Weekend Preview: San Antonio and Pittsburgh

Wash U's Adam Putterman, courtesy ITA

19 important matches happening during easily the biggest weekend of the season. I'm going to split it up into 2 different previews and tonight I'll be discussing 4 teams meeting in San Antonio and 3 teams meeting in Pittsburgh.

San Antonio Schedule (All Times Eastern)

Current National Rankings: #4 CMS, #5 Wash U, #6 Cruz, #11 Trinity (TX)

Friday: 11AM, Wash U vs. UC Santa Cruz, 330PM CMS @ Trinity (TX)
Saturday: 11AM CMS vs. Cruz, 3PM Wash U @ Trinity (TX)
Sunday: 11AM Wash U vs. CMS, 1230PM Cruz @ Trinity (TX)

A huge weekend that all of these teams had circled on their calendar as soon as the schedule was made. The home team currently has the lowest national ranking, but that can all be thrown out the window at this point because Trinity has a significant home court advantage on outdoor courts that are probably faster than their opponents are accustomed to. Blog readers like the Stags to go undefeated this weekend, but I'm not so sure about that. I don't even want to try to predict each of these matches, but I will say that I don't expect anyone to come away winless. CMS has the best chance of emerging unbeaten, but I know Trinity isn't going to just lie down because they had a rocky start to the season. 2 of the 6 matches will be rematches from Indoors, both involving Cruz, so I'll be interested to see how those results change since 6 weeks ago. Last time Trinity hosted this in 2008, Williams, Wash U and CMS came to San Antonio. If I'm not mistaken, all 4 teams were top 8 in the country at the time. CMS ended up going 0-3 and no one came away undefeated with Trinity, Williams and Wash U all going 2-1. WU went on to win the national title and CMS finished 3rd. I don't expect a repeat of that, but it's important to remember that it's hard to be in top form 3 days in a row, and when you are playing tough opponents like this, getting up for matches and preparation play a huge role that can't accurately be measured. Coach McMindes is well aware that his team needs to make a statement this weekend and I expect them to do it. They had a rocky start to the season as expected, but it's time for them to turn it on. CMS wants to establish themselves as a front runner in the national title race and they also want to make sure that they host the NCAA West regional. The CMS-Cruz match is a highlight of every season and should be fantastic. Cruz comes in not having been really tested in a while, but they typically improve throughout a season very quickly. Cruz is dangerous as always this weekend and they are putting their 8 match winning streak against Trinity on the line. Cruz lost to Wash U at Indoors and lost to CMS twice last year, so I think the Slugs have something to prove against both of those opponents. To me, Wash U is the real wildcard here. They win with doubles and depth, a combo that worked for them at Indoors. They are a high energy team who is very fit and will surely be in top shape all 3 days. I know I picked them 7th in preseason, but the way they played at Indoors they are very tough to beat. I expect 6 great matches and a lot of drama in what really is a simulation of the 3 day stretch that is the NCAA Final Rounds.

Pittsburgh Schedule (All Times Eastern)

Current National Rankings: #8 Carnegie Mellon, #25 Mary Washington

Friday: 4PM Denison @ Carnegie Mellon
Saturday: 12PM Denison vs. Mary Washington
Sunday: 11AM Mary Washington @ Carnegie Mellon

Live Stats

CMU is the favorite to dominate this weekend and they have traditionally been very tough at home over the past few seasons. They haven't seen D3 action in a couple weeks and I think they also realize that these are must-wins. They're ranked 8th in the country, but they do have a 1-3 record against ranked D3 teams this year. Granted their losses are to #3, #6 and #7, but they are lacking in the wins category. These matches would really help, because after all, they are competing for a Pool C spot. Sitting in the top 10, it's hard to foresee the fact that it's possible you don't make the tournament at all. CMU has pretty much no margin for error and although they have a long way to go, they can't slip up, especially this weekend. I don't want to get into specific NCAA scenarios, but a loss here may drop them back to 17th or 18th in the national rankings, which is something they absolutely cannot afford. That being said, this is a really good team that had Cruz on the ropes and beat a full strength CLU squad. They are 8 in the country for a reason and I expect them to show that this weekend. They play a Denison squad who is coming off a 7-2 loss against 26th ranked Rhodes, but remember that Denison was points away from beating Chicago only 7 weeks ago. Denison can play solid doubles and if CMU doesn't come prepared, they can get in trouble quickly and not be able to escape with a win. The Tartans have to respect these opponents despite their rankings and recent results. I've said plenty about Mary Wash these past few weeks and they are coming off a 7-2 loss to 23rd ranked Bates, but the fact that they look good on paper hasn't changed. This remains a talented team and the past 3 years they have played some very tight matches against Carnegie. CMU's 8th ranked team only beat #22 Mary Wash 5-4 last year, so this is another danger match for the home team. The Saturday match just serves as a confidence booster as Denison looks to improve for their upcoming shot against conference rival Kenyon, and UMW looks to move toward extending their conference streak to 13 consecutive titles. The bottom line is if CMU shows up this weekend, they will take care of business, but that is much easier said than done.

Thoughts on Other Saturday Results and Monday Preview

Besides the Stag-Hen, 4 other important matches occurred Saturday. Let me begin in the Northeast, where Bates and MIT faced off in a match of 2 solid teams who are hoping to crack the top 20 this year. I know the Bates squad thinks they've got a good team this year but MIT defended their home court and came away with a 5-4 win. This MIT squad is getting better and we could see them in the top 20 this year after last year's Sweet 16 performance. Bates desperately needed this win if they wanted to have any hope at a Pool C bid and now they will need to do some serious work and pull a few upsets in NESCAC play. Even if Bates wins at the top of the lineup they are in trouble and this showed as MIT took 3, 4 and 6 as well as 2 of the doubles matches. It's a shame to see Bates not able to come through but I just don't think they have enough players to field a team that's competitive with the best in the country. Next, we got our first look at the defending national champs as they had a convincing 8-1 against Brandeis. Brandeis hasn't been doing very well this year, but credit to Midd for beating a solid team convincingly. Midd has designed their schedule so they don't have many tough D3 matches in California and they will get a chance to develop their young team before facing a serious test. A good start for Midd, I don't think they could have asked for much more.

Working our way South we had a clash in Virginia between two programs that have been struggling. Mary Washington defeated Washington & Lee 6-3 in a match that was fairly close. UMW was able to pull out 2 3-setters as well as a 9-7 in doubles to get a desperately needed win. It's clear the Eagles are much more comfortable playing on the East coast. It's a shame to see the fall of W&L as they will most likely be out of the top 30 in the next rankings for the first time since I can remember. This team was top 15 as recently as 2008 and they just aren't doing what they need to be doing. They will probably win their conference but for as good as they used to be, this is terrible from W&L. And lastly, out West, Cruz dominated Redlands 8-1. This result really surprised me because Redlands played Emory tough on Thursday and I thought they would have a good showing here. Cruz is notoriously tough on their home courts and I'm sure they played great doubles to suck the life out of UR. Cruz also has to be pleased seeing CMS fall like they did. Redlands has to be careful with the rise of Pomona-Pitzer because the Bulldogs are far from a lock for the tournament. They are solid on paper, but they've got to string some wins together eventually and an 8-1 loss to Cruz isn't going to get it done. Well done by the Slugs and a good start to a tough next few weeks.

4 matches on the calendar taking place tomorrow, but only 1 of real significance in my opinion. The first match to mention will be Denison and Rhodes battling for what could be a spot in the top 30. Rhodes started the season by upsetting a solid UT-Tyler team and the Lynx have consistently been 3rd in their conference in recent years after Trinity (TX) and DePauw. Dension is coming off a near upset of Chicago in which the deciding match was 7-5 in the 3rd in favor of Chicago. If Denison wants to have any chance at an NCAA bid, they need this win and it will also help them to build confidence for an eventual showdown with Kenyon. Secondly, aforementioned UT-Tyler takes on Whitman in California. WC is fresh off a good SH Invite and UT-Tyler has really been struggling, falling not only to Cal Lu and Rhodes, but also to conference foe McMurry. They're hurting right now and aren't what they used to be, so I'll predict an easy win for Whitman. In the third match, Kenyon continues their spring break when they travel to Thousand Oaks to take on Cal Lutheran. With Cal Lu missing their top player, I like Kenyon to get a pretty easy win. This will be a nice cool down for Kenyon after a stressful weekend as they should win a comfortable 6-3 or 7-2. On the other hand, it will be a good test for Cal Lu to help them realize what they need to do to be competitive going forward.

The main event tomorrow will be a clash between 2 top 15 teams: Bowdoin and Trinity (TX). This will be Bowdoin's first match of the spring, and honestly I'm not too sure what to expect from them. Trinity (TX) is fresh off disappointment and I would assume they are still beaten up from a rough 2 days. 48 hours is not enough turnaround time to get a team completely healthy. This is a tough opener for Bowdoin, but as a Pool C team, they really need to be on their heels, especially after Trinity lost to both Whitman and PP. If Bowdoin loses tomorrow, and then Redlands beats PP, the Polar Bears could be in big trouble when it comes to making the tournament. I know it's tough to look that far ahead, but every match is important. I just don't trust Trinity at all right now, but a win tomorrow would at least show the country something. Likewise, Bowdoin can make a statement that they are a contender with a win tomorrow. I expect a competitive match and it's too hard to predict since I know little about this year's Bowdoin squad.

Two notes: If anyone is at the matches and will email me score updates, I will tweet them. I instantly get emails on my phone so the turnover time will be quick. I'm sure everyone who reads the blog would appreciate it. Secondly, I put the match calendar together a while ago and haven't looked to update it. If I missed any matches or if anyone knows of schedule changes, please email me and let me know. It's too much work to go through every team's schedule again and check everything.

Saturday Recap: Pawa Saves Chicago's Season and Other Results

Chicago d. Denison 5-4

It took a 7-5 win in the 3rd set of the deciding match for Chicago to beat Denison today, not even 24 hours after the Maroons were dominated by Kenyon. Denison went up 2-1 after doubles, but Chicago was able to use their talent to pull out 4 singles matches. #6 was the only match that went to 3 sets. This kept Chicago's hope for an NCAA At-Large bid alive for the time being. Coach Perry's decision to input Kunal Pawa into the lineup paid off. Despite getting a win, this is far from where Chicago needs to be, as Denison is not a top 20 team. The Maroons have to forget about this trip to Ohio and regroup before they continue with their season.

Auburn-Montgomery d. Emory 5-4

A very good result for Emory as they mixed up their doubles teams, but it didn't pay off. Browning is hoping to get his 3 strongest teams in the lineup for Indoors, but it seems he doesn't know who to go with quite yet. AUM is an excellent team, and it seems Pottish is playing at a ridiculous level in singles right now to get a win like that against a top NAIA player. At the moment, it seems like no one will even come close to Emory next weekend. I'm liking this team more and more and they can take a huge step forward if they manage to get their doubles in order.

Incarnate Word d. Trinity (TX) 5-4

Typical Trinity match. Up 2-1 after doubles and end up losing for the 2nd time in 3 days. They seem to still be toying with their singles lineup a little bit which is fine in these exhibition matches, but they need to get things in order for Friday. It's great that Trinity is playing good doubles, but I've said that they are only as good as their singles. In their last 2 matches, their singles play has stabbed them in the back, so hopefully they can get it in order, because beating Cruz is one of the hardest tasks in D3 tennis.

Point Loma d. Redlands 7-2
Vanguard d. Redlands 6-3

Not too much to say here, as both of these opponents are excellent teams. Decent results for the Bulldogs, but the thing that stuck out to me is that Darren Dahl was dominant at 4 singles in both matches, a wonderful sign for Redlands. Hammond is still missing, and he will definitely strengthen singles and should form a great 2 doubles team with Keven Wong. It's good for Redlands to have these early season tests because they need all the practice they can get.

Wash U d. McKendree 7-2

Follmer also seems to be messing with his lineup, as he mixed and matched doubles teams tonight and only played half his starters in singles. He's going to have to get his strongest singles lineup ready because we know NCW is a very deep team that can punish you in the 4 through 6 spots. Wash U does have the potential to dominate in doubles and this was another good win for them.

2011 Team Preview #26: Denison

Evan Verbofsky

Coach: Peter Burling, 21st Season
Location: Granville, Ohio
Conference: NCAC
2008 Ranking: 26
2009 Ranking: 25
2010 Ranking: NR
2011 Projected: 26

I don't have all that much to say about Denison and I don't know their team that well, but they deserve a preview after making it into my top 30. Denison fell off a little bit last year after finishing in the top 30 the previous 2 years, but more importantly their hated rival Kenyon has really been widening the gap in the NCAC and the Big Red haven't had a chance to qualify for the tournament. This is certainly the closest they have been to Kenyon talent-wise since 2007 and although Kenyon is still a heavy favorite to win the conference, Denison does have a shot at them this year. They are tricky to play at home on their fast indoor courts and they will have a chance to knock off a big time team this weekend when Chicago comes to town and may be suffering from a post-Kenyon hangover. Rhodes and Emory are both on their schedule and they also will get a crack at CMU and Mary Washington before the GLCA tournament where a likely match with Kalamazoo awaits. The Big Red has a good mix of experience and youth, but one of their problems is they don't have any individuals who stand out. I can't remember the last time Denison had someone qualify for NCAA singles and this has hurt them against better teams who can match their depth. This year's team will be anchored by senior Evan Verbofsky, junior Matt McErlean and junior Tyler Cempre, who took out Chicago's #1 Will Zhang in fall ITAs. To put it simply, this is a tricky team and I think several of their opponents may overlook them. They certainly are deserving of the #26 ranking I gave them and they may even find themselves in the top 20 sometime during the year. The main problem for Denison, and the only thing that matters, is they can't compete with Kenyon at the moment. They are getting out-recruited and out-developed by the Lords, and if they ever want to see the NCAA tournament again, they have to pick up their recruiting. Denison is a solid program and another victim of the NCAA selection process. I expect them to be ranked at the end of the season but it will all be fairly irrelevant because I think they will need a massive effort to topple the Lords in the conference tournament, especially with Kenyon knowing they probably won't qualify for the tournament themselves if they lose.

Season Preview #2: Denison

General Team Discussion- Denison has established themselves as a Central region power, but they haven't been able to crack the national scene lately. Since winning the NCAC tournament in 2006, they really haven't been competitive with Kenyon, particularly since the arrival of Mike Greenberg. Denison has a very young team though and with Kenyon graduating several starters, we could see some closing of the gap in the NCAC again in 2011. For now, Denison really isn't a threat to make the national tournament because they won't have the non-conference resume. I don't consider them a threat to Kenyon this year, they probably lose 6-3 on their best day and that's being generous. Denison brings in solid recruits and they are well coached in doubles, but I think their top guys would struggle to even make Kenyon's lineup. I expect them to hover between 20-30 in the country like the last few years but don't expect too much more.

Where They'll Win- Against most of their schedule the top of their lineup with Hobrath and Cempre will be dominant. However when they take on the Lords, they need the bottom of their lineup to step up which is their weak spot. Again, the top of their doubles lineup can be a winner most of the time. They have some experience in doubles so against Central region foes, I think they will win matches by being dominant in doubles. Basically, doubles and their top guys will carry them against the majority of teams but against Kenyon they need their 3 through 6 to step up.

Where They'll Lose - I said above that their top of the lineup is their strong suit. I question the bottom of their singles lineup since these players were not as established in the juniors. Most of their schedule is fairly simple so these players shouldn't have much trouble, but against tough teams I don't know if they will come through for the Big Red.

Schedule Analysis - Obviously the biggest match of the season will be the NCAC championship match against Kenyon on Denison's home courts. This will be their only way to make NCAAs. Other matches to watch are a mid-season contest against a tough Bates team. They are playing at home and this should be a very even match. Lastly, a probable showdown with Kalamazoo at the GLCA could show us how good Denison is. A win in that match could give them a shot at Carnegie Mellon or DePauw.