NCW Tops Hopkins and Tuesday Preview

On Monday, Bates took down Kalamazoo in a close 5-4 that came down to the last match at #2 singles. Good win for Bates, but this shows me for sure they are ranked properly around 23. Another solid Bates team who may finish 5th in the NESCAC; a pretty typical year for them. I know Kzoo is a work in progress, but they are really down this year. It was good for them to win 4 matches against a top 25 team, but I just find it disheartening how much this team has dropped off and no one seems to care. They will extend their conference winning streak, but they aren't a serious threat to do anything in NCAAs. Thinking about it, they probably head into the GLCA tournament in a couple weeks as the #6 seed, which is shocking given that they were top 15 just a year ago.

Cruz beat Trinity (CT) 8-1 on a cold day in NorCal with Trinity only winning at 1 singles in 3 sets. Good win for the Slugs as they head to Texas. The biggest match of the day saw NC Wesleyan defeating Hopkins 5-4 in a match that was really never close. Awesome job by NCW, they clearly learned from Indoors and pulled off this win playing without their #1 Rinat Khussainov. The scores from the bottom of the lineup were surprising, as NCW just dominated. They got the point they needed in doubles and I think they are just in the head of Hopkins at this point. We'll see how things play out, but I wouldn't be surprised if these 2 are in the same position as last year, competing for an NCAA Final 8 bid against each other. If you're Hopkins, it's one thing to beat up on teams you are clearly better than, but to go on the road and beat a team who's just as good as you takes a lot of will, and NCW just out-competed the Bluejays today. The mental toughness is still lacking in big matches, and Hopkins has upcoming chances to turn it around. NCW doesn't have a serious test the rest of the season so I think they go into NCAAs as a team that people will overlook, which I'm sure they love. This was a big win for the Bishops and they are in a great spot right now because Hopkins may beat some people later in the season.

Super Tuesday tomorrow with 3 matches that should all be very competitive and 6 Pool C teams competing. The headline match of the day probably has the least on the line. Williams begins their D3 season against one of the hottest teams in the country, Pomona-Pitzer. Williams is looking to start well after last year's disappointing finish. This team is a year older now and I expect big things from them this year. That being said, I think this will be a difficult one for the Ephs. They aren't match tested and are playing on the road against a confident and battle-tested team. If Williams loses tomorrow, even something like 7-2, I don't think they should be alarmed. If they win, it's a great effort by them, but you can only expect so much of yourself this early in your season. I think Williams is talented enough to not have to worry about missing the NCAA tournament, but this match could potentially have big implications towards Williams getting a top seed in their NCAA regional and being able to avoid Middlebury or Amherst in the Sweet 16. Pomona-Pitzer is ranked 9th, but their NCAA fate is somewhat determined, so I think a win helps Williams more than it helps PP. Both teams should want to win, but Williams probably has slightly more to play for. I expect a very good match and I think a lot depends on Williams being able to hang in doubles, because that's typically where you are rusty if you haven't played much. I like PP in a close 5-4, but no one knows what to expect from Williams so the result is hard to gauge.

The other 2 matches both have huge implications for NCAAs. First the rescheduled match between Bowdoin and Cal Lutheran takes place in Thousand Oaks. Another note is that the Trinity CT-Cal Lu match has been rescheduled for Thursday. Cal Lu desperately needs this win if they want to stay in the NCAA hunt. Wins against Tyler and Whitman are nice, but not enough to put a team in the top 15 and have them qualify in the top 6 teams for Pool C. Cal Lu's Mary Wash loss now looks horrible and they somehow need to offset that with a significant win. This match would be that significant win. I think the Kingsmen match up well with Bowdoin and have a good chance in this, but they have to take a lead in doubles. They have to match Bowdoin's intensity, because I don't think they make NCAAs if they lose tomorrow. I know they have several remaining matches on their schedule, but I don't know if matches against Midd and Williams are realistic wins, and they may have to beat out Pomona-Pitzer or Redlands. The Trinity CT match on Thursday is big, but with the Bantams probably not being a serious top 20 team, this is the one Cal Lu needs. Giuffrida and Wilson have been great this season, but either Worley or Sousa needs to step up tomorrow and get a win in singles, because from all indications, Bowdoin is up 2-0 before the match starts with wins at 5 and 6 singles. Cal Lu needs a little magic, but they have been great at home the past few weeks. Cal Lu is 1-3 in 5-4 matches this season and I think they extend that to 1-4 tomorrow. CLU has a couple great players, but I don't know if they've got enough to beat a well-rounded team like Bowdoin. I wouldn't be that surprised if CLU wins, but I can't pick against the Polar Bears in this. I also didn't mention this is not a match Bowdoin wants to lose, because then they have to root for Cal Lu to beat a team like Redlands. Bowdoin wants to control their own destiny when it comes to making NCAAs, and a win tomorrow would really help.

The match I'm most looking forward to is Chicago and DePauw. These 2 have had some heated encounters over the years and I expect another one tomorrow. DePauw is 3-1 against Chicago over the past 5 seasons, but the Maroons won the most recent one last year in an easy 7-2 win on the road. This is a clash of styles, with the wildly talented underachieving Maroons against a very solid and disciplined DePauw. I'm not going to say lose and you don't make NCAAs, but the loser has a serious uphill battle the rest of the season. They both don't have a ton of remaining opportunities on their schedule, but whoever gets this win on their resume gets a huge boost toward making NCAAs. I really don't know who to pick in this because Chicago has been out of D3 competition for a couple weeks and we haven't seen much of DePauw yet. This is just about as close as you get to a must-win, because the loser would probably need a win over a team like Carnegie Mellon to have a shot at Pool C, and I don't know if either team has that in them. Surprisingly, these 2 haven't played very close matches over the past few years, but I expect a close one tomorrow. My gut tells me Chicago gets the win tomorrow, but again I expect it to come down to the wire. It should be a wonderful match, and hopefully the sportsmanship remains as great as the play because I know that's been an issue in the past when these 2 meet.

2011 Team Preview #28: Trinity (CT)

Anson McCook

Coach: Paul Assaiante, 15th Season
Location: Hartford, Connecticut
Conference: NESCAC
2008 Ranking: 13
2009 Ranking: 19
2010 Ranking: 14
2011 Projected: 22

Trinity (CT) has missed the tournament for 2 consecutive seasons and is obviously looking to get back to the success that they found during the 2008 season. This will probably be a tough year for the Bantams as they lost 2 of their top 4 from last year's team and I'm not sure if they found replacements. I heard last summer that they may be getting an international player who would step into the top of the lineup this Spring, but I'm not sure if that panned out. The same thing has done in the Bantams the past 2 years and that's the lack of an out of conference schedule. It's a problem that they have somewhat addressed for this season, but the problem is not totally cured. The last two seasons, the Bantams went to California, got a couple of wins, but not enough to mean anything, and then came home and lost to the top 3 teams in the NESCAC. The problem wasn't that they were a weak team, it's just that they didn't have any wins on their schedule to get them ranked high enough to qualify for Pool C. They added fellow Pool C competitor Redlands to their schedule, and this is a winnable match for them this year. At the top of their lineup, they still have former Middlebury starter Rich Bonfiglio, as well as senior Anson McCook, who is one of the most underrated players in the country. Their lack of depth will really hurt them though, and this is the difference between now and their 2008 team that was so strong. The thing to remember is they are only 3 years off entering the NESCAC tournament as the #1 seed, but that seems like a very long time ago for this program. They finished 14th last year, but it didn't really seem like they made much noise for the majority of the Spring until they won the NESCAC first round against a deflated Bowdoin team when both of them weren't really playing for anything. Their recruiting has not been up to par with the top 3 in NESCAC, or even Bowdoin for that matter. They have been dependent on transfers, as 3 of their top 4 from last year's team did not begin their college careers in Hartford. I don't really know what to make of this program in 2011, but I'm predicting it will be a rough year for them. Their in-season match against Bowdoin is one of my matches to watch and a must-win for Trinity. Other matches to watch are the previously mentioned Redlands match, Brandeis, Bates and Pomona-Pitzer. This is certainly not a top 15 team this year and I think they are a long shot for the top 20. This team is slipping, but they have to be careful to not slip too far.

Weekend Recap: April 23-25

UAA Champion Emory Eagles

A couple big results of note on Friday. The match that was scheduled for Sunday between Amherst and Trinity (CT) was moved until Friday due to poor weather being forecasted. Amherst was the favorite here but as I've stated over and over Trinity needs to make something happen if they want to make the tournament. Trinity had an opportunity but slipped as they lost a tiebreaker at 3 doubles to give Amherst the momentum going into singles. The Jeffs were too strong and came away with 4 easy singles wins to wrap up the match. Amherst has their chance at Middlebury next weekend so we will see if they can make some magic happen. It would be a big win for Amherst because as of now they are in line to play CMS or Wash U in the NCAA quarterfinals. Moving on, a very surprising result happened in the first round of the UAA tournament. Although Brandeis had some decent results earlier this season, they had just lost to 26th ranked MIT so I didn't consider them a real threat to the Maroons. Chicago jumped out to a lead after doubles and looked like they would run away with the match. Chicago's 1 William Zhang was unable to play and this pushed everyone up a spot for Chicago. This was bad news for Chicago and a 3rd set tiebreak win at #2 singles would prove to be the difference and give Brandeis the win. A tough end to a pretty good season for Chicago and they will miss the tournament once again after underachieving for the 3rd year in a row. A great win for a Brandeis program that looks to be on the rise. The biggest match of the day was the CAC final as Salisbury took on Mary Wash. Although the singles were highly contested, I was pretty sure Mary Wash would win after they took 2 of 3 doubles. They were playing without one of their best players and still managed to win. They just deserve to be in the tournament more than Salisbury. Look at the top 2 singles spots. You have freshman for UMW against senior for Salisbury and UMW takes both spots. Great stuff from the Eagles but Salisbury can't expect to win against good teams turning in performances like that. The Eagles win their 11th conference title in a row.

Three pretty big matches on Saturday with the first being a regular season NESCAC match between Bowdoin and Williams. I expected a competitive match but with Williams at home and needing a win, the outcome was not as I expected. Bowdoin isn't deep enough to play with Williams in singles or doubles and this showed as Williams won comfortably. The outcome was never in doubt. Willams partially solved their doubles woes in this match but their 2 and 3 teams need to keep up the good play. I don't think they have a combination that is effective at 1 and this could hurt them down the road. They've put themselves in good position to make the tournament after this win and probably will enter the NESCAC tournament as the #3 seed. The SCAC semifinal between DePauw and Rhodes I thought was a potential danger match for the Tigers. Rhodes struggled this season in doubles and that continued as DePauw got the doubles sweep. They still had to battle to win the match but chances were good that DePauw would win. In D3, you can't win if you're not winning in doubles and this is where Rhodes fell short all season. DePauw was tested but advanced to the championship to face Trinity (TX). The final match of the day was a top 10 clash between Emory and Carnegie Mellon. The doubles was closely contested but Emory took an expected 2-1 lead. I think CMU needed to get up in doubles if they wanted to win because of Emory's 2 big guns at the top of the singles lineup. Emory closed with 3 quick wins in singles and showed that they are playing well at the end of the season as always. This was stopped at 5-1 but I'm guessing it was probably headed for a 7-2. A dominant performance by Emory and they would face Wash U in a much anticipated final.

3 conference finals took place on Sunday and I'll run through each of the results.

ODAC

Washington & Lee entered the conference tournament in very unfamiliar territory: as the #2 seed and the underdog. The good news for the Generals is that they hosted the match and this was a big advantage for them. HSC played tough doubles and took a much needed 2-1 lead with wins at 1 and 2. In their regular season match, it was 2 wins in the bottom of the singles lineup that propelled HSC to a win. It looked like they only needed one of those this time around. For me, the turning point in this match was the victory for Hayden White at #1 singles. Moss is the heart of the HSC team and it's tough to watch your best player lose to a guy he's beaten twice this year. This win at the top of the lineup put W&L in control of the match and a comeback win at 4 singles all but sealed it for the Generals. They were dominant at both 5 and 6 and were able to win the match despite a loss at #2 singles. W&L brought the ODAC title back to Lexington and will be headed to the NCAA tournament. I think the better team won in this match and the Generals deserve the title.

SCAC

The UAA final was obviously a nerve-racking experience for both teams but I couldn't imagine something tougher than having to play with your season on the line against your biggest rival. The ODAC final also had this, but DePauw and Trinity (TX) are two teams that are so used to success, it's hard to think one of them won't be playing in the NCAA tournament. DePauw had a streak of 3 straight conference titles and last year DePauw knocked Trinity out of the NCAA tournament for the first time in many years. Trinity was out for revenge this year and they found it with some amazing doubles play. They surrendered only 11 games in a doubles sweep to put themselves in complete control of the match. DePauw looked like they would fight back and took the next 3 matches, but after being swept in doubles it's very difficult to complete the comeback. Trinity showed a lot of resiliency and got a 3 set win at 4th singles to seal the match. This win has to feel great for Trinity as they finally took back the conference title. DePauw has one last chance to qualify for the tournament but it would take a win over Wash U next weekend on the road. A great college match which will send Trinity (TX) back to the NCAA tournament.

UAA

In Wash U's last two victories over Emory they have swept the doubles and barely held on for a win. The way Emory has been playing, I felt the Bears may need another doubles sweep if they wanted to win. Pottish just owns Watts right now and Goodwin is untouchable at 2 singles. This is a huge advantage for Emory because Wash U basically needs to win 5 out of 7 matches and that's just not possible against a team as good as Emory. Emory got a shocking win at 1st doubles, which was the spot they lost the previous day. When Emory got the win at 3 doubles, you knew things weren't looking good for Wash U. Emory made the score 4-1 with quick wins at the top and Wash U closed the gap with a win at 3. All eyes turned to #4 singles, but Egan was able to complete a great comeback and win 7-5 in the 3rd to give Emory the UAA title after a one year hiatus. Emory also captured first sets at 5 and 6 singles so this match looked to be well on it's way to a 7-2 final score. A dominant performance from Emory and you could tell they really wanted this win. Wash U needs to regroup and get ready for DePauw this weekend. They hope to turn in a dominant performance before heading to NCAAs.

A Crucial Weekend

To date, I think this is the most important three day stretch of matches this season. Indoors has blockbuster matches, but this weekend has blockbuster matches as well as seasons on the line. There are 4 automatic bids to the tournament from major conferences on the line as well as two huge NESCAC clashes. We are also going to have two matches take place between top 7 teams. This is going to be a great weekend so let's take a look at the action.

I've had this match circled on my calendar since the beginning of the season and it's finally here. The CAC final between Salisbury and Mary Washington. Mary Wash holds a streak of 10 consecutive conference titles but this is probably the closest these two teams have ever been in both ability and ranking. The Eagles have had a terrible year but the one bright spot for them was a 7-2 win 3 weeks ago against Salisbury which knocked the Sea Gulls out of the top 20. Mary Washington is hosting this match but I'm sure both teams will be ready to play. After looking at the results from the last match, Salisbury knows where they need to improve. If Mary Wash can get ahead in doubles, I think they can cruise to victory. If Salisbury is up, I see this match coming down to the wire because another singles sweep by the Eagles is very unlikely. It's simple for both teams. Win and you go to the tournament or lose and your season is over. Live stats for the match will be at http://www.umweagles.com/sports/2010/4/23/MTEN_0423103939.aspx

Next on our list is a match taking place only a few hours away in Lexington, VA and it's a very similar situation. The season of both teams is on the line. Washington & Lee had a streak of 13 consecutive ODAC finals broken last year by their opponent, Hampden-Sydney. HSC is a pretty average team, but when they play W&L they become a much better team simply because of the rivalry. Whenever HSC plays a top 25 team they get trounced, but they always come to play against W&L and that's why this match will be great. Both teams have a natural dislike for the other and all of their matches come down to the wire. HSC should have 3 wins but they need to find those other 2 from the bottom of their singles lineup. I think W&L will manage to pull it out but this will be close as always.

Two NESCAC matches that I've had my eye on will be taking place this weekend. Home court traditionally helps a lot in NESCAC and both underdogs have the home court this weekend. On Saturday, #12 Williams looks to get their first quality win of the season against #13 Bowdoin. Bowdoin got crushed by Midd last weekend so they will be looking to rebound. This is close to do-or-die time for the Ephs as they need to start producing if they want to make the NCAA Tournament this year. Not making the tournament is unheard of for Williams tennis and unacceptable for a program filled with prized recruits. Bowdoin stands at 13 in the country and they've been doing good work all season without their star player and defending NCAA doubles finalist Oscar Pena. I think a win on Saturday would lock up the #5 spot in Pool C for Bowdoin. They would also avoid a 4-5 match in the first round of the NESCAC tournament. The second match takes place on Sunday with #8 Amherst traveling to take on Trinity (CT). Much like Williams, Trinity is in desperate need of a win and they will need to play their best tennis if they want to beat the Jeffs. Amherst is fresh off a 7-2 rout of Williams and Trinity hasn't done anything special this year. I think Trinity will come close but the Jeffs will be a little too deep. I'm going with the traditional powerhouses in both of these and taking Williams and Amherst to win.

In Arkansas, we have the SCAC tournament taking place and everyone has their eye on the potential final between #14 Trinity (TX) and #16 DePauw. Before we get to the final, DePauw will have to get past a tough Rhodes team, who's a real sleeper this year. I think Rhodes will challenge them, but DePauw should come out victorious. They have to be fresh for the biggest match of their season on Sunday so an extended match against Rhodes is not what they want. Despite some losses, I've been big on Trinity all season and I still am. This is a good and complete team. The thing that worries me about Trinity is that they haven't really been tested in over a month. Rhodes is a good team and a good win, but they aren't the quality of DePauw. On the other hand, DePauw is pretty fresh off the GLCA tournament where they battled Kenyon and Kalamazoo. I would expect DePauw to be more in form but I don't know if this is enough to trump Trinity's advantage in talent. Trinity is desperate to take back the conference title after DePauw has won it 3 consecutive years and I predict that Trinity will do just that this weekend.

The biggest event of the weekend will be the UAA tournament taking place in Pittsburgh. One can make an argument that the UAA is the strongest conference in the country this year with 3 teams in the top 7 in the country this year and a 4th at #15. The first semifinal on Saturday should have #2 Wash U playing against #15 Chicago. The Maroons gave Wash U all they could handle in an early season match but came up just short of what would have been the biggest win in the history of their program. Chicago has another chance to pull the upset but they won't have the element of surprise this time. The Bears have been playing well lately and Chicago hasn't seen any tough opponents in a while. I think Wash U should win in a convincing 8-1 or 7-2 victory. The other semifinal has #3 Emory taking on host and #7 Carnegie Mellon. CMU has been a pleasant surprise this year and many don't believe Emory is deserving of their #3 ranking. CMU matches up fairly well against the Eagles since depth is their strength and the Eagles weakness. I think CMU has the potential to take 3 of the singles, but that would mean they need to come up with 2 big wins in doubles. My guess is that Emory will win a close 6-3, but if CMU can jump on top in doubles this could get interesting. I'll have finals and 3-4 predictions on Saturday after the matches are set.

Weekend Recap: April 2-4

7 matches of note took place over the past three days which I'll discuss in this post. I'll provide a few thoughts on each of the results.

Bowdoin took out MIT 6-3 on Friday in a fairly competitive match. Both of Bowdoin's doubles victories were extremely close and if even one of those goes MIT's way, things could have been very interesting. I've heard Pena is done for the season and I don't know if it's true or not, but that certainly hurts Bowdoin. MIT is a tricky team with good depth that could pose problems for some higher ranked teams. I believe they deserve their top 30 ranking and this is certainly a team to watch in upcoming years. Bowdoin enters NESCAC play on a high note and if the tournament started tomorrow, they would be in. They really have to play their way out of it and I think that will be tough. Things are looking bright for the Polar Bears.

Rhodes was a sleeper coming into this year and we saw that they could play with the best in the country when they split singles in a 6-3 loss to Kenyon. Their doubles needs improvement and this showed once again today in a 6-3 loss to the 16th ranked Trinity (TX) Tigers. Trinity was able to win #1 and #2 doubles 8-0 and complete the sweep with an 8-6 at 3. Rhodes won 4 first sets to stay in the match but Trinity proved to be too strong at the top of the lineup. I think Rhodes could pose a potential threat to DePauw and Trinity in the conference tournament if they can improve doubles. They can play with the best in the country in singles but they can't afford to be down 2-1 or 3-0 every match.

I think Hampden-Sydney just gets pumped up to play Washington & Lee. They got trounced at home by Salisbury in a match that was never close. I expected Salisbury to win, but not like this. HSC is all about beating W&L and that's good, but they need to produce against other teams as well. Obviously they are a strong team, but this result certainly didn't show it. Salisbury reinforced their #14 national ranking in this match and they are playing great tennis heading into their Wednesday clash with Mary Washington.

I was quite surprised when Redlands jumped on top of CMS in doubles because I think this is a real strength for the Stags. Even with the 2-1 lead, I had a feeling CMS would win comfortably. I've referred to this many times before, but Redlands isn't a complete team this year. They don't have the top of the lineup and they also aren't winning with their depth, so there's just no way for them to compete with the teams they normally are competitive with. A tough year for the Bulldogs, but give credit to CMS who played great singles. They see Cal Lu in a week in what will be an absolute war. I expect a great match next Saturday from both teams, but CMS needs to watch themselves in doubles after their Saturday performance.

Vassar was undefeated going into their match at home against Trinity (CT) on Saturday although they hadn't faced a real test yet. Trinity (CT) is a strong team and they proved to have a little too much firepower in singles. This was a much needed win for Trinity (CT) who is still looking to jump Bowdoin and Chicago for an NCAA tournament spot. I like this result for both teams, but the thing that jumps out to me is that Trinity (CT) is still struggling in doubles. They aren't going to beat a Williams or Bowdoin if they keep losing doubles because those teams can match their firepower in singles. Vassar proved they are a good team who can knock off a top 15 opponent on the right day. They have a shot at Williams this upcoming weekend so we will see how they do.

I'm just as guilty as everyone else, but I'm pretty sure the majority has been wrong in the weekly poll almost every time. We had 57-41 in favor of Johns Hopkins as a prediction for Saturday. Not only did Hopkins lose, they didn't win a match. I read that Kenyon was down 7-4 at #3 dubs and came back to win and when this happened, the match was over because we knew Greenberg was getting a win. Hopkins has the ability to come back being down 2-1, but not 3-0. This was Kenyon's first big win of the spring and they did it in very convincing fashion. If they play like that every match, they can beat anyone in the country. We knew Hopkins had tough back-to-back matches and after I saw this result I was sure they would bounce back on Sunday.

Carnegie has been struggling with doubles over and over and they decided it was finally time for a change. Despite only flipping two of their players, it worked and they came out and swept Hopkins in three close matches to go up 3-0. Hopkins won 4 of 6 singles against CMU at Indoors, so I thought it was still a possibility that JHU could win. CMU played just as well in singles highlighted by a win at #1 singles to take the match 7-2. They proved that they too can beat anyone in the country on the right day and they deserve to be in the top 10. If they keep up the good doubles, they will be very tough to beat. Hopkins just had a rough weekend and needs to regroup. I think they will only drop to #10 so they are still in line to be a top seed in their region for NCAAs. What they can't afford is another loss to a team ranked below them and I have no doubt this is still an excellent team.

Weekend Recap: March 26-28

Alex Dombos, Kalamazoo

7 matches of note that I'll be discussing in this post. To begin, I'll say I'm quite disappointed that the Hopkins-Chicago match was cancelled on Friday because it was a match I was looking forward to. Chicago doesn't have any tough matches until UAAs so they will hope that their Pool C competitors beat up on each other. Now, moving on to the Friday matches we had Trinity (CT) wrapping up their spring break at Pomona-Pitzer. I said this was a do or die match for both teams as far as NCAAs are concerned and the Bantams came out on top with an easy victory. If they are losing to Trinity (CT) in this fashion, I don't think the Hens are top 20 material. They showed promise early in the season but weren't able to keep up the level of the Mary Wash match. Another year where P-P will fall victim to the poor NCAA selection process. Trinity (CT) stayed alive, but just like last year, they now need a win over a top 3 NESCAC team (possibly more than 1), if they want to make the tournament.

The Midd-CMS match Friday had a lot on the line, most importantly the #1 ranking in the country. Midd continued their incredible play and came away with a fairly routine 7-2 victory. The Panthers will sit at #1 in the ITA rankings on Tuesday and they look to continue their domination in conference play. An undefeated regular season for Middlebury would certainly be an impressive feat. Their weaknesses were supposed to be the bottom of the lineup and doubles and these were both strengths on their trip. If you can rest your 3 and 4 and still win 4 singles against Redlands, you are a very good team. They look untouchable at this moment and if they continue this level, then they will be national champions. CMS needs to start preparing for the Cal Lu match in 2 weeks because this could determine the host institution for the NCAA Regional.

I didn't think Saturday would be all that competitive, but we had three matches won by a 5-4 score, including one of the biggest upsets of the season. Cruz was reeling entering their match with Redlands on Saturday and I felt the Bulldogs would be ready to go because they knew they needed a win like this to get back into the NCAA hunt. Cruz just dominated and got back on track. They won't see any D3 competition until the NCAA tournament, but we know they will be training hard. The Slugs know they have a lot of ground to make up if they want to come out of the West Regional playing on the road. As for Redlands, they just aren't the same team that they've been the past few seasons. They lost some key players and weren't able to recover. They aren't completely out of it yet but the future doesn't look bright this season. The other fairly lopsided match was Hopkins over Washington & Lee. I expected Hopkins to win easily and they did, once again securing their top 10 ranking. W&L needs to regroup after their in-conference loss and get ready to play HSC again in their conference tournament.

We also had three competitive matches Saturday. I expected Carnegie Mellon to crush Mary Washington, but they continue to struggle in doubles. I believe they have played 6 top 25 teams this year and they have been down 2-1 after doubles all 6 times. They've come back to win 3 of those times but losing doubles over and over will catch up with you. That being said, they dominated at the bottom of the singles lineup which is also Mary Wash's strength. I don't think the outcome was ever really in doubt despite the 5-4 score. Mary Wash has to be worried now after Salisbury's big win this weekend. I don't think the Eagles have another gear and at this moment it seems like they won't win their conference. The last two matches of note took place at Salisbury. Kalamazoo finished their spring break trip with two matches against Salisbury and Newport. I was following live stats for the morning match and Salisbury jumped out to an early doubles lead and never let up. They ended up winning 5-4 with #4 singles being the clincher when the match was tied 4-4. I don't know if I've said this before, but I hate results like this. It's a huge flaw of the 9 point system. Kalamazoo wins this match 5 years ago, but again that's just the way things are. This result was important not only for these teams, but it was felt across the country. I didn't take Salisbury seriously after they got crushed by a short-handed Bowdoin team, but I forgot that the Sea Gulls are always very tough on their home courts. Now we have Chicago and DePauw with losses to Kalamazoo, and therefore they should both move behind Bowdoin in the rankings. This pushes Chicago out of the tournament at the moment, even though they've been winning. Kalamazoo was looking really good, but I'm doubting them after this result. I think Salisbury could move into the top 15 on Tuesday. In one of the weirder results I've seen, Kzoo beat Newport 5-4 later in the day. Newport was without one of their top players and Kzoo was able to pull out a win to save themselves from another loss.

3 Friday Previews

Conrad Olson, Middlebury

Trinity (CT) @ Pomona-Pitzer

This is a match between two teams that desperately need a win. Pomona-Pitzer only has one quality win on their resume and Trinity (CT) lost to their rival in a match that they really needed to win. The loser of this match can kiss the NCAA tournament goodbye. Both of these teams need to start producing quickly if they want to be in the tournament and that starts tomorrow. If Pomona-Pitzer is going to win this match, it has to be in doubles. Trinity (CT) hasn't looked all that sharp in doubles this week and I think this is arguably P-P's strength. They will be pumped up on their home courts and I think it's very possible that the Hens can win 2 of 3 doubles. Things turn in Trinity's favor when singles start. I think the middle of the lineup will definitely go in favor of Trinity. The top two spots and bottom two spots both can go either way, but I'd consider Trinity a slight favorite at 1 and 2. 5 and 6 are both tough to call. I think the Bantams will come out on top in this match because they have too many good singles players. 6-3 Bantams tomorrow.

Chicago @ Johns Hopkins

Kalamazoo beat Chicago 7-2. Johns Hopkins beat Kalamazoo 8-1. Easy win for Hopkins tomorrow? Not so fast, my friend. The Maroons have been playing good tennis this week in a trio of 6-3 wins against quality opponents. They will be in top form tomorrow to face a top 10 team. All that being said, I think Chicago may be in over their heads tomorrow. Hopkins is an excellent team who seems to also be in great form after a trouncing of NCW highlighted by doubles sweep. Hopkins will also be playing on their home courts and I think they are the better team. In doubles, I think Chicago is lucky to get 1 point. They have a decent chance at 3, but the top 2 spots clearly favor Hopkins. In singles, Zhang hasn't been great lately but his team really needs him tomorrow. Chicago is probably also a favorite at 6, but besides those I think Hopkins has too much game. I'll take Hopkins in a 7-2 victory tomorrow but I think most of the matches will be competitive.

Middlebury @ CMS

I thought Midd made a statement crushing Cruz the other night but CMS goes and does the same thing in even more convincing fashion. This will be a war between two outstanding teams and national title contenders. The matches are extremely interesting. CMS needs to use their home court to their advantage, particularly in doubles, because Midd is so strong in singles. Another important thing is that CMS has to not have a letdown after such a huge win against Cruz. I'm sure they were so ready for that match and it's tough to do that two days in a row. They will need to bring that same intensity if they want to have a chance to beat Middlebury. I think a Midd win tomorrow will put them at #1 in the country in the rankings next week. A CMS win would give that title to CLU. Looking at the matches, Midd is a pretty sure thing at #1 doubles. 2 and 3 are close, but I feel that both favor CMS on their home court, especially after their dominance against Cruz. Singles is very tough to call. I like Midd at 3 and 4. I think the Panthers have the best 3 and the best 4 in the country. CMS probably has an edge at 5. This would put things at 3-3 with 3 matches remaining. 6 is tough to call and I like Peters in a close one against Erani. He beat him in the fall. Lim and Lee at 2 could determine the outcome of the match. I think Midd will win 5-4 and this will come down to the wire.

Wednesday March 24th

Spencer Feldman, Trinity (CT)

We have 4 big matches set for Wednesday with two taking place in the AS region and two taking place in the West. To start, we have Chicago continuing their spring break trip and traveling to Lexington, VA to take on Washington & Lee. The Maroons were tested by Newport on Monday but took care of business and they face a tougher test tomorrow. The Generals have been playing good doubles lately, but their singles let them down against Hampden-Sydney in a 5-4 loss last week. I expect a competitive match and I'm looking forward to the 1 singles match. I think Chicago will be a little too strong at the bottom of the lineup and I would predict a 6-3 win for the Maroons. This would be a good win for Chicago's NCAA resume.

Besides Cal Lutheran, I think the most pleasant surprise this year is Kalamazoo. They have quietly been going about their business and they have wins over Chicago and DePauw. They find themselves ranked 13 in the country and they travel to Baltimore to take on a Hopkins team who is fresh off an impressive win against NC Wesleyan. I think Hopkins should be a little too strong but Kzoo has surprised me all year long. Kalamazoo needs to jump ahead in doubles if they want to have any chance at a win. Hopkins should be too strong and I'll go with JHU in a 7-2 win at home.

Middlebury crushed Santa Cruz today and made a statement that they too could be the best team in the country. It's unfortunate that Midd and Cal Lu won't face off, but instead Middlebury needs to continue their impressive play against a hungry Redlands team. The Bulldogs are desperate right now and they need a big win like this if they want to get back into the NCAA hunt. Redlands had an impressive showing against Whitman today with good wins everywhere, especially in the bottom of the lineup. Midd needs to be careful that they stay ahead in doubles and don't let Redlands in the match. I would expect Midd to take at least 2 of the doubles and I think they can win 5 and maybe all 6 singles. I'll take Midd in another 8-1 win but they should be pushed in a number of the matches.

The last big match of the day is a NESCAC showdown taking place in California between Trinity (CT) and Bowdoin. To put it nicely, these two teams hate each other and they always have matches coming down to the wire. I would expect nothing less tomorrow. Trinity (CT) was surprisingly good in singles today against CLU but only managed 7 games in doubles. Bowdoin has also been struggling in doubles so this could be the key to the match. Pena is still nowhere to be found and if this is the case, we could see Trinity (CT) taking the top 4 singles spots. Bowdoin should be a little too tough down low so I think this could come down to doubles. With Pena I think Bowdoin wins, but without him I'm taking Trinity (CT) in a 5-4 win that comes down to the final match. This is a huge match for NCAAs and the loser of it is in very bad shape. I don't know if either of these teams has the ability to knock off one of the top 3 in NESCAC, so this is a match that they both really need to win.

Season Preview #22: Trinity (CT)

General Team Discussion - Despite a great tradition and always producing a solid team, the Bantams really haven't been able to keep pace with the other top NESCAC programs. They had an impressive year in 2008 entering the NESCAC tourney as the top seed, but they came back down to earth in 2009, playing more at the level which I would expect. This is a solid 15-20 team, but with the new selection process, they are going to have a very hard time qualifying for the tournament. According to my power rankings, they sit at #9 in Pool C with only 6 spots available. The Bantams are a good team, but they do themselves a disservice by not scheduling more out-of-conference teams to improve their tournament resume. They don't play any teams outside NESCAC who are projected to be in the top 20 in the country. They certainly have the players, particularly at the top of the lineup, to compete with anyone in the country. They got a D1 transfer in Dan Couzens who could potentially be an NCAA qualifier, and we know Spencer Feldman will probably be top 8 in the Northeast. As of now, Trinity (CT) sits at #5 in NESCAC and they will probably have another top 20 year but miss the tournament due to poor scheduling.

Where They'll Win - The Bantams are projected to have two transfers in their top 4. Couzens from Old Dominion and Rich Bonfiglio from Middlebury, should step into the #2 and #4 spots respectively. This gives Trinity the ability to compete with anyone in the country at the top 4 spots. Feldman has been a good #1 for the past two years and sophomore Anson McCook should be an excellent #3, after having fair success at #2 last year. I'm not sure what they are going to do with doubles yet, but whoever they have at #1 doubles could be a potential NCAA qualifier in the Northeast, and will probably be better than any team Williams would put together.

Where They'll Lose - Depth has been an issue the past couple seasons and it continues to be an issue. The Bantams have serviceable players at the bottom 2 spots, but nothing that can compete with the top 3 in the NESCAC, and for that matter most other top 20 programs. If they happen to get an injury or illness the day of a big match, they are in even bigger trouble. If they don't separate their big 4 in doubles then 3 doubles could be a big trouble spot as well. The issue is that when playing the top 3 in the NESCAC, the Bantams almost start the match down 3-0, and would have to win their 5 strong spots for a victory.

Schedule Analysis - Trinity (CT) has the team to potentially beat some of the teams in the 10-15 range, but they just don't schedule them. They start the season in California with a pretty soft schedule. They have their big conference match against Bowdoin which is a heated rivalry, but besides that they play Pomona-Pitzer and Cal Lu, both of whom they should take care of pretty comfortably. They then return back to Connecticut for the heart of their conference play and the only thing they have going in their favor is the fact that they play the top 3 NESCACs all at home.

Brief Weekly Preview

We have an interesting week ahead of us highlighted by the beginning of Amherst's spring season and topped off with an Emory-Kenyon match at the end of the week. Amherst begins with Cal Lutheran who is a very dangerous team. They have the potential to give Amherst a run for their money if the Jeffs aren't sharp. The following day, Amherst takes on a very intense Redlands team who is looking to solidify a place in the top 10 with an upset. This is definitely a match to keep an eye on.

Overshadowed a little bit by Amherst, Trinity (CT) will also begin their season. They were a darkhorse last year and they are hoping to make more noise this upcoming season. Their match against Bowdoin is another one to keep an eye on. These two teams and CMS will collide in the Stag-Hen Invitational at the end of the week. The field is weaker than past years but a potential final between Amherst and CMS could mean some great action.

Over the weekend, three important matches will also be taking place. CMU has two tough ones coming off their California swing. I would expect them to beat W&L but their match with Hopkins will definitely be a tight one. This will be the first real D3 test for Hopkins and JHU could be considered the #1 sleeper this year looking to crack the top 10. They will need to respond well on Sunday. The #1 ranked Emory Eagles will host Kenyon on Saturday. The Lords had two poor results in California and they are now getting an opportunity to dethrone the best team in the country. Emory should be too much in this match and if Kenyon doesn't bring their best stuff this could be a blowout.