Thoughts on the Next Few Days

Cameron Spearman, Redlands

I will have a separate post Wednesday evening discussing the Stag-Hen Invitational.

First, I want to go over today's result that had Vassar defeating Whittier 6-3. The Brewers are now 3-0 in California with routine wins against Salisbury, Occidental and Whittier. Tomorrow they take on #7 Kenyon. If anyone knows the Lords well, it is Vassar's head coach John Cox. The question is if his team is skilled enough to pull out a few matches against Kenyon, who is arguably the hottest team in the country at the moment. However, Kenyon's 2 signature wins both came at home. I like Kenyon to win this match 7-2 or 8-1, but I also expect some tight matches. This is a perfect tuneup for the Lords heading into a huge Friday clash with Whitman. Another interesting thing to note is with this result, it is very possible that Mary Wash will be out of the rankings when they are released next week, especially if they lose to W&L this weekend. Who would have thought Mary Wash would be out of the top 30 2 weeks ago? I think it's quite clear that Whittier benefited from an exhausted UMW team and they aren't exactly top 30 material this year. They should enjoy their national ranking while it lasts though.

Apart from the Stag-Hen (SH), there is other tennis in California this week and weekend. Emory warms up for their SH by facing Redlands on Thursday. In Emory's past California trips, they haven't stopped by Redlands to play, so these 2 aren't too familiar with each other. I think this will be a great test for the doubles of both squads, and it will also give Redlands a chance to gauge the strength of the bottom of their lineup. I do expect the Bulldogs to come out with a couple wins in this, but they have to not be intimidated, especially in doubles. I'll talk about Emory later in the week when I discuss the SH, but I think this will be a perfect warm-up for them against a team that will challenge them, but not beat them. The more important match for Redlands is on the road against Santa Cruz on Saturday. I don't consider the Emory match winnable for the Bulldogs, but the Cruz match certainly is if Redlands is playing well. This would be a fantastic win for their program, but my heart tells me Cruz will be a little too much. After Saturday, the country will have a much better indication as to the strength of this year's Redlands team. A win against Cruz would put them in fantastic position for a Pool C bid, but I expect the Slugs to pull out a close one. Cruz is too disciplined to lose a match like this and if they play great doubles, this could turn into a blowout.

A team I haven't talked about much is UT-Tyler. The Pats started very slow this year with their first conference loss since 2007 and then a 5-4 loss against Rhodes. They take on Cal Lu in their first match without Ballou, and both of these teams desperately need a win. If you remember last year, UT-Tyler didn't have the greatest regular season, but came on very strong in NCAAs. They have to regroup and focus their efforts on winning the ASC. A win over CLU would certainly help to build their confidence. Remember 2 years ago at this time, this Tyler team was ranked 13 in the country.

There are 3 other Saturday matches and the most notable thing happening is Middlebury's first D3 test when they take on Brandeis. The Judges are coming off a decent California trip and I don't think they have much of a chance in this, but as long as they keep improving and peak at UAAs, they should be happy. As I've said, so many question marks surround Midd this year, so I'll be interested to see how they start against a solid opponent. They are still 1 in the country dating back to last year and I know they are talented, but getting off to a good start and getting their young guys confidence are 2 important aspects of their season. The other 2 matches should be very close. First we have Bates taking on MIT in a match of 2 New England teams trying to prove their worth. Both programs have top 20 aspirations this year, and if Bates wants to get a whiff of a Pool C bid in 2011, this is a must-win for them. MIT played a decent fall match against Williams, so they look to start strong in D3 play this spring and follow up their Sweet 16 performance in 2010. I expect this to be a battle as MIT won a close one in 2010. Lastly, the rivalry continues between Mary Washington and Washington & Lee. Despite being in separate conferences, geography makes these 2 hated rivals. Both teams are in desperate need of a win, particularly the Eagles, who have to feel great being back in Virginia after their California catastrophe. The loser of this probably won't be ranked in the next ITA poll. In 2008, both of these teams were top 18 in the nation when they met in the NCAA round of 32. Mary Wash won 5-4 and went on to beat Trinity (TX) the next day for a spot in the Final 8. How things have changed. Both teams are barely hanging on to their rankings and the glory they once had. It will be a huge win for the winner and a huge loss for the loser, as both of these teams have little to no confidence at the moment.

Mary Wash's Rough Start and The Big Picture

For those of you who haven't heard, Mary Washington began their California swing with an 8-1 loss to Pomona-Pitzer and a 7-2 loss to Whittier.

The Eagles scheduled 2 back-to-back matches and they clearly underestimated the Whittier Poets, projected to finish #5 in the SCIAC. I really thought Mary Washington had turned the corner when they got that win over Cal Lutheran. I think we now know that the Cal Lutheran team that showed up on Saturday at Indoors was not the same team that showed up on Friday at Indoors. The Eagles see CMS on Thursday and Redlands on Saturday to finish their trip. I'm interested to see how they fair on Saturday against the Bulldogs in a match that has traditionally been very close. Whittier doesn't play a stacked schedule, but they do have Vassar in a week and then the top SCIACs as well. They already lost to Pomona-Pitzer in an 8-1 rout and my guess is they caught a beaten down and demoralized Mary Wash team, similar to the Cal Lu team that Mary Wash played. With this win, it would be tough to keep them out of the top 25 though. The ranking committee has quite a task in front of them and I'll be interested to see what they come up with for Thursday. I thought the Eagles would come out prepared against PP after losing last year's match, but the Hens always give their best and are well coached. PP, unlike Whittier, plays a stacked schedule, and we will find out how good they really are as soon as next weekend. They open their own Stag-Hen invitational against Trinity (TX) and could have potential opponents such as Vassar, Whitman, Kenyon and Emory in the tournament. After last night, I think they are a legitimate Pool C contender. They have a veteran team who is hungry to get back in the tournament and this could be their year. I want to pose a question and look at a string of match results to lead me into my next point. If Pomona-Pitzer played Mary Washington tomorrow in Fredericksburg indoors, who would win? Even after having last night's information, I'd still be tempted to pick Mary Wash in that match. This Mary Wash team is no pushover. Even after their first 2 matches, they give a very good Trinity (TX) team all they could handle in a pretty tight 6-3.

Pomona-Pitzer beat Mary Washington 8-1. Mary Washington beat Cal Lutheran 5-4. Carnegie Mellon beat Cal Lutheran 5-4. Cruz beat Carnegie Mellon 5-4. Wash U beat Cruz 5-4. In a way this reminds me of 2008, when the top 16-18 teams in the country could all beat each other on any given day. This year with the information we have so far, I think there are two groups of teams: the top 3 and everyone else. I don't see anyone beating Herst, CMS and Emory besides each other. After that, it's possible that there is not a large gap between #4 and #20. No one has stepped up to the plate as a #4 that can challenge the top 3, but we haven't seen Midd, Williams or Hopkins yet. Wash U gave Emory a tough time but I don't see them truly challenging the top 3. Things could really get thrown into disarray if Mary Wash takes out Redlands Saturday and then the Bulldogs start beating people. Everything is just such a mess right now, when I first heard these results, I started asking a bunch of questions. In 3 weeks, we will have a lot more information and should be able to sort out the pretenders from the contenders. Every match is vitally important for the Pool C teams and you then have to root for the teams that you beat. There aren't a lot of results in yet, but we could technically see Pomona-Pitzer at #11 or #12 in the rankings on Thursday. I think they should be more like 14 or 15. I don't even want to try to take a crack at rankings right now because there aren't enough results. I think the thing to take from all of these early season matches is that we may be in for a great season where anyone can beat anyone else and every team always has to be looking over their shoulder because they have a target on their back. The Eagles have a chance for redemption Saturday. It's just strange to see them lose like they did, but maybe Pomona-Pitzer has really developed and is ready to contend for the top 10 in the country. Things are so wide open at the moment, there's no reason they can't do it. We will see what happens over the next few weeks and I'll take another look at "the big picture" then.