Weekend Preview: San Antonio and Pittsburgh

Wash U's Adam Putterman, courtesy ITA

19 important matches happening during easily the biggest weekend of the season. I'm going to split it up into 2 different previews and tonight I'll be discussing 4 teams meeting in San Antonio and 3 teams meeting in Pittsburgh.

San Antonio Schedule (All Times Eastern)

Current National Rankings: #4 CMS, #5 Wash U, #6 Cruz, #11 Trinity (TX)

Friday: 11AM, Wash U vs. UC Santa Cruz, 330PM CMS @ Trinity (TX)
Saturday: 11AM CMS vs. Cruz, 3PM Wash U @ Trinity (TX)
Sunday: 11AM Wash U vs. CMS, 1230PM Cruz @ Trinity (TX)

A huge weekend that all of these teams had circled on their calendar as soon as the schedule was made. The home team currently has the lowest national ranking, but that can all be thrown out the window at this point because Trinity has a significant home court advantage on outdoor courts that are probably faster than their opponents are accustomed to. Blog readers like the Stags to go undefeated this weekend, but I'm not so sure about that. I don't even want to try to predict each of these matches, but I will say that I don't expect anyone to come away winless. CMS has the best chance of emerging unbeaten, but I know Trinity isn't going to just lie down because they had a rocky start to the season. 2 of the 6 matches will be rematches from Indoors, both involving Cruz, so I'll be interested to see how those results change since 6 weeks ago. Last time Trinity hosted this in 2008, Williams, Wash U and CMS came to San Antonio. If I'm not mistaken, all 4 teams were top 8 in the country at the time. CMS ended up going 0-3 and no one came away undefeated with Trinity, Williams and Wash U all going 2-1. WU went on to win the national title and CMS finished 3rd. I don't expect a repeat of that, but it's important to remember that it's hard to be in top form 3 days in a row, and when you are playing tough opponents like this, getting up for matches and preparation play a huge role that can't accurately be measured. Coach McMindes is well aware that his team needs to make a statement this weekend and I expect them to do it. They had a rocky start to the season as expected, but it's time for them to turn it on. CMS wants to establish themselves as a front runner in the national title race and they also want to make sure that they host the NCAA West regional. The CMS-Cruz match is a highlight of every season and should be fantastic. Cruz comes in not having been really tested in a while, but they typically improve throughout a season very quickly. Cruz is dangerous as always this weekend and they are putting their 8 match winning streak against Trinity on the line. Cruz lost to Wash U at Indoors and lost to CMS twice last year, so I think the Slugs have something to prove against both of those opponents. To me, Wash U is the real wildcard here. They win with doubles and depth, a combo that worked for them at Indoors. They are a high energy team who is very fit and will surely be in top shape all 3 days. I know I picked them 7th in preseason, but the way they played at Indoors they are very tough to beat. I expect 6 great matches and a lot of drama in what really is a simulation of the 3 day stretch that is the NCAA Final Rounds.

Pittsburgh Schedule (All Times Eastern)

Current National Rankings: #8 Carnegie Mellon, #25 Mary Washington

Friday: 4PM Denison @ Carnegie Mellon
Saturday: 12PM Denison vs. Mary Washington
Sunday: 11AM Mary Washington @ Carnegie Mellon

Live Stats

CMU is the favorite to dominate this weekend and they have traditionally been very tough at home over the past few seasons. They haven't seen D3 action in a couple weeks and I think they also realize that these are must-wins. They're ranked 8th in the country, but they do have a 1-3 record against ranked D3 teams this year. Granted their losses are to #3, #6 and #7, but they are lacking in the wins category. These matches would really help, because after all, they are competing for a Pool C spot. Sitting in the top 10, it's hard to foresee the fact that it's possible you don't make the tournament at all. CMU has pretty much no margin for error and although they have a long way to go, they can't slip up, especially this weekend. I don't want to get into specific NCAA scenarios, but a loss here may drop them back to 17th or 18th in the national rankings, which is something they absolutely cannot afford. That being said, this is a really good team that had Cruz on the ropes and beat a full strength CLU squad. They are 8 in the country for a reason and I expect them to show that this weekend. They play a Denison squad who is coming off a 7-2 loss against 26th ranked Rhodes, but remember that Denison was points away from beating Chicago only 7 weeks ago. Denison can play solid doubles and if CMU doesn't come prepared, they can get in trouble quickly and not be able to escape with a win. The Tartans have to respect these opponents despite their rankings and recent results. I've said plenty about Mary Wash these past few weeks and they are coming off a 7-2 loss to 23rd ranked Bates, but the fact that they look good on paper hasn't changed. This remains a talented team and the past 3 years they have played some very tight matches against Carnegie. CMU's 8th ranked team only beat #22 Mary Wash 5-4 last year, so this is another danger match for the home team. The Saturday match just serves as a confidence booster as Denison looks to improve for their upcoming shot against conference rival Kenyon, and UMW looks to move toward extending their conference streak to 13 consecutive titles. The bottom line is if CMU shows up this weekend, they will take care of business, but that is much easier said than done.

Weekend Recap, Matches I Missed and Monday Preview

It was a shame that matches in Santa Cruz were canceled today, but there was still a lot of action over the weekend including a few matches I completely missed that didn't make it on the calendar. I apologize for those omissions and I'll touch on those results in this post. On Friday, Skidmore continued their mediocre play in California in a 6-3 loss to Redlands. I don't think the Thoroughbreds are top 20 material this year, especially given the scores in the bottom of the lineup against Redlands. Skidmore will look to improve when they return home. A much needed win for the Bulldogs and they have some very important matches coming up against Trinity (CT) and Williams before they get into SCIAC play. They know they have to make a splash soon and I expect them to raise their level. The other match on Friday had Mary Washington losing at home against Bates 7-2. The Eagles have 2 different personalities this season and it seems like they don't show up half the time. They beat Cal Lu, got crushed by an unranked Whittier, beat Washington & Lee and now lose badly to Bates. Mary Wash is in what amounts to a 3 year slump because on paper they should be top 20 and they are nowhere close to it. They have very little in the way of quality wins recently and I definitely see another 1st round exit in NCAAs in the near future.

On Saturday, two matches that weren't on the calendar took place with Mary Wash rebounding to beat Swarthmore and Emory taking down DePauw 7-2. A decent result for the Tigers as they hung at a few spots. One thing that concerns me is Emory's #2 doubles team. They beat CMS and have followed it up with losses to Denison and DePauw. I know Emory wants to keep their Pottish/Egan duo at 3, but to do that they need a decent 2 team. Also on Saturday, Pomona-Pitzer defeated Skidmore 7-2 in a routine victory. The Hens continue to roll. One of my matches to watch highlighted the weekend as CMS took on national title favorite Amherst. The Jeffs had been rolling the entire week, but as I said previously, they have struggled in the regular season the past 2 years. CMS stepped up and won this match somewhat comfortably. Alex Lane was the real difference maker as he got 2 huge victories for CMS. If I'm Amherst, there is nothing to be concerned about. I use this as motivation that the team still needs to improve. The Stags rebounded well after the Emory loss as they had to get a lot of their confidence back. I know Midd is 1, but I think even they know they don't belong there. I have no problem with them staying there due to last season, but they will have to beat Amherst eventually to keep that ranking. All of this leaves Emory as the team to beat in D3 right now. I see them going into NCAAs as the top seed. They have tests against Hopkins and Chicago, but the only match I could actually see them losing is a UAA final against Wash U if they get swept in doubles. CMS needs to refocus because they have 3 huge matches coming up in Texas this weekend. If this shows us anything, it's that no team stands out among the top teams and I think it's a 3 horse race for the national title.

Today was fairly uneventful, but I was impressed by Hopkins absolute destruction of Bates. The Bobcats are a solid team and Hopkins lost 10 total games in the bottom 4 singles spots. A remarkable performance heading into a huge Monday clash with NC Wesleyan. I was also disappointed in this effort by Bates because Hopkins is an excellent team, but they aren't Emory or CMS. This team went from beating UMW 7-2 to losing to JHU 8-1 and I think the gap between those 2 teams is large, but not that large. Also today, Swarthmore upset Christopher Newport 5-4 in a drama-filled contest. Not a good loss for the Captains as they need to close the gap with NCW and this doesn't help. An excellent win for Swat, who I still feel should be ranked in the next poll.

We've got a very big week ahead, but let's focus on tomorrow for the moment. 3 matches on the calendar, only 1 of which I consider significant. To begin, Bates continues their road trip and takes on a Kalamazoo team that's an absolute disaster right now. I see a routine win for the Bobcats and it should be a nice confidence boost after a rough day today. Cruz and Trinity (CT) will try to squeeze their match in with bad weather in the area. I could be wrong, but I think Trinity is pretty weak this year, so they may have benefited the most from the match cancellations avoiding matches against both Bowdoin and Cal Lu. The Bantams still sit at 14 in the country from last year's results. Bowdoin and Cal Lu would be 2 matches I'd expect them to lose. We'll see how they do against Cruz, but I project an easy win for the Slugs. The biggest match of the day, and one of my 10 matches to watch is a rematch of last year's epic Sweet 16 match between Johns Hopkins and NC Wesleyan. For those who don't know, Hopkins was at home in NCAAs last year and swept doubles before NCW stormed back and won all 6 first sets in an eventual 5-3 win that came down to the wire. I'm sure that's still fresh on the minds of Hopkins coaches and players, so they should desperately want some revenge, especially playing on the road this time. NCW didn't have the start they wanted at Indoors and this is one of their very few matches against a highly ranked team this season. If they don't win this, I don't see them breaking the top 10 during the regular season. Both teams should be incredibly fired up in what I expect will be an amazing match. I'm going to refrain from making a prediction because I really don't know.

I'll be back Monday night with a recap of the Hopkins-NCW match and a Tuesday preview.

Thoughts on Other Saturday Results and Monday Preview

Besides the Stag-Hen, 4 other important matches occurred Saturday. Let me begin in the Northeast, where Bates and MIT faced off in a match of 2 solid teams who are hoping to crack the top 20 this year. I know the Bates squad thinks they've got a good team this year but MIT defended their home court and came away with a 5-4 win. This MIT squad is getting better and we could see them in the top 20 this year after last year's Sweet 16 performance. Bates desperately needed this win if they wanted to have any hope at a Pool C bid and now they will need to do some serious work and pull a few upsets in NESCAC play. Even if Bates wins at the top of the lineup they are in trouble and this showed as MIT took 3, 4 and 6 as well as 2 of the doubles matches. It's a shame to see Bates not able to come through but I just don't think they have enough players to field a team that's competitive with the best in the country. Next, we got our first look at the defending national champs as they had a convincing 8-1 against Brandeis. Brandeis hasn't been doing very well this year, but credit to Midd for beating a solid team convincingly. Midd has designed their schedule so they don't have many tough D3 matches in California and they will get a chance to develop their young team before facing a serious test. A good start for Midd, I don't think they could have asked for much more.

Working our way South we had a clash in Virginia between two programs that have been struggling. Mary Washington defeated Washington & Lee 6-3 in a match that was fairly close. UMW was able to pull out 2 3-setters as well as a 9-7 in doubles to get a desperately needed win. It's clear the Eagles are much more comfortable playing on the East coast. It's a shame to see the fall of W&L as they will most likely be out of the top 30 in the next rankings for the first time since I can remember. This team was top 15 as recently as 2008 and they just aren't doing what they need to be doing. They will probably win their conference but for as good as they used to be, this is terrible from W&L. And lastly, out West, Cruz dominated Redlands 8-1. This result really surprised me because Redlands played Emory tough on Thursday and I thought they would have a good showing here. Cruz is notoriously tough on their home courts and I'm sure they played great doubles to suck the life out of UR. Cruz also has to be pleased seeing CMS fall like they did. Redlands has to be careful with the rise of Pomona-Pitzer because the Bulldogs are far from a lock for the tournament. They are solid on paper, but they've got to string some wins together eventually and an 8-1 loss to Cruz isn't going to get it done. Well done by the Slugs and a good start to a tough next few weeks.

4 matches on the calendar taking place tomorrow, but only 1 of real significance in my opinion. The first match to mention will be Denison and Rhodes battling for what could be a spot in the top 30. Rhodes started the season by upsetting a solid UT-Tyler team and the Lynx have consistently been 3rd in their conference in recent years after Trinity (TX) and DePauw. Dension is coming off a near upset of Chicago in which the deciding match was 7-5 in the 3rd in favor of Chicago. If Denison wants to have any chance at an NCAA bid, they need this win and it will also help them to build confidence for an eventual showdown with Kenyon. Secondly, aforementioned UT-Tyler takes on Whitman in California. WC is fresh off a good SH Invite and UT-Tyler has really been struggling, falling not only to Cal Lu and Rhodes, but also to conference foe McMurry. They're hurting right now and aren't what they used to be, so I'll predict an easy win for Whitman. In the third match, Kenyon continues their spring break when they travel to Thousand Oaks to take on Cal Lutheran. With Cal Lu missing their top player, I like Kenyon to get a pretty easy win. This will be a nice cool down for Kenyon after a stressful weekend as they should win a comfortable 6-3 or 7-2. On the other hand, it will be a good test for Cal Lu to help them realize what they need to do to be competitive going forward.

The main event tomorrow will be a clash between 2 top 15 teams: Bowdoin and Trinity (TX). This will be Bowdoin's first match of the spring, and honestly I'm not too sure what to expect from them. Trinity (TX) is fresh off disappointment and I would assume they are still beaten up from a rough 2 days. 48 hours is not enough turnaround time to get a team completely healthy. This is a tough opener for Bowdoin, but as a Pool C team, they really need to be on their heels, especially after Trinity lost to both Whitman and PP. If Bowdoin loses tomorrow, and then Redlands beats PP, the Polar Bears could be in big trouble when it comes to making the tournament. I know it's tough to look that far ahead, but every match is important. I just don't trust Trinity at all right now, but a win tomorrow would at least show the country something. Likewise, Bowdoin can make a statement that they are a contender with a win tomorrow. I expect a competitive match and it's too hard to predict since I know little about this year's Bowdoin squad.

Two notes: If anyone is at the matches and will email me score updates, I will tweet them. I instantly get emails on my phone so the turnover time will be quick. I'm sure everyone who reads the blog would appreciate it. Secondly, I put the match calendar together a while ago and haven't looked to update it. If I missed any matches or if anyone knows of schedule changes, please email me and let me know. It's too much work to go through every team's schedule again and check everything.

Thoughts on the Next Few Days

Cameron Spearman, Redlands

I will have a separate post Wednesday evening discussing the Stag-Hen Invitational.

First, I want to go over today's result that had Vassar defeating Whittier 6-3. The Brewers are now 3-0 in California with routine wins against Salisbury, Occidental and Whittier. Tomorrow they take on #7 Kenyon. If anyone knows the Lords well, it is Vassar's head coach John Cox. The question is if his team is skilled enough to pull out a few matches against Kenyon, who is arguably the hottest team in the country at the moment. However, Kenyon's 2 signature wins both came at home. I like Kenyon to win this match 7-2 or 8-1, but I also expect some tight matches. This is a perfect tuneup for the Lords heading into a huge Friday clash with Whitman. Another interesting thing to note is with this result, it is very possible that Mary Wash will be out of the rankings when they are released next week, especially if they lose to W&L this weekend. Who would have thought Mary Wash would be out of the top 30 2 weeks ago? I think it's quite clear that Whittier benefited from an exhausted UMW team and they aren't exactly top 30 material this year. They should enjoy their national ranking while it lasts though.

Apart from the Stag-Hen (SH), there is other tennis in California this week and weekend. Emory warms up for their SH by facing Redlands on Thursday. In Emory's past California trips, they haven't stopped by Redlands to play, so these 2 aren't too familiar with each other. I think this will be a great test for the doubles of both squads, and it will also give Redlands a chance to gauge the strength of the bottom of their lineup. I do expect the Bulldogs to come out with a couple wins in this, but they have to not be intimidated, especially in doubles. I'll talk about Emory later in the week when I discuss the SH, but I think this will be a perfect warm-up for them against a team that will challenge them, but not beat them. The more important match for Redlands is on the road against Santa Cruz on Saturday. I don't consider the Emory match winnable for the Bulldogs, but the Cruz match certainly is if Redlands is playing well. This would be a fantastic win for their program, but my heart tells me Cruz will be a little too much. After Saturday, the country will have a much better indication as to the strength of this year's Redlands team. A win against Cruz would put them in fantastic position for a Pool C bid, but I expect the Slugs to pull out a close one. Cruz is too disciplined to lose a match like this and if they play great doubles, this could turn into a blowout.

A team I haven't talked about much is UT-Tyler. The Pats started very slow this year with their first conference loss since 2007 and then a 5-4 loss against Rhodes. They take on Cal Lu in their first match without Ballou, and both of these teams desperately need a win. If you remember last year, UT-Tyler didn't have the greatest regular season, but came on very strong in NCAAs. They have to regroup and focus their efforts on winning the ASC. A win over CLU would certainly help to build their confidence. Remember 2 years ago at this time, this Tyler team was ranked 13 in the country.

There are 3 other Saturday matches and the most notable thing happening is Middlebury's first D3 test when they take on Brandeis. The Judges are coming off a decent California trip and I don't think they have much of a chance in this, but as long as they keep improving and peak at UAAs, they should be happy. As I've said, so many question marks surround Midd this year, so I'll be interested to see how they start against a solid opponent. They are still 1 in the country dating back to last year and I know they are talented, but getting off to a good start and getting their young guys confidence are 2 important aspects of their season. The other 2 matches should be very close. First we have Bates taking on MIT in a match of 2 New England teams trying to prove their worth. Both programs have top 20 aspirations this year, and if Bates wants to get a whiff of a Pool C bid in 2011, this is a must-win for them. MIT played a decent fall match against Williams, so they look to start strong in D3 play this spring and follow up their Sweet 16 performance in 2010. I expect this to be a battle as MIT won a close one in 2010. Lastly, the rivalry continues between Mary Washington and Washington & Lee. Despite being in separate conferences, geography makes these 2 hated rivals. Both teams are in desperate need of a win, particularly the Eagles, who have to feel great being back in Virginia after their California catastrophe. The loser of this probably won't be ranked in the next ITA poll. In 2008, both of these teams were top 18 in the nation when they met in the NCAA round of 32. Mary Wash won 5-4 and went on to beat Trinity (TX) the next day for a spot in the Final 8. How things have changed. Both teams are barely hanging on to their rankings and the glory they once had. It will be a huge win for the winner and a huge loss for the loser, as both of these teams have little to no confidence at the moment.

Saturday Results

Hopkins d. Vassar 9-0
Emory d. Newport 9-0
Redlands d. Mary Washington 7-2

I apologize for not being very active lately, but there hasn't been much going on. The season really kicks off this Wednesday, and there is a match almost every day until early May. The Stag-Hen this weekend is really the kickoff to the spring season after Indoors and I'll be previewing that later this week.

This weekend we had 3 noncompetitive matches. To begin, Hopkins dominated as expected, although they were tested at the top 2 doubles spots. This was a good warm-up match for the Bluejays and they won't be tested again for 2 weeks when they have a brutal 6 day stretch that includes matches against CNU, Bates, Emory, NCW and Kalamazoo. If I were Hopkins, I'd be working on my fitness a lot to make sure I don't wilt by the end of that string of matches. JHU did what they needed to do this weekend, but they need to be ready for some tougher competition. Vassar travels to California this week and they have a shot at newly ranked Whittier on Tuesday before Coach Cox takes on his former team Kenyon on Wednesday. They then participate in the Stag-Hen where they get to play Enory first round which I'm sure will be a great experience for them. They have to put their focus on improving to beat Skidmore, and they now know what they need to do since they've seen the Thoroughbreds before.

In the other 9-0, Emory topped Christopher Newport as expected, but with much more ease in singles than I was expecting. The Eagles dropped 4 games in the top 3 singles spots, which is just flat out impressive given that CNU's top 3 aren't too shabby. Emory played good enough doubles and they will need to play great doubles if they want to return to Atlanta with a Stag-Hen title next weekend. The Eagles have a tricky match against Redlands on Thursday before the Stag-Hen Invite where likely matches with Trinity (TX) and CMS await. Those 2 will really test the Eagles, and a CMS-Emory final could be a national title match preview. Newport is an interesting story. I don't like to be harsh on teams, but I have a feeling they think they are a lot better than they actually are. The Captains need to win their conference this year and it will be tough to do. They don't play the schedule to get a Pool C bid, so their only road to the tournament is through NCW. The fact is they should be a good team with a top 2 like they have, but I haven't decided whether or not they are a top 25 caliber team. They don't have much until they play W&L in 3 weeks, and I'm expecting that match to tell me a lot about them.

The past several years, the Redlands-Mary Wash match has always been a war, with the 2009 match being tied at 4-4 before Spearman won it for Redlands. This year it was quite a different story. This was exactly the start that Redlands needed to their D3 season and I'm glad to see it. They got a little confidence under their belt heading into matches with Emory and Cruz during the next 6 days. I think Cruz is a winnable match and it will show us what Redlands is really made of this year. I will also be looking at this match later in the week. A wonderful result for Redlands, but the question is how much of it was them playing well and how much of it was Mary Wash continuing to be terrible? The Eagles were an absolute joke this week, and for the players they have on their team, I don't know how they lose like they do. Something happened to this team between '08 and '09, because they haven't been the same program since that NCAA quarterfinal against Middlebury in 2008. I can't put my finger on what's wrong either, but they are horrendous. As I said, I thought this year's team got on the right track after that Cal Lu win, but I was very wrong. They sit at #27 in the nation, and a loss to W&L next Saturday may very well drop them out of the rankings, which is just inexcusable for a program like this. They are lucky to be in a weak conference, but that doesn't mean they should cruise through the season. On paper, I think this team should be in the low 20s and possibly the top 20, but they aren't playing like it. I wondered if the weather adjustment was a factor, but they still got crushed a week after they got there, so that doesn't seem to be the case. Right now I think they just played over their heads at Indoors, riding their home court advantage. The good news is they still have 2 months to turn it around, but things are looking grim for the Eagles.

Weekend Ahead

Only 3 matches of note until next Wednesday and they all take place on Saturday. First, we get a look at Christopher Newport in D3 action when they take on one of the top teams in the country in Emory. This won't be much of a match and I expect Emory to come away with a 9-0 or 8-1 win, but there will some good matches at the top of the lineup with Emory's 1-2 punch of Pottish and Goodwin versus Shulman and Heyer for CNU. 4 of the probable top 25 singles players in the country will be competing. Second, we get our first look at Johns Hopkins this spring as they take on a Vassar team that is coming off a 7-2 defeat against Skidmore. A lot of people are on the look out for Skidmore as a big-time sleeper this year, so how Vassar does against Hopkins may tell us something about Skidmore. I know it's a mistake to expect big things from JHU, but I do once again, so it would be great to see them get off to a strong start.

The main event this weekend is Mary Washington and Redlands in the Bulldogs' D3 kickoff this year. This is a huge match for Redlands because not only do they need the win, but more importantly they need confidence to start the year. UMW and Redlands have had very close matches the past couple years, and I expect more of the same this year. This is key for both teams. Mary Wash is 0-3 so far in California and Redlands needs all the wins they can get to qualify for Pool C, and they can't afford a loss to the #27 team in the country. I'm looking forward to this one.

CMS defeats Mary Wash 8-1 and ITA Rankings

CMS beat Mary Washington 8-1 with about 1/2 of their normal lineup. The Eagles will finish in California taking on Redlands Saturday in what's pretty much a must win for the Bulldogs after Mary Wash left the top 25.

New ITA rankings out today and obviously I think one thing stands out. Rankings are just about perfect in my opinion, however I don't know how Cal Lutheran managed to stay at #12 after a loss to Mary Washington, who currently stands at #27. I'd be very interested to hear the logic behind this. Also, W&L took out Salisbury 8-1 but the Gulls are still 23rd and W&L is 29. Not too much else to discuss as a few teams swapped spots, but nothing too much happened since the fall. I think a lot more will be reflected in the next rankings.

Mary Wash's Rough Start and The Big Picture

For those of you who haven't heard, Mary Washington began their California swing with an 8-1 loss to Pomona-Pitzer and a 7-2 loss to Whittier.

The Eagles scheduled 2 back-to-back matches and they clearly underestimated the Whittier Poets, projected to finish #5 in the SCIAC. I really thought Mary Washington had turned the corner when they got that win over Cal Lutheran. I think we now know that the Cal Lutheran team that showed up on Saturday at Indoors was not the same team that showed up on Friday at Indoors. The Eagles see CMS on Thursday and Redlands on Saturday to finish their trip. I'm interested to see how they fair on Saturday against the Bulldogs in a match that has traditionally been very close. Whittier doesn't play a stacked schedule, but they do have Vassar in a week and then the top SCIACs as well. They already lost to Pomona-Pitzer in an 8-1 rout and my guess is they caught a beaten down and demoralized Mary Wash team, similar to the Cal Lu team that Mary Wash played. With this win, it would be tough to keep them out of the top 25 though. The ranking committee has quite a task in front of them and I'll be interested to see what they come up with for Thursday. I thought the Eagles would come out prepared against PP after losing last year's match, but the Hens always give their best and are well coached. PP, unlike Whittier, plays a stacked schedule, and we will find out how good they really are as soon as next weekend. They open their own Stag-Hen invitational against Trinity (TX) and could have potential opponents such as Vassar, Whitman, Kenyon and Emory in the tournament. After last night, I think they are a legitimate Pool C contender. They have a veteran team who is hungry to get back in the tournament and this could be their year. I want to pose a question and look at a string of match results to lead me into my next point. If Pomona-Pitzer played Mary Washington tomorrow in Fredericksburg indoors, who would win? Even after having last night's information, I'd still be tempted to pick Mary Wash in that match. This Mary Wash team is no pushover. Even after their first 2 matches, they give a very good Trinity (TX) team all they could handle in a pretty tight 6-3.

Pomona-Pitzer beat Mary Washington 8-1. Mary Washington beat Cal Lutheran 5-4. Carnegie Mellon beat Cal Lutheran 5-4. Cruz beat Carnegie Mellon 5-4. Wash U beat Cruz 5-4. In a way this reminds me of 2008, when the top 16-18 teams in the country could all beat each other on any given day. This year with the information we have so far, I think there are two groups of teams: the top 3 and everyone else. I don't see anyone beating Herst, CMS and Emory besides each other. After that, it's possible that there is not a large gap between #4 and #20. No one has stepped up to the plate as a #4 that can challenge the top 3, but we haven't seen Midd, Williams or Hopkins yet. Wash U gave Emory a tough time but I don't see them truly challenging the top 3. Things could really get thrown into disarray if Mary Wash takes out Redlands Saturday and then the Bulldogs start beating people. Everything is just such a mess right now, when I first heard these results, I started asking a bunch of questions. In 3 weeks, we will have a lot more information and should be able to sort out the pretenders from the contenders. Every match is vitally important for the Pool C teams and you then have to root for the teams that you beat. There aren't a lot of results in yet, but we could technically see Pomona-Pitzer at #11 or #12 in the rankings on Thursday. I think they should be more like 14 or 15. I don't even want to try to take a crack at rankings right now because there aren't enough results. I think the thing to take from all of these early season matches is that we may be in for a great season where anyone can beat anyone else and every team always has to be looking over their shoulder because they have a target on their back. The Eagles have a chance for redemption Saturday. It's just strange to see them lose like they did, but maybe Pomona-Pitzer has really developed and is ready to contend for the top 10 in the country. Things are so wide open at the moment, there's no reason they can't do it. We will see what happens over the next few weeks and I'll take another look at "the big picture" then.

Indoors Review By Team

Cal Lutheran - The Kingsmen did worse than their worst case scenario. Not good. Their 1-2-3 punch turned out to be a 1-2 punch. Player to watch Ray Worley didn't do what he needed to do this weekend, and he needs to win for this team to be good. You can't get it done with only 2 players. A bright spot was Justin Wilson who I would suspect may move to the #3 spot in the coming weeks. I'm not sure where the Kingsmen will drop to in the rankings, but whatever it is, they need to worry about even making NCAAs. With only 6 spots available, I'm thinking the cutoff will be 13 or 14 and they may very well be out of the NCAA tournament when the next rankings come out. This team was demoralized after their first match and things hit them so fast. They went from thinking they would be in the semis to being down 3-0 to NCW in the 7th place match in a 24-hour span. 1 of 2 things will happen: either they will go in the tank and decide they just aren't that good this season, or they will go home and train harder and remember that they still have 13 ranked teams to play this season. The team is still there, they just need to get their heads on straight. Weekend MVP is clearly Nick Ballou because without him they wouldn't have been competitive at all in this tournament. He went 5-1 on the weekend. Their next real test is this Saturday when they take on conference rival Pomona-Pitzer in what amounts to a must win match for the Kingsmen.

NC Wesleyan - They didn't do what they wanted, but at least they got a win. The Bishops know what level they need to be to compete with the top 10 teams in the country and at the moment I see them just on the outskirts of the top 10. They need to go work on their doubles because even though they have an excellent singles lineup top to bottom, they will never do anything if they can't play doubles. I thought taking a point from Trinity was a huge step for them in doubles and then they saw how easy life is after you sweep doubles when they played against CLU. Like I said, I expected something from them in the Wash U match and got nothing, which was disappointing to see. They aren't quite there yet, but they are slowly making progress. Weekend MVP for them is freshman Robert Kielberg who went 4-0 for them in their last two matches including huge doubles wins at #1 over Trinity and Cal Lu. He certainly looks like a promising player for a young Bishops team. Looking ahead, they don't have much until 1 month from today when they take on Hopkins in North Carolina. This is a huge match when it comes to NCAA seeding and hosting as well as a confidence boost for both teams. They solidified their place as a heavy favorite in the USA South and now need to focus their efforts on getting a high ranking and nice NCAA regional.

Mary Washington - A great tournament for the hosts as they did exactly what they needed to do this weekend and that was get a win. They came into the tournament ranked 12 spots below the lowest team and will leave the tournament most likely ranked in the top 15. This was a massive weekend for a team that has been struggling for the better part of the last 2 years and I can't say enough about their fight and effort on Saturday. Todd Helbling does a great job with this program and they should leave this tournament feeling really good about their potential this season. They have an excellent mix of youth and experience and have a complete lineup with a strong #1 in Player To Watch Sam Wichlin supplemented by a deep supporting cast. I have to give weekend MVP to Kevin Aquino who was huge in the Cal Lu match for them. He wasn't all that great in the other 2 matches, but he generated 2 points in their lone win including a come from behind doubles win and the deciding match at 4-4. Looking ahead, the Eagles leave for California and will have 2 important matches out there against Pomona-Pitzer and Redlands. These are 2 matches I expect the Eagles to win and they are matches the Eagles should win if this is actually a top 15 team. Mary Wash still has a lot of work to do as far as getting back to where they were, but this weekend was a large step in the right direction for a program that needed a boost.

Trinity (TX) - Because of their history at this tournament, I didn't expect a ton from the Tigers and I didn't get much. I'll make a few things very clear and I think everyone knows this including them. The Tigers went 5-4 in doubles this weekend. If they continue to play like this, they won't do anything this season and they may not break the top 10. Cory Kowal went 0-6 this weekend. If he can't get wins, they aren't doing anything this season either. As I've stressed several times before, this is a team that gets better as the season progresses and it looks like this season will be the same. A bright spot for the Tigers was freshman Greg Haugen who has 3-0 at the #5 singles spot against 3 very strong opponents. Although he doesn't play doubles, he played a huge role for the Tigers this weekend. I think it's a bit premature for Coach McMindes to mess with his doubles lineup, but he may want to have a second look at his singles lineup, the bottom half in particular. My weekend MVP for the Tigers is sophomore Erick Delafuente who went 5-1 in the weekend including 3-0 in doubles. As shaky as the Tigers doubles was, the 2 team of Frey/Delafuente was incredible, dropping 6 games in 3 matches and cementing themselves as the best 2 team in the country. The #1 team is a completely different team when they are in a dual match versus individual competition and 0-3 is unacceptable for a team that won ITA nationals. They need to find their form if the Tigers want to be a top 8 team this year. The next big match for Trinity will be at the Stag-Hen where they have a tricky opener against Pomona-Pitzer and a probable semifinal date with Emory.

Carnegie Mellon - The positives outweigh the negatives for CMU. They came into this tournament knowing what they had to do and they got the job done. I wasn't sure where the wins would come from, but they stepped up when they needed to against Cal Lu and pushed a definite top 8 team in Cruz. They beat a team ranked ahead of them and should take over the #7 spot in the ITA rankings. The first match was the one they needed so they didn't have to deal with playing teams ranked below them in the consolation. I really can't give them much criticism because they finished in the top half of the tournament. Looking at the negatives, Player To Watch Bobby Mactaggart went 0-6 on the weekend and he will really need to pick up his play if they want to end up with a top seed in their regional. I don't think this team is quite good enough to win if he's not producing wins. They went 3-6 in doubles and from recent memory Coach Girard hasn't gone through a whole season without switching his doubles teams, so I would expect changes within the next month if they continue to lose. Weekend MVP is Duke Miller despite his 2-4 overall record. He got a huge win against Cruz and won the deciding match against Cal Lu versus a player he wasn't expected to beat. CMU needs to rebound quickly because they have a huge match against Kenyon on Saturday on the road. This is a big rivalry and will test CMU to see if they belong on the top 8.

Santa Cruz - Coach Hansen isn't happy unless Cruz takes home first place, so despite having a solid weekend, the Slugs will probably go home thinking about a squandered opportunity. They had a good weekend and it seems as though they patched up their holes nicely from last year. The loss to Wash U was disappointing, but other than that they beat 2 very good teams in tight matches that were both great learning experiences. I think what we do know is that this team needs some serious training if they want to beat CMS this year, who looks to be about the level of Emory. The days of Cruz winning consistent national titles are probably over, but they are certainly still a top 8 teams and potentially a top 5 team. The Slugs played like they always do this weekend, going 5-4 in doubles and showing a ton of heart in all of their singles wins. Weekend MVP for Cruz is definitely Brian Pybas who went 4-2 on the weekend including 3-1 against Trinity and Wash U. Another bright spot for Cruz was their #3 doubles team of Ian Stanley and Eric Rosner who went 3-0 in their matches against 3 solid team and could be in the conversation for best 3 team in the country at the moment. Looking ahead, Cruz hosts Redlands in 3 weeks in what should be a win and then they have a brutal 2 week stretch at the end of March. They will need to be in phenomenal shape to get through all those matches especially since they aren't that deep.

Wash U - A great tournament for the Bears. We weren't sure how they would respond losing 2 key starters and not really bringing in anyone for this year, but they played great tennis start to finish and I was particularly impressed with their doubles. They had a very tricky first round, but I speak time and time again about their discipline and they showed it in all 3 matches. I didn't expect them to be as strong as they were this weekend, but they proved me wrong and showed they could easily end the year in the top 5 and make a 4th straight Final 4 appearance. I don't know if any other team had such a complete team effort throughout the tournament as the Bears ended up going 7-2 in doubles and all 3 spots won at least 2 matches, with the #2 team winning all of their matches. Weekend MVP for the Bears goes to Kareem Farah who went 6-0 on the weekend including 3 dominating doubles performances. I really think the Bears are even at the 4 through 6 spots, so whoever ends up at 6 should be one of the best in the country at his position. That being said, they got wins at 4 against Cruz and NCW, so I wouldn't really call it a weak spot. I know Wash U's focus every year is winning the UAA and beating Emory, and I think they may need a doubles sweep to do it as we saw from Sunday's result. It's certainly not impossible and history is on Wash U's side in this regard. The Bears won't be in D3 action for a month when they travel to Texas to take on Cruz, CMS and Trinity (TX) in what should be an amazing 3 days of tennis.

Emory - This was pretty predictable. The Eagles dropped 5 total points in 3 matches and even though Wash U gave them a scare, they showed they were the best team at this tournament by quite a bit. Pretty much anyone in the country will need to win 5 of 7 matches against the Eagles because with Pottish and Goodwin on their team, it's almost 2-0 before the match starts. Everyone knows you have to get Emory in doubles, and the Eagles doubles was very good but not great this weekend. They were somewhat lucky to not get swept against Wash U and I could see them getting swept by other teams later this spring. If the Eagles can get a point on the board, they are a clear favorite against anyone in the country and I am really looking forward to seeing them take on Amherst and CMS eventually. This 2011 team is very focused and will work very hard to try to bring home their first national title in 5 years. Weekend MVP and tournament MVP is definitely Chris Goodwin who went 6-0 in the weekend, including 2 big wins at #1 doubles against strong teams. After seeing the Eagles results this weekend, I think they are as good as anyone in the country. They won't be tested again until March 10th against Redlands and they will use this as a warm-up for the Stag-Hen when they have a probable semifinal date with Trinity (TX) and a possible final against CMS on the Stags home courts. This will be a real test for Emory and we will see how tough they really are during this California trip.

National Indoors Preview: Quarterfinal #1: #3 Emory vs. #19 Mary Washington

2009 Indoors 1st Round: Emory d. Mary Washington 9-0

Look at the above box score. That is exactly what will happen on Friday. I really don't need to put much into this preview, and I will also try not to use the term "Eagles," because I'll just confuse myself and everyone else. To begin, I'll say that in Mary Wash's first match of the spring against George Mason today, both Sam Wichlin and Will Apperson didn't play. They will probably be #1 and #3, respectively, for UMW this season, and they may also form the #2 doubles team. For the sake of Mary Wash being competitive at all in this entire tournament, let's hope those 2 are playing. Without them, UMW will struggle to get points in their 3 matches. One thing you can count on is that Mary Wash will fight, but this match is about Emory. I don't think we will get a true indication of how good they are in this match, but they have an opportunity to make a statement, just like they did in 2009. Honestly, I don't expect Emory to beat teams this weekend, I expect them to destroy everyone this weekend. I don't think anyone will come close to Emory. Browning still has to be thinking about the NCAA loss last year and he will not let it happen again. Emory will show up in top form this weekend and I have high expectations for them. If anything is wrong, their doubles lineup is in a bit of disarray at the moment, so they will probably use Friday's match to get things in order and get some of their younger guys experience on a big stage. If Mary Wash is going to do anything in this match, they probably have their best shot at either 2 or 3 doubles, depending upon which spot Pottish doesn't play. Mary Wash also could give Emory a little trouble at the 4 through 6 spots, but the top 3 singles spots should all be blowouts. I rarely predict 9-0 results, but I'm going to do it for this match. Mary Wash just can't match Emory's talent, and all they can hope for is to fight their hearts out for pride on their home courts. Emory should advance to Saturday's semifinal round without having to exert much energy. Mary Wash needs to not get discouraged, because their Saturday morning consolation match will be much more winnable.

2011 Team Preview #7: Mary Washington

Sam Wichlin

Coach: Todd Helbling, 12th Season
Location: Fredericksburg, Virginia
Conference: Capital
2008 Ranking: 9
2009 Ranking: 18
2010 Ranking: 23
2011 Projected: 19

Last year, with a finish of 23rd in the country, the Eagles concluded their worst season in Coach Helbling's 11 seasons. The team was young and not that strong, but a drop of 14 spots in 2 years is significant, and should be a red flag for any program. The Eagles have the luxury of not having to worry about making the NCAA tournament this year with conference rival Salisbury being very weak. The Eagles still play a daunting schedule, beginning with Indoors where they will be the underdog in 3 consecutive matches, no matter who the opponents are. Mary Wash needs to go back to the drawing board and regroup a little bit. They have a promising sophomore in Sam Wichlin who was one of my players to watch, and they have a 3-time NCAA doubles qualifier in Kaz Murata who definitely could make it 4 in a row this year. Mary Wash is fairly even throughout the lineup, and this was a problem for them last year. They did a lot of lineup switching, but during all of it no one was really consistent. They had 2 bright spots all last season, and that was a win against Redlands and then a conference title. They lost to a clearly inferior team in NCAAs and also had bad losses against W&L and Newport. Something has gone wrong the past 2 years, but I can't put my finger on it. Talent and depth wise, they should be a fixture in the top 20. They get adequate recruits, but the fantastic development that existed in the middle of the decade isn't there anymore. Helbling is one of the top coaches in D3 and I believe this is a crucial year for Mary Wash tennis. If they can start strong and pull an upset at Indoors, it could lead to great things later in the season. As for goals, I think they should focus on the top 15 and winning their first NCAA match, since that is something they've failed to do in the last 2 years. Their players need to develop throughout the season and they need to believe they are still one of the top teams in the country.

Regional Preview: Carnegie Mellon

Of the bottom 4 seeds, this is by far the easiest path to the Final 8 for the top seed. CMU really lucked out with this regional, but I know I shouldn't be underestimating Mary Washington. The Eagles had a pretty poor season besides winning their conference title that included losses to Christopher Newport, Washington & Lee and Pomona-Pitzer, all of whom are outside the top 20. The Eagles only quality win with the exception of Salisbury was Redlands. Mary Wash got destroyed by most of the top 15 teams they played, but there was one exception to that and it was Carnegie Mellon. That regular season match was played at UMW and ended in a 5-4 victory for CMU. Mary Wash took 2 easy doubles matches but they were blown out by the bottom of CMU's lineup, failing to win more than 4 games in any set 3 through 6. Mary Wash did win at 1 and 2 making the score seem close. Carnegie's doubles has been up and down all season, but they didn't have their new doubles lineup for this match and in fact it was the last match where they played their old lineup. Their new lineup seems to be quite a bit stronger so I would expect a 5-1 or 5-2 win for CMU if these two meet in the regional final. I just don't think Mary Wash can hang in singles.

The sleeper here is UT-Tyler. The Pats had a season where they dropped out of the top 30 and they don't have any wins over top 30 opponents. They do however, have a former NCAA doubles qualifier in David Ashlock as well as the Fall ITA regional doubles champions for Texas. The Patriots could probably hang with a team like Newport who in fact beat Mary Wash. I think if Tyler could somehow get on top in doubles, it's possible that they could pull an upset. If I'm Mary Wash, I don't want to underestimate Texas-Tyler because they are a good team. They played 6-3 with Redlands as well as 5-4 with Pomona-Pitzer, so the talent is there. They all need to come together on Friday to pull this upset. I'm going to take Mary Wash 5-2 in this match but as I said if Tyler gets ahead in doubles this will get interesting.

Weekend Recap: April 23-25

UAA Champion Emory Eagles

A couple big results of note on Friday. The match that was scheduled for Sunday between Amherst and Trinity (CT) was moved until Friday due to poor weather being forecasted. Amherst was the favorite here but as I've stated over and over Trinity needs to make something happen if they want to make the tournament. Trinity had an opportunity but slipped as they lost a tiebreaker at 3 doubles to give Amherst the momentum going into singles. The Jeffs were too strong and came away with 4 easy singles wins to wrap up the match. Amherst has their chance at Middlebury next weekend so we will see if they can make some magic happen. It would be a big win for Amherst because as of now they are in line to play CMS or Wash U in the NCAA quarterfinals. Moving on, a very surprising result happened in the first round of the UAA tournament. Although Brandeis had some decent results earlier this season, they had just lost to 26th ranked MIT so I didn't consider them a real threat to the Maroons. Chicago jumped out to a lead after doubles and looked like they would run away with the match. Chicago's 1 William Zhang was unable to play and this pushed everyone up a spot for Chicago. This was bad news for Chicago and a 3rd set tiebreak win at #2 singles would prove to be the difference and give Brandeis the win. A tough end to a pretty good season for Chicago and they will miss the tournament once again after underachieving for the 3rd year in a row. A great win for a Brandeis program that looks to be on the rise. The biggest match of the day was the CAC final as Salisbury took on Mary Wash. Although the singles were highly contested, I was pretty sure Mary Wash would win after they took 2 of 3 doubles. They were playing without one of their best players and still managed to win. They just deserve to be in the tournament more than Salisbury. Look at the top 2 singles spots. You have freshman for UMW against senior for Salisbury and UMW takes both spots. Great stuff from the Eagles but Salisbury can't expect to win against good teams turning in performances like that. The Eagles win their 11th conference title in a row.

Three pretty big matches on Saturday with the first being a regular season NESCAC match between Bowdoin and Williams. I expected a competitive match but with Williams at home and needing a win, the outcome was not as I expected. Bowdoin isn't deep enough to play with Williams in singles or doubles and this showed as Williams won comfortably. The outcome was never in doubt. Willams partially solved their doubles woes in this match but their 2 and 3 teams need to keep up the good play. I don't think they have a combination that is effective at 1 and this could hurt them down the road. They've put themselves in good position to make the tournament after this win and probably will enter the NESCAC tournament as the #3 seed. The SCAC semifinal between DePauw and Rhodes I thought was a potential danger match for the Tigers. Rhodes struggled this season in doubles and that continued as DePauw got the doubles sweep. They still had to battle to win the match but chances were good that DePauw would win. In D3, you can't win if you're not winning in doubles and this is where Rhodes fell short all season. DePauw was tested but advanced to the championship to face Trinity (TX). The final match of the day was a top 10 clash between Emory and Carnegie Mellon. The doubles was closely contested but Emory took an expected 2-1 lead. I think CMU needed to get up in doubles if they wanted to win because of Emory's 2 big guns at the top of the singles lineup. Emory closed with 3 quick wins in singles and showed that they are playing well at the end of the season as always. This was stopped at 5-1 but I'm guessing it was probably headed for a 7-2. A dominant performance by Emory and they would face Wash U in a much anticipated final.

3 conference finals took place on Sunday and I'll run through each of the results.

ODAC

Washington & Lee entered the conference tournament in very unfamiliar territory: as the #2 seed and the underdog. The good news for the Generals is that they hosted the match and this was a big advantage for them. HSC played tough doubles and took a much needed 2-1 lead with wins at 1 and 2. In their regular season match, it was 2 wins in the bottom of the singles lineup that propelled HSC to a win. It looked like they only needed one of those this time around. For me, the turning point in this match was the victory for Hayden White at #1 singles. Moss is the heart of the HSC team and it's tough to watch your best player lose to a guy he's beaten twice this year. This win at the top of the lineup put W&L in control of the match and a comeback win at 4 singles all but sealed it for the Generals. They were dominant at both 5 and 6 and were able to win the match despite a loss at #2 singles. W&L brought the ODAC title back to Lexington and will be headed to the NCAA tournament. I think the better team won in this match and the Generals deserve the title.

SCAC

The UAA final was obviously a nerve-racking experience for both teams but I couldn't imagine something tougher than having to play with your season on the line against your biggest rival. The ODAC final also had this, but DePauw and Trinity (TX) are two teams that are so used to success, it's hard to think one of them won't be playing in the NCAA tournament. DePauw had a streak of 3 straight conference titles and last year DePauw knocked Trinity out of the NCAA tournament for the first time in many years. Trinity was out for revenge this year and they found it with some amazing doubles play. They surrendered only 11 games in a doubles sweep to put themselves in complete control of the match. DePauw looked like they would fight back and took the next 3 matches, but after being swept in doubles it's very difficult to complete the comeback. Trinity showed a lot of resiliency and got a 3 set win at 4th singles to seal the match. This win has to feel great for Trinity as they finally took back the conference title. DePauw has one last chance to qualify for the tournament but it would take a win over Wash U next weekend on the road. A great college match which will send Trinity (TX) back to the NCAA tournament.

UAA

In Wash U's last two victories over Emory they have swept the doubles and barely held on for a win. The way Emory has been playing, I felt the Bears may need another doubles sweep if they wanted to win. Pottish just owns Watts right now and Goodwin is untouchable at 2 singles. This is a huge advantage for Emory because Wash U basically needs to win 5 out of 7 matches and that's just not possible against a team as good as Emory. Emory got a shocking win at 1st doubles, which was the spot they lost the previous day. When Emory got the win at 3 doubles, you knew things weren't looking good for Wash U. Emory made the score 4-1 with quick wins at the top and Wash U closed the gap with a win at 3. All eyes turned to #4 singles, but Egan was able to complete a great comeback and win 7-5 in the 3rd to give Emory the UAA title after a one year hiatus. Emory also captured first sets at 5 and 6 singles so this match looked to be well on it's way to a 7-2 final score. A dominant performance from Emory and you could tell they really wanted this win. Wash U needs to regroup and get ready for DePauw this weekend. They hope to turn in a dominant performance before heading to NCAAs.

A Crucial Weekend

To date, I think this is the most important three day stretch of matches this season. Indoors has blockbuster matches, but this weekend has blockbuster matches as well as seasons on the line. There are 4 automatic bids to the tournament from major conferences on the line as well as two huge NESCAC clashes. We are also going to have two matches take place between top 7 teams. This is going to be a great weekend so let's take a look at the action.

I've had this match circled on my calendar since the beginning of the season and it's finally here. The CAC final between Salisbury and Mary Washington. Mary Wash holds a streak of 10 consecutive conference titles but this is probably the closest these two teams have ever been in both ability and ranking. The Eagles have had a terrible year but the one bright spot for them was a 7-2 win 3 weeks ago against Salisbury which knocked the Sea Gulls out of the top 20. Mary Washington is hosting this match but I'm sure both teams will be ready to play. After looking at the results from the last match, Salisbury knows where they need to improve. If Mary Wash can get ahead in doubles, I think they can cruise to victory. If Salisbury is up, I see this match coming down to the wire because another singles sweep by the Eagles is very unlikely. It's simple for both teams. Win and you go to the tournament or lose and your season is over. Live stats for the match will be at http://www.umweagles.com/sports/2010/4/23/MTEN_0423103939.aspx

Next on our list is a match taking place only a few hours away in Lexington, VA and it's a very similar situation. The season of both teams is on the line. Washington & Lee had a streak of 13 consecutive ODAC finals broken last year by their opponent, Hampden-Sydney. HSC is a pretty average team, but when they play W&L they become a much better team simply because of the rivalry. Whenever HSC plays a top 25 team they get trounced, but they always come to play against W&L and that's why this match will be great. Both teams have a natural dislike for the other and all of their matches come down to the wire. HSC should have 3 wins but they need to find those other 2 from the bottom of their singles lineup. I think W&L will manage to pull it out but this will be close as always.

Two NESCAC matches that I've had my eye on will be taking place this weekend. Home court traditionally helps a lot in NESCAC and both underdogs have the home court this weekend. On Saturday, #12 Williams looks to get their first quality win of the season against #13 Bowdoin. Bowdoin got crushed by Midd last weekend so they will be looking to rebound. This is close to do-or-die time for the Ephs as they need to start producing if they want to make the NCAA Tournament this year. Not making the tournament is unheard of for Williams tennis and unacceptable for a program filled with prized recruits. Bowdoin stands at 13 in the country and they've been doing good work all season without their star player and defending NCAA doubles finalist Oscar Pena. I think a win on Saturday would lock up the #5 spot in Pool C for Bowdoin. They would also avoid a 4-5 match in the first round of the NESCAC tournament. The second match takes place on Sunday with #8 Amherst traveling to take on Trinity (CT). Much like Williams, Trinity is in desperate need of a win and they will need to play their best tennis if they want to beat the Jeffs. Amherst is fresh off a 7-2 rout of Williams and Trinity hasn't done anything special this year. I think Trinity will come close but the Jeffs will be a little too deep. I'm going with the traditional powerhouses in both of these and taking Williams and Amherst to win.

In Arkansas, we have the SCAC tournament taking place and everyone has their eye on the potential final between #14 Trinity (TX) and #16 DePauw. Before we get to the final, DePauw will have to get past a tough Rhodes team, who's a real sleeper this year. I think Rhodes will challenge them, but DePauw should come out victorious. They have to be fresh for the biggest match of their season on Sunday so an extended match against Rhodes is not what they want. Despite some losses, I've been big on Trinity all season and I still am. This is a good and complete team. The thing that worries me about Trinity is that they haven't really been tested in over a month. Rhodes is a good team and a good win, but they aren't the quality of DePauw. On the other hand, DePauw is pretty fresh off the GLCA tournament where they battled Kenyon and Kalamazoo. I would expect DePauw to be more in form but I don't know if this is enough to trump Trinity's advantage in talent. Trinity is desperate to take back the conference title after DePauw has won it 3 consecutive years and I predict that Trinity will do just that this weekend.

The biggest event of the weekend will be the UAA tournament taking place in Pittsburgh. One can make an argument that the UAA is the strongest conference in the country this year with 3 teams in the top 7 in the country this year and a 4th at #15. The first semifinal on Saturday should have #2 Wash U playing against #15 Chicago. The Maroons gave Wash U all they could handle in an early season match but came up just short of what would have been the biggest win in the history of their program. Chicago has another chance to pull the upset but they won't have the element of surprise this time. The Bears have been playing well lately and Chicago hasn't seen any tough opponents in a while. I think Wash U should win in a convincing 8-1 or 7-2 victory. The other semifinal has #3 Emory taking on host and #7 Carnegie Mellon. CMU has been a pleasant surprise this year and many don't believe Emory is deserving of their #3 ranking. CMU matches up fairly well against the Eagles since depth is their strength and the Eagles weakness. I think CMU has the potential to take 3 of the singles, but that would mean they need to come up with 2 big wins in doubles. My guess is that Emory will win a close 6-3, but if CMU can jump on top in doubles this could get interesting. I'll have finals and 3-4 predictions on Saturday after the matches are set.

Weekend Recap: April 16-17

7 matches of note took place and 2 automatic bids from major conferences were awarded for the tournament. Starting with Saturday, the SCIAC final was a match that we expected between CMS and Cal Lu and a battle between 2 of the top 5 teams in the country. Both teams took care of business against respectable teams on Friday so I was looking forward to a competitive result. CMS did to CLU exactly what the Kingsmen did to Cruz earlier this season. Came out very hot and put the match out of reach after doubles. Cal Lu was able to take 4 first sets to make things interesting for a while but CMS closed quickly with wins at 2 and 6. The 9 point system strikes again, but at the same time, most teams have been victimized as well as benefitted from it. CLU lost 2 of the 3 spots they needed to win the match and this proved to be the difference. In all likelihood, these teams will see each other again in a few weeks for the 3rd and final time.

One the other side of the country, Middlebury put together it's most dominant performance to date absolutely crushing a tough Bowdoin team. They looked not only dominant in singles but also in doubles and after this weekend it makes me think once again that no one will come close to the Panthers this year. Bowdoin needs to regroup and get ready for an upcoming test against Williams that could make them close to a lock for the tournament. Midd looks tough but they will probably face their most stern test yet when they take on Williams and Amherst on back to back days in 2 weekends. Midd once again cemented their place as the country's top team.

Mary Wash had a convincing win against Hamden-Sydney. I believe the ODAC final is this weekend and HSC and W&L will face off for the automatic bid. Also, Mary Wash will host Salisbury on Friday for the right to the CAC automatic bid as well. It is possible that both of these teams seasons could be over a week from now, but it's also possible they could both be headed to the tournament.

A match that I didn't have on the schedule but probably should have was the USA South conference final between Newport and NC Wes. I think both teams needed a win to get in the tournament and I was scratching my head a little bit when Newport managed to win 2 of the doubles to take the lead. The problem for CNU just like it has been all season is that they aren't deep enough in singles. With the illness of Widing, they don't have enough players who can compete against the likes of top 15 teams. Their top guys have taken care of business but they haven't been getting wins anywhere else. This showed as they won I think 7 combined games in the bottom 4 singles spots which just doesn't get it done against a team the quality of NCW. Wesleyan takes their 2nd consecutive conference title and will be headed to the tournament.

Mary Wash tried to use the momentum of the last two matches to upset Hopkins but they were in trouble before the match even started because one of their best players, arguably their most valuable player, wasn't able to play due to cramps the day before. Probably a good call by their coach to rest him for the upcoming week. Mary Wash was able to get their lone win at the 1 doubles spot, but besides that Hopkins crushed them. A much needed win for Hopkins and the 2nd year in a row that they have destroyed Mary Wash. I have mixed feelings on both of these teams going forward and we will see if UMW is up to the challenge this week.

Kalamazoo has really been struggling lately and it looked like that would continue when Gustavus was able to jump on top of the Hornets with 2 doubles victories. Riley had to be pretty upset with his guys because Kzoo is playing nowhere near their potential right now. His speech between singles and doubles must have work because Kalamazoo came out and swept the singles, which was actually somewhat of a surprise for me. I think this was a closer 7-2 than the score, but Kzoo got the job done. Gustavus needs to focus on beating Carleton again so they can defend their conference title and make the tournament. Kzoo needs to find their game from early in the season.

The biggest match of the day was the heated rivalry between Amherst and Williams. Williams has yet to do anything of note this season and with a home match I expected a lot out of them in this match. They just haven't been producing in doubles and this continued as they struggled to win games at the top 3 spots. Amherst is obviously a strong team but if Williams wants to do anything on the national scene this year and even qualify for the tournament, they have got to pick up their doubles play because it's a joke right now. Credit to Herst who went into Williamstown and took care of business. Williams now faces an absolute must win against Bowdoin this weekend or their season could be over very soon. Much like Trinity (CT), the lack of an out of conference schedule is killing Williams right now and they could find themselves out of the top 15 next week if they don't bring it this weekend.

Update and a Few Previews

The ITA Rankings were released on Wednesday. Most of you are aware that I thought some mistakes were made in the last rankings, but I personally have no problems with this set of rankings. I still think Wash U and Emory are overranked, but I also didn't expect that to change from the last set of rankings. The one thing that is now confirmed that I previously suspected is that Chicago will have to get a big win at conference next weekend if they want to qualify for the NCAA tournament. It now gets to the time when rankings become important for NCAA seedings and every match is huge because your team may not get another chance.

Had a busy week and didn't get to make a post, but at the same time there hasn't been much action. The only notable match that took place this week was on Wednesday, when Kenyon d. Denison 8-1 with the one loss being Greenberg at #1 singles, which was quite a surprise. That could spell bad news for some lower ranked guys in the Central region if the Denison player now qualifies for NCAA Individuals.

Today, there will be 3 matches of note taking place. The first will be when Bowdoin travels south to take on #1 Middlebury. I don't think this will be a very competitive match because Middlebury has just been too tough this season, but Bowdoin could potentially squeeze out a win or two. I don't think an upset is a real consideration here. Secondly, we have an Atlantic South battle between Hampden-Sydney and Mary Washington. These are two teams that could both use a win heading into their conference tournament. I would think UMW will win with their depth in this one and it's possible that the Salisbury win got the Eagles back on track for this weekend. The biggest match on Saturday is the SCIAC championship between #4 CMS and #5 CLU. Of course a conference title is on the line, but more importantly than that I think hosting for NCAAs is also on the line and both of these teams love their home courts. Giuffrida lost to Spearman from Redlands yesterday which was a shocker since Spearman hasn't done much this season. I don't know if Giuffrida is suffering from some health problems or injuries, but his team needs 2 wins from him today if they want to beat the Stags. I'll stick with the same prediction as last time and say that CLU must win #1 doubles and both of the top 2 singles spots if they want to win this match.

Sunday also boasts 3 big matches with the first being another AS clash when Johns Hopkins looks to continue their mini win streak as they travel to Mary Washington for their annual match. This match is big for Hopkins not only for confidence, but they could potentially lose their regional top seed in NCAAs if they lose. The Eagles will most likely be coming off a big Saturday win and they will be hungry for an upset. My guess would be Hopkins is a little too strong at the bottom of the lineup, but I am on upset watch in this match because I don't think it will be as routine as some people think. If Mary Wash can get an edge in doubles, they can win. Confidence wise, I don't think JHU can afford to be upset heading into NCAAs. The 2nd match of note is Kalamazoo vs Gustavus at a neutral site. GAC has won this match in recent years but I have to call Kzoo the favorite tomorrow. The Hornets are another team that desperately need a win after their poor results lately. It is also to their advantage that the match is being played at a neutral site. I think Kzoo will have a little too much talent and I would expect a 6-3 victory for them. The biggest match on Sunday is between the 2 and 3 in the NESCAC and bitter rivals Amherst and Williams. Williams will be hosting and I'm sure they will have a nice crowd. This is a big match not only for bragging rights, but also NCAA seeding and hosting. Williams could make a splash in the top 10 if they win this match and if I'm Hopkins and Kenyon, I'm rooting for Amherst so they both can keep their regional top seed. Both of these teams are very deep in singles and I see the matches as pretty even. Amherst may have a slight edge due to experience but I think this will come down to doubles. Herst should be a bit too strong and I'm going to take them 5-4, but I'm not surprised if Williams wins. #12 in the country is unfamiliar territory for the Ephs so I'm sure they are looking to get back in the top 10.

Salisbury at Mary Washington Preview

Scott Burtzlaff, Salisbury

Mary Washington has won 10 straight conference titles, but in all of those years I don't think they've had a season quite as poor as this one. If Salisbury is ever going to end that streak, this is their year. The Sea Gulls come in ranked #14 in the country with an extended winning streak and Mary Wash has been losing and struggling with their confidence. As of right now, they may even be out of the top 30. On paper, these teams should be even, but Salisbury just seems to be more focused and confident. This hasn't been a true "rivalry" in past years, because I think Salisbury has only won 1 time in recent memory. These teams don't like each other very much and you can throw the rankings out the window when they play tomorrow because they don't matter. If Mary Wash is going to get up to play any team this season, it's the Sea Gulls. This is the one team they have to beat to salvage their season. Tomorrow's match will determine home court advantage for the conference final which could prove to be important.

Salisbury has been tough in doubles all year and Mary Wash has been decent. The doubles are evenly matched but you have to go with Salisbury at 1, and probably 3 as well. Mary Wash will need that #2 spot to stay in the match, they can't afford to be swept. Burtzlaff should win at 1, but after that things could really go either way. Mary Wash has struggled in the middle of the lineup where they should be strong. The matches are very difficult to predict, but I think Mary Wash could have the edge at 5 and 6. 3 and 4 however look to be going to Salisbury which would be enough for them to get the win. I'm going with 5-4 for Salisbury but I don't think it will come down to the last match.

Weekend Recap: March 26-28

Alex Dombos, Kalamazoo

7 matches of note that I'll be discussing in this post. To begin, I'll say I'm quite disappointed that the Hopkins-Chicago match was cancelled on Friday because it was a match I was looking forward to. Chicago doesn't have any tough matches until UAAs so they will hope that their Pool C competitors beat up on each other. Now, moving on to the Friday matches we had Trinity (CT) wrapping up their spring break at Pomona-Pitzer. I said this was a do or die match for both teams as far as NCAAs are concerned and the Bantams came out on top with an easy victory. If they are losing to Trinity (CT) in this fashion, I don't think the Hens are top 20 material. They showed promise early in the season but weren't able to keep up the level of the Mary Wash match. Another year where P-P will fall victim to the poor NCAA selection process. Trinity (CT) stayed alive, but just like last year, they now need a win over a top 3 NESCAC team (possibly more than 1), if they want to make the tournament.

The Midd-CMS match Friday had a lot on the line, most importantly the #1 ranking in the country. Midd continued their incredible play and came away with a fairly routine 7-2 victory. The Panthers will sit at #1 in the ITA rankings on Tuesday and they look to continue their domination in conference play. An undefeated regular season for Middlebury would certainly be an impressive feat. Their weaknesses were supposed to be the bottom of the lineup and doubles and these were both strengths on their trip. If you can rest your 3 and 4 and still win 4 singles against Redlands, you are a very good team. They look untouchable at this moment and if they continue this level, then they will be national champions. CMS needs to start preparing for the Cal Lu match in 2 weeks because this could determine the host institution for the NCAA Regional.

I didn't think Saturday would be all that competitive, but we had three matches won by a 5-4 score, including one of the biggest upsets of the season. Cruz was reeling entering their match with Redlands on Saturday and I felt the Bulldogs would be ready to go because they knew they needed a win like this to get back into the NCAA hunt. Cruz just dominated and got back on track. They won't see any D3 competition until the NCAA tournament, but we know they will be training hard. The Slugs know they have a lot of ground to make up if they want to come out of the West Regional playing on the road. As for Redlands, they just aren't the same team that they've been the past few seasons. They lost some key players and weren't able to recover. They aren't completely out of it yet but the future doesn't look bright this season. The other fairly lopsided match was Hopkins over Washington & Lee. I expected Hopkins to win easily and they did, once again securing their top 10 ranking. W&L needs to regroup after their in-conference loss and get ready to play HSC again in their conference tournament.

We also had three competitive matches Saturday. I expected Carnegie Mellon to crush Mary Washington, but they continue to struggle in doubles. I believe they have played 6 top 25 teams this year and they have been down 2-1 after doubles all 6 times. They've come back to win 3 of those times but losing doubles over and over will catch up with you. That being said, they dominated at the bottom of the singles lineup which is also Mary Wash's strength. I don't think the outcome was ever really in doubt despite the 5-4 score. Mary Wash has to be worried now after Salisbury's big win this weekend. I don't think the Eagles have another gear and at this moment it seems like they won't win their conference. The last two matches of note took place at Salisbury. Kalamazoo finished their spring break trip with two matches against Salisbury and Newport. I was following live stats for the morning match and Salisbury jumped out to an early doubles lead and never let up. They ended up winning 5-4 with #4 singles being the clincher when the match was tied 4-4. I don't know if I've said this before, but I hate results like this. It's a huge flaw of the 9 point system. Kalamazoo wins this match 5 years ago, but again that's just the way things are. This result was important not only for these teams, but it was felt across the country. I didn't take Salisbury seriously after they got crushed by a short-handed Bowdoin team, but I forgot that the Sea Gulls are always very tough on their home courts. Now we have Chicago and DePauw with losses to Kalamazoo, and therefore they should both move behind Bowdoin in the rankings. This pushes Chicago out of the tournament at the moment, even though they've been winning. Kalamazoo was looking really good, but I'm doubting them after this result. I think Salisbury could move into the top 15 on Tuesday. In one of the weirder results I've seen, Kzoo beat Newport 5-4 later in the day. Newport was without one of their top players and Kzoo was able to pull out a win to save themselves from another loss.

Thursday March 25th

Three matches of note taking place tomorrow and I'll just run through them quickly. To begin, Chicago looks to move their spring break trip record to 3-0 when they travel to Mary Washington tomorrow to take on the Eagles. Every match is important for the Maroons because NCAAs are constantly on the line. Chicago made a fairly drastic switch moving Stefanski to #1 and Zhang back to #2. No matter the order tomorrow, I think Chicago will win the top 2 spots. The Maroons match up well with the Eagles in my opinion and I'm expecting a fairly easy win for Chicago. Mary Wash's only chance is to take a 2-1 or 3-0 lead in doubles. The Eagles haven't shown much promise this year and Chicago has played solid but not great tennis during their first two spring break matches. The Maroons need to run through the match tomorrow to gain momentum for the big one against Hopkins.

Williams plays their first D3 match of the season in North Carolina against NC Wesleyan. NCW got a wake up call on Saturday when they were beaten badly by Hopkins, so they will be hungry to play good tennis tomorrow. Both teams are very deep in singles but I think Williams is a little bit stronger. They should get wins from Lebedoff and Sun and NCW will need to match those wins in the bottom spots which I don't know if they can do. Williams has been traditionally weak in doubles so this is a question mark for me. NCW swept Mary Wash in dubs then they were swept by Hopkins. They need to be on their A game in doubles if they want to have a chance tomorrow. I think if Williams leads after doubles, things are looking good for them to get a win. An upset is possible but I'm thinking Williams should win a close 6-3. Williams needs to get some out of conference wins on their resume.

The biggest match of the day is Cruz at CMS. Santa Cruz has lost two recent matches after winning Indoors so I'm not sure what type of mindset their team is in. CMS lost a surprise match to Amherst but recovered nicely against a strong Bowdoin team. If Santa Cruz loses tomorrow, we know for sure that they won't be hosting the West Regional for NCAAs. This could end up being very important. This match is a battle every year and I expect a match coming down to the wire tomorrow. In singles, I think things will be very even. 1 through 3 can both go either way, but I like CMS towards the bottom of the lineup. In doubles, Cruz should win 1 and the bottom 2 are unpredictable. CMS will get at least 1 on their homecourts, but I'm not encouraged after either team's doubles performances in their recent matches. I'm going with CMS in a nailbiter tomorrow but obviously this one can go either way.

Weekly Thoughts March 8-12

The week kicked off with UT-Tyler starting their season against a Pomona-Pitzer team that was fresh off a huge win against Mary Washington. The Hens were able to hang on for a 5-4 win in what was a very tight match. UT-Tyler got absolutely destroyed by Cal Lutheran later in the week, and this was the Kingsmen's only big match this week. I get the following info from these results. I think Pomona-Pitzer's win against Mary Wash was a bit of a fluke and my guess would be that they were pumped up on their home courts in doubles and the Eagles weren't adjusted to outdoor tennis. Mary Wash beat Redlands who went on to beat Trinity (TX) so I think the Eagles will be on the border of the top 20. Pomona-Pitzer probably sits between 20 and 25. UT-Tyler is a 25-30 team and they are slightly worse than Pomona-Pitzer. Cal Lutheran is looking very strong and I'm really look forward to their match with Trinity (TX) on Monday.

Carnegie Mellon had 3 big matches this week and they did well in my opinion. They dropped 2 of the doubles to Redlands but came back to take the match after dominating singles. Their second match was a loss to CMS. I was expecting a bit of a down year for the Stags this year but this certainly proved to be incorrect after two very impressive results from this week. The Stags are a national championship contender in my mind and these two results alone have made a believer out of me. It's just unfortunate they won't be hosting nationals again. In a match that i was really looking forward to, CMU beat Trinity (TX) 5-4. We don't have a box score at the moment but I'm sure it came down to the wire. These are two evenly matched teams but I think CMU proved they belong in the top 10 in the country.

Trinity (TX) didn't pass their first 3 tests, but they still have 2 more opportunities to redeem themselves. They got crushed by CMS and I am attributing their Redlands loss to just being tired after two difficult matches. I think they are a better team than Redlands but this could certainly hurt Trinity (TX)'s NCAA chances. Both of the SCAC big fish have had tough losses in the past week and we could see both of them out of the top 15 in the rankings. Trinity (TX) desperately needs a win against Cal Lu or Bowdoin to get their confidence back and more importantly stay alive Pool C.

In the only match of the week between top 10 teams, Wash U edged Kenyon 5-4. Apparently, the singles were played first and #1 doubles was ultimately the decider in the match. This was a very close contest and what i get from this result is Kenyon could potentially be a top 5 team. They can beat anyone on any given day. I was disappointed to see the wash U-NC Wesleyan match cancelled. We have to wait a bit longer to see how strong NCW is.