AIMING FOR 9PM PT. BEGINNING WRITING SHORTLY
Been out of town for the past several days so I won't be able to write a weekend recap until Tuesday evening. I will have a look at this past weekend's results as well as the latest updates on NCAA scenarios. Conference championships are beginning soon. I apologize for the inconvenience and please check back Tuesday night.
Monday, April 11, 2011
Thursday, April 7, 2011
Brief Weekend Preview
Running a bit short on time after Bracketology so I apologize for the brief post. Several good matches this weekend. To begin, the GLCA tournament is happening at Kalamazoo this weekend. Potential semis are CMU-Case and DePauw-Denison. I think the only team who can really help themselves is CMU. They still have a tiny bit of hope for an at-large bid, but obviously they need to win this tournament first. The others are out of it in Pool C and are really just playing for pride in my opinion. This tournament really fell off when Kenyon pulled out.
Also on Saturday, NC Wesleyan will be tested when they take on Mary Washington. This will be a good test for NCW's doubles teams, because they've obviously been shaky this year and you're not doing anything in NCAAs without solid doubles. Middlebury has another test as they play Trinity (CT). Midd started a little rough, but I expect them to pick up their play now that they are back at home against conference opponents. The Bantams are trying to prove they are a solid top 15 team and pushing a team like Midd would certainly help that cause. A huge rivalry as always taking place in California with Redlands playing CMS. CMS has dominated the past several times out, however this remains a rivalry where anything can happen, especially with desperation setting in for Redlands. Also in the Northeast is Bowdoin at Amherst as the Jeffs look to continue their dominance of the past couple weeks against a solid opponent. Lastly, the regular season match between the top 2 teams in the MIAC: Carleton and Gustavus. GAC has been tough this year and Carleton has been shaky, but I can be sure the Knights will get fired up for this. Gustavus won the regular season match between these 2 last year, but Carleton ended up winning in the conference title. I definitely expect a good one in Minnesota on Saturday.
On Sunday, a dangerous Brandeis team travels to Hartford to take on Trinity (CT). This is a match Trinity can't afford to lose, but with a Brandeis win against MIT today, I know they will be upset-minded. This is an interesting match because both teams are top heavy and somewhat lacking depth. I am definitely on upset watch here; this would be a huge win for either team.
The main event of the weekend is Williams and Amherst. This is one of the best rivalries in D3 at the moment because even though Amherst seems better, Williams is always ready to play against the Jeffs. These 2 met 3 times last year with Amherst winning 2, including an NCAA Sweet 16 nailbiter that was one of the best matches of 2010. Williams knocked off Amherst in the NESCAC tournament semifinals last year on Amherst's home court, so I'm sure that stung for the Jeffs. I'm going to pick Amherst in this but I expect it to be tight. This would be a huge win for Williams locking them into the NCAA tournament, but it's also a chance for Amherst to make a statement after they looked vulnerable in California.
Also on Saturday, NC Wesleyan will be tested when they take on Mary Washington. This will be a good test for NCW's doubles teams, because they've obviously been shaky this year and you're not doing anything in NCAAs without solid doubles. Middlebury has another test as they play Trinity (CT). Midd started a little rough, but I expect them to pick up their play now that they are back at home against conference opponents. The Bantams are trying to prove they are a solid top 15 team and pushing a team like Midd would certainly help that cause. A huge rivalry as always taking place in California with Redlands playing CMS. CMS has dominated the past several times out, however this remains a rivalry where anything can happen, especially with desperation setting in for Redlands. Also in the Northeast is Bowdoin at Amherst as the Jeffs look to continue their dominance of the past couple weeks against a solid opponent. Lastly, the regular season match between the top 2 teams in the MIAC: Carleton and Gustavus. GAC has been tough this year and Carleton has been shaky, but I can be sure the Knights will get fired up for this. Gustavus won the regular season match between these 2 last year, but Carleton ended up winning in the conference title. I definitely expect a good one in Minnesota on Saturday.
On Sunday, a dangerous Brandeis team travels to Hartford to take on Trinity (CT). This is a match Trinity can't afford to lose, but with a Brandeis win against MIT today, I know they will be upset-minded. This is an interesting match because both teams are top heavy and somewhat lacking depth. I am definitely on upset watch here; this would be a huge win for either team.
The main event of the weekend is Williams and Amherst. This is one of the best rivalries in D3 at the moment because even though Amherst seems better, Williams is always ready to play against the Jeffs. These 2 met 3 times last year with Amherst winning 2, including an NCAA Sweet 16 nailbiter that was one of the best matches of 2010. Williams knocked off Amherst in the NESCAC tournament semifinals last year on Amherst's home court, so I'm sure that stung for the Jeffs. I'm going to pick Amherst in this but I expect it to be tight. This would be a huge win for Williams locking them into the NCAA tournament, but it's also a chance for Amherst to make a statement after they looked vulnerable in California.
Bracketology Issue #1
I talk a lot about NCAAs, but it's late enough in the season to start looking at some potential scenarios. The NCAA Breakdown has been in the latest news tab for most of the season, but for those who haven't seen it, here's a brief overview...29 spots are available to teams that win their conference, these are called automatic qualifiers. Their conferences are recognized by the NCAA as conferences who's champion receives an auto bid to NCAAs. The next group is for teams that don't come from automatic qualifiers. There are 7 spots for these teams. It is called Pool B. The remaining 6 teams come from conferences that have automatic bids, but these teams don't win their conference. This is what I constantly refer to as Pool C.
I've made a couple assumptions for the purposes of simplicity. I think this is what the tournament will look like IF IT STARTED TODAY. I had to make "predictions" as to who would win each conference, however I just used the higher ranked team. For example, I think Amherst will end up winning the NESCAC, however, at the moment, Middlebury is #1 and Amherst is #4, so I have the conference going to Middlebury. This is just to make things simple and avoid conflict.
The Field of 42:
Automatic Qualifier
American Southwest - Tyler
Capital Athletic - Mary Washington
Centennial - Hopkins
CUNY - Baruch
Colonial States - Marywood
Commonwealth - Elizabethtown
Empire 8 - Ithaca
Freedom - Manhattanville
Heartland - Transylvania
Iowa - Luther
Landmark - Drew
Little East - Western Connecticut State
MIAA - Kalamazoo
Midwest - Grinnell
Minnesota - Gustavus
NESCAC - Amherst
NCAC - Kenyon
Northern Athletics - MSOE
Northwest - Whitman
Ohio - Ohio Northern
ODAC - Washington & Lee
President's Athletic - Grove City
Skyline - Farmingdale State
SCIAC - CMS
SCAC - Trinity (TX)
St. Louis - Westminster
Commonwealth Coast - Western New England
UAA - Emory
USA South - NC Wesleyan
Independent
1. Santa Cruz
2. MIT
3. Skidmore
4. Vassar
5. Whitewater
6. TCNJ
7. UW Lacrosse
At-Large
1. Amherst
2. Wash U
3. Pomona-Pitzer
4. Chicago
5. Williams
6. Trinity (CT)
Regions (* denotes host team)
1. Middlebury*, MIT, Vassar, Ithaca, Western Connecticut, Western New England
2. Emory, Mary Washington, Washington & Lee*, Elizabethtown, Grove City
3. CMS, Santa Cruz*, Pomona-Pitzer, UT-Tyler
4. Amherst*, Trinity (CT), Skidmore, Baruch, Manhattanville,
5. Wash U*, Whitman, Kalamazoo, Grinnell, Westminster
6. Kenyon*, Johns Hopkins, UW Whitewater, Ohio Northern, Transylvania
7. Chicago*, Trinity (TX), Gustavus, Luther, UW Lacrosse, MSOE
8. Williams, NC Wesleyan, TCNJ*, Drew, Marywood, Farmingdale State
In the Final 8: Champ of 1 plays 8, 4v5, 3v6, 2v7.
I've made a couple assumptions for the purposes of simplicity. I think this is what the tournament will look like IF IT STARTED TODAY. I had to make "predictions" as to who would win each conference, however I just used the higher ranked team. For example, I think Amherst will end up winning the NESCAC, however, at the moment, Middlebury is #1 and Amherst is #4, so I have the conference going to Middlebury. This is just to make things simple and avoid conflict.
The Field of 42:
Automatic Qualifier
American Southwest - Tyler
Capital Athletic - Mary Washington
Centennial - Hopkins
CUNY - Baruch
Colonial States - Marywood
Commonwealth - Elizabethtown
Empire 8 - Ithaca
Freedom - Manhattanville
Heartland - Transylvania
Iowa - Luther
Landmark - Drew
Little East - Western Connecticut State
MIAA - Kalamazoo
Midwest - Grinnell
Minnesota - Gustavus
NESCAC - Amherst
NCAC - Kenyon
Northern Athletics - MSOE
Northwest - Whitman
Ohio - Ohio Northern
ODAC - Washington & Lee
President's Athletic - Grove City
Skyline - Farmingdale State
SCIAC - CMS
SCAC - Trinity (TX)
St. Louis - Westminster
Commonwealth Coast - Western New England
UAA - Emory
USA South - NC Wesleyan
Independent
1. Santa Cruz
2. MIT
3. Skidmore
4. Vassar
5. Whitewater
6. TCNJ
7. UW Lacrosse
At-Large
1. Amherst
2. Wash U
3. Pomona-Pitzer
4. Chicago
5. Williams
6. Trinity (CT)
Regions (* denotes host team)
1. Middlebury*, MIT, Vassar, Ithaca, Western Connecticut, Western New England
2. Emory, Mary Washington, Washington & Lee*, Elizabethtown, Grove City
3. CMS, Santa Cruz*, Pomona-Pitzer, UT-Tyler
4. Amherst*, Trinity (CT), Skidmore, Baruch, Manhattanville,
5. Wash U*, Whitman, Kalamazoo, Grinnell, Westminster
6. Kenyon*, Johns Hopkins, UW Whitewater, Ohio Northern, Transylvania
7. Chicago*, Trinity (TX), Gustavus, Luther, UW Lacrosse, MSOE
8. Williams, NC Wesleyan, TCNJ*, Drew, Marywood, Farmingdale State
In the Final 8: Champ of 1 plays 8, 4v5, 3v6, 2v7.
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
Quick Friday Notes
The GLCA got a whole lot less interesting, but there are still 2 matches of note on Friday that have big time NCAA significance. First, Cal Lutheran takes on Redlands. Both of these teams are playing to save their seasons. Lose this match and you have no shot at NCAAs, it's as simple as that. Obviously Redlands is looking for revenge after 2 losses to Cal Lutheran last year, and the Bulldogs have yet to put a top 20 win on their schedule. Redlands had high hopes coming into this season, but they haven't performed, and time is almost up. They need a convincing win here because this looks terrible at the moment. They made the tournament 17 straight years and now they are going to miss if for the 2nd year in a row. CLU is playing for pride at this point and they would love nothing more than to beat Redlands. I'm sure the Kingsmen will gear up for this and Redlands will have to play very well if they want to win.
In the Northeast, Bowdoin travels to MIT. MIT has notoriously fast courts so this could be a tricky match for the Polar Bears. But it's one they absolutely need to win with Pool C being so competitive this year. Bowdoin can't afford a loss in this, and likewise I think a win would really help their resume. MIT is playing at home with nothing to lose and I expect them to turn in a good performance. Bowdoin has to be careful not to look ahead to Amherst on Saturday and focus on the task at hand. I think a lot depends on if Sullivan can take over this match and get 2 wins for his team. If he does that, this could turn into a routine win for Bowdoin. But if the Engineers get ahead in doubles, this will turn into a tight one.
In the Northeast, Bowdoin travels to MIT. MIT has notoriously fast courts so this could be a tricky match for the Polar Bears. But it's one they absolutely need to win with Pool C being so competitive this year. Bowdoin can't afford a loss in this, and likewise I think a win would really help their resume. MIT is playing at home with nothing to lose and I expect them to turn in a good performance. Bowdoin has to be careful not to look ahead to Amherst on Saturday and focus on the task at hand. I think a lot depends on if Sullivan can take over this match and get 2 wins for his team. If he does that, this could turn into a routine win for Bowdoin. But if the Engineers get ahead in doubles, this will turn into a tight one.
Kenyon Withdraws From GLCA
In a surprising and controversial move, top seed and #7 Kenyon has withdrawn from this weekend's GLCA tournament citing injury concerns. I'm not going to pretend this isn't a controversial move, because it is, and I have mixed feelings about it. With Pool C being as competitive as it is, when you are in a winnable conference, your conference play and conference tournament are the most important things. Coach Thielke has told me that 3 of his top 4 players are banged up and he wishes to rest them for next week's match against Denison. If you look at the 2 through 6 seeds in this weekend's tournament, Kenyon has beaten 4 of the 5 teams, so they have to feel they don't have a lot to prove. The truth is Kenyon has nothing to gain by playing this weekend, because a victory does nothing for them, but a loss could move them down in the rankings, hurt their NCAA seeding, and add additional injuries to their players. From Kenyon's standpoint, this is an excellent move, but not everyone sees things that way.
The obvious question that comes to mind is: does this decision get made if Kenyon is ranked 13 or 14 and enters this tournament as the 2 or 3 seed? I don't know, but I'd have a hard time believing they would withdraw under those circumstances. People I've talked today say you have to go play no matter what. What if these were dual matches? You can't just cancel them. Kenyon has a large enough roster to fill the voids left by their injured players, so therefore they should go play and not duck their competition and be scared of losing. This is terrible news for Carnegie and DePauw. Carnegie now has to win the tournament this weekend and then go to UAAs and finish top 3, and it's an even worse situation for DePauw, who has to beat Rhodes and Trinity (TX) on back to back days to win the SCAC tournament and qualify for NCAAs. A win this weekend doesn't do much for the Tigers in my opinion.
It's a shame for the GLCA tournament who had 4 teams in the top 20 competing last year, including 2 in the top 10, and now the #1 seed is 17 in the country. I completely understand both sides of the argument here, and the move is open for interpretation.
The obvious question that comes to mind is: does this decision get made if Kenyon is ranked 13 or 14 and enters this tournament as the 2 or 3 seed? I don't know, but I'd have a hard time believing they would withdraw under those circumstances. People I've talked today say you have to go play no matter what. What if these were dual matches? You can't just cancel them. Kenyon has a large enough roster to fill the voids left by their injured players, so therefore they should go play and not duck their competition and be scared of losing. This is terrible news for Carnegie and DePauw. Carnegie now has to win the tournament this weekend and then go to UAAs and finish top 3, and it's an even worse situation for DePauw, who has to beat Rhodes and Trinity (TX) on back to back days to win the SCAC tournament and qualify for NCAAs. A win this weekend doesn't do much for the Tigers in my opinion.
It's a shame for the GLCA tournament who had 4 teams in the top 20 competing last year, including 2 in the top 10, and now the #1 seed is 17 in the country. I completely understand both sides of the argument here, and the move is open for interpretation.
Monday, April 4, 2011
Mid-Season Reports
Lately, I haven't been focusing a lot of attention on individual teams and their specifics. With this post, I will be grading and evaluating all the play this spring on a team by team basis and hopefully uncover a few statistics behind why each team is doing what they are doing. When I refer to a player or doubles team's record, I mean their record against tough D3 competition, meaning teams who are ranked or close to ranked. I will use the most recent ITA rankings.
Denison
Key Wins: Carnegie Mellon
Losses: Chicago, Rhodes, Mary Washington, Emory
Analysis: Although Dension got a win on the road against CMU which I'm sure is their program's biggest win in several years, they can't be all that happy with their performance this year. This is a solid team that plays good doubles, but their singles have let them down. They led in doubles against UMW and Chicago and went on to lose 4 of 6 singles matches. 3 of their losses were very winnable and with that they have to be disappointed. I think they will judge their season by how they perform against Kenyon in the next month, but after seeing flashes of brilliance this season from the Big Red, I'm not impressed with their overall performance, highlighted by the Rhodes match.
Grade: C+
Rhodes
Key Wins: UT-Tyler, Denison
Losses: None
Analysis: Rhodes has done what was asked of them and for that they should be praised, but the fact remains that they haven't beaten anyone legitimate. This is a veteran team and I was quite impressed with the Denison win, but the fact remains they are untested. In my opinion, it's easier to get fired up for a couple big matches over the course of a season versus having to play great teams every week. Rhodes benefits from that and I expect them to enter the SCAC tournament with upsets in mind. A potential semifinal against DePauw will define their 2011 season and tell the country how good they really are.
Grade: A-
Mary Washington
Key Wins: Cal Lutheran, W&L, Swarthmore, Denison
Losses: Emory, Trinity (TX), Pomona-Pitzer, Whittier, CMU, Redlands, Bates, CMS
Analysis: Talked a lot about these guys and they are up and down. Player To Watch Sam Wichlin has a record of 7-15 playing at the top spot in both singles and doubles. This is a talented team who isn't meeting their potential and this has been going on for 3 years. They've got a solid top of the lineup and good depth, but can rarely put everything together on the same day. If you take out the California stretch, they aren't terrible, but a loss to Bates at home certainly isn't what I expected. This should be a top 20 team, but it looks like they will finish outside the top 20 for the 2nd year in a row.
Grade: D+
Whitman
Key Wins: Trinity (TX), Swarthmore
Losses: Kenyon, Tyler, Cal Lutheran, Bowdoin
Analysis: I've said it time and time again, this team would be a lot better if they were constantly tested. The talent is there as shown by their win over a top 10 program, but they turned around and lost 2 matches which I thought were very winnable against CLU and Tyler. The fact that they got outplayed by Tyler doesn't give me a ton of confidence in them, and I think they are ranked appropriately at 22. I thought the Trinity match could be a breakthrough, but they were fatigued by the end of their trip which is understandable. At this point, all they can do is sit back and win their conference and then pray that they don't get sent to California. 8-10 in doubles play isn't typical Whitman, but this team has a lot of room to grow.
Grade: B-
Bates
Key Wins: Kalamazoo, Mary Washington
Losses: Hopkins, MIT, Brandeis
Analysis: I said depth was an issue. They are 4-11 at the 4 through 6 singles spots and 1-4 at 3 doubles. You can't be a top 20 team if you only have half a team. I know they had high expectations for this season, but they've lost to 2 teams outside the top 20, including Brandeis who was ranked 30th on Saturday. I think they still have the potential to knock of Trinity (CT) because of the matchup, and like I said preseason, 5th in the NESCAC should be a victory for them. At the moment, this looks a typical Bates season where they expect results and don't get a lot. While they look well on their way to a 4th straight 6th place finish in the NESCAC, they still have time to turn things around.
Grade: C
MIT
Key Wins: Bates
Losses: Amherst
Analysis: Not a whole lot to say as the Engineers play a fairly soft schedule. I thought it was a great win for them to beat Bates, but when they moved to the big leagues they got walloped by Amherst. The match I have circled on my calendar to judge MIT is a date with Bowdoin in a few days. This is winnable for MIT and will show us whether or not they are truly top 20 material. This is a very talented team who will make the tournament through the independent pool, but I don't see them a serious threat to upset a top seed in their region. If they can manage to beat Bowdoin I'd be impressed, but I don't know what to make of this team at the moment.
Grade: B
DePauw
Key Win: Gustavus, Carleton
Losses: Chicago, Emory
Analysis: DePauw hasn't made as much noise as they usually do and this weekend's GLCA tournament will define their season. They don't have a top 25 win on their resume and unless they win GLCA, they won't be a Pool C contender. The Tigers are playing solid doubles with a 9-3 record and 2 of the losses coming to Emory. The story remains that they lost their biggest match of the season and they did after they swept doubles. No doubt this is a dangerous team as they swept Chicago who just swept Wash U. The positive for DePauw is that they have their conference tournament to fall back on if things don't work out. I actually expect a GLCA final appearance from them this weekend, but I don't know if they can take out Kenyon.
Grade: C
Cal Lutheran
Key Wins: Brandeis, Tyler, Whitman
Losses: CMU, UMW, NCW, Kenyon, Amherst, Bowdoin, Williams, Middlebury, CMS
Analysis: I know this isn't how they envisioned their season, but I absolutely commend the Kingsmen for their effort after the adversity they've faced. They could have gone into the tank, but they continue to give top teams trouble. One stat defines this season for the Kingsmen. They are 1-23 at 5 and 6 singles. That's just putting too much pressure on your top guys to win and that's why they don't have a top 20 win on their resume. Player To Watch Ray Worley is playing higher than his comfort zone and is 11-13 overall. I think a victory for CLU would be finishing 3rd in the conference and beating Redlands, but I expect a typical match from CLU, meaning they win at the top and lose 5-4. This is a dangerous team, potentially top 12, with Ballou, but he's not around and they have to deal with things the way they are.
Grade: B-
Carnegie Mellon
Key Wins: Cal Lutheran, W&L, Mary Washington
Losses: Emory, Santa Cruz, Kenyon, Denison, Johns Hopkins
Analysis: Things went downhill quickly. I don't know why it happened, but a 9-0 loss to Hopkins shows me they're done. They came into this season with high hopes coming off a program-best year in 2010, but this team has been terrible the past 6 weeks. I don't believe loss of seniors is an excuse; look at Kenyon. There are no reliable positions each match and they haven't been winning close matches like they usually do. Player To Watch Bobby Mactaggart is 1-15 on the season and he would need a miraculous turnaround to put CMU in the tournament. They're 8-16 in doubles and don't have enough players to dig out of holes every match. I expect a 3rd or 4th place finish from them at GLCA and they are lucky to escape a tricky UAA quarterfinal against Brandeis or Case Western. A promising start has turned into an absolute disaster and I'm not quite sure where to put the blame.
Grade: D
Redlands
Key Wins: Mary Washington, Skidmore, Gustavus Adolphus
Losses: Emory, Santa Cruz, Amherst, Trinity (CT), Williams, Middlebury, Pomona-Pitzer
Analysis: Looks like another mediocre year and NCAA tournament miss for the Bulldogs. I can understand the losses to top teams, but a loss to Trinity (CT) is bad for a team this talented. It looks like the P-P match last Saturday is the first time they showed fight and desperation, but the winning edge they used to have isn't there anymore. They don't have a top 20 win on their resume despite looking like a good team on paper. Player To Watch Anish Nanda is 2-14 on the season. He has been removed from the doubles lineup and demoted to 4 singles. This is not what Redlands needed. They were really expecting a turnaround this year and although it could still come, this seems like another massive disappointment for a team that isn't used to adversity and losing like this.
Grade: D
Chicago
Key Wins: Case Western, Whitewater, Gustavus, Denison, Kzoo, DePauw, Wash U
Losses: Kenyon, Emory
Analysis: Chicago has obviously turned their season around with a win against Wash U and although things looked grim at the beginning with a loss to Kenyon and a near loss to Denison, this team deserves a lot of credit for sticking with it. I expect them to enter the top 10 for the first time in program history when the next rankings are released, and they may very well find themselves in the Final 8 this year. They've put together a doubles record of 13-14 and manage to get contributions from all positions in the singles lineup. This remains a dangerous team who can beat anyone on any day, and if they can turn in a repeat performance against Wash U in a potential UAA semi, the country should be scared and I'll be flat out impressed. It's about time the Maroons stepped up and did something good.
Grade: A-
Bowdoin
Key Wins: Whitman, Skidmore, Cal Lutheran
Losses: Trinity (TX), Pomona-Pitzer
Analysis: Bowdoin has been solid this year. Nothing more and nothing less. They don't have a top 16 win on their resume, but they also have beaten the teams that they were supposed to beat, although I'm sure the Skidmore match was closer than they would have liked. With the emergence of Chicago, Bowdoin may need to make some noise in the NESCAC if they want to qualify for the tournament. 2 years ago, Oscar Pena was one of the best freshmen in the country, however last year's season-long injury clearly set him back, as he has turned in a record of 2-7 so far this spring. If he can find his game and become the elite player that he used to be, I think this team has the ability to rise to the next level. But as is, they don't have enough depth and they are nothing more than solid.
Grade: B
Trinity (CT)
Key Wins: Redlands
Losses: Pomona-Pitzer, Santa Cruz
Analysis: Although I think this team is still vulnerable and they will show it when they play Bates, Brandeis and Bowdoin, so far I can't criticize them because they've taken care of business. They played an unbelievable match against Redlands which was one of the closest matches I've ever seen. That shows me that this team has a ton of heart, unlike some Trinity (CT) teams of the past. On paper, they aren't really a top 15 team, but if they continue to win that's all that matters. I don't expect the Bantams to make the tournament this year with all of the stiff competition that they have, but for the lack of personnel, I think they are doing a great job at the moment.
Grade: B+
Johns Hopkins
Key Wins: Vassar, Bates, Kalamazoo, Carnegie Mellon, Swarthmore
Losses: Emory, NC Wesleyan
Analysis: Hopkins has shown vast improvement over their last couple matches and that's a great sign. They've blown out the teams they were supposed to, and put together great matches against CMU and Emory. The thing that bugs me is the NC Wesleyan match. They just didn't show up for singles, and maybe it's because NCW is in their head, but you just can't do that as a top team. Player To Watch Andy Hersh is 6-2, but has been removed from the doubles lineup. I like this JHU team because I think they have more depth than previous years, and as I've said, it's all mental for them. They will most likely be on the road for NCAAs and face a higher ranked team in the Sweet 16, but they love that underdog role and this could be their breakthrough year.
Grade: B-
NC Wesleyan
Key Wins: Cal Lutheran, Johns Hopkins, Christopher Newport
Losses: Wash U, Trinity (TX)
Analysis: In my opinion, one of the most dangerous teams in the country, as you don't really know what you're going to get. What they have yet to do, is really win a big time match against a great team in a pressure situation. They've proved that they beat Hopkins, but I have a feeling they may need to beat a top notch team to make the Final 8 again. I think this is a much better and more mature team than the one that showed up at Indoors, but we won't see their true colors again until NCAAs. At that point, we'll figure out how much they've grown. If they can get back to the Final 8, that's a fantastic accomplishment, and I definitely think they have the tools to do so. Where they are going to get wins is unpredictable, but the thing I like about this team is they don't really have any weak spots in the singles lineup. If their doubles is on, they will be tough.
Grade: B
Trinity (TX)
Key Wins: Mary Washington, NC Wesleyan, UT-Tyler, Bowdoin, Vassar
Losses: Santa Cruz (2), CMS, Wash U, Whitman, Pomona-Pitzer, Amherst
Analysis: Maybe I overrated Trinity (TX) heading into this season. The end result remains to be seen, but when you look at their current resume, it's not impressive. The fact that they beat NCW and played well at their Texas quad is a good sign, but they lost to Whitman. It's great they tested Wash U and Cruz, but they didn't win, and I hope coming just short isn't the story of the 2011 Trinity Tigers. Player To Watch Max Frey is 13-11, to go along with a team doubles record of 22-14. This is great, but all the teams are a little inconsistent and can't seem to get on the same page in the same day. Their entire lineup has had flashes of brilliance, but when you've lost against every top 10 team you've played and a team outside the top 20, it's hard to consider yourself a true national title contender. I expect them to win the conference and be dangerous in NCAAs, and for the sake of making me look good, I hope they make a Final 4 run.
Grade: C+
Williams
Key Wins: Redlands, Cal Lutheran
Losses: Pomona-Pitzer, Santa Cruz
Analysis: This isn't really a midseason report because the Ephs haven't played a ton. They define their season by NESCAC success, and I think they have a legitimate shot to get 2nd in NESCAC this year. They aren't a fantastic team as shown by their California losses, but they are a solid 9 or 10 in the country and will be a contender for a Final 8 spot depending on their NCAA regional. I've said before that this is the youngest team in the country, and that can show at times. Player To Watch Felix Sun is 5-3 so far, and the Ephs will need him to be an on court leader if they want success this year. The real tests for Williams will be against Bowdoin, Amherst and Middlebury and if they find themselves in the NESCAC title match and the Final 8 of NCAAs, that's a great accomplishment. If they don't, and miss the Final 8 2 years in a row, it could be a sign that the program is slipping. It's a thin line between success and failure for Williams right now.
Grade: B
Pomona-Pitzer
Key Wins: Whittier, Brandeis, Mary Washington, Trinity (TX), Tyler, Bowdoin, Skidmore, Trinity (CT), Williams, Redlands
Losses: Emory, Kenyon
Analysis: Their resume speaks for itself. Along with Kenyon, they are the biggest surprise of the year. The Hens are playing at a significantly higher level than anyone expected and with all their wins, have solidified themselves as a legitimate top 8 team. They are getting it done on the doubles court with a 27-9 overall record, although they have cooled off slightly in recent matches. The fact remains that they can play with anyone in the country and although I often count them out, they are a serious threat to win the SCIAC and the NCAA West regional. I think CMS and Cruz have taken notice, because P-P certainly has my attention. The impressive thing is their consistency. They proved that their Stag-Hen performance was no fluke and they have more quality wins than anyone in the country. I expect the Hens to finish strong and give whoever they play some serious trouble in NCAAs. If they had beaten Kenyon, they would have received an A+.
Grade: A
Kenyon
Key Wins: Chicago, Kalamazoo, Case Western, CMU, Vassar, Whitman, Pomona-Pitzer, CLU
Losses: CMS
Analysis: I'm shocked by how good they are. Look at the underlying story here and you see a team that was ranked 12 lose 4 starters and become #7. If that's not top notch development and coaching, I don't know what is. Kenyon's guys play with so much heart and are motivated every match. They were in slightly over their heads against CMS, but the fact that they have beaten everyone else they've played is impressive, including 2 potential top 10 finishers in Chicago and Pomona-Pitzer. They are the story of the year to me because I thought this team would be decimated. Player To Watch Jeremy Polster is 11-7 playing at the top of the lineup and Coach Thielke is well on his way to a well deserved Coach of the Year award for this. I see Kenyon earning the 5th or 6th overall seed in NCAAs. They could find themselves in their first ever Final 4 with a decent draw.
Grade: A+
Santa Cruz
Key Wins: Trinity (TX) (2), Carnegie Mellon, Swarthmore, Redlands, Trinity (CT), CMS, Williams
Losses: Wash U (2)
Analysis: Although they looked a bit sluggish at Indoors, the young 2011 Slugs are buying into Coach Hansen's motto of growing throughout a season. They've picked up their play significantly and are getting the job done everywhere in the lineup. Brian Pybas hasn't been quite as tough as last year, but I expect him to pick his play up heading to NCAAs. Player To Watch Erich Koenig is 13-6 with most of his losses coming early in the season. I'm impressed with Cruz all around and would not be surprised if they toppled CMS in NCAAs. I think a lot will depend on who gets the homecourt for NCAAs. This is a typical Slugs team that plays great doubles and gets the wins they need in singles. They have a doubles record of 21-9 and I'm most impressed with their 3 through 5 players in singles. Counting out Cruz in any match is a huge mistake and they are proving that this year. I think the losses to Wash U were wakeup calls, but the fact remains they won the biggest match of their regular season against CMS.
Grade: A-
Wash U
Key Wins: NC Wesleyan, Santa Cruz (2), Trinity (TX)
Losses: Emory, CMS, Chicago
Analysis: Wash U is performing about as I expected. I was impressed with their Indoors performance and their other win against Cruz, but other than that they haven't been all that special. Obviously they are 5th in the country which is impressive, but everything seemed to be smooth sailing until that Chicago loss. I can't remember the last time the Bears lost to a team outside the top 10. I thought the top 2 singles spots would be tough for Wash U and they have turned in a record of 7-7 which is pretty good. My overall view is that the Bears are very solid and play at a consistent level. You know what you are going to get from them. To beat Wash U, you either have to bring a ton of energy in doubles or a lights out singles lineup. I think they were overmatched against Emory and CMS and Chicago just played better doubles. I'm interested to see how the Bears respond at the UAA tournament.
Grade: B+
Amherst
Key Wins: Trinity (TX), Redlands, Cal Lutheran, MIT, Vassar, Skidmore
Losses: CMS
Analysis: The Jeffs literally have 14 guys that are legitimate starters on a top team. It's scary. But what matters are the top 6, and that wasn't enough to beat CMS. Austin Chafetz hasn't seen much playing time early in the season, so I'm assuming injuries may be a factor. If he gets to 100%, they are my pick to win nationals no matter what happens the rest of the season. Luis Rattenhuber has been somewhat of a disappointment after a lot of hype, because at the moment it doesn't look like Herst has someone that can win at 1 or a team that can win at 1 dubs. But the story with Amherst will be the same as the past 2 years. They will raise their game in May when NCAAs come around. They are going to raise their game to another level in a month and the question is if everyone else can keep up. Despite being 4 in the country, I still see them as the best team and no one will convince me otherwise. They got their early season loss out of the way and they are on the same path as the past 2 years, except now they have a much stronger team.
Grade: B
CMS
Key Wins: Brandeis, Mary Washington, Swarthmore, Kenyon, Skidmore, Amherst, Trinity (TX), Wash U, Gustavus, Whittier, Cal Lutheran
Losses: Emory, Santa Cruz
Analysis: With wins against 11 quality opponents, it's hard to criticize them, but there have been some chinks in the armor this spring. The Wash U match showed what a difference Robbie Erani can make, because he hasn't seen much action in singles. I believe he makes the singles lineup significantly stronger. The problem I see for CMS is that they are very good everywhere, but they aren't great anywhere. They don't have that automatic win like Emory, and they don't have Brian Pybas to count on for at least a win a match. They have to go out every match and grind, and that wears on you. In the past, I believe fatigue and mental toughness have been issues for them late-season. I was very surprised they lost that Cruz match. CMS always has a good regular season, but I can't really judge them until the season is over. Their NCAA performance will define them, especially since they are playing at home.
Grade: B
Emory
Key Wins: Mary Washington, Carnegie Mellon, Wash U, Redlands, Vassar, Pomona-Pitzer, CMS, Hopkins, DePauw, Denison, Chicago
Losses: None
Analysis: Emory is perfect this year and that's the bottom line. They've rebounded very nicely since last year and head into UAAs as a heavy favorite. As usual, the support is coming from the top of the lineup. Player To Watch Colin Egan is 19-1, and Pottish, Goodwin and Egan are a combined 32-0 in singles play. That is just unstoppable. A lot of these stats get thrown out the window in the heat of the moment at NCAAs, but that's impressive and can't be ignored by Emory's opponents. Everyone knows where Emory is vulnerable and that's doubles, but there's a lot of pressure for the Eagles opponents to win in doubles, because they know they are going to lose if Emory gets ahead. It's a nice luxury to have 2 great players, but taking advantage isn't so easy and Emory has done that perfectly. They should head into NCAAs confident and will obviously be a serious threat to win it.
Grade: A+
Middlebury
Key Wins: Redlands, Gustavus, Cal Lutheran, Brandeis
Losses: None
Analysis: The defending national champs haven't been tested yet, and this isn't a mid-season report for them either. They remain at #1 in the country from last season, but they certainly haven't looked impressive so far. It was good for this young team to play some tough matches, but they don't have a top 15 win on their resume yet and that means they are unpredictable going forward. They took care of business against Redlands, but compare that to what Cruz and Emory were able to do against Redlands. I know better than to count them out in NESCAC play especially since they have had Amherst's number in the past. I can see them finishing anywhere between 1st and 4th in NESCAC play, but as I've said, Midd is Midd and they are always a threat. I really can't make a judgment on them yet, but I am looking forward to regular season matches against the other top NESCAC teams.
Grade: B+
Denison
Key Wins: Carnegie Mellon
Losses: Chicago, Rhodes, Mary Washington, Emory
Analysis: Although Dension got a win on the road against CMU which I'm sure is their program's biggest win in several years, they can't be all that happy with their performance this year. This is a solid team that plays good doubles, but their singles have let them down. They led in doubles against UMW and Chicago and went on to lose 4 of 6 singles matches. 3 of their losses were very winnable and with that they have to be disappointed. I think they will judge their season by how they perform against Kenyon in the next month, but after seeing flashes of brilliance this season from the Big Red, I'm not impressed with their overall performance, highlighted by the Rhodes match.
Grade: C+
Rhodes
Key Wins: UT-Tyler, Denison
Losses: None
Analysis: Rhodes has done what was asked of them and for that they should be praised, but the fact remains that they haven't beaten anyone legitimate. This is a veteran team and I was quite impressed with the Denison win, but the fact remains they are untested. In my opinion, it's easier to get fired up for a couple big matches over the course of a season versus having to play great teams every week. Rhodes benefits from that and I expect them to enter the SCAC tournament with upsets in mind. A potential semifinal against DePauw will define their 2011 season and tell the country how good they really are.
Grade: A-
Mary Washington
Key Wins: Cal Lutheran, W&L, Swarthmore, Denison
Losses: Emory, Trinity (TX), Pomona-Pitzer, Whittier, CMU, Redlands, Bates, CMS
Analysis: Talked a lot about these guys and they are up and down. Player To Watch Sam Wichlin has a record of 7-15 playing at the top spot in both singles and doubles. This is a talented team who isn't meeting their potential and this has been going on for 3 years. They've got a solid top of the lineup and good depth, but can rarely put everything together on the same day. If you take out the California stretch, they aren't terrible, but a loss to Bates at home certainly isn't what I expected. This should be a top 20 team, but it looks like they will finish outside the top 20 for the 2nd year in a row.
Grade: D+
Whitman
Key Wins: Trinity (TX), Swarthmore
Losses: Kenyon, Tyler, Cal Lutheran, Bowdoin
Analysis: I've said it time and time again, this team would be a lot better if they were constantly tested. The talent is there as shown by their win over a top 10 program, but they turned around and lost 2 matches which I thought were very winnable against CLU and Tyler. The fact that they got outplayed by Tyler doesn't give me a ton of confidence in them, and I think they are ranked appropriately at 22. I thought the Trinity match could be a breakthrough, but they were fatigued by the end of their trip which is understandable. At this point, all they can do is sit back and win their conference and then pray that they don't get sent to California. 8-10 in doubles play isn't typical Whitman, but this team has a lot of room to grow.
Grade: B-
Bates
Key Wins: Kalamazoo, Mary Washington
Losses: Hopkins, MIT, Brandeis
Analysis: I said depth was an issue. They are 4-11 at the 4 through 6 singles spots and 1-4 at 3 doubles. You can't be a top 20 team if you only have half a team. I know they had high expectations for this season, but they've lost to 2 teams outside the top 20, including Brandeis who was ranked 30th on Saturday. I think they still have the potential to knock of Trinity (CT) because of the matchup, and like I said preseason, 5th in the NESCAC should be a victory for them. At the moment, this looks a typical Bates season where they expect results and don't get a lot. While they look well on their way to a 4th straight 6th place finish in the NESCAC, they still have time to turn things around.
Grade: C
MIT
Key Wins: Bates
Losses: Amherst
Analysis: Not a whole lot to say as the Engineers play a fairly soft schedule. I thought it was a great win for them to beat Bates, but when they moved to the big leagues they got walloped by Amherst. The match I have circled on my calendar to judge MIT is a date with Bowdoin in a few days. This is winnable for MIT and will show us whether or not they are truly top 20 material. This is a very talented team who will make the tournament through the independent pool, but I don't see them a serious threat to upset a top seed in their region. If they can manage to beat Bowdoin I'd be impressed, but I don't know what to make of this team at the moment.
Grade: B
DePauw
Key Win: Gustavus, Carleton
Losses: Chicago, Emory
Analysis: DePauw hasn't made as much noise as they usually do and this weekend's GLCA tournament will define their season. They don't have a top 25 win on their resume and unless they win GLCA, they won't be a Pool C contender. The Tigers are playing solid doubles with a 9-3 record and 2 of the losses coming to Emory. The story remains that they lost their biggest match of the season and they did after they swept doubles. No doubt this is a dangerous team as they swept Chicago who just swept Wash U. The positive for DePauw is that they have their conference tournament to fall back on if things don't work out. I actually expect a GLCA final appearance from them this weekend, but I don't know if they can take out Kenyon.
Grade: C
Cal Lutheran
Key Wins: Brandeis, Tyler, Whitman
Losses: CMU, UMW, NCW, Kenyon, Amherst, Bowdoin, Williams, Middlebury, CMS
Analysis: I know this isn't how they envisioned their season, but I absolutely commend the Kingsmen for their effort after the adversity they've faced. They could have gone into the tank, but they continue to give top teams trouble. One stat defines this season for the Kingsmen. They are 1-23 at 5 and 6 singles. That's just putting too much pressure on your top guys to win and that's why they don't have a top 20 win on their resume. Player To Watch Ray Worley is playing higher than his comfort zone and is 11-13 overall. I think a victory for CLU would be finishing 3rd in the conference and beating Redlands, but I expect a typical match from CLU, meaning they win at the top and lose 5-4. This is a dangerous team, potentially top 12, with Ballou, but he's not around and they have to deal with things the way they are.
Grade: B-
Carnegie Mellon
Key Wins: Cal Lutheran, W&L, Mary Washington
Losses: Emory, Santa Cruz, Kenyon, Denison, Johns Hopkins
Analysis: Things went downhill quickly. I don't know why it happened, but a 9-0 loss to Hopkins shows me they're done. They came into this season with high hopes coming off a program-best year in 2010, but this team has been terrible the past 6 weeks. I don't believe loss of seniors is an excuse; look at Kenyon. There are no reliable positions each match and they haven't been winning close matches like they usually do. Player To Watch Bobby Mactaggart is 1-15 on the season and he would need a miraculous turnaround to put CMU in the tournament. They're 8-16 in doubles and don't have enough players to dig out of holes every match. I expect a 3rd or 4th place finish from them at GLCA and they are lucky to escape a tricky UAA quarterfinal against Brandeis or Case Western. A promising start has turned into an absolute disaster and I'm not quite sure where to put the blame.
Grade: D
Redlands
Key Wins: Mary Washington, Skidmore, Gustavus Adolphus
Losses: Emory, Santa Cruz, Amherst, Trinity (CT), Williams, Middlebury, Pomona-Pitzer
Analysis: Looks like another mediocre year and NCAA tournament miss for the Bulldogs. I can understand the losses to top teams, but a loss to Trinity (CT) is bad for a team this talented. It looks like the P-P match last Saturday is the first time they showed fight and desperation, but the winning edge they used to have isn't there anymore. They don't have a top 20 win on their resume despite looking like a good team on paper. Player To Watch Anish Nanda is 2-14 on the season. He has been removed from the doubles lineup and demoted to 4 singles. This is not what Redlands needed. They were really expecting a turnaround this year and although it could still come, this seems like another massive disappointment for a team that isn't used to adversity and losing like this.
Grade: D
Chicago
Key Wins: Case Western, Whitewater, Gustavus, Denison, Kzoo, DePauw, Wash U
Losses: Kenyon, Emory
Analysis: Chicago has obviously turned their season around with a win against Wash U and although things looked grim at the beginning with a loss to Kenyon and a near loss to Denison, this team deserves a lot of credit for sticking with it. I expect them to enter the top 10 for the first time in program history when the next rankings are released, and they may very well find themselves in the Final 8 this year. They've put together a doubles record of 13-14 and manage to get contributions from all positions in the singles lineup. This remains a dangerous team who can beat anyone on any day, and if they can turn in a repeat performance against Wash U in a potential UAA semi, the country should be scared and I'll be flat out impressed. It's about time the Maroons stepped up and did something good.
Grade: A-
Bowdoin
Key Wins: Whitman, Skidmore, Cal Lutheran
Losses: Trinity (TX), Pomona-Pitzer
Analysis: Bowdoin has been solid this year. Nothing more and nothing less. They don't have a top 16 win on their resume, but they also have beaten the teams that they were supposed to beat, although I'm sure the Skidmore match was closer than they would have liked. With the emergence of Chicago, Bowdoin may need to make some noise in the NESCAC if they want to qualify for the tournament. 2 years ago, Oscar Pena was one of the best freshmen in the country, however last year's season-long injury clearly set him back, as he has turned in a record of 2-7 so far this spring. If he can find his game and become the elite player that he used to be, I think this team has the ability to rise to the next level. But as is, they don't have enough depth and they are nothing more than solid.
Grade: B
Trinity (CT)
Key Wins: Redlands
Losses: Pomona-Pitzer, Santa Cruz
Analysis: Although I think this team is still vulnerable and they will show it when they play Bates, Brandeis and Bowdoin, so far I can't criticize them because they've taken care of business. They played an unbelievable match against Redlands which was one of the closest matches I've ever seen. That shows me that this team has a ton of heart, unlike some Trinity (CT) teams of the past. On paper, they aren't really a top 15 team, but if they continue to win that's all that matters. I don't expect the Bantams to make the tournament this year with all of the stiff competition that they have, but for the lack of personnel, I think they are doing a great job at the moment.
Grade: B+
Johns Hopkins
Key Wins: Vassar, Bates, Kalamazoo, Carnegie Mellon, Swarthmore
Losses: Emory, NC Wesleyan
Analysis: Hopkins has shown vast improvement over their last couple matches and that's a great sign. They've blown out the teams they were supposed to, and put together great matches against CMU and Emory. The thing that bugs me is the NC Wesleyan match. They just didn't show up for singles, and maybe it's because NCW is in their head, but you just can't do that as a top team. Player To Watch Andy Hersh is 6-2, but has been removed from the doubles lineup. I like this JHU team because I think they have more depth than previous years, and as I've said, it's all mental for them. They will most likely be on the road for NCAAs and face a higher ranked team in the Sweet 16, but they love that underdog role and this could be their breakthrough year.
Grade: B-
NC Wesleyan
Key Wins: Cal Lutheran, Johns Hopkins, Christopher Newport
Losses: Wash U, Trinity (TX)
Analysis: In my opinion, one of the most dangerous teams in the country, as you don't really know what you're going to get. What they have yet to do, is really win a big time match against a great team in a pressure situation. They've proved that they beat Hopkins, but I have a feeling they may need to beat a top notch team to make the Final 8 again. I think this is a much better and more mature team than the one that showed up at Indoors, but we won't see their true colors again until NCAAs. At that point, we'll figure out how much they've grown. If they can get back to the Final 8, that's a fantastic accomplishment, and I definitely think they have the tools to do so. Where they are going to get wins is unpredictable, but the thing I like about this team is they don't really have any weak spots in the singles lineup. If their doubles is on, they will be tough.
Grade: B
Trinity (TX)
Key Wins: Mary Washington, NC Wesleyan, UT-Tyler, Bowdoin, Vassar
Losses: Santa Cruz (2), CMS, Wash U, Whitman, Pomona-Pitzer, Amherst
Analysis: Maybe I overrated Trinity (TX) heading into this season. The end result remains to be seen, but when you look at their current resume, it's not impressive. The fact that they beat NCW and played well at their Texas quad is a good sign, but they lost to Whitman. It's great they tested Wash U and Cruz, but they didn't win, and I hope coming just short isn't the story of the 2011 Trinity Tigers. Player To Watch Max Frey is 13-11, to go along with a team doubles record of 22-14. This is great, but all the teams are a little inconsistent and can't seem to get on the same page in the same day. Their entire lineup has had flashes of brilliance, but when you've lost against every top 10 team you've played and a team outside the top 20, it's hard to consider yourself a true national title contender. I expect them to win the conference and be dangerous in NCAAs, and for the sake of making me look good, I hope they make a Final 4 run.
Grade: C+
Williams
Key Wins: Redlands, Cal Lutheran
Losses: Pomona-Pitzer, Santa Cruz
Analysis: This isn't really a midseason report because the Ephs haven't played a ton. They define their season by NESCAC success, and I think they have a legitimate shot to get 2nd in NESCAC this year. They aren't a fantastic team as shown by their California losses, but they are a solid 9 or 10 in the country and will be a contender for a Final 8 spot depending on their NCAA regional. I've said before that this is the youngest team in the country, and that can show at times. Player To Watch Felix Sun is 5-3 so far, and the Ephs will need him to be an on court leader if they want success this year. The real tests for Williams will be against Bowdoin, Amherst and Middlebury and if they find themselves in the NESCAC title match and the Final 8 of NCAAs, that's a great accomplishment. If they don't, and miss the Final 8 2 years in a row, it could be a sign that the program is slipping. It's a thin line between success and failure for Williams right now.
Grade: B
Pomona-Pitzer
Key Wins: Whittier, Brandeis, Mary Washington, Trinity (TX), Tyler, Bowdoin, Skidmore, Trinity (CT), Williams, Redlands
Losses: Emory, Kenyon
Analysis: Their resume speaks for itself. Along with Kenyon, they are the biggest surprise of the year. The Hens are playing at a significantly higher level than anyone expected and with all their wins, have solidified themselves as a legitimate top 8 team. They are getting it done on the doubles court with a 27-9 overall record, although they have cooled off slightly in recent matches. The fact remains that they can play with anyone in the country and although I often count them out, they are a serious threat to win the SCIAC and the NCAA West regional. I think CMS and Cruz have taken notice, because P-P certainly has my attention. The impressive thing is their consistency. They proved that their Stag-Hen performance was no fluke and they have more quality wins than anyone in the country. I expect the Hens to finish strong and give whoever they play some serious trouble in NCAAs. If they had beaten Kenyon, they would have received an A+.
Grade: A
Kenyon
Key Wins: Chicago, Kalamazoo, Case Western, CMU, Vassar, Whitman, Pomona-Pitzer, CLU
Losses: CMS
Analysis: I'm shocked by how good they are. Look at the underlying story here and you see a team that was ranked 12 lose 4 starters and become #7. If that's not top notch development and coaching, I don't know what is. Kenyon's guys play with so much heart and are motivated every match. They were in slightly over their heads against CMS, but the fact that they have beaten everyone else they've played is impressive, including 2 potential top 10 finishers in Chicago and Pomona-Pitzer. They are the story of the year to me because I thought this team would be decimated. Player To Watch Jeremy Polster is 11-7 playing at the top of the lineup and Coach Thielke is well on his way to a well deserved Coach of the Year award for this. I see Kenyon earning the 5th or 6th overall seed in NCAAs. They could find themselves in their first ever Final 4 with a decent draw.
Grade: A+
Santa Cruz
Key Wins: Trinity (TX) (2), Carnegie Mellon, Swarthmore, Redlands, Trinity (CT), CMS, Williams
Losses: Wash U (2)
Analysis: Although they looked a bit sluggish at Indoors, the young 2011 Slugs are buying into Coach Hansen's motto of growing throughout a season. They've picked up their play significantly and are getting the job done everywhere in the lineup. Brian Pybas hasn't been quite as tough as last year, but I expect him to pick his play up heading to NCAAs. Player To Watch Erich Koenig is 13-6 with most of his losses coming early in the season. I'm impressed with Cruz all around and would not be surprised if they toppled CMS in NCAAs. I think a lot will depend on who gets the homecourt for NCAAs. This is a typical Slugs team that plays great doubles and gets the wins they need in singles. They have a doubles record of 21-9 and I'm most impressed with their 3 through 5 players in singles. Counting out Cruz in any match is a huge mistake and they are proving that this year. I think the losses to Wash U were wakeup calls, but the fact remains they won the biggest match of their regular season against CMS.
Grade: A-
Wash U
Key Wins: NC Wesleyan, Santa Cruz (2), Trinity (TX)
Losses: Emory, CMS, Chicago
Analysis: Wash U is performing about as I expected. I was impressed with their Indoors performance and their other win against Cruz, but other than that they haven't been all that special. Obviously they are 5th in the country which is impressive, but everything seemed to be smooth sailing until that Chicago loss. I can't remember the last time the Bears lost to a team outside the top 10. I thought the top 2 singles spots would be tough for Wash U and they have turned in a record of 7-7 which is pretty good. My overall view is that the Bears are very solid and play at a consistent level. You know what you are going to get from them. To beat Wash U, you either have to bring a ton of energy in doubles or a lights out singles lineup. I think they were overmatched against Emory and CMS and Chicago just played better doubles. I'm interested to see how the Bears respond at the UAA tournament.
Grade: B+
Amherst
Key Wins: Trinity (TX), Redlands, Cal Lutheran, MIT, Vassar, Skidmore
Losses: CMS
Analysis: The Jeffs literally have 14 guys that are legitimate starters on a top team. It's scary. But what matters are the top 6, and that wasn't enough to beat CMS. Austin Chafetz hasn't seen much playing time early in the season, so I'm assuming injuries may be a factor. If he gets to 100%, they are my pick to win nationals no matter what happens the rest of the season. Luis Rattenhuber has been somewhat of a disappointment after a lot of hype, because at the moment it doesn't look like Herst has someone that can win at 1 or a team that can win at 1 dubs. But the story with Amherst will be the same as the past 2 years. They will raise their game in May when NCAAs come around. They are going to raise their game to another level in a month and the question is if everyone else can keep up. Despite being 4 in the country, I still see them as the best team and no one will convince me otherwise. They got their early season loss out of the way and they are on the same path as the past 2 years, except now they have a much stronger team.
Grade: B
CMS
Key Wins: Brandeis, Mary Washington, Swarthmore, Kenyon, Skidmore, Amherst, Trinity (TX), Wash U, Gustavus, Whittier, Cal Lutheran
Losses: Emory, Santa Cruz
Analysis: With wins against 11 quality opponents, it's hard to criticize them, but there have been some chinks in the armor this spring. The Wash U match showed what a difference Robbie Erani can make, because he hasn't seen much action in singles. I believe he makes the singles lineup significantly stronger. The problem I see for CMS is that they are very good everywhere, but they aren't great anywhere. They don't have that automatic win like Emory, and they don't have Brian Pybas to count on for at least a win a match. They have to go out every match and grind, and that wears on you. In the past, I believe fatigue and mental toughness have been issues for them late-season. I was very surprised they lost that Cruz match. CMS always has a good regular season, but I can't really judge them until the season is over. Their NCAA performance will define them, especially since they are playing at home.
Grade: B
Emory
Key Wins: Mary Washington, Carnegie Mellon, Wash U, Redlands, Vassar, Pomona-Pitzer, CMS, Hopkins, DePauw, Denison, Chicago
Losses: None
Analysis: Emory is perfect this year and that's the bottom line. They've rebounded very nicely since last year and head into UAAs as a heavy favorite. As usual, the support is coming from the top of the lineup. Player To Watch Colin Egan is 19-1, and Pottish, Goodwin and Egan are a combined 32-0 in singles play. That is just unstoppable. A lot of these stats get thrown out the window in the heat of the moment at NCAAs, but that's impressive and can't be ignored by Emory's opponents. Everyone knows where Emory is vulnerable and that's doubles, but there's a lot of pressure for the Eagles opponents to win in doubles, because they know they are going to lose if Emory gets ahead. It's a nice luxury to have 2 great players, but taking advantage isn't so easy and Emory has done that perfectly. They should head into NCAAs confident and will obviously be a serious threat to win it.
Grade: A+
Middlebury
Key Wins: Redlands, Gustavus, Cal Lutheran, Brandeis
Losses: None
Analysis: The defending national champs haven't been tested yet, and this isn't a mid-season report for them either. They remain at #1 in the country from last season, but they certainly haven't looked impressive so far. It was good for this young team to play some tough matches, but they don't have a top 15 win on their resume yet and that means they are unpredictable going forward. They took care of business against Redlands, but compare that to what Cruz and Emory were able to do against Redlands. I know better than to count them out in NESCAC play especially since they have had Amherst's number in the past. I can see them finishing anywhere between 1st and 4th in NESCAC play, but as I've said, Midd is Midd and they are always a threat. I really can't make a judgment on them yet, but I am looking forward to regular season matches against the other top NESCAC teams.
Grade: B+
Sunday, April 3, 2011
Weekend Recap and the Next Few Days
Before I get into Saturday's results, today in Baltimore Hopkins beat Carnegie Mellon 9-0. This was most likely a little bit of CMU being terrible and Hopkins being tough. The doubles were not close and clearly set the tone for the match, although there were a few close singles matches. For a real rivalry match, this was disappointing. Concerning Hopkins, they seem to have rebounded nicely after their loss to NCW. The bad news for the Blue Jays is that the NCAA regional top seed isn't coming this year. They don't have any top 20 teams on the remainder of their schedule, so they have to hope for a nice regional. I could see a potential Sweet 16 match between them and Williams, but it's really too early to tell. They aren't in a great spot, but to their benefit, I think they will go into NCAAs somewhat unnoticed and they could sneak up on a top 10 opponent on the right day. Carnegie continues to disappoint. I made a statement in their season preview that they are going to prove that you have to recruit every year or you'll fall off. That is certainly proving true. While they still have opportunities on their schedule that would put them in NCAAs, they have shown nothing post-Indoors to prove that they are a top 20 team, let alone a potential Pool C qualifier. Final 8 to missing the tournament is not good, and this embarrassing loss may have put the icing on the cake for this lost season.
A quick note on a Saturday match, Brandeis finally got a win against a ranked opponent and upset Bates in a 6-3 win. The Judges looked tough in this and I think they could be dangerous against some of the top NESCAC teams as well as in the UAA tournament. Bates needs to rebound, because I still they have a shot to beat Trinity (CT), which would be a big win for them. Really good win for Brandeis and it's good to see them meeting their potential this year. Next up on Saturday, Pomona-Pitzer hung on and beat Redlands in another thriller for the Hens. Both of these teams have played some very close matches this season and this was no exception. The difference is the Hens have had that mental toughness and winning edge, whereas Redlands hasn't. PP has been so tough in close matches all season, you could just sense they were going to pull this out even after a 2-1 deficit in doubles. Another great win for PP; this has to be the first time in a while that they've beaten Redlands. I would expect these 2 to meet again in the SCIAC semifinal in a couple week, but both need to put their attention on the other conference foes in front of them. PP is safely in the tournament and the Bulldogs are certainly on the outside looking in after Chicago's win against Wash U.
Wash U never comes into a match unprepared. I believe this is no exception. Chicago just beat them. Marty Perry, and the rest of the country for that matter, have been waiting for this result for the past 4 years. I don't believe Chicago has ever beaten a team in the top 10, and to do it against Wash U is a fantastic accomplishment. The flip side is that I can't remember the last time Wash U lost to a team outside the top 10. The Maroons had been struggling with doubles all season, and finally they came to life at the right time and jumped on a Wash U team who just wasn't ready for the level that Chicago brought. Their talent finally showed, and they managed to get the 2 singles wins they needed for the win. Looking at Chicago's overall resume, it's actually quite impressive. Their only losses are to Emory and Kenyon, and at the moment, I see them at 8 or 9 in the country, which not only puts them in the tournament, but puts them in line to be a top seed in their NCAA regional. Now, it looks to me like 5 Pool C spots could be filled, leaving only 1 spot for several teams. This win kind of shifts the power away from the NESCAC, as they don't really control their own destiny anymore. I'll be interested to see what the UAA seeding looks like, because there's a massive difference between the 2 and 3 seed. 2 gets an easy match against NYU, whereas 3 most likely has to play a very dangerous Brandeis team, who also happens to be hosting the tournament. Wash U has to be a little shocked, but there's nothing to worry about for them. I don't see their ranking being hurt by this, and everyone still knows they are a great team. This will probably make them hungrier heading into the last third of their season, and I'm really looking forward to a potential UAA semifinal rematch between these 2. Chicago has the opportunity to derail a 6th straight Emory-Wash U UAA final, but I'm sure the Bears have other ideas.
This is a slow week, so Monday and Tuesday I'll be doing mid-season report cards for the top 25 teams. I'll try to knock off 13-25 Monday and 1-12 Tuesday. For Wednesday, I'm going to make an attempt at a first issue of bracketology, and on Thursday, I'll have a preview of the weekend. I've been focusing a lot on big picture stuff and NCAAs the last few weeks, but for these midseason report, I'll try to piece together some interesting statistics and look at where each team is strong and weak.
A quick note on a Saturday match, Brandeis finally got a win against a ranked opponent and upset Bates in a 6-3 win. The Judges looked tough in this and I think they could be dangerous against some of the top NESCAC teams as well as in the UAA tournament. Bates needs to rebound, because I still they have a shot to beat Trinity (CT), which would be a big win for them. Really good win for Brandeis and it's good to see them meeting their potential this year. Next up on Saturday, Pomona-Pitzer hung on and beat Redlands in another thriller for the Hens. Both of these teams have played some very close matches this season and this was no exception. The difference is the Hens have had that mental toughness and winning edge, whereas Redlands hasn't. PP has been so tough in close matches all season, you could just sense they were going to pull this out even after a 2-1 deficit in doubles. Another great win for PP; this has to be the first time in a while that they've beaten Redlands. I would expect these 2 to meet again in the SCIAC semifinal in a couple week, but both need to put their attention on the other conference foes in front of them. PP is safely in the tournament and the Bulldogs are certainly on the outside looking in after Chicago's win against Wash U.
Wash U never comes into a match unprepared. I believe this is no exception. Chicago just beat them. Marty Perry, and the rest of the country for that matter, have been waiting for this result for the past 4 years. I don't believe Chicago has ever beaten a team in the top 10, and to do it against Wash U is a fantastic accomplishment. The flip side is that I can't remember the last time Wash U lost to a team outside the top 10. The Maroons had been struggling with doubles all season, and finally they came to life at the right time and jumped on a Wash U team who just wasn't ready for the level that Chicago brought. Their talent finally showed, and they managed to get the 2 singles wins they needed for the win. Looking at Chicago's overall resume, it's actually quite impressive. Their only losses are to Emory and Kenyon, and at the moment, I see them at 8 or 9 in the country, which not only puts them in the tournament, but puts them in line to be a top seed in their NCAA regional. Now, it looks to me like 5 Pool C spots could be filled, leaving only 1 spot for several teams. This win kind of shifts the power away from the NESCAC, as they don't really control their own destiny anymore. I'll be interested to see what the UAA seeding looks like, because there's a massive difference between the 2 and 3 seed. 2 gets an easy match against NYU, whereas 3 most likely has to play a very dangerous Brandeis team, who also happens to be hosting the tournament. Wash U has to be a little shocked, but there's nothing to worry about for them. I don't see their ranking being hurt by this, and everyone still knows they are a great team. This will probably make them hungrier heading into the last third of their season, and I'm really looking forward to a potential UAA semifinal rematch between these 2. Chicago has the opportunity to derail a 6th straight Emory-Wash U UAA final, but I'm sure the Bears have other ideas.
This is a slow week, so Monday and Tuesday I'll be doing mid-season report cards for the top 25 teams. I'll try to knock off 13-25 Monday and 1-12 Tuesday. For Wednesday, I'm going to make an attempt at a first issue of bracketology, and on Thursday, I'll have a preview of the weekend. I've been focusing a lot on big picture stuff and NCAAs the last few weeks, but for these midseason report, I'll try to piece together some interesting statistics and look at where each team is strong and weak.
Saturday, April 2, 2011
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Results Update/ITA Rankings
Not a ton has happened this week. Only 2 things worth discussing in my opinion, the first of which is the beginning of Midd's season, and secondly Cruz blasting Williams today. Midd has looked far from impressive, but with the exception of last year's national championship team, they are rarely good in California. They didn't schedule CMS or Pomona-Pitzer and they got lucky there, but they had solid wins against Redlands and Cal Lu. They played great doubles against CLU and great singles against Redlands, so they are clearly a well rounded team. They will be tested next weekend against Trinity (CT) who's currently sitting at a respectable 13 in the country. Midd passed the early part of their schedule, but I wouldn't say they did it with ease.
The Slugs are looking tough. They came in today's rankings at #6, which I personally thought was low, but they are playing as well as anyone in the country right now. Williams has been playing good tennis in California so far and Cruz just took them to school in doubles. They are off D3 play for 2 weeks until they play Pomona-Pitzer, but I'm worrying a little bit if I'm CMS. Not only do they have to beat Cruz, they may have to do it on the road. That will be quite a debate among the committee as to who hosts the West region, but like I said before, I endorse Cruz because of the head to head win. The Slugs have turned it on since Indoors and I'm anxious to see how they finish because they've pulled this before where they start slow and sneak up on everyone and win a national title. They have the mental edge on CMS after Texas. Barring any weird upsets, Williams is in a really good spot as they currently hold the spot at the 7th #1 seed for NCAA regionals. I don't see Trinity (TX), NCW or Hopkins passing them, so as long as they go back home and manage wins against Bowdoin, Bates and Trinity (CT), they should head into NCAAs in a great spot.
Rankings were released today and I have no complaints again. If anything, I think Cruz may be a bit low, but I'm not sure how I would redo 3 through 6 to make it better. Cruz did lose to Wash U twice. Herst hasn't beaten anyone, but they haven't been playing for very long and only lost to CMS on the road.
Pool C looks like:
Wash U
NESCAC 2
Pomona-Pitzer
Williams
Those 4 seem like locks at this point. Of course this is barring any crazy upsets. After them you have, in order:
Trinity CT
Bowdoin
Chicago
Redlands
Carnegie
CLU
DePauw
Only 2 spots available for those 7. Trinity and Bowdoin are in great shape because they are protected from out of conference competition. As long as they both manage wins against Bates and MIT, all they need to do is root against the teams below them. Chicago has Wash U this weekend and then probably again in the UAA semi. I don't know if they need to win one of those or not, too early to tell. Chicago most likely takes on CMU in UAA 3rd place, and I don't know if a win over the Tartans would be enough to have them jump one of the NESCACs (obviously a lot depends on how the NESCACs finish also). That will be an interesting scenario, but Chicago could make life a lot easier with a win against Wash U, which I think is doable for them. Redlands needs to beat Pomona-Pitzer. Either this weekend or in SCIAC tournament. They have no other way out. Not enough teams will fold for the Bulldogs to make it. I think CMU is the wildcard in all of this. This is a great team that had a bad loss. They've got Hopkins on Sunday and will play DePauw and possibly Kenyon next weekend. I think they've got to beat either Hopkins or Kenyon if they want to make the tournament, and beating Chicago is a must. I don't think a win against DePauw and then a win against Chicago does it for them. Hopkins and Kenyon are 2 teams they beat last year, so anything is possible. It would be a shame to see them miss the tournament after their great season last year.
In my opinion, only 3 real matches of note this weekend, all of which I've touched on. The first is Chicago @ Wash U. I got an email today that this is a USTA Kids Day, where local kids come and watch a college match. I wonder if this will cause Chicago tone down their on-court antics, although I doubt it. Also on Saturday, a huge match out West between Pomona-Pitzer and Redlands. Pool C teams have to be cheering hard for the Hens in this so the Bulldogs don't become a factor in Pool C. I know Ben Belletto has been aching to beat Redlands for years now, so I expect his guys to be ready for this big rivalry match. The Bulldogs are going through the motions and time is running out for them. This is their time to make something happen. A win like this could salvage a rough season to date so I expect Redlands to bring their A game. Lastly, Carnegie travels to Hopkins on Sunday in one of my preseason matches to watch. I like Hopkins in this, but it could get interesting since this is a heated rivalry. JHU hasn't done much this year and CMU has to be somewhat desperate at this point. JHU is probably playing for a nice NCAA region whereas the Tartans are playing for their tournament life. This win could put CMU right back in the heart of the Pool C picture.
The Slugs are looking tough. They came in today's rankings at #6, which I personally thought was low, but they are playing as well as anyone in the country right now. Williams has been playing good tennis in California so far and Cruz just took them to school in doubles. They are off D3 play for 2 weeks until they play Pomona-Pitzer, but I'm worrying a little bit if I'm CMS. Not only do they have to beat Cruz, they may have to do it on the road. That will be quite a debate among the committee as to who hosts the West region, but like I said before, I endorse Cruz because of the head to head win. The Slugs have turned it on since Indoors and I'm anxious to see how they finish because they've pulled this before where they start slow and sneak up on everyone and win a national title. They have the mental edge on CMS after Texas. Barring any weird upsets, Williams is in a really good spot as they currently hold the spot at the 7th #1 seed for NCAA regionals. I don't see Trinity (TX), NCW or Hopkins passing them, so as long as they go back home and manage wins against Bowdoin, Bates and Trinity (CT), they should head into NCAAs in a great spot.
Rankings were released today and I have no complaints again. If anything, I think Cruz may be a bit low, but I'm not sure how I would redo 3 through 6 to make it better. Cruz did lose to Wash U twice. Herst hasn't beaten anyone, but they haven't been playing for very long and only lost to CMS on the road.
Pool C looks like:
Wash U
NESCAC 2
Pomona-Pitzer
Williams
Those 4 seem like locks at this point. Of course this is barring any crazy upsets. After them you have, in order:
Trinity CT
Bowdoin
Chicago
Redlands
Carnegie
CLU
DePauw
Only 2 spots available for those 7. Trinity and Bowdoin are in great shape because they are protected from out of conference competition. As long as they both manage wins against Bates and MIT, all they need to do is root against the teams below them. Chicago has Wash U this weekend and then probably again in the UAA semi. I don't know if they need to win one of those or not, too early to tell. Chicago most likely takes on CMU in UAA 3rd place, and I don't know if a win over the Tartans would be enough to have them jump one of the NESCACs (obviously a lot depends on how the NESCACs finish also). That will be an interesting scenario, but Chicago could make life a lot easier with a win against Wash U, which I think is doable for them. Redlands needs to beat Pomona-Pitzer. Either this weekend or in SCIAC tournament. They have no other way out. Not enough teams will fold for the Bulldogs to make it. I think CMU is the wildcard in all of this. This is a great team that had a bad loss. They've got Hopkins on Sunday and will play DePauw and possibly Kenyon next weekend. I think they've got to beat either Hopkins or Kenyon if they want to make the tournament, and beating Chicago is a must. I don't think a win against DePauw and then a win against Chicago does it for them. Hopkins and Kenyon are 2 teams they beat last year, so anything is possible. It would be a shame to see them miss the tournament after their great season last year.
In my opinion, only 3 real matches of note this weekend, all of which I've touched on. The first is Chicago @ Wash U. I got an email today that this is a USTA Kids Day, where local kids come and watch a college match. I wonder if this will cause Chicago tone down their on-court antics, although I doubt it. Also on Saturday, a huge match out West between Pomona-Pitzer and Redlands. Pool C teams have to be cheering hard for the Hens in this so the Bulldogs don't become a factor in Pool C. I know Ben Belletto has been aching to beat Redlands for years now, so I expect his guys to be ready for this big rivalry match. The Bulldogs are going through the motions and time is running out for them. This is their time to make something happen. A win like this could salvage a rough season to date so I expect Redlands to bring their A game. Lastly, Carnegie travels to Hopkins on Sunday in one of my preseason matches to watch. I like Hopkins in this, but it could get interesting since this is a heated rivalry. JHU hasn't done much this year and CMU has to be somewhat desperate at this point. JHU is probably playing for a nice NCAA region whereas the Tartans are playing for their tournament life. This win could put CMU right back in the heart of the Pool C picture.
Recruiting Update and Thoughts on Coaching
D3 has been getting an increased amount of attention lately and I believe a lot of higher ranked players are considering it as an option. The past 2 days, tennisrecruiting.net has ran 2 articles about current high school seniors who have committed to play D3.
Colette Lewis talks to Jonathan Cypers about Amherst
Rhiannon Potkey talks to Warren Wood about CMS
I think Wood's article in particular touches on the best parts of D3. You can't be concerned about status and bragging to your friends about D1. Play a high level of tennis where you can be a top player and compete for a national title instead. Another note is that 5-star Johnny Wang has signed with Carnegie Mellon next year, joining Wood as the only 5-stars to be entering D3 this year. Wang will be a good addition to a team that's losing 2 key seniors.
On the coaching forefront, I was informed last night that Luther head coach Brian Huinker will be stepping down after 10 seasons as head coach. He will be going into consulting. Coaching is something that I probably don't give enough attention to. My view is that a bad coach can't destroy a talented team, but a good coach can make a huge difference. Huinker built a solid program at Luther and I would hope they go after a big name coach to replace him. At a school like Luther, I feel like you need a name that will catch the attention of junior players, because there's not much appeal academically or location-wise. Luther is most known for their NCAA Sweet 16 appearance in 2009 and could be a sought after job because the base is there to turn this into a consistent top 25 program. It's not necessarily a bad thing if you hire a coach who won't be there in 5 years because that probably means he took your program, made it better, and moved to bigger things. That's how college coaching works. In D3 tennis, coaches don't exactly get forced out if they don't win, although I find it distressing that there are academically good schools that could have great tennis teams and they just have coaches that don't care. Look at Case Western, that team has done a 360 in the past couple years and it's purely because of a coach. I think it's terrible that someone can just go to work and collect a paycheck and not care about winning when they are sitting on a goldmine. Just as a general trend the next couple years, I expect to see a lot of D3 coaching vacancies filled with D1 assistants. Other schools have to see Chris Garner at Amherst and think that may work for them. While I don't expect Luther to steal someone from Ohio State, I would expect them to potentially look at assistants in the bottom half of the Big 10 or possibly the MAC to try to fill their vacancy. I personally think that's their best bet and the alternative would be to go after a high level player who just finished college and wants to get into coaching. I'll be interested to see what they come up with, but the bottom line is as D3 gets better, the level of coaching also needs to improve.
Colette Lewis talks to Jonathan Cypers about Amherst
Rhiannon Potkey talks to Warren Wood about CMS
I think Wood's article in particular touches on the best parts of D3. You can't be concerned about status and bragging to your friends about D1. Play a high level of tennis where you can be a top player and compete for a national title instead. Another note is that 5-star Johnny Wang has signed with Carnegie Mellon next year, joining Wood as the only 5-stars to be entering D3 this year. Wang will be a good addition to a team that's losing 2 key seniors.
On the coaching forefront, I was informed last night that Luther head coach Brian Huinker will be stepping down after 10 seasons as head coach. He will be going into consulting. Coaching is something that I probably don't give enough attention to. My view is that a bad coach can't destroy a talented team, but a good coach can make a huge difference. Huinker built a solid program at Luther and I would hope they go after a big name coach to replace him. At a school like Luther, I feel like you need a name that will catch the attention of junior players, because there's not much appeal academically or location-wise. Luther is most known for their NCAA Sweet 16 appearance in 2009 and could be a sought after job because the base is there to turn this into a consistent top 25 program. It's not necessarily a bad thing if you hire a coach who won't be there in 5 years because that probably means he took your program, made it better, and moved to bigger things. That's how college coaching works. In D3 tennis, coaches don't exactly get forced out if they don't win, although I find it distressing that there are academically good schools that could have great tennis teams and they just have coaches that don't care. Look at Case Western, that team has done a 360 in the past couple years and it's purely because of a coach. I think it's terrible that someone can just go to work and collect a paycheck and not care about winning when they are sitting on a goldmine. Just as a general trend the next couple years, I expect to see a lot of D3 coaching vacancies filled with D1 assistants. Other schools have to see Chris Garner at Amherst and think that may work for them. While I don't expect Luther to steal someone from Ohio State, I would expect them to potentially look at assistants in the bottom half of the Big 10 or possibly the MAC to try to fill their vacancy. I personally think that's their best bet and the alternative would be to go after a high level player who just finished college and wants to get into coaching. I'll be interested to see what they come up with, but the bottom line is as D3 gets better, the level of coaching also needs to improve.
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