Reviewing 4 Close Matches On Tue/Wed

The past 2 days were certainly not lacking in drama. First I want to talk about today's match that saw Johns Hopkins travel to Emory in a 6-3 victory for the Eagles that was much closer than expected. For those who haven't seen it, check the box score to the right in the latest news section. Emory was lucky to win. This match says several things, but I don't want to read too much into it. First of all, I would bet Emory went in overconfident, knowing that they stand as the best team in the country and Hopkins was just beaten solidly by NC Wesleyan 2 days ago. The Eagles had to think they would run through this match, but they were very wrong. I think this is great for Emory because it's a wake up call. It shows them that they are susceptible to doubles sweep on any day and they are far from invincible. I'm sure a few points here and there could have given Hopkins a win. The Eagles pulled this out and they now know they have to be on their heels against pretty much anyone in the top 15. I thought the top 3 were on a different level than everyone else, but maybe that's not the case. The bottom line is this is the toughest match Emory's played all season, even tougher than CMS and Wash U. Emory was clutch and managed to survive, and I think this match helps them a lot going forward. I wasn't sure what to make of Hopkins performance when comparing this to the NCW match, but I got an email with a good idea. Hopkins doesn't perform when there are expectations. Looking at the past several years, every time you expect something from JHU, they fold. And when there are no expectations, such as this match, they do very well. That doesn't seem to be an easily fixable problem; Hopkins doesn't play well as the favorite. This match result shows me they have the talent to play with anyone in the country, but they are inconsistent. The Bishops rolled them in singles on Monday, and no disrespect to NCW, but I think Emory is a stronger team than NCW. Something clicked for Hopkins today, and this match has to give them confidence moving forward.

Tuesday's results are posted below in the previous post. Bowdoin took care of Cal Lu as expected. They had too much depth and it showed. The same thing happens to Cal Lu every match, and the truth is they would really be a dangerous team with Ballou. Right now they've got 3 guys who can win in Giuffrida, Wilson and Sousa and that's not enough to beat solid top 15 opponents. The Kingsmen are good, they just don't have the complete team to compete at the highest level this year. They need to do some serious recruiting for next year because their current personnel aren't getting the job done. Bowdoin has to be very happy with their trip. I think they performed quite well and got their young guys some valuable experience. I expect them to be sitting at 14 in the country in the next rankings which should put them as the 6th Pool C team for the time being. This is a typical Bowdoin year; a very solid team who's dangerous against anyone. I think they can go home quite satisfied with their performance and I expect them to keep up the high level in NESCAC play.

In DePauw-Chicago, we saw our first comeback from an 0-3 hole in doubles this season as the Maroons were swept but went on to win 5 first sets and hold on in all of those matches. A much-needed win for Chicago, and when you look at the Maroons resume, it's actually fairly solid this year. This win kept their NCAA hopes alive, but they still need to make something happen. They either need to take out Wash U in their regular season match or take at least 3rd in the UAA tournament, which would mean a win over Carnegie. When the next rankings out, barring any meltdowns from anyone or any unexpected wins from Redlands, I see Chicago sitting at 7th in Pool C right behind Bowdoin. The Polar Bears are going to pad their resume with wins most likely when they take on MIT, Bates and Trinity (CT). Chicago has to match that with a big win of their own because they don't have the amount of ranked wins that Bowdoin will have. The Maroons did a good job in this, but they still have work to do. DePauw is in a big hole right now and I think they may need to go and win the GLCA tournament, and at the very least beat Carnegie in a probable semifinal. They do have their conference tournament to fall back on, but they will have to beat a very good Rhodes team and then Trinity (TX) on back to back days. This was a match DPU needed to win and their NCAA hopes look grim at the moment. Chicago's talent showed in this match in singles and I think it's good for the Maroons to finally get a win against a big time program.

I predicted a win for Pomona-Pitzer against Williams and I was correct, but not in the fashion I expected. Williams has to be pleased with their doubles play against a team that took 2 of 3 from Emory and Kenyon this season. They just didn't get the job done in singles and I think PP's experience paid off. This is not a bad loss at all for the Ephs as PP is ranked ahead of them, but Williams needs to put this behind them because they have Redlands, CLU and Cruz all in the next week. If they can go 2 for 3 in this stretch, I think they are in good shape. They start a freshman and 5 sophomores in singles, so this is still a really young team that will mature throughout the season. I like this Williams team a lot, and if they continue with this level in doubles, they will be really tough to beat all season long. PP continues their dream season with another huge win. The Hens enter SCIAC play riding high, but now its time for them to win rivalry matches against Redlands and CLU. PP has done an amazing job so far, similar to CLU last year, but now is the time when CLU started to go downhill. PP needs to keep it up and carry this momentum all the way through the end of the season.

NCW Tops Hopkins and Tuesday Preview

On Monday, Bates took down Kalamazoo in a close 5-4 that came down to the last match at #2 singles. Good win for Bates, but this shows me for sure they are ranked properly around 23. Another solid Bates team who may finish 5th in the NESCAC; a pretty typical year for them. I know Kzoo is a work in progress, but they are really down this year. It was good for them to win 4 matches against a top 25 team, but I just find it disheartening how much this team has dropped off and no one seems to care. They will extend their conference winning streak, but they aren't a serious threat to do anything in NCAAs. Thinking about it, they probably head into the GLCA tournament in a couple weeks as the #6 seed, which is shocking given that they were top 15 just a year ago.

Cruz beat Trinity (CT) 8-1 on a cold day in NorCal with Trinity only winning at 1 singles in 3 sets. Good win for the Slugs as they head to Texas. The biggest match of the day saw NC Wesleyan defeating Hopkins 5-4 in a match that was really never close. Awesome job by NCW, they clearly learned from Indoors and pulled off this win playing without their #1 Rinat Khussainov. The scores from the bottom of the lineup were surprising, as NCW just dominated. They got the point they needed in doubles and I think they are just in the head of Hopkins at this point. We'll see how things play out, but I wouldn't be surprised if these 2 are in the same position as last year, competing for an NCAA Final 8 bid against each other. If you're Hopkins, it's one thing to beat up on teams you are clearly better than, but to go on the road and beat a team who's just as good as you takes a lot of will, and NCW just out-competed the Bluejays today. The mental toughness is still lacking in big matches, and Hopkins has upcoming chances to turn it around. NCW doesn't have a serious test the rest of the season so I think they go into NCAAs as a team that people will overlook, which I'm sure they love. This was a big win for the Bishops and they are in a great spot right now because Hopkins may beat some people later in the season.

Super Tuesday tomorrow with 3 matches that should all be very competitive and 6 Pool C teams competing. The headline match of the day probably has the least on the line. Williams begins their D3 season against one of the hottest teams in the country, Pomona-Pitzer. Williams is looking to start well after last year's disappointing finish. This team is a year older now and I expect big things from them this year. That being said, I think this will be a difficult one for the Ephs. They aren't match tested and are playing on the road against a confident and battle-tested team. If Williams loses tomorrow, even something like 7-2, I don't think they should be alarmed. If they win, it's a great effort by them, but you can only expect so much of yourself this early in your season. I think Williams is talented enough to not have to worry about missing the NCAA tournament, but this match could potentially have big implications towards Williams getting a top seed in their NCAA regional and being able to avoid Middlebury or Amherst in the Sweet 16. Pomona-Pitzer is ranked 9th, but their NCAA fate is somewhat determined, so I think a win helps Williams more than it helps PP. Both teams should want to win, but Williams probably has slightly more to play for. I expect a very good match and I think a lot depends on Williams being able to hang in doubles, because that's typically where you are rusty if you haven't played much. I like PP in a close 5-4, but no one knows what to expect from Williams so the result is hard to gauge.

The other 2 matches both have huge implications for NCAAs. First the rescheduled match between Bowdoin and Cal Lutheran takes place in Thousand Oaks. Another note is that the Trinity CT-Cal Lu match has been rescheduled for Thursday. Cal Lu desperately needs this win if they want to stay in the NCAA hunt. Wins against Tyler and Whitman are nice, but not enough to put a team in the top 15 and have them qualify in the top 6 teams for Pool C. Cal Lu's Mary Wash loss now looks horrible and they somehow need to offset that with a significant win. This match would be that significant win. I think the Kingsmen match up well with Bowdoin and have a good chance in this, but they have to take a lead in doubles. They have to match Bowdoin's intensity, because I don't think they make NCAAs if they lose tomorrow. I know they have several remaining matches on their schedule, but I don't know if matches against Midd and Williams are realistic wins, and they may have to beat out Pomona-Pitzer or Redlands. The Trinity CT match on Thursday is big, but with the Bantams probably not being a serious top 20 team, this is the one Cal Lu needs. Giuffrida and Wilson have been great this season, but either Worley or Sousa needs to step up tomorrow and get a win in singles, because from all indications, Bowdoin is up 2-0 before the match starts with wins at 5 and 6 singles. Cal Lu needs a little magic, but they have been great at home the past few weeks. Cal Lu is 1-3 in 5-4 matches this season and I think they extend that to 1-4 tomorrow. CLU has a couple great players, but I don't know if they've got enough to beat a well-rounded team like Bowdoin. I wouldn't be that surprised if CLU wins, but I can't pick against the Polar Bears in this. I also didn't mention this is not a match Bowdoin wants to lose, because then they have to root for Cal Lu to beat a team like Redlands. Bowdoin wants to control their own destiny when it comes to making NCAAs, and a win tomorrow would really help.

The match I'm most looking forward to is Chicago and DePauw. These 2 have had some heated encounters over the years and I expect another one tomorrow. DePauw is 3-1 against Chicago over the past 5 seasons, but the Maroons won the most recent one last year in an easy 7-2 win on the road. This is a clash of styles, with the wildly talented underachieving Maroons against a very solid and disciplined DePauw. I'm not going to say lose and you don't make NCAAs, but the loser has a serious uphill battle the rest of the season. They both don't have a ton of remaining opportunities on their schedule, but whoever gets this win on their resume gets a huge boost toward making NCAAs. I really don't know who to pick in this because Chicago has been out of D3 competition for a couple weeks and we haven't seen much of DePauw yet. This is just about as close as you get to a must-win, because the loser would probably need a win over a team like Carnegie Mellon to have a shot at Pool C, and I don't know if either team has that in them. Surprisingly, these 2 haven't played very close matches over the past few years, but I expect a close one tomorrow. My gut tells me Chicago gets the win tomorrow, but again I expect it to come down to the wire. It should be a wonderful match, and hopefully the sportsmanship remains as great as the play because I know that's been an issue in the past when these 2 meet.

Tuesday Recap, Brief Wednesday Preview

Pomona-Pitzer was not playing over their heads at the Stag-Hen and Amherst is just really good. The Jeffs knocked off Trinity (TX) today without both Joey Fritz and Mark Kahan, 2 of their top 4 players. The box score isn't available at the moment but this Trinity release has scores.

Emory is tough and CMS is also very good, but what Amherst did today is just unmatched. Kahan and Fritz played 1 and 3 yesterday and Garner didn't even bother to bring them to play a top 10 quality opponent. They just have unbelievable depth and it's a gutsy move to not bring 2 of your top guys. Either way, they came away with a comfortable 7-2 win in a danger match. I'm really looking forward to their match with CMS this weekend and I assume they would bring a full lineup to play the Stags. After seeing Emory win like they did, I was impressed, but now I remember why I thought Amherst was a level above everyone else. At the same time, Trinity can't go home happy. I ranked them 4th in the country based upon the assumption that they had the best 1 and 2 doubles team in the country. Clearly, that is far from true, particularly at 1. If you look at Trinity's 3 matches at Indoors and their 5 matches in California, their #1 team is 3-5. This team was an NCAA semifinalist in '09, and NCAA finalist last year and an ITA national champion in the fall. Why can't they do the same thing in dual matches? I think this Tigers team is better than the Trinity team that was #1 in the country for a portion of 2008. It would be a shame for them to waste this season. They've got 10 days to regroup and I think they need to get at least 1 win at their quad for confidence purposes. It's not going to be easy with Cruz, CMS and Wash U coming to town, but so far they've shown they are just another team and nowhere near elite. I expect the Tigers to end up somewhere between 12-16 in the next rankings which is just not good for a team of this caliber.

Kenyon is a great story this year, but if you want to talk about surprising, look no further than Pomona-Pitzer. The Hens will most likely come in at #9 in Thursday's rankings, 11 spots higher than I had them projected. Coach Belletto has done a fantastic job and their 2 wins today prove that they are really tough. I think they are just about a lock for Pool C at this point barring some very unforeseen circumstances. Bowdoin was clearly a better team today than they were Monday and the Hens really took it to them in doubles and never let their feet off the gas. I'll say again that I'm impressed, especially with their absolute destruction of Tyler. I know PP always thinks highly of themselves, but this year they are actually walking the walk. They have a tricky match against Skidmore Saturday and Williams in a week, but for now that single digit ranking next to their name should feel great.

Bowdoin and Whitman are interesting stories. The Polar Bears clearly played better today than they did against TU with a solid win over Whitman, but as I mentioned yesterday, Bowdoin can't get in holes in doubles because they don't have enough players to dig their way out against top 15 teams. Pena is not in his freshman year form, as he is losing matches at 3. If he's not a strong 2, this team is nothing special. Sullivan has won all of his matches, but 1 player is only going to take you so far. I like Bowdoin around #15 or 16 right now the way they are playing and that may not be high enough to get them in the tournament. They actually don't play Redlands this year but have some other big matches coming up. This has been a crazy season and Whitman has been in the middle of all of it. After their results the past 2 days, I think they may have just caught an unprepared and downtrodden Trinity team on Saturday, because I'm not too impressed with them. The same Tyler team they lost to also lost to Rhodes and Cal Lu and got destroyed by PP today. Whitman had an opening to get themselves very highly ranked, but after a trip with huge swings, I think they probably go home where they started at about 18th. The glimmer of light was there but they couldn't take advantage of it. I really like this program and that's disappointing to see, but they may very well find themselves in California for regionals again. They finish against Cal Lu tomorrow which is a match I think they can win.

Whitman-Cal Lu occurs tomorrow along with Bowdoin-Skidmore and Amherst-Redlands. I'm really looking forward to seeing Skidmore play a top team because I think they are very tough this year. This will be a good test for both teams, but more pressure is on Bowdoin due to Pool C hanging over them. That match headlines tomorrow for me. Given Redlands performance against Emory and Cruz, I don't think tomorrow's result against Amherst is in doubt. Herst can probably bring half their lineup and win comfortably, but the Verdieck Tennis Center is never an easy place to play. I like Redlands to put up a fight in doubles and possible get a match, but they probably fade after that against a more talented team. Lastly, Whitman-Cal Lu is a match of contrasting styles as we have depth against a top heavy team. Given the results over the past few days, this should be a very even match that can go either way. If Cal Lu wants to keep Pool C hopes alive, they need a win, and at the same time, Whitman wants to go home to Washington with a win as well.

A Wild Monday and Tuesday Thoughts

I want to attempt to go through a couple strings of matches that involve a lot of the teams that played today. Bear with me here because it may not make a ton of sense. I'm just trying to prove we have a lot of even teams and mayhem. Rhodes beat UT-Tyler who beat Whitman who beat Trinity (TX) who beat Cal Lutheran who beat UT-Tyler. Vassar lost to Swarthmore who lost to Whitman who lost to UT-Tyler who lost to Cal Lutheran who lost to Mary Washington who lost to Whittier who lost to Vassar.

That makes a ton of sense and it's still early in March. After your top 8-10 teams, it seems as though the next 25 or so could all beat each other on any given day. Everything is situational right now and it's hard to make sense of it.

To begin today, I want to talk about Rhodes. This is a team who thought they were good last year, but never got it all together in doubles. They finished 3rd in their conference and gave DePauw a fairly tough time in the conference semis. At the moment, I definitely expect to see them ranked on Thursday and as crazy as this sounds, potentially in the top 20. The glitch with Rhodes is they play an incredibly soft schedule. Denison and Tyler were the only 2 decent teams they play this year, so I don't see how they can possibly be rewarded with a Pool C bid, especially given that Tyler also lost to Cal Lutheran who has had a rough year. That being said, watch out for them in the SCAC tournament. I think it's a great win for Rhodes to beat a Denison team that played down to the wire with Chicago. Again, I expect Rhodes to be ranked and I can honestly see them as high as 16 or 17 because the bottom line is they haven't lost a D3 match yet and they have an indirect win against Whitman who beat Trinity (TX). Realistically, I think they get ranked around 25, but you can make the case for them being higher. At the same time, Tyler's win today was huge for Cal Lu, who now has a glimmer of Pool C hope in my opinion. They did lose to Mary Wash, but after beating Tyler and playing a very tough 5-4 against a top 8 opponent in Kenyon, I like where they're at right now for all the bad things that have happened to them. Typical Kenyon performance just getting the job done and getting a W. That has been their style this year; no flashy victories just solid tennis and it's working for them. They should go home from California thrilled with their trip. The trend I'm seeing this year is teams aren't comfortable away from home. Cal Lutheran and Mary Washington are 2 completely different teams when they are at home. CLU just played 5-4 with Kenyon without their #1, who they had in a loss to Mary Washington. Playing 5-4 with Kenyon is something CMU, Chicago and Whitman all couldn't do.

Coach Northam's account of the Whitman-Tyler match is that his squad just got outplayed by the Patriots. That tells me that Tyler is clearly talented and should be ranked even after a rough start. In their defense, their #1 Josh Chavez didn't play when they lost to conference foe McMurry, who by the way is another team to pay attention to that could be ranked. Whitman plays Bowdoin tomorrow, who got spanked in doubles by Trinity today. Bowdoin is traditionally terrible in their opening match of the spring in doubles, which is understandable. A win tomorrow could really help them bounce back after today, but a loss to Whitman would not be good. I think it's okay that Bowdoin faltered today, just as long as they are able to rebound tomorrow. At the same time, Whitman should be hungry to get a win after they didn't have the Monday they wanted. I worry about Bowdoin's middle of the lineup, because I don't think they have enough firepower to consistently get 4 singles wins against good teams. If the Polar Bears doubles isn't clicking, they are in trouble. A lot depends on how beaten up Whitman is tomorrow because I expect a really close match.

That's only 1 of the 5 matches happening tomorrow and we have 2 teams on double duty. First, Denison continues their spring break and travels to Emory. The Big Red may able to hang in doubles if they play better than they did today but I expect them to win 1 match maximum against the hottest team in the country. I already discussed the Bowdoin-Whitman match briefly, but there are 2 other matches that have huge significance in this grouping of teams. We get to see Pomona-Pitzer after the Stag-Hen for the first time as they have a 2 match day taking on both UT-Tyler and Bowdoin. The Polar Bears will be looking for revenge after today and they get a crack at a Pomona-Pitzer team who is top 10 the the moment. If PP holds serve and wins both tomorrow, I think they enter Thursday's rankings in the single digits, probably a first for this program. That should be huge motivation for the Hens as they saw that Bowdoin is vulnerable and Tyler is dangerous, so they will be sure to be on their heels for that one. If PP comes together for the next 24 hours and comes out of tomorrow with 2 wins, they are top 10 in the country and pretty much home free in Pool C. Bowdoin obviously also has 2 matches. They too are competing for Pool C and it would not be good for them to lose both tomorrow. If they start spring break 0-3 with a loss to a Pool C competitor, they are in a hole because the truth is life just gets harder when they have to go home and play the NESCAC big 3 along with their huge rival Trinity (CT). The Polar Bears desperately need a win tomorrow and hopefully they got the rust off today. So we've got Emory-Denison, PomonaPitzer-Bowdoin, PomonaPitzer-Tyler and Whitman-Bowdoin.

The thing I'm most excited for tomorrow is the start of Amherst's season. They had a few matches today with split squads and a couple things stand out to me. First of all, I expected Andrew Jung to be back and he didn't play today. I think that makes them weaker, but they obviously are still very tough. The second thing is Austin Chafetz at the 4 position. I wonder if that's a move by Chris Garner in an attempt to counter Emory's top 2 players. That would be my first instinct. Either way, we will get a great feel for Herst tomorrow when they take on Trinity (TX). If I was Amherst I would have preferred that Trinity did well over the weekend so they aren't as hungry for a win. Trinity is still dangerous and they had to get some confidence after their win today against a potential top 15 team. Trinity has nothing to lose tomorrow, but I expect Amherst to be tough enough in singles to gut out a close 7-2 or 6-3 win. This would be a win that would completely turn Trinity's season around and I think they've got a shot. Amherst is a great team, but the first few matches transitioning indoors to outdoors are not easy. I'm looking forward to all tomorrow's action and hopefully we can sort all of this out tomorrow night after we have more information.

Stag-Hen Analysis

Colin Egan, Emory

Vassar - A bit disappointed in their performance, but my conclusion is they just aren't that good this year. They are probably slightly weaker than last year's team who finished 28, so I just don't see them as top 30 material. They probably can beat Skidmore on a good day, but it will take a lot of work to get there. I really expect John Cox to instill a winning attitude in this program, but great things don't happen overnight.

Swarthmore - Not too much to say, but I'm happy to see them get a win on a big stage. They're still a decent team and after seeing them give Whitman a hard time and beat Vassar, they may be in the 30-40 range of teams this year. That's probably an improvement over the past 3 years which is a step in the right direction.

Trinity (TX) - I don't really know what to say. Trinity was beaten up with illness this weekend; I get that, but this morning was not good. I can understand a loss to P-P, especially given how the Hens did in their next 2 matches. Trinity is almost on Chicago's level when it comes to underachieving at the moment. In their defense, their California trip last year was a trainwreck and they ended up just fine at the end of the season, but they have to remember that there are only so many chances. They still have Amherst and Bowdoin on this trip and those are far from walks in the park. The point of doing well in the regular season is to give yourself an easy region in NCAAs (unless you're in California), or make NCAAs period. I can see Trinity losing to Bowdoin and Amherst, losing all 3 matches in their quad and then losing the conference final to DePauw on some fluke day. That means they probably miss the tournament. I picked this team 4th in the country pre-season, and the way they played the first month of the season, they're not even top 10. The talent is there, I don't doubt that, but they aren't where they need to be mentally or on the court. I still think they are extremely dangerous, potentially near the level of the top 3, if they put it all together. But me saying that and them actually doing it are 2 very different things.

Whitman - Not a good start for Whitman, but they got their big win against Trinity. To begin, the Kenyon match was closer than its 8-1 score, but Kenyon was better in tight situations, and I attribute that to the first month of the season. The Lords had another gear to go to and Whitman did not because the bottom line is warm up matches against teams in the NWC don't get you used to the level needed to beat a team like Kenyon. Whitman is obviously limited geographically and scheduling wise, but by the time they got into the groove of this tournament, look what they were able to do. This team reminds me a lot of DePauw; very hard working, plays good doubles and doesn't have a lot of flashy stars. Basically, a team like P-P who can be a thorn in Trinity's side because they have the doubles and depth to keep up with the Tigers as well as a great attitude on court. I've been on Whitman about beating a higher ranked team and they did it. They deserve this win and they'll be rewarded for it ranking wise. Depending on how results play out the next few days, Whitman will be top 15 in Thursday's rankings with top 12 also a possibility and #10 not out of the question. Even though they slipped in the match they were preparing for, they showed a ton of resiliency and for that they deserve a lot of respect. They may not be the most talented bunch but their hearts are as big as anyone.

Pomona-Pitzer - Emory won the tournament, but to me, the Hens were the top story this weekend. This is an experienced team that is well coached and I feel like Belletto's first several years as head coach have all lead to this year. He's taken what he has and made the most of it, and for that, this program deserves praise. I was on PP about not being able to get a big win, and they finally showed that they are the real deal. The most impressive thing is that they didn't go away after their Trinity win. They took more points from Emory than CMS did, and even though they lost the Kenyon match, they made a statement that they are a serious Pool C contender and a potential top 10 finisher this year. They are in great position to make the tournament now and will really have to mess up to not get a Pool C bid, especially if Trinity gets some wins later in the season. I was so impressed with this team this weekend and if they continue to get better, there's no reason they can't give CMS and Cruz a hard time. It's unfortunate they may not make it out of the California regional, but given how far this team has come, just making it should be a big accomplishment. I expect to see them top 10 in the next rankings.

Kenyon - The Lords continue to play top notch tennis and showed great mental toughness dominating Whitman in doubles and coming back from a 4-2 deficit against PP. Remember that this team lost 4 starters from a team that finished 12th last year and now they look like a solid top 10 contender. If that's not enough warrant for coaching staff of the year awards, I don't know what is. I am continually impressed by the 2011 Lords. I keep expecting them to slip and it doesn't happen. Interestingly enough, they are through the difficult part of their schedule and that means they have pretty much locked up a top seed in their NCAA regional. Given that they beat Denison, the only tough thing remaining is GLCAs where they see Case or Denison in the semis and then CMU or DePauw likely in the final. They've weathered the storm and done what they needed to do, and I can't say enough about how impressed I am that they successfully patched up the holes left by last year's graduating class. A fantastic tournament for Kenyon and I really am a believer in this team now.

CMS - I blame it on a bit of overconfidence. They absolutely crushed the #7 ranked team in the country and watched Emory struggling against a Pomona-Pitzer team that the Stags crush year after year. The Stag faithful will make the excuse that Robbie Erani didn't play (I'm assuming he's injured), but the bottom line is he wouldn't have won that match for CMS. As tough as CMS is and as much depth as they have, they were significantly weaker than Emory mentally. They didn't get outplayed or outcoached, they just didn't come through in the clutch. The good news is that's a fixable problem and it comes with experience. Playing NAIA teams is not the same as playing D3 matches, so in reality this was a great test for CMS to see where they stand and they will be ready for Amherst next weekend. It may have been good for them to get a wake up call like this, because they had been cruising so far this season. They get into the real heart of their schedule now, but they know they aren't the best team in the country. They train hard, but they need to do some re-evaluation if they want to win a national title. The talent is there and the match was closer than the 7-2 result, but they lost pretty badly in a match I know they expected to win.

Emory - The moment NCAAs ended last year, I was on the Emory bandwagon for the 2011 Eagles because I know the quarterfinals of NCAAs is not an acceptable result for this program. We haven't seen Herst yet, but Emory is the team to beat right now and has cemented themselves as #2 in the country and potentially #1. The Eagles came through where I thought they were vulnerable and I think it's great that they don't just count on their top guys to win matches. It was probably good for them to be pushed in that semi because it showed them that they need to play better doubles, and that's exactly what they did. Emory has designed their doubles lineup so their 3 team is a sort of insurance so that they don't get swept. They got a quick point in the final and took the pressure off the other 2 teams. I have absolutely no criticism of this team right now because I think they are not only talented, they have finally become focused and humble and are no longer the loud-mouth team that everyone used to hate. They will continue to be tested throughout the season and that's good for them, because I know how badly they want the national title back after a 4 year dry spell topped off by a particularly bitter defeat in 2010.

Stag-Hen Invitational Discussion

Alex Lane, CMS

After a year hiatus, the Stag-Hen Invitational is back for a 4th year. The field is always strong for this tournament and this year is no exception. 4 of the current Top 10 teams in the country will be competing along with 2 others also in the top 20. For those of you unfamiliar, CMS and Pomona-Pitzer co-host this event, as their courts are within walking distance of each other. They do a wonderful job with the event and it's a great opportunity for all participants to play in a beautiful location and play teams they normally wouldn't see. Let's take a look at this year's field.

CMS vs. Swarthmore
Kenyon vs. Whitman
Trinity (TX) vs. Pomona-Pitzer
Emory vs. Vassar

There are storylines involving every team competing and it's a lot of potential information to digest. Everyone has their eyes on a potential CMS-Emory final, but they both have a lot of work to do to get there. First, I'll discuss the bottom 2 seeds. Swarthmore is a program that is lost right now. It seems like a long time ago, but they qualified for Indoors as recently as 2007. After that, we haven't heard from them. The Garnet are in danger of dropping down to 4th in their conference this year with F&M and Haverford being solid programs. It's unfortunate to see the sudden downfall of a team that was once top notch, but they just aren't recruiting at a high enough level to keep up. With the academic draw of the school, one would think they should be a contender for the top 20 in the country. This isn't the case though and they are a heavy favorite to finish 8th in the tournament. With a little bit of restructuring and some good recruiting, Swarthmore could be back on the map as a national power, just like Amherst did a few years ago. For now, I see them getting crushed 3 times this weekend. Vassar may have a shot at winning 2 matches, but it's unlikely with the strength of the other 3 teams in the bottom half. I've talked about the Brewers a fair amount, and they are trying to establish themselves as a team that is ranked consistently. This is a good opportunity for them to get exposure against some teams outside of New England, but I think it's pretty clear they are 7th best team in this tournament.

The 3 through 6 teams may be a lot closer in ability than meets the eye. The other 2 matches highlight the first round and I would not be at all surprised if 1 of them ended in an upset. First, the co-host Pomona-Pitzer takes on Trinity (TX) in a match where both teams have something to prove. Trinity did not have a very good California swing last year so they are looking for some redemption and trying to prove that they are a top 5 team. Losing this match would not help that cause. As I've said, Trinity peaks late in the season, but I'm sure the Tigers feel they should finish at least 3rd in this tournament. PP is trying to finally break through and become a top 15 team so they can qualify for NCAAs. I don't think 2 SCIAC teams get Pool C bids this year, so therefore it's either the Hens or Redlands. PP is playing at home and with a lot of confidence right now, and if you look at the rest of their schedule, this is one of their best chances for an upset. PP can't come out nervous because I believe doubles is the strength of both teams. If the Tigers come out firing, they have the potential to break PP's spirit and walk away with an easy win. I expect an emotional, grinding match that results in a Trinity win. Pomona-Pitzer still doesn't have that signature win over the past couple years and because of that, I can't pick them against a team of this caliber. I think this will be the best quarterfinal.

In the 4-5 match, we have surprising Kenyon against Whitman. As far as what each team is trying to prove, see the previous paragraph. So far, I don't know if anyone not from Kenyon would have expected the Lords to be sitting at #7 in the country. They have played great tennis, and have certainly proved me wrong about their preseason ranking of 15. They are the favorite in this match and have been rock solid so far this season, but anything can happen. Similar to PP, Whitman is a team looking for a breakthrough. I often get on WC about how they falter against higher ranked teams. Although these 2 have several ranking spots between them, I think they have similar strengths and I expect a good match. A Whitman win could really throw the rankings into a tailspin since Kenyon stands at #7. Whitman has been looking for their ticket out of the California regional, and this may very well be their only opportunity to do that this season. If they win this match, they probably find themselves in the top 10 in the country and may head home with only their conference matches left to play. It's a big opportunity, but they have to really want it and rise to the occasion. These 2 played in the SH first round several years ago with Kenyon winning and beating CMS in the next round. I don't expect a repeat of that, but I do expect Kenyon to win a fairly comfortable 6-3. If they play the way they played against CMU and Chicago, winning will take care of itself.

The structure of this tournament has the semifinals on Friday afternoon directly after the quarters. As if CMS and Emory needed an advantage. Not only are they the better teams, but they will have much easier quarterfinals than their opponents. I don't foresee CMS having any problem with either Kenyon or Whitman, and I think at worst they come away with a 6-3 win. They may use their depth and rest some of their starters in the morning match. The bottom half semifinal could be a little trickier for Emory. When I say I thought Trinity had the best doubles lineup in the country, I didn't just make it up. They didn't play well at Indoors, but everyone, including Browning and his team, know that the Tigers are dangerous. The Trinity team crushed the Emory team in the fall and Trinity also has the best 2 team in the country. Emory is vulnerable in doubles as Wash U showed in Indoors and even though a Pottish/Egan combo looks great on paper, Trinity may be just as good at 3. The bottom line is the Tigers need a doubles sweep to win. Fitness will be an issue and because of that, I like Emory to win 6-3. Trinity matches up well with the Eagles and can win, but they'd need a massive effort from the bottom of their singles lineup and in doubles.

In the final round, I expect Whitman and Pomona-Pitzer for 5th, Trinity and Kenyon for 3rd and Emory and CMS for the title. In the 5th place match, this is more important for PP than it is for Whitman. PP is competing for a Pool C bid and this is not a match they can afford to lose because it would be a dagger in the heart to their tournament chances. Whitman won a hard fought match last year so PP is looking for some revenge, but it may come down to who is less deflated after losing a winnable 1st round match. I like Pomona on their home courts, but I expect a very close result. The Hens will realize that they need it more and by the 3rd match of the tournament I don't think either team will be nervous or anxious. Again, this would be a nice win for Whitman, but it is absolutely crucial for PP. The 3rd place match is a no brainer on paper. These 2 met in last year's Sweet 16 with Trinity winning 5-2. Trinity has their whole team back and Kenyon lost 4 starters. However, as I've said, Kenyon is playing at a much higher level than anyone expected so I expect them to give the Tigers a very hard time. I think Trinity will have a bit too much, but conditioning could play a role. Kenyon may not spend a ton of energy in a loss to CMS, but Trinity could have a long one with Emory. I like the Tigers to win 5-4 or 6-3, but I've underestimated Kenyon this whole season and I'm aware I may be doing it again.

The probable final and biggest match of the season to this point should be Emory and CMS. It's interesting that all 3 of the top teams in the country come into this year with a chip on their shoulder. Amherst got crushed in 2 consecutive national finals, Emory blew a 3-0 lead in last year's NCAA quarters and CMS blew 7 match points to send them to the national final. All of these teams are hungry to prove something and I think they are all very focused. These 2 have contrasting styles as Emory possesses an amazing top of the lineup and CMS has unmatched depth. I am sure that Alex Lane is a great player, but I can't pick against Pottish at the moment. I don't think CMS has anyone who can compete with Chris Goodwin at #2 and that forces CMS to win 5 of the 7 remaining matches. For the Stags to win, I think they may need a doubles sweep. Colin Egan is a clutch #3 and the Eagles have a hidden gem in Nick Szczurek who may be one of the best 4s in the country. I see Emory potentially taking the top 4 spots. If they can put a point on the board in doubles, I really like Emory's chances in this. That being said, Wash U showed that Emory is quite vulnerable in doubles, and with CMS playing on their home courts, a doubles sweep is very possible. The Stags should have the edge at the bottom of the lineup, but I'm picking Emory 5-4 in this match. I believe Browning has his guys very focused and fit after last year's disappointment, and it's just too tough to deal with the top 2 players in the country. CMS can win this match, but I'm impressed with the top two thirds of Emory's lineup and I think it's enough to get them a win on the road.

Mary Wash's Rough Start and The Big Picture

For those of you who haven't heard, Mary Washington began their California swing with an 8-1 loss to Pomona-Pitzer and a 7-2 loss to Whittier.

The Eagles scheduled 2 back-to-back matches and they clearly underestimated the Whittier Poets, projected to finish #5 in the SCIAC. I really thought Mary Washington had turned the corner when they got that win over Cal Lutheran. I think we now know that the Cal Lutheran team that showed up on Saturday at Indoors was not the same team that showed up on Friday at Indoors. The Eagles see CMS on Thursday and Redlands on Saturday to finish their trip. I'm interested to see how they fair on Saturday against the Bulldogs in a match that has traditionally been very close. Whittier doesn't play a stacked schedule, but they do have Vassar in a week and then the top SCIACs as well. They already lost to Pomona-Pitzer in an 8-1 rout and my guess is they caught a beaten down and demoralized Mary Wash team, similar to the Cal Lu team that Mary Wash played. With this win, it would be tough to keep them out of the top 25 though. The ranking committee has quite a task in front of them and I'll be interested to see what they come up with for Thursday. I thought the Eagles would come out prepared against PP after losing last year's match, but the Hens always give their best and are well coached. PP, unlike Whittier, plays a stacked schedule, and we will find out how good they really are as soon as next weekend. They open their own Stag-Hen invitational against Trinity (TX) and could have potential opponents such as Vassar, Whitman, Kenyon and Emory in the tournament. After last night, I think they are a legitimate Pool C contender. They have a veteran team who is hungry to get back in the tournament and this could be their year. I want to pose a question and look at a string of match results to lead me into my next point. If Pomona-Pitzer played Mary Washington tomorrow in Fredericksburg indoors, who would win? Even after having last night's information, I'd still be tempted to pick Mary Wash in that match. This Mary Wash team is no pushover. Even after their first 2 matches, they give a very good Trinity (TX) team all they could handle in a pretty tight 6-3.

Pomona-Pitzer beat Mary Washington 8-1. Mary Washington beat Cal Lutheran 5-4. Carnegie Mellon beat Cal Lutheran 5-4. Cruz beat Carnegie Mellon 5-4. Wash U beat Cruz 5-4. In a way this reminds me of 2008, when the top 16-18 teams in the country could all beat each other on any given day. This year with the information we have so far, I think there are two groups of teams: the top 3 and everyone else. I don't see anyone beating Herst, CMS and Emory besides each other. After that, it's possible that there is not a large gap between #4 and #20. No one has stepped up to the plate as a #4 that can challenge the top 3, but we haven't seen Midd, Williams or Hopkins yet. Wash U gave Emory a tough time but I don't see them truly challenging the top 3. Things could really get thrown into disarray if Mary Wash takes out Redlands Saturday and then the Bulldogs start beating people. Everything is just such a mess right now, when I first heard these results, I started asking a bunch of questions. In 3 weeks, we will have a lot more information and should be able to sort out the pretenders from the contenders. Every match is vitally important for the Pool C teams and you then have to root for the teams that you beat. There aren't a lot of results in yet, but we could technically see Pomona-Pitzer at #11 or #12 in the rankings on Thursday. I think they should be more like 14 or 15. I don't even want to try to take a crack at rankings right now because there aren't enough results. I think the thing to take from all of these early season matches is that we may be in for a great season where anyone can beat anyone else and every team always has to be looking over their shoulder because they have a target on their back. The Eagles have a chance for redemption Saturday. It's just strange to see them lose like they did, but maybe Pomona-Pitzer has really developed and is ready to contend for the top 10 in the country. Things are so wide open at the moment, there's no reason they can't do it. We will see what happens over the next few weeks and I'll take another look at "the big picture" then.

Brief Weekend Preview Feb 25-27

Several matches are happening this weekend, but there are 4 which I'd like to mention because I think they are fairly significant. A team I haven't talked much about is Gustavus, and they will be in competitive D3 action for the first time this season when they take on Chicago. The Maroons are much more talented and should be able to win handily, but the Gusties have an opportunity to make a statement that they are back with a good showing. Chicago took care of a weak Kzoo team last weekend and now they face a similar foe in Gustavus. I expect the Gusties to be slightly stronger than they were last year now that Coach Valenti has a year under his belt, but I don't expect them to be any match for Chicago this weekend. Also note that Gustavus takes on DePauw Sunday, so looking at the results of those matches may allow us to compare the strength of Chicago and DePauw. Next we have a conference rivalry between Vassar and Skidmore. Although this match isn't all that important on the national scene, it's hugely important for these 2 teams as this rivalry runs very deep. The winner of this will get a leg up in the Liberty League and will most likely find themselves ranked in the next ITA poll. It's important for Skidmore to bounce back after a rough season last year, but equally as important for new Vassar coach John Cox to begin to establish a dynasty in the conference so he can build his program into a national power.

Third we have Cal Lutheran versus Pomona-Pitzer in the Kingsmen's first match without Nick Ballou. I'm interested to see how the Kingsmen respond in this. This is a huge match for PP to get a win on their Pool C resume and one they desperately need so they can potentially avoid the #4 seed in the conference tournament. They could use the confidence and this match would take them into the top 20 in the country. I'm not completely sure what to expect of Cal Lu from an effort standpoint, so we'll see how they fair. These 2 both played Brandeis in the past few days with Cal Lu w/Ballou winning 6-3 and PP winning 8-1 after a doubles sweep. I think this could be a big opportunity for the Hens and I expect them to come out with a win against a depleted and reeling CLU squad. The loser of this is in huge trouble when it comes to making NCAAs.

The main event this weekend is the next chapter in the rivalry between Carnegie Mellon and Kenyon. These 2 have played some great matches over the past 3 years and despite not being in the same conference or region, they have become great rivals with a mutual respect for each other. Kenyon defended their home court early in the season against Chicago, but this CMU team is much more focused and disciplined, meaning the Lords will need to raise their game to win. CMU certainly has the talent edge and they have the opportunity to really make a statement that they are a top 10 team who should be taken seriously this year. If they can be mentally tough and win in a hostile environment, they will have just about clinched an NCAA berth. This could potentially be a huge match for NCAA seeding and hosting, so even though its not a must win for either team, it's a result that we will come back to later in the season for sure. Kenyon seems to be very confident so far this season and they've had some quality wins, but this is by far their toughest D3 test of the spring. I think they need to play excellent doubles to win this match, but I like a more experienced CMU team to win a close one. If the Lords can weather the storm early and remain even deep into the match, they can win. This match is CMU's for the taking if they are focused and want it, and I think they leave Ohio with a huge win on Saturday.

2011 Team Preview #21: Pomona-Pitzer

Ramsey Bernard

Coach: Ben Belletto, 8th Season
Location: Claremont, California
Conference: SCIAC
2008 Ranking: 30
2009 Ranking: 28
2010 Ranking: 20
2011 Projected: 20

Pomona-Pitzer, similar to Whitman, is a team at the top of the 3rd tier of teams looking to break into the 2nd tier. They also happen to be my third victim of the NCAA selection process. Coach Belletto should be commended for what he's done with this program, taking them 10 spots higher over the past 2 years and making them a very tough team to play because you know they will always fight until the end. I really have no evidence to back this up, but I have a feeling P-P is going to plateau for the next several years and stay in the 20-25 range. I don't see how they can really move up with the stringent admissions standards of the college, but they are still a good enough team to always be ranked and get some wins against other top 30 teams. They use the strategy of stacking their schedule with the top teams in the country in an attempt to improve, but the only thing it's accomplished over the past 3 years is having them miss the tournament. This is a good program that is hoping to become a great program, but you can't become a great program without actual results. When I say actual results, I mean big wins in important matches. There is always speculation, and I take some of the blame for it, that the Hens are going to knock off a powerhouse when we least expect it. Their biggest win the past 3 years has been an early season victory against a weak Mary Washington team last year that got them as high as 17 in the country. I know they work hard, but that's nothing to write home about. I don't see their breakthrough coming for quite a while, but maybe 2011 will prove me wrong. They've got experience as well as depth, and almost their whole team back from last year. They've got one of the best players in the West in Tommy Meyer and one of the most underrated in Uday Singh. One thing I commend P-P for is always being ready to play against top teams and giving their best. They are a target for teams below them and a warm-up match for teams above them, so they are in an awkward spot heading into matches more often than not. There are several matches that stand out to me on their schedule this year that will show us if they've improved since last year. Pay attention to matches against Brandeis, Mary Washington, Tyler, Trinity (CT) and Redlands. I think they should be pleased going 3 for 5 against those teams. Their schedule is stacked and they have chances, but the NCAA odds are against them. I really like this program and I hope they prove me wrong, but I'm not a true believer until I see some real results.

Weekend Recap: March 26-28

Alex Dombos, Kalamazoo

7 matches of note that I'll be discussing in this post. To begin, I'll say I'm quite disappointed that the Hopkins-Chicago match was cancelled on Friday because it was a match I was looking forward to. Chicago doesn't have any tough matches until UAAs so they will hope that their Pool C competitors beat up on each other. Now, moving on to the Friday matches we had Trinity (CT) wrapping up their spring break at Pomona-Pitzer. I said this was a do or die match for both teams as far as NCAAs are concerned and the Bantams came out on top with an easy victory. If they are losing to Trinity (CT) in this fashion, I don't think the Hens are top 20 material. They showed promise early in the season but weren't able to keep up the level of the Mary Wash match. Another year where P-P will fall victim to the poor NCAA selection process. Trinity (CT) stayed alive, but just like last year, they now need a win over a top 3 NESCAC team (possibly more than 1), if they want to make the tournament.

The Midd-CMS match Friday had a lot on the line, most importantly the #1 ranking in the country. Midd continued their incredible play and came away with a fairly routine 7-2 victory. The Panthers will sit at #1 in the ITA rankings on Tuesday and they look to continue their domination in conference play. An undefeated regular season for Middlebury would certainly be an impressive feat. Their weaknesses were supposed to be the bottom of the lineup and doubles and these were both strengths on their trip. If you can rest your 3 and 4 and still win 4 singles against Redlands, you are a very good team. They look untouchable at this moment and if they continue this level, then they will be national champions. CMS needs to start preparing for the Cal Lu match in 2 weeks because this could determine the host institution for the NCAA Regional.

I didn't think Saturday would be all that competitive, but we had three matches won by a 5-4 score, including one of the biggest upsets of the season. Cruz was reeling entering their match with Redlands on Saturday and I felt the Bulldogs would be ready to go because they knew they needed a win like this to get back into the NCAA hunt. Cruz just dominated and got back on track. They won't see any D3 competition until the NCAA tournament, but we know they will be training hard. The Slugs know they have a lot of ground to make up if they want to come out of the West Regional playing on the road. As for Redlands, they just aren't the same team that they've been the past few seasons. They lost some key players and weren't able to recover. They aren't completely out of it yet but the future doesn't look bright this season. The other fairly lopsided match was Hopkins over Washington & Lee. I expected Hopkins to win easily and they did, once again securing their top 10 ranking. W&L needs to regroup after their in-conference loss and get ready to play HSC again in their conference tournament.

We also had three competitive matches Saturday. I expected Carnegie Mellon to crush Mary Washington, but they continue to struggle in doubles. I believe they have played 6 top 25 teams this year and they have been down 2-1 after doubles all 6 times. They've come back to win 3 of those times but losing doubles over and over will catch up with you. That being said, they dominated at the bottom of the singles lineup which is also Mary Wash's strength. I don't think the outcome was ever really in doubt despite the 5-4 score. Mary Wash has to be worried now after Salisbury's big win this weekend. I don't think the Eagles have another gear and at this moment it seems like they won't win their conference. The last two matches of note took place at Salisbury. Kalamazoo finished their spring break trip with two matches against Salisbury and Newport. I was following live stats for the morning match and Salisbury jumped out to an early doubles lead and never let up. They ended up winning 5-4 with #4 singles being the clincher when the match was tied 4-4. I don't know if I've said this before, but I hate results like this. It's a huge flaw of the 9 point system. Kalamazoo wins this match 5 years ago, but again that's just the way things are. This result was important not only for these teams, but it was felt across the country. I didn't take Salisbury seriously after they got crushed by a short-handed Bowdoin team, but I forgot that the Sea Gulls are always very tough on their home courts. Now we have Chicago and DePauw with losses to Kalamazoo, and therefore they should both move behind Bowdoin in the rankings. This pushes Chicago out of the tournament at the moment, even though they've been winning. Kalamazoo was looking really good, but I'm doubting them after this result. I think Salisbury could move into the top 15 on Tuesday. In one of the weirder results I've seen, Kzoo beat Newport 5-4 later in the day. Newport was without one of their top players and Kzoo was able to pull out a win to save themselves from another loss.

3 Friday Previews

Conrad Olson, Middlebury

Trinity (CT) @ Pomona-Pitzer

This is a match between two teams that desperately need a win. Pomona-Pitzer only has one quality win on their resume and Trinity (CT) lost to their rival in a match that they really needed to win. The loser of this match can kiss the NCAA tournament goodbye. Both of these teams need to start producing quickly if they want to be in the tournament and that starts tomorrow. If Pomona-Pitzer is going to win this match, it has to be in doubles. Trinity (CT) hasn't looked all that sharp in doubles this week and I think this is arguably P-P's strength. They will be pumped up on their home courts and I think it's very possible that the Hens can win 2 of 3 doubles. Things turn in Trinity's favor when singles start. I think the middle of the lineup will definitely go in favor of Trinity. The top two spots and bottom two spots both can go either way, but I'd consider Trinity a slight favorite at 1 and 2. 5 and 6 are both tough to call. I think the Bantams will come out on top in this match because they have too many good singles players. 6-3 Bantams tomorrow.

Chicago @ Johns Hopkins

Kalamazoo beat Chicago 7-2. Johns Hopkins beat Kalamazoo 8-1. Easy win for Hopkins tomorrow? Not so fast, my friend. The Maroons have been playing good tennis this week in a trio of 6-3 wins against quality opponents. They will be in top form tomorrow to face a top 10 team. All that being said, I think Chicago may be in over their heads tomorrow. Hopkins is an excellent team who seems to also be in great form after a trouncing of NCW highlighted by doubles sweep. Hopkins will also be playing on their home courts and I think they are the better team. In doubles, I think Chicago is lucky to get 1 point. They have a decent chance at 3, but the top 2 spots clearly favor Hopkins. In singles, Zhang hasn't been great lately but his team really needs him tomorrow. Chicago is probably also a favorite at 6, but besides those I think Hopkins has too much game. I'll take Hopkins in a 7-2 victory tomorrow but I think most of the matches will be competitive.

Middlebury @ CMS

I thought Midd made a statement crushing Cruz the other night but CMS goes and does the same thing in even more convincing fashion. This will be a war between two outstanding teams and national title contenders. The matches are extremely interesting. CMS needs to use their home court to their advantage, particularly in doubles, because Midd is so strong in singles. Another important thing is that CMS has to not have a letdown after such a huge win against Cruz. I'm sure they were so ready for that match and it's tough to do that two days in a row. They will need to bring that same intensity if they want to have a chance to beat Middlebury. I think a Midd win tomorrow will put them at #1 in the country in the rankings next week. A CMS win would give that title to CLU. Looking at the matches, Midd is a pretty sure thing at #1 doubles. 2 and 3 are close, but I feel that both favor CMS on their home court, especially after their dominance against Cruz. Singles is very tough to call. I like Midd at 3 and 4. I think the Panthers have the best 3 and the best 4 in the country. CMS probably has an edge at 5. This would put things at 3-3 with 3 matches remaining. 6 is tough to call and I like Peters in a close one against Erani. He beat him in the fall. Lim and Lee at 2 could determine the outcome of the match. I think Midd will win 5-4 and this will come down to the wire.

Weekly Thoughts March 8-12

The week kicked off with UT-Tyler starting their season against a Pomona-Pitzer team that was fresh off a huge win against Mary Washington. The Hens were able to hang on for a 5-4 win in what was a very tight match. UT-Tyler got absolutely destroyed by Cal Lutheran later in the week, and this was the Kingsmen's only big match this week. I get the following info from these results. I think Pomona-Pitzer's win against Mary Wash was a bit of a fluke and my guess would be that they were pumped up on their home courts in doubles and the Eagles weren't adjusted to outdoor tennis. Mary Wash beat Redlands who went on to beat Trinity (TX) so I think the Eagles will be on the border of the top 20. Pomona-Pitzer probably sits between 20 and 25. UT-Tyler is a 25-30 team and they are slightly worse than Pomona-Pitzer. Cal Lutheran is looking very strong and I'm really look forward to their match with Trinity (TX) on Monday.

Carnegie Mellon had 3 big matches this week and they did well in my opinion. They dropped 2 of the doubles to Redlands but came back to take the match after dominating singles. Their second match was a loss to CMS. I was expecting a bit of a down year for the Stags this year but this certainly proved to be incorrect after two very impressive results from this week. The Stags are a national championship contender in my mind and these two results alone have made a believer out of me. It's just unfortunate they won't be hosting nationals again. In a match that i was really looking forward to, CMU beat Trinity (TX) 5-4. We don't have a box score at the moment but I'm sure it came down to the wire. These are two evenly matched teams but I think CMU proved they belong in the top 10 in the country.

Trinity (TX) didn't pass their first 3 tests, but they still have 2 more opportunities to redeem themselves. They got crushed by CMS and I am attributing their Redlands loss to just being tired after two difficult matches. I think they are a better team than Redlands but this could certainly hurt Trinity (TX)'s NCAA chances. Both of the SCAC big fish have had tough losses in the past week and we could see both of them out of the top 15 in the rankings. Trinity (TX) desperately needs a win against Cal Lu or Bowdoin to get their confidence back and more importantly stay alive Pool C.

In the only match of the week between top 10 teams, Wash U edged Kenyon 5-4. Apparently, the singles were played first and #1 doubles was ultimately the decider in the match. This was a very close contest and what i get from this result is Kenyon could potentially be a top 5 team. They can beat anyone on any given day. I was disappointed to see the wash U-NC Wesleyan match cancelled. We have to wait a bit longer to see how strong NCW is.

Monday Thoughts and Tuesday Preview

Eric Shulman, CNU

I spoke with several sources about their thoughts on the CLU-Redlands match and most of them gave me the same conclusion that I came to. Redlands will probably win a close one. This proved not to be the case and Cal Lu pulled quite an upset, really shaking things up on the national scene. The poll to the right shows that most people viewed Redlands as a real contender this year but maybe this isn't the case. However, I do see players missing for the Bulldogs when I look at the box score. No Reading, but he hasn't been around all spring and no Dahl, who is supposed to be their best freshman. This definitely could have changed the match, but take nothing away from CLU because they deserve the win. They nearly swept doubles and I thought that 1 point for Redlands could be important. CLU took the top 2 and Redlands took the bottom 2, but the middle is where CLU won this match. My hat goes off to CLU's middle of the lineup as well as their 3 doubles team. A great win for the Kingsmen and they should be moving into the top 20 now. This is definitely a result that other potential Pool C teams should love.

In the other surprise of the day, Pomona-Pitzer rebounded from the CLU loss and took down a young Mary Washington team. I was expecting the Eagles to win this but once they were swept in doubles, it was nearly impossible for them win. What happened to UMW today is what we thought would happen, they can't win at the top of the lineup. The depth is clearly there, they are just lacking that top player. Once they got down in doubles, they just get steamrolled at 1 and 2 and the match is over. UMW did a good job making the score look respectable, but they needed to be on top in doubles. This was a much needed win for a great program. P-P has struggled for a couple years and this is a promising start to their season. They have to play another beatable ranked team in a week and that 6-3 loss to CLU looks pretty good after today. The Eagles need to bounce back and they have two great chances on Thursday and Sunday. I think UMW needs one of those wins for their confidence or it could be another very long season. Granted, this is their first match outdoors so a rough day can be expected.

Tomorrow, CNU travels to Carnegie Mellon. The week before spring break usually means exams, and at Carnegie Mellon which is infamous for its difficult schoolwork, this could mean no sleep and very little tennis. CNU better hope this is the case because it's their only chance for a win. I think there's a couple spots CNU can win, but unless Carnegie doesn't show up, this won't be all that close. Theoretically, CNU could win 2 of the doubles, but I'd call CMU is the favorite in all 3. I'd also consider CMU the favorite at every singles spot besides 1. I'm calling a 7-2 tomorrow and I don't think the bottom of the lineup will be all that close. Newport needs to hope their opponents are having a very bad day.

Season Preview #6: Pomona-Pitzer

General Team Discussion - A team similar to Denison who has found themselves consistently in the 20-30 range for the past couple years. I think recruiting is the major issue for P-P, they just aren't getting the players of other top D3 schools. I find this a bit odd because of its amazing location and academic reputation. Unless you are Santa Cruz you really can't compete in the top tier without pulling in top recruits. That doesn't mean this isn't a very good team. They have the luxury of playing a very tough schedule so their players are battle tested by the end of the season. Last year they finished 4th in the SCIAC, but had a few flashes of brilliance giving both Tyler and Redlands a hard time. I expect them to edge out Cal Lu this year but they are still a very distant 3rd behind CMS and Redlands. This is overall a very good program and Coach Belletto does an outstanding job with his players. I think they are a long shot for NCAAs and beating Redlands and CMS back to back days to win the conference is nearly impossible. I would expect a finish between 20-25 this season for P-P and I think this will continue until they step up their recruiting.

Where They'll Win - Meyer should be an NCAA Singles Qualifier and can be competitive with the best in the country at the top singles spot. He wasn't in every match last year maybe due to some injury issues so hopefully he can stay healthy. They have other returning starters who could see action in the 2-3-4 spots so they should be fairly strong in the top half of the lineup. Their 2 and 3 doubles also seemed to be strong for most of the year last year so I expect some wins for P-P in the bottom of doubles.

Where They'll Lose - Not sure who is going to fill in at the bottom of the singles lineup so this is a probably weak spot. They have a few freshmen on the roster so seeing one of them in the 5 or 6 spot wouldn't be a surprise. They have yet to come up with a doubles team that can consistently win against tough competition so I would expect 1 doubles to be a position that they rarely win against a brutal schedule. If they can fix this hole at the top of the doubles lineup I think this could potentially turn into a top 20 team.

Schedule Analysis - A big conference match early against Cal Lutheran the weekend of Indoors. They lost this match last year so we will see if they can turn the tables. Another good test in early March against Mary Washington. Another match I'd keep an eye on is a March 20th battle against Whitman. The Squirrels are supposed to be slightly worse than P-P, so this is an out-of-conference match that will really test the Hens. A tough late season match against Redlands should let P-P know how in form they are heading into the SCIAC Tournament.

#25 Pomona-Pitzer at Cal Lutheran Match Preview

1. Taylor/Singh vs. Wetterholm/Hunt
2. Friedman/Meyer vs. Lassila/Karsant
3. Bernard/Groth vs. Culpepper/Giuffrida

1. Tommy Meyer vs. Andrew Giuffrida
2. Cameron Taylor vs. Paul Wetterholm
3. Nick Tagliarino vs. Forrest Hunt
4. Uday Singh vs. Ryan Lassila
5. Alex Groth vs. John Karsant
6. Grant Friedman vs. Jordan Culpepper

A huge early season SCIAC match that has big time implications on the 20-30 range in the national rankings. We have two evenly matched teams all the way through the lineup. Predictions will be very difficult but I'll give it my best shot. Cal Lutheran is an overlooked team who took 2 of 3 doubles against CMS only three weeks ago. I have to give the edge in doubles to Cal Lutheran for that reason and I would expect them to win 2 of 3 on their homecourt with a sweep being possible. Pomona-Pitzer should quickly even things up in singles and I would expect them to win at the top 3 spots. After that things get interesting. The 4-5-6 matches will be very hard to predict. I would expect Pomona-Pitzer to win at least one of them resulting in a 5-4 victory for PP.

Interview with Ben Belletto, Head Coach of Pomona-Pitzer

I had a chance to talk with Coach Belletto about his team's upcoming match with Cal Lutheran as well as his program in general. He gave me some very good and comprehensive answers...

D3Tennis: How have you done against Cal Lutheran the past few years and what do you expect from them this year? Is this a big match for your team?

BB: We’ve gone back and forth with Cal Lu the past few years, though they got us last year. They’re a good program and I don’t think they always get the credit they deserve. Coach Gennette does a great job year in and year out. My team is very young. Typically we’ll have four freshmen in the starting lineup, so every match is a huge learning experience. I expect them to fight for every ball, every point. This is a big match for us, but every match is big. I don’t want to be one of those teams that plays up or down to their opponent. Our preparation and focus is the same regardless of opponent. I am very much looking forward to this weekend’s match.

D3Tennis: You split singles with Redlands in a 6-3 loss a few weeks ago. How did you feel about your team's effort and performance in that match?

BB: Against Redlands, we battled hard in singles. We were tight and nervous in doubles. It was our first match of the season, and right now we’re not as sharp as we need to be in dubs. At the same time, Redlands is a great team and they always play great doubles. In singles, even those matches we lost were competitive. We had a frosh in his first dual match of his career take the former Redlands #1 7-5 in the first; it’s a piece to build off of for sure. We will be a better team in all facets later this spring, but for what it was, we were competitive in that match.

D3Tennis: Why do you choose to play such a tough schedule? How do you feel this benefits your players?

BB: Well, first, it’s hard to say no. You have all of the best teams in the division and we have great facilities. We’ve been playing so many of these teams for so long that it becomes almost automatic. But the real reason is that we get better by playing the best. We become the best be competing with the best. I am lucky to be at a school that doesn’t measure my job security by wins and losses alone. I am driven by the processes of development and improvement. Looking at the past season, we had graduated 5 of our top 6 and were supposed to be in rebuilding mode. Cameron Taylor had played anywhere from 4-7 in our lineup in 2007. He improved because he faced great competition every day. From an admissions standpoint, Pomona is one of the toughest schools in the nation to get into. As a result, many of our guys have had less than extensive junior records. We are focused on development, and by playing such a tough schedule, we develop faster. At the end of the season, all of our guys know what it takes to be a championship team. Every year we are making this the best year in our program’s history. Every day, we have the opportunity to compete against the best.

D3Tennis: Obviously an NCAA bid will be tough to get this year with CMS in your conference. What are your team goals for the season?

BB: An NCAA bid will always be tough. That’s the way it goes, at least for now. Our team goals are always the same: Compete for a National Championship. We are always building and developing. We are always strengthening our foundation and developing our culture; always learning. I don’t get caught up in rankings and such, and I know how all of this works. In ‘07, we beat two of the five teams in the West regional, so there is much out of our control. We just go out every day and play. We play because we love tennis and love to compete. The NCAA part of it will take care of itself. Having CMS, Redlands, Cal Lu in our conference makes me a better, more dedicated coach. I wake up every morning burning to get out on the courts. We only focus on the matches in front of us, but we also know what it takes to get to Nationals. Can we beat CMS? I know how talented they are, but I’m a very competitive person and always believe I can win. I think that we CAN beat anyone on any given day. Whether we make that happen, I cannot say. We will do everything within our power to make that a reality. We have a very young team, and as the season progresses, so will they. Let’s take it one day at a time.

D3Tennis: What do you think it will take to get your team back to the top 20 in the country?

BB: D-III has become so deep and there are so many great programs out there, many of which we’ll never get the opportunity to compete against. Like I said before, we will focus on what we can control and let the rest take care of itself. We need to focus on getting better every day, and in the end, if there’s a little number next to our name, great. If not, we’ll move on. I work very hard to put us in a position to compete with the best in the country, but who doesn’t? Our guys work their tails off both in the classroom and on the courts. In the end, rankings mean very little in terms of the overall experience. I’ve had just as much of an incredible time coaching when we were unranked as when we were ranked. I love having the opportunity to win, to be the best. Right now, with the team that we have, and the group of guys we have, we have that opportunity. Our schedule is littered with opportunities.


Thanks a lot to Coach Belletto for taking the time to do this and check back later today for a preview of the Pomona-Pitzer at Cal Lutheran match tomorrow.