 6-3. Williams needs to get some out of conference wins on their resume.

The biggest match of the day is Cruz at CMS. Santa Cruz has lost two recent matches after winning Indoors so I'm not sure what type of mindset their team is in. CMS lost a surprise match to Amherst but recovered nicely against a strong Bowdoin team. If Santa Cruz loses tomorrow, we know for sure that they won't be hosting the West Regional for NCAAs. This could end up being very important. This match is a battle every year and I expect a match coming down to the wire tomorrow. In singles, I think things will be very even. 1 through 3 can both go either way, but I like CMS towards the bottom of the lineup. In doubles, Cruz should win 1 and the bottom 2 are unpredictable. CMS will get at least 1 on their homecourts, but I'm not encouraged after either team's doubles performances in their recent matches. I'm going with CMS in a nailbiter tomorrow but obviously this one can go either way.

Tuesday March 23rd

UPDATE: Not sure how I missed this on the calendar but Trinity (CT) plays at Cal Lutheran tomorrow. This will be the last test for the Kingsmen before CMS. CLU matches up well with Trinity (CT), and since they are both top heavy teams I don't think CLU will struggle too much, especially since Trinity (CT) won't really be used to the outdoor conditions. I think the Bantams have a decent shot at the 3 and 4 singles spots but other than that, they're in trouble.

Just a brief Tuesday preview. We have 3 important matches set to take place, all in the West. Whitman looks to carry their momentum from the Pomona-Pitzer win into Redlands. At this moment in time, Whitman is probably ranked higher than Redlands but I think these teams are even. They both play good doubles and have deep lineups. However, I think Whitman has the advantage at the top of the lineup and I'm guessing this will push them to victory. The Bulldogs need to be ahead after doubles if they want to have a chance. Bowdoin travels to CMS for the Stags second NESCAC opponent in a row. I think CMS should win fairly comfortably, but I also thought that about the Amherst match. CMS needs to get back on track after that tough loss and this match would certainly help. At the same time, an upset would greatly enhance Bowdoin's NCAA chances so they should be hungry for a win.

The biggest match of the day is Middlebury vs Santa Cruz. Cruz doesn't want to lose 2 matches in 4 days but Midd is one of the most talented teams in the country. There should be some real heavyweight matches at the top of the lineup. What Midd can't afford is to get swept in doubles. They have been questionable in doubles early in the season in previous years. Cruz will be hungry for a win, but if they lose they could find themselves back to #3 in the country. I'm expecting a Midd win in a very tight match but if Cruz plays great doubles I think they could win. If UCSC isn't up at least 2-1 after dubs they don't have a chance.