2011 Team Preview #3: Carleton

Peter Dunn

Coach: Stephen Zweifel, 12th Season
Location: Northfield, Minnesota
Conference: MIAC
2008 Ranking: 29
2009 Ranking: NR
2010 Ranking: 29
2011 Projected: 30

Carleton enters this season in an unfamiliar position. They are the defending conference champions and the favorites to repeat. With Gustavus being weak in 2010 and Carleton having their best team in school history, there was talk that the Knights might be able to dethrone the Gusties. Not many people, including myself, thought it would actually happen. It did, and Carleton found themselves in the NCAA tournament. The Knights posted their first tournament win in school history before falling to Trinity (TX). What some people may not have noticed is that they took the Tigers top 2 doubles teams to tiebreakers. This is impressive given what the Tigers did in doubles over their next 2 matches. Carleton did what was asked last season, and the real question is if they can do it again. It has to be an embarrassment for Gustavus to not win the conference, so I'm sure they will be out for revenge this year. I'm picking the Knights to win the conference this year and make another trip to the tournament. They are a superior team to the Gusties and only lost 1 starter from last year's NCAA tournament roster. I would be surprised if Carleton doesn't end this year ranked. Coach Zweifel is coming off a well deserved Central Region Coach of the Year honor, quite an impressive feat for a part-time coach who is also a Biology professor at the school. For those of you that haven't done so, read some of the coach's humorous quotes in Carleton's post-match recaps. Carleton has one of the most underrated players in the Central Region in junior Peter Dunn as well as other promising young players. They play an easy schedule, and their only real tests besides Gustavus will be against Whitewater and DePauw. The DePauw match is one I will keep an eye on to see how much this team has improved. This program is going in the right direction and it could really help the program if they can establish MIAC dominance again in 2011.

Regional Preview: Whitewater

I actually voted for the regional in the poll because I would love to see the Kenyon-Trinity (TX) regional final. Before I discuss that I think Carleton deserves a few words as well. Carleton is making only their 4th appearance in NCAA history after ending Gustavus' run of conference titles. I don't think Carleton will pose much of a problem for Trinity (TX) because of the Tigers strong doubles play so I would suspect a 5-0 or 5-1 for Trinity just because they are a little too strong. Carleton has had a great season after the transfer of their top player, but it's a little much asking them to beat a top 15 powerhouse like Trinity.

So that brings us to the match that I've been hoping for since a month ago. Kenyon is unfortunate to not be playing at home because they have such a great core of seniors. Trinity only goes as far as their doubles will take them. I didn't realize that Kenyon's #3 doubles team is 15-1 on the season. However, this team beat DePauw 9-7 and that same team from DePauw was beaten 8-1 by Trinity (TX). The Tigers have to come out hot because they simply cannot afford to lose this spot. At 2 doubles, I like Trinity as the favorites. 1 doubles is another tough one and it pits two of the best teams in the country against each other. Another big spot that I think Trinity must win. I'm going to say the Tigers will lead 2-1 after doubles. Frey is tough, but I can't pick against Greenberg. The same goes for 2, Piskacek has had a rough year but you have to like his chances. 3 would be the one spot where I think Trinity (TX) will be favored. 4 is another must win for Trinity and 5 and 6 should go to Kenyon. I see a potential doubles sweep for Trinity, but I don't think Kenyon can do the same. Like I said, Trinity will go as far as their doubles takes them. I'm taking Kenyon in a very close 5-3 propelled by the bottom of their lineup, but if Trinity can sweep doubles or get a win in the bottom 2 singles spots, they could win this match and find themselves in the Final 8.

Season Preview #27: Carleton

General Team Discussion - Things were really looking up for Carleton coming into this season. They had a strong fall in their regional and they also are ranked preseason #18 by the ITA. This has to be the first time in about 30 years that Carleton was supposed to beat Gustavus in tennis. They were actually the preseason favorite to win the MIAC and grab their third NCAA bid in the past 25 years. Although Gustavus hosts the conference championships, Carleton was still supposed to win. This was their year to overthrow the mighty Gusties...until their best player transferred to Vassar. I'm not sure when the decision was made and I only got the news about 3 weeks ago, but Ben Guzick, the projected #1 for Carleton transferred to Vassar where his brother plays. It's really unpredictable what kind of effect this will have on Carleton. Depth was an issue for them and this certainly doesn't help. On paper, they should be able to beat Gustavus but if you throw in the intangibles, this could push GAC to another conference title. Carleton went from being a top 20 team to barely being in the top 30. If they can still manage to win the MIAC after the Guzick transfer, I'll be very impressed.

Where They'll Win - Their strength against Gustavus should be the top of their lineup. They still have good players in Colin Russell and Winston Park who are seniors and have experience playing Gustavus. Russell has an outside chance for an NCAA bid if he plays well. Their sophomore duo at #1 doubles of Dunn and Vollman are also crucial for Carleton. These four guys could make up their top 2 doubles teams and top 4 singles players so if they want to take out the Gusties, it's probably in the hands of these 4. Carleton needs to jump on top of GAC in doubles.

Where They'll Lose - I mentioned above that depth is an issue for Carleton. After their two seniors, they have a very young team with almost no experience in any sort of big match. Although Gustavus is young as well, playing at Swanson Indoor Center with a conference title on the line with a Gustie crowd their could be intimidating. These lower lineup guys need to develop throughout the season to give Carleton a solid 3 doubles team as well as adequate 5 and 6 singles players. These are definitely winnable spots, it's just too early to predict what will happen.

Schedule Analysis - One thing going against Carleton is their location. They play a pretty soft schedule because of this. They have a rematch against DePauw from last year and this is the best team on their schedule. They have a regular season match against Gustavus as well as good tests against Luther and Whitewater mid-season. Their last test before MIAC tournament will be against a good Coe team. The biggest match of the season for Carleton is clearly the finals of the MIAC tournament at Gustavus. This could be a historic year if Carleton can win.

10 Things to Watch in 2010

10. Does Kenyon continue to plateau? Kenyon announced themselves as a national title contender two years ago but since then they have really plateaued and found it tough to break out of that 6-10 range in the rankings. Will their win against Amherst in the Fall help them with confidence in the Spring? They are the favorite to come out of their half of the Indoors bracket but this could be their last chance at glory for several years. They lose their Brody, Greenberg, Vandenberg core and I believe Piskacek is graduating as well. This may be Kenyon's last chance at a national title for many years to come.

9. NC Wesleyan in the top 15? Mary Wash out of the top 20? It sounds strange, but it's definitely possible. A potential shakeup in the Atlantic South. Mary Wash has their weakest team in several years and although they are pretty deep, they don't have any stars. That being said, the more I look at this team the more I think they could be dangerous come May. NC Wesleyan quietly had an excellent season last year and beat UMW in NCAAs. Their influx of foreign players and great work by Coach Modise have them listed as a team that nobody wants to play. They play a tougher schedule this season so we will see how they fair.

8. Trinity (TX) ends their year long meltdown The Tigers entered the 2008 SCAC tournament ranked #1 in the country. Since then they lost to an 18th ranked DePauw, lost in regionals, then followed it up by missing NCAAs in 2009. Their team is a year older now and they seem to have an outstanding Freshman in Delafuente. Can they make their way back into the top 10 in the country and end DePauw's 3 year streak of conference titles? I really like this team and I think they are very dangerous with 3 excellent players near the top of their lineup supplemented by above average doubles and a tough bottom.

7. Continued UAA Dominance? Wash U and Emory have entered the last 2 NCAA tournaments as the top 2 seeds. They really have controlled D3 the past two years and all eyes have been on them being on a collision course for the finals. While they were both derailed in the semis last year they were probably the two most talented teams. Emory has been to 8 straight final fours but I think this could be their weakest team in several years with the loss of Michael Goodwin. Pottish had a great fall but can he carry them? Will these two UAA powers meet again in the national finals? They are scheduled to play in the semis of Indoors.

6. A lot of very even teams this year 2 years ago we had upsets galore during the season. Last year things were a bit more predictable. This year I expect something in the middle, but to me there is no outstanding team who is unbeatable. I see a cutoff around #4 in the country but after that you could say the next 10-12 teams are evenly matched and could beat each other on any given day. I expect to see a lot of switching in the rankings from the preseason to the end of the year and I would be surprised if any one team comes out of this year undefeated.

5. JHU and CMU announce themselves on the national scene I thought these two were academic powerhouses? Both have announced themselves on the national scene moving into the top 10 in the preseason rankings. CMU beat Amherst in the fall and JHU has arguably the best 3-4-5 punch of anyone in the country. Both of these teams can knock off anyone on the right day and I don't think its a stretch to say they are both very legitimate Final 4 contenders. If both teams' players can conquer their schoolwork and put in long hours on the court we could potentially see one of these two making a deep run at nationals.

4. Gustavus doesn't win the MIAC I cannot remember the last time Gustavus was ranked outside the top 15 in the country, let alone the top 10. But 25th? 7 spots behind MIAC rival Carleton? This is crazy. But is it? Carleton has slowly built up a very strong team and Gustavus is in the definition of a rebuilding year with a very young team and a new coach replacing a legend. In my heart of hearts I still think Gustavus will find a way to win the conference at home and get the NCAA bid, but Carleton is certainly closing the gap and this could be their year. Coach Valentini needs to do some serious restructuring.

3. A down year for West powerhouses The Slugs and CMS both lost some valuable senior leadership. Cruz has a very young team and they have their hands full immediately at Indoors with CMU in a match that I frankly expect them to lose. That being said, Hansen is probably the best coach in the country and finds a way to win. CMS lost their 4-year superstar Larry Wang and although Erani is emerging as a top player, I don't know if he can carry them. While these should both be fixtures in the top 12, I see both teams finishing probably 5th at best. These two probably have harder training regimens than anyone in the country and they will need extra work to hang with the big boys this year.

2. 3 of the top 5 in the country from NESCAC? It's not a stretch. Amherst dug themselves into a hole this fall but when they return to full strength with Chafetz and Koenig, you could call them #1 in the country. Middlebury is pleasantly surprised with the return of Conrad Olson and the emergence of Andrew Peters, giving them clearly the strongest top 4 in the country in addition to the ITA doubles national champions. Williams is the weakest of the bunch but with a new coach and several strong freshman including potential superstar Felix Sun, they are a tough out. I expect Amherst and Midd in the top 4 in the country, but I think Williams would need some magic to break into the top 5.

1. Wash U returns to the winner's circle My preseason prediction for nationals. John Watts is a senior and he'e been the best player in D3 post-Seeberger. It's only fitting to see him go out a champion. Although they lost a strong senior class, the Bears have an excellent supporting cast after Watts. Stein/Woods are a dominant #1 doubles team and potentially devastating 2-3 punch in singles as well. Freshman Putterman looks like he will definitely be playing in the top 4 and should be very instrumental in Wash U's success. If they are weak anywhere it's the bottom of the lineup in singles and doubles. They will be tested immediately against an improved Chicago team followed by national title contender JHU in what should be the best Indoors 1st round in years.