Sunday, April 20, 2008

A discussion on the upcoming week and it's effect on NCAAs

We have some very crucial conference tournaments coming up. Mary Washington, CNU, Washington & Lee, UT-Tyler, Whitman and CMS all clinched berths to the tournament this weekend. A lot of the At-Large teams can breath easier after Salisbury lost.

The At-Large situation is very intriguing. 2 NESCACs, Redlands and Emory should be locks. Right now Carnegie Mellon sits at #5, they are almost a lock. Bowdoin and Amherst are sitting at #6 and #7. DePauw really has its back against the wall. Bowdoin will play Amherst in the first round of NESCAC. If Bowdoin wins, they get the #6 spot and Amherst take the #7 spot because of their direct win over DePauw, so DePauw is out. If Amherst wins, they get the #6 spot and Bowdoin and DePauw fight for the #7 spot. Bowdoin probably has the edge here as well. DePauw really needs to win their conference tournament to make NCAAs and this is quite a task because they have the #1 team in the nation to beat. All of this could become more complicated if Chicago beats WashU. A Chicago win over Carnegie Mellon probably wouldn't do enough to get them in the tournament because of Chicago's 7-2 loss to DePauw. The Maroons really need to beat WashU to make the tournament.

Santa Cruz will most likely host CMS in California. Redlands will be the 3 seed and this is by far the toughest region. With DePauw out in the Midwest, WashU could have an easy road to Bates. Trinity(CT) has stole the final #1 seed from Kenyon for the time being. It will be very hard for the Bantams to lose this, even if they lose to Midd or Williams in NESCACS. I would expect that Trinity(CT) will be sent down to the Mid-Atlantic somewhere if both Bowdoin and Amherst make it. Trinity(TX) and Emory will probably be sent to the Mid-Atlantic as well. Bracketology coming soon.