3 matches that I'm going to discuss plus a few other results of note. Cal Lutheran vs. Pomona-Pitzer was cancelled due to weather and a new date has not been picked for the match. Not a ton of key matches this weekend, but a few results worth mentioning. Chicago beat Gustavus 6-3 after falling behind 2-1 in doubles. The Maroons were able to pull out 2 come from behind 3-set singles wins to avoid the upset. Chicago still does have a fighting spirit and life when it comes to qualifying for the NCAA tournament. This morning, the same Gustavus team lost 6-3 to DePauw, winning 2 singles matches at the bottom of the lineup as well as 1st doubles. If I'm Gustavus, I have to be fairly happy with the fact that I played 2 top 20 teams pretty tough given how far the Gusties fell last year. With Carleton get smoked by Whitewater, I have to call GAC the favorite in the MIAC right now. The Gusties actually play Whitewater in 2 weeks and this will be a big match for them. As I expected, Chicago and DePauw had nearly identical results this weekend. The Tigers meet the Maroons on March 22 in an absolutely massive match with the loser being at a big disadvantage when it comes to qualifying for NCAAs.
Skidmore found their 2009 form and beat Vassar 7-2 in a fairly routine victory. If Skidmore keeps up the good work, they could be quite dangerous in May. However, Vassar will now want revenge in the conference tournament so this just adds more fuel to the fire in what should be a great conference final. The biggest match of the weekend had Kenyon defeating Carnegie Mellon 6-3 in a tight match. It's time to give credit where credit is due and say that Kenyon is playing great tennis so far and is definitely the most pleasant surprise for the month of February. The Lords have beaten 2 top 20 teams and there's no reason they will stop here. With the team they have, they are really playing well and this win should put them at 7 or 8 in the next ITA rankings. They are getting contributions from everywhere as Burgin looks to be one of the best #2's in the country and the Polster/Williams team is playing like they are top 10 in the nation in doubles. The Lords next tests will be in California where they will have a match against Whitman and potential matches with CMS and Trinity (TX). I said this before the year started, if Thielke can put this team in the Final 8, he deserves Coach of the Year. The way they are playing right now, this is a definite possibility. Looking at the other side of the match, this is far from a bad loss from CMU because they are still in great position and should be single digits in the rankings, but I'm now questioning my statement about them being as good as last year which I made last weekend. They first need to concern themselves with making the tournament, but they should be more concerned about getting a top seed in the regional. The good news is they may get to see Kenyon again in the GLCA final if they both make it. One thing that disappoints me is that I dubbed Bobby Mactaggart one of my Players to Watch, and he is almost single-handedly doing in his team right now. He's won 10 games in 4 singles matches and is 0-4 in doubles in D3 competition. I said that CMU won't get anywhere without him and I stick to that. Along with Ray Worley, he's not doing what he needs to be doing. Seems like Wichlin, Polster, Frey and Egan all got my message though, because they've had good starts to the spring.
Two other results of note from Case Western. They knocked off both Whitewater and Kalamazoo and should find themselves in the top 30 if not the top 25 in the next ITA rankings. Coach Wojtkowski is running a fantastic program in Cleveland and the Spartans are on the rise. This makes things very interesting in the UAA as there are now 6 probable ranked teams. Life is hard for CMU and Chicago as one of them will have to take on a fiery Case team and the other will have to take on the host Brandeis in the conference tournament 1st round. I could easily see an upset in 1 of those 2 matches and an NCAA berth could be on the line as well. Case isn't in action again until GLCAs, which I don't believe they've played before. They could enter as the 4th or 5th seed and see Denison in the quarters which would be interesting.
Showing posts with label Gustavus Adolphus. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gustavus Adolphus. Show all posts
Sunday, February 27, 2011
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Brief Weekend Preview Feb 25-27
Several matches are happening this weekend, but there are 4 which I'd like to mention because I think they are fairly significant. A team I haven't talked much about is Gustavus, and they will be in competitive D3 action for the first time this season when they take on Chicago. The Maroons are much more talented and should be able to win handily, but the Gusties have an opportunity to make a statement that they are back with a good showing. Chicago took care of a weak Kzoo team last weekend and now they face a similar foe in Gustavus. I expect the Gusties to be slightly stronger than they were last year now that Coach Valenti has a year under his belt, but I don't expect them to be any match for Chicago this weekend. Also note that Gustavus takes on DePauw Sunday, so looking at the results of those matches may allow us to compare the strength of Chicago and DePauw. Next we have a conference rivalry between Vassar and Skidmore. Although this match isn't all that important on the national scene, it's hugely important for these 2 teams as this rivalry runs very deep. The winner of this will get a leg up in the Liberty League and will most likely find themselves ranked in the next ITA poll. It's important for Skidmore to bounce back after a rough season last year, but equally as important for new Vassar coach John Cox to begin to establish a dynasty in the conference so he can build his program into a national power.
Third we have Cal Lutheran versus Pomona-Pitzer in the Kingsmen's first match without Nick Ballou. I'm interested to see how the Kingsmen respond in this. This is a huge match for PP to get a win on their Pool C resume and one they desperately need so they can potentially avoid the #4 seed in the conference tournament. They could use the confidence and this match would take them into the top 20 in the country. I'm not completely sure what to expect of Cal Lu from an effort standpoint, so we'll see how they fair. These 2 both played Brandeis in the past few days with Cal Lu w/Ballou winning 6-3 and PP winning 8-1 after a doubles sweep. I think this could be a big opportunity for the Hens and I expect them to come out with a win against a depleted and reeling CLU squad. The loser of this is in huge trouble when it comes to making NCAAs.
The main event this weekend is the next chapter in the rivalry between Carnegie Mellon and Kenyon. These 2 have played some great matches over the past 3 years and despite not being in the same conference or region, they have become great rivals with a mutual respect for each other. Kenyon defended their home court early in the season against Chicago, but this CMU team is much more focused and disciplined, meaning the Lords will need to raise their game to win. CMU certainly has the talent edge and they have the opportunity to really make a statement that they are a top 10 team who should be taken seriously this year. If they can be mentally tough and win in a hostile environment, they will have just about clinched an NCAA berth. This could potentially be a huge match for NCAA seeding and hosting, so even though its not a must win for either team, it's a result that we will come back to later in the season for sure. Kenyon seems to be very confident so far this season and they've had some quality wins, but this is by far their toughest D3 test of the spring. I think they need to play excellent doubles to win this match, but I like a more experienced CMU team to win a close one. If the Lords can weather the storm early and remain even deep into the match, they can win. This match is CMU's for the taking if they are focused and want it, and I think they leave Ohio with a huge win on Saturday.
Third we have Cal Lutheran versus Pomona-Pitzer in the Kingsmen's first match without Nick Ballou. I'm interested to see how the Kingsmen respond in this. This is a huge match for PP to get a win on their Pool C resume and one they desperately need so they can potentially avoid the #4 seed in the conference tournament. They could use the confidence and this match would take them into the top 20 in the country. I'm not completely sure what to expect of Cal Lu from an effort standpoint, so we'll see how they fair. These 2 both played Brandeis in the past few days with Cal Lu w/Ballou winning 6-3 and PP winning 8-1 after a doubles sweep. I think this could be a big opportunity for the Hens and I expect them to come out with a win against a depleted and reeling CLU squad. The loser of this is in huge trouble when it comes to making NCAAs.
The main event this weekend is the next chapter in the rivalry between Carnegie Mellon and Kenyon. These 2 have played some great matches over the past 3 years and despite not being in the same conference or region, they have become great rivals with a mutual respect for each other. Kenyon defended their home court early in the season against Chicago, but this CMU team is much more focused and disciplined, meaning the Lords will need to raise their game to win. CMU certainly has the talent edge and they have the opportunity to really make a statement that they are a top 10 team who should be taken seriously this year. If they can be mentally tough and win in a hostile environment, they will have just about clinched an NCAA berth. This could potentially be a huge match for NCAA seeding and hosting, so even though its not a must win for either team, it's a result that we will come back to later in the season for sure. Kenyon seems to be very confident so far this season and they've had some quality wins, but this is by far their toughest D3 test of the spring. I think they need to play excellent doubles to win this match, but I like a more experienced CMU team to win a close one. If the Lords can weather the storm early and remain even deep into the match, they can win. This match is CMU's for the taking if they are focused and want it, and I think they leave Ohio with a huge win on Saturday.
Monday, April 19, 2010
Weekend Recap: April 16-17
7 matches of note took place and 2 automatic bids from major conferences were awarded for the tournament. Starting with Saturday, the SCIAC final was a match that we expected between CMS and Cal Lu and a battle between 2 of the top 5 teams in the country. Both teams took care of business against respectable teams on Friday so I was looking forward to a competitive result. CMS did to CLU exactly what the Kingsmen did to Cruz earlier this season. Came out very hot and put the match out of reach after doubles. Cal Lu was able to take 4 first sets to make things interesting for a while but CMS closed quickly with wins at 2 and 6. The 9 point system strikes again, but at the same time, most teams have been victimized as well as benefitted from it. CLU lost 2 of the 3 spots they needed to win the match and this proved to be the difference. In all likelihood, these teams will see each other again in a few weeks for the 3rd and final time.
One the other side of the country, Middlebury put together it's most dominant performance to date absolutely crushing a tough Bowdoin team. They looked not only dominant in singles but also in doubles and after this weekend it makes me think once again that no one will come close to the Panthers this year. Bowdoin needs to regroup and get ready for an upcoming test against Williams that could make them close to a lock for the tournament. Midd looks tough but they will probably face their most stern test yet when they take on Williams and Amherst on back to back days in 2 weekends. Midd once again cemented their place as the country's top team.
Mary Wash had a convincing win against Hamden-Sydney. I believe the ODAC final is this weekend and HSC and W&L will face off for the automatic bid. Also, Mary Wash will host Salisbury on Friday for the right to the CAC automatic bid as well. It is possible that both of these teams seasons could be over a week from now, but it's also possible they could both be headed to the tournament.
A match that I didn't have on the schedule but probably should have was the USA South conference final between Newport and NC Wes. I think both teams needed a win to get in the tournament and I was scratching my head a little bit when Newport managed to win 2 of the doubles to take the lead. The problem for CNU just like it has been all season is that they aren't deep enough in singles. With the illness of Widing, they don't have enough players who can compete against the likes of top 15 teams. Their top guys have taken care of business but they haven't been getting wins anywhere else. This showed as they won I think 7 combined games in the bottom 4 singles spots which just doesn't get it done against a team the quality of NCW. Wesleyan takes their 2nd consecutive conference title and will be headed to the tournament.
Mary Wash tried to use the momentum of the last two matches to upset Hopkins but they were in trouble before the match even started because one of their best players, arguably their most valuable player, wasn't able to play due to cramps the day before. Probably a good call by their coach to rest him for the upcoming week. Mary Wash was able to get their lone win at the 1 doubles spot, but besides that Hopkins crushed them. A much needed win for Hopkins and the 2nd year in a row that they have destroyed Mary Wash. I have mixed feelings on both of these teams going forward and we will see if UMW is up to the challenge this week.
Kalamazoo has really been struggling lately and it looked like that would continue when Gustavus was able to jump on top of the Hornets with 2 doubles victories. Riley had to be pretty upset with his guys because Kzoo is playing nowhere near their potential right now. His speech between singles and doubles must have work because Kalamazoo came out and swept the singles, which was actually somewhat of a surprise for me. I think this was a closer 7-2 than the score, but Kzoo got the job done. Gustavus needs to focus on beating Carleton again so they can defend their conference title and make the tournament. Kzoo needs to find their game from early in the season.
The biggest match of the day was the heated rivalry between Amherst and Williams. Williams has yet to do anything of note this season and with a home match I expected a lot out of them in this match. They just haven't been producing in doubles and this continued as they struggled to win games at the top 3 spots. Amherst is obviously a strong team but if Williams wants to do anything on the national scene this year and even qualify for the tournament, they have got to pick up their doubles play because it's a joke right now. Credit to Herst who went into Williamstown and took care of business. Williams now faces an absolute must win against Bowdoin this weekend or their season could be over very soon. Much like Trinity (CT), the lack of an out of conference schedule is killing Williams right now and they could find themselves out of the top 15 next week if they don't bring it this weekend.
One the other side of the country, Middlebury put together it's most dominant performance to date absolutely crushing a tough Bowdoin team. They looked not only dominant in singles but also in doubles and after this weekend it makes me think once again that no one will come close to the Panthers this year. Bowdoin needs to regroup and get ready for an upcoming test against Williams that could make them close to a lock for the tournament. Midd looks tough but they will probably face their most stern test yet when they take on Williams and Amherst on back to back days in 2 weekends. Midd once again cemented their place as the country's top team.
Mary Wash had a convincing win against Hamden-Sydney. I believe the ODAC final is this weekend and HSC and W&L will face off for the automatic bid. Also, Mary Wash will host Salisbury on Friday for the right to the CAC automatic bid as well. It is possible that both of these teams seasons could be over a week from now, but it's also possible they could both be headed to the tournament.
A match that I didn't have on the schedule but probably should have was the USA South conference final between Newport and NC Wes. I think both teams needed a win to get in the tournament and I was scratching my head a little bit when Newport managed to win 2 of the doubles to take the lead. The problem for CNU just like it has been all season is that they aren't deep enough in singles. With the illness of Widing, they don't have enough players who can compete against the likes of top 15 teams. Their top guys have taken care of business but they haven't been getting wins anywhere else. This showed as they won I think 7 combined games in the bottom 4 singles spots which just doesn't get it done against a team the quality of NCW. Wesleyan takes their 2nd consecutive conference title and will be headed to the tournament.
Mary Wash tried to use the momentum of the last two matches to upset Hopkins but they were in trouble before the match even started because one of their best players, arguably their most valuable player, wasn't able to play due to cramps the day before. Probably a good call by their coach to rest him for the upcoming week. Mary Wash was able to get their lone win at the 1 doubles spot, but besides that Hopkins crushed them. A much needed win for Hopkins and the 2nd year in a row that they have destroyed Mary Wash. I have mixed feelings on both of these teams going forward and we will see if UMW is up to the challenge this week.
Kalamazoo has really been struggling lately and it looked like that would continue when Gustavus was able to jump on top of the Hornets with 2 doubles victories. Riley had to be pretty upset with his guys because Kzoo is playing nowhere near their potential right now. His speech between singles and doubles must have work because Kalamazoo came out and swept the singles, which was actually somewhat of a surprise for me. I think this was a closer 7-2 than the score, but Kzoo got the job done. Gustavus needs to focus on beating Carleton again so they can defend their conference title and make the tournament. Kzoo needs to find their game from early in the season.
The biggest match of the day was the heated rivalry between Amherst and Williams. Williams has yet to do anything of note this season and with a home match I expected a lot out of them in this match. They just haven't been producing in doubles and this continued as they struggled to win games at the top 3 spots. Amherst is obviously a strong team but if Williams wants to do anything on the national scene this year and even qualify for the tournament, they have got to pick up their doubles play because it's a joke right now. Credit to Herst who went into Williamstown and took care of business. Williams now faces an absolute must win against Bowdoin this weekend or their season could be over very soon. Much like Trinity (CT), the lack of an out of conference schedule is killing Williams right now and they could find themselves out of the top 15 next week if they don't bring it this weekend.
Saturday, April 17, 2010
Update and a Few Previews
The ITA Rankings were released on Wednesday. Most of you are aware that I thought some mistakes were made in the last rankings, but I personally have no problems with this set of rankings. I still think Wash U and Emory are overranked, but I also didn't expect that to change from the last set of rankings. The one thing that is now confirmed that I previously suspected is that Chicago will have to get a big win at conference next weekend if they want to qualify for the NCAA tournament. It now gets to the time when rankings become important for NCAA seedings and every match is huge because your team may not get another chance.
Had a busy week and didn't get to make a post, but at the same time there hasn't been much action. The only notable match that took place this week was on Wednesday, when Kenyon d. Denison 8-1 with the one loss being Greenberg at #1 singles, which was quite a surprise. That could spell bad news for some lower ranked guys in the Central region if the Denison player now qualifies for NCAA Individuals.
Today, there will be 3 matches of note taking place. The first will be when Bowdoin travels south to take on #1 Middlebury. I don't think this will be a very competitive match because Middlebury has just been too tough this season, but Bowdoin could potentially squeeze out a win or two. I don't think an upset is a real consideration here. Secondly, we have an Atlantic South battle between Hampden-Sydney and Mary Washington. These are two teams that could both use a win heading into their conference tournament. I would think UMW will win with their depth in this one and it's possible that the Salisbury win got the Eagles back on track for this weekend. The biggest match on Saturday is the SCIAC championship between #4 CMS and #5 CLU. Of course a conference title is on the line, but more importantly than that I think hosting for NCAAs is also on the line and both of these teams love their home courts. Giuffrida lost to Spearman from Redlands yesterday which was a shocker since Spearman hasn't done much this season. I don't know if Giuffrida is suffering from some health problems or injuries, but his team needs 2 wins from him today if they want to beat the Stags. I'll stick with the same prediction as last time and say that CLU must win #1 doubles and both of the top 2 singles spots if they want to win this match.
Sunday also boasts 3 big matches with the first being another AS clash when Johns Hopkins looks to continue their mini win streak as they travel to Mary Washington for their annual match. This match is big for Hopkins not only for confidence, but they could potentially lose their regional top seed in NCAAs if they lose. The Eagles will most likely be coming off a big Saturday win and they will be hungry for an upset. My guess would be Hopkins is a little too strong at the bottom of the lineup, but I am on upset watch in this match because I don't think it will be as routine as some people think. If Mary Wash can get an edge in doubles, they can win. Confidence wise, I don't think JHU can afford to be upset heading into NCAAs. The 2nd match of note is Kalamazoo vs Gustavus at a neutral site. GAC has won this match in recent years but I have to call Kzoo the favorite tomorrow. The Hornets are another team that desperately need a win after their poor results lately. It is also to their advantage that the match is being played at a neutral site. I think Kzoo will have a little too much talent and I would expect a 6-3 victory for them. The biggest match on Sunday is between the 2 and 3 in the NESCAC and bitter rivals Amherst and Williams. Williams will be hosting and I'm sure they will have a nice crowd. This is a big match not only for bragging rights, but also NCAA seeding and hosting. Williams could make a splash in the top 10 if they win this match and if I'm Hopkins and Kenyon, I'm rooting for Amherst so they both can keep their regional top seed. Both of these teams are very deep in singles and I see the matches as pretty even. Amherst may have a slight edge due to experience but I think this will come down to doubles. Herst should be a bit too strong and I'm going to take them 5-4, but I'm not surprised if Williams wins. #12 in the country is unfamiliar territory for the Ephs so I'm sure they are looking to get back in the top 10.
Had a busy week and didn't get to make a post, but at the same time there hasn't been much action. The only notable match that took place this week was on Wednesday, when Kenyon d. Denison 8-1 with the one loss being Greenberg at #1 singles, which was quite a surprise. That could spell bad news for some lower ranked guys in the Central region if the Denison player now qualifies for NCAA Individuals.
Today, there will be 3 matches of note taking place. The first will be when Bowdoin travels south to take on #1 Middlebury. I don't think this will be a very competitive match because Middlebury has just been too tough this season, but Bowdoin could potentially squeeze out a win or two. I don't think an upset is a real consideration here. Secondly, we have an Atlantic South battle between Hampden-Sydney and Mary Washington. These are two teams that could both use a win heading into their conference tournament. I would think UMW will win with their depth in this one and it's possible that the Salisbury win got the Eagles back on track for this weekend. The biggest match on Saturday is the SCIAC championship between #4 CMS and #5 CLU. Of course a conference title is on the line, but more importantly than that I think hosting for NCAAs is also on the line and both of these teams love their home courts. Giuffrida lost to Spearman from Redlands yesterday which was a shocker since Spearman hasn't done much this season. I don't know if Giuffrida is suffering from some health problems or injuries, but his team needs 2 wins from him today if they want to beat the Stags. I'll stick with the same prediction as last time and say that CLU must win #1 doubles and both of the top 2 singles spots if they want to win this match.
Sunday also boasts 3 big matches with the first being another AS clash when Johns Hopkins looks to continue their mini win streak as they travel to Mary Washington for their annual match. This match is big for Hopkins not only for confidence, but they could potentially lose their regional top seed in NCAAs if they lose. The Eagles will most likely be coming off a big Saturday win and they will be hungry for an upset. My guess would be Hopkins is a little too strong at the bottom of the lineup, but I am on upset watch in this match because I don't think it will be as routine as some people think. If Mary Wash can get an edge in doubles, they can win. Confidence wise, I don't think JHU can afford to be upset heading into NCAAs. The 2nd match of note is Kalamazoo vs Gustavus at a neutral site. GAC has won this match in recent years but I have to call Kzoo the favorite tomorrow. The Hornets are another team that desperately need a win after their poor results lately. It is also to their advantage that the match is being played at a neutral site. I think Kzoo will have a little too much talent and I would expect a 6-3 victory for them. The biggest match on Sunday is between the 2 and 3 in the NESCAC and bitter rivals Amherst and Williams. Williams will be hosting and I'm sure they will have a nice crowd. This is a big match not only for bragging rights, but also NCAA seeding and hosting. Williams could make a splash in the top 10 if they win this match and if I'm Hopkins and Kenyon, I'm rooting for Amherst so they both can keep their regional top seed. Both of these teams are very deep in singles and I see the matches as pretty even. Amherst may have a slight edge due to experience but I think this will come down to doubles. Herst should be a bit too strong and I'm going to take them 5-4, but I'm not surprised if Williams wins. #12 in the country is unfamiliar territory for the Ephs so I'm sure they are looking to get back in the top 10.
Monday, February 22, 2010
Team By Team Discussion from Indoors and Other Weekend Thoughts
Gustavus Adolphus - The Gusties did about as well as they could this weekend. If you told me they would get 5 points over 3 matches, I may not have believed you. I thought it would be more like 2 or 3. I think this is encouraging for them going forward when it comes to winning the conference. With a homecourt advantage I think they could sweep doubles against Carleton and also manage to find 2 singles wins. Gustavus could finish the year in the top 20 but they have work to do.
DePauw - The Tigers played great against Emory and wilted a bit after that loss. I expected them to take 2 of the doubles against Hopkins and when they didn't do that they were done. They have a huge weekend next weekend and we will really see what they are made of. They could get a really nice jump towards an Pool C NCAA Bid if they can knock off both Chicago and Kzoo on their homecourts. If I'm the Tigers I'm pretty happy with my weekend because we saw flashes of brilliance from them on Day 1.
Carnegie Mellon - I should have mentioned the word volatility in their season preview. I thought CMU would be a new team after their Fall Amherst win but they were the same old team this weekend. They let Cruz off the hook and weren't nearly as close as I thought they would be against Hopkins. They need to watch out for a tricky CNU team next Tuesday. Also, we will see what they learned from this weekend when they go to Cali. 3 top 15 teams out there. 0 wins = very overrated, 1 win = their typical 12-15 season, 2 wins = potential Elite 8 contender, All 3 wins = national championship contender. I'm not sure if that near upset of Cruz was a fluke or not.
Johns Hopkins - Yes they went 2-1, but the Day 1 match is the one they really needed for their confidence. They beat 2 good teams on Day 2, but they are also better than those teams. They have a month of down time from D3 play and their next match is against a very dangerous NCW team. This is a must win for Hopkins. I expected a lot more from them at the 3 through 5 singles positions. This is supposed to be their strength and the wins weren't coming. They need to start winning at these spots if they want to make a national title run. Doubles has room for improvement but they got better as the weekend progressed.
Kenyon - Maybe the most disappointed team after this weekend. A good showing against GAC, the doubles loss is expected against the fired up Gusties. The Cruz match is the one I thought they would run through. Their seniors let them down and this is the core of their team. If they are down 2-1 in doubles, their top 2 need to win or they are done. They just don't have the depth to match the other top 5 teams in my eyes. I still think this team can win a national title, I just expected a Finals appearance from them this weekend and they didn't produce.
Emory - Overall, a pretty shaky tournament from the Eagles. They could have lost to DePauw, but used their experience to grind through that one. The Eagles are always a national championship contender no matter what happens in the early portion of their season. They lost to their heated rival, but bounced back nicely against Kenyon. The good thing about this weekend from Emory is they will see all 3 of these teams again during their season so they will find out how they've progressed a team. I'm still searching for an update on Lopp because I think he can make a huge difference.
Wash U - An amazing first 2 days from the Bears followed by a poor finals performance. They were just flawless on Day 1 crushing a potential top 5 opponent and then followed it up by beating a very good Emory team with a doubles sweep and some good singles play by the bottom of their lineup. They showed they have the depth to compliment Watts at the top of the lineup. They play Kenyon in 3 weeks so we'll see if they learned from the Cruz match. I was expecting them to roll through the finals but it goes to show that even the top teams still need work.
Cruz - What can we say about these guys besides what a performance. They won 3 matches which they should have lost and took home another Indoor title. They funny thing is if they played Wash U every day for the next 10 days at a neutral site, I'll take the Bears in 8 of those. Just an amazing coaching job by Hansen and unbelievable leadership by Pybas and Vartabedian taking the team on their shoulders and leading them in all 3 matches. Even though they won the whole thing, as Hansen said in the match recap, a lot of work still needs to be done before they can defend their national title. A great 3 day performance, but I'm not a believer yet.
Besides the final of Indoors, the most surprising result for me is Kzoo over Chicago. The first thing that pops into my head is it's not even March and Chicago is already in a huge hole for NCAAs. Pool C is too deep to have losses like this, even if Kzoo ends up being a top 20 team. Chicago needs to rebound and beat DePauw next weekend or they can basically count themselves out of the tournament already. How do you go from losing 5-4 to the Indoors finalists to losing 7-2 to a team outside the top 20? I give Kzoo credit. They played a decent match against Kenyon and this match showed they are making great strides as they won every match easily. This is a top 20 team to me after this weekend and they could pull an upset this year when we are least expecting it.
CMS lost to an NAIA team 5-4. That same NAIA team was beaten by Cruz 8-1. This worries me a little bit. CMS isn't getting production from the middle of their lineup. They need to step up given the depth in the top 10 this year.
Cal Lu is a team to watch, as is CNU. Both have started well this season and both have top 20 potential if all their players play well. CLU got a good start with a win against Pomona-Pitzer on the road, winning 5 singles matches. CNU has been playing mostly D1 teams and they have a match that I'm really looking forward to this Sunday against Vassar.
DePauw - The Tigers played great against Emory and wilted a bit after that loss. I expected them to take 2 of the doubles against Hopkins and when they didn't do that they were done. They have a huge weekend next weekend and we will really see what they are made of. They could get a really nice jump towards an Pool C NCAA Bid if they can knock off both Chicago and Kzoo on their homecourts. If I'm the Tigers I'm pretty happy with my weekend because we saw flashes of brilliance from them on Day 1.
Carnegie Mellon - I should have mentioned the word volatility in their season preview. I thought CMU would be a new team after their Fall Amherst win but they were the same old team this weekend. They let Cruz off the hook and weren't nearly as close as I thought they would be against Hopkins. They need to watch out for a tricky CNU team next Tuesday. Also, we will see what they learned from this weekend when they go to Cali. 3 top 15 teams out there. 0 wins = very overrated, 1 win = their typical 12-15 season, 2 wins = potential Elite 8 contender, All 3 wins = national championship contender. I'm not sure if that near upset of Cruz was a fluke or not.
Johns Hopkins - Yes they went 2-1, but the Day 1 match is the one they really needed for their confidence. They beat 2 good teams on Day 2, but they are also better than those teams. They have a month of down time from D3 play and their next match is against a very dangerous NCW team. This is a must win for Hopkins. I expected a lot more from them at the 3 through 5 singles positions. This is supposed to be their strength and the wins weren't coming. They need to start winning at these spots if they want to make a national title run. Doubles has room for improvement but they got better as the weekend progressed.
Kenyon - Maybe the most disappointed team after this weekend. A good showing against GAC, the doubles loss is expected against the fired up Gusties. The Cruz match is the one I thought they would run through. Their seniors let them down and this is the core of their team. If they are down 2-1 in doubles, their top 2 need to win or they are done. They just don't have the depth to match the other top 5 teams in my eyes. I still think this team can win a national title, I just expected a Finals appearance from them this weekend and they didn't produce.
Emory - Overall, a pretty shaky tournament from the Eagles. They could have lost to DePauw, but used their experience to grind through that one. The Eagles are always a national championship contender no matter what happens in the early portion of their season. They lost to their heated rival, but bounced back nicely against Kenyon. The good thing about this weekend from Emory is they will see all 3 of these teams again during their season so they will find out how they've progressed a team. I'm still searching for an update on Lopp because I think he can make a huge difference.
Wash U - An amazing first 2 days from the Bears followed by a poor finals performance. They were just flawless on Day 1 crushing a potential top 5 opponent and then followed it up by beating a very good Emory team with a doubles sweep and some good singles play by the bottom of their lineup. They showed they have the depth to compliment Watts at the top of the lineup. They play Kenyon in 3 weeks so we'll see if they learned from the Cruz match. I was expecting them to roll through the finals but it goes to show that even the top teams still need work.
Cruz - What can we say about these guys besides what a performance. They won 3 matches which they should have lost and took home another Indoor title. They funny thing is if they played Wash U every day for the next 10 days at a neutral site, I'll take the Bears in 8 of those. Just an amazing coaching job by Hansen and unbelievable leadership by Pybas and Vartabedian taking the team on their shoulders and leading them in all 3 matches. Even though they won the whole thing, as Hansen said in the match recap, a lot of work still needs to be done before they can defend their national title. A great 3 day performance, but I'm not a believer yet.
Besides the final of Indoors, the most surprising result for me is Kzoo over Chicago. The first thing that pops into my head is it's not even March and Chicago is already in a huge hole for NCAAs. Pool C is too deep to have losses like this, even if Kzoo ends up being a top 20 team. Chicago needs to rebound and beat DePauw next weekend or they can basically count themselves out of the tournament already. How do you go from losing 5-4 to the Indoors finalists to losing 7-2 to a team outside the top 20? I give Kzoo credit. They played a decent match against Kenyon and this match showed they are making great strides as they won every match easily. This is a top 20 team to me after this weekend and they could pull an upset this year when we are least expecting it.
CMS lost to an NAIA team 5-4. That same NAIA team was beaten by Cruz 8-1. This worries me a little bit. CMS isn't getting production from the middle of their lineup. They need to step up given the depth in the top 10 this year.
Cal Lu is a team to watch, as is CNU. Both have started well this season and both have top 20 potential if all their players play well. CLU got a good start with a win against Pomona-Pitzer on the road, winning 5 singles matches. CNU has been playing mostly D1 teams and they have a match that I'm really looking forward to this Sunday against Vassar.
Indoors Recap and Thoughts
Since Gustavus was doing live stats and everyone was following, I decided to save my recap for the tournament and thoughts for after. Bear with me because this will be a pretty extensive post.
I'll start with Day 1. You all read my predictions so I had some idea of what I thought would happen. The first two matches were shockers to me, particularly in doubles. We have Wash U come out and destroy Hopkins with 8-4 across the board. I attribute part of this to Hopkins not playing a match before Indoors and the other part is the Bears just being ready to play after their rough weekend last weekend. I expected more out of Hopkins 2 team this weekend because this is a huge spot. Maldow/Wang won't win enough carry Hopkins in doubles and I believe their 3 team of doubles specialists could be broken down by two very good singles players. Wash U jumped to the early lead and the match wasn't really in doubt. Watts made a statement at 1 and 2 and 3 were close as expected with Wash U winning both to win the match. The bottom of the lineup was also a surprise. I expected Hopkins to be much more competitive at 4 and 5 and I think these are two very important spots for them going forward. The Bears were my favorite to win the tournament after Day 1. Emory took my advice and split up Goodwin and Pottish. This ended up backfiring for the Eagles and they found themselves almost down 3-0 in doubles. The absence of Lopp really hurts the Eagles in singles and doubles so when he is back Emory will be a much better team. Emory took top 2 as expected and managed to get a tough win at 4 to take the lead. Redmond clinched the match for the Eagles at 6. I think we knew that DePauw needed the doubles sweep if they were going to win. The afternoon matches brought what I expect was a large Gustie crowd to the Swanson Tennis Center creating an intense atmosphere. Gustavus used the crowd to hang with Kenyon in doubles and almost managed to come out on top 2-1 after the doubles. Like I expected, the good news ended there for Gustavus as Kenyon swept singles. We knew this would happen, Gustavus was just overmatched at this tournament by the other 7 teams. The other match was more interesting. #3 doubles was a huge spot for Cruz this weekend and I don't think many people realized that. This was supposed to be an iffy spot for the Slugs and they won handily on Friday giving the Slugs a 2-1 lead. CMU looked like they were coming back after taking first sets at 1 and 4. The Slugs always fight though and came back at both spots to wrap up the match 5-1 before CMU would win the final 3 matches which are pretty irrelevant in my opinion. It's 5-4 on the scoreboard but I don't think things were all that close. Looking back, CMU won 4 first sets in singles and they just weren't able to finish. I wasn't all that impressed with Cruz even though they got the first win.
The morning of Day 2 brought 2 results which were expected and don't need to be discussed all that much. Hopkins had a fairly routine win over DePauw, it was never really close and CMU destroyed the Gusties in doubles and this was never really close either. Without the crowd's energy, GAC wasn't able to produce the same level and only won 8 games in 3 matches. CMU won 5 of the singles as expected. Hopkins also had a good singles performance, but losses at 5 and 6 had to be alarming for them. The afternoon was where the real action was. Wash U came out firing again and won all 3 doubles. Emory mixed up their doubles teams putting their all-star combo back at 1, but this just didn't work out for them. The Bears were able to take a 3-0 lead and we thought Watts would be an automatic win at #1 so I was pretty sure the Bears would cruise in singles. About 90 mins later, Emory looked like they could win this match. They got a masterful performance from Pottish, and Egan redeemed himself after a poor Day 1 showing to make things 3-2. Here is the turning point. If Emory completes their comeback at #5, I think they win this match, but they weren't able to do so. Two freshmen were battling and Parizher came out on top to put the Bears in excellent position needing only 1 of the remaining 3 matches. Levy was able to clinch the win and send the Bears to the finals. I'll address doubles sweeps later in this post because I have some commentary on it. I think Wash U is the better team and I'm anxious to see these two play again after they both have a chance to mature as teams and particularly after Emory gets Lopp back. Going into the second semifinal, I thought the Lords would have no trouble with the Slugs. Hansen just works magic and gets his guys ready to go. They ran through 1 and 3 dubs. I actually expected the Slugs to win both of these spots but not with the ease that they did. Kenyon kept themselves in it with an expected win at 2 from what I still think is their best team, and should be their #1 team. Burgin looks to be one of the best freshmen in the country and he tied things up 2-2 at #5. The two huge matches that allowed the Slugs to win this match were 1 and 2. If I'm a betting man, I don't think Greenberg and Piskacek both lose. After winning those top two spots, the Slugs were in control. My hat goes off to Vartabedian for easily handling Piskacek. Clearly the MVP of the tournament in my eyes. The Slugs were able to get their 5th win and wrap up the match for their 2nd upset in as many days. Yes they were the #1 seed, but if you get right down to it, I don't think they were as talented as CMU or Kenyon, yet they managed to get wins in both. The night matches were both as expected for me. DePauw rested some guys but they were still able to beat Gustavus 6-3. This was the most competitive match of the tournament got GAC and it has to be tough for them to take 8th at their own tournament. I think it will be a long spring for Gustavus and possibly a short career for Valentini if he doesn't turn things around with the tradition that this program carries. DePauw played two good matches in their first two, so they got a much deserved win. They are a team that I wouldn't want to see later in the season. #3 doubles was the huge spot in the CMU-Hopkins battle. CMU needed to be up 2-1 if they wanted to win and they couldn't do so. Hopkins won at the top 2 spots as expected and after this we knew they would get at least 1 of the bottom 4. I'm looking forward to a match between these two later in the season, but I think Hopkins is the better team. I think they are both deserving of their top 10 rankings at this point and both have the potential to improve.
Day 3 brought two intriguing matches. In the 3rd-4th, I expected a pretty routine win from Emory and that's what happened. Kenyon matches up very poorly against Emory and after the doubles sweep, we knew things were over. The Lords really weren't close at any position. I think some team switching could be in order for the Lords and I expect to see some different doubles teams their next time out because what they are doing now just isn't working. Emory rebounded nicely from the day before. They got two good wins from the best 1-2 punch in the country to seal the match. This result was as expected. I was so sure that Wash U was going to destroy Cruz, and the opposite happens. UCSC played magnificent doubles, surrendering 11 games in 3 matches. Even after the doubles sweep, I still thought Wash U would win. If they could survive the top of the lineup and get 2 of 3 in the top 3 spots I thought the Bears would be well on their way to victory. Watts did his part making the score 3-1. Koening just came up huge for the Slugs and won another battle between freshmen to give the Slugs a 4-1 lead and put the match in the hands of Vartabedian. I want him on the court if I'm Bob Hansen after all the great things he has done. Vartabedian didn't disappoint and gave the Slugs their 3rd upset win and the National Indoor title.
I'm going to do a team by team discussion in the next few days but for now I just have some general thoughts. I don't know how else to say this, but I think the 9 point system has to be re-evaluated. 1 dubs is ahead, 2 dubs gets a fluke break and 3 dubs get a huge momentum burst. Boom, the match is over, don't even bother playing singles. Things can be decided in 10-15 minutes and I don't think it's fair. These teams are so evenly matched that it is so rare that a team will come out and win 5 singles matches. Mentally, it's nearly impossible to come out of an 0-3 hole.
I think we are in for another 2008 where anyone can beat anyone else. I got pretty much no feedback from the results this weekend about who's strong and who's not because they just didn't make any sense. Yes, Cruz won the tournament but on paper they are probably the 8th or 9th best team in the country. If the tournament is played again next weekend, they can easily lose 1st round. If you want my best teams in the country after this weekend, the answer is Middlebury and Amherst. Not that I wasn't impressed with the 8 teams this weekend, but there is no one that stood out, even Cruz. I think any of the top 5 finishers, and maybe even CMU, could have won the tournament. There is a lot of tennis left to be played and I think we are in for a very unpredictable and crazy season if this weekend is any indicator.
I'll start with Day 1. You all read my predictions so I had some idea of what I thought would happen. The first two matches were shockers to me, particularly in doubles. We have Wash U come out and destroy Hopkins with 8-4 across the board. I attribute part of this to Hopkins not playing a match before Indoors and the other part is the Bears just being ready to play after their rough weekend last weekend. I expected more out of Hopkins 2 team this weekend because this is a huge spot. Maldow/Wang won't win enough carry Hopkins in doubles and I believe their 3 team of doubles specialists could be broken down by two very good singles players. Wash U jumped to the early lead and the match wasn't really in doubt. Watts made a statement at 1 and 2 and 3 were close as expected with Wash U winning both to win the match. The bottom of the lineup was also a surprise. I expected Hopkins to be much more competitive at 4 and 5 and I think these are two very important spots for them going forward. The Bears were my favorite to win the tournament after Day 1. Emory took my advice and split up Goodwin and Pottish. This ended up backfiring for the Eagles and they found themselves almost down 3-0 in doubles. The absence of Lopp really hurts the Eagles in singles and doubles so when he is back Emory will be a much better team. Emory took top 2 as expected and managed to get a tough win at 4 to take the lead. Redmond clinched the match for the Eagles at 6. I think we knew that DePauw needed the doubles sweep if they were going to win. The afternoon matches brought what I expect was a large Gustie crowd to the Swanson Tennis Center creating an intense atmosphere. Gustavus used the crowd to hang with Kenyon in doubles and almost managed to come out on top 2-1 after the doubles. Like I expected, the good news ended there for Gustavus as Kenyon swept singles. We knew this would happen, Gustavus was just overmatched at this tournament by the other 7 teams. The other match was more interesting. #3 doubles was a huge spot for Cruz this weekend and I don't think many people realized that. This was supposed to be an iffy spot for the Slugs and they won handily on Friday giving the Slugs a 2-1 lead. CMU looked like they were coming back after taking first sets at 1 and 4. The Slugs always fight though and came back at both spots to wrap up the match 5-1 before CMU would win the final 3 matches which are pretty irrelevant in my opinion. It's 5-4 on the scoreboard but I don't think things were all that close. Looking back, CMU won 4 first sets in singles and they just weren't able to finish. I wasn't all that impressed with Cruz even though they got the first win.
The morning of Day 2 brought 2 results which were expected and don't need to be discussed all that much. Hopkins had a fairly routine win over DePauw, it was never really close and CMU destroyed the Gusties in doubles and this was never really close either. Without the crowd's energy, GAC wasn't able to produce the same level and only won 8 games in 3 matches. CMU won 5 of the singles as expected. Hopkins also had a good singles performance, but losses at 5 and 6 had to be alarming for them. The afternoon was where the real action was. Wash U came out firing again and won all 3 doubles. Emory mixed up their doubles teams putting their all-star combo back at 1, but this just didn't work out for them. The Bears were able to take a 3-0 lead and we thought Watts would be an automatic win at #1 so I was pretty sure the Bears would cruise in singles. About 90 mins later, Emory looked like they could win this match. They got a masterful performance from Pottish, and Egan redeemed himself after a poor Day 1 showing to make things 3-2. Here is the turning point. If Emory completes their comeback at #5, I think they win this match, but they weren't able to do so. Two freshmen were battling and Parizher came out on top to put the Bears in excellent position needing only 1 of the remaining 3 matches. Levy was able to clinch the win and send the Bears to the finals. I'll address doubles sweeps later in this post because I have some commentary on it. I think Wash U is the better team and I'm anxious to see these two play again after they both have a chance to mature as teams and particularly after Emory gets Lopp back. Going into the second semifinal, I thought the Lords would have no trouble with the Slugs. Hansen just works magic and gets his guys ready to go. They ran through 1 and 3 dubs. I actually expected the Slugs to win both of these spots but not with the ease that they did. Kenyon kept themselves in it with an expected win at 2 from what I still think is their best team, and should be their #1 team. Burgin looks to be one of the best freshmen in the country and he tied things up 2-2 at #5. The two huge matches that allowed the Slugs to win this match were 1 and 2. If I'm a betting man, I don't think Greenberg and Piskacek both lose. After winning those top two spots, the Slugs were in control. My hat goes off to Vartabedian for easily handling Piskacek. Clearly the MVP of the tournament in my eyes. The Slugs were able to get their 5th win and wrap up the match for their 2nd upset in as many days. Yes they were the #1 seed, but if you get right down to it, I don't think they were as talented as CMU or Kenyon, yet they managed to get wins in both. The night matches were both as expected for me. DePauw rested some guys but they were still able to beat Gustavus 6-3. This was the most competitive match of the tournament got GAC and it has to be tough for them to take 8th at their own tournament. I think it will be a long spring for Gustavus and possibly a short career for Valentini if he doesn't turn things around with the tradition that this program carries. DePauw played two good matches in their first two, so they got a much deserved win. They are a team that I wouldn't want to see later in the season. #3 doubles was the huge spot in the CMU-Hopkins battle. CMU needed to be up 2-1 if they wanted to win and they couldn't do so. Hopkins won at the top 2 spots as expected and after this we knew they would get at least 1 of the bottom 4. I'm looking forward to a match between these two later in the season, but I think Hopkins is the better team. I think they are both deserving of their top 10 rankings at this point and both have the potential to improve.
Day 3 brought two intriguing matches. In the 3rd-4th, I expected a pretty routine win from Emory and that's what happened. Kenyon matches up very poorly against Emory and after the doubles sweep, we knew things were over. The Lords really weren't close at any position. I think some team switching could be in order for the Lords and I expect to see some different doubles teams their next time out because what they are doing now just isn't working. Emory rebounded nicely from the day before. They got two good wins from the best 1-2 punch in the country to seal the match. This result was as expected. I was so sure that Wash U was going to destroy Cruz, and the opposite happens. UCSC played magnificent doubles, surrendering 11 games in 3 matches. Even after the doubles sweep, I still thought Wash U would win. If they could survive the top of the lineup and get 2 of 3 in the top 3 spots I thought the Bears would be well on their way to victory. Watts did his part making the score 3-1. Koening just came up huge for the Slugs and won another battle between freshmen to give the Slugs a 4-1 lead and put the match in the hands of Vartabedian. I want him on the court if I'm Bob Hansen after all the great things he has done. Vartabedian didn't disappoint and gave the Slugs their 3rd upset win and the National Indoor title.
I'm going to do a team by team discussion in the next few days but for now I just have some general thoughts. I don't know how else to say this, but I think the 9 point system has to be re-evaluated. 1 dubs is ahead, 2 dubs gets a fluke break and 3 dubs get a huge momentum burst. Boom, the match is over, don't even bother playing singles. Things can be decided in 10-15 minutes and I don't think it's fair. These teams are so evenly matched that it is so rare that a team will come out and win 5 singles matches. Mentally, it's nearly impossible to come out of an 0-3 hole.
I think we are in for another 2008 where anyone can beat anyone else. I got pretty much no feedback from the results this weekend about who's strong and who's not because they just didn't make any sense. Yes, Cruz won the tournament but on paper they are probably the 8th or 9th best team in the country. If the tournament is played again next weekend, they can easily lose 1st round. If you want my best teams in the country after this weekend, the answer is Middlebury and Amherst. Not that I wasn't impressed with the 8 teams this weekend, but there is no one that stood out, even Cruz. I think any of the top 5 finishers, and maybe even CMU, could have won the tournament. There is a lot of tennis left to be played and I think we are in for a very unpredictable and crazy season if this weekend is any indicator.
Monday, February 15, 2010
National Indoors Preview: #4 Kenyon vs #5 Gustavus Adolphus
Mike Greenberg, KenyonNormally, this is Gustavus' tournament. They are always a threat to win it, even when other teams clearly have stronger rosters than them. This year is the exception to that, especially since the courts were resurfaced after the '08 season. This evened the playing field quite a bit as we saw last year with GAC having a first round loss before recovering nicely for 5th place. The Gusties first result certainly isn't promising for their chances this weekend after beating UWEC 5-4 on their home courts. No amount of fans and no amount of energy or confidence will enable to Gustavus to win this match. They are just too weak this year and this is a true rebuilding time. Starting with doubles, if Gustavus is going to win anywhere, it has to be at #1. Kenyon switched their lineup last match and went with a Greenberg-Brody team at 1, so that's what I'm expecting to see this weekend. Vandenberg and someone should be good at #3. GAC doesn't have a chance at #2 and they have a chance at #3, but it's small. Because it's Indoors, I'll spot the Gusties a win and say Kenyon leads 2-1 after doubles. The good news for GAC ends there. Greenberg and Piskacek both win in straights and Polster, Burgin and Brody definitely win the bottom 3 spots. GAC may have a chance against Vandenberg at 3 but I doubt it. I'll take Kenyon 8-1 with a singles sweep, they may surrender 1 set.
Season Preview #32: Gustavus Adolphus
General Team Discussion - The once powerful Gusties have seen their program fall off in recent years due to an improving D3. 2010 may be one of the biggest years in their history as far as turning points are concerned. The legendary Coach Wilkinson has departed and he is replaced by his assistant. In the mean time, the Gusties lost their top 5 starters from a team that made its 10th straight NCAA quarterfinal appearance. They had a very poor fall and find themselves at #25 in the country with an inexperienced team and an inexperienced head coach. Wilk's secrets to success are still at Gustavus, but can the rookie head coach work his magic with this young team? In my time following college tennis, Gustavus has never been anywhere close to this weak. They host Indoors again, and this is often the tournament that makes their season. This year however, everything points to them finishing last and having to work hard to even beat Carleton for a MIAC title. They had a match Saturday and barely squeaked out a win against a UW-Eau Claire team who they traditionally trounce. I think they'll win the conference but I don't think they'll be at home for NCAAs this year.
Where They'll Win - GAC just doesn't have that superstar like they have in past years so they have to win with their depth this year. We know they have a large team and we also know they aren't going to produce wins at the top of the lineup against ranked teams. The other spot where Gustavus has to be strong is what they are best known for, their doubles. It's not a promising start to lose 2 of 3 dubs at home to UWEC, but if the Gusties want to have any chance against top 20 teams, it is imperative that they jump out to a lead in doubles.
Where They'll Lose - The top and middle of the lineup could be issues. They have a freshman at 1 in Donkena and he was a pretty good junior who could win a couple matches against good teams. After him, they struggle in the 2 and 3 spots and I don't think they have the players to win at those spots. Gustavus is used to excellence and if they want to compete with the top 15 in the country, they really have a lot of work to do.
Schedule Analysis - I think it would help their confidence if they could at least be competitive at Indoors. As is, I'm expecting them to get crushed three times. After Indoors, the next real tests will be Pomona-Pitzer, Redlands and CMS in California. It's important that Gustavus get a win in those three to help their confidence as well, because nationals is played outdoors. They have a regular season match against Carleton as well as a tough test against Kalamazoo before the conference tournament which they host. They have to beat Carleton in the finals to secure an NCAA bid.
Saturday, December 26, 2009
10 Things to Watch in 2010
10. Does Kenyon continue to plateau? Kenyon announced themselves as a national title contender two years ago but since then they have really plateaued and found it tough to break out of that 6-10 range in the rankings. Will their win against Amherst in the Fall help them with confidence in the Spring? They are the favorite to come out of their half of the Indoors bracket but this could be their last chance at glory for several years. They lose their Brody, Greenberg, Vandenberg core and I believe Piskacek is graduating as well. This may be Kenyon's last chance at a national title for many years to come.
9. NC Wesleyan in the top 15? Mary Wash out of the top 20? It sounds strange, but it's definitely possible. A potential shakeup in the Atlantic South. Mary Wash has their weakest team in several years and although they are pretty deep, they don't have any stars. That being said, the more I look at this team the more I think they could be dangerous come May. NC Wesleyan quietly had an excellent season last year and beat UMW in NCAAs. Their influx of foreign players and great work by Coach Modise have them listed as a team that nobody wants to play. They play a tougher schedule this season so we will see how they fair.
8. Trinity (TX) ends their year long meltdown The Tigers entered the 2008 SCAC tournament ranked #1 in the country. Since then they lost to an 18th ranked DePauw, lost in regionals, then followed it up by missing NCAAs in 2009. Their team is a year older now and they seem to have an outstanding Freshman in Delafuente. Can they make their way back into the top 10 in the country and end DePauw's 3 year streak of conference titles? I really like this team and I think they are very dangerous with 3 excellent players near the top of their lineup supplemented by above average doubles and a tough bottom.
7. Continued UAA Dominance? Wash U and Emory have entered the last 2 NCAA tournaments as the top 2 seeds. They really have controlled D3 the past two years and all eyes have been on them being on a collision course for the finals. While they were both derailed in the semis last year they were probably the two most talented teams. Emory has been to 8 straight final fours but I think this could be their weakest team in several years with the loss of Michael Goodwin. Pottish had a great fall but can he carry them? Will these two UAA powers meet again in the national finals? They are scheduled to play in the semis of Indoors.
6. A lot of very even teams this year 2 years ago we had upsets galore during the season. Last year things were a bit more predictable. This year I expect something in the middle, but to me there is no outstanding team who is unbeatable. I see a cutoff around #4 in the country but after that you could say the next 10-12 teams are evenly matched and could beat each other on any given day. I expect to see a lot of switching in the rankings from the preseason to the end of the year and I would be surprised if any one team comes out of this year undefeated.
5. JHU and CMU announce themselves on the national scene I thought these two were academic powerhouses? Both have announced themselves on the national scene moving into the top 10 in the preseason rankings. CMU beat Amherst in the fall and JHU has arguably the best 3-4-5 punch of anyone in the country. Both of these teams can knock off anyone on the right day and I don't think its a stretch to say they are both very legitimate Final 4 contenders. If both teams' players can conquer their schoolwork and put in long hours on the court we could potentially see one of these two making a deep run at nationals.
4. Gustavus doesn't win the MIAC I cannot remember the last time Gustavus was ranked outside the top 15 in the country, let alone the top 10. But 25th? 7 spots behind MIAC rival Carleton? This is crazy. But is it? Carleton has slowly built up a very strong team and Gustavus is in the definition of a rebuilding year with a very young team and a new coach replacing a legend. In my heart of hearts I still think Gustavus will find a way to win the conference at home and get the NCAA bid, but Carleton is certainly closing the gap and this could be their year. Coach Valentini needs to do some serious restructuring.
3. A down year for West powerhouses The Slugs and CMS both lost some valuable senior leadership. Cruz has a very young team and they have their hands full immediately at Indoors with CMU in a match that I frankly expect them to lose. That being said, Hansen is probably the best coach in the country and finds a way to win. CMS lost their 4-year superstar Larry Wang and although Erani is emerging as a top player, I don't know if he can carry them. While these should both be fixtures in the top 12, I see both teams finishing probably 5th at best. These two probably have harder training regimens than anyone in the country and they will need extra work to hang with the big boys this year.
2. 3 of the top 5 in the country from NESCAC? It's not a stretch. Amherst dug themselves into a hole this fall but when they return to full strength with Chafetz and Koenig, you could call them #1 in the country. Middlebury is pleasantly surprised with the return of Conrad Olson and the emergence of Andrew Peters, giving them clearly the strongest top 4 in the country in addition to the ITA doubles national champions. Williams is the weakest of the bunch but with a new coach and several strong freshman including potential superstar Felix Sun, they are a tough out. I expect Amherst and Midd in the top 4 in the country, but I think Williams would need some magic to break into the top 5.
1. Wash U returns to the winner's circle My preseason prediction for nationals. John Watts is a senior and he'e been the best player in D3 post-Seeberger. It's only fitting to see him go out a champion. Although they lost a strong senior class, the Bears have an excellent supporting cast after Watts. Stein/Woods are a dominant #1 doubles team and potentially devastating 2-3 punch in singles as well. Freshman Putterman looks like he will definitely be playing in the top 4 and should be very instrumental in Wash U's success. If they are weak anywhere it's the bottom of the lineup in singles and doubles. They will be tested immediately against an improved Chicago team followed by national title contender JHU in what should be the best Indoors 1st round in years.
Monday, April 20, 2009
Weekend Recap
First, I'll start off with the SCIAC tournament. Things really went as expected here. The one surprising result was a 5-4 win for Redlands against Cal Lu in the semis. Redlands seems as though they peaked at the wrong time this season. Their NCAA outlook looks grim. A pretty good season for both Cal Lu and Pomona-Pitzer. Both were strong teams who gave some national contenders a tough time. Look for both of those programs to improve over the next few years, especially P-P. CMS really took care of business in the finals and they look great going into their match with Santa Cruz. You have to like the Stags right now even though the match is on the Slugs homecourt. Definitely looking forward to that one in only a few weeks.
Three pretty important NESCAC matches took place this weekend, with Amherst and Williams asserting their dominance over the #4 and #5 NESCAC teams. It seems as though there is a clear divide between the top 3 and Bowdoin/Trinity (CT) this year. Bowdoin had a disappointing weekend, really getting crushed by Amherst. I'm really questioning Bowdoin right now. Sullivan hasn't been leading this team and they have been struggling. Williams and Amherst both look great and Trinity (CT) needs a win against Williams on Wednesday to make a splash in Pool C.
Another quick note is that Gustavus had a dominant win on the road against Kalamazoo. The Gusties have put themselves in a position to host an NCAA regional once again and unless some unforeseen circumstances occur, they should find themselves in the Elite 8 again.
The results of the weekend were from the UAA Championships. Both semifinals were pretty routine victories as expected, but there were two pretty big surprises in the championship and 3rd-4th matches. To start, I expected a real war between CMU and Chicago. CMU won 2 doubles and 3 easy singles matches to take this one very routinely over a Chicago team who needs to go back to the drawing board for next season. They are loaded with talent, but they haven't put all the pieces together yet. CMU ended well and they have to think their doubles really improved this season. This is a good win to bolster their NCAA resume. The upset of the year in my opinion occurred in the Championship match. Emory seemed pretty much unbeatable the whole year and even their 5-4 victories weren't really "close." Wash U came out and swept the doubles which really was a knockout blow because we knew Watts was an automatic at 1. A great fight by Emory to almost come back but the hole from doubles was just too big. Wash U is the new #1 team in the country heading into NCAAs.
Three pretty important NESCAC matches took place this weekend, with Amherst and Williams asserting their dominance over the #4 and #5 NESCAC teams. It seems as though there is a clear divide between the top 3 and Bowdoin/Trinity (CT) this year. Bowdoin had a disappointing weekend, really getting crushed by Amherst. I'm really questioning Bowdoin right now. Sullivan hasn't been leading this team and they have been struggling. Williams and Amherst both look great and Trinity (CT) needs a win against Williams on Wednesday to make a splash in Pool C.
Another quick note is that Gustavus had a dominant win on the road against Kalamazoo. The Gusties have put themselves in a position to host an NCAA regional once again and unless some unforeseen circumstances occur, they should find themselves in the Elite 8 again.
The results of the weekend were from the UAA Championships. Both semifinals were pretty routine victories as expected, but there were two pretty big surprises in the championship and 3rd-4th matches. To start, I expected a real war between CMU and Chicago. CMU won 2 doubles and 3 easy singles matches to take this one very routinely over a Chicago team who needs to go back to the drawing board for next season. They are loaded with talent, but they haven't put all the pieces together yet. CMU ended well and they have to think their doubles really improved this season. This is a good win to bolster their NCAA resume. The upset of the year in my opinion occurred in the Championship match. Emory seemed pretty much unbeatable the whole year and even their 5-4 victories weren't really "close." Wash U came out and swept the doubles which really was a knockout blow because we knew Watts was an automatic at 1. A great fight by Emory to almost come back but the hole from doubles was just too big. Wash U is the new #1 team in the country heading into NCAAs.
Friday, April 3, 2009
#8 Kenyon vs. #10 Gustavus Adolphus Match Preview
1. Greenberg/Vandenberg vs. Burdakin/Kauss
2. Brody/Stiles vs. Paukert/Tomasek
3. Piskacek/Polster vs. Hansen/Koppel
1. Mike Greenberg vs. John Kauss
2. Tomas Piskacek vs. Charlie Paukert
3. Jeremy Polster vs. Mike Burdakin
4. Will Vandenberg vs. Ben Tomasek
5. Daniel Becker vs. Patrick Clark
6. Josh Stiles vs. Ryan Hallsten
You have to think that Kenyon should have four easy wins before the match even starts. They should win at 2 singles as well as the 4 through 6 spots. The past results from Gustavus point to them not being able to stay with Kenyon in the bottom of the lineup. I think that Gustavus should be able to win at 3 as well as #1 doubles. I would also give them a slight edge at #2 doubles. The match should come down to #3 doubles and #1 singles and I have to give Kenyon both of those matches. Gustavus probably would need a doubles sweep to win this match. If Kenyon manages to steal #3 doubles which they should, they should be able to win 4 easy singles matches. I'm taking Kenyon in a 6-3 win.
2. Brody/Stiles vs. Paukert/Tomasek
3. Piskacek/Polster vs. Hansen/Koppel
1. Mike Greenberg vs. John Kauss
2. Tomas Piskacek vs. Charlie Paukert
3. Jeremy Polster vs. Mike Burdakin
4. Will Vandenberg vs. Ben Tomasek
5. Daniel Becker vs. Patrick Clark
6. Josh Stiles vs. Ryan Hallsten
You have to think that Kenyon should have four easy wins before the match even starts. They should win at 2 singles as well as the 4 through 6 spots. The past results from Gustavus point to them not being able to stay with Kenyon in the bottom of the lineup. I think that Gustavus should be able to win at 3 as well as #1 doubles. I would also give them a slight edge at #2 doubles. The match should come down to #3 doubles and #1 singles and I have to give Kenyon both of those matches. Gustavus probably would need a doubles sweep to win this match. If Kenyon manages to steal #3 doubles which they should, they should be able to win 4 easy singles matches. I'm taking Kenyon in a 6-3 win.
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
#8 Gustavus Adolphus at #5 UC Santa Cruz Match Preview
1. Paukert/Tomasek vs. Kamel/Vartabedian
2. Burdakin/Koppel vs. Gendelman/Liberty-Point
3. Clark/Hansen vs. Mark-Griffin/Ortiz
1. Charlie Paukert vs. Max Liberty-Point
2. Mike Burdakin vs. Jared Kamel
3. Ben Tomasek vs. Max Ortiz
4. Patrick Clark vs. Ilya Gendelman
5. Nick Hansen vs. Colin Mark-Griffin
6. Ryan Hallsten vs. Marc Vartabedian
Kauss didn't play today against Williams so I'm assuming he won't be magically recovered from whatever ailment he has soon enough to play in this match. That being said, without him, Gustavus doesn't stand a chance in this match. The match has moved outdoors which swings the advantage massively in Cruz's favor and GAC is without their star player who could give them 2 points in this match and move everyone down a spot on a not very deep GAC team. I would expect Gustavus to keep themselves in it with 1 doubles win, but after that it should be all Cruz. I am going to predict a singles sweep for Santa Cruz on their way to an 8-1 win. The only spots GAC could potentially win are 1, 2 and 3. After that they are just overmatched. Even if they manage to steal a singles match or two, it won't be enough to beat UCSC.
2. Burdakin/Koppel vs. Gendelman/Liberty-Point
3. Clark/Hansen vs. Mark-Griffin/Ortiz
1. Charlie Paukert vs. Max Liberty-Point
2. Mike Burdakin vs. Jared Kamel
3. Ben Tomasek vs. Max Ortiz
4. Patrick Clark vs. Ilya Gendelman
5. Nick Hansen vs. Colin Mark-Griffin
6. Ryan Hallsten vs. Marc Vartabedian
Kauss didn't play today against Williams so I'm assuming he won't be magically recovered from whatever ailment he has soon enough to play in this match. That being said, without him, Gustavus doesn't stand a chance in this match. The match has moved outdoors which swings the advantage massively in Cruz's favor and GAC is without their star player who could give them 2 points in this match and move everyone down a spot on a not very deep GAC team. I would expect Gustavus to keep themselves in it with 1 doubles win, but after that it should be all Cruz. I am going to predict a singles sweep for Santa Cruz on their way to an 8-1 win. The only spots GAC could potentially win are 1, 2 and 3. After that they are just overmatched. Even if they manage to steal a singles match or two, it won't be enough to beat UCSC.
Monday, February 23, 2009
Overall National Indoors Recap
We learned a lot of things this past weekend that cleared up a lot of suspense. Most importantly, we learned that Emory is the new #1 in the country with Wash U coming in as a close second. CMS solidified their position as the 3rd best team in the country with tough victories over Gustavus and Kenyon. I'm going to look at each team now and a few things we learned about them this past weekend.
Wash U - We learned that Wash U most likely will not fall prey to lesser teams than them. They showed that they can play great doubles against Kenyon, but they have some work to do if they want to beat Emory. They are no doubt the 2nd best team in the country right now and I think they could potentially take down Emory but the circumstances have to be perfect. Watts made a statement this weekend that he is the best player in the country.
Trinity(TX) - Trinity was beaten 9-0 in their first two matches by two very good teams. With their dominant win over Mary Wash, they showed that they did belong at this tournament and most of us were underestimating them. They have a very young team but they won't quit. They won't be tested again until early April against Tyler, but they earned themselves a top 12 ranking until someone else proves they are more deserving. Max Frey could be a future star in D3.
Santa Cruz - They have to be disappointed with their 6th place finish. They really didn't lose anyone from last year's team who finished 4th in the nation and Hansen usually has his guys ready to play. They immediately went down 5-0 to Gustavus and blew big leads on more than one occasion against Kenyon. They will have to do some work if they want to get back in the top 5, but the good news is they get another shot at Kenyon in just a few weeks and on their home courts.
Kenyon- Have to love the effort from these guys in the first round but things went downhill after that. With 2 of the top 5 players in the country, this team has high expectations for themselves. Arguably the best #2 doubles team in the country last year just didn't show up this weekend. If Kenyon can figure out doubles they are tough, but they really need to get better to compete with Wash U and Emory. A 5 or 6 ranking is appropriate for them at this moment in time.
Gustavus - Although they didn't win Indoors, I think Gustavus proved that they are still a very good team. I'd say Kauss is top 5 in the country and GAC doubles is still excellent. They went 8-1 on the weekend in doubles, but they need to improve the bottom of singles to break into the top 5. I'm thinking that this team will hover in the 7-10 range in the rankings for most of the season. Overall, I think Gustavus has to be pleased with their performance this weekend.
CMS - The bigger story than CMS getting 3rd this weekend is losing Starr for the season and possibly the rest of his college tennis career. CMS is very deep, but he is not an easily replaced player. A bright note is that Erani showed that he is one of the best freshmen in the country and he's ready to move up and win at #2 singles. With Lim playing, they may have had a shot at beating Emory. Some tough upcoming weeks will show us what the Stags are really made of.
Mary Washington - What a horrible weekend for the Eagles. They went 0-9 in doubles and James and Loden just didn't step up this weekend. I have no doubt that this team will turn things around, but I'm shocked with their lack of effort especially in the 7th/8th match. They should be beating Trinity(TX), they have almost their whole team back from last year. They have to use their upcoming California matches to re-establish themselves as a top 10 team. They certainly didn't show that this weekend.
Emory - Emory proved this weekend that they are clearly the best team in the country. They have very good doubles followed by excellent singles. I would like to see this team play the Slugs from 2 years ago. I think it will take a lot to derail this team from a national title and an undefeated D3 season. Chris Goodwin is one of the best players in the country and he and Michael are an unbeatable combo at 1. Just a great performance from Emory and they showed everyone what they are capable of.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
National Indoors Preview: #3 CMS vs. #10 Gustavus
1. Schils/Wang vs. Burdakin/Kauss
2. Starr/Wu vs. Paukert/Tomasek
3. Erani/MacColl vs. Hansen/Stickney
1. Lawrence Wang vs. John Kauss
2. Michael Starr vs. Mike Burdakin
3. Robbie Erani vs. Charlie Paukert
4. Russell Brockett vs. Kevin Stickney
5. Victor Chien vs. Ben Tomasek
6. Ronald Wu vs. Patrick Clark
The question in this match is how big of a role with home court advantage play. Gustavus is the defending champion at this event and their support on campus is really incredible. CMS not only has to play against GAC, but also the crowd, particularly in doubles. I would give the edge to Gustavus in doubles. They should win 1 against the defending national champions and I would expect them to get either 2 or 3. Gustavus has a shot at 1 and 2 singles, but after that they are done. CMS just has more depth and should win in straight sets in 4 through 6. What can't happen for CMS is to get swept in doubles because then Gustavus has the potential to win at both 1 and 2 and take this match. If CMS can manage to get 1 of the doubles points, they should be favorite going into singles. I'm going to say 5-4 for CMS in this match.
2. Starr/Wu vs. Paukert/Tomasek
3. Erani/MacColl vs. Hansen/Stickney
1. Lawrence Wang vs. John Kauss
2. Michael Starr vs. Mike Burdakin
3. Robbie Erani vs. Charlie Paukert
4. Russell Brockett vs. Kevin Stickney
5. Victor Chien vs. Ben Tomasek
6. Ronald Wu vs. Patrick Clark
The question in this match is how big of a role with home court advantage play. Gustavus is the defending champion at this event and their support on campus is really incredible. CMS not only has to play against GAC, but also the crowd, particularly in doubles. I would give the edge to Gustavus in doubles. They should win 1 against the defending national champions and I would expect them to get either 2 or 3. Gustavus has a shot at 1 and 2 singles, but after that they are done. CMS just has more depth and should win in straight sets in 4 through 6. What can't happen for CMS is to get swept in doubles because then Gustavus has the potential to win at both 1 and 2 and take this match. If CMS can manage to get 1 of the doubles points, they should be favorite going into singles. I'm going to say 5-4 for CMS in this match.
Monday, February 16, 2009
Brief Season Outlook
The Spring of 2008 was one of the crazier years we have seen in Division 3 Tennis. We had 6 different teams hold the #1 ranking at some point during the season and attempting to predict the outcome of matches last year was a lost cause. I would like to think that there will be more stability this upcoming Spring, but I think everyone secretly hopes that this is not the case.
Despite being national champions last year, Wash U did look vulnerable at some points during the season, as did almost every team. The Bears enter this season with a #1 ITA ranking, but I think most of the buzz entering this Spring is that Emory is really loaded and looking to dethrone their conquerors from last year. We then have the two California powerhouses who are also legitimate contenders, especially given the fact that CMS is hosting nationals in May. Unfortunately, barring a rule change, we won't have the opportunity to see both of those teams in the Elite 8.
The evenly matched NESCAC schools certainly can't be overlooked and with Bates improving this year, 6 NESCAC teams in the top 20 is certainly not out of the question, including 4 in the top 10. This is the last year for Steve Wilkinson, one of the best coaches in college tennis history, and he's looking to help the Gusties rebound from one of their more disappointing seasons in recent memory. Kenyon and Mary Washington also can't be forgotten. Kenyon has a new #2 player along with the defending national champion, and a deep team that is dangerous against anyone. One of the best recruiting class in the history of Mary Washington tennis will be looking to depart this year on a high note after an incredible upset last year in Regionals. We then have a host of other teams who have top 10 talent, but are still looking to break through into the single digits in the rankings. I'll do my best to follow all of these story lines and more between now and Mid-May and I hope all readers won't be hesitant to add their commentary on another great season.
Despite being national champions last year, Wash U did look vulnerable at some points during the season, as did almost every team. The Bears enter this season with a #1 ITA ranking, but I think most of the buzz entering this Spring is that Emory is really loaded and looking to dethrone their conquerors from last year. We then have the two California powerhouses who are also legitimate contenders, especially given the fact that CMS is hosting nationals in May. Unfortunately, barring a rule change, we won't have the opportunity to see both of those teams in the Elite 8.
The evenly matched NESCAC schools certainly can't be overlooked and with Bates improving this year, 6 NESCAC teams in the top 20 is certainly not out of the question, including 4 in the top 10. This is the last year for Steve Wilkinson, one of the best coaches in college tennis history, and he's looking to help the Gusties rebound from one of their more disappointing seasons in recent memory. Kenyon and Mary Washington also can't be forgotten. Kenyon has a new #2 player along with the defending national champion, and a deep team that is dangerous against anyone. One of the best recruiting class in the history of Mary Washington tennis will be looking to depart this year on a high note after an incredible upset last year in Regionals. We then have a host of other teams who have top 10 talent, but are still looking to break through into the single digits in the rankings. I'll do my best to follow all of these story lines and more between now and Mid-May and I hope all readers won't be hesitant to add their commentary on another great season.
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