Most years, this is a no brainer and Wash U cleans up easily. This year, it's the complete opposite of that. I think it's the hardest quarterfinal to predict actually just because I believe 8 of the 9 matches can really go either way. Watts should get a point for his team, but other than that it's tough. Wash U was my preseason pick to win the whole thing, but after Indoors their results haven't been spectacular. I'd be a lot more inclined to pick Wash U in this if they didn't just lose 2 of 3 doubles to Kalamazoo, who's been getting crushed in doubles in the late part of the season. CMU lost 6 total games to Kalamazoo in doubles when they played this season. The Bears won a close one against Kenyon and lost to Emory in the UAA final. They just haven't been what I expected them to be this season and I'm questioning if they can win this match. CMU on the other hand, has put together a solid resume. Post-Indoors, their only losses are to CMS and Emory and they have wins against Trinity (TX), Kenyon, Hopkins and several others. They should go into this match with nothing to lose, because after all the pressure is on Wash U. The results of these two teams haven't been all that different this year and I just feel like an upset is coming. I question Wash U right now whereas CMU has been nothing but solid since February.
Both teams have been so streaky in doubles this year. All 3 of the doubles really can go either way so they are so difficult to pick. It depends who comes out more ready to play and more fired up. The advantage for Wash U is they've played on this stage, but at the same time the pressure is on them to win this. I'm going with CMU to take 2 of the 3 doubles and I doubt one of the teams will pull off a sweep so this will go down to the wire in singles. Watts should win and I think Wash U could have an edge at 4 as well. CMU probably has an edge at 3. The rest of the spots can really go either way. Both teams have some streaky players so a lot depends upon who's playing their best tennis. I'm taking CMU in an incredibly close match, but Wash U has the potential to come out and end it quickly. These two teams are very even so I expect a 5-3 or 5-4 no matter who wins.
Saturday, May 22, 2010
Middlebury-NC Wesleyan Preview
This is the definition of a David and Goliath match. First we have NCW, who was counted out by many in their regional after losing their #1 singles player. They were even down 2-1 after doubles against Vassar in the round of 32. NCW then did the unthinkable as the tennisd3 blog said, and beat Hopkins' great singles lineup after being down 3-0. This is the first time this season in a big match that a team has come down from 3-0 after doubles. The advantage for NCW is that Middlebury doesn't really know what to expect from them. NCW's players weren't on the American junior circuit so they have the element of surprise going in their favor. In the other corner we have the powerhouse, Middlebury, making their 8th consecutive appearance in the Final 8 after an undefeated regular season. In my mind they are the overwhelming favorite to win the national title this year...if they are healthy. All indications point to Conrad Olson being ready to go for this match and because of that I think NCW is in trouble. NCW obviously has a ton of firepower and I admit I have underrated them all season, but Midd is just a different level from any team that NCW has seen this year. They cannot afford to get in a hole after doubles like they did in the regional.
Taking a look at the matches, NCW's best chance to get on the board is probably #3 doubles. On top of that, I think they also need to get lucky at #2 doubles because I don't see how their 1s have a chance against Thomson/Lee. In singles, I think it's hard to gauge how NC Wes will do. They clearly have a good chance at lines 2 and 5 and I also think they could have a chance at 1. The problem for NCW will be getting another point in singles. The Olson-Thomson combo at 3 and 4 has been incredible all year and I think these guys lead Midd to a win. To win this match, I think NCW needs to get 2 points in doubles and I don't know if they can do it. I'm taking Midd 5-1 but I think the singles wins will be very hard fought and won't come easily for the Panthers. NCW needs to believe they can win in singles and they need to have the fighting spirit that took them to the Hopkins win. An upset isn't impossible, but it is extremely unlikely.
Taking a look at the matches, NCW's best chance to get on the board is probably #3 doubles. On top of that, I think they also need to get lucky at #2 doubles because I don't see how their 1s have a chance against Thomson/Lee. In singles, I think it's hard to gauge how NC Wes will do. They clearly have a good chance at lines 2 and 5 and I also think they could have a chance at 1. The problem for NCW will be getting another point in singles. The Olson-Thomson combo at 3 and 4 has been incredible all year and I think these guys lead Midd to a win. To win this match, I think NCW needs to get 2 points in doubles and I don't know if they can do it. I'm taking Midd 5-1 but I think the singles wins will be very hard fought and won't come easily for the Panthers. NCW needs to believe they can win in singles and they need to have the fighting spirit that took them to the Hopkins win. An upset isn't impossible, but it is extremely unlikely.
Friday, May 21, 2010
Tennisrecruiting.net Article
I will have an article on Tennisrecruiting.net about the Final 8 next Tuesday.
Also, due to popular demand, Tennisrecruiting.net will have recruiting class rankings for Division 3 this year. Coaches please make sure you report all of your recruits to the site so we can have an accurate list. Players, if you know any recruits who aren't listed, please tell them to do so.
Also, due to popular demand, Tennisrecruiting.net will have recruiting class rankings for Division 3 this year. Coaches please make sure you report all of your recruits to the site so we can have an accurate list. Players, if you know any recruits who aren't listed, please tell them to do so.
Monday, May 17, 2010
Regionals Commentary
Middlebury
Just like the preview, not a ton I have to say here. Midd looked a bit shaky in singles which they can't afford to do at nationals. Against MIT in the regional final, Midd was losing 1 match and 2 more were even early in the 3rd set. It could have ended up being a 6-3. This against a team who lost 3 singles matches to Stevens the day before, not to mention a comeback win. The good news for Midd is they were dominant in doubles dropping only 6 games to MIT in the regional final. If Midd's doubles are on at nationals, they will be so tough to beat. A solid season for the Engineers who should finish the season ranked. Midd is still the favorite to win the whole thing with its biggest competitors probably being Emory and CMS at the moment. Despite a little bit of trouble in the regional final, Midd moves on to the Elite 8 as expected
Washington & Lee
Probably the least competitive of all the regionals this past weekend. The round of 32 match between W&L and TCNJ is worth discussing. TCNJ is noted for playing tough doubles and they took the top 2 spots from the Generals on the road to have a lead going into singles. W&L's singles have been up and down this year so I thought TCNJ had a pretty good chance to win. It seems as though Hayden White got injured as he retired while he was leading midway through the 1st set. He was also beaten 0 and 0 by Pottish the following day. If he doesn't get injured, I would suspect the Generals would have ended up sweeping the singles. A great performance by W&L in singles pulling out many close sets. I have to think that the home court advantage probably helped and propelled the Generals to a win. I'm impressed with the attendance of 127 for the regional final between W&L and Emory. You had to be crazy to pick against Emory in this match, but W&L certainly pushed the Eagles in doubles. An interesting thing to note is that Emory pulled Pottish from #3 doubles for this match and played Simonson instead. I wonder if this will carry over to nationals but it seemed to not work all that well resulting on only a 9-8 victory. 2 doubles was a spot where I thought W&L may have a chance but Emory pulled out a close one there too. There were some close matches in the bottom of the lineup but I would suspect the Emory players were semi-tanking just waiting for their 2 studs to win at the top and it worked. Emory drops only 2 games in the singles matches on record and moves through to the Elite 8 very comfortably.
CMS
With the exception of the Hopkins region, probably the most drama here. CMS took care of Whitman comfortably. The only slip up for the Stags was at #3 singles where Eric MacColl was trailing in his match. I thought that would be a huge spot for the Stags against Cruz the following day so that had to be a little alarming to see for CMS. Other than that, CMS took care of business against Whitman and got to sit back and watch as #4 and #6 in the country battle it out for a spot in the Sweet 16. I noted before the weekend that CLU's early season momentum had slowed down a bit. Cruz also always brings their best stuff at the end of the season after so much intense training. I talked about the big 3 matches in this one. #1 doubles and the top 2 singles spots. Whoever won that little best of 3 series was going to win this match. Cruz went 3-0 in those spots and won with a very comfortable 5-2 win. I actually expected this to be much closer and I even picked CLU to win. Hansen once again proved that he always has his guys ready to go. Once CLU got down in doubles, I knew it would be hard for them to win. And it doesn't help when your two superstars both get bageled in their 1st set. The Kingsmen were just done after this. Hopefully Giuffrida and Ballou will both bring their A game for individuals because Pybas and Vartabedian just owned them. So once again, we had a Stags-Slugs final. These two have alternated qualifying for the Final 8 over the past few years and it was CMS turn this time. Despite the rise of CLU this year, the usual suspects dominate the West.
I often make a big deal about experience. Having played in NCAAs before helps. Look at the doubles in the regional final. According to the CMS press release, after the 8-0 win by Cruz at 1, Cruz led 6-4 at 3 and had 5 match points at 2. CMS managed to get both points. Guys like Eric MacColl, Russell Brockett and Mikey Lim have experience, and that's my difference maker in this match. They were able to step up against the inexperienced Cruz teams and get those 2 huge points for their team. This allowed their depth to take control and it got them a win. Pybas was impressive again and has to be the MVP of this regional, but I had a feeling CMS would be too deep. They won at 4, 5 and 6 to clinch the match. They come into this match with probably the best 5 in the country in Alex Johnson and he could be very valuable in their run to a national title. CMS used their experience to win this match and it's as simple as that. The Stags now look to capture the national title that has eluded them. I will admit I vastly underrated CMS during the preseason but they are as good as anyone this year. I'm looking forward to a potential CMS-Emory semi which is a match I've wanted to see all season. A great regional weekend after a great season for CMS.
Wash U
I underestimated Kalamazoo and overestimated Luther. I thought Luther would have some of the NCAA magic that they had last year, but they got rolled by Kalamazoo who played like a top 15 team this weekend. The Hornets found their early season form that had them up to 13 in the country and gave Wash U quite a scare. First looking at the Round of 32, Kalamazoo was just the more talented team and this showed. I said in the preview that Luther had to be up after doubles if they wanted to win because they simply weren't as talented as their opponents. I'm very surprised by the 8-1 score at #3 doubles. Luther has had some good results from the top of their lineup this year but they just didn't show up on Saturday and Kalamazoo probably would have swept singles for an 8-1 win in this as they were winning easily in every match. Kudos to Coach Riley who really had his guys ready to play both days. Wash U had to take note of Kalamazoo's dominant win but it must not have clicked until after the doubles on Sunday.
In one of the most surprising turn of events of the weekend, Kalamazoo found the magic they had in early March and stole 2 and 3 doubles from Wash U. The Bears had to be sweating a bit after this but Follmer was able to get his guys to regroup and back on track for singles. It looks like Kzoo was going to win 3, so this would have ended in a 6-3 win, but instead Wash U finished at 5-2. Watts obviously wasn't going to lose, and I thought the bottom of Kalamazoo's lineup would have to come up big for them. Parizher didn't play on Sunday, but instead freshman Kareem Farah got the clinching win for Wash U. Adam Putterman had a bad weekend and Wash U is really going to need him if they want to win a national title. The Bears have to be questioning themselves after this match, but if you remember the last time Wash U had a questionable result in February, the bounced back the next match and beat Hopkins 8-1. The Bears survived which is what matters and it's probably good for them that they were tested. They can't have a repeat performance of Sunday's doubles if they want to beat CMU.
Carnegie Mellon
This region produced the biggest round of 32 upset in the tournament when unranked UT-Tyler beat 18th ranked Mary Washington even after losing 2 of the 3 doubles. I said in the preview that this was possible but unlikely and Tyler managed to pull it off. Funny that they came into the tournament last year ranked top 20 in the country and lost to Luther and now they are the ones pulling the upset. A great win for Tyler and this will almost definitely move them into the year-end top 30 which is a good accomplishment for a team this young. A fitting end to a poor season for Mary Wash but I expect this team to come back and be top 20 again next year if not better. They have good development in Mary Wash, but inexperience caught up with the Eagles this year. I thought they would be able to hang with CMU, but the Tartans had to breath a sigh of relief playing an unranked team at home for a spot in the Final 8.
The regional final didn't bring much drama as CMU ran through the top 2 doubles spots. Tyler was able to stay in it with a tiebreak win at #3. #3 could be a big spot for CMU against Wash U and a potential must win spot. CMU's doubles has been solid recently and I think a 2-1 lead against Wash U is a must if they want to advance to the Final 4. 3 through 5 singles have been great spots for CMU all season and Tyler was just overmatched. Tyler had leads at 1 and 6 so this could have ended up looking like a respectable score, but CMU was just a little too determined and a little too talented. Overall a great weekend for both teams. Tyler has to be very pleased with their performance and their upset and CMU qualifies for their first Elite 8 in school history. They also have a great chance to win against Wash U and this is a match I'm really looking forward to between two teams with some of the best singles lineups in the country.
Whitewater
To begin, I'll discuss the round of 32 between Carleton and Trinity (TX). I was really doubting the Tigers after this match due to the fact that both 1 and 2 doubles went to tiebreakers. If Trinity wanted to beat Kenyon in doubles they needed these spots to be sharp. Trinity used their advantage in talent to get through this match 5-0 having no trouble in singles. Kenyon easily took out host Whitewater setting up a regional final that I was really looking forward to. I said in the preview that it was a must for Trinity to get up in doubles and they did so with easy wins at 2 and 3. Delafuente/Frey is arguably the best 2 doubles team in the country at the moment and Carroll/Murray is one of the best 3 teams. Both of these teams came up huge for Trinity giving them an early 2-0 lead and they will need to do it again in the Final 8. You had to expect Kenyon's seniors to step up and keep them in the match and they did just that winning 1 doubles in a tiebreaker. The Cocanougher/Kowal team hasn't been as dominant as the past 2 years and Kenyon took advantage of it. I expected that win for Kenyon to give them momentum entering singles but Trinity showed resiliency and got on the board with an expected win at 3 singles. They also had first sets at 2, 4 and 6. Piskacek came storming back for Kenyon but at the same time the Tigers won at 6 giving them a 4-1 lead as Greenberg won as well making it 4-2. Kenyon won the first set at 5 and Piskacek split so the momentum was turning, but Kowal from Trinity who clinched the conference for them, was able to win his 2nd set tiebreaker to end the match. An amazing win for Trinity and a much needed one for their program. They are still young and will come back as a national title contender next year. As of now, they know they have nothing to lose against CMS after getting blasted 9-0 two months ago. I am very sure this won't happen again but Trinity's doubles needs to come up huge if they want to win. A disappointing end to a season that didn't meet expectations for Kenyon. The Lords graduate 4 great seniors after what has been a magical last 3 years. This program will enter rebuilding mode and hopefully we see them back on the national scene very soon.
Amherst
The only thing to really discuss here is the Amherst-Williams match and I said beforehand that you can probably flip a coin to determine the winner. Amherst has slightly more talent plus experience from last year playing in a big match and the home court. I predicted the 2 and 3 doubles would be split and this time around these 2 went to the teams I expected to win. Williams carried their 2-1 doubles lead to a victory last match and this time Amherst was able to get that huge point at 1 doubles which will be absolutely crucial for them against Emory. Williams also dominated 3 through 5 singles against Amherst in the previous meeting and Waterman was able to come up with a big win for Herst. It's amazing that all 6 matches went to 3 sets and Amherst was able to take 5 first sets. A great comeback by the Ephs but Herst was just a little too much with their 1-2 combo of Chafetz and Kahan. I think Williams needed the win at 2 with a senior-freshman match, but a great win by Kahan to give his team the win. Herst also looked on their way to at least 1 more win. Williams has to be disappointed with their poor luck draw-wise and they are also not used to missing the Final 8. A good recovery near the end of the season by Williams but this season just didn't live up to their standards that they are accustomed to. A decent start for a first-year head coach but Williams has a lot of work to do to catch up with Herst and Midd. The recruits are clearly there for Williams but they need to pick up the development. Herst moves on to take on Emory is the Elite 8 match that I'm most looking forward to. Most people are counting them out but I think they have a great chance to win especially given their unexpected performance in the Elite 8 last year.
Johns Hopkins
Not only did NC Wesleyan beat Hopkins, but they also had to battle to beat Vassar. The results for NCW after this weekend are shocking, but impressive at the same time. Starting with the first match, Vassar did what they needed to do in doubles. NCW had a lead at the 2 spot and Vassar came storming back before losing 9-7. They did however, take a 2-1 lead going into singles which is something they needed. I said that Vassar didn't have the depth to match NC Wes and this proved to be correct as the Bishops ran off easy wins at 4 and 5. The swing spot here was the win at 2 for NCW. Rumyantsev after this weekend has to be considered one of the best 2's in the country and possibly the most underrated player in the whole country. He had an outstanding performance for his team this weekend. NCW was able to get 6 as expected and close this match with a 5-2 score. A good effort by Vassar but it's clear they just weren't deep enough to hang with the best in the country this year.
This regional final is arguably the most amazing result of the season. Let's take a look at what happened. On March 20th, these two teams played at a neutral site with Hopkins winning 8-1 after a doubles sweep. Also, NCW had their #1 player in that match. Now, they were playing with a Hopkins crowd of 100, NCW didn't have their #1 player and Hopkins swept doubles again. I can't remember a key match this entire season where a team came back from 3-0. A betting man would say Hopkins wins this match. Yet, NCW must have received quite the pep talk between singles and doubles because they started to mount their comeback. They took all 6 first sets and Hopkins knew they were in for a battle. Not too long after, NCW led 4-3 with Hop gaining splits at 1 and 6, two seniors for the Blue Jays. At this point it was a coinflip but NCW just dug deeper in this match and managed to get that win. An unbelievable performance from the Bishops and apologies to them because I counted them out in this match. You have to call Hopkins the biggest disappointment of this season. I had them at pre-season #5 and they will probably finish around 12 or 13. They have such a talented roster but they can't seem to put together a good NCAA run. NCW for the 2nd year in a row has brought their best stuff for NCAAs. Middlebury is a completely different level than Hopkins but NCW will certainly give them a hard time. They need to work on doubles and if they are playing flawlessly, an upset is an outside possibility.
Just like the preview, not a ton I have to say here. Midd looked a bit shaky in singles which they can't afford to do at nationals. Against MIT in the regional final, Midd was losing 1 match and 2 more were even early in the 3rd set. It could have ended up being a 6-3. This against a team who lost 3 singles matches to Stevens the day before, not to mention a comeback win. The good news for Midd is they were dominant in doubles dropping only 6 games to MIT in the regional final. If Midd's doubles are on at nationals, they will be so tough to beat. A solid season for the Engineers who should finish the season ranked. Midd is still the favorite to win the whole thing with its biggest competitors probably being Emory and CMS at the moment. Despite a little bit of trouble in the regional final, Midd moves on to the Elite 8 as expected
Washington & Lee
Probably the least competitive of all the regionals this past weekend. The round of 32 match between W&L and TCNJ is worth discussing. TCNJ is noted for playing tough doubles and they took the top 2 spots from the Generals on the road to have a lead going into singles. W&L's singles have been up and down this year so I thought TCNJ had a pretty good chance to win. It seems as though Hayden White got injured as he retired while he was leading midway through the 1st set. He was also beaten 0 and 0 by Pottish the following day. If he doesn't get injured, I would suspect the Generals would have ended up sweeping the singles. A great performance by W&L in singles pulling out many close sets. I have to think that the home court advantage probably helped and propelled the Generals to a win. I'm impressed with the attendance of 127 for the regional final between W&L and Emory. You had to be crazy to pick against Emory in this match, but W&L certainly pushed the Eagles in doubles. An interesting thing to note is that Emory pulled Pottish from #3 doubles for this match and played Simonson instead. I wonder if this will carry over to nationals but it seemed to not work all that well resulting on only a 9-8 victory. 2 doubles was a spot where I thought W&L may have a chance but Emory pulled out a close one there too. There were some close matches in the bottom of the lineup but I would suspect the Emory players were semi-tanking just waiting for their 2 studs to win at the top and it worked. Emory drops only 2 games in the singles matches on record and moves through to the Elite 8 very comfortably.
CMS
With the exception of the Hopkins region, probably the most drama here. CMS took care of Whitman comfortably. The only slip up for the Stags was at #3 singles where Eric MacColl was trailing in his match. I thought that would be a huge spot for the Stags against Cruz the following day so that had to be a little alarming to see for CMS. Other than that, CMS took care of business against Whitman and got to sit back and watch as #4 and #6 in the country battle it out for a spot in the Sweet 16. I noted before the weekend that CLU's early season momentum had slowed down a bit. Cruz also always brings their best stuff at the end of the season after so much intense training. I talked about the big 3 matches in this one. #1 doubles and the top 2 singles spots. Whoever won that little best of 3 series was going to win this match. Cruz went 3-0 in those spots and won with a very comfortable 5-2 win. I actually expected this to be much closer and I even picked CLU to win. Hansen once again proved that he always has his guys ready to go. Once CLU got down in doubles, I knew it would be hard for them to win. And it doesn't help when your two superstars both get bageled in their 1st set. The Kingsmen were just done after this. Hopefully Giuffrida and Ballou will both bring their A game for individuals because Pybas and Vartabedian just owned them. So once again, we had a Stags-Slugs final. These two have alternated qualifying for the Final 8 over the past few years and it was CMS turn this time. Despite the rise of CLU this year, the usual suspects dominate the West.
I often make a big deal about experience. Having played in NCAAs before helps. Look at the doubles in the regional final. According to the CMS press release, after the 8-0 win by Cruz at 1, Cruz led 6-4 at 3 and had 5 match points at 2. CMS managed to get both points. Guys like Eric MacColl, Russell Brockett and Mikey Lim have experience, and that's my difference maker in this match. They were able to step up against the inexperienced Cruz teams and get those 2 huge points for their team. This allowed their depth to take control and it got them a win. Pybas was impressive again and has to be the MVP of this regional, but I had a feeling CMS would be too deep. They won at 4, 5 and 6 to clinch the match. They come into this match with probably the best 5 in the country in Alex Johnson and he could be very valuable in their run to a national title. CMS used their experience to win this match and it's as simple as that. The Stags now look to capture the national title that has eluded them. I will admit I vastly underrated CMS during the preseason but they are as good as anyone this year. I'm looking forward to a potential CMS-Emory semi which is a match I've wanted to see all season. A great regional weekend after a great season for CMS.
Wash U
I underestimated Kalamazoo and overestimated Luther. I thought Luther would have some of the NCAA magic that they had last year, but they got rolled by Kalamazoo who played like a top 15 team this weekend. The Hornets found their early season form that had them up to 13 in the country and gave Wash U quite a scare. First looking at the Round of 32, Kalamazoo was just the more talented team and this showed. I said in the preview that Luther had to be up after doubles if they wanted to win because they simply weren't as talented as their opponents. I'm very surprised by the 8-1 score at #3 doubles. Luther has had some good results from the top of their lineup this year but they just didn't show up on Saturday and Kalamazoo probably would have swept singles for an 8-1 win in this as they were winning easily in every match. Kudos to Coach Riley who really had his guys ready to play both days. Wash U had to take note of Kalamazoo's dominant win but it must not have clicked until after the doubles on Sunday.
In one of the most surprising turn of events of the weekend, Kalamazoo found the magic they had in early March and stole 2 and 3 doubles from Wash U. The Bears had to be sweating a bit after this but Follmer was able to get his guys to regroup and back on track for singles. It looks like Kzoo was going to win 3, so this would have ended in a 6-3 win, but instead Wash U finished at 5-2. Watts obviously wasn't going to lose, and I thought the bottom of Kalamazoo's lineup would have to come up big for them. Parizher didn't play on Sunday, but instead freshman Kareem Farah got the clinching win for Wash U. Adam Putterman had a bad weekend and Wash U is really going to need him if they want to win a national title. The Bears have to be questioning themselves after this match, but if you remember the last time Wash U had a questionable result in February, the bounced back the next match and beat Hopkins 8-1. The Bears survived which is what matters and it's probably good for them that they were tested. They can't have a repeat performance of Sunday's doubles if they want to beat CMU.
Carnegie Mellon
This region produced the biggest round of 32 upset in the tournament when unranked UT-Tyler beat 18th ranked Mary Washington even after losing 2 of the 3 doubles. I said in the preview that this was possible but unlikely and Tyler managed to pull it off. Funny that they came into the tournament last year ranked top 20 in the country and lost to Luther and now they are the ones pulling the upset. A great win for Tyler and this will almost definitely move them into the year-end top 30 which is a good accomplishment for a team this young. A fitting end to a poor season for Mary Wash but I expect this team to come back and be top 20 again next year if not better. They have good development in Mary Wash, but inexperience caught up with the Eagles this year. I thought they would be able to hang with CMU, but the Tartans had to breath a sigh of relief playing an unranked team at home for a spot in the Final 8.
The regional final didn't bring much drama as CMU ran through the top 2 doubles spots. Tyler was able to stay in it with a tiebreak win at #3. #3 could be a big spot for CMU against Wash U and a potential must win spot. CMU's doubles has been solid recently and I think a 2-1 lead against Wash U is a must if they want to advance to the Final 4. 3 through 5 singles have been great spots for CMU all season and Tyler was just overmatched. Tyler had leads at 1 and 6 so this could have ended up looking like a respectable score, but CMU was just a little too determined and a little too talented. Overall a great weekend for both teams. Tyler has to be very pleased with their performance and their upset and CMU qualifies for their first Elite 8 in school history. They also have a great chance to win against Wash U and this is a match I'm really looking forward to between two teams with some of the best singles lineups in the country.
Whitewater
To begin, I'll discuss the round of 32 between Carleton and Trinity (TX). I was really doubting the Tigers after this match due to the fact that both 1 and 2 doubles went to tiebreakers. If Trinity wanted to beat Kenyon in doubles they needed these spots to be sharp. Trinity used their advantage in talent to get through this match 5-0 having no trouble in singles. Kenyon easily took out host Whitewater setting up a regional final that I was really looking forward to. I said in the preview that it was a must for Trinity to get up in doubles and they did so with easy wins at 2 and 3. Delafuente/Frey is arguably the best 2 doubles team in the country at the moment and Carroll/Murray is one of the best 3 teams. Both of these teams came up huge for Trinity giving them an early 2-0 lead and they will need to do it again in the Final 8. You had to expect Kenyon's seniors to step up and keep them in the match and they did just that winning 1 doubles in a tiebreaker. The Cocanougher/Kowal team hasn't been as dominant as the past 2 years and Kenyon took advantage of it. I expected that win for Kenyon to give them momentum entering singles but Trinity showed resiliency and got on the board with an expected win at 3 singles. They also had first sets at 2, 4 and 6. Piskacek came storming back for Kenyon but at the same time the Tigers won at 6 giving them a 4-1 lead as Greenberg won as well making it 4-2. Kenyon won the first set at 5 and Piskacek split so the momentum was turning, but Kowal from Trinity who clinched the conference for them, was able to win his 2nd set tiebreaker to end the match. An amazing win for Trinity and a much needed one for their program. They are still young and will come back as a national title contender next year. As of now, they know they have nothing to lose against CMS after getting blasted 9-0 two months ago. I am very sure this won't happen again but Trinity's doubles needs to come up huge if they want to win. A disappointing end to a season that didn't meet expectations for Kenyon. The Lords graduate 4 great seniors after what has been a magical last 3 years. This program will enter rebuilding mode and hopefully we see them back on the national scene very soon.
Amherst
The only thing to really discuss here is the Amherst-Williams match and I said beforehand that you can probably flip a coin to determine the winner. Amherst has slightly more talent plus experience from last year playing in a big match and the home court. I predicted the 2 and 3 doubles would be split and this time around these 2 went to the teams I expected to win. Williams carried their 2-1 doubles lead to a victory last match and this time Amherst was able to get that huge point at 1 doubles which will be absolutely crucial for them against Emory. Williams also dominated 3 through 5 singles against Amherst in the previous meeting and Waterman was able to come up with a big win for Herst. It's amazing that all 6 matches went to 3 sets and Amherst was able to take 5 first sets. A great comeback by the Ephs but Herst was just a little too much with their 1-2 combo of Chafetz and Kahan. I think Williams needed the win at 2 with a senior-freshman match, but a great win by Kahan to give his team the win. Herst also looked on their way to at least 1 more win. Williams has to be disappointed with their poor luck draw-wise and they are also not used to missing the Final 8. A good recovery near the end of the season by Williams but this season just didn't live up to their standards that they are accustomed to. A decent start for a first-year head coach but Williams has a lot of work to do to catch up with Herst and Midd. The recruits are clearly there for Williams but they need to pick up the development. Herst moves on to take on Emory is the Elite 8 match that I'm most looking forward to. Most people are counting them out but I think they have a great chance to win especially given their unexpected performance in the Elite 8 last year.
Johns Hopkins
Not only did NC Wesleyan beat Hopkins, but they also had to battle to beat Vassar. The results for NCW after this weekend are shocking, but impressive at the same time. Starting with the first match, Vassar did what they needed to do in doubles. NCW had a lead at the 2 spot and Vassar came storming back before losing 9-7. They did however, take a 2-1 lead going into singles which is something they needed. I said that Vassar didn't have the depth to match NC Wes and this proved to be correct as the Bishops ran off easy wins at 4 and 5. The swing spot here was the win at 2 for NCW. Rumyantsev after this weekend has to be considered one of the best 2's in the country and possibly the most underrated player in the whole country. He had an outstanding performance for his team this weekend. NCW was able to get 6 as expected and close this match with a 5-2 score. A good effort by Vassar but it's clear they just weren't deep enough to hang with the best in the country this year.
This regional final is arguably the most amazing result of the season. Let's take a look at what happened. On March 20th, these two teams played at a neutral site with Hopkins winning 8-1 after a doubles sweep. Also, NCW had their #1 player in that match. Now, they were playing with a Hopkins crowd of 100, NCW didn't have their #1 player and Hopkins swept doubles again. I can't remember a key match this entire season where a team came back from 3-0. A betting man would say Hopkins wins this match. Yet, NCW must have received quite the pep talk between singles and doubles because they started to mount their comeback. They took all 6 first sets and Hopkins knew they were in for a battle. Not too long after, NCW led 4-3 with Hop gaining splits at 1 and 6, two seniors for the Blue Jays. At this point it was a coinflip but NCW just dug deeper in this match and managed to get that win. An unbelievable performance from the Bishops and apologies to them because I counted them out in this match. You have to call Hopkins the biggest disappointment of this season. I had them at pre-season #5 and they will probably finish around 12 or 13. They have such a talented roster but they can't seem to put together a good NCAA run. NCW for the 2nd year in a row has brought their best stuff for NCAAs. Middlebury is a completely different level than Hopkins but NCW will certainly give them a hard time. They need to work on doubles and if they are playing flawlessly, an upset is an outside possibility.
Thursday, May 13, 2010
Regional Preview: Hopkins
The huge news in this regional is that NCW's #1 Antti Saari will not be playing for undisclosed reasons. This just throws everything in favor of Hopkins, not that they weren't already the favorite. It also makes me question whether NCW can make it out of their 1st round. You have to like Mattleson to get his 2 points for Vassar and I think the Guzick brothers can also win at 1st doubles against a team that's missing Saari. My guess would the NCW is going to be a little too deep for Vassar. The Brewers had a great season and must win near the top of the lineup if they want a chance at a victory. I'm taking NCW 5-3 but I think they should run through 4 through 6 singles fairly routinely. Vassar would have to get the top 3 singles spots to win and this will be tough.
NCW lost 8-1 to Hopkins with Saari and although they are a better team now and will fight hard, you just can't pick against JHU in this match. If NCW had home court, that may be their only chance. Hopkins has looked shaky against top competition this year but I'm sure they will be ready to go. I like Hopkins to take the 1st 2 doubles spots but I think NCW may get on the board at #3. Heading into singles, the Maldow-Wang combo at the top of the lineup has the capacity to turn this into a blowout. The bottom of the lineup should be close but Hopkins should have a little extra at 3 through 5. I'm taking JHU in a fairly comfortable 5-2 and they will find themselves in what I think is their first Final 8 in school history.
NCW lost 8-1 to Hopkins with Saari and although they are a better team now and will fight hard, you just can't pick against JHU in this match. If NCW had home court, that may be their only chance. Hopkins has looked shaky against top competition this year but I'm sure they will be ready to go. I like Hopkins to take the 1st 2 doubles spots but I think NCW may get on the board at #3. Heading into singles, the Maldow-Wang combo at the top of the lineup has the capacity to turn this into a blowout. The bottom of the lineup should be close but Hopkins should have a little extra at 3 through 5. I'm taking JHU in a fairly comfortable 5-2 and they will find themselves in what I think is their first Final 8 in school history.
Regional Preview: Whitewater
I actually voted for the regional in the poll because I would love to see the Kenyon-Trinity (TX) regional final. Before I discuss that I think Carleton deserves a few words as well. Carleton is making only their 4th appearance in NCAA history after ending Gustavus' run of conference titles. I don't think Carleton will pose much of a problem for Trinity (TX) because of the Tigers strong doubles play so I would suspect a 5-0 or 5-1 for Trinity just because they are a little too strong. Carleton has had a great season after the transfer of their top player, but it's a little much asking them to beat a top 15 powerhouse like Trinity.
So that brings us to the match that I've been hoping for since a month ago. Kenyon is unfortunate to not be playing at home because they have such a great core of seniors. Trinity only goes as far as their doubles will take them. I didn't realize that Kenyon's #3 doubles team is 15-1 on the season. However, this team beat DePauw 9-7 and that same team from DePauw was beaten 8-1 by Trinity (TX). The Tigers have to come out hot because they simply cannot afford to lose this spot. At 2 doubles, I like Trinity as the favorites. 1 doubles is another tough one and it pits two of the best teams in the country against each other. Another big spot that I think Trinity must win. I'm going to say the Tigers will lead 2-1 after doubles. Frey is tough, but I can't pick against Greenberg. The same goes for 2, Piskacek has had a rough year but you have to like his chances. 3 would be the one spot where I think Trinity (TX) will be favored. 4 is another must win for Trinity and 5 and 6 should go to Kenyon. I see a potential doubles sweep for Trinity, but I don't think Kenyon can do the same. Like I said, Trinity will go as far as their doubles takes them. I'm taking Kenyon in a very close 5-3 propelled by the bottom of their lineup, but if Trinity can sweep doubles or get a win in the bottom 2 singles spots, they could win this match and find themselves in the Final 8.
So that brings us to the match that I've been hoping for since a month ago. Kenyon is unfortunate to not be playing at home because they have such a great core of seniors. Trinity only goes as far as their doubles will take them. I didn't realize that Kenyon's #3 doubles team is 15-1 on the season. However, this team beat DePauw 9-7 and that same team from DePauw was beaten 8-1 by Trinity (TX). The Tigers have to come out hot because they simply cannot afford to lose this spot. At 2 doubles, I like Trinity as the favorites. 1 doubles is another tough one and it pits two of the best teams in the country against each other. Another big spot that I think Trinity must win. I'm going to say the Tigers will lead 2-1 after doubles. Frey is tough, but I can't pick against Greenberg. The same goes for 2, Piskacek has had a rough year but you have to like his chances. 3 would be the one spot where I think Trinity (TX) will be favored. 4 is another must win for Trinity and 5 and 6 should go to Kenyon. I see a potential doubles sweep for Trinity, but I don't think Kenyon can do the same. Like I said, Trinity will go as far as their doubles takes them. I'm taking Kenyon in a very close 5-3 propelled by the bottom of their lineup, but if Trinity can sweep doubles or get a win in the bottom 2 singles spots, they could win this match and find themselves in the Final 8.
Regional Preview: Wash U
The question here is which Kalamazoo will show up this weekend. In their early season form, they beat DePauw and Chicago 7-2 as well as playing a tough 6-3 against Kenyon. In late season, Zoo lost 2 of 3 doubles to Gustavus, lost 5-2 against DePauw as well as losing to Salisbury. Unfortunately for Kalamazoo, they will have to work very hard to get the the regional final to take on Wash U. Luther is the 3 seed in this region and this is a very good and experienced team that made the Sweet 16 last year and upset UT-Tyler in the round of 32, which would be similar to pulling an upset this year. I think Kzoo probably has a little too much talent in singles for Luther so the Norse will have to take the lead with strong doubles play if they want to win the match. I think if this match goes down to the wire you have to like Luther because of their experience on this stage. I think Kalamazoo will win easily or Luther will win if it gets close. This is a hard match to predict but I'm going with Luther in a 5-3 upset that comes down to a couple 3rd sets.
The Wash U Bears are the top seed in this region and they have a bitter taste in their mouth after losing the UAA final against rival Emory. Wash U is hosting this regional and should run through whoever makes it to the final. Even if Kzoo wins against Luther and brings their best stuff for the regional final, I'm still take Wash U in a 5-0 rout. The Bears are a little too strong for the the next two seeds in this region and they should find themselves in the Final 8 fairly comfortably.
The Wash U Bears are the top seed in this region and they have a bitter taste in their mouth after losing the UAA final against rival Emory. Wash U is hosting this regional and should run through whoever makes it to the final. Even if Kzoo wins against Luther and brings their best stuff for the regional final, I'm still take Wash U in a 5-0 rout. The Bears are a little too strong for the the next two seeds in this region and they should find themselves in the Final 8 fairly comfortably.
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
Regional Preview: Washington & Lee
The biggest question in this region is not who will advance to the Final 8, but rather who will take on Emory in the regional final. W&L is the host and the #2 seed in the region standing at #25 in the country. They have had a pretty good season actually with a win against Mary Wash, but they lack the depth to pose any sort of threat to Emory. Similar to the CMU regional, the #3 seed is an unranked sleeper with a pretty good tennis tradition. TCNJ was up to #15 in the country only 2 years ago and they beat Hopkins in NCAAs to earn a Final 16 berth. They graduated most of that team and haven't seen the top 30 since, but they have given top 20 teams some trouble this season. They lost 5-4 against Vassar, Kalamazoo and Salisbury, so this team can play. W&L doubles has been streaky this year and the Generals can get on top in doubles I don't see them losing on Saturday. I'm going to take W&L 5-2 in this match to advance to the regional final against Emory.
W&L played Emory recently at Emory and all the doubles were 9-7 which surprised me. I would say W&L's only real chance at winning a doubles match will come at #2, and I still think they are the underdog there. Emory should dominate throughout the singles lineup and I would expect this to be very quick after the doubles ends. The Eagles are one of the hottest teams in the country after their UAA title and I expect them to run through this regional with two very routine 5-0 victories.
W&L played Emory recently at Emory and all the doubles were 9-7 which surprised me. I would say W&L's only real chance at winning a doubles match will come at #2, and I still think they are the underdog there. Emory should dominate throughout the singles lineup and I would expect this to be very quick after the doubles ends. The Eagles are one of the hottest teams in the country after their UAA title and I expect them to run through this regional with two very routine 5-0 victories.
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Regional Preview: Amherst
This is the first region that really caught my eye when I first looked at the bracket and it may also be the toughest to predict. This is the 3rd match of the season between these bitter rivals. St. Lawrence had a nice season, but I don't think the bottom 3 seeds here should really be taken into consideration. Amherst won 7-2 when they played a month ago at Williams and Williams won on Saturday 5-3 when they played at Amherst. I was very surprised that these two ended up having to play each other. I thought the recent win would be enough to push Williams ahead of Hopkins for the final #1 seed but this is clearly not the case. On paper, 2 doubles should go to Herst and 3 doubles should go to Williams, but these results were switched on Saturday. Whichever way it may turn out, I would expect those spots to be split. I'll come back to 1st doubles. 1st singles should go to Herst. 2nd doubles is a senior for Williams against a freshman for Herst and I think this is a match Williams will need if they want this win. The 3 through 5 singles spots are where Williams won Saturday. Obviously if they can take 3 through 5 again, they will win, but I doubt Herst will let that happen. Williams also had a big lead at 6 when play was suspended. If Herst can split the bottom 4 spots with Williams, I think they'll win. But if Williams is able to dominate the bottom again, this could turn into an easy win. The #1 doubles teams for both squads are fairly weak for their team's ranking and this spot could be a huge momentum builder going into singles. I just have a feeling Amherst will put out a close one on Sunday. I'm taking Herst 5-3.
Regional Preview: Carnegie Mellon
Of the bottom 4 seeds, this is by far the easiest path to the Final 8 for the top seed. CMU really lucked out with this regional, but I know I shouldn't be underestimating Mary Washington. The Eagles had a pretty poor season besides winning their conference title that included losses to Christopher Newport, Washington & Lee and Pomona-Pitzer, all of whom are outside the top 20. The Eagles only quality win with the exception of Salisbury was Redlands. Mary Wash got destroyed by most of the top 15 teams they played, but there was one exception to that and it was Carnegie Mellon. That regular season match was played at UMW and ended in a 5-4 victory for CMU. Mary Wash took 2 easy doubles matches but they were blown out by the bottom of CMU's lineup, failing to win more than 4 games in any set 3 through 6. Mary Wash did win at 1 and 2 making the score seem close. Carnegie's doubles has been up and down all season, but they didn't have their new doubles lineup for this match and in fact it was the last match where they played their old lineup. Their new lineup seems to be quite a bit stronger so I would expect a 5-1 or 5-2 win for CMU if these two meet in the regional final. I just don't think Mary Wash can hang in singles.
The sleeper here is UT-Tyler. The Pats had a season where they dropped out of the top 30 and they don't have any wins over top 30 opponents. They do however, have a former NCAA doubles qualifier in David Ashlock as well as the Fall ITA regional doubles champions for Texas. The Patriots could probably hang with a team like Newport who in fact beat Mary Wash. I think if Tyler could somehow get on top in doubles, it's possible that they could pull an upset. If I'm Mary Wash, I don't want to underestimate Texas-Tyler because they are a good team. They played 6-3 with Redlands as well as 5-4 with Pomona-Pitzer, so the talent is there. They all need to come together on Friday to pull this upset. I'm going to take Mary Wash 5-2 in this match but as I said if Tyler gets ahead in doubles this will get interesting.
The sleeper here is UT-Tyler. The Pats had a season where they dropped out of the top 30 and they don't have any wins over top 30 opponents. They do however, have a former NCAA doubles qualifier in David Ashlock as well as the Fall ITA regional doubles champions for Texas. The Patriots could probably hang with a team like Newport who in fact beat Mary Wash. I think if Tyler could somehow get on top in doubles, it's possible that they could pull an upset. If I'm Mary Wash, I don't want to underestimate Texas-Tyler because they are a good team. They played 6-3 with Redlands as well as 5-4 with Pomona-Pitzer, so the talent is there. They all need to come together on Friday to pull this upset. I'm going to take Mary Wash 5-2 in this match but as I said if Tyler gets ahead in doubles this will get interesting.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)