Thoughts on the Next Few Days

Cameron Spearman, Redlands

I will have a separate post Wednesday evening discussing the Stag-Hen Invitational.

First, I want to go over today's result that had Vassar defeating Whittier 6-3. The Brewers are now 3-0 in California with routine wins against Salisbury, Occidental and Whittier. Tomorrow they take on #7 Kenyon. If anyone knows the Lords well, it is Vassar's head coach John Cox. The question is if his team is skilled enough to pull out a few matches against Kenyon, who is arguably the hottest team in the country at the moment. However, Kenyon's 2 signature wins both came at home. I like Kenyon to win this match 7-2 or 8-1, but I also expect some tight matches. This is a perfect tuneup for the Lords heading into a huge Friday clash with Whitman. Another interesting thing to note is with this result, it is very possible that Mary Wash will be out of the rankings when they are released next week, especially if they lose to W&L this weekend. Who would have thought Mary Wash would be out of the top 30 2 weeks ago? I think it's quite clear that Whittier benefited from an exhausted UMW team and they aren't exactly top 30 material this year. They should enjoy their national ranking while it lasts though.

Apart from the Stag-Hen (SH), there is other tennis in California this week and weekend. Emory warms up for their SH by facing Redlands on Thursday. In Emory's past California trips, they haven't stopped by Redlands to play, so these 2 aren't too familiar with each other. I think this will be a great test for the doubles of both squads, and it will also give Redlands a chance to gauge the strength of the bottom of their lineup. I do expect the Bulldogs to come out with a couple wins in this, but they have to not be intimidated, especially in doubles. I'll talk about Emory later in the week when I discuss the SH, but I think this will be a perfect warm-up for them against a team that will challenge them, but not beat them. The more important match for Redlands is on the road against Santa Cruz on Saturday. I don't consider the Emory match winnable for the Bulldogs, but the Cruz match certainly is if Redlands is playing well. This would be a fantastic win for their program, but my heart tells me Cruz will be a little too much. After Saturday, the country will have a much better indication as to the strength of this year's Redlands team. A win against Cruz would put them in fantastic position for a Pool C bid, but I expect the Slugs to pull out a close one. Cruz is too disciplined to lose a match like this and if they play great doubles, this could turn into a blowout.

A team I haven't talked about much is UT-Tyler. The Pats started very slow this year with their first conference loss since 2007 and then a 5-4 loss against Rhodes. They take on Cal Lu in their first match without Ballou, and both of these teams desperately need a win. If you remember last year, UT-Tyler didn't have the greatest regular season, but came on very strong in NCAAs. They have to regroup and focus their efforts on winning the ASC. A win over CLU would certainly help to build their confidence. Remember 2 years ago at this time, this Tyler team was ranked 13 in the country.

There are 3 other Saturday matches and the most notable thing happening is Middlebury's first D3 test when they take on Brandeis. The Judges are coming off a decent California trip and I don't think they have much of a chance in this, but as long as they keep improving and peak at UAAs, they should be happy. As I've said, so many question marks surround Midd this year, so I'll be interested to see how they start against a solid opponent. They are still 1 in the country dating back to last year and I know they are talented, but getting off to a good start and getting their young guys confidence are 2 important aspects of their season. The other 2 matches should be very close. First we have Bates taking on MIT in a match of 2 New England teams trying to prove their worth. Both programs have top 20 aspirations this year, and if Bates wants to get a whiff of a Pool C bid in 2011, this is a must-win for them. MIT played a decent fall match against Williams, so they look to start strong in D3 play this spring and follow up their Sweet 16 performance in 2010. I expect this to be a battle as MIT won a close one in 2010. Lastly, the rivalry continues between Mary Washington and Washington & Lee. Despite being in separate conferences, geography makes these 2 hated rivals. Both teams are in desperate need of a win, particularly the Eagles, who have to feel great being back in Virginia after their California catastrophe. The loser of this probably won't be ranked in the next ITA poll. In 2008, both of these teams were top 18 in the nation when they met in the NCAA round of 32. Mary Wash won 5-4 and went on to beat Trinity (TX) the next day for a spot in the Final 8. How things have changed. Both teams are barely hanging on to their rankings and the glory they once had. It will be a huge win for the winner and a huge loss for the loser, as both of these teams have little to no confidence at the moment.

Saturday Results

Hopkins d. Vassar 9-0
Emory d. Newport 9-0
Redlands d. Mary Washington 7-2

I apologize for not being very active lately, but there hasn't been much going on. The season really kicks off this Wednesday, and there is a match almost every day until early May. The Stag-Hen this weekend is really the kickoff to the spring season after Indoors and I'll be previewing that later this week.

This weekend we had 3 noncompetitive matches. To begin, Hopkins dominated as expected, although they were tested at the top 2 doubles spots. This was a good warm-up match for the Bluejays and they won't be tested again for 2 weeks when they have a brutal 6 day stretch that includes matches against CNU, Bates, Emory, NCW and Kalamazoo. If I were Hopkins, I'd be working on my fitness a lot to make sure I don't wilt by the end of that string of matches. JHU did what they needed to do this weekend, but they need to be ready for some tougher competition. Vassar travels to California this week and they have a shot at newly ranked Whittier on Tuesday before Coach Cox takes on his former team Kenyon on Wednesday. They then participate in the Stag-Hen where they get to play Enory first round which I'm sure will be a great experience for them. They have to put their focus on improving to beat Skidmore, and they now know what they need to do since they've seen the Thoroughbreds before.

In the other 9-0, Emory topped Christopher Newport as expected, but with much more ease in singles than I was expecting. The Eagles dropped 4 games in the top 3 singles spots, which is just flat out impressive given that CNU's top 3 aren't too shabby. Emory played good enough doubles and they will need to play great doubles if they want to return to Atlanta with a Stag-Hen title next weekend. The Eagles have a tricky match against Redlands on Thursday before the Stag-Hen Invite where likely matches with Trinity (TX) and CMS await. Those 2 will really test the Eagles, and a CMS-Emory final could be a national title match preview. Newport is an interesting story. I don't like to be harsh on teams, but I have a feeling they think they are a lot better than they actually are. The Captains need to win their conference this year and it will be tough to do. They don't play the schedule to get a Pool C bid, so their only road to the tournament is through NCW. The fact is they should be a good team with a top 2 like they have, but I haven't decided whether or not they are a top 25 caliber team. They don't have much until they play W&L in 3 weeks, and I'm expecting that match to tell me a lot about them.

The past several years, the Redlands-Mary Wash match has always been a war, with the 2009 match being tied at 4-4 before Spearman won it for Redlands. This year it was quite a different story. This was exactly the start that Redlands needed to their D3 season and I'm glad to see it. They got a little confidence under their belt heading into matches with Emory and Cruz during the next 6 days. I think Cruz is a winnable match and it will show us what Redlands is really made of this year. I will also be looking at this match later in the week. A wonderful result for Redlands, but the question is how much of it was them playing well and how much of it was Mary Wash continuing to be terrible? The Eagles were an absolute joke this week, and for the players they have on their team, I don't know how they lose like they do. Something happened to this team between '08 and '09, because they haven't been the same program since that NCAA quarterfinal against Middlebury in 2008. I can't put my finger on what's wrong either, but they are horrendous. As I said, I thought this year's team got on the right track after that Cal Lu win, but I was very wrong. They sit at #27 in the nation, and a loss to W&L next Saturday may very well drop them out of the rankings, which is just inexcusable for a program like this. They are lucky to be in a weak conference, but that doesn't mean they should cruise through the season. On paper, I think this team should be in the low 20s and possibly the top 20, but they aren't playing like it. I wondered if the weather adjustment was a factor, but they still got crushed a week after they got there, so that doesn't seem to be the case. Right now I think they just played over their heads at Indoors, riding their home court advantage. The good news is they still have 2 months to turn it around, but things are looking grim for the Eagles.

Weekend Ahead

Only 3 matches of note until next Wednesday and they all take place on Saturday. First, we get a look at Christopher Newport in D3 action when they take on one of the top teams in the country in Emory. This won't be much of a match and I expect Emory to come away with a 9-0 or 8-1 win, but there will some good matches at the top of the lineup with Emory's 1-2 punch of Pottish and Goodwin versus Shulman and Heyer for CNU. 4 of the probable top 25 singles players in the country will be competing. Second, we get our first look at Johns Hopkins this spring as they take on a Vassar team that is coming off a 7-2 defeat against Skidmore. A lot of people are on the look out for Skidmore as a big-time sleeper this year, so how Vassar does against Hopkins may tell us something about Skidmore. I know it's a mistake to expect big things from JHU, but I do once again, so it would be great to see them get off to a strong start.

The main event this weekend is Mary Washington and Redlands in the Bulldogs' D3 kickoff this year. This is a huge match for Redlands because not only do they need the win, but more importantly they need confidence to start the year. UMW and Redlands have had very close matches the past couple years, and I expect more of the same this year. This is key for both teams. Mary Wash is 0-3 so far in California and Redlands needs all the wins they can get to qualify for Pool C, and they can't afford a loss to the #27 team in the country. I'm looking forward to this one.

CMS defeats Mary Wash 8-1 and ITA Rankings

CMS beat Mary Washington 8-1 with about 1/2 of their normal lineup. The Eagles will finish in California taking on Redlands Saturday in what's pretty much a must win for the Bulldogs after Mary Wash left the top 25.

New ITA rankings out today and obviously I think one thing stands out. Rankings are just about perfect in my opinion, however I don't know how Cal Lutheran managed to stay at #12 after a loss to Mary Washington, who currently stands at #27. I'd be very interested to hear the logic behind this. Also, W&L took out Salisbury 8-1 but the Gulls are still 23rd and W&L is 29. Not too much else to discuss as a few teams swapped spots, but nothing too much happened since the fall. I think a lot more will be reflected in the next rankings.

Mary Wash's Rough Start and The Big Picture

For those of you who haven't heard, Mary Washington began their California swing with an 8-1 loss to Pomona-Pitzer and a 7-2 loss to Whittier.

The Eagles scheduled 2 back-to-back matches and they clearly underestimated the Whittier Poets, projected to finish #5 in the SCIAC. I really thought Mary Washington had turned the corner when they got that win over Cal Lutheran. I think we now know that the Cal Lutheran team that showed up on Saturday at Indoors was not the same team that showed up on Friday at Indoors. The Eagles see CMS on Thursday and Redlands on Saturday to finish their trip. I'm interested to see how they fair on Saturday against the Bulldogs in a match that has traditionally been very close. Whittier doesn't play a stacked schedule, but they do have Vassar in a week and then the top SCIACs as well. They already lost to Pomona-Pitzer in an 8-1 rout and my guess is they caught a beaten down and demoralized Mary Wash team, similar to the Cal Lu team that Mary Wash played. With this win, it would be tough to keep them out of the top 25 though. The ranking committee has quite a task in front of them and I'll be interested to see what they come up with for Thursday. I thought the Eagles would come out prepared against PP after losing last year's match, but the Hens always give their best and are well coached. PP, unlike Whittier, plays a stacked schedule, and we will find out how good they really are as soon as next weekend. They open their own Stag-Hen invitational against Trinity (TX) and could have potential opponents such as Vassar, Whitman, Kenyon and Emory in the tournament. After last night, I think they are a legitimate Pool C contender. They have a veteran team who is hungry to get back in the tournament and this could be their year. I want to pose a question and look at a string of match results to lead me into my next point. If Pomona-Pitzer played Mary Washington tomorrow in Fredericksburg indoors, who would win? Even after having last night's information, I'd still be tempted to pick Mary Wash in that match. This Mary Wash team is no pushover. Even after their first 2 matches, they give a very good Trinity (TX) team all they could handle in a pretty tight 6-3.

Pomona-Pitzer beat Mary Washington 8-1. Mary Washington beat Cal Lutheran 5-4. Carnegie Mellon beat Cal Lutheran 5-4. Cruz beat Carnegie Mellon 5-4. Wash U beat Cruz 5-4. In a way this reminds me of 2008, when the top 16-18 teams in the country could all beat each other on any given day. This year with the information we have so far, I think there are two groups of teams: the top 3 and everyone else. I don't see anyone beating Herst, CMS and Emory besides each other. After that, it's possible that there is not a large gap between #4 and #20. No one has stepped up to the plate as a #4 that can challenge the top 3, but we haven't seen Midd, Williams or Hopkins yet. Wash U gave Emory a tough time but I don't see them truly challenging the top 3. Things could really get thrown into disarray if Mary Wash takes out Redlands Saturday and then the Bulldogs start beating people. Everything is just such a mess right now, when I first heard these results, I started asking a bunch of questions. In 3 weeks, we will have a lot more information and should be able to sort out the pretenders from the contenders. Every match is vitally important for the Pool C teams and you then have to root for the teams that you beat. There aren't a lot of results in yet, but we could technically see Pomona-Pitzer at #11 or #12 in the rankings on Thursday. I think they should be more like 14 or 15. I don't even want to try to take a crack at rankings right now because there aren't enough results. I think the thing to take from all of these early season matches is that we may be in for a great season where anyone can beat anyone else and every team always has to be looking over their shoulder because they have a target on their back. The Eagles have a chance for redemption Saturday. It's just strange to see them lose like they did, but maybe Pomona-Pitzer has really developed and is ready to contend for the top 10 in the country. Things are so wide open at the moment, there's no reason they can't do it. We will see what happens over the next few weeks and I'll take another look at "the big picture" then.

Weekend Recap

3 matches that I'm going to discuss plus a few other results of note. Cal Lutheran vs. Pomona-Pitzer was cancelled due to weather and a new date has not been picked for the match. Not a ton of key matches this weekend, but a few results worth mentioning. Chicago beat Gustavus 6-3 after falling behind 2-1 in doubles. The Maroons were able to pull out 2 come from behind 3-set singles wins to avoid the upset. Chicago still does have a fighting spirit and life when it comes to qualifying for the NCAA tournament. This morning, the same Gustavus team lost 6-3 to DePauw, winning 2 singles matches at the bottom of the lineup as well as 1st doubles. If I'm Gustavus, I have to be fairly happy with the fact that I played 2 top 20 teams pretty tough given how far the Gusties fell last year. With Carleton get smoked by Whitewater, I have to call GAC the favorite in the MIAC right now. The Gusties actually play Whitewater in 2 weeks and this will be a big match for them. As I expected, Chicago and DePauw had nearly identical results this weekend. The Tigers meet the Maroons on March 22 in an absolutely massive match with the loser being at a big disadvantage when it comes to qualifying for NCAAs.

Skidmore found their 2009 form and beat Vassar 7-2 in a fairly routine victory. If Skidmore keeps up the good work, they could be quite dangerous in May. However, Vassar will now want revenge in the conference tournament so this just adds more fuel to the fire in what should be a great conference final. The biggest match of the weekend had Kenyon defeating Carnegie Mellon 6-3 in a tight match. It's time to give credit where credit is due and say that Kenyon is playing great tennis so far and is definitely the most pleasant surprise for the month of February. The Lords have beaten 2 top 20 teams and there's no reason they will stop here. With the team they have, they are really playing well and this win should put them at 7 or 8 in the next ITA rankings. They are getting contributions from everywhere as Burgin looks to be one of the best #2's in the country and the Polster/Williams team is playing like they are top 10 in the nation in doubles. The Lords next tests will be in California where they will have a match against Whitman and potential matches with CMS and Trinity (TX). I said this before the year started, if Thielke can put this team in the Final 8, he deserves Coach of the Year. The way they are playing right now, this is a definite possibility. Looking at the other side of the match, this is far from a bad loss from CMU because they are still in great position and should be single digits in the rankings, but I'm now questioning my statement about them being as good as last year which I made last weekend. They first need to concern themselves with making the tournament, but they should be more concerned about getting a top seed in the regional. The good news is they may get to see Kenyon again in the GLCA final if they both make it. One thing that disappoints me is that I dubbed Bobby Mactaggart one of my Players to Watch, and he is almost single-handedly doing in his team right now. He's won 10 games in 4 singles matches and is 0-4 in doubles in D3 competition. I said that CMU won't get anywhere without him and I stick to that. Along with Ray Worley, he's not doing what he needs to be doing. Seems like Wichlin, Polster, Frey and Egan all got my message though, because they've had good starts to the spring.

Two other results of note from Case Western. They knocked off both Whitewater and Kalamazoo and should find themselves in the top 30 if not the top 25 in the next ITA rankings. Coach Wojtkowski is running a fantastic program in Cleveland and the Spartans are on the rise. This makes things very interesting in the UAA as there are now 6 probable ranked teams. Life is hard for CMU and Chicago as one of them will have to take on a fiery Case team and the other will have to take on the host Brandeis in the conference tournament 1st round. I could easily see an upset in 1 of those 2 matches and an NCAA berth could be on the line as well. Case isn't in action again until GLCAs, which I don't believe they've played before. They could enter as the 4th or 5th seed and see Denison in the quarters which would be interesting.

Brief Weekend Preview Feb 25-27

Several matches are happening this weekend, but there are 4 which I'd like to mention because I think they are fairly significant. A team I haven't talked much about is Gustavus, and they will be in competitive D3 action for the first time this season when they take on Chicago. The Maroons are much more talented and should be able to win handily, but the Gusties have an opportunity to make a statement that they are back with a good showing. Chicago took care of a weak Kzoo team last weekend and now they face a similar foe in Gustavus. I expect the Gusties to be slightly stronger than they were last year now that Coach Valenti has a year under his belt, but I don't expect them to be any match for Chicago this weekend. Also note that Gustavus takes on DePauw Sunday, so looking at the results of those matches may allow us to compare the strength of Chicago and DePauw. Next we have a conference rivalry between Vassar and Skidmore. Although this match isn't all that important on the national scene, it's hugely important for these 2 teams as this rivalry runs very deep. The winner of this will get a leg up in the Liberty League and will most likely find themselves ranked in the next ITA poll. It's important for Skidmore to bounce back after a rough season last year, but equally as important for new Vassar coach John Cox to begin to establish a dynasty in the conference so he can build his program into a national power.

Third we have Cal Lutheran versus Pomona-Pitzer in the Kingsmen's first match without Nick Ballou. I'm interested to see how the Kingsmen respond in this. This is a huge match for PP to get a win on their Pool C resume and one they desperately need so they can potentially avoid the #4 seed in the conference tournament. They could use the confidence and this match would take them into the top 20 in the country. I'm not completely sure what to expect of Cal Lu from an effort standpoint, so we'll see how they fair. These 2 both played Brandeis in the past few days with Cal Lu w/Ballou winning 6-3 and PP winning 8-1 after a doubles sweep. I think this could be a big opportunity for the Hens and I expect them to come out with a win against a depleted and reeling CLU squad. The loser of this is in huge trouble when it comes to making NCAAs.

The main event this weekend is the next chapter in the rivalry between Carnegie Mellon and Kenyon. These 2 have played some great matches over the past 3 years and despite not being in the same conference or region, they have become great rivals with a mutual respect for each other. Kenyon defended their home court early in the season against Chicago, but this CMU team is much more focused and disciplined, meaning the Lords will need to raise their game to win. CMU certainly has the talent edge and they have the opportunity to really make a statement that they are a top 10 team who should be taken seriously this year. If they can be mentally tough and win in a hostile environment, they will have just about clinched an NCAA berth. This could potentially be a huge match for NCAA seeding and hosting, so even though its not a must win for either team, it's a result that we will come back to later in the season for sure. Kenyon seems to be very confident so far this season and they've had some quality wins, but this is by far their toughest D3 test of the spring. I think they need to play excellent doubles to win this match, but I like a more experienced CMU team to win a close one. If the Lords can weather the storm early and remain even deep into the match, they can win. This match is CMU's for the taking if they are focused and want it, and I think they leave Ohio with a huge win on Saturday.

2011 Team Preview #32: Amherst

Moritz Koenig

Coach: Chris Garner, 4th Season
Location: Amherst, Massachusetts
Conference: NESCAC
2008 Ranking: 15
2009 Ranking: 2
2010 Ranking: 2
2011 Projected: 1

I've saved the best for last. Depending on how their doubles and top guys do, this could be the best D3 team we've seen in a very long time. The 2007 Slugs were fantastic, but they weren't facing the competition that this year's Amherst team is. If the Jeffs are dominant in their run to a national title, this could go down as one of the best D3 teams ever. Before I get into the nuances of their team, I just want to present the talent on this team. You have Austin Chafetz, the #1 from Amherst's national runner-up team in 2010, NCAA Singles semifinalist and the only play to ever beat Dillon Pottish in a D3 dual match. You have transfer Luis Rattenhuber, who played #4 for San Diego St. last year, a team that was ranked as high as #44 in D1. Next is Mark Kahan, defending National ROTY, NCAA Singles quarterfinalist and the only person ever to beat Chris Goodwin in a D3 dual match. After that is Joey Fritz, a freshman ranked as high as #18 in his graduating class, by far the highest we've ever seen for an incoming D3 player. Coming back is Andrew Jung, who was the #3 player on Amherst's 2009 National Runner-Up team before taking a year off school. I should also mention Mr. Clutch Moritz Koenig, Amherst's NCAA MVP and #5 player last year, as well as Wesley Waterman, Amherst's #4 player and the person who clinched the NCAA semifinal against CMS. I could also go on about their bench players' accolades. As good as other teams are this year, how in the world can Amherst lose? When you take into account the fact that these guys raise their game better than anyone during May, it's hard to conceive of them being beaten this year, and the scary thing is Koenig is their only senior. Chris Garner has built an incredible team, and the fact that he took them from missing the NCAA tournament to the NCAA final in only a year shows his coaching prowess. He is successfully drawing the recruits and has Amherst in line as the heavy favorite to win the national title this year. As I said previously, anything but a national title would be a huge disappointment for a team that has come so close over the past 2 seasons. If this team is going to lose, you've got to get them in doubles and at the top of their lineup where teams like Emory and CMS could potentially be stronger. I wouldn't be surprised if they lose a regular season match or two, especially given the fact they haven't had the greatest regular seasons during their past runs to the final. In fact, last season they were the #7 overall seed heading into NCAAs and barely escaped their regional. Looking at their schedule this year, they will be tested start to finish. Big matches during spring break are against Trinity (TX) and CMS, and then they return home for NESCAC play where they will take on Williams and Middlebury prior to the NESCAC tournament being held at Middlebury. If they can get through the regular season unscathed, this is an awesome team and I think everyone will realize what's going to happen in May.

Cal Lutheran's Nick Ballou Done for the Season

I was told this morning that Ballou will have surgery to repair a herniated disc in his back and will no longer be playing this season. It's unfortunate for the Kingsmen, but his health is the most important thing given that he's only a sophomore. This is an injury dating back to last spring that never healed. I have no doubt in my mind that he's seriously injured, but I just can't help to wonder if the same decision would have been made had the Kingsmen finished in the top 4 this past weekend and maintained their top 10 ranking. Either way what's done is done, so I guess we'll never know.

The significance of this runs throughout D3. Cal Lu still has 12 ranked teams on their schedule this spring, but the teams that are impacted the most are fellow Pool C competitors. Despite CLU's bad weekend, given their schedule and the quality of their team, you had to think they would pull out enough wins to qualify for the NCAAs through Pool C. Given the injury to their top player, I don't think they have much of a chance anymore, especially since their lack of depth was on display in Virginia. It's almost like an extra spot has opened. CMU and Williams have to be breathing a huge sigh of relief given that they are near locks for the tournament now if they do what they are supposed to. The biggest winner in all of this is Redlands who now went from a probable 3rd in the conference to an almost definite 2nd. I think the Bulldogs will be competing with Bowdoin, DePauw and Chicago for the 5th and 6th Pool C spots. Teams like Trinity (CT), Newport and Pomona-Pitzer even have Pool C life. This unfortunate event has really opened things up and if the Kingsmen somehow manage to come together as a team and make the tournament minus Ballou, they should be incredibly proud of their efforts. We will see how they fair this weekend against Pomona-Pitzer.

Indoors Is Over, Now What?

The much anticipated National Indoors has ended and we begin to get into the heart of the dual match season. Things won't be all that active for the next few weeks, but we do have Brandeis in California this week and Mary Wash in Cali next week. Also in the middle is a big Saturday with a couple of big matches including Vassar-Skidmore, PomonaPitzer-Cal Lu and Carnegie-Kenyon. I will be discussing all those matches later this week and will be covering all the action until things really get started in the second week of March.