Weekend Recap, Matches I Missed and Monday Preview

It was a shame that matches in Santa Cruz were canceled today, but there was still a lot of action over the weekend including a few matches I completely missed that didn't make it on the calendar. I apologize for those omissions and I'll touch on those results in this post. On Friday, Skidmore continued their mediocre play in California in a 6-3 loss to Redlands. I don't think the Thoroughbreds are top 20 material this year, especially given the scores in the bottom of the lineup against Redlands. Skidmore will look to improve when they return home. A much needed win for the Bulldogs and they have some very important matches coming up against Trinity (CT) and Williams before they get into SCIAC play. They know they have to make a splash soon and I expect them to raise their level. The other match on Friday had Mary Washington losing at home against Bates 7-2. The Eagles have 2 different personalities this season and it seems like they don't show up half the time. They beat Cal Lu, got crushed by an unranked Whittier, beat Washington & Lee and now lose badly to Bates. Mary Wash is in what amounts to a 3 year slump because on paper they should be top 20 and they are nowhere close to it. They have very little in the way of quality wins recently and I definitely see another 1st round exit in NCAAs in the near future.

On Saturday, two matches that weren't on the calendar took place with Mary Wash rebounding to beat Swarthmore and Emory taking down DePauw 7-2. A decent result for the Tigers as they hung at a few spots. One thing that concerns me is Emory's #2 doubles team. They beat CMS and have followed it up with losses to Denison and DePauw. I know Emory wants to keep their Pottish/Egan duo at 3, but to do that they need a decent 2 team. Also on Saturday, Pomona-Pitzer defeated Skidmore 7-2 in a routine victory. The Hens continue to roll. One of my matches to watch highlighted the weekend as CMS took on national title favorite Amherst. The Jeffs had been rolling the entire week, but as I said previously, they have struggled in the regular season the past 2 years. CMS stepped up and won this match somewhat comfortably. Alex Lane was the real difference maker as he got 2 huge victories for CMS. If I'm Amherst, there is nothing to be concerned about. I use this as motivation that the team still needs to improve. The Stags rebounded well after the Emory loss as they had to get a lot of their confidence back. I know Midd is 1, but I think even they know they don't belong there. I have no problem with them staying there due to last season, but they will have to beat Amherst eventually to keep that ranking. All of this leaves Emory as the team to beat in D3 right now. I see them going into NCAAs as the top seed. They have tests against Hopkins and Chicago, but the only match I could actually see them losing is a UAA final against Wash U if they get swept in doubles. CMS needs to refocus because they have 3 huge matches coming up in Texas this weekend. If this shows us anything, it's that no team stands out among the top teams and I think it's a 3 horse race for the national title.

Today was fairly uneventful, but I was impressed by Hopkins absolute destruction of Bates. The Bobcats are a solid team and Hopkins lost 10 total games in the bottom 4 singles spots. A remarkable performance heading into a huge Monday clash with NC Wesleyan. I was also disappointed in this effort by Bates because Hopkins is an excellent team, but they aren't Emory or CMS. This team went from beating UMW 7-2 to losing to JHU 8-1 and I think the gap between those 2 teams is large, but not that large. Also today, Swarthmore upset Christopher Newport 5-4 in a drama-filled contest. Not a good loss for the Captains as they need to close the gap with NCW and this doesn't help. An excellent win for Swat, who I still feel should be ranked in the next poll.

We've got a very big week ahead, but let's focus on tomorrow for the moment. 3 matches on the calendar, only 1 of which I consider significant. To begin, Bates continues their road trip and takes on a Kalamazoo team that's an absolute disaster right now. I see a routine win for the Bobcats and it should be a nice confidence boost after a rough day today. Cruz and Trinity (CT) will try to squeeze their match in with bad weather in the area. I could be wrong, but I think Trinity is pretty weak this year, so they may have benefited the most from the match cancellations avoiding matches against both Bowdoin and Cal Lu. The Bantams still sit at 14 in the country from last year's results. Bowdoin and Cal Lu would be 2 matches I'd expect them to lose. We'll see how they do against Cruz, but I project an easy win for the Slugs. The biggest match of the day, and one of my 10 matches to watch is a rematch of last year's epic Sweet 16 match between Johns Hopkins and NC Wesleyan. For those who don't know, Hopkins was at home in NCAAs last year and swept doubles before NCW stormed back and won all 6 first sets in an eventual 5-3 win that came down to the wire. I'm sure that's still fresh on the minds of Hopkins coaches and players, so they should desperately want some revenge, especially playing on the road this time. NCW didn't have the start they wanted at Indoors and this is one of their very few matches against a highly ranked team this season. If they don't win this, I don't see them breaking the top 10 during the regular season. Both teams should be incredibly fired up in what I expect will be an amazing match. I'm going to refrain from making a prediction because I really don't know.

I'll be back Monday night with a recap of the Hopkins-NCW match and a Tuesday preview.

Wed/Thurs Recap, Fri-Sun Preview

Justin Wilson, Cal Lutheran

I want to go over the results from the past 2 days and preview a very big weekend. The first half of the week was full of big matches and although Wed/Thurs matches didn't have the significance of Monday and Tuesday, they certainly weren't short on drama. Today, there were 2 matches which I didn't expect to be all that competitive. I'll discuss CMS-Skidmore and CLU-Amherst a little later.

First on Wednesday, Redlands lost to Amherst 8-1 as expected. Another dominant performance by Amherst, cruising in doubles and not dropping a set in the 5 singles matches they won. They continue to play Chafetz at 4, which I guess we will see for the remainder of the season. Redlands just isn't competitive with the top teams. ITA Rankings came out today (I'll have a separate post) and Redlands is sitting at 8th in Pool C. That means they have to go out and beat someone, they can't just sit back and go through the motions. Granted, they've lost to Cruz, Amherst and Emory, but I haven't seen anything from them that implies they are better than last year. They've got to make a move sooner or later and it may not be against Pomona-Pitzer the way the Hens are playing. The other 2 matches Wednesday both came down to the wire and were tied 4-4. The early match pitted Bowdoin against a Skidmore team who I expect a lot from this year. One thing for Skidmore is they were missing one of their star freshmen, Jimmy Sherpa, and without him they will struggle against a team as good as Bowdoin. I'm not sure where he is, but Skidmore isn't deep enough to be a top 20 team without him. Hats off to Bowdoin, who proved me wrong about not being able to come from behind after doubles. Skidmore jumped out to an early lead, but Bowdoin really dominated the 4 spots they won in singles. Sullivan has lived up to his preseason All-American status and he has been the rock for Bowdoin this week in singles, starting his spring season 4-0 at the #1 position. Given the new ITA rankings, Bowdoin currently sits at #7 in Pool C, but they have an opportunity to play the #6 team, Trinity (CT), this weekend. Bowdoin has done what they needed to do so far and they are in a good spot.

Unbelievable heart and resiliency by Cal Lutheran. They could have folded after Indoors and an injury to their top player, but they didn't. Since Ballou has had surgery, they've beaten Tyler and Whitman and played 5-4 against Kenyon. Along with Paul Burgin, Justin Wilson is the biggest surprise for me this season for an individual. He's playing at a very high level right now and has been rock solid for this team. This is Cal Lu's 4th match that has been tied at 4-4 this year and it's the first one they won. I am impressed that they are doing what they're doing and I think they are going to keep it up. They have more shots against ranked teams and they can sneak their way back into Pool C. If they pull some upsets and get confident, watch out for them. I have a feeling they are going to make more noise this year. What a roller coaster season for the Kingsmen, but they have to be pleased with themselves. Whitman had a decent trip. They got the big win they needed and Coach Northam praised his team for their fight, but the bottom line is they are still ranked 20th in the country. I know it's bad to get caught up in rankings, but they don't lie. They saw the prize after that Trinity match, but couldn't get the job done against a team who I consider inferior to them, and then followed it up by not showing up at 2 of the doubles spots. I think they were physically beaten up by the end of the trip and there are a lot of positives to take from the past week, but the bottom line is they still have a lot of work to do to be able to compete with the top 15 teams on a consistent basis. I see it as though they are losing matches they shouldn't be losing, but they did get their big win and may go home satisfied.

I don't have much to say about today's matches. CMS put their full lineup out which I found a bit surprising, but after the Emory match and with Amherst coming up, I guess Coach Settles decided that his guys could use the practice. Pretty routine victory for CMS, they've certainly asserted their dominance over the lower ranked teams. Cal Lu put up a good fight but was beaten by a more talented team. A good experience for the Kingsmen, and they did pretty well I thought. Amherst is just rolling and we'll see how they do this weekend.

Friday through Sunday should be nothing short of fantastic. Tomorrow, we've got 2 evenly matched contests. On the East coast, Bates takes another spring trip and they will play Mary Wash tomorrow. Bates was ranked 23rd today and Mary Wash was 25th. The Eagles played a solid match at home against W&L last weekend, so we will see how they do in this. They are probably slightly overmatched at the top of the lineup, but have more depth, so this should be a good contrast of styles. I like Mary Wash in a close one, because I trust them at home, I just don't know if they can get it done on the road. Bates is officially done from Pool C if they lose. The other match tomorrow is an absolute must win for Redlands. The pressure is squarely on them against a lower ranked Skidmore team and throw in the fact that Redlands is playing for their tournament life. With Bowdoin's win over Skidmore, Redlands desperately needs this, and it would help to win in convincing fashion. Skidmore is playing their 3rd ranked team in as many days, so they could be a little tired. This would probably be the biggest win in the history of Skidmore tennis if they could pull it off, but I expect Redlands to be too tough on their home courts. The Bulldogs win and keep their NCAA hopes alive.

Saturday Skidmore plays again at Pomona-Pitzer, and judging by the past weeks results, I don't expect it to be too competitive. PP is at a very high level right now and Skidmore may be a bit down on themselves, especially if they lose to Redlands Friday. Again, it would be a huge win for Skidmore, I just don't know if they can do it. The second match pits Bowdoin against Cal Lutheran in a match that is crucial to both teams Pool C chances. Cal Lu has been so tough at home the past month and Bowdoin will have been in California for a week, so fitness could start to become a factor. This is Cal Lu's chance to get back into the Pool C hunt, and the way they've been playing, I certainly think they can win. The Kingsmen probably need to get ahead in doubles because of their depth issues, but if they do that, it's anyone's match. The main event this weekend is obviously Amherst at CMS. The Stags are looking to rebound from last weekend's poor performance against Emory and Amherst is trying to establish themselves as the dominant team in the nation. Midd still stands at 1, but this match should have implications as to who is #1 in the country late in the season. I believe having the #1 overall seed in NCAAs is huge, because when you take the big 3 this year, whoever isn't #1 will have to win brutally tough matches on back to back days, whereas #1 will have an easier team with whoever ends up being #4. This match is tough to predict. I like CMS to step up after a tough loss to Emory, but the question is if Amherst is just too talented. CMS obviously has to play better doubles than they did, and I still don't have a status report on the whereabouts of Robbie Erani. He could potentially make a big difference and allow CMS to better compete deep in the lineup. Lane or Johnson will need to pull off a huge win, but at the moment I just can't pick against Amherst as I expect the Jeffs to pull out a tough win.

Sunday brings double duty for both Cal Lutheran and Trinity (CT), as the Bantams play both Bowdoin and Cal Lu, and the Kingsmen also play Santa Cruz. The Bowdoin-Trinity match was one of my matches to watch because it is a huge rivalry and huge for Pool C. Again, Cal Lu will have a chance to get another win on their resume and they have to keep their heads held high even if they get crushed by Cruz. The Slugs match up well against the Kingsmen, so I don't foresee too much trouble for Cruz playing at home in that match. So we've got CLU-Cruz, CLU-TrinityCT and Bowdoin-TrinityCT all taking place in Santa Cruz, California on Sunday. In Baltimore, Hopkins takes on Bates in what will be JHU's biggest test of the year to date. Hopkins will have too much depth and too much talent, but their top guys will be tested.

Weekend Recap

3 matches that I'm going to discuss plus a few other results of note. Cal Lutheran vs. Pomona-Pitzer was cancelled due to weather and a new date has not been picked for the match. Not a ton of key matches this weekend, but a few results worth mentioning. Chicago beat Gustavus 6-3 after falling behind 2-1 in doubles. The Maroons were able to pull out 2 come from behind 3-set singles wins to avoid the upset. Chicago still does have a fighting spirit and life when it comes to qualifying for the NCAA tournament. This morning, the same Gustavus team lost 6-3 to DePauw, winning 2 singles matches at the bottom of the lineup as well as 1st doubles. If I'm Gustavus, I have to be fairly happy with the fact that I played 2 top 20 teams pretty tough given how far the Gusties fell last year. With Carleton get smoked by Whitewater, I have to call GAC the favorite in the MIAC right now. The Gusties actually play Whitewater in 2 weeks and this will be a big match for them. As I expected, Chicago and DePauw had nearly identical results this weekend. The Tigers meet the Maroons on March 22 in an absolutely massive match with the loser being at a big disadvantage when it comes to qualifying for NCAAs.

Skidmore found their 2009 form and beat Vassar 7-2 in a fairly routine victory. If Skidmore keeps up the good work, they could be quite dangerous in May. However, Vassar will now want revenge in the conference tournament so this just adds more fuel to the fire in what should be a great conference final. The biggest match of the weekend had Kenyon defeating Carnegie Mellon 6-3 in a tight match. It's time to give credit where credit is due and say that Kenyon is playing great tennis so far and is definitely the most pleasant surprise for the month of February. The Lords have beaten 2 top 20 teams and there's no reason they will stop here. With the team they have, they are really playing well and this win should put them at 7 or 8 in the next ITA rankings. They are getting contributions from everywhere as Burgin looks to be one of the best #2's in the country and the Polster/Williams team is playing like they are top 10 in the nation in doubles. The Lords next tests will be in California where they will have a match against Whitman and potential matches with CMS and Trinity (TX). I said this before the year started, if Thielke can put this team in the Final 8, he deserves Coach of the Year. The way they are playing right now, this is a definite possibility. Looking at the other side of the match, this is far from a bad loss from CMU because they are still in great position and should be single digits in the rankings, but I'm now questioning my statement about them being as good as last year which I made last weekend. They first need to concern themselves with making the tournament, but they should be more concerned about getting a top seed in the regional. The good news is they may get to see Kenyon again in the GLCA final if they both make it. One thing that disappoints me is that I dubbed Bobby Mactaggart one of my Players to Watch, and he is almost single-handedly doing in his team right now. He's won 10 games in 4 singles matches and is 0-4 in doubles in D3 competition. I said that CMU won't get anywhere without him and I stick to that. Along with Ray Worley, he's not doing what he needs to be doing. Seems like Wichlin, Polster, Frey and Egan all got my message though, because they've had good starts to the spring.

Two other results of note from Case Western. They knocked off both Whitewater and Kalamazoo and should find themselves in the top 30 if not the top 25 in the next ITA rankings. Coach Wojtkowski is running a fantastic program in Cleveland and the Spartans are on the rise. This makes things very interesting in the UAA as there are now 6 probable ranked teams. Life is hard for CMU and Chicago as one of them will have to take on a fiery Case team and the other will have to take on the host Brandeis in the conference tournament 1st round. I could easily see an upset in 1 of those 2 matches and an NCAA berth could be on the line as well. Case isn't in action again until GLCAs, which I don't believe they've played before. They could enter as the 4th or 5th seed and see Denison in the quarters which would be interesting.

Brief Weekend Preview Feb 25-27

Several matches are happening this weekend, but there are 4 which I'd like to mention because I think they are fairly significant. A team I haven't talked much about is Gustavus, and they will be in competitive D3 action for the first time this season when they take on Chicago. The Maroons are much more talented and should be able to win handily, but the Gusties have an opportunity to make a statement that they are back with a good showing. Chicago took care of a weak Kzoo team last weekend and now they face a similar foe in Gustavus. I expect the Gusties to be slightly stronger than they were last year now that Coach Valenti has a year under his belt, but I don't expect them to be any match for Chicago this weekend. Also note that Gustavus takes on DePauw Sunday, so looking at the results of those matches may allow us to compare the strength of Chicago and DePauw. Next we have a conference rivalry between Vassar and Skidmore. Although this match isn't all that important on the national scene, it's hugely important for these 2 teams as this rivalry runs very deep. The winner of this will get a leg up in the Liberty League and will most likely find themselves ranked in the next ITA poll. It's important for Skidmore to bounce back after a rough season last year, but equally as important for new Vassar coach John Cox to begin to establish a dynasty in the conference so he can build his program into a national power.

Third we have Cal Lutheran versus Pomona-Pitzer in the Kingsmen's first match without Nick Ballou. I'm interested to see how the Kingsmen respond in this. This is a huge match for PP to get a win on their Pool C resume and one they desperately need so they can potentially avoid the #4 seed in the conference tournament. They could use the confidence and this match would take them into the top 20 in the country. I'm not completely sure what to expect of Cal Lu from an effort standpoint, so we'll see how they fair. These 2 both played Brandeis in the past few days with Cal Lu w/Ballou winning 6-3 and PP winning 8-1 after a doubles sweep. I think this could be a big opportunity for the Hens and I expect them to come out with a win against a depleted and reeling CLU squad. The loser of this is in huge trouble when it comes to making NCAAs.

The main event this weekend is the next chapter in the rivalry between Carnegie Mellon and Kenyon. These 2 have played some great matches over the past 3 years and despite not being in the same conference or region, they have become great rivals with a mutual respect for each other. Kenyon defended their home court early in the season against Chicago, but this CMU team is much more focused and disciplined, meaning the Lords will need to raise their game to win. CMU certainly has the talent edge and they have the opportunity to really make a statement that they are a top 10 team who should be taken seriously this year. If they can be mentally tough and win in a hostile environment, they will have just about clinched an NCAA berth. This could potentially be a huge match for NCAA seeding and hosting, so even though its not a must win for either team, it's a result that we will come back to later in the season for sure. Kenyon seems to be very confident so far this season and they've had some quality wins, but this is by far their toughest D3 test of the spring. I think they need to play excellent doubles to win this match, but I like a more experienced CMU team to win a close one. If the Lords can weather the storm early and remain even deep into the match, they can win. This match is CMU's for the taking if they are focused and want it, and I think they leave Ohio with a huge win on Saturday.

2011 Team Preview #15: Skidmore

Luke Granger

Coach: Nathan Simms, 5th Season
Location: Saratoga Springs, New York
Conference: Liberty League
2008 Ranking: NR
2009 Ranking: 21
2010 Ranking: NR
2011 Projected: NR

Before I start the preview, I will warn everyone that of all the teams I'm previewing, I probably know the least about these guys. I predicted them to be a top 30 team last year and they fell apart and finished 3rd in their conference, but after some good recruiting by Coach Simms, they seem to be flirting with the top 30 and a conference title once again. 2009 was a historic year for Skidmore tennis, as they finished 21st in the country, made the NCAA Sweet 16, and backed all of that up with a win against traditional powerhouse Washington & Lee. Last year, I'm not exactly sure what happened, but they seem to have put it behind them. From my point of view, they are fairly even with Vassar and the conference title may come down to whoever plays better in early May. Vassar may not agree with this assessment just like last year, and they may very well be correct, just like last year. It seems to me though that Skidmore has really restructured, and if they can somehow break the top 25 this year, I'd look at Nathan Simms as a potential Regional Coach of the Year candidate. This program was really a non-factor in the Northeast a couple years ago, but Coach Simms looks like he's starting to turn them around. The next step is to string together a couple of years that were just like 2009. That should start in 2011. Looking at the make-up of this year's team, I believe the truth strength could be in freshmen phenoms Oliver Loutsenko and Jimmy Sherpa. In Skidmore's lone fall dual match, these two played 5 and 4, respectively. This must mean that the Thoroughbreds have a respectable top 3. In my mind, Vassar probably can't keep up with them at the bottom of the lineup. That being said, Vassar seems stronger at the top of the lineup, so the end result may come down to doubles which is a huge question mark at this time. What Skidmore has done is load their schedule with great teams. They have a brutal California trip and the match I'd most pay attention to is against Pomona-Pitzer. If they can win that, it's a huge step for this team. They have scheduled the 3 NESCAC powerhouses in advance of their conference tournament, but let's hope that the beatdown they are going to take from these 3 doesn't hurt their confidence. This team will compete for a conference title, will be in the NCAA tournament and has a great chance at being ranked by year-end as well.

Regional Preview: Middlebury

Not a whole lot to discuss here. Middlebury is the host and the overwhelming favorite to win the national title. MIT probably has an outside chance at winning a doubles match against them but they should win 5-0 in both of their matches. An interesting thing to note that I discussed in my bracketology is that I wasn't sure if Skidmore would make the tournament over UW-LaCrosse. This did end up happening and Skidmore finds themselves as the 4 seed in this region. Stevens may give MIT a little trouble but the Engineers should come away with a victory. Overall MIT has to be pleased with their season but I think it will end quite promptly once they step on to the court with the best team in the country. Midd wins this easily and advances to the Elite 8.

Season Preview #10: Skidmore

General Team Discussion - Skidmore emerged on the national scene only last year. They were a borderline ranked team in 2008, and in 2009 they were consistently in the 20-25 range. I definitely think this is a program on the rise since they have stepped up their recruiting significantly in the past few years. A Sweet 16 finish last year established Skidmore on the national scene and I'm thinking they may be here for a while. I'm not all that familiar with this team since they are fairly new to the national scene, but I definitely see potential here. I think they have to step up their competition a bit and maybe play some more East coast mid-atlantic teams, just so their players get a taste of top competition on a regular basis. They have a potential NCAA Singles Qualifier in Girardin at the top who had a good junior career. They will almost certainly win their conference giving them an NCAA berth but I think they are a few years away from being a threat to a top seed in their region. I would expect a similar year to last year for Skidmore.

Where They'll Win - #1 singles is probably their strongest spot and they seem to also be strong in the 4-5 singles range. I doubt they have anyone who can win at 2 and 3 singles against top 20 teams. Their #1 doubles team was also fairly strong last year and I would expect a repeat performance. Their schedule is fairly lopsided so I would expect them to dominate the majority of their matches in the spots I listed but they will probably struggle against the really tough teams on their schedule.

Where They'll Lose - I don't think they have much in the way of a strong middle of the lineup. 2 and 3 singles are spots I would expect them to lose if they played teams comparable to them. Also, depth in doubles is a question mark for me. Once they get into NCAA competition, I would expect their doubles to falter most likely.

Schedule Analysis - Only four big matches on their schedule. During their California trip, they play Pomona-Pitzer, Redlands and CMS. I think they will struggle to even win matches against the second two, but the match against P-P is probably the best gauge of how good Skidmore is. I would consider these two fairly evenly matched teams. They play Williams at home and this match will tell us if they have developed throughout the season. CMS and Williams are similar in strength so we will see if Skidmore is up to the challenge on their home courts. They should win the Liberty League title easily.

Skidmore vs. Wash & Lee

In a match that wasn't listed on the calendar, #25 Skidmore d. #22 Washington & Lee 5-4. All of the doubles were close and there were 4 3-setters in singles.

Box Score

Saturday Recap

Three important regional matches took place Saturday and we had 3 intriguing results. The day started with a marathon match between W&L and Salisbury. W&L was able to hold on for a 5-4 victory that came down to the last match. Salisbury looked like they were going to pull the upset for a while. We then had a dominating performance by Cal Lutheran against a tough Pomona-Pitzer team. Cal Lutheran is a sleeper this year and could knock off a good team on the right day. The day finished with another sleeper, Skidmore, dominating their Liberty League rival Vassar. This was a 9-0 victory, but the doubles were close.

We have some more interesting regional matchups happening tomorrow as well.