The past 2 days were certainly not lacking in drama. First I want to talk about today's match that saw Johns Hopkins travel to Emory in a 6-3 victory for the Eagles that was much closer than expected. For those who haven't seen it, check the box score to the right in the latest news section. Emory was lucky to win. This match says several things, but I don't want to read too much into it. First of all, I would bet Emory went in overconfident, knowing that they stand as the best team in the country and Hopkins was just beaten solidly by NC Wesleyan 2 days ago. The Eagles had to think they would run through this match, but they were very wrong. I think this is great for Emory because it's a wake up call. It shows them that they are susceptible to doubles sweep on any day and they are far from invincible. I'm sure a few points here and there could have given Hopkins a win. The Eagles pulled this out and they now know they have to be on their heels against pretty much anyone in the top 15. I thought the top 3 were on a different level than everyone else, but maybe that's not the case. The bottom line is this is the toughest match Emory's played all season, even tougher than CMS and Wash U. Emory was clutch and managed to survive, and I think this match helps them a lot going forward. I wasn't sure what to make of Hopkins performance when comparing this to the NCW match, but I got an email with a good idea. Hopkins doesn't perform when there are expectations. Looking at the past several years, every time you expect something from JHU, they fold. And when there are no expectations, such as this match, they do very well. That doesn't seem to be an easily fixable problem; Hopkins doesn't play well as the favorite. This match result shows me they have the talent to play with anyone in the country, but they are inconsistent. The Bishops rolled them in singles on Monday, and no disrespect to NCW, but I think Emory is a stronger team than NCW. Something clicked for Hopkins today, and this match has to give them confidence moving forward.
Tuesday's results are posted below in the previous post. Bowdoin took care of Cal Lu as expected. They had too much depth and it showed. The same thing happens to Cal Lu every match, and the truth is they would really be a dangerous team with Ballou. Right now they've got 3 guys who can win in Giuffrida, Wilson and Sousa and that's not enough to beat solid top 15 opponents. The Kingsmen are good, they just don't have the complete team to compete at the highest level this year. They need to do some serious recruiting for next year because their current personnel aren't getting the job done. Bowdoin has to be very happy with their trip. I think they performed quite well and got their young guys some valuable experience. I expect them to be sitting at 14 in the country in the next rankings which should put them as the 6th Pool C team for the time being. This is a typical Bowdoin year; a very solid team who's dangerous against anyone. I think they can go home quite satisfied with their performance and I expect them to keep up the high level in NESCAC play.
In DePauw-Chicago, we saw our first comeback from an 0-3 hole in doubles this season as the Maroons were swept but went on to win 5 first sets and hold on in all of those matches. A much-needed win for Chicago, and when you look at the Maroons resume, it's actually fairly solid this year. This win kept their NCAA hopes alive, but they still need to make something happen. They either need to take out Wash U in their regular season match or take at least 3rd in the UAA tournament, which would mean a win over Carnegie. When the next rankings out, barring any meltdowns from anyone or any unexpected wins from Redlands, I see Chicago sitting at 7th in Pool C right behind Bowdoin. The Polar Bears are going to pad their resume with wins most likely when they take on MIT, Bates and Trinity (CT). Chicago has to match that with a big win of their own because they don't have the amount of ranked wins that Bowdoin will have. The Maroons did a good job in this, but they still have work to do. DePauw is in a big hole right now and I think they may need to go and win the GLCA tournament, and at the very least beat Carnegie in a probable semifinal. They do have their conference tournament to fall back on, but they will have to beat a very good Rhodes team and then Trinity (TX) on back to back days. This was a match DPU needed to win and their NCAA hopes look grim at the moment. Chicago's talent showed in this match in singles and I think it's good for the Maroons to finally get a win against a big time program.
I predicted a win for Pomona-Pitzer against Williams and I was correct, but not in the fashion I expected. Williams has to be pleased with their doubles play against a team that took 2 of 3 from Emory and Kenyon this season. They just didn't get the job done in singles and I think PP's experience paid off. This is not a bad loss at all for the Ephs as PP is ranked ahead of them, but Williams needs to put this behind them because they have Redlands, CLU and Cruz all in the next week. If they can go 2 for 3 in this stretch, I think they are in good shape. They start a freshman and 5 sophomores in singles, so this is still a really young team that will mature throughout the season. I like this Williams team a lot, and if they continue with this level in doubles, they will be really tough to beat all season long. PP continues their dream season with another huge win. The Hens enter SCIAC play riding high, but now its time for them to win rivalry matches against Redlands and CLU. PP has done an amazing job so far, similar to CLU last year, but now is the time when CLU started to go downhill. PP needs to keep it up and carry this momentum all the way through the end of the season.
Showing posts with label Williams. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Williams. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
Monday, March 21, 2011
NCW Tops Hopkins and Tuesday Preview
On Monday, Bates took down Kalamazoo in a close 5-4 that came down to the last match at #2 singles. Good win for Bates, but this shows me for sure they are ranked properly around 23. Another solid Bates team who may finish 5th in the NESCAC; a pretty typical year for them. I know Kzoo is a work in progress, but they are really down this year. It was good for them to win 4 matches against a top 25 team, but I just find it disheartening how much this team has dropped off and no one seems to care. They will extend their conference winning streak, but they aren't a serious threat to do anything in NCAAs. Thinking about it, they probably head into the GLCA tournament in a couple weeks as the #6 seed, which is shocking given that they were top 15 just a year ago.
Cruz beat Trinity (CT) 8-1 on a cold day in NorCal with Trinity only winning at 1 singles in 3 sets. Good win for the Slugs as they head to Texas. The biggest match of the day saw NC Wesleyan defeating Hopkins 5-4 in a match that was really never close. Awesome job by NCW, they clearly learned from Indoors and pulled off this win playing without their #1 Rinat Khussainov. The scores from the bottom of the lineup were surprising, as NCW just dominated. They got the point they needed in doubles and I think they are just in the head of Hopkins at this point. We'll see how things play out, but I wouldn't be surprised if these 2 are in the same position as last year, competing for an NCAA Final 8 bid against each other. If you're Hopkins, it's one thing to beat up on teams you are clearly better than, but to go on the road and beat a team who's just as good as you takes a lot of will, and NCW just out-competed the Bluejays today. The mental toughness is still lacking in big matches, and Hopkins has upcoming chances to turn it around. NCW doesn't have a serious test the rest of the season so I think they go into NCAAs as a team that people will overlook, which I'm sure they love. This was a big win for the Bishops and they are in a great spot right now because Hopkins may beat some people later in the season.
Super Tuesday tomorrow with 3 matches that should all be very competitive and 6 Pool C teams competing. The headline match of the day probably has the least on the line. Williams begins their D3 season against one of the hottest teams in the country, Pomona-Pitzer. Williams is looking to start well after last year's disappointing finish. This team is a year older now and I expect big things from them this year. That being said, I think this will be a difficult one for the Ephs. They aren't match tested and are playing on the road against a confident and battle-tested team. If Williams loses tomorrow, even something like 7-2, I don't think they should be alarmed. If they win, it's a great effort by them, but you can only expect so much of yourself this early in your season. I think Williams is talented enough to not have to worry about missing the NCAA tournament, but this match could potentially have big implications towards Williams getting a top seed in their NCAA regional and being able to avoid Middlebury or Amherst in the Sweet 16. Pomona-Pitzer is ranked 9th, but their NCAA fate is somewhat determined, so I think a win helps Williams more than it helps PP. Both teams should want to win, but Williams probably has slightly more to play for. I expect a very good match and I think a lot depends on Williams being able to hang in doubles, because that's typically where you are rusty if you haven't played much. I like PP in a close 5-4, but no one knows what to expect from Williams so the result is hard to gauge.
The other 2 matches both have huge implications for NCAAs. First the rescheduled match between Bowdoin and Cal Lutheran takes place in Thousand Oaks. Another note is that the Trinity CT-Cal Lu match has been rescheduled for Thursday. Cal Lu desperately needs this win if they want to stay in the NCAA hunt. Wins against Tyler and Whitman are nice, but not enough to put a team in the top 15 and have them qualify in the top 6 teams for Pool C. Cal Lu's Mary Wash loss now looks horrible and they somehow need to offset that with a significant win. This match would be that significant win. I think the Kingsmen match up well with Bowdoin and have a good chance in this, but they have to take a lead in doubles. They have to match Bowdoin's intensity, because I don't think they make NCAAs if they lose tomorrow. I know they have several remaining matches on their schedule, but I don't know if matches against Midd and Williams are realistic wins, and they may have to beat out Pomona-Pitzer or Redlands. The Trinity CT match on Thursday is big, but with the Bantams probably not being a serious top 20 team, this is the one Cal Lu needs. Giuffrida and Wilson have been great this season, but either Worley or Sousa needs to step up tomorrow and get a win in singles, because from all indications, Bowdoin is up 2-0 before the match starts with wins at 5 and 6 singles. Cal Lu needs a little magic, but they have been great at home the past few weeks. Cal Lu is 1-3 in 5-4 matches this season and I think they extend that to 1-4 tomorrow. CLU has a couple great players, but I don't know if they've got enough to beat a well-rounded team like Bowdoin. I wouldn't be that surprised if CLU wins, but I can't pick against the Polar Bears in this. I also didn't mention this is not a match Bowdoin wants to lose, because then they have to root for Cal Lu to beat a team like Redlands. Bowdoin wants to control their own destiny when it comes to making NCAAs, and a win tomorrow would really help.
The match I'm most looking forward to is Chicago and DePauw. These 2 have had some heated encounters over the years and I expect another one tomorrow. DePauw is 3-1 against Chicago over the past 5 seasons, but the Maroons won the most recent one last year in an easy 7-2 win on the road. This is a clash of styles, with the wildly talented underachieving Maroons against a very solid and disciplined DePauw. I'm not going to say lose and you don't make NCAAs, but the loser has a serious uphill battle the rest of the season. They both don't have a ton of remaining opportunities on their schedule, but whoever gets this win on their resume gets a huge boost toward making NCAAs. I really don't know who to pick in this because Chicago has been out of D3 competition for a couple weeks and we haven't seen much of DePauw yet. This is just about as close as you get to a must-win, because the loser would probably need a win over a team like Carnegie Mellon to have a shot at Pool C, and I don't know if either team has that in them. Surprisingly, these 2 haven't played very close matches over the past few years, but I expect a close one tomorrow. My gut tells me Chicago gets the win tomorrow, but again I expect it to come down to the wire. It should be a wonderful match, and hopefully the sportsmanship remains as great as the play because I know that's been an issue in the past when these 2 meet.
Cruz beat Trinity (CT) 8-1 on a cold day in NorCal with Trinity only winning at 1 singles in 3 sets. Good win for the Slugs as they head to Texas. The biggest match of the day saw NC Wesleyan defeating Hopkins 5-4 in a match that was really never close. Awesome job by NCW, they clearly learned from Indoors and pulled off this win playing without their #1 Rinat Khussainov. The scores from the bottom of the lineup were surprising, as NCW just dominated. They got the point they needed in doubles and I think they are just in the head of Hopkins at this point. We'll see how things play out, but I wouldn't be surprised if these 2 are in the same position as last year, competing for an NCAA Final 8 bid against each other. If you're Hopkins, it's one thing to beat up on teams you are clearly better than, but to go on the road and beat a team who's just as good as you takes a lot of will, and NCW just out-competed the Bluejays today. The mental toughness is still lacking in big matches, and Hopkins has upcoming chances to turn it around. NCW doesn't have a serious test the rest of the season so I think they go into NCAAs as a team that people will overlook, which I'm sure they love. This was a big win for the Bishops and they are in a great spot right now because Hopkins may beat some people later in the season.
Super Tuesday tomorrow with 3 matches that should all be very competitive and 6 Pool C teams competing. The headline match of the day probably has the least on the line. Williams begins their D3 season against one of the hottest teams in the country, Pomona-Pitzer. Williams is looking to start well after last year's disappointing finish. This team is a year older now and I expect big things from them this year. That being said, I think this will be a difficult one for the Ephs. They aren't match tested and are playing on the road against a confident and battle-tested team. If Williams loses tomorrow, even something like 7-2, I don't think they should be alarmed. If they win, it's a great effort by them, but you can only expect so much of yourself this early in your season. I think Williams is talented enough to not have to worry about missing the NCAA tournament, but this match could potentially have big implications towards Williams getting a top seed in their NCAA regional and being able to avoid Middlebury or Amherst in the Sweet 16. Pomona-Pitzer is ranked 9th, but their NCAA fate is somewhat determined, so I think a win helps Williams more than it helps PP. Both teams should want to win, but Williams probably has slightly more to play for. I expect a very good match and I think a lot depends on Williams being able to hang in doubles, because that's typically where you are rusty if you haven't played much. I like PP in a close 5-4, but no one knows what to expect from Williams so the result is hard to gauge.
The other 2 matches both have huge implications for NCAAs. First the rescheduled match between Bowdoin and Cal Lutheran takes place in Thousand Oaks. Another note is that the Trinity CT-Cal Lu match has been rescheduled for Thursday. Cal Lu desperately needs this win if they want to stay in the NCAA hunt. Wins against Tyler and Whitman are nice, but not enough to put a team in the top 15 and have them qualify in the top 6 teams for Pool C. Cal Lu's Mary Wash loss now looks horrible and they somehow need to offset that with a significant win. This match would be that significant win. I think the Kingsmen match up well with Bowdoin and have a good chance in this, but they have to take a lead in doubles. They have to match Bowdoin's intensity, because I don't think they make NCAAs if they lose tomorrow. I know they have several remaining matches on their schedule, but I don't know if matches against Midd and Williams are realistic wins, and they may have to beat out Pomona-Pitzer or Redlands. The Trinity CT match on Thursday is big, but with the Bantams probably not being a serious top 20 team, this is the one Cal Lu needs. Giuffrida and Wilson have been great this season, but either Worley or Sousa needs to step up tomorrow and get a win in singles, because from all indications, Bowdoin is up 2-0 before the match starts with wins at 5 and 6 singles. Cal Lu needs a little magic, but they have been great at home the past few weeks. Cal Lu is 1-3 in 5-4 matches this season and I think they extend that to 1-4 tomorrow. CLU has a couple great players, but I don't know if they've got enough to beat a well-rounded team like Bowdoin. I wouldn't be that surprised if CLU wins, but I can't pick against the Polar Bears in this. I also didn't mention this is not a match Bowdoin wants to lose, because then they have to root for Cal Lu to beat a team like Redlands. Bowdoin wants to control their own destiny when it comes to making NCAAs, and a win tomorrow would really help.
The match I'm most looking forward to is Chicago and DePauw. These 2 have had some heated encounters over the years and I expect another one tomorrow. DePauw is 3-1 against Chicago over the past 5 seasons, but the Maroons won the most recent one last year in an easy 7-2 win on the road. This is a clash of styles, with the wildly talented underachieving Maroons against a very solid and disciplined DePauw. I'm not going to say lose and you don't make NCAAs, but the loser has a serious uphill battle the rest of the season. They both don't have a ton of remaining opportunities on their schedule, but whoever gets this win on their resume gets a huge boost toward making NCAAs. I really don't know who to pick in this because Chicago has been out of D3 competition for a couple weeks and we haven't seen much of DePauw yet. This is just about as close as you get to a must-win, because the loser would probably need a win over a team like Carnegie Mellon to have a shot at Pool C, and I don't know if either team has that in them. Surprisingly, these 2 haven't played very close matches over the past few years, but I expect a close one tomorrow. My gut tells me Chicago gets the win tomorrow, but again I expect it to come down to the wire. It should be a wonderful match, and hopefully the sportsmanship remains as great as the play because I know that's been an issue in the past when these 2 meet.
Monday, January 31, 2011
2011 Team Preview #20: Williams
Will PetrieCoach: Dan Greenberg, 2nd Season
Location: Williamstown, Massachusetts
Conference: NESCAC
2008 Ranking: 6
2009 Ranking: 8
2010 Ranking: 11
2011 Projected: 9
2010 was the first year since 1996 that Williams failed to make at least the quarterfinals of the NCAA tournament and finish in the top 10 in the country. Losing to Amherst is unfamiliar territory for the Ephs, but I think it taught them a lesson and I expect them to be back in the top 10 this year. I think Williams is the only team in the top 20 who will start no seniors, so they certainly have a bright future. Last year, I think some questionable scheduling did in Williams. They started with a road match against NC Wesleyan. Going to that match, I'm pretty sure Williams was very sure that they were going to win comfortably. They were wrong and I think it took them a few weeks to recover after that loss and it also really did them in when it came to rankings. The problem is that when your season is only 6 weeks long, you've got to be sharp every match, and one loss can really hurt you. On the positive side, this really was one of the best teams in the country last year. They beat Amherst 2 weeks before the Jeffs made their run to the final, and they even played very close with Amherst in the NCAA regional final. That shows me that this team has top 8 potential if they are playing well. One thing that worries me is that freshman Matt Micheli is currently not on their roster, and he was slated to play #2 for them this spring and would have been one of the best freshmen in the country. I'm not exactly sure where he is but they will miss him a lot if he's not in the lineup this spring. Williams does have one of the best players in the country in Felix Sun who really should support them and get a lot of wins even in the tough NESCAC. They have a great supporting cast as well and really are as deep as anyone in the country. Traditionally, Williams doubles is not very good. They are known for getting swept and getting into fairly big holes, and it would make life a lot easier if they could avoid that this year. I expect the Ephs to grab one of the Pool C spots and hopefully they can put together a strong enough regular season to get a top seed in their region. They've booked a California trip this year and scheduled 4 ranked teams out there, and I certainly would think Redlands, Cruz and CLU are all huge matches for them to try to pad their out-of-conference resume. I don't think it even needs to be said that matches against their NESCAC rivals are very important to them. I definitely expect Williams to get back on track this year and be in the hunt late in May after last year's disappointment.
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Regional Preview: Amherst
This is the first region that really caught my eye when I first looked at the bracket and it may also be the toughest to predict. This is the 3rd match of the season between these bitter rivals. St. Lawrence had a nice season, but I don't think the bottom 3 seeds here should really be taken into consideration. Amherst won 7-2 when they played a month ago at Williams and Williams won on Saturday 5-3 when they played at Amherst. I was very surprised that these two ended up having to play each other. I thought the recent win would be enough to push Williams ahead of Hopkins for the final #1 seed but this is clearly not the case. On paper, 2 doubles should go to Herst and 3 doubles should go to Williams, but these results were switched on Saturday. Whichever way it may turn out, I would expect those spots to be split. I'll come back to 1st doubles. 1st singles should go to Herst. 2nd doubles is a senior for Williams against a freshman for Herst and I think this is a match Williams will need if they want this win. The 3 through 5 singles spots are where Williams won Saturday. Obviously if they can take 3 through 5 again, they will win, but I doubt Herst will let that happen. Williams also had a big lead at 6 when play was suspended. If Herst can split the bottom 4 spots with Williams, I think they'll win. But if Williams is able to dominate the bottom again, this could turn into an easy win. The #1 doubles teams for both squads are fairly weak for their team's ranking and this spot could be a huge momentum builder going into singles. I just have a feeling Amherst will put out a close one on Sunday. I'm taking Herst 5-3.
Friday, April 30, 2010
Weekend Preview: May 1-2
A quick note before the weekend preview is a match I actually didn't make a note about and I didn't have on the calendar. Must have missed it when I was putting in all the matches pre-season. Williams traveled to Hartford to take on Trinity (CT). This was the last chance for the Bantams in the regular season to prove that they belong in the tournament. This was one of the closest matches of the year. The box score is here. I don't know if I've ever seen a match where the winner of the first set ended up losing the match in 5 of 6 singles matches. This match really came down to the wire and this was quite close to being a 6-3 victory for Trinity (CT). In the same breath Williams probably could have won 8-1 just as easily. The bottom line is that Bowdoin will meet Trinity (CT) in the first round of the NESCAC tournament next weekend. To make the tournament, I see Trinity needing not just 1, but 2 wins, and that would include beating Middlebury. Bowdoin has out of conference wins against Redlands and Salisbury and Trinity (CT) can only boast a win over Pomona-Pitzer. With this result on Wednesday, I think Bowdoin has all but locked up the 6th spot in Pool C for the tournament and Trinity will be left out for the 2nd year in a row.
Washington & Lee @ Carnegie Mellon
Despite the fact that this is #8 versus #25 in the country, I think it could be close. CMU has been so up and down in doubles so anything can happen. Carnegie can lock up a #1 seed and hosting for NCAAs and at the same time I don't really think W&L could benefit even if they end up winning. Doubles is so unpredictable but I'll give CMU a 2-1 lead heading into singles. The Generals will have a hard time keeping up in the bottom of the lineup and I don't see how they can possibly get anymore than 3 singles wins. I think 1 or 2 singles wins is actually more realistic. The only real chance for the Generals here is to sweep the doubles and that hasn't happened to CMU all season. I'll take CMU in a somewhat close 7-2 tomorrow to give them confidence heading into NCAAs. The Generals did what they needed to do and should be pleased with their season after taking back the conference title.
DePauw @ Wash U
The Tigers should be playing with a lot of desperation in this match. They lost their conference, but a huge upset would probably catapult them into the tournament through Pool C. That being said, I just don't know if there are 5 wins for DePauw in this match. The Tigers would somehow have to get up after doubles and although unlikely, this is possible. DePauw nearly swept Emory in doubles at the Indoors so the potential is there but they would need to play 3 perfect doubles matches. Even if this happens, I still think it would take a big effort to get 2 singles wins. They are the underdog at every spot in the lineup. I think they have an outside chance to win at 2, 3 and 6 and after those the Bears should dominate. I'm taking Wash U 7-2. I think the Bears may be playing with a chip on their shoulder after moving from 2 to 7 in the national rankings. I suspect DePauw will get a singles win and a doubles win. A tough season for the Tigers and they will miss the tournament for this first time in several years.
Middlebury @ Williams
Williams is one of the few teams in the country who I believe can play with Midd in the bottom of the lineup. Where Williams will fall short is Midd's strength - the top 4 spots. I think the Panthers will come out and dominate there top 4 spots and the only place where I'd say Williams has a chance is probably 2. Williams hasn't been good in doubles this year and this is where you need to get Middlebury if you want to stay in the match heading into singles. Results point to this being a blowout and I'm not going to argue otherwise. Midd just has too much firepower at the top of the lineup and I'll take them in a 7-2 victory. Williams played close with Trinity just a few days ago so they have a lot of work to do if they want to qualify for the final 8 this year.
Middlebury @ Amherst
#1 vs #2 in the NESCAC and finally Amherst has moved into the top 5 in the country after being out of the top 10 for a bit. The Jeffs are playing to their potential and they seem to have found the form that got them to the national championship match last year. The one thing I'm still not sold on is Amherst's doubles. They miss Jung in the #3 spot a lot I think. At the same time, they could have arguably the best #2 doubles team in the country in Kahan/Koenig. Amherst has to play a pretty perfect match to win against Middlebury and their 5 and 6 guys really need to step up. 3 and 4 singles are pretty much a lost cause for Herst. I think they will get either 1 or 2 and 2 doubles. That means they need to find 3 points within the other 2 doubles spots and 5 and 6 singles. I just don't think they can pull it off. Herst will be pumped up on their homecourts with a nice crowd, but I think Midd will be too much. 6-3 Middlebury.
Washington & Lee @ Carnegie Mellon
Despite the fact that this is #8 versus #25 in the country, I think it could be close. CMU has been so up and down in doubles so anything can happen. Carnegie can lock up a #1 seed and hosting for NCAAs and at the same time I don't really think W&L could benefit even if they end up winning. Doubles is so unpredictable but I'll give CMU a 2-1 lead heading into singles. The Generals will have a hard time keeping up in the bottom of the lineup and I don't see how they can possibly get anymore than 3 singles wins. I think 1 or 2 singles wins is actually more realistic. The only real chance for the Generals here is to sweep the doubles and that hasn't happened to CMU all season. I'll take CMU in a somewhat close 7-2 tomorrow to give them confidence heading into NCAAs. The Generals did what they needed to do and should be pleased with their season after taking back the conference title.
DePauw @ Wash U
The Tigers should be playing with a lot of desperation in this match. They lost their conference, but a huge upset would probably catapult them into the tournament through Pool C. That being said, I just don't know if there are 5 wins for DePauw in this match. The Tigers would somehow have to get up after doubles and although unlikely, this is possible. DePauw nearly swept Emory in doubles at the Indoors so the potential is there but they would need to play 3 perfect doubles matches. Even if this happens, I still think it would take a big effort to get 2 singles wins. They are the underdog at every spot in the lineup. I think they have an outside chance to win at 2, 3 and 6 and after those the Bears should dominate. I'm taking Wash U 7-2. I think the Bears may be playing with a chip on their shoulder after moving from 2 to 7 in the national rankings. I suspect DePauw will get a singles win and a doubles win. A tough season for the Tigers and they will miss the tournament for this first time in several years.
Middlebury @ Williams
Williams is one of the few teams in the country who I believe can play with Midd in the bottom of the lineup. Where Williams will fall short is Midd's strength - the top 4 spots. I think the Panthers will come out and dominate there top 4 spots and the only place where I'd say Williams has a chance is probably 2. Williams hasn't been good in doubles this year and this is where you need to get Middlebury if you want to stay in the match heading into singles. Results point to this being a blowout and I'm not going to argue otherwise. Midd just has too much firepower at the top of the lineup and I'll take them in a 7-2 victory. Williams played close with Trinity just a few days ago so they have a lot of work to do if they want to qualify for the final 8 this year.
Middlebury @ Amherst
#1 vs #2 in the NESCAC and finally Amherst has moved into the top 5 in the country after being out of the top 10 for a bit. The Jeffs are playing to their potential and they seem to have found the form that got them to the national championship match last year. The one thing I'm still not sold on is Amherst's doubles. They miss Jung in the #3 spot a lot I think. At the same time, they could have arguably the best #2 doubles team in the country in Kahan/Koenig. Amherst has to play a pretty perfect match to win against Middlebury and their 5 and 6 guys really need to step up. 3 and 4 singles are pretty much a lost cause for Herst. I think they will get either 1 or 2 and 2 doubles. That means they need to find 3 points within the other 2 doubles spots and 5 and 6 singles. I just don't think they can pull it off. Herst will be pumped up on their homecourts with a nice crowd, but I think Midd will be too much. 6-3 Middlebury.
Monday, April 26, 2010
Weekend Recap: April 23-25
UAA Champion Emory EaglesA couple big results of note on Friday. The match that was scheduled for Sunday between Amherst and Trinity (CT) was moved until Friday due to poor weather being forecasted. Amherst was the favorite here but as I've stated over and over Trinity needs to make something happen if they want to make the tournament. Trinity had an opportunity but slipped as they lost a tiebreaker at 3 doubles to give Amherst the momentum going into singles. The Jeffs were too strong and came away with 4 easy singles wins to wrap up the match. Amherst has their chance at Middlebury next weekend so we will see if they can make some magic happen. It would be a big win for Amherst because as of now they are in line to play CMS or Wash U in the NCAA quarterfinals. Moving on, a very surprising result happened in the first round of the UAA tournament. Although Brandeis had some decent results earlier this season, they had just lost to 26th ranked MIT so I didn't consider them a real threat to the Maroons. Chicago jumped out to a lead after doubles and looked like they would run away with the match. Chicago's 1 William Zhang was unable to play and this pushed everyone up a spot for Chicago. This was bad news for Chicago and a 3rd set tiebreak win at #2 singles would prove to be the difference and give Brandeis the win. A tough end to a pretty good season for Chicago and they will miss the tournament once again after underachieving for the 3rd year in a row. A great win for a Brandeis program that looks to be on the rise. The biggest match of the day was the CAC final as Salisbury took on Mary Wash. Although the singles were highly contested, I was pretty sure Mary Wash would win after they took 2 of 3 doubles. They were playing without one of their best players and still managed to win. They just deserve to be in the tournament more than Salisbury. Look at the top 2 singles spots. You have freshman for UMW against senior for Salisbury and UMW takes both spots. Great stuff from the Eagles but Salisbury can't expect to win against good teams turning in performances like that. The Eagles win their 11th conference title in a row.
Three pretty big matches on Saturday with the first being a regular season NESCAC match between Bowdoin and Williams. I expected a competitive match but with Williams at home and needing a win, the outcome was not as I expected. Bowdoin isn't deep enough to play with Williams in singles or doubles and this showed as Williams won comfortably. The outcome was never in doubt. Willams partially solved their doubles woes in this match but their 2 and 3 teams need to keep up the good play. I don't think they have a combination that is effective at 1 and this could hurt them down the road. They've put themselves in good position to make the tournament after this win and probably will enter the NESCAC tournament as the #3 seed. The SCAC semifinal between DePauw and Rhodes I thought was a potential danger match for the Tigers. Rhodes struggled this season in doubles and that continued as DePauw got the doubles sweep. They still had to battle to win the match but chances were good that DePauw would win. In D3, you can't win if you're not winning in doubles and this is where Rhodes fell short all season. DePauw was tested but advanced to the championship to face Trinity (TX). The final match of the day was a top 10 clash between Emory and Carnegie Mellon. The doubles was closely contested but Emory took an expected 2-1 lead. I think CMU needed to get up in doubles if they wanted to win because of Emory's 2 big guns at the top of the singles lineup. Emory closed with 3 quick wins in singles and showed that they are playing well at the end of the season as always. This was stopped at 5-1 but I'm guessing it was probably headed for a 7-2. A dominant performance by Emory and they would face Wash U in a much anticipated final.
3 conference finals took place on Sunday and I'll run through each of the results.
ODAC
Washington & Lee entered the conference tournament in very unfamiliar territory: as the #2 seed and the underdog. The good news for the Generals is that they hosted the match and this was a big advantage for them. HSC played tough doubles and took a much needed 2-1 lead with wins at 1 and 2. In their regular season match, it was 2 wins in the bottom of the singles lineup that propelled HSC to a win. It looked like they only needed one of those this time around. For me, the turning point in this match was the victory for Hayden White at #1 singles. Moss is the heart of the HSC team and it's tough to watch your best player lose to a guy he's beaten twice this year. This win at the top of the lineup put W&L in control of the match and a comeback win at 4 singles all but sealed it for the Generals. They were dominant at both 5 and 6 and were able to win the match despite a loss at #2 singles. W&L brought the ODAC title back to Lexington and will be headed to the NCAA tournament. I think the better team won in this match and the Generals deserve the title.
SCAC
The UAA final was obviously a nerve-racking experience for both teams but I couldn't imagine something tougher than having to play with your season on the line against your biggest rival. The ODAC final also had this, but DePauw and Trinity (TX) are two teams that are so used to success, it's hard to think one of them won't be playing in the NCAA tournament. DePauw had a streak of 3 straight conference titles and last year DePauw knocked Trinity out of the NCAA tournament for the first time in many years. Trinity was out for revenge this year and they found it with some amazing doubles play. They surrendered only 11 games in a doubles sweep to put themselves in complete control of the match. DePauw looked like they would fight back and took the next 3 matches, but after being swept in doubles it's very difficult to complete the comeback. Trinity showed a lot of resiliency and got a 3 set win at 4th singles to seal the match. This win has to feel great for Trinity as they finally took back the conference title. DePauw has one last chance to qualify for the tournament but it would take a win over Wash U next weekend on the road. A great college match which will send Trinity (TX) back to the NCAA tournament.
UAA
In Wash U's last two victories over Emory they have swept the doubles and barely held on for a win. The way Emory has been playing, I felt the Bears may need another doubles sweep if they wanted to win. Pottish just owns Watts right now and Goodwin is untouchable at 2 singles. This is a huge advantage for Emory because Wash U basically needs to win 5 out of 7 matches and that's just not possible against a team as good as Emory. Emory got a shocking win at 1st doubles, which was the spot they lost the previous day. When Emory got the win at 3 doubles, you knew things weren't looking good for Wash U. Emory made the score 4-1 with quick wins at the top and Wash U closed the gap with a win at 3. All eyes turned to #4 singles, but Egan was able to complete a great comeback and win 7-5 in the 3rd to give Emory the UAA title after a one year hiatus. Emory also captured first sets at 5 and 6 singles so this match looked to be well on it's way to a 7-2 final score. A dominant performance from Emory and you could tell they really wanted this win. Wash U needs to regroup and get ready for DePauw this weekend. They hope to turn in a dominant performance before heading to NCAAs.
Thursday, April 22, 2010
A Crucial Weekend
To date, I think this is the most important three day stretch of matches this season. Indoors has blockbuster matches, but this weekend has blockbuster matches as well as seasons on the line. There are 4 automatic bids to the tournament from major conferences on the line as well as two huge NESCAC clashes. We are also going to have two matches take place between top 7 teams. This is going to be a great weekend so let's take a look at the action.
I've had this match circled on my calendar since the beginning of the season and it's finally here. The CAC final between Salisbury and Mary Washington. Mary Wash holds a streak of 10 consecutive conference titles but this is probably the closest these two teams have ever been in both ability and ranking. The Eagles have had a terrible year but the one bright spot for them was a 7-2 win 3 weeks ago against Salisbury which knocked the Sea Gulls out of the top 20. Mary Washington is hosting this match but I'm sure both teams will be ready to play. After looking at the results from the last match, Salisbury knows where they need to improve. If Mary Wash can get ahead in doubles, I think they can cruise to victory. If Salisbury is up, I see this match coming down to the wire because another singles sweep by the Eagles is very unlikely. It's simple for both teams. Win and you go to the tournament or lose and your season is over. Live stats for the match will be at http://www.umweagles.com/sports/2010/4/23/MTEN_0423103939.aspx
Next on our list is a match taking place only a few hours away in Lexington, VA and it's a very similar situation. The season of both teams is on the line. Washington & Lee had a streak of 13 consecutive ODAC finals broken last year by their opponent, Hampden-Sydney. HSC is a pretty average team, but when they play W&L they become a much better team simply because of the rivalry. Whenever HSC plays a top 25 team they get trounced, but they always come to play against W&L and that's why this match will be great. Both teams have a natural dislike for the other and all of their matches come down to the wire. HSC should have 3 wins but they need to find those other 2 from the bottom of their singles lineup. I think W&L will manage to pull it out but this will be close as always.
Two NESCAC matches that I've had my eye on will be taking place this weekend. Home court traditionally helps a lot in NESCAC and both underdogs have the home court this weekend. On Saturday, #12 Williams looks to get their first quality win of the season against #13 Bowdoin. Bowdoin got crushed by Midd last weekend so they will be looking to rebound. This is close to do-or-die time for the Ephs as they need to start producing if they want to make the NCAA Tournament this year. Not making the tournament is unheard of for Williams tennis and unacceptable for a program filled with prized recruits. Bowdoin stands at 13 in the country and they've been doing good work all season without their star player and defending NCAA doubles finalist Oscar Pena. I think a win on Saturday would lock up the #5 spot in Pool C for Bowdoin. They would also avoid a 4-5 match in the first round of the NESCAC tournament. The second match takes place on Sunday with #8 Amherst traveling to take on Trinity (CT). Much like Williams, Trinity is in desperate need of a win and they will need to play their best tennis if they want to beat the Jeffs. Amherst is fresh off a 7-2 rout of Williams and Trinity hasn't done anything special this year. I think Trinity will come close but the Jeffs will be a little too deep. I'm going with the traditional powerhouses in both of these and taking Williams and Amherst to win.
In Arkansas, we have the SCAC tournament taking place and everyone has their eye on the potential final between #14 Trinity (TX) and #16 DePauw. Before we get to the final, DePauw will have to get past a tough Rhodes team, who's a real sleeper this year. I think Rhodes will challenge them, but DePauw should come out victorious. They have to be fresh for the biggest match of their season on Sunday so an extended match against Rhodes is not what they want. Despite some losses, I've been big on Trinity all season and I still am. This is a good and complete team. The thing that worries me about Trinity is that they haven't really been tested in over a month. Rhodes is a good team and a good win, but they aren't the quality of DePauw. On the other hand, DePauw is pretty fresh off the GLCA tournament where they battled Kenyon and Kalamazoo. I would expect DePauw to be more in form but I don't know if this is enough to trump Trinity's advantage in talent. Trinity is desperate to take back the conference title after DePauw has won it 3 consecutive years and I predict that Trinity will do just that this weekend.
The biggest event of the weekend will be the UAA tournament taking place in Pittsburgh. One can make an argument that the UAA is the strongest conference in the country this year with 3 teams in the top 7 in the country this year and a 4th at #15. The first semifinal on Saturday should have #2 Wash U playing against #15 Chicago. The Maroons gave Wash U all they could handle in an early season match but came up just short of what would have been the biggest win in the history of their program. Chicago has another chance to pull the upset but they won't have the element of surprise this time. The Bears have been playing well lately and Chicago hasn't seen any tough opponents in a while. I think Wash U should win in a convincing 8-1 or 7-2 victory. The other semifinal has #3 Emory taking on host and #7 Carnegie Mellon. CMU has been a pleasant surprise this year and many don't believe Emory is deserving of their #3 ranking. CMU matches up fairly well against the Eagles since depth is their strength and the Eagles weakness. I think CMU has the potential to take 3 of the singles, but that would mean they need to come up with 2 big wins in doubles. My guess is that Emory will win a close 6-3, but if CMU can jump on top in doubles this could get interesting. I'll have finals and 3-4 predictions on Saturday after the matches are set.
I've had this match circled on my calendar since the beginning of the season and it's finally here. The CAC final between Salisbury and Mary Washington. Mary Wash holds a streak of 10 consecutive conference titles but this is probably the closest these two teams have ever been in both ability and ranking. The Eagles have had a terrible year but the one bright spot for them was a 7-2 win 3 weeks ago against Salisbury which knocked the Sea Gulls out of the top 20. Mary Washington is hosting this match but I'm sure both teams will be ready to play. After looking at the results from the last match, Salisbury knows where they need to improve. If Mary Wash can get ahead in doubles, I think they can cruise to victory. If Salisbury is up, I see this match coming down to the wire because another singles sweep by the Eagles is very unlikely. It's simple for both teams. Win and you go to the tournament or lose and your season is over. Live stats for the match will be at http://www.umweagles.com/sports/2010/4/23/MTEN_0423103939.aspx
Next on our list is a match taking place only a few hours away in Lexington, VA and it's a very similar situation. The season of both teams is on the line. Washington & Lee had a streak of 13 consecutive ODAC finals broken last year by their opponent, Hampden-Sydney. HSC is a pretty average team, but when they play W&L they become a much better team simply because of the rivalry. Whenever HSC plays a top 25 team they get trounced, but they always come to play against W&L and that's why this match will be great. Both teams have a natural dislike for the other and all of their matches come down to the wire. HSC should have 3 wins but they need to find those other 2 from the bottom of their singles lineup. I think W&L will manage to pull it out but this will be close as always.
Two NESCAC matches that I've had my eye on will be taking place this weekend. Home court traditionally helps a lot in NESCAC and both underdogs have the home court this weekend. On Saturday, #12 Williams looks to get their first quality win of the season against #13 Bowdoin. Bowdoin got crushed by Midd last weekend so they will be looking to rebound. This is close to do-or-die time for the Ephs as they need to start producing if they want to make the NCAA Tournament this year. Not making the tournament is unheard of for Williams tennis and unacceptable for a program filled with prized recruits. Bowdoin stands at 13 in the country and they've been doing good work all season without their star player and defending NCAA doubles finalist Oscar Pena. I think a win on Saturday would lock up the #5 spot in Pool C for Bowdoin. They would also avoid a 4-5 match in the first round of the NESCAC tournament. The second match takes place on Sunday with #8 Amherst traveling to take on Trinity (CT). Much like Williams, Trinity is in desperate need of a win and they will need to play their best tennis if they want to beat the Jeffs. Amherst is fresh off a 7-2 rout of Williams and Trinity hasn't done anything special this year. I think Trinity will come close but the Jeffs will be a little too deep. I'm going with the traditional powerhouses in both of these and taking Williams and Amherst to win.
In Arkansas, we have the SCAC tournament taking place and everyone has their eye on the potential final between #14 Trinity (TX) and #16 DePauw. Before we get to the final, DePauw will have to get past a tough Rhodes team, who's a real sleeper this year. I think Rhodes will challenge them, but DePauw should come out victorious. They have to be fresh for the biggest match of their season on Sunday so an extended match against Rhodes is not what they want. Despite some losses, I've been big on Trinity all season and I still am. This is a good and complete team. The thing that worries me about Trinity is that they haven't really been tested in over a month. Rhodes is a good team and a good win, but they aren't the quality of DePauw. On the other hand, DePauw is pretty fresh off the GLCA tournament where they battled Kenyon and Kalamazoo. I would expect DePauw to be more in form but I don't know if this is enough to trump Trinity's advantage in talent. Trinity is desperate to take back the conference title after DePauw has won it 3 consecutive years and I predict that Trinity will do just that this weekend.
The biggest event of the weekend will be the UAA tournament taking place in Pittsburgh. One can make an argument that the UAA is the strongest conference in the country this year with 3 teams in the top 7 in the country this year and a 4th at #15. The first semifinal on Saturday should have #2 Wash U playing against #15 Chicago. The Maroons gave Wash U all they could handle in an early season match but came up just short of what would have been the biggest win in the history of their program. Chicago has another chance to pull the upset but they won't have the element of surprise this time. The Bears have been playing well lately and Chicago hasn't seen any tough opponents in a while. I think Wash U should win in a convincing 8-1 or 7-2 victory. The other semifinal has #3 Emory taking on host and #7 Carnegie Mellon. CMU has been a pleasant surprise this year and many don't believe Emory is deserving of their #3 ranking. CMU matches up fairly well against the Eagles since depth is their strength and the Eagles weakness. I think CMU has the potential to take 3 of the singles, but that would mean they need to come up with 2 big wins in doubles. My guess is that Emory will win a close 6-3, but if CMU can jump on top in doubles this could get interesting. I'll have finals and 3-4 predictions on Saturday after the matches are set.
Monday, April 19, 2010
Weekend Recap: April 16-17
7 matches of note took place and 2 automatic bids from major conferences were awarded for the tournament. Starting with Saturday, the SCIAC final was a match that we expected between CMS and Cal Lu and a battle between 2 of the top 5 teams in the country. Both teams took care of business against respectable teams on Friday so I was looking forward to a competitive result. CMS did to CLU exactly what the Kingsmen did to Cruz earlier this season. Came out very hot and put the match out of reach after doubles. Cal Lu was able to take 4 first sets to make things interesting for a while but CMS closed quickly with wins at 2 and 6. The 9 point system strikes again, but at the same time, most teams have been victimized as well as benefitted from it. CLU lost 2 of the 3 spots they needed to win the match and this proved to be the difference. In all likelihood, these teams will see each other again in a few weeks for the 3rd and final time.
One the other side of the country, Middlebury put together it's most dominant performance to date absolutely crushing a tough Bowdoin team. They looked not only dominant in singles but also in doubles and after this weekend it makes me think once again that no one will come close to the Panthers this year. Bowdoin needs to regroup and get ready for an upcoming test against Williams that could make them close to a lock for the tournament. Midd looks tough but they will probably face their most stern test yet when they take on Williams and Amherst on back to back days in 2 weekends. Midd once again cemented their place as the country's top team.
Mary Wash had a convincing win against Hamden-Sydney. I believe the ODAC final is this weekend and HSC and W&L will face off for the automatic bid. Also, Mary Wash will host Salisbury on Friday for the right to the CAC automatic bid as well. It is possible that both of these teams seasons could be over a week from now, but it's also possible they could both be headed to the tournament.
A match that I didn't have on the schedule but probably should have was the USA South conference final between Newport and NC Wes. I think both teams needed a win to get in the tournament and I was scratching my head a little bit when Newport managed to win 2 of the doubles to take the lead. The problem for CNU just like it has been all season is that they aren't deep enough in singles. With the illness of Widing, they don't have enough players who can compete against the likes of top 15 teams. Their top guys have taken care of business but they haven't been getting wins anywhere else. This showed as they won I think 7 combined games in the bottom 4 singles spots which just doesn't get it done against a team the quality of NCW. Wesleyan takes their 2nd consecutive conference title and will be headed to the tournament.
Mary Wash tried to use the momentum of the last two matches to upset Hopkins but they were in trouble before the match even started because one of their best players, arguably their most valuable player, wasn't able to play due to cramps the day before. Probably a good call by their coach to rest him for the upcoming week. Mary Wash was able to get their lone win at the 1 doubles spot, but besides that Hopkins crushed them. A much needed win for Hopkins and the 2nd year in a row that they have destroyed Mary Wash. I have mixed feelings on both of these teams going forward and we will see if UMW is up to the challenge this week.
Kalamazoo has really been struggling lately and it looked like that would continue when Gustavus was able to jump on top of the Hornets with 2 doubles victories. Riley had to be pretty upset with his guys because Kzoo is playing nowhere near their potential right now. His speech between singles and doubles must have work because Kalamazoo came out and swept the singles, which was actually somewhat of a surprise for me. I think this was a closer 7-2 than the score, but Kzoo got the job done. Gustavus needs to focus on beating Carleton again so they can defend their conference title and make the tournament. Kzoo needs to find their game from early in the season.
The biggest match of the day was the heated rivalry between Amherst and Williams. Williams has yet to do anything of note this season and with a home match I expected a lot out of them in this match. They just haven't been producing in doubles and this continued as they struggled to win games at the top 3 spots. Amherst is obviously a strong team but if Williams wants to do anything on the national scene this year and even qualify for the tournament, they have got to pick up their doubles play because it's a joke right now. Credit to Herst who went into Williamstown and took care of business. Williams now faces an absolute must win against Bowdoin this weekend or their season could be over very soon. Much like Trinity (CT), the lack of an out of conference schedule is killing Williams right now and they could find themselves out of the top 15 next week if they don't bring it this weekend.
One the other side of the country, Middlebury put together it's most dominant performance to date absolutely crushing a tough Bowdoin team. They looked not only dominant in singles but also in doubles and after this weekend it makes me think once again that no one will come close to the Panthers this year. Bowdoin needs to regroup and get ready for an upcoming test against Williams that could make them close to a lock for the tournament. Midd looks tough but they will probably face their most stern test yet when they take on Williams and Amherst on back to back days in 2 weekends. Midd once again cemented their place as the country's top team.
Mary Wash had a convincing win against Hamden-Sydney. I believe the ODAC final is this weekend and HSC and W&L will face off for the automatic bid. Also, Mary Wash will host Salisbury on Friday for the right to the CAC automatic bid as well. It is possible that both of these teams seasons could be over a week from now, but it's also possible they could both be headed to the tournament.
A match that I didn't have on the schedule but probably should have was the USA South conference final between Newport and NC Wes. I think both teams needed a win to get in the tournament and I was scratching my head a little bit when Newport managed to win 2 of the doubles to take the lead. The problem for CNU just like it has been all season is that they aren't deep enough in singles. With the illness of Widing, they don't have enough players who can compete against the likes of top 15 teams. Their top guys have taken care of business but they haven't been getting wins anywhere else. This showed as they won I think 7 combined games in the bottom 4 singles spots which just doesn't get it done against a team the quality of NCW. Wesleyan takes their 2nd consecutive conference title and will be headed to the tournament.
Mary Wash tried to use the momentum of the last two matches to upset Hopkins but they were in trouble before the match even started because one of their best players, arguably their most valuable player, wasn't able to play due to cramps the day before. Probably a good call by their coach to rest him for the upcoming week. Mary Wash was able to get their lone win at the 1 doubles spot, but besides that Hopkins crushed them. A much needed win for Hopkins and the 2nd year in a row that they have destroyed Mary Wash. I have mixed feelings on both of these teams going forward and we will see if UMW is up to the challenge this week.
Kalamazoo has really been struggling lately and it looked like that would continue when Gustavus was able to jump on top of the Hornets with 2 doubles victories. Riley had to be pretty upset with his guys because Kzoo is playing nowhere near their potential right now. His speech between singles and doubles must have work because Kalamazoo came out and swept the singles, which was actually somewhat of a surprise for me. I think this was a closer 7-2 than the score, but Kzoo got the job done. Gustavus needs to focus on beating Carleton again so they can defend their conference title and make the tournament. Kzoo needs to find their game from early in the season.
The biggest match of the day was the heated rivalry between Amherst and Williams. Williams has yet to do anything of note this season and with a home match I expected a lot out of them in this match. They just haven't been producing in doubles and this continued as they struggled to win games at the top 3 spots. Amherst is obviously a strong team but if Williams wants to do anything on the national scene this year and even qualify for the tournament, they have got to pick up their doubles play because it's a joke right now. Credit to Herst who went into Williamstown and took care of business. Williams now faces an absolute must win against Bowdoin this weekend or their season could be over very soon. Much like Trinity (CT), the lack of an out of conference schedule is killing Williams right now and they could find themselves out of the top 15 next week if they don't bring it this weekend.
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Thursday March 25th
Three matches of note taking place tomorrow and I'll just run through them quickly. To begin, Chicago looks to move their spring break trip record to 3-0 when they travel to Mary Washington tomorrow to take on the Eagles. Every match is important for the Maroons because NCAAs are constantly on the line. Chicago made a fairly drastic switch moving Stefanski to #1 and Zhang back to #2. No matter the order tomorrow, I think Chicago will win the top 2 spots. The Maroons match up well with the Eagles in my opinion and I'm expecting a fairly easy win for Chicago. Mary Wash's only chance is to take a 2-1 or 3-0 lead in doubles. The Eagles haven't shown much promise this year and Chicago has played solid but not great tennis during their first two spring break matches. The Maroons need to run through the match tomorrow to gain momentum for the big one against Hopkins.
Williams plays their first D3 match of the season in North Carolina against NC Wesleyan. NCW got a wake up call on Saturday when they were beaten badly by Hopkins, so they will be hungry to play good tennis tomorrow. Both teams are very deep in singles but I think Williams is a little bit stronger. They should get wins from Lebedoff and Sun and NCW will need to match those wins in the bottom spots which I don't know if they can do. Williams has been traditionally weak in doubles so this is a question mark for me. NCW swept Mary Wash in dubs then they were swept by Hopkins. They need to be on their A game in doubles if they want to have a chance tomorrow. I think if Williams leads after doubles, things are looking good for them to get a win. An upset is possible but I'm thinking Williams should win a close 6-3. Williams needs to get some out of conference wins on their resume.
The biggest match of the day is Cruz at CMS. Santa Cruz has lost two recent matches after winning Indoors so I'm not sure what type of mindset their team is in. CMS lost a surprise match to Amherst but recovered nicely against a strong Bowdoin team. If Santa Cruz loses tomorrow, we know for sure that they won't be hosting the West Regional for NCAAs. This could end up being very important. This match is a battle every year and I expect a match coming down to the wire tomorrow. In singles, I think things will be very even. 1 through 3 can both go either way, but I like CMS towards the bottom of the lineup. In doubles, Cruz should win 1 and the bottom 2 are unpredictable. CMS will get at least 1 on their homecourts, but I'm not encouraged after either team's doubles performances in their recent matches. I'm going with CMS in a nailbiter tomorrow but obviously this one can go either way.
Williams plays their first D3 match of the season in North Carolina against NC Wesleyan. NCW got a wake up call on Saturday when they were beaten badly by Hopkins, so they will be hungry to play good tennis tomorrow. Both teams are very deep in singles but I think Williams is a little bit stronger. They should get wins from Lebedoff and Sun and NCW will need to match those wins in the bottom spots which I don't know if they can do. Williams has been traditionally weak in doubles so this is a question mark for me. NCW swept Mary Wash in dubs then they were swept by Hopkins. They need to be on their A game in doubles if they want to have a chance tomorrow. I think if Williams leads after doubles, things are looking good for them to get a win. An upset is possible but I'm thinking Williams should win a close 6-3. Williams needs to get some out of conference wins on their resume.
The biggest match of the day is Cruz at CMS. Santa Cruz has lost two recent matches after winning Indoors so I'm not sure what type of mindset their team is in. CMS lost a surprise match to Amherst but recovered nicely against a strong Bowdoin team. If Santa Cruz loses tomorrow, we know for sure that they won't be hosting the West Regional for NCAAs. This could end up being very important. This match is a battle every year and I expect a match coming down to the wire tomorrow. In singles, I think things will be very even. 1 through 3 can both go either way, but I like CMS towards the bottom of the lineup. In doubles, Cruz should win 1 and the bottom 2 are unpredictable. CMS will get at least 1 on their homecourts, but I'm not encouraged after either team's doubles performances in their recent matches. I'm going with CMS in a nailbiter tomorrow but obviously this one can go either way.
Sunday, February 14, 2010
Season Preview #31: Williams
General Team Discussion - Williams had a disappointing year by their standards in 2009 and the past few years they haven't been able to match their success from early in the decade. This year's team has a lot of talent and Williams boasts the best D3 freshman class including Felix Sun, who looks to be the best freshman in D3. Williams underwent a coaching change and Dan Greenberg is now in charge after a very successful career with Williams that ended in 2008. He looks to add a lot to this program and lead them back to the Final 4. As everyone knows, Williams is one of the "Big 3" in the best conference in the country and their ongoing rivalry with Amherst and Middlebury is one of the best story lines in D3 this year. I mentioned this team is talented, but I'm not quite sure what to expect from them this year. They have been a consistent quarterfinalist in NCAAs and on paper this is a great team, but I wasn't impressed with the fall results. They had a trip to California in 2009 and Texas in 2008, but they do neither of these this year. They only play 2 teams out-of-conference who are projected to be top 20 and this could hurt them if they don't beat the top NESCAC schools. I think Williams will float between 6 and 11 in the rankings for most of the year and I'm unsure about their NCAA outlook as of now.
Where They'll Win - Williams has a great top of the lineup to go along with outstanding depth. Nick Lebedoff was a very established junior player and he is now the senior leader for this team at #1 singles. Jeremy Weinberger will most likely fit into the #3 spot and he is another senior. They mix their experience with youth and as I said above, Felix Sun beat Chafetz in the fall and most likely will spend time in the #2 spot this spring. They also have a very tough 4 through 6. Williams just doesn't have any holes and on a good day they are competitive at all 6 singles spots against anyone in the country.
Where They'll Lose - Doubles has been a big issue for the pas few years and I think it could become an even bigger problem this year after graduating Bret Thacher, who played #1 doubles for a good portion of his career. Williams has the talent, they just can't seem to put it together in doubles. Too often, they find themselves down 2-1 or 3-0 and can't recover against teams who can match them in singles. They need to get their doubles figured out or they won't have a chance against Amherst or Middlebury.
Schedule Analysis - I'm not sure why Williams doesn't play more of a non-conference schedule. They travel to NC Wesleyan and Emory in the beginning of their season before NESCAC play. They have to be careful that they don't go winless in those two matches. During NESCAC play, they have Amherst and Middlebury at home so this goes to their advantage. They need to watch out for a dangerous Bowdoin team on the road though, and they also have to travel to Trinity (CT), who upset them two years ago. The NESCAC tournament will be big for Williams to see how in form they are heading to NCAAs.
Saturday, December 26, 2009
10 Things to Watch in 2010
10. Does Kenyon continue to plateau? Kenyon announced themselves as a national title contender two years ago but since then they have really plateaued and found it tough to break out of that 6-10 range in the rankings. Will their win against Amherst in the Fall help them with confidence in the Spring? They are the favorite to come out of their half of the Indoors bracket but this could be their last chance at glory for several years. They lose their Brody, Greenberg, Vandenberg core and I believe Piskacek is graduating as well. This may be Kenyon's last chance at a national title for many years to come.
9. NC Wesleyan in the top 15? Mary Wash out of the top 20? It sounds strange, but it's definitely possible. A potential shakeup in the Atlantic South. Mary Wash has their weakest team in several years and although they are pretty deep, they don't have any stars. That being said, the more I look at this team the more I think they could be dangerous come May. NC Wesleyan quietly had an excellent season last year and beat UMW in NCAAs. Their influx of foreign players and great work by Coach Modise have them listed as a team that nobody wants to play. They play a tougher schedule this season so we will see how they fair.
8. Trinity (TX) ends their year long meltdown The Tigers entered the 2008 SCAC tournament ranked #1 in the country. Since then they lost to an 18th ranked DePauw, lost in regionals, then followed it up by missing NCAAs in 2009. Their team is a year older now and they seem to have an outstanding Freshman in Delafuente. Can they make their way back into the top 10 in the country and end DePauw's 3 year streak of conference titles? I really like this team and I think they are very dangerous with 3 excellent players near the top of their lineup supplemented by above average doubles and a tough bottom.
7. Continued UAA Dominance? Wash U and Emory have entered the last 2 NCAA tournaments as the top 2 seeds. They really have controlled D3 the past two years and all eyes have been on them being on a collision course for the finals. While they were both derailed in the semis last year they were probably the two most talented teams. Emory has been to 8 straight final fours but I think this could be their weakest team in several years with the loss of Michael Goodwin. Pottish had a great fall but can he carry them? Will these two UAA powers meet again in the national finals? They are scheduled to play in the semis of Indoors.
6. A lot of very even teams this year 2 years ago we had upsets galore during the season. Last year things were a bit more predictable. This year I expect something in the middle, but to me there is no outstanding team who is unbeatable. I see a cutoff around #4 in the country but after that you could say the next 10-12 teams are evenly matched and could beat each other on any given day. I expect to see a lot of switching in the rankings from the preseason to the end of the year and I would be surprised if any one team comes out of this year undefeated.
5. JHU and CMU announce themselves on the national scene I thought these two were academic powerhouses? Both have announced themselves on the national scene moving into the top 10 in the preseason rankings. CMU beat Amherst in the fall and JHU has arguably the best 3-4-5 punch of anyone in the country. Both of these teams can knock off anyone on the right day and I don't think its a stretch to say they are both very legitimate Final 4 contenders. If both teams' players can conquer their schoolwork and put in long hours on the court we could potentially see one of these two making a deep run at nationals.
4. Gustavus doesn't win the MIAC I cannot remember the last time Gustavus was ranked outside the top 15 in the country, let alone the top 10. But 25th? 7 spots behind MIAC rival Carleton? This is crazy. But is it? Carleton has slowly built up a very strong team and Gustavus is in the definition of a rebuilding year with a very young team and a new coach replacing a legend. In my heart of hearts I still think Gustavus will find a way to win the conference at home and get the NCAA bid, but Carleton is certainly closing the gap and this could be their year. Coach Valentini needs to do some serious restructuring.
3. A down year for West powerhouses The Slugs and CMS both lost some valuable senior leadership. Cruz has a very young team and they have their hands full immediately at Indoors with CMU in a match that I frankly expect them to lose. That being said, Hansen is probably the best coach in the country and finds a way to win. CMS lost their 4-year superstar Larry Wang and although Erani is emerging as a top player, I don't know if he can carry them. While these should both be fixtures in the top 12, I see both teams finishing probably 5th at best. These two probably have harder training regimens than anyone in the country and they will need extra work to hang with the big boys this year.
2. 3 of the top 5 in the country from NESCAC? It's not a stretch. Amherst dug themselves into a hole this fall but when they return to full strength with Chafetz and Koenig, you could call them #1 in the country. Middlebury is pleasantly surprised with the return of Conrad Olson and the emergence of Andrew Peters, giving them clearly the strongest top 4 in the country in addition to the ITA doubles national champions. Williams is the weakest of the bunch but with a new coach and several strong freshman including potential superstar Felix Sun, they are a tough out. I expect Amherst and Midd in the top 4 in the country, but I think Williams would need some magic to break into the top 5.
1. Wash U returns to the winner's circle My preseason prediction for nationals. John Watts is a senior and he'e been the best player in D3 post-Seeberger. It's only fitting to see him go out a champion. Although they lost a strong senior class, the Bears have an excellent supporting cast after Watts. Stein/Woods are a dominant #1 doubles team and potentially devastating 2-3 punch in singles as well. Freshman Putterman looks like he will definitely be playing in the top 4 and should be very instrumental in Wash U's success. If they are weak anywhere it's the bottom of the lineup in singles and doubles. They will be tested immediately against an improved Chicago team followed by national title contender JHU in what should be the best Indoors 1st round in years.
Monday, April 20, 2009
Weekend Recap
First, I'll start off with the SCIAC tournament. Things really went as expected here. The one surprising result was a 5-4 win for Redlands against Cal Lu in the semis. Redlands seems as though they peaked at the wrong time this season. Their NCAA outlook looks grim. A pretty good season for both Cal Lu and Pomona-Pitzer. Both were strong teams who gave some national contenders a tough time. Look for both of those programs to improve over the next few years, especially P-P. CMS really took care of business in the finals and they look great going into their match with Santa Cruz. You have to like the Stags right now even though the match is on the Slugs homecourt. Definitely looking forward to that one in only a few weeks.
Three pretty important NESCAC matches took place this weekend, with Amherst and Williams asserting their dominance over the #4 and #5 NESCAC teams. It seems as though there is a clear divide between the top 3 and Bowdoin/Trinity (CT) this year. Bowdoin had a disappointing weekend, really getting crushed by Amherst. I'm really questioning Bowdoin right now. Sullivan hasn't been leading this team and they have been struggling. Williams and Amherst both look great and Trinity (CT) needs a win against Williams on Wednesday to make a splash in Pool C.
Another quick note is that Gustavus had a dominant win on the road against Kalamazoo. The Gusties have put themselves in a position to host an NCAA regional once again and unless some unforeseen circumstances occur, they should find themselves in the Elite 8 again.
The results of the weekend were from the UAA Championships. Both semifinals were pretty routine victories as expected, but there were two pretty big surprises in the championship and 3rd-4th matches. To start, I expected a real war between CMU and Chicago. CMU won 2 doubles and 3 easy singles matches to take this one very routinely over a Chicago team who needs to go back to the drawing board for next season. They are loaded with talent, but they haven't put all the pieces together yet. CMU ended well and they have to think their doubles really improved this season. This is a good win to bolster their NCAA resume. The upset of the year in my opinion occurred in the Championship match. Emory seemed pretty much unbeatable the whole year and even their 5-4 victories weren't really "close." Wash U came out and swept the doubles which really was a knockout blow because we knew Watts was an automatic at 1. A great fight by Emory to almost come back but the hole from doubles was just too big. Wash U is the new #1 team in the country heading into NCAAs.
Three pretty important NESCAC matches took place this weekend, with Amherst and Williams asserting their dominance over the #4 and #5 NESCAC teams. It seems as though there is a clear divide between the top 3 and Bowdoin/Trinity (CT) this year. Bowdoin had a disappointing weekend, really getting crushed by Amherst. I'm really questioning Bowdoin right now. Sullivan hasn't been leading this team and they have been struggling. Williams and Amherst both look great and Trinity (CT) needs a win against Williams on Wednesday to make a splash in Pool C.
Another quick note is that Gustavus had a dominant win on the road against Kalamazoo. The Gusties have put themselves in a position to host an NCAA regional once again and unless some unforeseen circumstances occur, they should find themselves in the Elite 8 again.
The results of the weekend were from the UAA Championships. Both semifinals were pretty routine victories as expected, but there were two pretty big surprises in the championship and 3rd-4th matches. To start, I expected a real war between CMU and Chicago. CMU won 2 doubles and 3 easy singles matches to take this one very routinely over a Chicago team who needs to go back to the drawing board for next season. They are loaded with talent, but they haven't put all the pieces together yet. CMU ended well and they have to think their doubles really improved this season. This is a good win to bolster their NCAA resume. The upset of the year in my opinion occurred in the Championship match. Emory seemed pretty much unbeatable the whole year and even their 5-4 victories weren't really "close." Wash U came out and swept the doubles which really was a knockout blow because we knew Watts was an automatic at 1. A great fight by Emory to almost come back but the hole from doubles was just too big. Wash U is the new #1 team in the country heading into NCAAs.
Thursday, April 16, 2009
#11 Bowdoin at #7 Williams Match Preview
1. Neely/Pena vs Chaplin/Thacher
2. Sullivan/Caughron vs. Lebedoff/Petrie
3. Anderson/White vs. Weinberger/Shallcross
1. Steve Sullivan vs. Nick Lebedoff
2. Oscar Pena vs. Jeremy Weinberger
3. Tyler Anderson vs. Rick Devlin
4. Josh Cranin vs. Will Petrie
5. Alex Caughron vs. Kevin Shallcross
6. Alex White vs. Karol Furmaga
I think a lot depends on how Williams comes out. We've seen many faces of Williams so far this season, particularly in doubles. I'll start by looking at the singles. I see Bowdoin with a clear advantage at both 1 and 2 singles. I expect Williams to strike back at both 3. and 4 singles. The bottom of the lineup should produce some close matches, but I think Williams depth will prevail to give them 4 of 6 singles match. Bowdoin has looked good in doubles, I would expect them to take 2 of the spots. Williams on the other hand has been extremely inconsistent in doubles and I think it's very hard to predict how they'll come out for this match. They have the potential to sweep or get swept. I think they will come out of this match with a 5-4 win, but if Williams comes out to play it could be as bad at 7-2.
2. Sullivan/Caughron vs. Lebedoff/Petrie
3. Anderson/White vs. Weinberger/Shallcross
1. Steve Sullivan vs. Nick Lebedoff
2. Oscar Pena vs. Jeremy Weinberger
3. Tyler Anderson vs. Rick Devlin
4. Josh Cranin vs. Will Petrie
5. Alex Caughron vs. Kevin Shallcross
6. Alex White vs. Karol Furmaga
I think a lot depends on how Williams comes out. We've seen many faces of Williams so far this season, particularly in doubles. I'll start by looking at the singles. I see Bowdoin with a clear advantage at both 1 and 2 singles. I expect Williams to strike back at both 3. and 4 singles. The bottom of the lineup should produce some close matches, but I think Williams depth will prevail to give them 4 of 6 singles match. Bowdoin has looked good in doubles, I would expect them to take 2 of the spots. Williams on the other hand has been extremely inconsistent in doubles and I think it's very hard to predict how they'll come out for this match. They have the potential to sweep or get swept. I think they will come out of this match with a 5-4 win, but if Williams comes out to play it could be as bad at 7-2.
Friday, March 27, 2009
#4 Williams at #3 CMS Match Preview
1. Chaplin/Thacher vs. Schils/Wang
2. Lebedoff/Petrie vs. Erani/Wu
3. Shallcross/Weinberger vs. Keiffer/Lim
1. Nick Lebedoff vs. Lawrence Wang
2. Jeremy Weinberger vs. Robbie Erani
3. Rick Devlin vs. Mikey Lim
4. Will Petrie vs. Russell Brockett
5. Kevin Shallcross vs. Victor Chien
6. Karol Furmaga vs. Ronald Wu
Williams is one of the few teams in the country who can compete with CMS at the bottom of the lineup. These two had a great match at NCAA's last year and I would expect a similar result this time. CMS should jump on top in doubles on their home courts with wins at 1 and 2. I would expect Williams to answer with a win at #3. The top 2 singles spots are definitely an advantage for CMS and should give them a nearly insurmountable 4-1 lead. The bottom 4 matches will all be competitive and I would expect a split at 4 through 6. I think Williams has a good chance, particularly with #4 singles to keep the score respectable. CMS should be too much and I would expect a 6-3 victory for them.
2. Lebedoff/Petrie vs. Erani/Wu
3. Shallcross/Weinberger vs. Keiffer/Lim
1. Nick Lebedoff vs. Lawrence Wang
2. Jeremy Weinberger vs. Robbie Erani
3. Rick Devlin vs. Mikey Lim
4. Will Petrie vs. Russell Brockett
5. Kevin Shallcross vs. Victor Chien
6. Karol Furmaga vs. Ronald Wu
Williams is one of the few teams in the country who can compete with CMS at the bottom of the lineup. These two had a great match at NCAA's last year and I would expect a similar result this time. CMS should jump on top in doubles on their home courts with wins at 1 and 2. I would expect Williams to answer with a win at #3. The top 2 singles spots are definitely an advantage for CMS and should give them a nearly insurmountable 4-1 lead. The bottom 4 matches will all be competitive and I would expect a split at 4 through 6. I think Williams has a good chance, particularly with #4 singles to keep the score respectable. CMS should be too much and I would expect a 6-3 victory for them.
Thursday, March 26, 2009
#4 Williams at #10 Redlands Match Preview
1. Chaplin/Thacher vs. Reading/Spearman
2. Lebedoff/Petrie vs. Hammond/Wong
3. Shallcross/Weinberger vs. Fashouer/Trippel
1. Nick Lebedoff vs. Cameron Spearman
2. Jeremy Weinberger vs. Mike Reading
3. Rick Devlin vs. Matt Liebman
4. Will Petrie vs. Chris Trippel
5. Kevin Shallcross vs. Aron Ouye
6. Karol Furmaga vs. Jeff Hammond
I'm going to call an upset in this match. I don't think Williams is as good as Midd or Amherst this year and it's up to them to prove me wrong by beating Redlands comfortably. Both of these teams pride themselves on singles and doubles depth. I like Redlands to come out on top in doubles with wins at 1 and 2 and I would expect Williams to answer at 3 dubs keeping themselves in the match. Spearman should take care of Lebedoff and despite 2 losses for Weinberger, I would expect him to be able to win at 2. Devlin could provide Williams last point in this match. Hammond has been nearly untouchable at 6 this year and Trippel and Ouye are tough competitors. I think Redlands should be able to take 2 of the matches between 4 and 6 to give themselves an upset victory. Definitely a real test for Williams and we will see what they are made of this season.
2. Lebedoff/Petrie vs. Hammond/Wong
3. Shallcross/Weinberger vs. Fashouer/Trippel
1. Nick Lebedoff vs. Cameron Spearman
2. Jeremy Weinberger vs. Mike Reading
3. Rick Devlin vs. Matt Liebman
4. Will Petrie vs. Chris Trippel
5. Kevin Shallcross vs. Aron Ouye
6. Karol Furmaga vs. Jeff Hammond
I'm going to call an upset in this match. I don't think Williams is as good as Midd or Amherst this year and it's up to them to prove me wrong by beating Redlands comfortably. Both of these teams pride themselves on singles and doubles depth. I like Redlands to come out on top in doubles with wins at 1 and 2 and I would expect Williams to answer at 3 dubs keeping themselves in the match. Spearman should take care of Lebedoff and despite 2 losses for Weinberger, I would expect him to be able to win at 2. Devlin could provide Williams last point in this match. Hammond has been nearly untouchable at 6 this year and Trippel and Ouye are tough competitors. I think Redlands should be able to take 2 of the matches between 4 and 6 to give themselves an upset victory. Definitely a real test for Williams and we will see what they are made of this season.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)