Weekend Preview: San Antonio and Pittsburgh

Wash U's Adam Putterman, courtesy ITA

19 important matches happening during easily the biggest weekend of the season. I'm going to split it up into 2 different previews and tonight I'll be discussing 4 teams meeting in San Antonio and 3 teams meeting in Pittsburgh.

San Antonio Schedule (All Times Eastern)

Current National Rankings: #4 CMS, #5 Wash U, #6 Cruz, #11 Trinity (TX)

Friday: 11AM, Wash U vs. UC Santa Cruz, 330PM CMS @ Trinity (TX)
Saturday: 11AM CMS vs. Cruz, 3PM Wash U @ Trinity (TX)
Sunday: 11AM Wash U vs. CMS, 1230PM Cruz @ Trinity (TX)

A huge weekend that all of these teams had circled on their calendar as soon as the schedule was made. The home team currently has the lowest national ranking, but that can all be thrown out the window at this point because Trinity has a significant home court advantage on outdoor courts that are probably faster than their opponents are accustomed to. Blog readers like the Stags to go undefeated this weekend, but I'm not so sure about that. I don't even want to try to predict each of these matches, but I will say that I don't expect anyone to come away winless. CMS has the best chance of emerging unbeaten, but I know Trinity isn't going to just lie down because they had a rocky start to the season. 2 of the 6 matches will be rematches from Indoors, both involving Cruz, so I'll be interested to see how those results change since 6 weeks ago. Last time Trinity hosted this in 2008, Williams, Wash U and CMS came to San Antonio. If I'm not mistaken, all 4 teams were top 8 in the country at the time. CMS ended up going 0-3 and no one came away undefeated with Trinity, Williams and Wash U all going 2-1. WU went on to win the national title and CMS finished 3rd. I don't expect a repeat of that, but it's important to remember that it's hard to be in top form 3 days in a row, and when you are playing tough opponents like this, getting up for matches and preparation play a huge role that can't accurately be measured. Coach McMindes is well aware that his team needs to make a statement this weekend and I expect them to do it. They had a rocky start to the season as expected, but it's time for them to turn it on. CMS wants to establish themselves as a front runner in the national title race and they also want to make sure that they host the NCAA West regional. The CMS-Cruz match is a highlight of every season and should be fantastic. Cruz comes in not having been really tested in a while, but they typically improve throughout a season very quickly. Cruz is dangerous as always this weekend and they are putting their 8 match winning streak against Trinity on the line. Cruz lost to Wash U at Indoors and lost to CMS twice last year, so I think the Slugs have something to prove against both of those opponents. To me, Wash U is the real wildcard here. They win with doubles and depth, a combo that worked for them at Indoors. They are a high energy team who is very fit and will surely be in top shape all 3 days. I know I picked them 7th in preseason, but the way they played at Indoors they are very tough to beat. I expect 6 great matches and a lot of drama in what really is a simulation of the 3 day stretch that is the NCAA Final Rounds.

Pittsburgh Schedule (All Times Eastern)

Current National Rankings: #8 Carnegie Mellon, #25 Mary Washington

Friday: 4PM Denison @ Carnegie Mellon
Saturday: 12PM Denison vs. Mary Washington
Sunday: 11AM Mary Washington @ Carnegie Mellon

Live Stats

CMU is the favorite to dominate this weekend and they have traditionally been very tough at home over the past few seasons. They haven't seen D3 action in a couple weeks and I think they also realize that these are must-wins. They're ranked 8th in the country, but they do have a 1-3 record against ranked D3 teams this year. Granted their losses are to #3, #6 and #7, but they are lacking in the wins category. These matches would really help, because after all, they are competing for a Pool C spot. Sitting in the top 10, it's hard to foresee the fact that it's possible you don't make the tournament at all. CMU has pretty much no margin for error and although they have a long way to go, they can't slip up, especially this weekend. I don't want to get into specific NCAA scenarios, but a loss here may drop them back to 17th or 18th in the national rankings, which is something they absolutely cannot afford. That being said, this is a really good team that had Cruz on the ropes and beat a full strength CLU squad. They are 8 in the country for a reason and I expect them to show that this weekend. They play a Denison squad who is coming off a 7-2 loss against 26th ranked Rhodes, but remember that Denison was points away from beating Chicago only 7 weeks ago. Denison can play solid doubles and if CMU doesn't come prepared, they can get in trouble quickly and not be able to escape with a win. The Tartans have to respect these opponents despite their rankings and recent results. I've said plenty about Mary Wash these past few weeks and they are coming off a 7-2 loss to 23rd ranked Bates, but the fact that they look good on paper hasn't changed. This remains a talented team and the past 3 years they have played some very tight matches against Carnegie. CMU's 8th ranked team only beat #22 Mary Wash 5-4 last year, so this is another danger match for the home team. The Saturday match just serves as a confidence booster as Denison looks to improve for their upcoming shot against conference rival Kenyon, and UMW looks to move toward extending their conference streak to 13 consecutive titles. The bottom line is if CMU shows up this weekend, they will take care of business, but that is much easier said than done.

Indoors Review By Team

Cal Lutheran - The Kingsmen did worse than their worst case scenario. Not good. Their 1-2-3 punch turned out to be a 1-2 punch. Player to watch Ray Worley didn't do what he needed to do this weekend, and he needs to win for this team to be good. You can't get it done with only 2 players. A bright spot was Justin Wilson who I would suspect may move to the #3 spot in the coming weeks. I'm not sure where the Kingsmen will drop to in the rankings, but whatever it is, they need to worry about even making NCAAs. With only 6 spots available, I'm thinking the cutoff will be 13 or 14 and they may very well be out of the NCAA tournament when the next rankings come out. This team was demoralized after their first match and things hit them so fast. They went from thinking they would be in the semis to being down 3-0 to NCW in the 7th place match in a 24-hour span. 1 of 2 things will happen: either they will go in the tank and decide they just aren't that good this season, or they will go home and train harder and remember that they still have 13 ranked teams to play this season. The team is still there, they just need to get their heads on straight. Weekend MVP is clearly Nick Ballou because without him they wouldn't have been competitive at all in this tournament. He went 5-1 on the weekend. Their next real test is this Saturday when they take on conference rival Pomona-Pitzer in what amounts to a must win match for the Kingsmen.

NC Wesleyan - They didn't do what they wanted, but at least they got a win. The Bishops know what level they need to be to compete with the top 10 teams in the country and at the moment I see them just on the outskirts of the top 10. They need to go work on their doubles because even though they have an excellent singles lineup top to bottom, they will never do anything if they can't play doubles. I thought taking a point from Trinity was a huge step for them in doubles and then they saw how easy life is after you sweep doubles when they played against CLU. Like I said, I expected something from them in the Wash U match and got nothing, which was disappointing to see. They aren't quite there yet, but they are slowly making progress. Weekend MVP for them is freshman Robert Kielberg who went 4-0 for them in their last two matches including huge doubles wins at #1 over Trinity and Cal Lu. He certainly looks like a promising player for a young Bishops team. Looking ahead, they don't have much until 1 month from today when they take on Hopkins in North Carolina. This is a huge match when it comes to NCAA seeding and hosting as well as a confidence boost for both teams. They solidified their place as a heavy favorite in the USA South and now need to focus their efforts on getting a high ranking and nice NCAA regional.

Mary Washington - A great tournament for the hosts as they did exactly what they needed to do this weekend and that was get a win. They came into the tournament ranked 12 spots below the lowest team and will leave the tournament most likely ranked in the top 15. This was a massive weekend for a team that has been struggling for the better part of the last 2 years and I can't say enough about their fight and effort on Saturday. Todd Helbling does a great job with this program and they should leave this tournament feeling really good about their potential this season. They have an excellent mix of youth and experience and have a complete lineup with a strong #1 in Player To Watch Sam Wichlin supplemented by a deep supporting cast. I have to give weekend MVP to Kevin Aquino who was huge in the Cal Lu match for them. He wasn't all that great in the other 2 matches, but he generated 2 points in their lone win including a come from behind doubles win and the deciding match at 4-4. Looking ahead, the Eagles leave for California and will have 2 important matches out there against Pomona-Pitzer and Redlands. These are 2 matches I expect the Eagles to win and they are matches the Eagles should win if this is actually a top 15 team. Mary Wash still has a lot of work to do as far as getting back to where they were, but this weekend was a large step in the right direction for a program that needed a boost.

Trinity (TX) - Because of their history at this tournament, I didn't expect a ton from the Tigers and I didn't get much. I'll make a few things very clear and I think everyone knows this including them. The Tigers went 5-4 in doubles this weekend. If they continue to play like this, they won't do anything this season and they may not break the top 10. Cory Kowal went 0-6 this weekend. If he can't get wins, they aren't doing anything this season either. As I've stressed several times before, this is a team that gets better as the season progresses and it looks like this season will be the same. A bright spot for the Tigers was freshman Greg Haugen who has 3-0 at the #5 singles spot against 3 very strong opponents. Although he doesn't play doubles, he played a huge role for the Tigers this weekend. I think it's a bit premature for Coach McMindes to mess with his doubles lineup, but he may want to have a second look at his singles lineup, the bottom half in particular. My weekend MVP for the Tigers is sophomore Erick Delafuente who went 5-1 in the weekend including 3-0 in doubles. As shaky as the Tigers doubles was, the 2 team of Frey/Delafuente was incredible, dropping 6 games in 3 matches and cementing themselves as the best 2 team in the country. The #1 team is a completely different team when they are in a dual match versus individual competition and 0-3 is unacceptable for a team that won ITA nationals. They need to find their form if the Tigers want to be a top 8 team this year. The next big match for Trinity will be at the Stag-Hen where they have a tricky opener against Pomona-Pitzer and a probable semifinal date with Emory.

Carnegie Mellon - The positives outweigh the negatives for CMU. They came into this tournament knowing what they had to do and they got the job done. I wasn't sure where the wins would come from, but they stepped up when they needed to against Cal Lu and pushed a definite top 8 team in Cruz. They beat a team ranked ahead of them and should take over the #7 spot in the ITA rankings. The first match was the one they needed so they didn't have to deal with playing teams ranked below them in the consolation. I really can't give them much criticism because they finished in the top half of the tournament. Looking at the negatives, Player To Watch Bobby Mactaggart went 0-6 on the weekend and he will really need to pick up his play if they want to end up with a top seed in their regional. I don't think this team is quite good enough to win if he's not producing wins. They went 3-6 in doubles and from recent memory Coach Girard hasn't gone through a whole season without switching his doubles teams, so I would expect changes within the next month if they continue to lose. Weekend MVP is Duke Miller despite his 2-4 overall record. He got a huge win against Cruz and won the deciding match against Cal Lu versus a player he wasn't expected to beat. CMU needs to rebound quickly because they have a huge match against Kenyon on Saturday on the road. This is a big rivalry and will test CMU to see if they belong on the top 8.

Santa Cruz - Coach Hansen isn't happy unless Cruz takes home first place, so despite having a solid weekend, the Slugs will probably go home thinking about a squandered opportunity. They had a good weekend and it seems as though they patched up their holes nicely from last year. The loss to Wash U was disappointing, but other than that they beat 2 very good teams in tight matches that were both great learning experiences. I think what we do know is that this team needs some serious training if they want to beat CMS this year, who looks to be about the level of Emory. The days of Cruz winning consistent national titles are probably over, but they are certainly still a top 8 teams and potentially a top 5 team. The Slugs played like they always do this weekend, going 5-4 in doubles and showing a ton of heart in all of their singles wins. Weekend MVP for Cruz is definitely Brian Pybas who went 4-2 on the weekend including 3-1 against Trinity and Wash U. Another bright spot for Cruz was their #3 doubles team of Ian Stanley and Eric Rosner who went 3-0 in their matches against 3 solid team and could be in the conversation for best 3 team in the country at the moment. Looking ahead, Cruz hosts Redlands in 3 weeks in what should be a win and then they have a brutal 2 week stretch at the end of March. They will need to be in phenomenal shape to get through all those matches especially since they aren't that deep.

Wash U - A great tournament for the Bears. We weren't sure how they would respond losing 2 key starters and not really bringing in anyone for this year, but they played great tennis start to finish and I was particularly impressed with their doubles. They had a very tricky first round, but I speak time and time again about their discipline and they showed it in all 3 matches. I didn't expect them to be as strong as they were this weekend, but they proved me wrong and showed they could easily end the year in the top 5 and make a 4th straight Final 4 appearance. I don't know if any other team had such a complete team effort throughout the tournament as the Bears ended up going 7-2 in doubles and all 3 spots won at least 2 matches, with the #2 team winning all of their matches. Weekend MVP for the Bears goes to Kareem Farah who went 6-0 on the weekend including 3 dominating doubles performances. I really think the Bears are even at the 4 through 6 spots, so whoever ends up at 6 should be one of the best in the country at his position. That being said, they got wins at 4 against Cruz and NCW, so I wouldn't really call it a weak spot. I know Wash U's focus every year is winning the UAA and beating Emory, and I think they may need a doubles sweep to do it as we saw from Sunday's result. It's certainly not impossible and history is on Wash U's side in this regard. The Bears won't be in D3 action for a month when they travel to Texas to take on Cruz, CMS and Trinity (TX) in what should be an amazing 3 days of tennis.

Emory - This was pretty predictable. The Eagles dropped 5 total points in 3 matches and even though Wash U gave them a scare, they showed they were the best team at this tournament by quite a bit. Pretty much anyone in the country will need to win 5 of 7 matches against the Eagles because with Pottish and Goodwin on their team, it's almost 2-0 before the match starts. Everyone knows you have to get Emory in doubles, and the Eagles doubles was very good but not great this weekend. They were somewhat lucky to not get swept against Wash U and I could see them getting swept by other teams later this spring. If the Eagles can get a point on the board, they are a clear favorite against anyone in the country and I am really looking forward to seeing them take on Amherst and CMS eventually. This 2011 team is very focused and will work very hard to try to bring home their first national title in 5 years. Weekend MVP and tournament MVP is definitely Chris Goodwin who went 6-0 in the weekend, including 2 big wins at #1 doubles against strong teams. After seeing the Eagles results this weekend, I think they are as good as anyone in the country. They won't be tested again until March 10th against Redlands and they will use this as a warm-up for the Stag-Hen when they have a probable semifinal date with Trinity (TX) and a possible final against CMS on the Stags home courts. This will be a real test for Emory and we will see how tough they really are during this California trip.

National Indoors Preview: Quarterfinal #3: #7 Wash U vs. #11 NC Wesleyan

This match reminds me a lot of last year's Indoors first round between Wash U and Hopkins. NCW is a very talented team, maybe more so than Wash U, but the disciplined Bears go about their business quietly and just win matches. Where I think this year's NCW team may have an advantage over last year's Hopkins team is that they have played in a big match. They were intimidated and jittery against Middlebury in the NCAA quarterfinal last year, but they got the experience and now they know how to approach this match. On 2 occasions last year, we saw what Wash U does to teams who aren't ready to play, in the Indoors first round and NCAA quarters. They are very disciplined and well coached, and you know what you are going to get from them. The Bears have been to 2 consecutive Indoors finals for a reason. This is cliche, but this match will be as close as NCW makes it. If they come out fired up and get on the board in doubles, this could turn into a battle, because NCW certainly has the personnel to hang with Wash U in singles. If the Bishops come out scared, Wash U will jump on them early in doubles and this will turn into another 8-1 blowout. Unlike against Hopkins last year, NCW won't be coming back from any 3-0 holes in this match, because when Wash U senses you are down, they turn it on and end the match. The Bishops singles lineup is solid top to bottom, as they have a new freshman at #1, pushing Saari, Rumyantsev and Lemongo back to 2, 3 and 4. The top 3 singles spots should be very even, but NCW's guys will have to play flawless matches to take out Wash U's seniors in their last Indoors. Wash U will most likely be playing sophomores at 3 through 6, but they've all been there before so the experience factor won't be an issue. Doubles is the key to this match as I eluded to above. I don't think NCW will have an answer to Stein/Woods, so they need to focus their efforts on 2 and 3 to at least get 1 point on the board. I think NCW has an outside chance if they can get 1 point, and they are in great shape if they get 2 points. The singles spots are all tough to call, but if there's an opening for NCW, it may be at the 3 and 4 spots, as I believe the Bishops are very strong there. This is a very winnable match for NCW, but I have to go with the more experienced and disciplined Wash U team in a 6-3 win that will be closer than a lot of people think. NCW will need to play a great match to win, but they certainly have the capability to do it.

Saturday Recap: Pawa Saves Chicago's Season and Other Results

Chicago d. Denison 5-4

It took a 7-5 win in the 3rd set of the deciding match for Chicago to beat Denison today, not even 24 hours after the Maroons were dominated by Kenyon. Denison went up 2-1 after doubles, but Chicago was able to use their talent to pull out 4 singles matches. #6 was the only match that went to 3 sets. This kept Chicago's hope for an NCAA At-Large bid alive for the time being. Coach Perry's decision to input Kunal Pawa into the lineup paid off. Despite getting a win, this is far from where Chicago needs to be, as Denison is not a top 20 team. The Maroons have to forget about this trip to Ohio and regroup before they continue with their season.

Auburn-Montgomery d. Emory 5-4

A very good result for Emory as they mixed up their doubles teams, but it didn't pay off. Browning is hoping to get his 3 strongest teams in the lineup for Indoors, but it seems he doesn't know who to go with quite yet. AUM is an excellent team, and it seems Pottish is playing at a ridiculous level in singles right now to get a win like that against a top NAIA player. At the moment, it seems like no one will even come close to Emory next weekend. I'm liking this team more and more and they can take a huge step forward if they manage to get their doubles in order.

Incarnate Word d. Trinity (TX) 5-4

Typical Trinity match. Up 2-1 after doubles and end up losing for the 2nd time in 3 days. They seem to still be toying with their singles lineup a little bit which is fine in these exhibition matches, but they need to get things in order for Friday. It's great that Trinity is playing good doubles, but I've said that they are only as good as their singles. In their last 2 matches, their singles play has stabbed them in the back, so hopefully they can get it in order, because beating Cruz is one of the hardest tasks in D3 tennis.

Point Loma d. Redlands 7-2
Vanguard d. Redlands 6-3

Not too much to say here, as both of these opponents are excellent teams. Decent results for the Bulldogs, but the thing that stuck out to me is that Darren Dahl was dominant at 4 singles in both matches, a wonderful sign for Redlands. Hammond is still missing, and he will definitely strengthen singles and should form a great 2 doubles team with Keven Wong. It's good for Redlands to have these early season tests because they need all the practice they can get.

Wash U d. McKendree 7-2

Follmer also seems to be messing with his lineup, as he mixed and matched doubles teams tonight and only played half his starters in singles. He's going to have to get his strongest singles lineup ready because we know NCW is a very deep team that can punish you in the 4 through 6 spots. Wash U does have the potential to dominate in doubles and this was another good win for them.

CMS Wins, Trinity (TX) & Wash U Compete In Pre-Indoors Matches

CMS d. Westmont 6-3

CMS is impressive. This is a team they lost to 5-4 last year and they turned the tables playing what seems to be only 4 or their 6 normal starters in singles. I would think that Erani and Perezevin would make their way into the singles lineup rather than Ellis and Wu. On the other hand, I would assume this is their full time doubles lineup, and this is where they struggled. The Stags are not untouchable in doubles, and they now know what they need to work on before their difficult stretch in March. Seeing how good their singles lineup is really makes me think that there is a huge gap between the top 3 teams in D3 and everyone else, but out of those top 3, CMS and Emory may be a lot closer to Amherst than I originally thought.

St. Edward's d. Trinity (TX) 5-4

Not quite sure why Trinity (TX) didn't play their full lineup in their season opener against Abilene Christian, but they were full strength in this one. As usual, Trinity got on top in doubles and struggled in singles. Frey lost to a player who he beat the previous year, but the most surprising thing was to see Cocanougher at #3 singles. I'm thinking there could be an injury in play here, as Bobby sat out the first match in both singles and doubles, and now is back at the 3 spot. It's not often that you see an ITA champion playing 3 for his team, but I certainly would not consider it a stack in this instance. It just goes to show to that the Tigers players are very even. On a final note, I would be surprised to see Trinity bench Murray in singles at Indoors in favor of 2 freshmen. Murray has played in big matches and I think you have to go with experience especially when you are dealing with inexperienced players from Cruz.

Wash U d. Southern Indiana 5-4

The Bears were not rock solid in this, but they often don't bring their best stuff for these warm up matches. I have no doubt Wash U will be ready for Indoors next week, but I think this match is a perfect example of what I meant when I said they aren't as good as last year. It's interesting that they were able to take 2 of 3 doubles from a strong Drury team, but dropped 2 of 3 to a team outside the top 30 in D2. While Wash U was certainly not in top form last night, one thing that I can guarantee is that they will be on top form on Friday. A good performance from the top of the lineup by Wash U and this is something that they will need all season. This may be an alarming result to see the Bears struggle, but knowing this team and their coach, they will be more than prepared for Indoors.

2011 Team Preview #14: Wash U

Isaac Stein and Max Woods

Coach: Roger Follmer, 10th Season
Location: St. Louis, Missouri
Conference: UAA
2008 Ranking: 1
2009 Ranking: 4
2010 Ranking: 6
2011 Projected: 7

Their year-end ranking of #6 certainly did not do the 2010 Bears justice. This team was one of the best in the country and gave Middlebury all it could handle in the NCAA semifinal. I don't know how they finished 6 after making the Final 4. To me, this year's Wash U team is a huge question mark. This will be the first year in quite a while that they don't have a true star player, something they took for granted the past 3 years. It was an anomaly for Watts to lose a singles match, and the 2011 Bears don't have that to fall back on, which makes life a lot tougher. This will certainly be a very good team and they are a lock for the top 10, but I don't consider them a true national championship contender given who else is out there. For their standards, they had a bit of a down year recruiting-wise, and this will really hurt them because their team gets significantly weaker. They've got 6 quality starters, but when comparing them to other teams, there are a few spots that are glaring weaknesses, and those don't exist on teams that win national titles. To begin, they've got a top 5 doubles team in the country in Stein/Woods which certainly helps. After that, I'm not sold on their doubles. They've got players, but are they players who can win at #2 doubles against CMS and Trinity? In singles, the #1 spot should be a problem, no matter who is there. I don't consider anyone on their team a top 10 player in D3 this year. They'll be solid at the bottom of the lineup as always, but the middle could be a problem as well, as you will probably see someone who was at 6 or 7 last year in the 4 spot, which is a large jump. All that being said, Follmer is one of the top 5 coaches in the country and his teams always know how to win and step up when it really matters. I think they can do as well as #4 this year if they really play well. They currently hold a streak of 3 consecutive Final Four appearances, which is the longest current streak in the country. The Bears play a very tough schedule, starting with Indoors where they have a very tricky opening round against NC Wesleyan that they should not overlook. They have the quad in Texas with Trinity, Cruz and CMS where they will probably be the weakest team, and they also have a big mid-season date with Chicago before the UAA tournament. Although they always get up to play Emory, I don't see them winning the conference this year. The Bears are a great team and deserve a lot of respect, I just don't think they will be as good as they've been the past 3 years.

Final 8 Recap

I'll start by saying congratulations to Middlebury and their outstanding core of seniors. They deserve it after a great season.

I'll go through each day starting with the morning quarters on Tuesday. From what I've heard, the effort from NCW was not very good. It seemed as though they thought they couldn't win and gave Middlebury too much respect. After Midd swept the doubles, it was over and there's really not much more to say. Midd romped NCW in singles and this match was over in about 2 hours. The experience for Midd paid off in this one. Much like the other morning quarterfinal, one team was experienced and looking to win the tournament while the other one was just happy to make the Final 8. Midd advances to the semis. The other quarterfinal was the same result, just less extreme. I thought CMU would come out with a nothing to lose attitude, and maybe they did, but it backfired as Wash U's experience on this stage paid off and resulted in an easy doubles sweep. Like I said, the last time I picked Wash U to lose, they swept Hopkins in doubles at Indoors 8-4 across the board. The same exact thing happened in this one. The Indoors first round and this match were almost identical. CMU had a great season but they clearly were not ready to play and they couldn't match the intensity of Wash U. The Bears experience just paid off. After the doubles in this one, I thought Wash U may have a shot at Midd if they could keep that dominance in doubles going. The afternoon matches brought two much closer results. The doubles in the CMS-Trinity match was absolutely outstanding and maybe the highest quality doubles matches of the tournament. I wasn't wrong about Trinity's outstanding doubles lineup, but CMS managed to get the 1 very important point that they needed. CMS' dominance in singles was seen pretty quickly as they took first sets at 2 through 6. Trinity mounted a mini comeback when they won 2nd sets at 3 and 4 but wins at 2, 5 and 6 quickly pushed the Stags to a 4-2 lead before MacColl closed to end it. This is what I expected to happened as Trinity came out fired up, but the better team won in the end. CMS advanced to the semis but they had to be questioning their doubles a bit. The last match of the day will go down as the most amazing result in D3 history. Emory sweeps doubles with easy wins at 1 and 3 and a breaker at 2 which was actually a big surprise for me. Let's go over what Amherst was able to do. They were down 3-0. Emory has the best 1 in the country, the best 2 in the country and arguably the best 4 in the country. Pottish hadn't lost a D3 dual match all spring and Goodwin has never lost in a D3 dual match in his two year career. The chances of Amherst winning this were 1 in 100. Emory seems to be well on its way to its 9th straight Final 4. Despite losing 1st sets at 1 and 2 which was a shocker, Emory wins 1st sets at 3, 4 and 6. The report I got was that the heat and humidity were awful Tuesday afternoon. Amherst turned the match in an hour. The took second sets at 1 and 3 through 6. Despite Goodwin winning the second set to even the match, he was getting tired and Kahan looked on his way to an upset win. This is a big surprise for me given the heat in Atlanta. The comeback began with wins at 5, 1 and 2, but Egan won at 4 to force Amherst to win the last 2 matches. Caplan and Gross were late in the 2nd set but Gross got the set to turn the match and he easily took the 3rd. Koenig was so clutch and pulled off the unbelievable upset for Amherst. Emory was the team that had the best chance to beat Midd and I still am wondering what would happen if they won that match. Amherst just seems to always be prepared for the tournament just like last year. They moved on to take on CMS Wednesday.

We now had 4 teams left standing but all 4 knew they would be playing over the next 2 days. With the heat and humidity, there's something in the back of your mind that says save it for the final. This would not be the case as both matches turned out to be marathons. Starting with Midd and Wash U, I think everyone knew that the Bears had to take a lead after doubles to win this match. I knew Watts would win and the Bears had a shot at the bottom of the lineup, but Midd is a little too strong if they have a lead after doubles. 2 and 3 doubles were split quickly and it came down to 1 where Wash U had a match point serving up 8-7 but failed to capitalize and got crushed in the tiebreak. This threw the momentum in Midd's favor but that wouldn't stop the Bears from starting hot in singles. Wash U took 1st sets at 1, 3, 4 and 6 to turn the match in their favor. The first sets from Putterman and Woods were both big surprises to me since Thomson and Olson had both been great all season. Something I haven't mentioned yet is fitness and conditioning. It's something that I rarely discuss but it was certainly a factor during all 3 days of the tournament. Midd took second sets at 1 through 5 in this semifinal and I have to attribute this to superior conditioning. They were able to close at 2 and 5 giving them a 4-1 lead but Wash U was even or leading in all the remaining matches. Watts won as expected and Farah pulled what I would consider an upset at #6 singles to make the score 4-3. Woods hung on for a win but Olson was about to win at #3 to give the match to Midd and he did just that. Looking back, that #1 doubles match could have turned this if Wash U ended up winning. In hindsight, the Bears were only 1 point away from the national championship match for the 2nd time in 3 years. Midd advances in one of their closest matches of the season and they are the favorite in the final no matter who they play. The second semifinal was just an epic match between the underdogs from Amherst and CMS, who was just so hungry to break through and win a national title. The Stags have been to the semis many times but haven't won the title in over 25 years. This was a good chance for them with a very deep team. Both teams trailed in doubles in the their quarterfinal but it was Amherst who was able to jump out to a 2-1 lead with easy wins at 1 and 2. Herst's singles looked dominant the day before so you had to give them the edge heading into singles play. Just like the other semi, CMS comes out and takes 4 first sets to swing the match in their favor. 1, 2 and 5 were all straight sets and after these it was tied 3-3. CMS took a 4-3 lead with a hard fought win at 6 and it came down to 3 and 4. In one of the most amazing comebacks I've seen, Koenig was down 6-1 in the 3rd set breaker. CMS had 5 match points in a row to go to the national championship match and failed to convert. Koenig saved a total of 7 match points and made it 4-4 with an 11-9 win in the breaker. Shortly thereafter, Waterman closed for Amherst to give the Jeffs a 5-4 win and send them to their 2nd national final in as many years. The amazing part of this was that Herst missed the tournament all together in 2008. I don't know which result was more impressive for Herst between the quarters and the semis. An amazing job by Garner and by the team.

Just a quick note on the 3rd-4th match, impressive win by CMS. Every year this is a hard match to play after falling short of your goal of making the finals. Especially in the fashion CMS lost the day before, a very good win for their program. They were probably more ready to play than Wash U. The Bears had come so close the day before against the team that was supposed to be unbeatable and they seemed a little flat in doubles with the exception of the #2 position. The Stags were strong as always but I don't know when they are finally going to get over the hump and win a title. There will always be that cloud hanging over them until they do it and I can't wait to see them fight it out with Cruz again next year. Wash U had a great season but I would say they didn't quite live up to expectations. The semifinal was their season in a nutshell as they had 3 great opportunities and went 0 for 3 in their biggest matches of the season. The Watts loss will really hurt but this is still a young team who will be a contender for many years to come. There's not a ton to discuss when it comes to the final. Midd dominated start to finish and singles was an absolute blowout. I was surprised at the quality of Midd's 2 doubles team throughout the tournament and I give co-MVP honors to Lee, Olson and Jia. I don't know if I can pick 1 because they were all so tough throughout. After about 30 minutes of singles play, this wasn't a match. Amherst needed that lead after doubles but the freshmen Kahan and Sorrell both hit some rough patches and Midd took control with their experience. After doubles, despite the comeback on Day 1, the outcome wasn't really in doubt. A shame for Amherst getting crushed 2 years in a row for the final, but I have them as a huge favorite to win the title next year. Midd was the best team this year. They are probably the best team we've seen since the 2007 Cruz team and they deserved this win. They were only threatened twice during the season, but it's tough to lose when you have 5 great seniors. An unbelievable season for the Panthers and they bring home their 2nd national title of the decade.

Wash U-Carnegie Mellon Preview

Most years, this is a no brainer and Wash U cleans up easily. This year, it's the complete opposite of that. I think it's the hardest quarterfinal to predict actually just because I believe 8 of the 9 matches can really go either way. Watts should get a point for his team, but other than that it's tough. Wash U was my preseason pick to win the whole thing, but after Indoors their results haven't been spectacular. I'd be a lot more inclined to pick Wash U in this if they didn't just lose 2 of 3 doubles to Kalamazoo, who's been getting crushed in doubles in the late part of the season. CMU lost 6 total games to Kalamazoo in doubles when they played this season. The Bears won a close one against Kenyon and lost to Emory in the UAA final. They just haven't been what I expected them to be this season and I'm questioning if they can win this match. CMU on the other hand, has put together a solid resume. Post-Indoors, their only losses are to CMS and Emory and they have wins against Trinity (TX), Kenyon, Hopkins and several others. They should go into this match with nothing to lose, because after all the pressure is on Wash U. The results of these two teams haven't been all that different this year and I just feel like an upset is coming. I question Wash U right now whereas CMU has been nothing but solid since February.

Both teams have been so streaky in doubles this year. All 3 of the doubles really can go either way so they are so difficult to pick. It depends who comes out more ready to play and more fired up. The advantage for Wash U is they've played on this stage, but at the same time the pressure is on them to win this. I'm going with CMU to take 2 of the 3 doubles and I doubt one of the teams will pull off a sweep so this will go down to the wire in singles. Watts should win and I think Wash U could have an edge at 4 as well. CMU probably has an edge at 3. The rest of the spots can really go either way. Both teams have some streaky players so a lot depends upon who's playing their best tennis. I'm taking CMU in an incredibly close match, but Wash U has the potential to come out and end it quickly. These two teams are very even so I expect a 5-3 or 5-4 no matter who wins.

Regional Preview: Wash U

The question here is which Kalamazoo will show up this weekend. In their early season form, they beat DePauw and Chicago 7-2 as well as playing a tough 6-3 against Kenyon. In late season, Zoo lost 2 of 3 doubles to Gustavus, lost 5-2 against DePauw as well as losing to Salisbury. Unfortunately for Kalamazoo, they will have to work very hard to get the the regional final to take on Wash U. Luther is the 3 seed in this region and this is a very good and experienced team that made the Sweet 16 last year and upset UT-Tyler in the round of 32, which would be similar to pulling an upset this year. I think Kzoo probably has a little too much talent in singles for Luther so the Norse will have to take the lead with strong doubles play if they want to win the match. I think if this match goes down to the wire you have to like Luther because of their experience on this stage. I think Kalamazoo will win easily or Luther will win if it gets close. This is a hard match to predict but I'm going with Luther in a 5-3 upset that comes down to a couple 3rd sets.

The Wash U Bears are the top seed in this region and they have a bitter taste in their mouth after losing the UAA final against rival Emory. Wash U is hosting this regional and should run through whoever makes it to the final. Even if Kzoo wins against Luther and brings their best stuff for the regional final, I'm still take Wash U in a 5-0 rout. The Bears are a little too strong for the the next two seeds in this region and they should find themselves in the Final 8 fairly comfortably.

Weekend Preview: May 1-2

A quick note before the weekend preview is a match I actually didn't make a note about and I didn't have on the calendar. Must have missed it when I was putting in all the matches pre-season. Williams traveled to Hartford to take on Trinity (CT). This was the last chance for the Bantams in the regular season to prove that they belong in the tournament. This was one of the closest matches of the year. The box score is here. I don't know if I've ever seen a match where the winner of the first set ended up losing the match in 5 of 6 singles matches. This match really came down to the wire and this was quite close to being a 6-3 victory for Trinity (CT). In the same breath Williams probably could have won 8-1 just as easily. The bottom line is that Bowdoin will meet Trinity (CT) in the first round of the NESCAC tournament next weekend. To make the tournament, I see Trinity needing not just 1, but 2 wins, and that would include beating Middlebury. Bowdoin has out of conference wins against Redlands and Salisbury and Trinity (CT) can only boast a win over Pomona-Pitzer. With this result on Wednesday, I think Bowdoin has all but locked up the 6th spot in Pool C for the tournament and Trinity will be left out for the 2nd year in a row.

Washington & Lee @ Carnegie Mellon

Despite the fact that this is #8 versus #25 in the country, I think it could be close. CMU has been so up and down in doubles so anything can happen. Carnegie can lock up a #1 seed and hosting for NCAAs and at the same time I don't really think W&L could benefit even if they end up winning. Doubles is so unpredictable but I'll give CMU a 2-1 lead heading into singles. The Generals will have a hard time keeping up in the bottom of the lineup and I don't see how they can possibly get anymore than 3 singles wins. I think 1 or 2 singles wins is actually more realistic. The only real chance for the Generals here is to sweep the doubles and that hasn't happened to CMU all season. I'll take CMU in a somewhat close 7-2 tomorrow to give them confidence heading into NCAAs. The Generals did what they needed to do and should be pleased with their season after taking back the conference title.

DePauw @ Wash U

The Tigers should be playing with a lot of desperation in this match. They lost their conference, but a huge upset would probably catapult them into the tournament through Pool C. That being said, I just don't know if there are 5 wins for DePauw in this match. The Tigers would somehow have to get up after doubles and although unlikely, this is possible. DePauw nearly swept Emory in doubles at the Indoors so the potential is there but they would need to play 3 perfect doubles matches. Even if this happens, I still think it would take a big effort to get 2 singles wins. They are the underdog at every spot in the lineup. I think they have an outside chance to win at 2, 3 and 6 and after those the Bears should dominate. I'm taking Wash U 7-2. I think the Bears may be playing with a chip on their shoulder after moving from 2 to 7 in the national rankings. I suspect DePauw will get a singles win and a doubles win. A tough season for the Tigers and they will miss the tournament for this first time in several years.

Middlebury @ Williams

Williams is one of the few teams in the country who I believe can play with Midd in the bottom of the lineup. Where Williams will fall short is Midd's strength - the top 4 spots. I think the Panthers will come out and dominate there top 4 spots and the only place where I'd say Williams has a chance is probably 2. Williams hasn't been good in doubles this year and this is where you need to get Middlebury if you want to stay in the match heading into singles. Results point to this being a blowout and I'm not going to argue otherwise. Midd just has too much firepower at the top of the lineup and I'll take them in a 7-2 victory. Williams played close with Trinity just a few days ago so they have a lot of work to do if they want to qualify for the final 8 this year.

Middlebury @ Amherst

#1 vs #2 in the NESCAC and finally Amherst has moved into the top 5 in the country after being out of the top 10 for a bit. The Jeffs are playing to their potential and they seem to have found the form that got them to the national championship match last year. The one thing I'm still not sold on is Amherst's doubles. They miss Jung in the #3 spot a lot I think. At the same time, they could have arguably the best #2 doubles team in the country in Kahan/Koenig. Amherst has to play a pretty perfect match to win against Middlebury and their 5 and 6 guys really need to step up. 3 and 4 singles are pretty much a lost cause for Herst. I think they will get either 1 or 2 and 2 doubles. That means they need to find 3 points within the other 2 doubles spots and 5 and 6 singles. I just don't think they can pull it off. Herst will be pumped up on their homecourts with a nice crowd, but I think Midd will be too much. 6-3 Middlebury.

Weekend Recap: April 23-25

UAA Champion Emory Eagles

A couple big results of note on Friday. The match that was scheduled for Sunday between Amherst and Trinity (CT) was moved until Friday due to poor weather being forecasted. Amherst was the favorite here but as I've stated over and over Trinity needs to make something happen if they want to make the tournament. Trinity had an opportunity but slipped as they lost a tiebreaker at 3 doubles to give Amherst the momentum going into singles. The Jeffs were too strong and came away with 4 easy singles wins to wrap up the match. Amherst has their chance at Middlebury next weekend so we will see if they can make some magic happen. It would be a big win for Amherst because as of now they are in line to play CMS or Wash U in the NCAA quarterfinals. Moving on, a very surprising result happened in the first round of the UAA tournament. Although Brandeis had some decent results earlier this season, they had just lost to 26th ranked MIT so I didn't consider them a real threat to the Maroons. Chicago jumped out to a lead after doubles and looked like they would run away with the match. Chicago's 1 William Zhang was unable to play and this pushed everyone up a spot for Chicago. This was bad news for Chicago and a 3rd set tiebreak win at #2 singles would prove to be the difference and give Brandeis the win. A tough end to a pretty good season for Chicago and they will miss the tournament once again after underachieving for the 3rd year in a row. A great win for a Brandeis program that looks to be on the rise. The biggest match of the day was the CAC final as Salisbury took on Mary Wash. Although the singles were highly contested, I was pretty sure Mary Wash would win after they took 2 of 3 doubles. They were playing without one of their best players and still managed to win. They just deserve to be in the tournament more than Salisbury. Look at the top 2 singles spots. You have freshman for UMW against senior for Salisbury and UMW takes both spots. Great stuff from the Eagles but Salisbury can't expect to win against good teams turning in performances like that. The Eagles win their 11th conference title in a row.

Three pretty big matches on Saturday with the first being a regular season NESCAC match between Bowdoin and Williams. I expected a competitive match but with Williams at home and needing a win, the outcome was not as I expected. Bowdoin isn't deep enough to play with Williams in singles or doubles and this showed as Williams won comfortably. The outcome was never in doubt. Willams partially solved their doubles woes in this match but their 2 and 3 teams need to keep up the good play. I don't think they have a combination that is effective at 1 and this could hurt them down the road. They've put themselves in good position to make the tournament after this win and probably will enter the NESCAC tournament as the #3 seed. The SCAC semifinal between DePauw and Rhodes I thought was a potential danger match for the Tigers. Rhodes struggled this season in doubles and that continued as DePauw got the doubles sweep. They still had to battle to win the match but chances were good that DePauw would win. In D3, you can't win if you're not winning in doubles and this is where Rhodes fell short all season. DePauw was tested but advanced to the championship to face Trinity (TX). The final match of the day was a top 10 clash between Emory and Carnegie Mellon. The doubles was closely contested but Emory took an expected 2-1 lead. I think CMU needed to get up in doubles if they wanted to win because of Emory's 2 big guns at the top of the singles lineup. Emory closed with 3 quick wins in singles and showed that they are playing well at the end of the season as always. This was stopped at 5-1 but I'm guessing it was probably headed for a 7-2. A dominant performance by Emory and they would face Wash U in a much anticipated final.

3 conference finals took place on Sunday and I'll run through each of the results.

ODAC

Washington & Lee entered the conference tournament in very unfamiliar territory: as the #2 seed and the underdog. The good news for the Generals is that they hosted the match and this was a big advantage for them. HSC played tough doubles and took a much needed 2-1 lead with wins at 1 and 2. In their regular season match, it was 2 wins in the bottom of the singles lineup that propelled HSC to a win. It looked like they only needed one of those this time around. For me, the turning point in this match was the victory for Hayden White at #1 singles. Moss is the heart of the HSC team and it's tough to watch your best player lose to a guy he's beaten twice this year. This win at the top of the lineup put W&L in control of the match and a comeback win at 4 singles all but sealed it for the Generals. They were dominant at both 5 and 6 and were able to win the match despite a loss at #2 singles. W&L brought the ODAC title back to Lexington and will be headed to the NCAA tournament. I think the better team won in this match and the Generals deserve the title.

SCAC

The UAA final was obviously a nerve-racking experience for both teams but I couldn't imagine something tougher than having to play with your season on the line against your biggest rival. The ODAC final also had this, but DePauw and Trinity (TX) are two teams that are so used to success, it's hard to think one of them won't be playing in the NCAA tournament. DePauw had a streak of 3 straight conference titles and last year DePauw knocked Trinity out of the NCAA tournament for the first time in many years. Trinity was out for revenge this year and they found it with some amazing doubles play. They surrendered only 11 games in a doubles sweep to put themselves in complete control of the match. DePauw looked like they would fight back and took the next 3 matches, but after being swept in doubles it's very difficult to complete the comeback. Trinity showed a lot of resiliency and got a 3 set win at 4th singles to seal the match. This win has to feel great for Trinity as they finally took back the conference title. DePauw has one last chance to qualify for the tournament but it would take a win over Wash U next weekend on the road. A great college match which will send Trinity (TX) back to the NCAA tournament.

UAA

In Wash U's last two victories over Emory they have swept the doubles and barely held on for a win. The way Emory has been playing, I felt the Bears may need another doubles sweep if they wanted to win. Pottish just owns Watts right now and Goodwin is untouchable at 2 singles. This is a huge advantage for Emory because Wash U basically needs to win 5 out of 7 matches and that's just not possible against a team as good as Emory. Emory got a shocking win at 1st doubles, which was the spot they lost the previous day. When Emory got the win at 3 doubles, you knew things weren't looking good for Wash U. Emory made the score 4-1 with quick wins at the top and Wash U closed the gap with a win at 3. All eyes turned to #4 singles, but Egan was able to complete a great comeback and win 7-5 in the 3rd to give Emory the UAA title after a one year hiatus. Emory also captured first sets at 5 and 6 singles so this match looked to be well on it's way to a 7-2 final score. A dominant performance from Emory and you could tell they really wanted this win. Wash U needs to regroup and get ready for DePauw this weekend. They hope to turn in a dominant performance before heading to NCAAs.

A Crucial Weekend

To date, I think this is the most important three day stretch of matches this season. Indoors has blockbuster matches, but this weekend has blockbuster matches as well as seasons on the line. There are 4 automatic bids to the tournament from major conferences on the line as well as two huge NESCAC clashes. We are also going to have two matches take place between top 7 teams. This is going to be a great weekend so let's take a look at the action.

I've had this match circled on my calendar since the beginning of the season and it's finally here. The CAC final between Salisbury and Mary Washington. Mary Wash holds a streak of 10 consecutive conference titles but this is probably the closest these two teams have ever been in both ability and ranking. The Eagles have had a terrible year but the one bright spot for them was a 7-2 win 3 weeks ago against Salisbury which knocked the Sea Gulls out of the top 20. Mary Washington is hosting this match but I'm sure both teams will be ready to play. After looking at the results from the last match, Salisbury knows where they need to improve. If Mary Wash can get ahead in doubles, I think they can cruise to victory. If Salisbury is up, I see this match coming down to the wire because another singles sweep by the Eagles is very unlikely. It's simple for both teams. Win and you go to the tournament or lose and your season is over. Live stats for the match will be at http://www.umweagles.com/sports/2010/4/23/MTEN_0423103939.aspx

Next on our list is a match taking place only a few hours away in Lexington, VA and it's a very similar situation. The season of both teams is on the line. Washington & Lee had a streak of 13 consecutive ODAC finals broken last year by their opponent, Hampden-Sydney. HSC is a pretty average team, but when they play W&L they become a much better team simply because of the rivalry. Whenever HSC plays a top 25 team they get trounced, but they always come to play against W&L and that's why this match will be great. Both teams have a natural dislike for the other and all of their matches come down to the wire. HSC should have 3 wins but they need to find those other 2 from the bottom of their singles lineup. I think W&L will manage to pull it out but this will be close as always.

Two NESCAC matches that I've had my eye on will be taking place this weekend. Home court traditionally helps a lot in NESCAC and both underdogs have the home court this weekend. On Saturday, #12 Williams looks to get their first quality win of the season against #13 Bowdoin. Bowdoin got crushed by Midd last weekend so they will be looking to rebound. This is close to do-or-die time for the Ephs as they need to start producing if they want to make the NCAA Tournament this year. Not making the tournament is unheard of for Williams tennis and unacceptable for a program filled with prized recruits. Bowdoin stands at 13 in the country and they've been doing good work all season without their star player and defending NCAA doubles finalist Oscar Pena. I think a win on Saturday would lock up the #5 spot in Pool C for Bowdoin. They would also avoid a 4-5 match in the first round of the NESCAC tournament. The second match takes place on Sunday with #8 Amherst traveling to take on Trinity (CT). Much like Williams, Trinity is in desperate need of a win and they will need to play their best tennis if they want to beat the Jeffs. Amherst is fresh off a 7-2 rout of Williams and Trinity hasn't done anything special this year. I think Trinity will come close but the Jeffs will be a little too deep. I'm going with the traditional powerhouses in both of these and taking Williams and Amherst to win.

In Arkansas, we have the SCAC tournament taking place and everyone has their eye on the potential final between #14 Trinity (TX) and #16 DePauw. Before we get to the final, DePauw will have to get past a tough Rhodes team, who's a real sleeper this year. I think Rhodes will challenge them, but DePauw should come out victorious. They have to be fresh for the biggest match of their season on Sunday so an extended match against Rhodes is not what they want. Despite some losses, I've been big on Trinity all season and I still am. This is a good and complete team. The thing that worries me about Trinity is that they haven't really been tested in over a month. Rhodes is a good team and a good win, but they aren't the quality of DePauw. On the other hand, DePauw is pretty fresh off the GLCA tournament where they battled Kenyon and Kalamazoo. I would expect DePauw to be more in form but I don't know if this is enough to trump Trinity's advantage in talent. Trinity is desperate to take back the conference title after DePauw has won it 3 consecutive years and I predict that Trinity will do just that this weekend.

The biggest event of the weekend will be the UAA tournament taking place in Pittsburgh. One can make an argument that the UAA is the strongest conference in the country this year with 3 teams in the top 7 in the country this year and a 4th at #15. The first semifinal on Saturday should have #2 Wash U playing against #15 Chicago. The Maroons gave Wash U all they could handle in an early season match but came up just short of what would have been the biggest win in the history of their program. Chicago has another chance to pull the upset but they won't have the element of surprise this time. The Bears have been playing well lately and Chicago hasn't seen any tough opponents in a while. I think Wash U should win in a convincing 8-1 or 7-2 victory. The other semifinal has #3 Emory taking on host and #7 Carnegie Mellon. CMU has been a pleasant surprise this year and many don't believe Emory is deserving of their #3 ranking. CMU matches up fairly well against the Eagles since depth is their strength and the Eagles weakness. I think CMU has the potential to take 3 of the singles, but that would mean they need to come up with 2 big wins in doubles. My guess is that Emory will win a close 6-3, but if CMU can jump on top in doubles this could get interesting. I'll have finals and 3-4 predictions on Saturday after the matches are set.

Weekly Thoughts March 8-12

The week kicked off with UT-Tyler starting their season against a Pomona-Pitzer team that was fresh off a huge win against Mary Washington. The Hens were able to hang on for a 5-4 win in what was a very tight match. UT-Tyler got absolutely destroyed by Cal Lutheran later in the week, and this was the Kingsmen's only big match this week. I get the following info from these results. I think Pomona-Pitzer's win against Mary Wash was a bit of a fluke and my guess would be that they were pumped up on their home courts in doubles and the Eagles weren't adjusted to outdoor tennis. Mary Wash beat Redlands who went on to beat Trinity (TX) so I think the Eagles will be on the border of the top 20. Pomona-Pitzer probably sits between 20 and 25. UT-Tyler is a 25-30 team and they are slightly worse than Pomona-Pitzer. Cal Lutheran is looking very strong and I'm really look forward to their match with Trinity (TX) on Monday.

Carnegie Mellon had 3 big matches this week and they did well in my opinion. They dropped 2 of the doubles to Redlands but came back to take the match after dominating singles. Their second match was a loss to CMS. I was expecting a bit of a down year for the Stags this year but this certainly proved to be incorrect after two very impressive results from this week. The Stags are a national championship contender in my mind and these two results alone have made a believer out of me. It's just unfortunate they won't be hosting nationals again. In a match that i was really looking forward to, CMU beat Trinity (TX) 5-4. We don't have a box score at the moment but I'm sure it came down to the wire. These are two evenly matched teams but I think CMU proved they belong in the top 10 in the country.

Trinity (TX) didn't pass their first 3 tests, but they still have 2 more opportunities to redeem themselves. They got crushed by CMS and I am attributing their Redlands loss to just being tired after two difficult matches. I think they are a better team than Redlands but this could certainly hurt Trinity (TX)'s NCAA chances. Both of the SCAC big fish have had tough losses in the past week and we could see both of them out of the top 15 in the rankings. Trinity (TX) desperately needs a win against Cal Lu or Bowdoin to get their confidence back and more importantly stay alive Pool C.

In the only match of the week between top 10 teams, Wash U edged Kenyon 5-4. Apparently, the singles were played first and #1 doubles was ultimately the decider in the match. This was a very close contest and what i get from this result is Kenyon could potentially be a top 5 team. They can beat anyone on any given day. I was disappointed to see the wash U-NC Wesleyan match cancelled. We have to wait a bit longer to see how strong NCW is.

Wash U vs. Kenyon Pre-Match Thoughts

At first glance I want to say the Bears will win this one easily but it's hard to know about a neutral site at 8am. Anything can happen. Looking at the doubles, I think Wash U has a clear advantage at 1. 2 and 3 are both questionable. I think if Kenyon wants to have any chance they need both of these spots. Kenyon needs to take a lead into singles play. 2 years ago, a Watts-Greenberg match at 1 would be much anticipated but I definitely think Watts should win easily. I like Piskacek over Stein at #2. Putterman and Woods should be able to win at 3 and 4 for Wash U. 2 is a match between freshmen and it's a tough call but I like Burgin after his performance at Indoors. 6 is a huge spot but I'm going to take Levy. Like I said a lot depends on doubles, but I'm going to take Wash U in a 6-3 win. This should show Kenyon they need to improve and Wash U should definitely benefit from a win.

Team By Team Discussion from Indoors and Other Weekend Thoughts

Gustavus Adolphus - The Gusties did about as well as they could this weekend. If you told me they would get 5 points over 3 matches, I may not have believed you. I thought it would be more like 2 or 3. I think this is encouraging for them going forward when it comes to winning the conference. With a homecourt advantage I think they could sweep doubles against Carleton and also manage to find 2 singles wins. Gustavus could finish the year in the top 20 but they have work to do.

DePauw - The Tigers played great against Emory and wilted a bit after that loss. I expected them to take 2 of the doubles against Hopkins and when they didn't do that they were done. They have a huge weekend next weekend and we will really see what they are made of. They could get a really nice jump towards an Pool C NCAA Bid if they can knock off both Chicago and Kzoo on their homecourts. If I'm the Tigers I'm pretty happy with my weekend because we saw flashes of brilliance from them on Day 1.

Carnegie Mellon - I should have mentioned the word volatility in their season preview. I thought CMU would be a new team after their Fall Amherst win but they were the same old team this weekend. They let Cruz off the hook and weren't nearly as close as I thought they would be against Hopkins. They need to watch out for a tricky CNU team next Tuesday. Also, we will see what they learned from this weekend when they go to Cali. 3 top 15 teams out there. 0 wins = very overrated, 1 win = their typical 12-15 season, 2 wins = potential Elite 8 contender, All 3 wins = national championship contender. I'm not sure if that near upset of Cruz was a fluke or not.

Johns Hopkins - Yes they went 2-1, but the Day 1 match is the one they really needed for their confidence. They beat 2 good teams on Day 2, but they are also better than those teams. They have a month of down time from D3 play and their next match is against a very dangerous NCW team. This is a must win for Hopkins. I expected a lot more from them at the 3 through 5 singles positions. This is supposed to be their strength and the wins weren't coming. They need to start winning at these spots if they want to make a national title run. Doubles has room for improvement but they got better as the weekend progressed.

Kenyon - Maybe the most disappointed team after this weekend. A good showing against GAC, the doubles loss is expected against the fired up Gusties. The Cruz match is the one I thought they would run through. Their seniors let them down and this is the core of their team. If they are down 2-1 in doubles, their top 2 need to win or they are done. They just don't have the depth to match the other top 5 teams in my eyes. I still think this team can win a national title, I just expected a Finals appearance from them this weekend and they didn't produce.

Emory - Overall, a pretty shaky tournament from the Eagles. They could have lost to DePauw, but used their experience to grind through that one. The Eagles are always a national championship contender no matter what happens in the early portion of their season. They lost to their heated rival, but bounced back nicely against Kenyon. The good thing about this weekend from Emory is they will see all 3 of these teams again during their season so they will find out how they've progressed a team. I'm still searching for an update on Lopp because I think he can make a huge difference.

Wash U - An amazing first 2 days from the Bears followed by a poor finals performance. They were just flawless on Day 1 crushing a potential top 5 opponent and then followed it up by beating a very good Emory team with a doubles sweep and some good singles play by the bottom of their lineup. They showed they have the depth to compliment Watts at the top of the lineup. They play Kenyon in 3 weeks so we'll see if they learned from the Cruz match. I was expecting them to roll through the finals but it goes to show that even the top teams still need work.

Cruz - What can we say about these guys besides what a performance. They won 3 matches which they should have lost and took home another Indoor title. They funny thing is if they played Wash U every day for the next 10 days at a neutral site, I'll take the Bears in 8 of those. Just an amazing coaching job by Hansen and unbelievable leadership by Pybas and Vartabedian taking the team on their shoulders and leading them in all 3 matches. Even though they won the whole thing, as Hansen said in the match recap, a lot of work still needs to be done before they can defend their national title. A great 3 day performance, but I'm not a believer yet.

Besides the final of Indoors, the most surprising result for me is Kzoo over Chicago. The first thing that pops into my head is it's not even March and Chicago is already in a huge hole for NCAAs. Pool C is too deep to have losses like this, even if Kzoo ends up being a top 20 team. Chicago needs to rebound and beat DePauw next weekend or they can basically count themselves out of the tournament already. How do you go from losing 5-4 to the Indoors finalists to losing 7-2 to a team outside the top 20? I give Kzoo credit. They played a decent match against Kenyon and this match showed they are making great strides as they won every match easily. This is a top 20 team to me after this weekend and they could pull an upset this year when we are least expecting it.

CMS lost to an NAIA team 5-4. That same NAIA team was beaten by Cruz 8-1. This worries me a little bit. CMS isn't getting production from the middle of their lineup. They need to step up given the depth in the top 10 this year.

Cal Lu is a team to watch, as is CNU. Both have started well this season and both have top 20 potential if all their players play well. CLU got a good start with a win against Pomona-Pitzer on the road, winning 5 singles matches. CNU has been playing mostly D1 teams and they have a match that I'm really looking forward to this Sunday against Vassar.

Indoors Recap and Thoughts

Since Gustavus was doing live stats and everyone was following, I decided to save my recap for the tournament and thoughts for after. Bear with me because this will be a pretty extensive post.

I'll start with Day 1. You all read my predictions so I had some idea of what I thought would happen. The first two matches were shockers to me, particularly in doubles. We have Wash U come out and destroy Hopkins with 8-4 across the board. I attribute part of this to Hopkins not playing a match before Indoors and the other part is the Bears just being ready to play after their rough weekend last weekend. I expected more out of Hopkins 2 team this weekend because this is a huge spot. Maldow/Wang won't win enough carry Hopkins in doubles and I believe their 3 team of doubles specialists could be broken down by two very good singles players. Wash U jumped to the early lead and the match wasn't really in doubt. Watts made a statement at 1 and 2 and 3 were close as expected with Wash U winning both to win the match. The bottom of the lineup was also a surprise. I expected Hopkins to be much more competitive at 4 and 5 and I think these are two very important spots for them going forward. The Bears were my favorite to win the tournament after Day 1. Emory took my advice and split up Goodwin and Pottish. This ended up backfiring for the Eagles and they found themselves almost down 3-0 in doubles. The absence of Lopp really hurts the Eagles in singles and doubles so when he is back Emory will be a much better team. Emory took top 2 as expected and managed to get a tough win at 4 to take the lead. Redmond clinched the match for the Eagles at 6. I think we knew that DePauw needed the doubles sweep if they were going to win. The afternoon matches brought what I expect was a large Gustie crowd to the Swanson Tennis Center creating an intense atmosphere. Gustavus used the crowd to hang with Kenyon in doubles and almost managed to come out on top 2-1 after the doubles. Like I expected, the good news ended there for Gustavus as Kenyon swept singles. We knew this would happen, Gustavus was just overmatched at this tournament by the other 7 teams. The other match was more interesting. #3 doubles was a huge spot for Cruz this weekend and I don't think many people realized that. This was supposed to be an iffy spot for the Slugs and they won handily on Friday giving the Slugs a 2-1 lead. CMU looked like they were coming back after taking first sets at 1 and 4. The Slugs always fight though and came back at both spots to wrap up the match 5-1 before CMU would win the final 3 matches which are pretty irrelevant in my opinion. It's 5-4 on the scoreboard but I don't think things were all that close. Looking back, CMU won 4 first sets in singles and they just weren't able to finish. I wasn't all that impressed with Cruz even though they got the first win.

The morning of Day 2 brought 2 results which were expected and don't need to be discussed all that much. Hopkins had a fairly routine win over DePauw, it was never really close and CMU destroyed the Gusties in doubles and this was never really close either. Without the crowd's energy, GAC wasn't able to produce the same level and only won 8 games in 3 matches. CMU won 5 of the singles as expected. Hopkins also had a good singles performance, but losses at 5 and 6 had to be alarming for them. The afternoon was where the real action was. Wash U came out firing again and won all 3 doubles. Emory mixed up their doubles teams putting their all-star combo back at 1, but this just didn't work out for them. The Bears were able to take a 3-0 lead and we thought Watts would be an automatic win at #1 so I was pretty sure the Bears would cruise in singles. About 90 mins later, Emory looked like they could win this match. They got a masterful performance from Pottish, and Egan redeemed himself after a poor Day 1 showing to make things 3-2. Here is the turning point. If Emory completes their comeback at #5, I think they win this match, but they weren't able to do so. Two freshmen were battling and Parizher came out on top to put the Bears in excellent position needing only 1 of the remaining 3 matches. Levy was able to clinch the win and send the Bears to the finals. I'll address doubles sweeps later in this post because I have some commentary on it. I think Wash U is the better team and I'm anxious to see these two play again after they both have a chance to mature as teams and particularly after Emory gets Lopp back. Going into the second semifinal, I thought the Lords would have no trouble with the Slugs. Hansen just works magic and gets his guys ready to go. They ran through 1 and 3 dubs. I actually expected the Slugs to win both of these spots but not with the ease that they did. Kenyon kept themselves in it with an expected win at 2 from what I still think is their best team, and should be their #1 team. Burgin looks to be one of the best freshmen in the country and he tied things up 2-2 at #5. The two huge matches that allowed the Slugs to win this match were 1 and 2. If I'm a betting man, I don't think Greenberg and Piskacek both lose. After winning those top two spots, the Slugs were in control. My hat goes off to Vartabedian for easily handling Piskacek. Clearly the MVP of the tournament in my eyes. The Slugs were able to get their 5th win and wrap up the match for their 2nd upset in as many days. Yes they were the #1 seed, but if you get right down to it, I don't think they were as talented as CMU or Kenyon, yet they managed to get wins in both. The night matches were both as expected for me. DePauw rested some guys but they were still able to beat Gustavus 6-3. This was the most competitive match of the tournament got GAC and it has to be tough for them to take 8th at their own tournament. I think it will be a long spring for Gustavus and possibly a short career for Valentini if he doesn't turn things around with the tradition that this program carries. DePauw played two good matches in their first two, so they got a much deserved win. They are a team that I wouldn't want to see later in the season. #3 doubles was the huge spot in the CMU-Hopkins battle. CMU needed to be up 2-1 if they wanted to win and they couldn't do so. Hopkins won at the top 2 spots as expected and after this we knew they would get at least 1 of the bottom 4. I'm looking forward to a match between these two later in the season, but I think Hopkins is the better team. I think they are both deserving of their top 10 rankings at this point and both have the potential to improve.

Day 3 brought two intriguing matches. In the 3rd-4th, I expected a pretty routine win from Emory and that's what happened. Kenyon matches up very poorly against Emory and after the doubles sweep, we knew things were over. The Lords really weren't close at any position. I think some team switching could be in order for the Lords and I expect to see some different doubles teams their next time out because what they are doing now just isn't working. Emory rebounded nicely from the day before. They got two good wins from the best 1-2 punch in the country to seal the match. This result was as expected. I was so sure that Wash U was going to destroy Cruz, and the opposite happens. UCSC played magnificent doubles, surrendering 11 games in 3 matches. Even after the doubles sweep, I still thought Wash U would win. If they could survive the top of the lineup and get 2 of 3 in the top 3 spots I thought the Bears would be well on their way to victory. Watts did his part making the score 3-1. Koening just came up huge for the Slugs and won another battle between freshmen to give the Slugs a 4-1 lead and put the match in the hands of Vartabedian. I want him on the court if I'm Bob Hansen after all the great things he has done. Vartabedian didn't disappoint and gave the Slugs their 3rd upset win and the National Indoor title.

I'm going to do a team by team discussion in the next few days but for now I just have some general thoughts. I don't know how else to say this, but I think the 9 point system has to be re-evaluated. 1 dubs is ahead, 2 dubs gets a fluke break and 3 dubs get a huge momentum burst. Boom, the match is over, don't even bother playing singles. Things can be decided in 10-15 minutes and I don't think it's fair. These teams are so evenly matched that it is so rare that a team will come out and win 5 singles matches. Mentally, it's nearly impossible to come out of an 0-3 hole.

I think we are in for another 2008 where anyone can beat anyone else. I got pretty much no feedback from the results this weekend about who's strong and who's not because they just didn't make any sense. Yes, Cruz won the tournament but on paper they are probably the 8th or 9th best team in the country. If the tournament is played again next weekend, they can easily lose 1st round. If you want my best teams in the country after this weekend, the answer is Middlebury and Amherst. Not that I wasn't impressed with the 8 teams this weekend, but there is no one that stood out, even Cruz. I think any of the top 5 finishers, and maybe even CMU, could have won the tournament. There is a lot of tennis left to be played and I think we are in for a very unpredictable and crazy season if this weekend is any indicator.

National Indoors Preview: #3 Wash U vs. #6 Johns Hopkins

Definitely the best first round match and I think this could end up being one of the best first rounds in history when we look back on the season and the accomplishments of both teams. I am less impressed with the Bears than I was in pre-season after they struggled with Chicago. Hopkins has yet to play a match so I consider this a disadvantage. I thought Hopkins was going to change their doubles teams for the spring, but it seems that isn't the case. I'm taking Woods and Stein at #1 for Wash U, and I think Barnaby/Blythe will beat Farah/Watts at #2 doubles, but this could be a big swing match. I'm shocked that Hopkins decided to remove Elgort/Hersh from the 3 spot and instead have two doubles players there. Wash U looked very weak at #3 doubles and I consider this a huge swing spot as well. I'm going to give the edge to Hopkins, but it could go either way. Watts will win for sure at #1 singles and I like Wang over Stein at #2 singles. I'll take Elgort over Putterman at #3 singles as well giving Hopkins a 4-2 lead. Wods will use his experience to get a win at #4 to keep Wash U in it and I would also be surprised if Levy doesn't come through for Wash U at #6 singles. This leaves things at 4-4 with #5 singles left and I know it's biased but I always pick against the freshman in the case so I'll take Grist to win it for Hopkins 5-4 in an upset.

Weekend Thoughts Feb 12-14

A few observations and then Wash U-Chicago thoughts...

-Redlands had two matches. Reading and Hammond were both nowhere to be found. They had a lot of new guys in their lineup so I was surprised by this.

-Trinity (TX) took my advice and picked up their singles play a little bit. They lost 5-4 to the #1 JuCo school, which I feel is a very strong result for the Tigers and good to see for them going forward.

-Christopher Newport is a team to watch this year after seeing their lineup this weekend. Heyer at #4 singles is very tough and they could actually pose a threat to NC Wesleyan in the USA South.

-CMU had a good win over a ranked D2 team sweeping doubles which is promising for them going into this weekend.

-CMS was excellent at the top of the lineup against the #5 D2 school. I was very impressed by Erani and Lim. A great start to the year for those two.

-Whitman barely snuck by Pacific Lutheran. Take nothing away from PLU, but I expected a bit more from Whitman. After this match, I'm actually less impressed with Santa Cruz, because PLU was also able to take 2 of the doubles from Whitman, actually in more dominating fashion than Cruz.

I was shocked at Wash U's result with Case Western on Saturday. It was actually a pretty close 8-1. I thought the Bears may have just underestimated them and weren't ready to play, getting out some early season jitters. I was on target with the doubles results in the Wash U-Chicago match, but the singles was a shocker. This was an extremely close 5-4 which Wash U could have easily lost. I thought Woods could be the best 4 in the country but he lost, and Levy certainly is not back to his old form. If the Bears don't raise their level, they will lose to Hopkins. I can understand Putterman losing, but Chicago's 3 was also a freshman so that has to be alarming for the Bears as well. The other possibility is that I am really underestimating Chicago this year. They could be quite a bit stronger with 4 new guys in their starting lineup from last year including a new 2-3-4. My guess is they played very well and Wash U wasn't on top of their game. I'll be interested to see how the Bears respond because they barely got by on Sunday.

Wash U @ Chicago Pre-Match Thoughts

The biggest match of the season to date will be taking place when Chicago hosts Wash U on Sunday. While I don't expect an upset, we could be in for a competitive match. Both of these teams have taken the court this season so we know what to expect from them. As far as depth is concerned, I'm not all that concerned if I'm the lower ranked Maroons. I think where Chicago will fall short is the top and middle of the lineup. Wash U is just stronger in the top 4 spots as well as the top 2 doubles spots. I would expect Wash U to grab the top 2 doubles spots easily. #2 dubs has the potential to go Chicago's way but I doubt it will happen. Chicago must win 3 doubles to keep themselves in the match. Watts-Zhang is a potential NCAA Final matchup, but I have to go with Watts the way he's been playing. At #3 and #4, Putterman and Woods should be a little too much for their respective opponents. A spot I think Chicago could potentially win is #2. Stein is a good player for Wash U, but whether he can win at #2 is still unsure. Chicago also must win #5 and #6. They can definitely match Wash U's depth. A prediction from me will be 7-2 for Wash U. I would expect Chicago to win 3 dubs and 5 or 6 singles. The Bears just have too many big guns near the top of the lineup.

Weekend Thoughts Feb 5-7

We had several top 25 teams in action and I'll just go through each quickly. I'll touch on Trinity (TX), Wash U, Chicago and finally Kenyon vs Kalamazoo. There were other teams in action but I thought these were most important.

Trinity (TX) played three matches and it is extremely clear where they need work even after the first weekend. They played 2 D2 schools both ranked top 30 as well as an NAIA school. They went 7-2 in doubles and 4-14 in singles, including 0-9 in the 3 through 5 singles spots. Now I don't doubt their opponents were good but they won fairly comfortably in doubles and just got steamrolled in singles barely winning sets. They have a while before their first big D3 matches, but if I were the Tigers I'd be working on my singles.

Wash U played an annual D2 powerhouse in Drury University. I really like the fact that the Bears won the #2 doubles match, because I think this will be a huge spot for them this season. An interesting singles lineup for the Bears with Woods moving down to 4 and Stein up to 2, but they played Drury very tough. The match came down to the wire with Drury winning all 3 of the 3-set matches to take a 6-3 win. If I'm the Bears, I like the fact that I was right there at the end. This is a pretty good result for them going to Indoors. I think they need to focus on getting ahead of Hopkins in doubles and if they can do this, they are tough to beat.

Chicago went to Madison to play UW-Whitewater. Although they lost 2 of the doubles, they really were good in singles, winning all 6 matches. Chicago has Wash U this weekend and they need to be ready to play. I'll do a preview of the match later this week.

The big match of the weekend was Kenyon vs Kzoo. I expected a little more out of Kenyon and I thought this match would be 8-1 or 9-0. Although Kzoo lost, they put up a good fight despite the fact they weren't really close to winning. Vandenberg losing at 3 is understandable, but Brody should not be losing at 6 and the 1 doubles spot is huge for Kenyon. If Greenberg/Vandenberg aren't a force this year, the Lords have no shot at a national title. If Kzoo can consistently play this well, they could be a top 20 team this year. I think this match showed both teams they have a lot of room for improvement.