Update On...Things

Not too much has happened the past few weeks as far as shake-ups on the national scene, but I want to look at a few potential scenarios concerning Pool C and NCAA seeding. First of all, the oft talked about Pool C has become quite clear at this point. Wash U, Chicago, Pomona-Pitzer and the NESCAC 2 and 3 are all but locks. The NESCAC 2 and 3 will most likely be some combination of Williams, Herst and Midd. The 6th spot still remains and in my mind there are 3 contenders, 2 of which have a large leg up. The team sitting in a distant 3rd place for that spot is Redlands. The Bulldogs are still alive because they have a winnable match in their conference tournament this weekend in a probable semifinal against Pomona-Pitzer. Just a few weeks ago, Redlands had the Hens on the ropes in a match they should have won. I don't think there's much doubt as to who will win the SCIAC tournament after seeing what CMS did to PP last weekend. PP isn't really playing for anything because they've locked up a spot in the tournament and there's a 99.9% chance they will just stay in the West for regionals with Cruz and CMS. They can't really help themselves at all. Same story goes for Cal Lu...too many losses, their NCAA hopes are gone. However, this tournament is extremely significant for Redlands. I don't know if people are nerds like me and read the season previews published on school's websites, but I revisited the Redlands 2011 preview and enjoyed some of Coach Roche's quotes about this season. The goals he laid out for the team are getting back to NCAAs, winning the conference and finishing top 10 in the country. They are so far from those it's a joke. They made the tournament 17 consecutive years and they are about to miss for the 2nd consecutive year. That's just bad. They have all the tools to be a great team with talented young players, senior leadership and good coaching, but they are so mentally weak and can't win any close matches. On paper this is a top 12 team but the intangibles are missing.

The interesting thing is, even if Redlands beats Pomona-Pitzer, I don't think they are a lock for the tournament, they just keep their hopes alive. That's because they lost to Trinity (CT), a team they are competing against. One thing we know is Redlands has to win, so let's see that happen first and then we can discuss scenarios.

Williams has a huge weekend. They play Bowdoin and Middlebury. The thing is I don't know if the Ephs can really help themselves because they lost to Pomona-Pitzer, currently ranked 8th. Midd is #1 in the country, but that is still because of last year, so if Williams beats Midd, we are looking at the Panthers moving down to #10 in the country and Williams staying where they are. For Midd to run the table, they will need to win against Williams, beat Amherst next weekend and then win the NESCAC tournament. That's no easy task and frankly I don't think anyone besides themselves expects them to do it. Their best win to date was against a shorthanded Bowdoin team, so this Williams match will show us if they are for real. This is a massive match for Midd because of NCAA seedings and a potential region. Right now things look like this...

Midd
Emory
CMS/Cruz
Herst
Wash U
Kenyon
Chicago
Williams

Things could look like this if Williams wins...

Emory
CMS/Cruz
Herst
Wash U
Kenyon
Chicago
Williams
Midd

With that 8th seed, most likely going to be Midd or Williams, probably comes NCW on a neutral court in the Sweet 16. Probably at TCNJ, that's no easy match after seeing NCW this season. Whoever finishes 2nd in the NESCAC most likely gets to remain at home for NCAAs and will have a Sweet 16 against whoever makes the tournament between Bowdoin and Trinity (CT) (barring a win from Redlands as previously discussed). That is significantly easier than traveling to take on NCW. Plus, whoever gets that 8th overall seed is in line to play a pretty much untouchable Emory, with the Eagles Pottish-Goodwin-Egan combo extending their singles record to 37-0 combined after this past weekend.

Let's say Midd beats Williams but loses to Amherst...

Emory
CMS/Cruz
Herst
Midd
Wash U
Kenyon
Chicago
Williams

Much nicer for Middlebury once again. So as I've explained, a huge weekend for Midd and Williams. Another note is on a wildcard here and that's Bowdoin. The Polar Bears have been playing without 2 starters the second half of the season and they could be dangerous if they get back to full strength.