Reviewing 4 Close Matches On Tue/Wed

The past 2 days were certainly not lacking in drama. First I want to talk about today's match that saw Johns Hopkins travel to Emory in a 6-3 victory for the Eagles that was much closer than expected. For those who haven't seen it, check the box score to the right in the latest news section. Emory was lucky to win. This match says several things, but I don't want to read too much into it. First of all, I would bet Emory went in overconfident, knowing that they stand as the best team in the country and Hopkins was just beaten solidly by NC Wesleyan 2 days ago. The Eagles had to think they would run through this match, but they were very wrong. I think this is great for Emory because it's a wake up call. It shows them that they are susceptible to doubles sweep on any day and they are far from invincible. I'm sure a few points here and there could have given Hopkins a win. The Eagles pulled this out and they now know they have to be on their heels against pretty much anyone in the top 15. I thought the top 3 were on a different level than everyone else, but maybe that's not the case. The bottom line is this is the toughest match Emory's played all season, even tougher than CMS and Wash U. Emory was clutch and managed to survive, and I think this match helps them a lot going forward. I wasn't sure what to make of Hopkins performance when comparing this to the NCW match, but I got an email with a good idea. Hopkins doesn't perform when there are expectations. Looking at the past several years, every time you expect something from JHU, they fold. And when there are no expectations, such as this match, they do very well. That doesn't seem to be an easily fixable problem; Hopkins doesn't play well as the favorite. This match result shows me they have the talent to play with anyone in the country, but they are inconsistent. The Bishops rolled them in singles on Monday, and no disrespect to NCW, but I think Emory is a stronger team than NCW. Something clicked for Hopkins today, and this match has to give them confidence moving forward.

Tuesday's results are posted below in the previous post. Bowdoin took care of Cal Lu as expected. They had too much depth and it showed. The same thing happens to Cal Lu every match, and the truth is they would really be a dangerous team with Ballou. Right now they've got 3 guys who can win in Giuffrida, Wilson and Sousa and that's not enough to beat solid top 15 opponents. The Kingsmen are good, they just don't have the complete team to compete at the highest level this year. They need to do some serious recruiting for next year because their current personnel aren't getting the job done. Bowdoin has to be very happy with their trip. I think they performed quite well and got their young guys some valuable experience. I expect them to be sitting at 14 in the country in the next rankings which should put them as the 6th Pool C team for the time being. This is a typical Bowdoin year; a very solid team who's dangerous against anyone. I think they can go home quite satisfied with their performance and I expect them to keep up the high level in NESCAC play.

In DePauw-Chicago, we saw our first comeback from an 0-3 hole in doubles this season as the Maroons were swept but went on to win 5 first sets and hold on in all of those matches. A much-needed win for Chicago, and when you look at the Maroons resume, it's actually fairly solid this year. This win kept their NCAA hopes alive, but they still need to make something happen. They either need to take out Wash U in their regular season match or take at least 3rd in the UAA tournament, which would mean a win over Carnegie. When the next rankings out, barring any meltdowns from anyone or any unexpected wins from Redlands, I see Chicago sitting at 7th in Pool C right behind Bowdoin. The Polar Bears are going to pad their resume with wins most likely when they take on MIT, Bates and Trinity (CT). Chicago has to match that with a big win of their own because they don't have the amount of ranked wins that Bowdoin will have. The Maroons did a good job in this, but they still have work to do. DePauw is in a big hole right now and I think they may need to go and win the GLCA tournament, and at the very least beat Carnegie in a probable semifinal. They do have their conference tournament to fall back on, but they will have to beat a very good Rhodes team and then Trinity (TX) on back to back days. This was a match DPU needed to win and their NCAA hopes look grim at the moment. Chicago's talent showed in this match in singles and I think it's good for the Maroons to finally get a win against a big time program.

I predicted a win for Pomona-Pitzer against Williams and I was correct, but not in the fashion I expected. Williams has to be pleased with their doubles play against a team that took 2 of 3 from Emory and Kenyon this season. They just didn't get the job done in singles and I think PP's experience paid off. This is not a bad loss at all for the Ephs as PP is ranked ahead of them, but Williams needs to put this behind them because they have Redlands, CLU and Cruz all in the next week. If they can go 2 for 3 in this stretch, I think they are in good shape. They start a freshman and 5 sophomores in singles, so this is still a really young team that will mature throughout the season. I like this Williams team a lot, and if they continue with this level in doubles, they will be really tough to beat all season long. PP continues their dream season with another huge win. The Hens enter SCIAC play riding high, but now its time for them to win rivalry matches against Redlands and CLU. PP has done an amazing job so far, similar to CLU last year, but now is the time when CLU started to go downhill. PP needs to keep it up and carry this momentum all the way through the end of the season.

NCW Tops Hopkins and Tuesday Preview

On Monday, Bates took down Kalamazoo in a close 5-4 that came down to the last match at #2 singles. Good win for Bates, but this shows me for sure they are ranked properly around 23. Another solid Bates team who may finish 5th in the NESCAC; a pretty typical year for them. I know Kzoo is a work in progress, but they are really down this year. It was good for them to win 4 matches against a top 25 team, but I just find it disheartening how much this team has dropped off and no one seems to care. They will extend their conference winning streak, but they aren't a serious threat to do anything in NCAAs. Thinking about it, they probably head into the GLCA tournament in a couple weeks as the #6 seed, which is shocking given that they were top 15 just a year ago.

Cruz beat Trinity (CT) 8-1 on a cold day in NorCal with Trinity only winning at 1 singles in 3 sets. Good win for the Slugs as they head to Texas. The biggest match of the day saw NC Wesleyan defeating Hopkins 5-4 in a match that was really never close. Awesome job by NCW, they clearly learned from Indoors and pulled off this win playing without their #1 Rinat Khussainov. The scores from the bottom of the lineup were surprising, as NCW just dominated. They got the point they needed in doubles and I think they are just in the head of Hopkins at this point. We'll see how things play out, but I wouldn't be surprised if these 2 are in the same position as last year, competing for an NCAA Final 8 bid against each other. If you're Hopkins, it's one thing to beat up on teams you are clearly better than, but to go on the road and beat a team who's just as good as you takes a lot of will, and NCW just out-competed the Bluejays today. The mental toughness is still lacking in big matches, and Hopkins has upcoming chances to turn it around. NCW doesn't have a serious test the rest of the season so I think they go into NCAAs as a team that people will overlook, which I'm sure they love. This was a big win for the Bishops and they are in a great spot right now because Hopkins may beat some people later in the season.

Super Tuesday tomorrow with 3 matches that should all be very competitive and 6 Pool C teams competing. The headline match of the day probably has the least on the line. Williams begins their D3 season against one of the hottest teams in the country, Pomona-Pitzer. Williams is looking to start well after last year's disappointing finish. This team is a year older now and I expect big things from them this year. That being said, I think this will be a difficult one for the Ephs. They aren't match tested and are playing on the road against a confident and battle-tested team. If Williams loses tomorrow, even something like 7-2, I don't think they should be alarmed. If they win, it's a great effort by them, but you can only expect so much of yourself this early in your season. I think Williams is talented enough to not have to worry about missing the NCAA tournament, but this match could potentially have big implications towards Williams getting a top seed in their NCAA regional and being able to avoid Middlebury or Amherst in the Sweet 16. Pomona-Pitzer is ranked 9th, but their NCAA fate is somewhat determined, so I think a win helps Williams more than it helps PP. Both teams should want to win, but Williams probably has slightly more to play for. I expect a very good match and I think a lot depends on Williams being able to hang in doubles, because that's typically where you are rusty if you haven't played much. I like PP in a close 5-4, but no one knows what to expect from Williams so the result is hard to gauge.

The other 2 matches both have huge implications for NCAAs. First the rescheduled match between Bowdoin and Cal Lutheran takes place in Thousand Oaks. Another note is that the Trinity CT-Cal Lu match has been rescheduled for Thursday. Cal Lu desperately needs this win if they want to stay in the NCAA hunt. Wins against Tyler and Whitman are nice, but not enough to put a team in the top 15 and have them qualify in the top 6 teams for Pool C. Cal Lu's Mary Wash loss now looks horrible and they somehow need to offset that with a significant win. This match would be that significant win. I think the Kingsmen match up well with Bowdoin and have a good chance in this, but they have to take a lead in doubles. They have to match Bowdoin's intensity, because I don't think they make NCAAs if they lose tomorrow. I know they have several remaining matches on their schedule, but I don't know if matches against Midd and Williams are realistic wins, and they may have to beat out Pomona-Pitzer or Redlands. The Trinity CT match on Thursday is big, but with the Bantams probably not being a serious top 20 team, this is the one Cal Lu needs. Giuffrida and Wilson have been great this season, but either Worley or Sousa needs to step up tomorrow and get a win in singles, because from all indications, Bowdoin is up 2-0 before the match starts with wins at 5 and 6 singles. Cal Lu needs a little magic, but they have been great at home the past few weeks. Cal Lu is 1-3 in 5-4 matches this season and I think they extend that to 1-4 tomorrow. CLU has a couple great players, but I don't know if they've got enough to beat a well-rounded team like Bowdoin. I wouldn't be that surprised if CLU wins, but I can't pick against the Polar Bears in this. I also didn't mention this is not a match Bowdoin wants to lose, because then they have to root for Cal Lu to beat a team like Redlands. Bowdoin wants to control their own destiny when it comes to making NCAAs, and a win tomorrow would really help.

The match I'm most looking forward to is Chicago and DePauw. These 2 have had some heated encounters over the years and I expect another one tomorrow. DePauw is 3-1 against Chicago over the past 5 seasons, but the Maroons won the most recent one last year in an easy 7-2 win on the road. This is a clash of styles, with the wildly talented underachieving Maroons against a very solid and disciplined DePauw. I'm not going to say lose and you don't make NCAAs, but the loser has a serious uphill battle the rest of the season. They both don't have a ton of remaining opportunities on their schedule, but whoever gets this win on their resume gets a huge boost toward making NCAAs. I really don't know who to pick in this because Chicago has been out of D3 competition for a couple weeks and we haven't seen much of DePauw yet. This is just about as close as you get to a must-win, because the loser would probably need a win over a team like Carnegie Mellon to have a shot at Pool C, and I don't know if either team has that in them. Surprisingly, these 2 haven't played very close matches over the past few years, but I expect a close one tomorrow. My gut tells me Chicago gets the win tomorrow, but again I expect it to come down to the wire. It should be a wonderful match, and hopefully the sportsmanship remains as great as the play because I know that's been an issue in the past when these 2 meet.

Saturday Results

Hopkins d. Vassar 9-0
Emory d. Newport 9-0
Redlands d. Mary Washington 7-2

I apologize for not being very active lately, but there hasn't been much going on. The season really kicks off this Wednesday, and there is a match almost every day until early May. The Stag-Hen this weekend is really the kickoff to the spring season after Indoors and I'll be previewing that later this week.

This weekend we had 3 noncompetitive matches. To begin, Hopkins dominated as expected, although they were tested at the top 2 doubles spots. This was a good warm-up match for the Bluejays and they won't be tested again for 2 weeks when they have a brutal 6 day stretch that includes matches against CNU, Bates, Emory, NCW and Kalamazoo. If I were Hopkins, I'd be working on my fitness a lot to make sure I don't wilt by the end of that string of matches. JHU did what they needed to do this weekend, but they need to be ready for some tougher competition. Vassar travels to California this week and they have a shot at newly ranked Whittier on Tuesday before Coach Cox takes on his former team Kenyon on Wednesday. They then participate in the Stag-Hen where they get to play Enory first round which I'm sure will be a great experience for them. They have to put their focus on improving to beat Skidmore, and they now know what they need to do since they've seen the Thoroughbreds before.

In the other 9-0, Emory topped Christopher Newport as expected, but with much more ease in singles than I was expecting. The Eagles dropped 4 games in the top 3 singles spots, which is just flat out impressive given that CNU's top 3 aren't too shabby. Emory played good enough doubles and they will need to play great doubles if they want to return to Atlanta with a Stag-Hen title next weekend. The Eagles have a tricky match against Redlands on Thursday before the Stag-Hen Invite where likely matches with Trinity (TX) and CMS await. Those 2 will really test the Eagles, and a CMS-Emory final could be a national title match preview. Newport is an interesting story. I don't like to be harsh on teams, but I have a feeling they think they are a lot better than they actually are. The Captains need to win their conference this year and it will be tough to do. They don't play the schedule to get a Pool C bid, so their only road to the tournament is through NCW. The fact is they should be a good team with a top 2 like they have, but I haven't decided whether or not they are a top 25 caliber team. They don't have much until they play W&L in 3 weeks, and I'm expecting that match to tell me a lot about them.

The past several years, the Redlands-Mary Wash match has always been a war, with the 2009 match being tied at 4-4 before Spearman won it for Redlands. This year it was quite a different story. This was exactly the start that Redlands needed to their D3 season and I'm glad to see it. They got a little confidence under their belt heading into matches with Emory and Cruz during the next 6 days. I think Cruz is a winnable match and it will show us what Redlands is really made of this year. I will also be looking at this match later in the week. A wonderful result for Redlands, but the question is how much of it was them playing well and how much of it was Mary Wash continuing to be terrible? The Eagles were an absolute joke this week, and for the players they have on their team, I don't know how they lose like they do. Something happened to this team between '08 and '09, because they haven't been the same program since that NCAA quarterfinal against Middlebury in 2008. I can't put my finger on what's wrong either, but they are horrendous. As I said, I thought this year's team got on the right track after that Cal Lu win, but I was very wrong. They sit at #27 in the nation, and a loss to W&L next Saturday may very well drop them out of the rankings, which is just inexcusable for a program like this. They are lucky to be in a weak conference, but that doesn't mean they should cruise through the season. On paper, I think this team should be in the low 20s and possibly the top 20, but they aren't playing like it. I wondered if the weather adjustment was a factor, but they still got crushed a week after they got there, so that doesn't seem to be the case. Right now I think they just played over their heads at Indoors, riding their home court advantage. The good news is they still have 2 months to turn it around, but things are looking grim for the Eagles.

Weekend Ahead

Only 3 matches of note until next Wednesday and they all take place on Saturday. First, we get a look at Christopher Newport in D3 action when they take on one of the top teams in the country in Emory. This won't be much of a match and I expect Emory to come away with a 9-0 or 8-1 win, but there will some good matches at the top of the lineup with Emory's 1-2 punch of Pottish and Goodwin versus Shulman and Heyer for CNU. 4 of the probable top 25 singles players in the country will be competing. Second, we get our first look at Johns Hopkins this spring as they take on a Vassar team that is coming off a 7-2 defeat against Skidmore. A lot of people are on the look out for Skidmore as a big-time sleeper this year, so how Vassar does against Hopkins may tell us something about Skidmore. I know it's a mistake to expect big things from JHU, but I do once again, so it would be great to see them get off to a strong start.

The main event this weekend is Mary Washington and Redlands in the Bulldogs' D3 kickoff this year. This is a huge match for Redlands because not only do they need the win, but more importantly they need confidence to start the year. UMW and Redlands have had very close matches the past couple years, and I expect more of the same this year. This is key for both teams. Mary Wash is 0-3 so far in California and Redlands needs all the wins they can get to qualify for Pool C, and they can't afford a loss to the #27 team in the country. I'm looking forward to this one.

2011 Team Preview #2: Johns Hopkins

Andy Hersh

Coach: Chuck Willenborg, 7th Season
Location: Baltimore, Maryland
Conference: Centennial
2008 Ranking: 19
2009 Ranking: 11
2010 Ranking: 13
2011 Projected: 10

Last year, I picked this team #5 in the pre-season and I thought they had a shot at the Final Four. They ended up finishing #13 with a loss in the Sweet 16, so don't pay attention to this preview. Their past few postseasons have been huge disappointments and of course the question on everyone's mind is whether they can turn it around. This year's team has strong players at the top, depth, and a wealth of doubles players, so I don't see why they shouldn't make it the the Elite 8 this year. They brought in a decent recruiting class, and those players should be adequate at the bottom of the lineup. Hopkins has the luxury of not having to worry about making the NCAA tournament because of their easy conference. Their schedule is fairly soft, and a big part of this is because they missed Indoors and won't get those extra 3 matches against top ranked teams. When looking at their schedule, there are really only 3 matches that they are in danger of losing and those would be @NCW, @Emory and at home against Carnegie Mellon. Other than that they should breeze by their schedule. I'm very interested to see what Hopkins will do with their lineup this year, especially in doubles. The once untouchable team of Barnaby/Blythe wasn't very good last year, but I think they will probably play in the #1 spot. After them, you still have Wang, Hersh, Elgort and Rauck to fill out the other two spots. In singles, Hersh was a player to watch and I wouldn't be surprised to see him as a great #2 this year. The bottom of the lineup is key and players like Barnaby and Blythe will need to play top notch singles against NCW and CMU. This is where Hopkins fell short last year. A lot depends on the NCW and CMU matches, because this may determine where Hopkins goes for NCAAs, and this in turn would determine whether they can make the Elite 8. Hard Luck Hopkins has the team to make the Elite 8, I'm just not sure if they can do it. They shouldn't be thinking about 2012 just yet with that amazing recruiting class coming in.

Regional Preview: Hopkins

The huge news in this regional is that NCW's #1 Antti Saari will not be playing for undisclosed reasons. This just throws everything in favor of Hopkins, not that they weren't already the favorite. It also makes me question whether NCW can make it out of their 1st round. You have to like Mattleson to get his 2 points for Vassar and I think the Guzick brothers can also win at 1st doubles against a team that's missing Saari. My guess would the NCW is going to be a little too deep for Vassar. The Brewers had a great season and must win near the top of the lineup if they want a chance at a victory. I'm taking NCW 5-3 but I think they should run through 4 through 6 singles fairly routinely. Vassar would have to get the top 3 singles spots to win and this will be tough.

NCW lost 8-1 to Hopkins with Saari and although they are a better team now and will fight hard, you just can't pick against JHU in this match. If NCW had home court, that may be their only chance. Hopkins has looked shaky against top competition this year but I'm sure they will be ready to go. I like Hopkins to take the 1st 2 doubles spots but I think NCW may get on the board at #3. Heading into singles, the Maldow-Wang combo at the top of the lineup has the capacity to turn this into a blowout. The bottom of the lineup should be close but Hopkins should have a little extra at 3 through 5. I'm taking JHU in a fairly comfortable 5-2 and they will find themselves in what I think is their first Final 8 in school history.

Weekend Recap: April 16-17

7 matches of note took place and 2 automatic bids from major conferences were awarded for the tournament. Starting with Saturday, the SCIAC final was a match that we expected between CMS and Cal Lu and a battle between 2 of the top 5 teams in the country. Both teams took care of business against respectable teams on Friday so I was looking forward to a competitive result. CMS did to CLU exactly what the Kingsmen did to Cruz earlier this season. Came out very hot and put the match out of reach after doubles. Cal Lu was able to take 4 first sets to make things interesting for a while but CMS closed quickly with wins at 2 and 6. The 9 point system strikes again, but at the same time, most teams have been victimized as well as benefitted from it. CLU lost 2 of the 3 spots they needed to win the match and this proved to be the difference. In all likelihood, these teams will see each other again in a few weeks for the 3rd and final time.

One the other side of the country, Middlebury put together it's most dominant performance to date absolutely crushing a tough Bowdoin team. They looked not only dominant in singles but also in doubles and after this weekend it makes me think once again that no one will come close to the Panthers this year. Bowdoin needs to regroup and get ready for an upcoming test against Williams that could make them close to a lock for the tournament. Midd looks tough but they will probably face their most stern test yet when they take on Williams and Amherst on back to back days in 2 weekends. Midd once again cemented their place as the country's top team.

Mary Wash had a convincing win against Hamden-Sydney. I believe the ODAC final is this weekend and HSC and W&L will face off for the automatic bid. Also, Mary Wash will host Salisbury on Friday for the right to the CAC automatic bid as well. It is possible that both of these teams seasons could be over a week from now, but it's also possible they could both be headed to the tournament.

A match that I didn't have on the schedule but probably should have was the USA South conference final between Newport and NC Wes. I think both teams needed a win to get in the tournament and I was scratching my head a little bit when Newport managed to win 2 of the doubles to take the lead. The problem for CNU just like it has been all season is that they aren't deep enough in singles. With the illness of Widing, they don't have enough players who can compete against the likes of top 15 teams. Their top guys have taken care of business but they haven't been getting wins anywhere else. This showed as they won I think 7 combined games in the bottom 4 singles spots which just doesn't get it done against a team the quality of NCW. Wesleyan takes their 2nd consecutive conference title and will be headed to the tournament.

Mary Wash tried to use the momentum of the last two matches to upset Hopkins but they were in trouble before the match even started because one of their best players, arguably their most valuable player, wasn't able to play due to cramps the day before. Probably a good call by their coach to rest him for the upcoming week. Mary Wash was able to get their lone win at the 1 doubles spot, but besides that Hopkins crushed them. A much needed win for Hopkins and the 2nd year in a row that they have destroyed Mary Wash. I have mixed feelings on both of these teams going forward and we will see if UMW is up to the challenge this week.

Kalamazoo has really been struggling lately and it looked like that would continue when Gustavus was able to jump on top of the Hornets with 2 doubles victories. Riley had to be pretty upset with his guys because Kzoo is playing nowhere near their potential right now. His speech between singles and doubles must have work because Kalamazoo came out and swept the singles, which was actually somewhat of a surprise for me. I think this was a closer 7-2 than the score, but Kzoo got the job done. Gustavus needs to focus on beating Carleton again so they can defend their conference title and make the tournament. Kzoo needs to find their game from early in the season.

The biggest match of the day was the heated rivalry between Amherst and Williams. Williams has yet to do anything of note this season and with a home match I expected a lot out of them in this match. They just haven't been producing in doubles and this continued as they struggled to win games at the top 3 spots. Amherst is obviously a strong team but if Williams wants to do anything on the national scene this year and even qualify for the tournament, they have got to pick up their doubles play because it's a joke right now. Credit to Herst who went into Williamstown and took care of business. Williams now faces an absolute must win against Bowdoin this weekend or their season could be over very soon. Much like Trinity (CT), the lack of an out of conference schedule is killing Williams right now and they could find themselves out of the top 15 next week if they don't bring it this weekend.

Update and a Few Previews

The ITA Rankings were released on Wednesday. Most of you are aware that I thought some mistakes were made in the last rankings, but I personally have no problems with this set of rankings. I still think Wash U and Emory are overranked, but I also didn't expect that to change from the last set of rankings. The one thing that is now confirmed that I previously suspected is that Chicago will have to get a big win at conference next weekend if they want to qualify for the NCAA tournament. It now gets to the time when rankings become important for NCAA seedings and every match is huge because your team may not get another chance.

Had a busy week and didn't get to make a post, but at the same time there hasn't been much action. The only notable match that took place this week was on Wednesday, when Kenyon d. Denison 8-1 with the one loss being Greenberg at #1 singles, which was quite a surprise. That could spell bad news for some lower ranked guys in the Central region if the Denison player now qualifies for NCAA Individuals.

Today, there will be 3 matches of note taking place. The first will be when Bowdoin travels south to take on #1 Middlebury. I don't think this will be a very competitive match because Middlebury has just been too tough this season, but Bowdoin could potentially squeeze out a win or two. I don't think an upset is a real consideration here. Secondly, we have an Atlantic South battle between Hampden-Sydney and Mary Washington. These are two teams that could both use a win heading into their conference tournament. I would think UMW will win with their depth in this one and it's possible that the Salisbury win got the Eagles back on track for this weekend. The biggest match on Saturday is the SCIAC championship between #4 CMS and #5 CLU. Of course a conference title is on the line, but more importantly than that I think hosting for NCAAs is also on the line and both of these teams love their home courts. Giuffrida lost to Spearman from Redlands yesterday which was a shocker since Spearman hasn't done much this season. I don't know if Giuffrida is suffering from some health problems or injuries, but his team needs 2 wins from him today if they want to beat the Stags. I'll stick with the same prediction as last time and say that CLU must win #1 doubles and both of the top 2 singles spots if they want to win this match.

Sunday also boasts 3 big matches with the first being another AS clash when Johns Hopkins looks to continue their mini win streak as they travel to Mary Washington for their annual match. This match is big for Hopkins not only for confidence, but they could potentially lose their regional top seed in NCAAs if they lose. The Eagles will most likely be coming off a big Saturday win and they will be hungry for an upset. My guess would be Hopkins is a little too strong at the bottom of the lineup, but I am on upset watch in this match because I don't think it will be as routine as some people think. If Mary Wash can get an edge in doubles, they can win. Confidence wise, I don't think JHU can afford to be upset heading into NCAAs. The 2nd match of note is Kalamazoo vs Gustavus at a neutral site. GAC has won this match in recent years but I have to call Kzoo the favorite tomorrow. The Hornets are another team that desperately need a win after their poor results lately. It is also to their advantage that the match is being played at a neutral site. I think Kzoo will have a little too much talent and I would expect a 6-3 victory for them. The biggest match on Sunday is between the 2 and 3 in the NESCAC and bitter rivals Amherst and Williams. Williams will be hosting and I'm sure they will have a nice crowd. This is a big match not only for bragging rights, but also NCAA seeding and hosting. Williams could make a splash in the top 10 if they win this match and if I'm Hopkins and Kenyon, I'm rooting for Amherst so they both can keep their regional top seed. Both of these teams are very deep in singles and I see the matches as pretty even. Amherst may have a slight edge due to experience but I think this will come down to doubles. Herst should be a bit too strong and I'm going to take them 5-4, but I'm not surprised if Williams wins. #12 in the country is unfamiliar territory for the Ephs so I'm sure they are looking to get back in the top 10.

3 Saturday Previews - April 10th

The calendar shows a very full weekend ahead of us however only a few of these matches will have implications on the national rankings. I'll go over 3 Saturday matches which I feel are the most important of the weekend.

Salisbury at Johns Hopkins

I was quite impressed with Salisbury until yesterday. This has happened before, but one good hour of tennis made Salisbury into a legitimate team and this can happen with the 9 point system. Play great doubles on your home court against a good team and suddenly people take you seriously. This worked for Salisbury but obviously their season comes down to whether or not they can win their conference. The match this weekend is as simple as who will recover better after recent poor results? Hopkins was blown out twice last weekend but they are now on their home courts against a team who is significantly less talented than them. Salisbury was on a high and riding a win streak but now they are sweating about making the tournament. I don't see how Salisbury can win more than 2 singles matches in this one. Hopkins is just better everywhere. The Gulls need a doubles sweep, and that's going to be difficult on the road. I also wouldn't be surprised if Hopkins makes some adjustments to their doubles lineup after being swept two days in a row by teams they are equivalent to. I'm taking Hopkins in a 7-2 win on Saturday because I'm just not a believer in Salisbury right now.

GLCA Tournament

Four contenders are competing this weekend. Kenyon is the host and top seed followed by CMU, Kalamazoo and DePauw. Weird things have happened at this tournament in the past so I'm not going to speculate about the finals, but I will take a look at the potential semis. DePauw hasn't seen any serious D3 action in a while and they know they are out of Pool C if they don't win this tournament. They actually match up decently well against Kenyon, but the problem is I don't know how DePauw is going to get ahead in doubles. Both teams have strong teams 1 through 3 but you have to like Kenyon. I think Kenyon will manage to get a 6-3 win, but they could potentially get in trouble if DePauw wins 2 or 3 doubles. In the other semi, Kalamazoo has been struggling since losing Patrick Boyd, who played 1 doubles and 4 singles. He was a key to their wins against DePauw and Chicago. Even with him, I don't know if they can beat a hot Carnegie team. CMU has been great in singles and I see Kzoo winning two matches max of the 6. If Kzoo wants to win, they need to sweep doubles. I don't know if the CMU doubles sweep of Hopkins was a fluke, but if CMU plays doubles like they had been in previous matches, a sweep isn't out of the question. I'll take CMU 6-3.

Cal Lutheran at CMS

I've been looking forward to this match for about two weeks now and it's time to determine who the best in the West is. The thing I actually just realized is that these teams will meet again the following Saturday in their conference tournament finals. With rankings out next Tuesday, I don't see how CLU could possibly be denied the #2 ranking in the country if they win this match. They are hungry to make something happen, but can they bring that intensity into Claremont and beat their bitter rival on the road? Despite the excellent top of the lineup for CMS, you have to like CLU to get 1 dubs as well as 1 and 2. I know this is harsh, but Giuffrida and Ballou have both passed test after test. Erani beat Giuffrida in the fall so that's one thing he has going for him. The question is can CMS get 5 points in the remaining 6 matches? I certainly like the Stags at the 4 and 5 positions. The Keiffer/Lim team is a question mark and this could be a huge swing point. CLU has also been rock solid at 3 singles so this could be a 4th point for them. Basically, if Cal Lu wins those 3 automatic spots I gave them, they will win. If CMS manages to steal 1 dubs or 1/2 singles, then I like the Stags.

Weekend Recap: April 2-4

7 matches of note took place over the past three days which I'll discuss in this post. I'll provide a few thoughts on each of the results.

Bowdoin took out MIT 6-3 on Friday in a fairly competitive match. Both of Bowdoin's doubles victories were extremely close and if even one of those goes MIT's way, things could have been very interesting. I've heard Pena is done for the season and I don't know if it's true or not, but that certainly hurts Bowdoin. MIT is a tricky team with good depth that could pose problems for some higher ranked teams. I believe they deserve their top 30 ranking and this is certainly a team to watch in upcoming years. Bowdoin enters NESCAC play on a high note and if the tournament started tomorrow, they would be in. They really have to play their way out of it and I think that will be tough. Things are looking bright for the Polar Bears.

Rhodes was a sleeper coming into this year and we saw that they could play with the best in the country when they split singles in a 6-3 loss to Kenyon. Their doubles needs improvement and this showed once again today in a 6-3 loss to the 16th ranked Trinity (TX) Tigers. Trinity was able to win #1 and #2 doubles 8-0 and complete the sweep with an 8-6 at 3. Rhodes won 4 first sets to stay in the match but Trinity proved to be too strong at the top of the lineup. I think Rhodes could pose a potential threat to DePauw and Trinity in the conference tournament if they can improve doubles. They can play with the best in the country in singles but they can't afford to be down 2-1 or 3-0 every match.

I think Hampden-Sydney just gets pumped up to play Washington & Lee. They got trounced at home by Salisbury in a match that was never close. I expected Salisbury to win, but not like this. HSC is all about beating W&L and that's good, but they need to produce against other teams as well. Obviously they are a strong team, but this result certainly didn't show it. Salisbury reinforced their #14 national ranking in this match and they are playing great tennis heading into their Wednesday clash with Mary Washington.

I was quite surprised when Redlands jumped on top of CMS in doubles because I think this is a real strength for the Stags. Even with the 2-1 lead, I had a feeling CMS would win comfortably. I've referred to this many times before, but Redlands isn't a complete team this year. They don't have the top of the lineup and they also aren't winning with their depth, so there's just no way for them to compete with the teams they normally are competitive with. A tough year for the Bulldogs, but give credit to CMS who played great singles. They see Cal Lu in a week in what will be an absolute war. I expect a great match next Saturday from both teams, but CMS needs to watch themselves in doubles after their Saturday performance.

Vassar was undefeated going into their match at home against Trinity (CT) on Saturday although they hadn't faced a real test yet. Trinity (CT) is a strong team and they proved to have a little too much firepower in singles. This was a much needed win for Trinity (CT) who is still looking to jump Bowdoin and Chicago for an NCAA tournament spot. I like this result for both teams, but the thing that jumps out to me is that Trinity (CT) is still struggling in doubles. They aren't going to beat a Williams or Bowdoin if they keep losing doubles because those teams can match their firepower in singles. Vassar proved they are a good team who can knock off a top 15 opponent on the right day. They have a shot at Williams this upcoming weekend so we will see how they do.

I'm just as guilty as everyone else, but I'm pretty sure the majority has been wrong in the weekly poll almost every time. We had 57-41 in favor of Johns Hopkins as a prediction for Saturday. Not only did Hopkins lose, they didn't win a match. I read that Kenyon was down 7-4 at #3 dubs and came back to win and when this happened, the match was over because we knew Greenberg was getting a win. Hopkins has the ability to come back being down 2-1, but not 3-0. This was Kenyon's first big win of the spring and they did it in very convincing fashion. If they play like that every match, they can beat anyone in the country. We knew Hopkins had tough back-to-back matches and after I saw this result I was sure they would bounce back on Sunday.

Carnegie has been struggling with doubles over and over and they decided it was finally time for a change. Despite only flipping two of their players, it worked and they came out and swept Hopkins in three close matches to go up 3-0. Hopkins won 4 of 6 singles against CMU at Indoors, so I thought it was still a possibility that JHU could win. CMU played just as well in singles highlighted by a win at #1 singles to take the match 7-2. They proved that they too can beat anyone in the country on the right day and they deserve to be in the top 10. If they keep up the good doubles, they will be very tough to beat. Hopkins just had a rough weekend and needs to regroup. I think they will only drop to #10 so they are still in line to be a top seed in their region for NCAAs. What they can't afford is another loss to a team ranked below them and I have no doubt this is still an excellent team.

Johns Hopkins at Kenyon Preview

Mike Greenberg and Will Vandenberg, Kenyon

This is just a very even match and one that I had circled on calendar at the beginning of the season. A chance for both teams to get a good win against a top 10 opponent. All season, I have been questioning Kenyon's depth and talking highly of Hopkins depth, but I think the Lords depth may just be what gives them a win. Kenyon is known for their large and rowdy crowds and this could play a big part in the outcome of doubles. Greenberg-Brody have been up and down at the #1 position and they take on the very steady team of Maldow-Wang. There is a ton of experience on this court but I think Kenyon should come away with a win at home. 2 of the best #2 doubles teams in the country will be squaring off and this is also a very tough call. #3 doubles is very even as well. I would expect Kenyon to come away with 2 of the 3 doubles at home. If Hopkins wants to win this match, #1 doubles may be a spot they need to win.

Greenberg should take care of business at #1 and #2 is a huge spot. Piskacek is in a bit of a slump and Wang has been having good results despite his recent loss to Kzoo. I'll come back to this. Elgort and Polster face off in a match between two of the most underrated #3's in the country. I'm going with Hopkins in this. At 4, Vandenberg takes on Hersh and you have to go with the senior over the freshman to give Kenyon their 4th point. Burgin and Barnaby should be a good contest at 5, but I'll take Kenyon to clinch the match. 6 could go either way. #2 is a spot Hopkins needs if they want to have a chance to win, but Kenyon can afford to lose it. I'm taking Kenyon with a very tight 6-3 victory. If Hopkins can somehow win and then go to Pittsburgh on Sunday and win again, they will move on to my list of legitimate Final 4 contenders. In the same breath, if Kenyon can come out and dominate Hopkins, I will also be impressed. I'm looking forward to a great match Saturday.

3 Friday Previews

Conrad Olson, Middlebury

Trinity (CT) @ Pomona-Pitzer

This is a match between two teams that desperately need a win. Pomona-Pitzer only has one quality win on their resume and Trinity (CT) lost to their rival in a match that they really needed to win. The loser of this match can kiss the NCAA tournament goodbye. Both of these teams need to start producing quickly if they want to be in the tournament and that starts tomorrow. If Pomona-Pitzer is going to win this match, it has to be in doubles. Trinity (CT) hasn't looked all that sharp in doubles this week and I think this is arguably P-P's strength. They will be pumped up on their home courts and I think it's very possible that the Hens can win 2 of 3 doubles. Things turn in Trinity's favor when singles start. I think the middle of the lineup will definitely go in favor of Trinity. The top two spots and bottom two spots both can go either way, but I'd consider Trinity a slight favorite at 1 and 2. 5 and 6 are both tough to call. I think the Bantams will come out on top in this match because they have too many good singles players. 6-3 Bantams tomorrow.

Chicago @ Johns Hopkins

Kalamazoo beat Chicago 7-2. Johns Hopkins beat Kalamazoo 8-1. Easy win for Hopkins tomorrow? Not so fast, my friend. The Maroons have been playing good tennis this week in a trio of 6-3 wins against quality opponents. They will be in top form tomorrow to face a top 10 team. All that being said, I think Chicago may be in over their heads tomorrow. Hopkins is an excellent team who seems to also be in great form after a trouncing of NCW highlighted by doubles sweep. Hopkins will also be playing on their home courts and I think they are the better team. In doubles, I think Chicago is lucky to get 1 point. They have a decent chance at 3, but the top 2 spots clearly favor Hopkins. In singles, Zhang hasn't been great lately but his team really needs him tomorrow. Chicago is probably also a favorite at 6, but besides those I think Hopkins has too much game. I'll take Hopkins in a 7-2 victory tomorrow but I think most of the matches will be competitive.

Middlebury @ CMS

I thought Midd made a statement crushing Cruz the other night but CMS goes and does the same thing in even more convincing fashion. This will be a war between two outstanding teams and national title contenders. The matches are extremely interesting. CMS needs to use their home court to their advantage, particularly in doubles, because Midd is so strong in singles. Another important thing is that CMS has to not have a letdown after such a huge win against Cruz. I'm sure they were so ready for that match and it's tough to do that two days in a row. They will need to bring that same intensity if they want to have a chance to beat Middlebury. I think a Midd win tomorrow will put them at #1 in the country in the rankings next week. A CMS win would give that title to CLU. Looking at the matches, Midd is a pretty sure thing at #1 doubles. 2 and 3 are close, but I feel that both favor CMS on their home court, especially after their dominance against Cruz. Singles is very tough to call. I like Midd at 3 and 4. I think the Panthers have the best 3 and the best 4 in the country. CMS probably has an edge at 5. This would put things at 3-3 with 3 matches remaining. 6 is tough to call and I like Peters in a close one against Erani. He beat him in the fall. Lim and Lee at 2 could determine the outcome of the match. I think Midd will win 5-4 and this will come down to the wire.

Wednesday March 24th

Spencer Feldman, Trinity (CT)

We have 4 big matches set for Wednesday with two taking place in the AS region and two taking place in the West. To start, we have Chicago continuing their spring break trip and traveling to Lexington, VA to take on Washington & Lee. The Maroons were tested by Newport on Monday but took care of business and they face a tougher test tomorrow. The Generals have been playing good doubles lately, but their singles let them down against Hampden-Sydney in a 5-4 loss last week. I expect a competitive match and I'm looking forward to the 1 singles match. I think Chicago will be a little too strong at the bottom of the lineup and I would predict a 6-3 win for the Maroons. This would be a good win for Chicago's NCAA resume.

Besides Cal Lutheran, I think the most pleasant surprise this year is Kalamazoo. They have quietly been going about their business and they have wins over Chicago and DePauw. They find themselves ranked 13 in the country and they travel to Baltimore to take on a Hopkins team who is fresh off an impressive win against NC Wesleyan. I think Hopkins should be a little too strong but Kzoo has surprised me all year long. Kalamazoo needs to jump ahead in doubles if they want to have any chance at a win. Hopkins should be too strong and I'll go with JHU in a 7-2 win at home.

Middlebury crushed Santa Cruz today and made a statement that they too could be the best team in the country. It's unfortunate that Midd and Cal Lu won't face off, but instead Middlebury needs to continue their impressive play against a hungry Redlands team. The Bulldogs are desperate right now and they need a big win like this if they want to get back into the NCAA hunt. Redlands had an impressive showing against Whitman today with good wins everywhere, especially in the bottom of the lineup. Midd needs to be careful that they stay ahead in doubles and don't let Redlands in the match. I would expect Midd to take at least 2 of the doubles and I think they can win 5 and maybe all 6 singles. I'll take Midd in another 8-1 win but they should be pushed in a number of the matches.

The last big match of the day is a NESCAC showdown taking place in California between Trinity (CT) and Bowdoin. To put it nicely, these two teams hate each other and they always have matches coming down to the wire. I would expect nothing less tomorrow. Trinity (CT) was surprisingly good in singles today against CLU but only managed 7 games in doubles. Bowdoin has also been struggling in doubles so this could be the key to the match. Pena is still nowhere to be found and if this is the case, we could see Trinity (CT) taking the top 4 singles spots. Bowdoin should be a little too tough down low so I think this could come down to doubles. With Pena I think Bowdoin wins, but without him I'm taking Trinity (CT) in a 5-4 win that comes down to the final match. This is a huge match for NCAAs and the loser of it is in very bad shape. I don't know if either of these teams has the ability to knock off one of the top 3 in NESCAC, so this is a match that they both really need to win.

Weekend Recap: March 19-21

Dillon Pottish, Emory

There was a ton of action and a lot of drama this weekend. We learned a lot about many teams and obviously the headliner was the #1 team in the country fell. I'll start with the Atlantic South Region matches.

The morning match was a lopsided affair where NC Wesleyan absolutely dominated Mary Wash. I expected a better performance from the Eagles, but a great job by the Bishops to turn things around in doubles after dropping 2 to W&L. This is just a rebuilding year for Mary Wash, I don't know if there's anything else to say. At this point I see their Redlands win as a fluke after they swept the doubles. This is the only win that is keeping them afloat right now and if they aren't careful they will lose to Salisbury this year. NC Wesleyan looked like a top 10 team for a few hours before getting beaten by Hopkins 8-1. I expected a closer match, but Hopkins won a 9-7 in doubles as well as all 3 3-setters. This was closer than the score but it was still 8-1 and I think it woke NCW up. It showed them that they aren't ready to compete with the best in the country just yet. They have a good shot to knock off a vulnerable Williams team Thursday. I think we've seen that NCW is a little up and down so far this season. A good showing by Hopkins establishing their dominance as #2 in the AS region behind Emory who had a convincing win over DePauw on Saturday. The Eagles went from dropping 2 of 3 doubles at Indoors to sweeping DePauw. A 7-2 result is about what I expected.

The other 4 matches on Saturday took place in the West. Redlands jumped out to an expected doubles lead against Bowdoin but then proceeded to falter in singles. The Bulldogs just don't have anyone who can win near the top of the lineup and their depth isn't good enough to carry them. They are pretty much out of NCAAs this year unless they pull a huge upset. This has to be the first time in a while they miss the tournament. Bowdoin got a much needed victory but they are still playing without Oscar Pena. They face a must win situation early this week when they play Trinity (CT). If they lose, they can count themselves out of the tournament this year as well. Whitman defeated Pomona-Pitzer in a very close match with 4 3-setters. The difference was Whitman winning in the middle. The Squirrels are a tough team this year. If they don't get stuck in Cali for NCAAs, I think they could definitely pose a threat to a top seed in their region. They have a lot of experience and are solid everywhere. They pushed Cruz to a 6-3 match on Sunday which is an improvement from their result 6 weeks ago.

The 2 biggest surprises of the weekend involved the 3 top teams in the West. Amherst rebounded after getting spanked by CLU and beat a CMS team who looked very tough in their first few matches. CMS may have been overconfident going into this matches but I'm very surprised they were beaten at the top 4 singles spots. A good showing by Herst to get them back on track heading into NESCAC play. CMS needs to regroup and get ready for some upcoming tests including the new #1 team in the country, Cal Lutheran. I was getting updates from the match and I was told Cruz was not sharp in doubles. CLU took advantage of this and took the 3-0 lead to basically end the match. Despite the 5-4 score, it was clinched at 5-1. Giuffrida and Ballou both have individual records of 24-0 right now and they are the best doubles team as well as the best 1-2 punch in the country at this moment. CLU is not just beating these opponents, they are winning comfortably. I love the fact that a team who was supposed to be #25 in the country is now ranked #1. Just goes to show what hard work and confidence can do for a team. Cruz had no expectations at Indoors and played loose tennis to win it. Now that they were expected to win, they folded. CLU plays CMS on April 10th and I think they are well on their way to undefeated regular season. Crazy to say it, but at the moment they are the favorite for nationals.

Two Saturday Previews - March 20th

Andrew Wang, Johns Hopkins

Johns Hopkins vs. NC Wesleyan

Hopkins has been away from D3 play for about a month now, but they should be sharp after spending spring break in Florida. NCW struggled in their first real test against Washington & Lee. This isn't a promising sign for a team that expects a lot from themselves this spring. W&L managed to get both of the top 2 doubles spots on Wednesday against NCW. Hopkins is clearly stronger at both of the top 2 doubles spots so I would expect them to get comfortable wins from their top 2 teams. I think NCW needs a win at 3 to stay alive. I would expect wins from Hopkins at the top 2 singles spots to put them up 4-1 heading into the bottom 4 spots. Both teams are strong at the bottom, and I would expect a split of the 3 through 6 lines. #3 is a match to really pay attention to and #4 should be highly contested as well. I'm going with Hopkins in a 6-3 win that never really gets all that close. I think NCW has a while to go before they can break into the top 10. Another factor to consider is that NCW has a morning match against Mary Washington, taking place in Fredericksburg. This will surely be a long, grueling match and I think NCW could be feeling the effects of the morning against Hopkins.

Amherst @ CMS

Amherst has not looked impressive so far this week and CMS was really sharp taking down CMU and Trinity (TX) with ease. The CMS doubles lineup has been outstanding and I think they will dominate Amherst here. The Jeffs are lucky to get 1 win in doubles and honestly I'm expecting a sweep. Amherst picked up their doubles against Redlands and this was a promising sign. CMS has been mixing things up in doubles over their past couple matches but I would expect them to come out hot on their home courts and take at worst a 2-1 lead. #1 will be a great match but Erani has been very strong lately so I have to give the edge to him. #2 should also be close but I have to go with Lim. 3rd singles is a potential winning spot for Amherst and a spot they really need. #4 is also a potential winner for Amherst. At 5 and 6 I have to go with CMS in 2 pretty easy wins. The Stags are just a little too good everywhere and given the home court advantage, this should be a routine win. Remember that CMS beat Amherst 7-2 during the regular season last year and the Jeffs went on to make the national finals. I'll take CMS 6-3 tomorrow.

Team By Team Discussion from Indoors and Other Weekend Thoughts

Gustavus Adolphus - The Gusties did about as well as they could this weekend. If you told me they would get 5 points over 3 matches, I may not have believed you. I thought it would be more like 2 or 3. I think this is encouraging for them going forward when it comes to winning the conference. With a homecourt advantage I think they could sweep doubles against Carleton and also manage to find 2 singles wins. Gustavus could finish the year in the top 20 but they have work to do.

DePauw - The Tigers played great against Emory and wilted a bit after that loss. I expected them to take 2 of the doubles against Hopkins and when they didn't do that they were done. They have a huge weekend next weekend and we will really see what they are made of. They could get a really nice jump towards an Pool C NCAA Bid if they can knock off both Chicago and Kzoo on their homecourts. If I'm the Tigers I'm pretty happy with my weekend because we saw flashes of brilliance from them on Day 1.

Carnegie Mellon - I should have mentioned the word volatility in their season preview. I thought CMU would be a new team after their Fall Amherst win but they were the same old team this weekend. They let Cruz off the hook and weren't nearly as close as I thought they would be against Hopkins. They need to watch out for a tricky CNU team next Tuesday. Also, we will see what they learned from this weekend when they go to Cali. 3 top 15 teams out there. 0 wins = very overrated, 1 win = their typical 12-15 season, 2 wins = potential Elite 8 contender, All 3 wins = national championship contender. I'm not sure if that near upset of Cruz was a fluke or not.

Johns Hopkins - Yes they went 2-1, but the Day 1 match is the one they really needed for their confidence. They beat 2 good teams on Day 2, but they are also better than those teams. They have a month of down time from D3 play and their next match is against a very dangerous NCW team. This is a must win for Hopkins. I expected a lot more from them at the 3 through 5 singles positions. This is supposed to be their strength and the wins weren't coming. They need to start winning at these spots if they want to make a national title run. Doubles has room for improvement but they got better as the weekend progressed.

Kenyon - Maybe the most disappointed team after this weekend. A good showing against GAC, the doubles loss is expected against the fired up Gusties. The Cruz match is the one I thought they would run through. Their seniors let them down and this is the core of their team. If they are down 2-1 in doubles, their top 2 need to win or they are done. They just don't have the depth to match the other top 5 teams in my eyes. I still think this team can win a national title, I just expected a Finals appearance from them this weekend and they didn't produce.

Emory - Overall, a pretty shaky tournament from the Eagles. They could have lost to DePauw, but used their experience to grind through that one. The Eagles are always a national championship contender no matter what happens in the early portion of their season. They lost to their heated rival, but bounced back nicely against Kenyon. The good thing about this weekend from Emory is they will see all 3 of these teams again during their season so they will find out how they've progressed a team. I'm still searching for an update on Lopp because I think he can make a huge difference.

Wash U - An amazing first 2 days from the Bears followed by a poor finals performance. They were just flawless on Day 1 crushing a potential top 5 opponent and then followed it up by beating a very good Emory team with a doubles sweep and some good singles play by the bottom of their lineup. They showed they have the depth to compliment Watts at the top of the lineup. They play Kenyon in 3 weeks so we'll see if they learned from the Cruz match. I was expecting them to roll through the finals but it goes to show that even the top teams still need work.

Cruz - What can we say about these guys besides what a performance. They won 3 matches which they should have lost and took home another Indoor title. They funny thing is if they played Wash U every day for the next 10 days at a neutral site, I'll take the Bears in 8 of those. Just an amazing coaching job by Hansen and unbelievable leadership by Pybas and Vartabedian taking the team on their shoulders and leading them in all 3 matches. Even though they won the whole thing, as Hansen said in the match recap, a lot of work still needs to be done before they can defend their national title. A great 3 day performance, but I'm not a believer yet.

Besides the final of Indoors, the most surprising result for me is Kzoo over Chicago. The first thing that pops into my head is it's not even March and Chicago is already in a huge hole for NCAAs. Pool C is too deep to have losses like this, even if Kzoo ends up being a top 20 team. Chicago needs to rebound and beat DePauw next weekend or they can basically count themselves out of the tournament already. How do you go from losing 5-4 to the Indoors finalists to losing 7-2 to a team outside the top 20? I give Kzoo credit. They played a decent match against Kenyon and this match showed they are making great strides as they won every match easily. This is a top 20 team to me after this weekend and they could pull an upset this year when we are least expecting it.

CMS lost to an NAIA team 5-4. That same NAIA team was beaten by Cruz 8-1. This worries me a little bit. CMS isn't getting production from the middle of their lineup. They need to step up given the depth in the top 10 this year.

Cal Lu is a team to watch, as is CNU. Both have started well this season and both have top 20 potential if all their players play well. CLU got a good start with a win against Pomona-Pitzer on the road, winning 5 singles matches. CNU has been playing mostly D1 teams and they have a match that I'm really looking forward to this Sunday against Vassar.

Indoors Recap and Thoughts

Since Gustavus was doing live stats and everyone was following, I decided to save my recap for the tournament and thoughts for after. Bear with me because this will be a pretty extensive post.

I'll start with Day 1. You all read my predictions so I had some idea of what I thought would happen. The first two matches were shockers to me, particularly in doubles. We have Wash U come out and destroy Hopkins with 8-4 across the board. I attribute part of this to Hopkins not playing a match before Indoors and the other part is the Bears just being ready to play after their rough weekend last weekend. I expected more out of Hopkins 2 team this weekend because this is a huge spot. Maldow/Wang won't win enough carry Hopkins in doubles and I believe their 3 team of doubles specialists could be broken down by two very good singles players. Wash U jumped to the early lead and the match wasn't really in doubt. Watts made a statement at 1 and 2 and 3 were close as expected with Wash U winning both to win the match. The bottom of the lineup was also a surprise. I expected Hopkins to be much more competitive at 4 and 5 and I think these are two very important spots for them going forward. The Bears were my favorite to win the tournament after Day 1. Emory took my advice and split up Goodwin and Pottish. This ended up backfiring for the Eagles and they found themselves almost down 3-0 in doubles. The absence of Lopp really hurts the Eagles in singles and doubles so when he is back Emory will be a much better team. Emory took top 2 as expected and managed to get a tough win at 4 to take the lead. Redmond clinched the match for the Eagles at 6. I think we knew that DePauw needed the doubles sweep if they were going to win. The afternoon matches brought what I expect was a large Gustie crowd to the Swanson Tennis Center creating an intense atmosphere. Gustavus used the crowd to hang with Kenyon in doubles and almost managed to come out on top 2-1 after the doubles. Like I expected, the good news ended there for Gustavus as Kenyon swept singles. We knew this would happen, Gustavus was just overmatched at this tournament by the other 7 teams. The other match was more interesting. #3 doubles was a huge spot for Cruz this weekend and I don't think many people realized that. This was supposed to be an iffy spot for the Slugs and they won handily on Friday giving the Slugs a 2-1 lead. CMU looked like they were coming back after taking first sets at 1 and 4. The Slugs always fight though and came back at both spots to wrap up the match 5-1 before CMU would win the final 3 matches which are pretty irrelevant in my opinion. It's 5-4 on the scoreboard but I don't think things were all that close. Looking back, CMU won 4 first sets in singles and they just weren't able to finish. I wasn't all that impressed with Cruz even though they got the first win.

The morning of Day 2 brought 2 results which were expected and don't need to be discussed all that much. Hopkins had a fairly routine win over DePauw, it was never really close and CMU destroyed the Gusties in doubles and this was never really close either. Without the crowd's energy, GAC wasn't able to produce the same level and only won 8 games in 3 matches. CMU won 5 of the singles as expected. Hopkins also had a good singles performance, but losses at 5 and 6 had to be alarming for them. The afternoon was where the real action was. Wash U came out firing again and won all 3 doubles. Emory mixed up their doubles teams putting their all-star combo back at 1, but this just didn't work out for them. The Bears were able to take a 3-0 lead and we thought Watts would be an automatic win at #1 so I was pretty sure the Bears would cruise in singles. About 90 mins later, Emory looked like they could win this match. They got a masterful performance from Pottish, and Egan redeemed himself after a poor Day 1 showing to make things 3-2. Here is the turning point. If Emory completes their comeback at #5, I think they win this match, but they weren't able to do so. Two freshmen were battling and Parizher came out on top to put the Bears in excellent position needing only 1 of the remaining 3 matches. Levy was able to clinch the win and send the Bears to the finals. I'll address doubles sweeps later in this post because I have some commentary on it. I think Wash U is the better team and I'm anxious to see these two play again after they both have a chance to mature as teams and particularly after Emory gets Lopp back. Going into the second semifinal, I thought the Lords would have no trouble with the Slugs. Hansen just works magic and gets his guys ready to go. They ran through 1 and 3 dubs. I actually expected the Slugs to win both of these spots but not with the ease that they did. Kenyon kept themselves in it with an expected win at 2 from what I still think is their best team, and should be their #1 team. Burgin looks to be one of the best freshmen in the country and he tied things up 2-2 at #5. The two huge matches that allowed the Slugs to win this match were 1 and 2. If I'm a betting man, I don't think Greenberg and Piskacek both lose. After winning those top two spots, the Slugs were in control. My hat goes off to Vartabedian for easily handling Piskacek. Clearly the MVP of the tournament in my eyes. The Slugs were able to get their 5th win and wrap up the match for their 2nd upset in as many days. Yes they were the #1 seed, but if you get right down to it, I don't think they were as talented as CMU or Kenyon, yet they managed to get wins in both. The night matches were both as expected for me. DePauw rested some guys but they were still able to beat Gustavus 6-3. This was the most competitive match of the tournament got GAC and it has to be tough for them to take 8th at their own tournament. I think it will be a long spring for Gustavus and possibly a short career for Valentini if he doesn't turn things around with the tradition that this program carries. DePauw played two good matches in their first two, so they got a much deserved win. They are a team that I wouldn't want to see later in the season. #3 doubles was the huge spot in the CMU-Hopkins battle. CMU needed to be up 2-1 if they wanted to win and they couldn't do so. Hopkins won at the top 2 spots as expected and after this we knew they would get at least 1 of the bottom 4. I'm looking forward to a match between these two later in the season, but I think Hopkins is the better team. I think they are both deserving of their top 10 rankings at this point and both have the potential to improve.

Day 3 brought two intriguing matches. In the 3rd-4th, I expected a pretty routine win from Emory and that's what happened. Kenyon matches up very poorly against Emory and after the doubles sweep, we knew things were over. The Lords really weren't close at any position. I think some team switching could be in order for the Lords and I expect to see some different doubles teams their next time out because what they are doing now just isn't working. Emory rebounded nicely from the day before. They got two good wins from the best 1-2 punch in the country to seal the match. This result was as expected. I was so sure that Wash U was going to destroy Cruz, and the opposite happens. UCSC played magnificent doubles, surrendering 11 games in 3 matches. Even after the doubles sweep, I still thought Wash U would win. If they could survive the top of the lineup and get 2 of 3 in the top 3 spots I thought the Bears would be well on their way to victory. Watts did his part making the score 3-1. Koening just came up huge for the Slugs and won another battle between freshmen to give the Slugs a 4-1 lead and put the match in the hands of Vartabedian. I want him on the court if I'm Bob Hansen after all the great things he has done. Vartabedian didn't disappoint and gave the Slugs their 3rd upset win and the National Indoor title.

I'm going to do a team by team discussion in the next few days but for now I just have some general thoughts. I don't know how else to say this, but I think the 9 point system has to be re-evaluated. 1 dubs is ahead, 2 dubs gets a fluke break and 3 dubs get a huge momentum burst. Boom, the match is over, don't even bother playing singles. Things can be decided in 10-15 minutes and I don't think it's fair. These teams are so evenly matched that it is so rare that a team will come out and win 5 singles matches. Mentally, it's nearly impossible to come out of an 0-3 hole.

I think we are in for another 2008 where anyone can beat anyone else. I got pretty much no feedback from the results this weekend about who's strong and who's not because they just didn't make any sense. Yes, Cruz won the tournament but on paper they are probably the 8th or 9th best team in the country. If the tournament is played again next weekend, they can easily lose 1st round. If you want my best teams in the country after this weekend, the answer is Middlebury and Amherst. Not that I wasn't impressed with the 8 teams this weekend, but there is no one that stood out, even Cruz. I think any of the top 5 finishers, and maybe even CMU, could have won the tournament. There is a lot of tennis left to be played and I think we are in for a very unpredictable and crazy season if this weekend is any indicator.

National Indoors Preview: #3 Wash U vs. #6 Johns Hopkins

Definitely the best first round match and I think this could end up being one of the best first rounds in history when we look back on the season and the accomplishments of both teams. I am less impressed with the Bears than I was in pre-season after they struggled with Chicago. Hopkins has yet to play a match so I consider this a disadvantage. I thought Hopkins was going to change their doubles teams for the spring, but it seems that isn't the case. I'm taking Woods and Stein at #1 for Wash U, and I think Barnaby/Blythe will beat Farah/Watts at #2 doubles, but this could be a big swing match. I'm shocked that Hopkins decided to remove Elgort/Hersh from the 3 spot and instead have two doubles players there. Wash U looked very weak at #3 doubles and I consider this a huge swing spot as well. I'm going to give the edge to Hopkins, but it could go either way. Watts will win for sure at #1 singles and I like Wang over Stein at #2 singles. I'll take Elgort over Putterman at #3 singles as well giving Hopkins a 4-2 lead. Wods will use his experience to get a win at #4 to keep Wash U in it and I would also be surprised if Levy doesn't come through for Wash U at #6 singles. This leaves things at 4-4 with #5 singles left and I know it's biased but I always pick against the freshman in the case so I'll take Grist to win it for Hopkins 5-4 in an upset.

Season Preview #13: Johns Hopkins

General Team Discussion - It's been quite a turnaround for Hopkins tennis the past few years, but in a way I think all of the expectation may get to this team. They gave the national runner-up a very tough time in NCAAs last year, but they still have yet to break through. I would be shocked if this year's team didn't end up in the Final 8. This is another complete team with very good players top to bottom including 2 NCAA Singles qualifiers, a D1 transfer and one of the top freshmen in the country. And their most dangerous player may not even be listed there. After the top 4 schools, Hopkins is my #1 contender to win a national title. While I doubt they can have 3 huge wins 3 days in a row at nationals, they definitely are capable of doing so. This is a team on the rise and they continue to bring in good recruiting classes every year. They are to the point of dominating their conference and 2010 should be a breakout year for them. While I think a Final 4 run is possible, I'm expecting a trip to the Elite 8 this year and they will fall to one of the top 4 in a battle.

Where They'll Win - One of the deepest teams in the country and maybe better than anyone at 4 and 5 singles. I'm not sure what their order will be in the middle of their lineup but whoever plays at 4 and 5 singles will be a huge weapon for Hopkins. I'm not sure what their doubles teams will look like either, but a Barnaby/Blythe combo at 2 would be an automatic win for Hopkins against most teams. 3 doubles has traditionally been a problem for Hopkins but they now have many good singles players and I would expect them to produce a very strong #3 team.

Where They'll Lose - I don't see any true weaknesses on this team. I have to compare them to the other top 5 teams in the country. Maldow has been a force for 4 years but I don't know if he can keep up with the best #1's in the country. Wang has been very tough at 2 singles but the same applies for him. He needs to step up against the likes of Chris Goodwin and Andrew Thomson if Hopkins wants to have a chance at a national title. I'm not sure if they can put together a winning combination at 1 doubles either. 6 singles is still up in the air and I'm expecting Barnaby to fill in. Whether or not he's a consistent winner is yet to be seen.

Schedule Analysis - A very unlucky Indoors draw playing Wash U in the first round. If they win this, I think the country will take them very seriously as a national title contender. How they finish at Indoors is also important. Their first real test is NCW and they play Chicago at home a week later. They need to pass both of these tests with flying colors. A tough two day road stretch in early April against Kenyon and CMU, which will really test the Blue Jays. Their last test of the year will be on the road against Mary Washington. They need to practice hard before NCAAs because there's a gap in the schedule.

10 Things to Watch in 2010

10. Does Kenyon continue to plateau? Kenyon announced themselves as a national title contender two years ago but since then they have really plateaued and found it tough to break out of that 6-10 range in the rankings. Will their win against Amherst in the Fall help them with confidence in the Spring? They are the favorite to come out of their half of the Indoors bracket but this could be their last chance at glory for several years. They lose their Brody, Greenberg, Vandenberg core and I believe Piskacek is graduating as well. This may be Kenyon's last chance at a national title for many years to come.

9. NC Wesleyan in the top 15? Mary Wash out of the top 20? It sounds strange, but it's definitely possible. A potential shakeup in the Atlantic South. Mary Wash has their weakest team in several years and although they are pretty deep, they don't have any stars. That being said, the more I look at this team the more I think they could be dangerous come May. NC Wesleyan quietly had an excellent season last year and beat UMW in NCAAs. Their influx of foreign players and great work by Coach Modise have them listed as a team that nobody wants to play. They play a tougher schedule this season so we will see how they fair.

8. Trinity (TX) ends their year long meltdown The Tigers entered the 2008 SCAC tournament ranked #1 in the country. Since then they lost to an 18th ranked DePauw, lost in regionals, then followed it up by missing NCAAs in 2009. Their team is a year older now and they seem to have an outstanding Freshman in Delafuente. Can they make their way back into the top 10 in the country and end DePauw's 3 year streak of conference titles? I really like this team and I think they are very dangerous with 3 excellent players near the top of their lineup supplemented by above average doubles and a tough bottom.

7. Continued UAA Dominance? Wash U and Emory have entered the last 2 NCAA tournaments as the top 2 seeds. They really have controlled D3 the past two years and all eyes have been on them being on a collision course for the finals. While they were both derailed in the semis last year they were probably the two most talented teams. Emory has been to 8 straight final fours but I think this could be their weakest team in several years with the loss of Michael Goodwin. Pottish had a great fall but can he carry them? Will these two UAA powers meet again in the national finals? They are scheduled to play in the semis of Indoors.

6. A lot of very even teams this year 2 years ago we had upsets galore during the season. Last year things were a bit more predictable. This year I expect something in the middle, but to me there is no outstanding team who is unbeatable. I see a cutoff around #4 in the country but after that you could say the next 10-12 teams are evenly matched and could beat each other on any given day. I expect to see a lot of switching in the rankings from the preseason to the end of the year and I would be surprised if any one team comes out of this year undefeated.

5. JHU and CMU announce themselves on the national scene I thought these two were academic powerhouses? Both have announced themselves on the national scene moving into the top 10 in the preseason rankings. CMU beat Amherst in the fall and JHU has arguably the best 3-4-5 punch of anyone in the country. Both of these teams can knock off anyone on the right day and I don't think its a stretch to say they are both very legitimate Final 4 contenders. If both teams' players can conquer their schoolwork and put in long hours on the court we could potentially see one of these two making a deep run at nationals.

4. Gustavus doesn't win the MIAC I cannot remember the last time Gustavus was ranked outside the top 15 in the country, let alone the top 10. But 25th? 7 spots behind MIAC rival Carleton? This is crazy. But is it? Carleton has slowly built up a very strong team and Gustavus is in the definition of a rebuilding year with a very young team and a new coach replacing a legend. In my heart of hearts I still think Gustavus will find a way to win the conference at home and get the NCAA bid, but Carleton is certainly closing the gap and this could be their year. Coach Valentini needs to do some serious restructuring.

3. A down year for West powerhouses The Slugs and CMS both lost some valuable senior leadership. Cruz has a very young team and they have their hands full immediately at Indoors with CMU in a match that I frankly expect them to lose. That being said, Hansen is probably the best coach in the country and finds a way to win. CMS lost their 4-year superstar Larry Wang and although Erani is emerging as a top player, I don't know if he can carry them. While these should both be fixtures in the top 12, I see both teams finishing probably 5th at best. These two probably have harder training regimens than anyone in the country and they will need extra work to hang with the big boys this year.

2. 3 of the top 5 in the country from NESCAC? It's not a stretch. Amherst dug themselves into a hole this fall but when they return to full strength with Chafetz and Koenig, you could call them #1 in the country. Middlebury is pleasantly surprised with the return of Conrad Olson and the emergence of Andrew Peters, giving them clearly the strongest top 4 in the country in addition to the ITA doubles national champions. Williams is the weakest of the bunch but with a new coach and several strong freshman including potential superstar Felix Sun, they are a tough out. I expect Amherst and Midd in the top 4 in the country, but I think Williams would need some magic to break into the top 5.

1. Wash U returns to the winner's circle My preseason prediction for nationals. John Watts is a senior and he'e been the best player in D3 post-Seeberger. It's only fitting to see him go out a champion. Although they lost a strong senior class, the Bears have an excellent supporting cast after Watts. Stein/Woods are a dominant #1 doubles team and potentially devastating 2-3 punch in singles as well. Freshman Putterman looks like he will definitely be playing in the top 4 and should be very instrumental in Wash U's success. If they are weak anywhere it's the bottom of the lineup in singles and doubles. They will be tested immediately against an improved Chicago team followed by national title contender JHU in what should be the best Indoors 1st round in years.