Thoughts on Other Saturday Results and Monday Preview

Besides the Stag-Hen, 4 other important matches occurred Saturday. Let me begin in the Northeast, where Bates and MIT faced off in a match of 2 solid teams who are hoping to crack the top 20 this year. I know the Bates squad thinks they've got a good team this year but MIT defended their home court and came away with a 5-4 win. This MIT squad is getting better and we could see them in the top 20 this year after last year's Sweet 16 performance. Bates desperately needed this win if they wanted to have any hope at a Pool C bid and now they will need to do some serious work and pull a few upsets in NESCAC play. Even if Bates wins at the top of the lineup they are in trouble and this showed as MIT took 3, 4 and 6 as well as 2 of the doubles matches. It's a shame to see Bates not able to come through but I just don't think they have enough players to field a team that's competitive with the best in the country. Next, we got our first look at the defending national champs as they had a convincing 8-1 against Brandeis. Brandeis hasn't been doing very well this year, but credit to Midd for beating a solid team convincingly. Midd has designed their schedule so they don't have many tough D3 matches in California and they will get a chance to develop their young team before facing a serious test. A good start for Midd, I don't think they could have asked for much more.

Working our way South we had a clash in Virginia between two programs that have been struggling. Mary Washington defeated Washington & Lee 6-3 in a match that was fairly close. UMW was able to pull out 2 3-setters as well as a 9-7 in doubles to get a desperately needed win. It's clear the Eagles are much more comfortable playing on the East coast. It's a shame to see the fall of W&L as they will most likely be out of the top 30 in the next rankings for the first time since I can remember. This team was top 15 as recently as 2008 and they just aren't doing what they need to be doing. They will probably win their conference but for as good as they used to be, this is terrible from W&L. And lastly, out West, Cruz dominated Redlands 8-1. This result really surprised me because Redlands played Emory tough on Thursday and I thought they would have a good showing here. Cruz is notoriously tough on their home courts and I'm sure they played great doubles to suck the life out of UR. Cruz also has to be pleased seeing CMS fall like they did. Redlands has to be careful with the rise of Pomona-Pitzer because the Bulldogs are far from a lock for the tournament. They are solid on paper, but they've got to string some wins together eventually and an 8-1 loss to Cruz isn't going to get it done. Well done by the Slugs and a good start to a tough next few weeks.

4 matches on the calendar taking place tomorrow, but only 1 of real significance in my opinion. The first match to mention will be Denison and Rhodes battling for what could be a spot in the top 30. Rhodes started the season by upsetting a solid UT-Tyler team and the Lynx have consistently been 3rd in their conference in recent years after Trinity (TX) and DePauw. Dension is coming off a near upset of Chicago in which the deciding match was 7-5 in the 3rd in favor of Chicago. If Denison wants to have any chance at an NCAA bid, they need this win and it will also help them to build confidence for an eventual showdown with Kenyon. Secondly, aforementioned UT-Tyler takes on Whitman in California. WC is fresh off a good SH Invite and UT-Tyler has really been struggling, falling not only to Cal Lu and Rhodes, but also to conference foe McMurry. They're hurting right now and aren't what they used to be, so I'll predict an easy win for Whitman. In the third match, Kenyon continues their spring break when they travel to Thousand Oaks to take on Cal Lutheran. With Cal Lu missing their top player, I like Kenyon to get a pretty easy win. This will be a nice cool down for Kenyon after a stressful weekend as they should win a comfortable 6-3 or 7-2. On the other hand, it will be a good test for Cal Lu to help them realize what they need to do to be competitive going forward.

The main event tomorrow will be a clash between 2 top 15 teams: Bowdoin and Trinity (TX). This will be Bowdoin's first match of the spring, and honestly I'm not too sure what to expect from them. Trinity (TX) is fresh off disappointment and I would assume they are still beaten up from a rough 2 days. 48 hours is not enough turnaround time to get a team completely healthy. This is a tough opener for Bowdoin, but as a Pool C team, they really need to be on their heels, especially after Trinity lost to both Whitman and PP. If Bowdoin loses tomorrow, and then Redlands beats PP, the Polar Bears could be in big trouble when it comes to making the tournament. I know it's tough to look that far ahead, but every match is important. I just don't trust Trinity at all right now, but a win tomorrow would at least show the country something. Likewise, Bowdoin can make a statement that they are a contender with a win tomorrow. I expect a competitive match and it's too hard to predict since I know little about this year's Bowdoin squad.

Two notes: If anyone is at the matches and will email me score updates, I will tweet them. I instantly get emails on my phone so the turnover time will be quick. I'm sure everyone who reads the blog would appreciate it. Secondly, I put the match calendar together a while ago and haven't looked to update it. If I missed any matches or if anyone knows of schedule changes, please email me and let me know. It's too much work to go through every team's schedule again and check everything.

Stag-Hen Analysis

Colin Egan, Emory

Vassar - A bit disappointed in their performance, but my conclusion is they just aren't that good this year. They are probably slightly weaker than last year's team who finished 28, so I just don't see them as top 30 material. They probably can beat Skidmore on a good day, but it will take a lot of work to get there. I really expect John Cox to instill a winning attitude in this program, but great things don't happen overnight.

Swarthmore - Not too much to say, but I'm happy to see them get a win on a big stage. They're still a decent team and after seeing them give Whitman a hard time and beat Vassar, they may be in the 30-40 range of teams this year. That's probably an improvement over the past 3 years which is a step in the right direction.

Trinity (TX) - I don't really know what to say. Trinity was beaten up with illness this weekend; I get that, but this morning was not good. I can understand a loss to P-P, especially given how the Hens did in their next 2 matches. Trinity is almost on Chicago's level when it comes to underachieving at the moment. In their defense, their California trip last year was a trainwreck and they ended up just fine at the end of the season, but they have to remember that there are only so many chances. They still have Amherst and Bowdoin on this trip and those are far from walks in the park. The point of doing well in the regular season is to give yourself an easy region in NCAAs (unless you're in California), or make NCAAs period. I can see Trinity losing to Bowdoin and Amherst, losing all 3 matches in their quad and then losing the conference final to DePauw on some fluke day. That means they probably miss the tournament. I picked this team 4th in the country pre-season, and the way they played the first month of the season, they're not even top 10. The talent is there, I don't doubt that, but they aren't where they need to be mentally or on the court. I still think they are extremely dangerous, potentially near the level of the top 3, if they put it all together. But me saying that and them actually doing it are 2 very different things.

Whitman - Not a good start for Whitman, but they got their big win against Trinity. To begin, the Kenyon match was closer than its 8-1 score, but Kenyon was better in tight situations, and I attribute that to the first month of the season. The Lords had another gear to go to and Whitman did not because the bottom line is warm up matches against teams in the NWC don't get you used to the level needed to beat a team like Kenyon. Whitman is obviously limited geographically and scheduling wise, but by the time they got into the groove of this tournament, look what they were able to do. This team reminds me a lot of DePauw; very hard working, plays good doubles and doesn't have a lot of flashy stars. Basically, a team like P-P who can be a thorn in Trinity's side because they have the doubles and depth to keep up with the Tigers as well as a great attitude on court. I've been on Whitman about beating a higher ranked team and they did it. They deserve this win and they'll be rewarded for it ranking wise. Depending on how results play out the next few days, Whitman will be top 15 in Thursday's rankings with top 12 also a possibility and #10 not out of the question. Even though they slipped in the match they were preparing for, they showed a ton of resiliency and for that they deserve a lot of respect. They may not be the most talented bunch but their hearts are as big as anyone.

Pomona-Pitzer - Emory won the tournament, but to me, the Hens were the top story this weekend. This is an experienced team that is well coached and I feel like Belletto's first several years as head coach have all lead to this year. He's taken what he has and made the most of it, and for that, this program deserves praise. I was on PP about not being able to get a big win, and they finally showed that they are the real deal. The most impressive thing is that they didn't go away after their Trinity win. They took more points from Emory than CMS did, and even though they lost the Kenyon match, they made a statement that they are a serious Pool C contender and a potential top 10 finisher this year. They are in great position to make the tournament now and will really have to mess up to not get a Pool C bid, especially if Trinity gets some wins later in the season. I was so impressed with this team this weekend and if they continue to get better, there's no reason they can't give CMS and Cruz a hard time. It's unfortunate they may not make it out of the California regional, but given how far this team has come, just making it should be a big accomplishment. I expect to see them top 10 in the next rankings.

Kenyon - The Lords continue to play top notch tennis and showed great mental toughness dominating Whitman in doubles and coming back from a 4-2 deficit against PP. Remember that this team lost 4 starters from a team that finished 12th last year and now they look like a solid top 10 contender. If that's not enough warrant for coaching staff of the year awards, I don't know what is. I am continually impressed by the 2011 Lords. I keep expecting them to slip and it doesn't happen. Interestingly enough, they are through the difficult part of their schedule and that means they have pretty much locked up a top seed in their NCAA regional. Given that they beat Denison, the only tough thing remaining is GLCAs where they see Case or Denison in the semis and then CMU or DePauw likely in the final. They've weathered the storm and done what they needed to do, and I can't say enough about how impressed I am that they successfully patched up the holes left by last year's graduating class. A fantastic tournament for Kenyon and I really am a believer in this team now.

CMS - I blame it on a bit of overconfidence. They absolutely crushed the #7 ranked team in the country and watched Emory struggling against a Pomona-Pitzer team that the Stags crush year after year. The Stag faithful will make the excuse that Robbie Erani didn't play (I'm assuming he's injured), but the bottom line is he wouldn't have won that match for CMS. As tough as CMS is and as much depth as they have, they were significantly weaker than Emory mentally. They didn't get outplayed or outcoached, they just didn't come through in the clutch. The good news is that's a fixable problem and it comes with experience. Playing NAIA teams is not the same as playing D3 matches, so in reality this was a great test for CMS to see where they stand and they will be ready for Amherst next weekend. It may have been good for them to get a wake up call like this, because they had been cruising so far this season. They get into the real heart of their schedule now, but they know they aren't the best team in the country. They train hard, but they need to do some re-evaluation if they want to win a national title. The talent is there and the match was closer than the 7-2 result, but they lost pretty badly in a match I know they expected to win.

Emory - The moment NCAAs ended last year, I was on the Emory bandwagon for the 2011 Eagles because I know the quarterfinals of NCAAs is not an acceptable result for this program. We haven't seen Herst yet, but Emory is the team to beat right now and has cemented themselves as #2 in the country and potentially #1. The Eagles came through where I thought they were vulnerable and I think it's great that they don't just count on their top guys to win matches. It was probably good for them to be pushed in that semi because it showed them that they need to play better doubles, and that's exactly what they did. Emory has designed their doubles lineup so their 3 team is a sort of insurance so that they don't get swept. They got a quick point in the final and took the pressure off the other 2 teams. I have absolutely no criticism of this team right now because I think they are not only talented, they have finally become focused and humble and are no longer the loud-mouth team that everyone used to hate. They will continue to be tested throughout the season and that's good for them, because I know how badly they want the national title back after a 4 year dry spell topped off by a particularly bitter defeat in 2010.

Stag-Hen Invitational Discussion

Alex Lane, CMS

After a year hiatus, the Stag-Hen Invitational is back for a 4th year. The field is always strong for this tournament and this year is no exception. 4 of the current Top 10 teams in the country will be competing along with 2 others also in the top 20. For those of you unfamiliar, CMS and Pomona-Pitzer co-host this event, as their courts are within walking distance of each other. They do a wonderful job with the event and it's a great opportunity for all participants to play in a beautiful location and play teams they normally wouldn't see. Let's take a look at this year's field.

CMS vs. Swarthmore
Kenyon vs. Whitman
Trinity (TX) vs. Pomona-Pitzer
Emory vs. Vassar

There are storylines involving every team competing and it's a lot of potential information to digest. Everyone has their eyes on a potential CMS-Emory final, but they both have a lot of work to do to get there. First, I'll discuss the bottom 2 seeds. Swarthmore is a program that is lost right now. It seems like a long time ago, but they qualified for Indoors as recently as 2007. After that, we haven't heard from them. The Garnet are in danger of dropping down to 4th in their conference this year with F&M and Haverford being solid programs. It's unfortunate to see the sudden downfall of a team that was once top notch, but they just aren't recruiting at a high enough level to keep up. With the academic draw of the school, one would think they should be a contender for the top 20 in the country. This isn't the case though and they are a heavy favorite to finish 8th in the tournament. With a little bit of restructuring and some good recruiting, Swarthmore could be back on the map as a national power, just like Amherst did a few years ago. For now, I see them getting crushed 3 times this weekend. Vassar may have a shot at winning 2 matches, but it's unlikely with the strength of the other 3 teams in the bottom half. I've talked about the Brewers a fair amount, and they are trying to establish themselves as a team that is ranked consistently. This is a good opportunity for them to get exposure against some teams outside of New England, but I think it's pretty clear they are 7th best team in this tournament.

The 3 through 6 teams may be a lot closer in ability than meets the eye. The other 2 matches highlight the first round and I would not be at all surprised if 1 of them ended in an upset. First, the co-host Pomona-Pitzer takes on Trinity (TX) in a match where both teams have something to prove. Trinity did not have a very good California swing last year so they are looking for some redemption and trying to prove that they are a top 5 team. Losing this match would not help that cause. As I've said, Trinity peaks late in the season, but I'm sure the Tigers feel they should finish at least 3rd in this tournament. PP is trying to finally break through and become a top 15 team so they can qualify for NCAAs. I don't think 2 SCIAC teams get Pool C bids this year, so therefore it's either the Hens or Redlands. PP is playing at home and with a lot of confidence right now, and if you look at the rest of their schedule, this is one of their best chances for an upset. PP can't come out nervous because I believe doubles is the strength of both teams. If the Tigers come out firing, they have the potential to break PP's spirit and walk away with an easy win. I expect an emotional, grinding match that results in a Trinity win. Pomona-Pitzer still doesn't have that signature win over the past couple years and because of that, I can't pick them against a team of this caliber. I think this will be the best quarterfinal.

In the 4-5 match, we have surprising Kenyon against Whitman. As far as what each team is trying to prove, see the previous paragraph. So far, I don't know if anyone not from Kenyon would have expected the Lords to be sitting at #7 in the country. They have played great tennis, and have certainly proved me wrong about their preseason ranking of 15. They are the favorite in this match and have been rock solid so far this season, but anything can happen. Similar to PP, Whitman is a team looking for a breakthrough. I often get on WC about how they falter against higher ranked teams. Although these 2 have several ranking spots between them, I think they have similar strengths and I expect a good match. A Whitman win could really throw the rankings into a tailspin since Kenyon stands at #7. Whitman has been looking for their ticket out of the California regional, and this may very well be their only opportunity to do that this season. If they win this match, they probably find themselves in the top 10 in the country and may head home with only their conference matches left to play. It's a big opportunity, but they have to really want it and rise to the occasion. These 2 played in the SH first round several years ago with Kenyon winning and beating CMS in the next round. I don't expect a repeat of that, but I do expect Kenyon to win a fairly comfortable 6-3. If they play the way they played against CMU and Chicago, winning will take care of itself.

The structure of this tournament has the semifinals on Friday afternoon directly after the quarters. As if CMS and Emory needed an advantage. Not only are they the better teams, but they will have much easier quarterfinals than their opponents. I don't foresee CMS having any problem with either Kenyon or Whitman, and I think at worst they come away with a 6-3 win. They may use their depth and rest some of their starters in the morning match. The bottom half semifinal could be a little trickier for Emory. When I say I thought Trinity had the best doubles lineup in the country, I didn't just make it up. They didn't play well at Indoors, but everyone, including Browning and his team, know that the Tigers are dangerous. The Trinity team crushed the Emory team in the fall and Trinity also has the best 2 team in the country. Emory is vulnerable in doubles as Wash U showed in Indoors and even though a Pottish/Egan combo looks great on paper, Trinity may be just as good at 3. The bottom line is the Tigers need a doubles sweep to win. Fitness will be an issue and because of that, I like Emory to win 6-3. Trinity matches up well with the Eagles and can win, but they'd need a massive effort from the bottom of their singles lineup and in doubles.

In the final round, I expect Whitman and Pomona-Pitzer for 5th, Trinity and Kenyon for 3rd and Emory and CMS for the title. In the 5th place match, this is more important for PP than it is for Whitman. PP is competing for a Pool C bid and this is not a match they can afford to lose because it would be a dagger in the heart to their tournament chances. Whitman won a hard fought match last year so PP is looking for some revenge, but it may come down to who is less deflated after losing a winnable 1st round match. I like Pomona on their home courts, but I expect a very close result. The Hens will realize that they need it more and by the 3rd match of the tournament I don't think either team will be nervous or anxious. Again, this would be a nice win for Whitman, but it is absolutely crucial for PP. The 3rd place match is a no brainer on paper. These 2 met in last year's Sweet 16 with Trinity winning 5-2. Trinity has their whole team back and Kenyon lost 4 starters. However, as I've said, Kenyon is playing at a much higher level than anyone expected so I expect them to give the Tigers a very hard time. I think Trinity will have a bit too much, but conditioning could play a role. Kenyon may not spend a ton of energy in a loss to CMS, but Trinity could have a long one with Emory. I like the Tigers to win 5-4 or 6-3, but I've underestimated Kenyon this whole season and I'm aware I may be doing it again.

The probable final and biggest match of the season to this point should be Emory and CMS. It's interesting that all 3 of the top teams in the country come into this year with a chip on their shoulder. Amherst got crushed in 2 consecutive national finals, Emory blew a 3-0 lead in last year's NCAA quarters and CMS blew 7 match points to send them to the national final. All of these teams are hungry to prove something and I think they are all very focused. These 2 have contrasting styles as Emory possesses an amazing top of the lineup and CMS has unmatched depth. I am sure that Alex Lane is a great player, but I can't pick against Pottish at the moment. I don't think CMS has anyone who can compete with Chris Goodwin at #2 and that forces CMS to win 5 of the 7 remaining matches. For the Stags to win, I think they may need a doubles sweep. Colin Egan is a clutch #3 and the Eagles have a hidden gem in Nick Szczurek who may be one of the best 4s in the country. I see Emory potentially taking the top 4 spots. If they can put a point on the board in doubles, I really like Emory's chances in this. That being said, Wash U showed that Emory is quite vulnerable in doubles, and with CMS playing on their home courts, a doubles sweep is very possible. The Stags should have the edge at the bottom of the lineup, but I'm picking Emory 5-4 in this match. I believe Browning has his guys very focused and fit after last year's disappointment, and it's just too tough to deal with the top 2 players in the country. CMS can win this match, but I'm impressed with the top two thirds of Emory's lineup and I think it's enough to get them a win on the road.

Weekend Recap

3 matches that I'm going to discuss plus a few other results of note. Cal Lutheran vs. Pomona-Pitzer was cancelled due to weather and a new date has not been picked for the match. Not a ton of key matches this weekend, but a few results worth mentioning. Chicago beat Gustavus 6-3 after falling behind 2-1 in doubles. The Maroons were able to pull out 2 come from behind 3-set singles wins to avoid the upset. Chicago still does have a fighting spirit and life when it comes to qualifying for the NCAA tournament. This morning, the same Gustavus team lost 6-3 to DePauw, winning 2 singles matches at the bottom of the lineup as well as 1st doubles. If I'm Gustavus, I have to be fairly happy with the fact that I played 2 top 20 teams pretty tough given how far the Gusties fell last year. With Carleton get smoked by Whitewater, I have to call GAC the favorite in the MIAC right now. The Gusties actually play Whitewater in 2 weeks and this will be a big match for them. As I expected, Chicago and DePauw had nearly identical results this weekend. The Tigers meet the Maroons on March 22 in an absolutely massive match with the loser being at a big disadvantage when it comes to qualifying for NCAAs.

Skidmore found their 2009 form and beat Vassar 7-2 in a fairly routine victory. If Skidmore keeps up the good work, they could be quite dangerous in May. However, Vassar will now want revenge in the conference tournament so this just adds more fuel to the fire in what should be a great conference final. The biggest match of the weekend had Kenyon defeating Carnegie Mellon 6-3 in a tight match. It's time to give credit where credit is due and say that Kenyon is playing great tennis so far and is definitely the most pleasant surprise for the month of February. The Lords have beaten 2 top 20 teams and there's no reason they will stop here. With the team they have, they are really playing well and this win should put them at 7 or 8 in the next ITA rankings. They are getting contributions from everywhere as Burgin looks to be one of the best #2's in the country and the Polster/Williams team is playing like they are top 10 in the nation in doubles. The Lords next tests will be in California where they will have a match against Whitman and potential matches with CMS and Trinity (TX). I said this before the year started, if Thielke can put this team in the Final 8, he deserves Coach of the Year. The way they are playing right now, this is a definite possibility. Looking at the other side of the match, this is far from a bad loss from CMU because they are still in great position and should be single digits in the rankings, but I'm now questioning my statement about them being as good as last year which I made last weekend. They first need to concern themselves with making the tournament, but they should be more concerned about getting a top seed in the regional. The good news is they may get to see Kenyon again in the GLCA final if they both make it. One thing that disappoints me is that I dubbed Bobby Mactaggart one of my Players to Watch, and he is almost single-handedly doing in his team right now. He's won 10 games in 4 singles matches and is 0-4 in doubles in D3 competition. I said that CMU won't get anywhere without him and I stick to that. Along with Ray Worley, he's not doing what he needs to be doing. Seems like Wichlin, Polster, Frey and Egan all got my message though, because they've had good starts to the spring.

Two other results of note from Case Western. They knocked off both Whitewater and Kalamazoo and should find themselves in the top 30 if not the top 25 in the next ITA rankings. Coach Wojtkowski is running a fantastic program in Cleveland and the Spartans are on the rise. This makes things very interesting in the UAA as there are now 6 probable ranked teams. Life is hard for CMU and Chicago as one of them will have to take on a fiery Case team and the other will have to take on the host Brandeis in the conference tournament 1st round. I could easily see an upset in 1 of those 2 matches and an NCAA berth could be on the line as well. Case isn't in action again until GLCAs, which I don't believe they've played before. They could enter as the 4th or 5th seed and see Denison in the quarters which would be interesting.

Brief Weekend Preview Feb 25-27

Several matches are happening this weekend, but there are 4 which I'd like to mention because I think they are fairly significant. A team I haven't talked much about is Gustavus, and they will be in competitive D3 action for the first time this season when they take on Chicago. The Maroons are much more talented and should be able to win handily, but the Gusties have an opportunity to make a statement that they are back with a good showing. Chicago took care of a weak Kzoo team last weekend and now they face a similar foe in Gustavus. I expect the Gusties to be slightly stronger than they were last year now that Coach Valenti has a year under his belt, but I don't expect them to be any match for Chicago this weekend. Also note that Gustavus takes on DePauw Sunday, so looking at the results of those matches may allow us to compare the strength of Chicago and DePauw. Next we have a conference rivalry between Vassar and Skidmore. Although this match isn't all that important on the national scene, it's hugely important for these 2 teams as this rivalry runs very deep. The winner of this will get a leg up in the Liberty League and will most likely find themselves ranked in the next ITA poll. It's important for Skidmore to bounce back after a rough season last year, but equally as important for new Vassar coach John Cox to begin to establish a dynasty in the conference so he can build his program into a national power.

Third we have Cal Lutheran versus Pomona-Pitzer in the Kingsmen's first match without Nick Ballou. I'm interested to see how the Kingsmen respond in this. This is a huge match for PP to get a win on their Pool C resume and one they desperately need so they can potentially avoid the #4 seed in the conference tournament. They could use the confidence and this match would take them into the top 20 in the country. I'm not completely sure what to expect of Cal Lu from an effort standpoint, so we'll see how they fair. These 2 both played Brandeis in the past few days with Cal Lu w/Ballou winning 6-3 and PP winning 8-1 after a doubles sweep. I think this could be a big opportunity for the Hens and I expect them to come out with a win against a depleted and reeling CLU squad. The loser of this is in huge trouble when it comes to making NCAAs.

The main event this weekend is the next chapter in the rivalry between Carnegie Mellon and Kenyon. These 2 have played some great matches over the past 3 years and despite not being in the same conference or region, they have become great rivals with a mutual respect for each other. Kenyon defended their home court early in the season against Chicago, but this CMU team is much more focused and disciplined, meaning the Lords will need to raise their game to win. CMU certainly has the talent edge and they have the opportunity to really make a statement that they are a top 10 team who should be taken seriously this year. If they can be mentally tough and win in a hostile environment, they will have just about clinched an NCAA berth. This could potentially be a huge match for NCAA seeding and hosting, so even though its not a must win for either team, it's a result that we will come back to later in the season for sure. Kenyon seems to be very confident so far this season and they've had some quality wins, but this is by far their toughest D3 test of the spring. I think they need to play excellent doubles to win this match, but I like a more experienced CMU team to win a close one. If the Lords can weather the storm early and remain even deep into the match, they can win. This match is CMU's for the taking if they are focused and want it, and I think they leave Ohio with a huge win on Saturday.

Kenyon Tops Chicago 6-3

Box Score

Most of yesterday I was thinking that I was stupid for picking against a team that has 6 4-stars, 2 3-stars and 3 international players in favor of a team that boasts no 4-star players. It's almost like a curse at this point. Play on the Chicago Men's team = lose all the abilities you had to win in junior tennis. This match was never close and my hat goes off to the Lords for doing what they had to do to win. Apologies to Kenyon, but to me this is much more about Chicago underachieving year after year and digging themselves into early season holes. They've done it again. Marty Perry needs to sit down and figure out what is going on here, because obviously something is not right. A team with this talent in the hands of Roger Follmer is top 5 in the country, because he would not allow this to happen. It's almost like Chicago was completely unprepared to play at 3 of the 6 singles spots as well as #1 doubles. OK, so Kenyon can win the match, but I think even the Lords would agree they shouldn't be blowing out Chicago, and this is exactly what happened. The Maroons never had a chance in this one and I almost feel dumb for overestimating Chicago year after year. If there's any piece of good news for UChi, it's that it is only February and they do have chances to rebound, although with 6 spots and so many teams in the running, they will really need to pick up their play to qualify for the tournament. Their first few matches certainly were an indication that they just aren't that good. They played like a team who should not be in the top 20 last night, even though the quality of their roster screams top 10. I don't know if they are so arrogant that they don't care about winning, but they are wasting their time practicing tennis every day if they are going to perform like this in matches. It's become laughable at this point, and Kenyon made them look terrible last night. I underestimated the Lords, and if last night was any indication, they can play with anyone in the country. On a final note, Chicago needs to regroup for Denison today, because if they lose, which they clearly can, they may as well not play the rest of their season.

#13 Chicago @ #15 Kenyon Preview - Feb 11

Kenyon's Paul Burgin

I thought I'd post this a few days ahead of time to let the fact that the season is finally here soak in. This is the first big match of the year and it has my #13 squaring off against #15 in a match where Chicago desperately needs a win. If you really take a look at the Maroons schedule, they are in huge trouble NCAA-wise if they don't win this match. And I mean huge trouble. The rest of the season, their only realistically winnable D3 matches that would count as quality wins are against DePauw, Wash U, and probably a crack at CMU in the UAA 3rd place match. If they lost this, even going 2 for 3 in those wouldn't guarantee them a spot. A win against Kenyon on the other hand, would probably put the Maroons in the top 12 and they may jump their NESCAC Pool C competitors in the rankings, with no matches in sight that would knock them out of the top 12. You know Chicago is going to bring a feisty attitude into Kenyon, and they will be very confident that they will leave with a win. The Maroons have been anything but impressive in the past few weeks, but none of that matters if they come out on top Friday night.

The other side of the coin is a young team who is trying to make a statement that they still belong in the conversation of best teams in the country. They put up a great effort in the Fall against Amherst and I'm sure coaches Thielke and Wilson have had their eye on this Friday for quite some time. Kenyon's home court advantage is one of the biggest in D3 and I expect them to come out firing in doubles to prove they aren't intimidated by Chicago. The Lords have history on their side and are 4-0 against Chicago since 2006. They aren't playing for as much, but with an inexperienced team, they certainly want to start well. They should go into this match with a nothing to lose attitude and know that they can win if they play well.

I expect Kenyon to get ahead in doubles. In the 4 matches they've played so far, Chicago is 0-4 at #1 doubles. Kenyon should take that spot and I would expect them to get either #2 or #3 to lead 2-1. The Maroons are the more talented team in singles, so I think a lot depends on how they play. I would expect Zhang to top Polster, and Chicago should win at #6, but the other 4 can really go either way. I think Kenyon has a slight edge with the more experienced Burgin at #2 and Ye at #5. This match should come down to 3 and 4 singles. Chicago really needs to play well to win and I'm going with Kenyon in a close 5-4 win that may come down to the last match. The Maroons have the potential to come in and absolutely dominate, and I think the rest of the country would take notice if they do. I'm also not sure if Chicago will come in with the same lineup they've been using, so that could potentially be a factor as well.

NOTE: If anyone is at the match and would e-mail me occasional score updates, I will post them on my Twitter to share with everyone.

2011 Team Preview #10: Kenyon

Jeremy Polster

Coach: Scott Thielke, 15th Season
Location: Gambier, Ohio
Conference: NCAC
2008 Ranking: 7
2009 Ranking: 7
2010 Ranking: 12
2011 Projected: 15

Kenyon has always been a good team. In the early and middle part of the decade, they consistently won their conference and qualified for the NCAA tournament. The past 3 years, the Lords became an elite team. Even they will admit much of this was due to Mike Greenberg's leadership ability on and off the court. That era is now over, and it remains to be seen whether Kenyon will go back to being a good team, or remain as an elite team. This elite team could beat any team on any day, and we saw that at 2009 Indoors when they took down the eventual national champions. I don't see that potential in this year's team. I mentioned in a post a few weeks ago that Kenyon is probably the most inexperienced team of anyone expected to be in the top 15 this year. They still have veteran Jeremy Polster, who should be an NCAA singles qualifier this year, and will try to fill the leadership role left by Kenyon's 4 graduates. Polster is the key player, likely to be in the 1 singles and 1 doubles spots for the majority of the season. He is the only player on this team who has really played in a big match. The other potential weapon for Kenyon is sophomore Paul Burgin, who's biggest match was probably the Indoors Semi against Cruz last year. Burgin has the potential to be a very good #2, and he will need to provide a lot of wins for Kenyon this year. Two other top players for Kenyon are transfer CJ Williams and sophomore Kevin Ye. Both should be strong in the middle of the lineup. This is probably as close as Denison has been to Kenyon since 2007, but I still don't think they are good enough to topple the Lords. This is Kenyon's last year enjoying fairly easy conference titles as DePauw joins the NCAC in 2012. I expect Kenyon to win the conference comfortably this year and they most likely will make it to the Sweet 16. If Coach Thielke can take this team further than that and get them in the top 10, he deserves Coach of the Year. They aren't as deep as their competition and based upon historical results, they aren't as strong at the top either. One thing to mention is Kenyon just hired an outstanding assistant coach in Ross Wilson who should really help this team. Kenyon plays a very tough schedule this year and notable matches include Chicago, Carnegie Mellon, Whitman in the Stag-Hen 1st round, and the GLCA tournament with DePauw and Carnegie Mellon. Kenyon should be a very good team this year, especially when considering their inexperience. I think they have to wait a couple years to get back to "elite" status.

Regional Preview: Whitewater

I actually voted for the regional in the poll because I would love to see the Kenyon-Trinity (TX) regional final. Before I discuss that I think Carleton deserves a few words as well. Carleton is making only their 4th appearance in NCAA history after ending Gustavus' run of conference titles. I don't think Carleton will pose much of a problem for Trinity (TX) because of the Tigers strong doubles play so I would suspect a 5-0 or 5-1 for Trinity just because they are a little too strong. Carleton has had a great season after the transfer of their top player, but it's a little much asking them to beat a top 15 powerhouse like Trinity.

So that brings us to the match that I've been hoping for since a month ago. Kenyon is unfortunate to not be playing at home because they have such a great core of seniors. Trinity only goes as far as their doubles will take them. I didn't realize that Kenyon's #3 doubles team is 15-1 on the season. However, this team beat DePauw 9-7 and that same team from DePauw was beaten 8-1 by Trinity (TX). The Tigers have to come out hot because they simply cannot afford to lose this spot. At 2 doubles, I like Trinity as the favorites. 1 doubles is another tough one and it pits two of the best teams in the country against each other. Another big spot that I think Trinity must win. I'm going to say the Tigers will lead 2-1 after doubles. Frey is tough, but I can't pick against Greenberg. The same goes for 2, Piskacek has had a rough year but you have to like his chances. 3 would be the one spot where I think Trinity (TX) will be favored. 4 is another must win for Trinity and 5 and 6 should go to Kenyon. I see a potential doubles sweep for Trinity, but I don't think Kenyon can do the same. Like I said, Trinity will go as far as their doubles takes them. I'm taking Kenyon in a very close 5-3 propelled by the bottom of their lineup, but if Trinity can sweep doubles or get a win in the bottom 2 singles spots, they could win this match and find themselves in the Final 8.

3 Saturday Previews - April 10th

The calendar shows a very full weekend ahead of us however only a few of these matches will have implications on the national rankings. I'll go over 3 Saturday matches which I feel are the most important of the weekend.

Salisbury at Johns Hopkins

I was quite impressed with Salisbury until yesterday. This has happened before, but one good hour of tennis made Salisbury into a legitimate team and this can happen with the 9 point system. Play great doubles on your home court against a good team and suddenly people take you seriously. This worked for Salisbury but obviously their season comes down to whether or not they can win their conference. The match this weekend is as simple as who will recover better after recent poor results? Hopkins was blown out twice last weekend but they are now on their home courts against a team who is significantly less talented than them. Salisbury was on a high and riding a win streak but now they are sweating about making the tournament. I don't see how Salisbury can win more than 2 singles matches in this one. Hopkins is just better everywhere. The Gulls need a doubles sweep, and that's going to be difficult on the road. I also wouldn't be surprised if Hopkins makes some adjustments to their doubles lineup after being swept two days in a row by teams they are equivalent to. I'm taking Hopkins in a 7-2 win on Saturday because I'm just not a believer in Salisbury right now.

GLCA Tournament

Four contenders are competing this weekend. Kenyon is the host and top seed followed by CMU, Kalamazoo and DePauw. Weird things have happened at this tournament in the past so I'm not going to speculate about the finals, but I will take a look at the potential semis. DePauw hasn't seen any serious D3 action in a while and they know they are out of Pool C if they don't win this tournament. They actually match up decently well against Kenyon, but the problem is I don't know how DePauw is going to get ahead in doubles. Both teams have strong teams 1 through 3 but you have to like Kenyon. I think Kenyon will manage to get a 6-3 win, but they could potentially get in trouble if DePauw wins 2 or 3 doubles. In the other semi, Kalamazoo has been struggling since losing Patrick Boyd, who played 1 doubles and 4 singles. He was a key to their wins against DePauw and Chicago. Even with him, I don't know if they can beat a hot Carnegie team. CMU has been great in singles and I see Kzoo winning two matches max of the 6. If Kzoo wants to win, they need to sweep doubles. I don't know if the CMU doubles sweep of Hopkins was a fluke, but if CMU plays doubles like they had been in previous matches, a sweep isn't out of the question. I'll take CMU 6-3.

Cal Lutheran at CMS

I've been looking forward to this match for about two weeks now and it's time to determine who the best in the West is. The thing I actually just realized is that these teams will meet again the following Saturday in their conference tournament finals. With rankings out next Tuesday, I don't see how CLU could possibly be denied the #2 ranking in the country if they win this match. They are hungry to make something happen, but can they bring that intensity into Claremont and beat their bitter rival on the road? Despite the excellent top of the lineup for CMS, you have to like CLU to get 1 dubs as well as 1 and 2. I know this is harsh, but Giuffrida and Ballou have both passed test after test. Erani beat Giuffrida in the fall so that's one thing he has going for him. The question is can CMS get 5 points in the remaining 6 matches? I certainly like the Stags at the 4 and 5 positions. The Keiffer/Lim team is a question mark and this could be a huge swing point. CLU has also been rock solid at 3 singles so this could be a 4th point for them. Basically, if Cal Lu wins those 3 automatic spots I gave them, they will win. If CMS manages to steal 1 dubs or 1/2 singles, then I like the Stags.

Weekend Recap: April 2-4

7 matches of note took place over the past three days which I'll discuss in this post. I'll provide a few thoughts on each of the results.

Bowdoin took out MIT 6-3 on Friday in a fairly competitive match. Both of Bowdoin's doubles victories were extremely close and if even one of those goes MIT's way, things could have been very interesting. I've heard Pena is done for the season and I don't know if it's true or not, but that certainly hurts Bowdoin. MIT is a tricky team with good depth that could pose problems for some higher ranked teams. I believe they deserve their top 30 ranking and this is certainly a team to watch in upcoming years. Bowdoin enters NESCAC play on a high note and if the tournament started tomorrow, they would be in. They really have to play their way out of it and I think that will be tough. Things are looking bright for the Polar Bears.

Rhodes was a sleeper coming into this year and we saw that they could play with the best in the country when they split singles in a 6-3 loss to Kenyon. Their doubles needs improvement and this showed once again today in a 6-3 loss to the 16th ranked Trinity (TX) Tigers. Trinity was able to win #1 and #2 doubles 8-0 and complete the sweep with an 8-6 at 3. Rhodes won 4 first sets to stay in the match but Trinity proved to be too strong at the top of the lineup. I think Rhodes could pose a potential threat to DePauw and Trinity in the conference tournament if they can improve doubles. They can play with the best in the country in singles but they can't afford to be down 2-1 or 3-0 every match.

I think Hampden-Sydney just gets pumped up to play Washington & Lee. They got trounced at home by Salisbury in a match that was never close. I expected Salisbury to win, but not like this. HSC is all about beating W&L and that's good, but they need to produce against other teams as well. Obviously they are a strong team, but this result certainly didn't show it. Salisbury reinforced their #14 national ranking in this match and they are playing great tennis heading into their Wednesday clash with Mary Washington.

I was quite surprised when Redlands jumped on top of CMS in doubles because I think this is a real strength for the Stags. Even with the 2-1 lead, I had a feeling CMS would win comfortably. I've referred to this many times before, but Redlands isn't a complete team this year. They don't have the top of the lineup and they also aren't winning with their depth, so there's just no way for them to compete with the teams they normally are competitive with. A tough year for the Bulldogs, but give credit to CMS who played great singles. They see Cal Lu in a week in what will be an absolute war. I expect a great match next Saturday from both teams, but CMS needs to watch themselves in doubles after their Saturday performance.

Vassar was undefeated going into their match at home against Trinity (CT) on Saturday although they hadn't faced a real test yet. Trinity (CT) is a strong team and they proved to have a little too much firepower in singles. This was a much needed win for Trinity (CT) who is still looking to jump Bowdoin and Chicago for an NCAA tournament spot. I like this result for both teams, but the thing that jumps out to me is that Trinity (CT) is still struggling in doubles. They aren't going to beat a Williams or Bowdoin if they keep losing doubles because those teams can match their firepower in singles. Vassar proved they are a good team who can knock off a top 15 opponent on the right day. They have a shot at Williams this upcoming weekend so we will see how they do.

I'm just as guilty as everyone else, but I'm pretty sure the majority has been wrong in the weekly poll almost every time. We had 57-41 in favor of Johns Hopkins as a prediction for Saturday. Not only did Hopkins lose, they didn't win a match. I read that Kenyon was down 7-4 at #3 dubs and came back to win and when this happened, the match was over because we knew Greenberg was getting a win. Hopkins has the ability to come back being down 2-1, but not 3-0. This was Kenyon's first big win of the spring and they did it in very convincing fashion. If they play like that every match, they can beat anyone in the country. We knew Hopkins had tough back-to-back matches and after I saw this result I was sure they would bounce back on Sunday.

Carnegie has been struggling with doubles over and over and they decided it was finally time for a change. Despite only flipping two of their players, it worked and they came out and swept Hopkins in three close matches to go up 3-0. Hopkins won 4 of 6 singles against CMU at Indoors, so I thought it was still a possibility that JHU could win. CMU played just as well in singles highlighted by a win at #1 singles to take the match 7-2. They proved that they too can beat anyone in the country on the right day and they deserve to be in the top 10. If they keep up the good doubles, they will be very tough to beat. Hopkins just had a rough weekend and needs to regroup. I think they will only drop to #10 so they are still in line to be a top seed in their region for NCAAs. What they can't afford is another loss to a team ranked below them and I have no doubt this is still an excellent team.

Johns Hopkins at Kenyon Preview

Mike Greenberg and Will Vandenberg, Kenyon

This is just a very even match and one that I had circled on calendar at the beginning of the season. A chance for both teams to get a good win against a top 10 opponent. All season, I have been questioning Kenyon's depth and talking highly of Hopkins depth, but I think the Lords depth may just be what gives them a win. Kenyon is known for their large and rowdy crowds and this could play a big part in the outcome of doubles. Greenberg-Brody have been up and down at the #1 position and they take on the very steady team of Maldow-Wang. There is a ton of experience on this court but I think Kenyon should come away with a win at home. 2 of the best #2 doubles teams in the country will be squaring off and this is also a very tough call. #3 doubles is very even as well. I would expect Kenyon to come away with 2 of the 3 doubles at home. If Hopkins wants to win this match, #1 doubles may be a spot they need to win.

Greenberg should take care of business at #1 and #2 is a huge spot. Piskacek is in a bit of a slump and Wang has been having good results despite his recent loss to Kzoo. I'll come back to this. Elgort and Polster face off in a match between two of the most underrated #3's in the country. I'm going with Hopkins in this. At 4, Vandenberg takes on Hersh and you have to go with the senior over the freshman to give Kenyon their 4th point. Burgin and Barnaby should be a good contest at 5, but I'll take Kenyon to clinch the match. 6 could go either way. #2 is a spot Hopkins needs if they want to have a chance to win, but Kenyon can afford to lose it. I'm taking Kenyon with a very tight 6-3 victory. If Hopkins can somehow win and then go to Pittsburgh on Sunday and win again, they will move on to my list of legitimate Final 4 contenders. In the same breath, if Kenyon can come out and dominate Hopkins, I will also be impressed. I'm looking forward to a great match Saturday.

Kenyon @ Emory Post-Match Thoughts

The scoreboard says 6-3 but I would argue that the match was much closer than that. Taking a look at doubles to begin, Emory took #3 in a very close match as expected. You have to expect the Eagles to take evenly matched spots at home. The surprises were the first two doubles lines. The Goodwin/Pottish team is not living up to expectations and Kenyon took advantage of this with a new #1 doubles combo giving them an early lead. Kenyon held match points at 2nd doubles but wasn't able to close it out. I'm impressed with Emory's strength at the #2 doubles spot so far this season. Good singles wins for Kenyon at #3 and #4 singles. These are spots that both teams really need in their respective runs toward a national title. Piskacek is not living up to expectations in singles this year and he was beaten by the best #2 player in the country. Greenberg held match points at the #1 position and this would have made the score 4-3 in favor of Kenyon heading to the last two matches. Pottish held his title as top singles player in the country and managed to get the win for his team. Emory is always tough down low in the lineup so you have to figure they would get at least 1 of the 2 remaining spots. I think this is a somewhat positive result for both teams. Emory is obviously very tough but I don't know if they look like a FInal 4 team right now. Kenyon seems to be improving and was right on the doorstep of winning against the current top 3 in the country.

Wash U vs. Kenyon Pre-Match Thoughts

At first glance I want to say the Bears will win this one easily but it's hard to know about a neutral site at 8am. Anything can happen. Looking at the doubles, I think Wash U has a clear advantage at 1. 2 and 3 are both questionable. I think if Kenyon wants to have any chance they need both of these spots. Kenyon needs to take a lead into singles play. 2 years ago, a Watts-Greenberg match at 1 would be much anticipated but I definitely think Watts should win easily. I like Piskacek over Stein at #2. Putterman and Woods should be able to win at 3 and 4 for Wash U. 2 is a match between freshmen and it's a tough call but I like Burgin after his performance at Indoors. 6 is a huge spot but I'm going to take Levy. Like I said a lot depends on doubles, but I'm going to take Wash U in a 6-3 win. This should show Kenyon they need to improve and Wash U should definitely benefit from a win.

Team By Team Discussion from Indoors and Other Weekend Thoughts

Gustavus Adolphus - The Gusties did about as well as they could this weekend. If you told me they would get 5 points over 3 matches, I may not have believed you. I thought it would be more like 2 or 3. I think this is encouraging for them going forward when it comes to winning the conference. With a homecourt advantage I think they could sweep doubles against Carleton and also manage to find 2 singles wins. Gustavus could finish the year in the top 20 but they have work to do.

DePauw - The Tigers played great against Emory and wilted a bit after that loss. I expected them to take 2 of the doubles against Hopkins and when they didn't do that they were done. They have a huge weekend next weekend and we will really see what they are made of. They could get a really nice jump towards an Pool C NCAA Bid if they can knock off both Chicago and Kzoo on their homecourts. If I'm the Tigers I'm pretty happy with my weekend because we saw flashes of brilliance from them on Day 1.

Carnegie Mellon - I should have mentioned the word volatility in their season preview. I thought CMU would be a new team after their Fall Amherst win but they were the same old team this weekend. They let Cruz off the hook and weren't nearly as close as I thought they would be against Hopkins. They need to watch out for a tricky CNU team next Tuesday. Also, we will see what they learned from this weekend when they go to Cali. 3 top 15 teams out there. 0 wins = very overrated, 1 win = their typical 12-15 season, 2 wins = potential Elite 8 contender, All 3 wins = national championship contender. I'm not sure if that near upset of Cruz was a fluke or not.

Johns Hopkins - Yes they went 2-1, but the Day 1 match is the one they really needed for their confidence. They beat 2 good teams on Day 2, but they are also better than those teams. They have a month of down time from D3 play and their next match is against a very dangerous NCW team. This is a must win for Hopkins. I expected a lot more from them at the 3 through 5 singles positions. This is supposed to be their strength and the wins weren't coming. They need to start winning at these spots if they want to make a national title run. Doubles has room for improvement but they got better as the weekend progressed.

Kenyon - Maybe the most disappointed team after this weekend. A good showing against GAC, the doubles loss is expected against the fired up Gusties. The Cruz match is the one I thought they would run through. Their seniors let them down and this is the core of their team. If they are down 2-1 in doubles, their top 2 need to win or they are done. They just don't have the depth to match the other top 5 teams in my eyes. I still think this team can win a national title, I just expected a Finals appearance from them this weekend and they didn't produce.

Emory - Overall, a pretty shaky tournament from the Eagles. They could have lost to DePauw, but used their experience to grind through that one. The Eagles are always a national championship contender no matter what happens in the early portion of their season. They lost to their heated rival, but bounced back nicely against Kenyon. The good thing about this weekend from Emory is they will see all 3 of these teams again during their season so they will find out how they've progressed a team. I'm still searching for an update on Lopp because I think he can make a huge difference.

Wash U - An amazing first 2 days from the Bears followed by a poor finals performance. They were just flawless on Day 1 crushing a potential top 5 opponent and then followed it up by beating a very good Emory team with a doubles sweep and some good singles play by the bottom of their lineup. They showed they have the depth to compliment Watts at the top of the lineup. They play Kenyon in 3 weeks so we'll see if they learned from the Cruz match. I was expecting them to roll through the finals but it goes to show that even the top teams still need work.

Cruz - What can we say about these guys besides what a performance. They won 3 matches which they should have lost and took home another Indoor title. They funny thing is if they played Wash U every day for the next 10 days at a neutral site, I'll take the Bears in 8 of those. Just an amazing coaching job by Hansen and unbelievable leadership by Pybas and Vartabedian taking the team on their shoulders and leading them in all 3 matches. Even though they won the whole thing, as Hansen said in the match recap, a lot of work still needs to be done before they can defend their national title. A great 3 day performance, but I'm not a believer yet.

Besides the final of Indoors, the most surprising result for me is Kzoo over Chicago. The first thing that pops into my head is it's not even March and Chicago is already in a huge hole for NCAAs. Pool C is too deep to have losses like this, even if Kzoo ends up being a top 20 team. Chicago needs to rebound and beat DePauw next weekend or they can basically count themselves out of the tournament already. How do you go from losing 5-4 to the Indoors finalists to losing 7-2 to a team outside the top 20? I give Kzoo credit. They played a decent match against Kenyon and this match showed they are making great strides as they won every match easily. This is a top 20 team to me after this weekend and they could pull an upset this year when we are least expecting it.

CMS lost to an NAIA team 5-4. That same NAIA team was beaten by Cruz 8-1. This worries me a little bit. CMS isn't getting production from the middle of their lineup. They need to step up given the depth in the top 10 this year.

Cal Lu is a team to watch, as is CNU. Both have started well this season and both have top 20 potential if all their players play well. CLU got a good start with a win against Pomona-Pitzer on the road, winning 5 singles matches. CNU has been playing mostly D1 teams and they have a match that I'm really looking forward to this Sunday against Vassar.

Indoors Recap and Thoughts

Since Gustavus was doing live stats and everyone was following, I decided to save my recap for the tournament and thoughts for after. Bear with me because this will be a pretty extensive post.

I'll start with Day 1. You all read my predictions so I had some idea of what I thought would happen. The first two matches were shockers to me, particularly in doubles. We have Wash U come out and destroy Hopkins with 8-4 across the board. I attribute part of this to Hopkins not playing a match before Indoors and the other part is the Bears just being ready to play after their rough weekend last weekend. I expected more out of Hopkins 2 team this weekend because this is a huge spot. Maldow/Wang won't win enough carry Hopkins in doubles and I believe their 3 team of doubles specialists could be broken down by two very good singles players. Wash U jumped to the early lead and the match wasn't really in doubt. Watts made a statement at 1 and 2 and 3 were close as expected with Wash U winning both to win the match. The bottom of the lineup was also a surprise. I expected Hopkins to be much more competitive at 4 and 5 and I think these are two very important spots for them going forward. The Bears were my favorite to win the tournament after Day 1. Emory took my advice and split up Goodwin and Pottish. This ended up backfiring for the Eagles and they found themselves almost down 3-0 in doubles. The absence of Lopp really hurts the Eagles in singles and doubles so when he is back Emory will be a much better team. Emory took top 2 as expected and managed to get a tough win at 4 to take the lead. Redmond clinched the match for the Eagles at 6. I think we knew that DePauw needed the doubles sweep if they were going to win. The afternoon matches brought what I expect was a large Gustie crowd to the Swanson Tennis Center creating an intense atmosphere. Gustavus used the crowd to hang with Kenyon in doubles and almost managed to come out on top 2-1 after the doubles. Like I expected, the good news ended there for Gustavus as Kenyon swept singles. We knew this would happen, Gustavus was just overmatched at this tournament by the other 7 teams. The other match was more interesting. #3 doubles was a huge spot for Cruz this weekend and I don't think many people realized that. This was supposed to be an iffy spot for the Slugs and they won handily on Friday giving the Slugs a 2-1 lead. CMU looked like they were coming back after taking first sets at 1 and 4. The Slugs always fight though and came back at both spots to wrap up the match 5-1 before CMU would win the final 3 matches which are pretty irrelevant in my opinion. It's 5-4 on the scoreboard but I don't think things were all that close. Looking back, CMU won 4 first sets in singles and they just weren't able to finish. I wasn't all that impressed with Cruz even though they got the first win.

The morning of Day 2 brought 2 results which were expected and don't need to be discussed all that much. Hopkins had a fairly routine win over DePauw, it was never really close and CMU destroyed the Gusties in doubles and this was never really close either. Without the crowd's energy, GAC wasn't able to produce the same level and only won 8 games in 3 matches. CMU won 5 of the singles as expected. Hopkins also had a good singles performance, but losses at 5 and 6 had to be alarming for them. The afternoon was where the real action was. Wash U came out firing again and won all 3 doubles. Emory mixed up their doubles teams putting their all-star combo back at 1, but this just didn't work out for them. The Bears were able to take a 3-0 lead and we thought Watts would be an automatic win at #1 so I was pretty sure the Bears would cruise in singles. About 90 mins later, Emory looked like they could win this match. They got a masterful performance from Pottish, and Egan redeemed himself after a poor Day 1 showing to make things 3-2. Here is the turning point. If Emory completes their comeback at #5, I think they win this match, but they weren't able to do so. Two freshmen were battling and Parizher came out on top to put the Bears in excellent position needing only 1 of the remaining 3 matches. Levy was able to clinch the win and send the Bears to the finals. I'll address doubles sweeps later in this post because I have some commentary on it. I think Wash U is the better team and I'm anxious to see these two play again after they both have a chance to mature as teams and particularly after Emory gets Lopp back. Going into the second semifinal, I thought the Lords would have no trouble with the Slugs. Hansen just works magic and gets his guys ready to go. They ran through 1 and 3 dubs. I actually expected the Slugs to win both of these spots but not with the ease that they did. Kenyon kept themselves in it with an expected win at 2 from what I still think is their best team, and should be their #1 team. Burgin looks to be one of the best freshmen in the country and he tied things up 2-2 at #5. The two huge matches that allowed the Slugs to win this match were 1 and 2. If I'm a betting man, I don't think Greenberg and Piskacek both lose. After winning those top two spots, the Slugs were in control. My hat goes off to Vartabedian for easily handling Piskacek. Clearly the MVP of the tournament in my eyes. The Slugs were able to get their 5th win and wrap up the match for their 2nd upset in as many days. Yes they were the #1 seed, but if you get right down to it, I don't think they were as talented as CMU or Kenyon, yet they managed to get wins in both. The night matches were both as expected for me. DePauw rested some guys but they were still able to beat Gustavus 6-3. This was the most competitive match of the tournament got GAC and it has to be tough for them to take 8th at their own tournament. I think it will be a long spring for Gustavus and possibly a short career for Valentini if he doesn't turn things around with the tradition that this program carries. DePauw played two good matches in their first two, so they got a much deserved win. They are a team that I wouldn't want to see later in the season. #3 doubles was the huge spot in the CMU-Hopkins battle. CMU needed to be up 2-1 if they wanted to win and they couldn't do so. Hopkins won at the top 2 spots as expected and after this we knew they would get at least 1 of the bottom 4. I'm looking forward to a match between these two later in the season, but I think Hopkins is the better team. I think they are both deserving of their top 10 rankings at this point and both have the potential to improve.

Day 3 brought two intriguing matches. In the 3rd-4th, I expected a pretty routine win from Emory and that's what happened. Kenyon matches up very poorly against Emory and after the doubles sweep, we knew things were over. The Lords really weren't close at any position. I think some team switching could be in order for the Lords and I expect to see some different doubles teams their next time out because what they are doing now just isn't working. Emory rebounded nicely from the day before. They got two good wins from the best 1-2 punch in the country to seal the match. This result was as expected. I was so sure that Wash U was going to destroy Cruz, and the opposite happens. UCSC played magnificent doubles, surrendering 11 games in 3 matches. Even after the doubles sweep, I still thought Wash U would win. If they could survive the top of the lineup and get 2 of 3 in the top 3 spots I thought the Bears would be well on their way to victory. Watts did his part making the score 3-1. Koening just came up huge for the Slugs and won another battle between freshmen to give the Slugs a 4-1 lead and put the match in the hands of Vartabedian. I want him on the court if I'm Bob Hansen after all the great things he has done. Vartabedian didn't disappoint and gave the Slugs their 3rd upset win and the National Indoor title.

I'm going to do a team by team discussion in the next few days but for now I just have some general thoughts. I don't know how else to say this, but I think the 9 point system has to be re-evaluated. 1 dubs is ahead, 2 dubs gets a fluke break and 3 dubs get a huge momentum burst. Boom, the match is over, don't even bother playing singles. Things can be decided in 10-15 minutes and I don't think it's fair. These teams are so evenly matched that it is so rare that a team will come out and win 5 singles matches. Mentally, it's nearly impossible to come out of an 0-3 hole.

I think we are in for another 2008 where anyone can beat anyone else. I got pretty much no feedback from the results this weekend about who's strong and who's not because they just didn't make any sense. Yes, Cruz won the tournament but on paper they are probably the 8th or 9th best team in the country. If the tournament is played again next weekend, they can easily lose 1st round. If you want my best teams in the country after this weekend, the answer is Middlebury and Amherst. Not that I wasn't impressed with the 8 teams this weekend, but there is no one that stood out, even Cruz. I think any of the top 5 finishers, and maybe even CMU, could have won the tournament. There is a lot of tennis left to be played and I think we are in for a very unpredictable and crazy season if this weekend is any indicator.

National Indoors Preview: #4 Kenyon vs #5 Gustavus Adolphus

Mike Greenberg, Kenyon

Normally, this is Gustavus' tournament. They are always a threat to win it, even when other teams clearly have stronger rosters than them. This year is the exception to that, especially since the courts were resurfaced after the '08 season. This evened the playing field quite a bit as we saw last year with GAC having a first round loss before recovering nicely for 5th place. The Gusties first result certainly isn't promising for their chances this weekend after beating UWEC 5-4 on their home courts. No amount of fans and no amount of energy or confidence will enable to Gustavus to win this match. They are just too weak this year and this is a true rebuilding time. Starting with doubles, if Gustavus is going to win anywhere, it has to be at #1. Kenyon switched their lineup last match and went with a Greenberg-Brody team at 1, so that's what I'm expecting to see this weekend. Vandenberg and someone should be good at #3. GAC doesn't have a chance at #2 and they have a chance at #3, but it's small. Because it's Indoors, I'll spot the Gusties a win and say Kenyon leads 2-1 after doubles. The good news for GAC ends there. Greenberg and Piskacek both win in straights and Polster, Burgin and Brody definitely win the bottom 3 spots. GAC may have a chance against Vandenberg at 3 but I doubt it. I'll take Kenyon 8-1 with a singles sweep, they may surrender 1 set.

Weekend Thoughts Feb 5-7

We had several top 25 teams in action and I'll just go through each quickly. I'll touch on Trinity (TX), Wash U, Chicago and finally Kenyon vs Kalamazoo. There were other teams in action but I thought these were most important.

Trinity (TX) played three matches and it is extremely clear where they need work even after the first weekend. They played 2 D2 schools both ranked top 30 as well as an NAIA school. They went 7-2 in doubles and 4-14 in singles, including 0-9 in the 3 through 5 singles spots. Now I don't doubt their opponents were good but they won fairly comfortably in doubles and just got steamrolled in singles barely winning sets. They have a while before their first big D3 matches, but if I were the Tigers I'd be working on my singles.

Wash U played an annual D2 powerhouse in Drury University. I really like the fact that the Bears won the #2 doubles match, because I think this will be a huge spot for them this season. An interesting singles lineup for the Bears with Woods moving down to 4 and Stein up to 2, but they played Drury very tough. The match came down to the wire with Drury winning all 3 of the 3-set matches to take a 6-3 win. If I'm the Bears, I like the fact that I was right there at the end. This is a pretty good result for them going to Indoors. I think they need to focus on getting ahead of Hopkins in doubles and if they can do this, they are tough to beat.

Chicago went to Madison to play UW-Whitewater. Although they lost 2 of the doubles, they really were good in singles, winning all 6 matches. Chicago has Wash U this weekend and they need to be ready to play. I'll do a preview of the match later this week.

The big match of the weekend was Kenyon vs Kzoo. I expected a little more out of Kenyon and I thought this match would be 8-1 or 9-0. Although Kzoo lost, they put up a good fight despite the fact they weren't really close to winning. Vandenberg losing at 3 is understandable, but Brody should not be losing at 6 and the 1 doubles spot is huge for Kenyon. If Greenberg/Vandenberg aren't a force this year, the Lords have no shot at a national title. If Kzoo can consistently play this well, they could be a top 20 team this year. I think this match showed both teams they have a lot of room for improvement.

Weekend Thoughts

I'm going to share a few thoughts mostly about Cruz-Whitman but I'll also touch on the Kenyon and Chicago matches to begin.

We've seen Chicago a good bit this season and this result was fairly in line with their first few matches. I found one thing a bit odd about this match. Granted, I don't know UIC's team at all since it is comprised of mostly foreigners, but Chicago won the spots in singles where they are supposed to be weak, and lost where they are supposed to be strong. The question was how much Alexander and Pawa would add to the team and they certainly made great strides with a win this weekend. However those two did drop the deciding doubles point. I'm assuming UIC is the quality of a team ranked about 10-12 in D3 judging by the scores of the match. Chicago's 5 and 6 need to win, or at least pick up their play if they want to have any shot at Wash U.

Kenyon played a tough Toledo team who's actually in a rebuilding year shown by their 7-0 loss to Xavier. I may be mistaken, but I believe Toledo typically flirts with the top 75 in D1. Kenyon hung around in doubles, but the Greenberg/Vandenberg combo lost another tiebreak (the first was to Amherst), and Kenyon surrendered the all important doubles point. My favorite Kenyon doubles team won their match comfortably. Kenyon's singles after their top 2 just aren't strong enough for them to be down 2-1 in doubles. If they aren't up in doubles in the semis of Indoors against Cruz or CMU, they are going to have a tough time winning. They switched up their singles lineup a bit from the fall. Greenberg lost a close one to what I assume was a very strong player and Piskacek came down from 5-0 in the 3rd to win. Vandenberg surprised me with a win at 3, and Polster should be one of the best in the country at 5. Overall, a pretty good performance from Kenyon, but they need to improve if they want a taste of the Final 4.

Saturday afternoon I said to myself that the Cruz-Whitman match had upset written all over it. Everything was perfect. An outdoor team coming indoors, having to deal with a hungry team who's under-appreciated playing in front of a big crowd. I even thought Whitman matched up well against the Slugs with Solomon being able to compete at the top. I also told myself I just didn't think Whitman could do it. I expected a 5-4 or 6-3. I stubbornly ignored the two team's box scores from the Lewis-Clark matches and said that Whitman would just play better. I think Whitman should be slightly disappointed with the result, but more importantly I think Cruz sent a message to the rest of the country. I read Coach Northam's blog praising his team, but I'm not praising my team when my star doubles combo blows a 7-5 lead to give Cruz the lead and more importantly turn the momentum of the match. If you are playing a better team than you, you have to take every chance you get and Whitman didn't do that. They got very unlucky with a Moshevich injury, I think they needed him to have a chance. As is they they pretty much got steamrolled in singles, winning only 2 sets. In those first 4 matches, I think they need 2 first sets to give themselves belief and they got 0. The Slugs were simply too good and frankly I'm impressed with their singles performance. If I'm the rest of the country, this is not the match I want to see from Cruz because they announced they are for real this year. Granted, Carnegie Mellon 1st rd of Indoors will just be a completely different level of talent than Whitman, but I am buying stock in Santa Cruz after this weekend.

Season Preview #9: Kenyon

General Team Discussion - The Lords have been to the Elite 8 for the past two years and it is unlikely that they will be derailed this year. They have a very strong core of four senior leaders who should help this team make a national title run. This is probably their strongest team in the history of the program, but on the flip side it is also their last chance at a top 5 finish for several years to come since they will be killed by graduations. Kenyon had an up and down year last year with a win over the national champions, but at the same time they barely made it out of their regional. They are playing the Indoors for the second straight year and are the favorites to make the finals from their half. I think Kenyon has the ability to beat anyone on the right day as shown by their fall Amherst win, it is just rare to see them all on the same page at the same time. I think this team is a darkhorse for a national championship, but I'd say another Elite 8 finish is a more realistic goal for the Lords in 2010.

Where They'll Win - If healthy, they have two of the top 10 players in the country and it's probably the best 1-2 punch with the exception of Emory. Their doubles was shaky at times in 2009, but I really like the Piskacek-Polster team as a very strong 2 team. In the 3 through 6 positions, it seems to me like they have 4 pretty equal players so I would expect whoever steps in at 5 and 6 singles to be consistent winners. Despite an NCAA quarterfinal appearance, the Greenberg-Vandenberg combo is still a question mark for me.

Where They'll Lose - As I mention above, I think #1 doubles is a potential weakness, but it could also be a potential strength. I think the biggest trouble spots for Kenyon are definitely the middle of the singles lineup. Polster seems as though he's a fairly weak 3 for a top 5 program so he needs to step up against top competition. I'm not calling it a weakness, but I need to see some good results from their #3 doubles team before I'm a believer that they are a consistent winner.

Schedule Analysis - Indoors is huge for Kenyon. The pressure is on them to make the finals and they need to come through to gain confidence. They really lucked out with their draw so they need to make the most of it. They have two tough matches in Mid-March against Emory and Wash U. These are definitely teams they will see again at nationals so they need to prove to themselves that they can be competitive. The last big one on their schedule is a home match against Hopkins which will be a tough test between two borderline top 5 teams.